Trump's Cabinet and Other Key Picks

 I'm not going to go through all of his announced selections but just the more interesting ones.

White House chief of staff: Susie Wiles - I suppose he figures that if she could get him elected then she can keep his staff toeing the line and doing nothing but sing little Donnie's praises. Good luck with that lady. Senate confirmation is not required for this role.

Secretary of state: Marco Rubio - Not a bad pick considering he's a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee. However, I just wonder if he lacks the flexibility that he might need as top diplomat.

Attorney general: Matt Gaetz - This is a complete joke. Gaetz should be under investigation by the DOJ and not leading it. This is a nominee that the senate should reject. Unfortunately I doubt there are enough Republicans that care enough about the country to make it happen.

HHS secretary: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - This is another complete joke that should be rejected by the senate. Kennedy has no background in health administration and espouses long debunked conspiracy theories about vaccines. I don't disagree with some of his ideas about processed foods but in general his opinions are loony tunes if not downright dangerous.

U.N. ambassador: Elise Stefanik - I thought that this was a horrible idea until I heard some of the other proposals. I could probably live with this as the UN is rapidly becoming totally ineffective anyway.

"Border czar": Tom Homan - This guy is a former ICE Director and appears to be all for Trump's mass deportation idea. Good luck getting the funding from Congress Tom. I expect the deportation effort to be significantly less than "mass" and quietly peter out within a year and a half. Senate confirmation is not required for this role.

Defense secretary: Pete Hegseth - Another selection who's qualifications appear to be highly suspect but I don't know enough about the guy to take a strong position either way. What I've been hearing isn't terribly encouraging though.

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem - She's the current governor of South Dakota and Trump claims that she's "very strong on border security." That's a pretty good trick considering that South Dakota doesn't have any foreign borders. On the other hand if she can handle being a governor then I'm sure she can manage Homeland Security.

Director of national intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard - This pick may be even worse than the Gaetz and Kennedy picks. Gabbard has zero credentials in intelligence and many of her ideas about how the world works are iffy if not downright delusional. If there is only one nomination that the senate rejects it should be this one.

 U.S. ambassador to Israel: Mike Huckabee - The best part about this pick is that it will get Huckabee out of the country. The Israelis must be laughing themselves silly.

Department of Government Efficiency: Elon Musk & Vivek Ramaswamy - Or DOGE, the same as the crypto currency that Musk pushes. I expect this to be a joke with clown 1 and clown 2 doing a lot of pontificating but accomplishing very little. I'm pretty sure that no senate confirmation is required here.

That's it; I'm tired of playing this game. Trump seems more interested in not having someone disagree with him than actually accomplishing anything. But, you never know. I suppose that we shall see what we shall see.

One Good Thing

Kari Lake lost the senate race in Arizona. That is one good thing that came out of this election.

May we never hear from that crazy again.

Does Gen Z Have it Tougher than We Did?

 The short answer is yes, I think they certainly have it harder than us Boomers had it. Part of that is beyond their control and part of it is being seduced by Madison Avenue.

The minefield was certainly less dense back in my day. 

I graduated college in 1969 from the City University of New York. It was tuition free and I lived with my parents and commuted until I graduated so no student debt. 

I had a $300 1961 Mercury Comet that my dad gave me so no car loan. He replaced the Comet with a $150 Ford Fairlane. 

There were no charge cards so no charge card debt. 

There was no internet, cable TV or cell phones so these expenses just didn't exist. 

Air fares were regulated so no one but the rich could afford to fly regularly. That meant that most vacations were pretty much limited to where you could get to by car. 

With no internet there was no online shopping with all the potential pitfalls that come with that. Plus, every decent company provided good health insurance AND a real life pension.

As I've pointed out previously, tuition has significantly outpaced inflation and so have home prices while median salary has fallen short of keeping up with inflation.

The average price of a new car in 1980 was $7,500. Today it's $48,400. Just judging by inflation one would expect it to be $28,500. 

On the plus the interest rates on the huge mortgages and car loans that you need are lower. But there are predatory lenders out there that are happy to take advantage of someone with a low credit rating.

So I think overall it's safe to say that things are harder but not impossible. Everyone starts out with little and has to work their way up. But it might take longer for the current generation than it took for us.

Why Did Trump Win?

Trump won because the Republicans read the room better than the Democrats.

Most Americans want a stable and secure economy and a safe environment. Notice that the GOP very effectively implied that those two desires were in imminent danger. That's why they won.

I don't want to argue about whether the economy is bad or whether illegal immigrants are causing a massive crime wave because the reality almost doesn't matter. What matters is the perception.

The perception is that the economy and crime are a problem and the Republicans played on those perceptions. The Democrats quoted statistics and tried to convince people that what they were seeing at the local supermarket was wrong.

Another issue is the Democrats are perceived as the party of wokeness and we're in the middle of a severe backlash against woke philosophy. It's hard to tell how big a role this played but I'm pretty sure it contributed.

So now what?

It's been my experience that Republicans tend to campaign well but govern poorly. I figure they have two years to try and convince people that voting for them wasn't a big mistake but I'm not sure they can do it.

I suppose we shall see what we shall see.

November 10th, 2024

One more update.

Trump - 312, Harris - 226

Trump leads the popular vote 74.5 million to 70.9 million

Senate: GOP - 52, Dems - 46

Andy Kim has won in New Jersey.

Ted Cruz won easily in Texas.

Kari Lake is losing in Arizona

Bob Casey is losing in Pennsylvania

House: GOP - 212, Dems - 204

The GOP has flipped 6 seats and the Dems 5 so a 1 seat gain so far for the GOP.

Josh Gottheimer has won in NJ5. 

November 6th, 2024, 8 AM Update

 8:00 AM

Trump - 276, Harris - 223

Trump leads the popular vote 71.3 million to 66.2 million

Wisconsin put Trump over the top. Harris picked up New Hampshire.

Senate: GOP - 52, Dems - 41

Andy Kim has won in New Jersey.

Ted Cruz won easily in Texas.

Kari Lake is losing in Arizona

House: GOP - 203, Dems - 178

The GOP has flipped 5 seats and the Dems 2 so a 3 seat gain so far for the GOP.

Josh Gottheimer has won in NJ5.

November 6th, 2024 - Trump Wins

Or at least he's so close to winning as to make no never mind about it. Being Trump he declared victory after winning Pennsylvania rather than waiting to hit 270. Well, I suppose I'm doing the same thing.

4:00 AM

Trump - 266, Harris - 219

Trump leads the popular vote 69.7 million to 64.4 million

Trump has taken Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. He leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Maine 2 and Alaska so it's only a matter of time. We appear to be heading for a 312-226 Trump victory. It also looks as if he might be the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004.

Senate: GOP - 51, Dems - 41

Andy Kim has won in New Jersey.

Ted Cruz won easily in Texas.

Kari Lake is losing in Arizona

House: GOP - 200, Dems - 172

The GOP has flipped 5 seats and the Dems 2 so a 3 seat gain so far for the GOP.

Josh Gottheimer has won in NJ5.

So we're heading towards a worse case scenario beyond which even I predicted. Oh well, I hope the stock market is happy.

Election Night, November 5th, 2024

I'm not going to stay with this very long. I'll take it to around 10 PM and then call it a night.

7:00 PM

Trump - 19, Harris - 3

Senate: GOP - 39, Dems - 28

House: GOP - 5, Dems - 1

8:00 PM

Trump - 90, Harris - 27

Trump's total includes Florida so the idiots that thought that state may have been in play can go and sit in the corner and STFU.

Senate: GOP - 42, Dems - 31

House: GOP - 40, Dems - 20

8:30 PM

Trump - 105, Harris - 30

Trump leads the popular vote 18.8 million to 15.7 million

Senate: GOP - 42, Dems - 33

Andy Kim is ahead by about 160,000 votes.

House: GOP - 54, Dems - 28

Josh Gottheimer is losing by 11,000 votes. That's not good.

9:00 PM

Trump - 154, Harris - 30

Trump leads the popular vote 22.5 million to 18.9 million

Senate: GOP - 42, Dems - 33

Andy Kim is ahead by about 200,000 votes.

House: GOP - 76, Dems - 35

Josh Gottheimer is now winning by 33,000 votes. That's better.

9:30 PM

Trump - 168, Harris - 62

Trump leads the popular vote 30.6 million to 27.6 million

Senate: GOP - 44, Dems - 34

Andy Kim is ahead by about 250,000 votes.

House: GOP - 105, Dems - 66

Josh Gottheimer is ahead by 33,000 votes.

10:00 PM

Trump - 201, Harris - 81

Trump leads the popular vote 38.0 million to 33.7 million

Senate: GOP - 44, Dems - 34

Andy Kim is ahead by about 256,000 votes.

House: GOP - 131, Dems - 84

Josh Gottheimer is ahead by 31,000 votes.

This is it. I'm going to call it a night. I will pick up whenever I wake up in the morning.

Election Day, November 5th, 2024

We voted this morning a little before 9 AM. We just beat a small surge of voters and basically walked right in with no wait. My daughter voted at 6 AM before going to work.

The new voting machines take a while and print out a paper ballot which you have to feed into a collection box. I liked the old machines better. They were faster and easier to use but I suppose these are more secure.

I'm not going to go crazy tonight since, despite what some sites are saying, I don't see this as much of a nail biter. I will probably sign off around 10 PM.

The 2024 Election, November 4, 2024

I figured that I would wait for the eve of the election to post my final pre-election thoughts.

Electoral Vote

Trump -246 (-32), Harris - 276 (-+35), Toss Up - 16 (-3)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 211 (-4), Toss Up - 108 (+4)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287 (-25), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map - No Tossups

Trump -287, Harris - 251, Toss Up - 0

538 Model

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (-25), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

I don't see enough to change my opinion that Trump will win probably with a 287-251 electoral vote victory. Electoral Vote flipped back to Harris but the overestimated Biden in 2020 by quite a lot so I don't see that as significant. 

I added "Polling Map - No Tossups" and it came in at 287-251 as well. The only glimmer of hope that I see for Harris is things slid slightly in her direction but I don't see enough of a change especially given the amount of early voting that has occurred.

Now let's look at the Senate and House for a second. Electoral Vote has the GOP taking the Senate 52-48 and Real Clear Politics has them also winning 52-48. RCP has the GOP ahead in the House 201-192 with 42 tossups.

Medical Issues, October 31, 2024

I'm FREE, FREE I say, FREE!

In other words my ankle is healed and my brace has gone the way of the boot.

Now I need to figure out when to put my house back together. I'm thinking I'm going to wait a while because I still need to rebuild the strength in both legs. Maybe next weekend.

In the meantime It's a beautiful Halloween day and we got zero trick or treaters. We're usually good for about 20 or so. Even during Covid we got a fair number. 

I suppose Trunk or Treat is the new king.

Medical Issues, October 30, 2024

I went to see the thoracic surgeon yesterday to get the results of my CT Scan. Apparently the area that was his biggest concern shrunk in size. It shrunk so much that he thought the Infectious Disease doctor he sent me to last time had given me an antibiotic. 

No, she didn't. Maybe all of the gallons of blood that I choked up after the biopsy had something to do with it. The bottom line is I get another six months of freedom and then I get to do it all over again.

I got my Covid shot today. I had gotten the flu shot two weeks ago. Getting the vaccines is pretty painless. I make an appointment at my local CVS which is five minutes away then I walk in and get the shot pretty much immediately. They don't even make you wait the 15 minutes after the Covid shot any more.

Tomorrow I see the ankle doctor. My ankle feels good and, incredibly, after not having any physical therapy for a week my left leg is also feeling a lot better.

My session with the ankle doctor could go very smooth if he tells me I'm all healed and good to go. If he tells me just about anything else then we're going to have a problem because this brace I'm wearing is beginning to irritate my foot and clearly the physical therapy may have helped the ankle but it's destroying my left leg.

I tried to count the number of different doctors that I've seen in the past year and gave up at 12. That was before I got to the two orthopedic dudes I saw. Getting old sucks but I suppose the alternative is worse. The problem is that may not always be true in the future. Maybe I should go looking for that bridge?

More Thoughts on the 2024 Election

This sounds more and more like 2016 again. The momentum for Trump is definitely there just like it was there in 2016. I check the data on a weekly basis and the shift to Trump has been very clear. 

I was at the early voting site yesterday and the number of voters made it complete chaos. But I saw very few young voters. That's bad. Older voters were out in force and younger voters were no where to be seen.

The voter turnout in 2020 was 66% of voting eligible population (63% of voting age population) and it will probably be about that again. The states that depress voter turnout numbers are actually the red states which rarely get above 60%. This is possibly because red states make it harder to vote. 

Blue states have much higher turnout which is probably why the Democrat candidate wins the popular vote even though they lose the electoral vote. 

The REAL problem though is that 72% of people over 65 vote but only 48% of those between 18 and 24 vote. I'm 76 so trust me on this, if you're young and just starting out building a career and a family you DO NOT want my age group making decisions for you.

So Trump wins and the Republicans probably hold the House and take the Senate. How much damage can they do? They didn't do a lot last time because they're not only bat shit crazy but incompetent. Things that I do expect to happen are:

(1) Trump's 2017 tax cuts will be extended if not made permanent.

(2) We'll get another corporate tax cut and may get another tax cut across the board. If we do then it will drive the debt through the roof because tax cuts never pay for themselves.

(3) As laid out in Project 2025 they resurrect Schedule F which will allow the replacement of many, possibly thousands, of civil servants with political appointees. This will be the most dangerous thing to happen because it removes lots of sanity checks.

(4) Ukraine is probably going to see US support dry up but other countries may step in to fill the void. Hopefully that war will end before too much more damage occurs.

(5) Israel will probably get more support. There may or may not be a crack down on the crazies claiming to be pro-Palestine when they have no idea of what the real issues are in the Middle East.

(6) The GOP will try and fail to get national abortion restrictions enacted but it will be a messy fight.

(7) Religion, especially conservative Protestantism, will get a boost in influence. How long this will last is unclear.

(8) LGBTQ, and especially trans, rights will take some hits. At the very least trans women probably won't be competing in woman's sports any more.

It's going to be an uncomfortable four years but I doubt we'll turn into Nazi Germany.

Early Voting and a Karen in the Wild

Yesterday my oldest daughter was in town. She was driving a borrowed Jeep truck with Texas dealer plates that she had taken from work for a road trip to Virginia. While she was here she decided that she would go to early voting in town. I went with her, not to vote, but just to take a ride in the Jeep truck.

I'm not sure what I expected but not what we found. There were seven places in the county open for early voting and one was in our town community center. Now it was Saturday and I'm sure that had an effect. It was chaos.

There was a line of cars waiting to get into the parking lot which was not only full but had cars parked in illegal spots and others looking for a spot like the mall at Christmas time. To say that the parking area was inadequate would be a gross understatement.

My daughter was a bit nervous about maneuvering the Jeep truck in the tight quarters because she hadn't had the need to do that before.

While we were waiting to get into the lot a woman, complete with a bleached blonde Karen haircut, got out of an Audi in front of us. I didn't think much of it at the time. I figured she was getting out to go vote on foot. Little did I know that this was going to be my first encounter with a Karen in her natural habitat.

We followed the Audi down a row of parked cars in the lot. There were maybe fifteen cars on either side plus a row of cars parked head in at the top of the row with a narrow lane, one car wide, separating the cars at the top of the row from the cars on either side.

The Audi had come to a complete stop, the Karen was standing in a parking space on the top row and another car was in the lane trying to turn into the space. That's when it dawned on me that this woman had gone on foot in search of a parking space to reserve for the Audi. 

We were stuck. The Audi was in front of us and another car was behind us. My daughter got out to see what the hold up was.

The hold up was the Karen was refusing to move out of the space and the woman trying to turn into the space wasn't about to give it up. My daughter, naive child, asked if there was a problem because everyone was stuck. The woman in the car said "there wouldn't be any problem if this one would more her fat ass."

At that my daughter said "I don't need this" and beat a hasty retreat back to the Jeep.

At that point the laughing gods decided they had enough amusement for the day and the following occurred.

(1) The driver of the Audi realized someone was trying to get out from a space on the left so he backed up to let the car back out and then took that space.

(2) The Karen, seeing the Audi get a space, surrendered her prize.

(3) The car in the lane took the space that the Karen was trying to save for the Audi.

(4) A car in the top row also left allowing my daughter to simply drive straight into that spot with no awkward maneuvering required.

Sometimes the gods work in mysterious ways.

There was about an hour wait to vote and my daughter's initial reaction was to leave and come back but I convinced her to get it over with give the lucky break with the spot, because I didn't want to anger the fickle gods by spurning their gift, and she had no idea what it would be like later.

I waited outside with my cane and made lots of new friends. I even saw my dentist but he didn't see me. Since this was Northern New Jersey even with the craziness in the parking lot people just laughed it off. Except for the Karen and the woman she was blocking.

It was pretty crazy. I think the craziness was due to there only being a few early voting spots in the county. The rest of us are planning on going Election Day when each town will have its traditional polling place open. But we're planning on going early just in case.

The 2024 Election, October 27, 2024

OK, I got lazy or depressed or both this week. I'm two days late with this but things haven't changed much.

Electoral Vote

Trump -278 (+22), Harris - 241 (-10), Toss Up - 19 (-12)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -312 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -219 (+1), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (-1)

538 Model

Trump -262 (+16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-27)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-16)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -312 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

If anything the election has shifted more in Trump's direction. Electoral Vote now has him winning with 278 electoral votes.

Godel's Ontological Argument

 All of the ontological arguments are basically word salads attempting to trick the listener into accepting the argument. That makes them about the most dishonest arguments as well. 

As for Godel, his Axioms are a big problem. First of all he never defines what he means by "positive." Some who defend his argument sometimes claim that this doesn't matter but most people disagree. Something that is so central to the argument has to be defined. 

Axiom 1: If property A is positive, and if property A entails property B, then B is positive. 

Why? Does there never exist a trade-off where one "positive" property requires the acceptance of a "negative" one? How about a military tank with light armor which allows it to move quickly but makes it vulnerable to armor piercing shells? 

Axiom 2: If property A is positive, then the property not-A is not positive. So is the property "Red" "positive?" Some people would say so (especially given that Godel never defines "positive), does that make "non-Red" not positive? Or are the property of "Red" and "non-Red" simply neutral? How do we tell if properties are "positive" or simply neutral. 

Axiom 3: The property G is a positive property. (G is the property of being "God-like"; an object with property G has all positive properties) 

This is total gibberish. Define "God-like" and why must someone with this property have all "positive" properties? Is jealousy a positive property? What about vengefulness? 

Axiom 4: If a property is positive, then it is positive in all possible worlds. 

Why? There are probably possible worlds where the property of being a Nazi is considered positive because the Germans won WW II while in most worlds the property of being not-Nazi is positive.

Axiom 5: Necessary existence is a positive property. 

Again, define "necessary existence" and demonstrate that it must be "positive" whatever the hell positive may be.

The 2024 Election, October 18,. 2024

 Well it's Friday and time to get depressed.

Electoral Vote

Trump -256 (+10), Harris - 251 (+4), Toss Up - 31 (-14)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -312 (+10), Harris - 226 (-10), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 94 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -246 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 66 (-27)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -246 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 66 (-27)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -312 (+16), Harris - 226 (-16), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Like I said last week,  I don't even see this being close unless something drastic happens in the next couple of weeks or somehow the polls are all seriously wrong for some reason.

Why Calories Count

I have run into a lot of nonsense recently claiming that calories don't matter in weight management for various reasons. As an engineer I disagree.

A calorie is by definition a unit of energy. A food calorie is actually a kilocalorie and equivalent to the heat energy needed to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water by 1 °C. 

Every food item contains energy locked away in chemical bonds. That energy is measured in calories. Once the food is ingested it is metabolized by the body to release the stored energy. Cells then capture and use this energy to fuel normal bodily functions. 

The reason you can't consume wood and coal, as one individual claimed should be possible if calories mattered, is the body can't metabolize wood and coal. 

The first law of thermodynamics states that when energy passes into or out of a system the system's internal energy changes in accordance with the law of conservation of energy. 

In other words if you ingest 2000 calories then your body just gained 2000 calories of energy. The body either uses the energy, expels it as waste or stores it. 

About 10% is expelled as waste and the rest is either used or stored as fat or muscle. It will usually only be muscle if your diet is high in protein and you're engaging in resistance training. For most people excess calories are stored as fat. 

If you consume fewer calories than the body needs then it will literally begin to consume itself to make up the difference. Typically it will first consume stored fat and then muscle. 

That's how it works. Everything else simply changes the rate at which a body consumes energy or affects the body's ability to metabolize and release the energy in the food consumed.

Medical Issues, October 11, 2024

So, I've been going to physical therapy for three weeks and it's not high on my lists of things I like to do. Interestingly enough my left knee is giving me more trouble than my broken ankle. The ankle doctor said my right leg would again be my good leg and I think I'm already there. I have two more weeks, four days, of therapy scheduled.

Wearing the brace is much, much better than the boot even though getting in and out of it is a bit of a pain. Still, at least I don't feel wobbly like I did with the boot. I now use a cane rather than the walker except when I'm on the tiles in the play room.

Monday I go for the CT scan and I get the results, and find out what new horrors I'll have to endure, on the 29th. I see the ankle doctor on the 31st. Hopefully I can then dump the physical therapy and the brace.

After we get the right ankle patched up I'll have to decide what do do about the left knee.

The way things are going I might have to start searching for a bridge that I can jump off of.

The 2024 Election, October 11, 2024

I've cut the number of sites again to just the ones that seem to regularly update. Besides, I'm becoming convinced that, unless something drastic happens in the next couple of weeks, that Trump is going to easily win this election. I suspect the media is artificially trying to maintain interest by continuing to say how close things are. I don't think they're that close.

Electoral Vote

Trump -246 (-16), Harris - 247 (-29), Toss Up - 45 (+45)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -302 (+21), Harris - 236 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (+30), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 94 (-30)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (-25), Toss Up - 93 (+25)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (-6), Toss Up - 93 (+6)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -296 (+15), Harris - 242 (-15), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Again we have a shift towards Trump who clearly has all of the momentum. Add to this that I have always suspected that he will outperform the polls and it tells me that, unless a disaster occurs, Trump will win easily.

The 2024 Election, October 4, 2024

Well, it's Friday so time to capture the current numbers.

Same rules, sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (-10), Toss Up - 104 (+10)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -281 (+19), Harris - 257 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -188 (+6), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 124 (-6)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (+10), Toss Up - 68 (-10)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 232 (-9), Toss Up - 87 (+52)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -281 (+19), Harris - 257 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Another good week for Trump who clearly appears to have the momentum. 

The 2024 Election, September 27, 2024

 Well, it's Friday so time to capture the current numbers.

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -262 (+26), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (-10), Toss Up - 104 (+10)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -182 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 130 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (-10), Toss Up - 78 (+10)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+43), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 35 (-43)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-6)

Overall a slightly better week for Trump. But it looks like everyone is as unsure as I am about this thing. You can read article from pundits declaring everything from a Trump landslide to a Harris landslide.

I still take the position that Trump wins unless the numbers begin to change dramatically and I don't think that's going to happen.

The 2024 Election, September 21, 2024

Well, it's Saturday (I missed Friday) so time to capture the current numbers.

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -235 (-26), Harris - 276 (-1), Toss Up - 27 (+27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 225 (+17), Toss Up - 94 (-17)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -182 (-6), Harris - 226 (+3), Toss Up - 130 (+3)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (+15), Toss Up - 68 (-15)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 241 (+15), Toss Up - 78 (+28)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (-6)

I still can't make heads or tails out of this. It could go either way. If I had to bet today I would bet on Trump for three reasons.

(1) Republican voters appear unphased by Trump's increasingly bizarre antics. If Jesus Christ himself were to endorse Harris I suspect they would still vote for the guy with the (R) next to his name.

(2) Trump tends to outperform his polling numbers. We might be looking at a sort of "Trump Effect" where people are embarrassed to admit they're voting for him or are jerking around the pollsters.

(3) I have this suspicion that at the last minute some people are going to balk at voting for a woman.

Medical Issues, September 19th, 2024

 I went back to the orthopedist to see about my broken ankle. I've been wearing this boot on my right ankle and I'd like to strangle the guy that designed it. It's curved front to back and side to side which makes me wobble. I keep feeling like I'm to fall and break my neck.

Going up stairs is OK but coming down I feel like I'm going to go flying because the damn boot is too big for the step.

My big hope was that I could dump the boot and I can, sort of. He told me to get an ankle brace but with no recommendations. Just go to Walgreens he says. 

Well finding an ankle brace turned out to be a little tricky. The one I got at Walgreens didn't work out so I ended up ordering one from Amazon (all hail Amazon, the god of buying stuff). It will be here tomorrow so I have to suffer one more day with the boot.

I also have to wear it when I go out.

But the big crushing blow was him saying that I need to go to physical therapy two or three times a week for 6-8 weeks in order to get my balance back!!!

Get my balance back? My balance would be fine if I wasn't wearing this damn boot.

I also canceled my knee surgery. I can't take the chance of having neither leg useable. So that at least got rid of four appointments. I get to see ankle guy in six weeks. 

The nasty appointment of course is getting the results of the lung CT from the thoracic surgeon. The scan is October 14th and I get the results on October 29th. That's two days before I see the ankle guy again.

The 2024 Election, September 13, 2024

Well, it's Friday again and the debate is over. 

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -261 (+31), Harris - 277 (+1), Toss Up - 0 (-32)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -281 (+16), Harris - 257 (-16), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -188 (+40), Harris - 223 (+13), Toss Up - 127 (-53)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (-32), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (+32)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 236 (NC), Toss Up - 83 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-27)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -281 (-6), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 6 (+6)

Given these numbers one would think that Trump won the debate. Clearly raking Trump over the coals did little or no good for Harris.

The Debate

Well, the debate is over and Harris pretty much made Trump look like a bumbling, incoherent fool.

Just to add to the chaos the ABC hosts fact checked him in real time about his claims of post-birth infanticide and migrants eating pets in Springfield Ohio. 

Trump spewed lie after lie after lie but this time looked mostly like a fool while doing it. His "barbs" bounced off Harris like she was wearing plate armor.

It was delicious.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure that it's going to make much difference.

Trump's voting block is solid and what sane people recognized as bald faced lies Trump voters were probably cheering on as "telling it like it is."

The most we can hope for is the debate will stunt Trump's recent momentum and hopefully reverse it but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

The 2024 Election, September 6, 2024

 Another Friday and another update. The big story recently has been that Nat Silver has declared that Trump has a 58% chance of winning to Harris' 41%. All of the ring wing news outlets have been running hard with this story. Personally, I'm not that impressed with Silver's model.

Again sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -230 (-11), Harris - 276 (-16), Toss Up - 32 (+16)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -265 (-3), Harris - 273 (+3), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)

Polling Map

Trump -148 (-70), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 180 (+70)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 236 (-15), Toss Up - 83 (+15)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

The big drop in Trump votes in the polling map comes from Texas and Florida going to undecided but I don't believe that for one second.

Everything else shows a tightening race. Looks like Harris' honeymoon period is over and things are setting back down. The debate is scheduled for September 10th and might be the deciding factor. I suppose we shall see what we shall see.

Medical Issues, August 31st, 2024

Getting old sucks.

The fractured right ankle has added to my other physical woes of a shot left knee and the constant lung monitoring.

I had planned to finally get the knee attended to in December but the ankle has led me to wonder if I really want to go through this sort of thing again. I'm leaning toward canceling the knee replacement but my wife won't be happy about that.

My next lung checkup is in October. Hopefully the ankle will be better by then but bad news in the lung checkup might impact the scheduled repair even if I decide to go through with it.

I spend way too much time in doctor's offices. Let's look at the current schedule coming up.

September 5th, Pulmonologist, checkup.

September 13th, Dentist, cleaning.

September 16th week, Orthopedist, ankle checkup

October 14th, CT Scan, lungs.

October 29th, Thoracic Surgeon, results of CT Scan (this is the big one)

November 12th, Orthopedic Nurse, Knee Surgery pre-op

November 14th, Cardiologist, checkup and knee surgery clearance

November 18th, Pulmonologist, knee surgery clearance

November 19th, Primary Care, knee surgery clearance.

December 5th, Orthopedist, Knee Surgery

December 6th, Orthopedist, release from hospital

December 18th, Orthopedic PA, post knee surgery check-up 

January 6th, Eye Doctor, checkup

January 15th, Orthopedist, knee surgery checkup

Damn Ankle

It's been a week since I fractured my right ankle and I can say, unequivocally, that this SUCKS!

I hurt it last Saturday but optimistically decided it was just a strain. But walking to the bathroom and especially going up and down steps were kind of painful. I started using a walker to limit the weight on the ankle.

On Sunday I found it hard to get down the stairs and the ankle looked swollen and black and blue so I gave in and went to the spiffy new Valley Hospital Emergence Room.

I'm spending way too much fucking time at this hospital.

They discovered that it was fractured, wrapped the thing up in a splint and told me to confer with a orthopedist at good old Ridgewood Orthopedics. They gave me crutches but said that I could use a walker as well. The walker felt more secure so I've been using that.

I managed to get an appointment at Ridgewood Orthopedics for late Wednesday.

The doctor verified that it was fractured, but shouldn't require surgery (that was REALLY good), and had his assistant set me up with a walking boot.

Let's talk about this boot. First, the thing in big, clunky, plastic and annoying. It's big on Velcro which is used to both wrap the padding in place and on the three straps which holds the plastic cover in place.

OK, so far so good. What I want to know is who is the idiot that decided that rounding the sole of the boot was a good idea. Bad enough that it's hard, and slippery, plastic but the rounded bottom makes it feel like I'm constantly wobbling.

I take it off when I go to bed so I got a urinal to pee in so I don't have to put the damn thing on every time I need to use the facilities.

The doctor told me to get external lifts to fit on my left sneaker to even out the height. I managed to get them the next morning from Amazon and they are designed right. The have a ridged rubber sole which provides secure footing.

So now my bad left leg with the mangled knee has become the leg I need to rely upon. Obviously I spend a lot of time sitting on my rear end. I was told to lay off exercise for at least a weak and then to take it slow and easy.

I was told to come back in three weeks but the girl at checkout couldn't find an opening and said they would get back to me. I haven't heard from them yet so a call to them on Monday is on my agenda.

The 2024 Election, August 30, 2024

Well, it's Friday again. The DNC is over and RFK Jr. has dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump. There is some whispering in the back alleys that Trump may dump Vance for RFK but I don't think that's going to happen.

Harris and Walz gave a joint interview on CNN last night and the reactions have been lukewarm at best. Harris may have made the interview controversial by trying to be uncontroversial. Obviously any impact of that interview won't be in this week's numbers.

Again sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -230 (-11), Harris - 292 (+30), Toss Up - 16 (-19)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -268 (-19), Harris - 270 (+19), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (NC), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 110 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 68 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -235 (-16), Harris - 226 (-15), Toss Up - 77 (+31)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Only one site now has Trump with enough electoral votes to win the election and five others have him leading. The biggest impacts have been Real Clear Politics moving Pennsylvania from Trump to Harris in its No Tossups Map and many places making North Carolina a tossup.

Two sites now have Harris with enough votes to win the election and four have her leading.

What are Harris' Policies?

Republicans and their supporters on the right keep asking what Kamala Harris' policies are?

Honestly, I'm not sure I care what her policies are. Congress passes laws and the budget so the president should be little more than the main suggester and critic. 

Unfortunately Executive Orders have become a way for the president to legislate. This isn't a new development. It has been the case since around the time of Theodore Roosevelt who issued 1,081 Executive orders which was more than the first 25 presidents issued combined. But the king of Executive Orders was Franklyn Roosevelt who issued 3,721. But at least he the excuse of s depression and a world war.

Things haven't been that crazy recently but presidents tend to issue between 200 and 400 Executive Orders during their tenure.

I didn't think much of Harris' economic plan and I'm leery of the idea of taxing unrealized capitol gains. I'm opposed to any consideration or reparations which I know that she at least wants to investigate.

I'm sure she's for a nationwide abortion protection, tax reform, improving the Social Security outlook and improved healthcare. I can probably get behind those although as usual the devil is in the details.

So we agree on some things and disagree on others which is what I would expect. The only way I could agree with a candidate on everything would be if the candidate was me.

The 2024 Election, August 23, 2024

I've noticed that some of these sites I've selected to track just aren't updating as often as I thought. I will mark sites that haven't updated in italics. I've also added four sites, Polling Map, Sabatos Crystal Ball, JHK Forecasts and Polymarket Odds, that have updated. I dropped Inside Elections because it hasn't updated since May.

Electoral Vote

Trump -241 (NC), Harris - 262 (-19), Toss Up - 35 (+19)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (NC), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 110 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (-33), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77

538 Model

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 68 (+18)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

There are now 12 prediction sites listed. Two have Trump with enough electoral votes to win the election and seven others have him leading. None have Harris with enough votes which is a change from last week and three have her leading.

The 2024 Election, August 16, 2024

Here's what the election prediction sites are saying.

Electoral Vote

Trump -241 (-29), Harris - 281 (+24), Toss Up - 16 (+5)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Inside Elections

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (-33), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77

538 Model

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (NC)

Not really a lot of changes. The only major movement was in Electoral Vote which is outweighed by little or no movement anywhere else.

10 Hurtful Things White People do to Their Black Colleagues Without Realizing it!?

This is a reaction to a gallery entitled "10 hurtful things white people do to their black colleagues without realizing it" (sic). Hey, I'm not the one that left out the capitals. As a general observation most of these things are actions of omission. I'm not sure how anyone could categorize an action of omission as "hurtful." At worst it's typically neutral.

1) Lack of Frank Feedback If I ever gave some black people constructive criticism I would immediately be labeled a racist. So why bother? 

 2) Failing to Advocate

It's not my job to "advocate" for someone else. Stand up for yourself. 

3) Exclusion from Social Events 

In my work experience external work events are open to all unless it's a private affair. In that case it's up to the individual to decide who they want to invite. 

4) Lack of Engagement on Issues Affecting the Black Community

The issues of the black community are not my problem. I have enough of my own problems to worry about. 

5) Disinterest in Learning About Black Culture

I've read "The Three Musketeers" and "The Count of Monte Cristo." Does that count? Or are you talking about only American black culture? What you probably mean by "black culture" I find questionable if not downright warped.

6) Not Showing Up (when invited to an event by black people)

Who people decide to spend their leisure time with is up to them. I'm not sure why anyone would think there is some sort of obligation to accept invitations. 

7) Gossip and Stereotyping

I'm an engineer. We don't really gossip unless it's about mathematical errors or dumb ideas. I suppose if this was something that occurred in a work environment I could see how it would be annoying.

8) Ignoring Microaggressions 

The whole micro transgression concept is a lot of nonsense and does an incredible amount of harm. If you really have a problem with what you call a "micro aggression" call people on it when they do it because they probably don't realize that it's a problem. I wouldn't expect anyone else to do it for you.

9) Tokenism

So we should shut down DEI and Affirmative Action initiatives? I'm all for that. 

10) Inconsistent Support for Racial Justice (including supporting "black businesses" and fighting "systemic racism")

Like I said in #4, I have my own problems to worry about. You need to stand up for yourself. What I won't do is stand in your way. I will only support "black owned businesses" if they are best provider of the products or services that I need. I'm not convinced that "systemic racism" is actually a thing. It strikes me as a convenient scapegoat when looking into the real reasons for something is too expensive or likely to yield an answer that people don't like. If you're pushing for "equity" rather than "equality," then you will find me in the opposition because "equity" is not a rational goal. 

 

The 2024 Election August 9, 2024

Here's what the election prediction sites are saying.

Electoral Vote

Trump -270, Harris - 257, Toss Up - 11

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219, Harris - 208, Toss Up - 111

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287, Harris - 251, Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -235, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 77

Cook Political Report

Trump -235, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 77

Inside Elections

Trump -235, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 77

Fox News

Trump -251, Harris - 241, Toss Up - 46

Elections Daily

Trump -268, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 44

538 Model

Trump -262, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 50

Clearly this is still Trump's election to lose. He leads in every model and in two has the 270 required electoral votes or more. RCP with no tossups has Trump winning handily with 287 electoral votes.

Harris Picks Tim Walz

Harris went with Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her VP choice. Walz may look like everyone's grandpa but he packs a wallop and is not afraid to get in the trenches. He's going to make the perfect pit bull for Harris.

Momentum and enthusiasm have come along with Harris but she still has a long way to go.

Trump's base is very hard to shake and the Democratic Party coalition is still very fragile. It's going to be a tough one.

So What do I Think?

I think Biden was right to drop out. Harris may have her own baggage to contend with but I think she can stir up the base better than Biden could.

A big issue will be the choice of running mate and hopefully the Democrats won't make a really big mistake in the choice. Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania would be my guess.

Biden Drops Out

Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination.

Let the games begin!

Trump Chooses JD Vance for VP

Trump has selected JD Vance, the junior senator from Ohio as his VP choice.

Oh good lord. The only good thing that I can say about Vance is that he's an ex-marine.

He's opposed to abortion even in cases of rape or incest. He explains his opposition as that "two wrongs don't make a right."

He supports a nationwide ban on abortions after 15 weeks and opposes same sex marriage.

He's a converted Catholic. He's opposed to supporting Ukraine but in favor of supporting Israel. So he's 50% correct there.

He's also young at only 39 years old which means he could be a major player for a long time. He has a JD from Yale so he's not stupid and that could be a real problem.

Trump could have made a worse choice but this one isn't all that great.

Documents Case Dismissed

Judge Eileen Cannon has dismissed the documents case against Donald Trump.

The rationale is that Special Prosecutor Jack Smith wasn't properly appointed because he wasn't approved by Congress and his budget wasn't specifically authorized by Congress.

This is an argument that has been made and rejected many times in the past. It's nonsense. The DOJ has a budget authorized by Congress and has always been able to use that budget for special prosecutors.

Think how difficult it would be to appoint a special prosecutor if every time they had to be approved by Congress and have a specific budget allocated by Congress?

I wonder how many people in prison thanks to special prosecutors can now challenge their convictions?

Trump's wins over the last couple of weeks almost make me believe there's a devil and Trump has made a deal with him. This is a federal case. If Trump wins the election, which looks almost certain, he can pardon himself. Our "justice" system really is a joke.

Someone Shot at Trump

Shots were apparently fired at Donald Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania. He appeared to be OK as secret service agents rushed him off stage.

The Price of Taco Shells

We eat a fair amount of soft Taco shells. I use them for sandwiches and we do have Tacos from time to time. During the pandemic I started buying them from Amazon in 12 packs of ten Taco shells. 

May 13th, 2020 - $20.88

June 30th, 2020 - $20.88

August 19th, 2020 - $27.49

September 23rd, 2020 -$21.00

November 13th, 2020 - $21.00

December 19th, 2020 - $21.00

March 12th, 2021 - $20.88

May 23rd, 2021 - $21.00

September 5th, 2021 - $26.03

November 9th, 2021 - $27.66

March 21st, 2022 - $29.51

July 10th, 2022 - $22.99

October 5th, 2022 - $26.88

February 20th, 2023 - $26.88

June 24th, 2023 - $29.28

January 8th, 2024 - $29.88

July 5th, 2024 - $33.99

However this was the first time I found other options. There was a 6 pack of 10 and a 5 pack of 6. The 6 pack of 10 at $15.99 actually turned out to be about 2 cents per Taco shell less expensive so that was the one I actually bought this time. The 5 pack of 6 was priced at $18.99 which was completely ridiculous.

What is Atheism?

Atheism can be EITHER a lack of belief in a god (weak atheism) or the position that there is no god (strong atheism). The position that that there is no god is a positive claim and carries a burden of proof. 

The lack of belief in a god is not a positive claim. The lack of belief that there is no god is a perfectly valid way to describe a weak theism. However religion DOES NOT position itself that way and neither do most theists. They make the positive claim that a god exists. Atheists simply reject that claim. 

No, a burden does not attach to the rejection of a claim. Consider a criminal trial. The positive claim by the prosecution is that the defendant committed a crime. It has the burden of proof to demonstrate that claim. The defense rejects the claim. The defense DOES NOT have to demonstrate that the defendant is innocent but simply that the prosecution has not met its burden of proof. 

Atheists find god not guilty of existing. 

This is basic epistemology 101. The person making the positive claim has the burden of proof. Those rejecting the claim need only show why the evidence is insufficient to justify belief. You can apply this to fairies, unicorns, leprechauns and big foot. I reject the claim that these things exist. By doing so I don't acquire a burden of proof to show that they don't.

Supreme Court Immunity Decision

The Supreme Court has ruled that a president has immunity from subsequent prosecution for the execution of official actions while in office.

The media, and others, are treating this like it's a shock. If you think about it then it makes a lot of sense. The key here is "official actions." 

Let me make this simple. If it's illegal then it's by definition not an official action.

Results of the First Debate

Ouch, Biden got absolutely torched.

Trump was strong and confident while Biden came across as a befuddled old man with a raspy voice.

It must be nice not to have to worry about the truth because Trump didn't seem to worry as he told whopper after whopper. No, there aren't such things as post birth abortions. It was New York state that prosecuted him. The DOJ had nothing to do with it and there is no evidence that the judge is corrupt as he claimed. I could go on but that's enough.

But the lies don't matter because presentation is everything. Given the polls and the disaster last night, without some sort of miracle, I don't see how Trump doesn't win come November.

The First Debate

Biden and Trump are scheduled to debate tomorrow evening and I have no idea what to expect. I'm also probably not going to watch the thing live. I'll catch the highlights on video later.

The media is simpleminded. So my primary concern is that Biden makes some sort of minor, but easily understandable error, which the media plays up all out of proportion. In the meantime, Trump is so incoherent that the media is incapable of unraveling what he says and basically gives him a pass.

Well, maybe not. More likely is that Trump will spew an unending stream of lies and misinformation that the media will ignore but harp on any and all errors, no matter how small, that Biden makes.

Lung Issues - June 6th, 2024

My thyroid is fine. The numbers were right down the middle.

Apparently my aortic and iliac aneurisms are fine as well. I had my yearly ultrasound and the stents are doing their job. They haven't gotten any bigger and there are no leaks. (leaks? WTF?)  

Who Owns Palestine?

People keep talking about Palestine as Arab land. Even I have used that term when discussing the refusal to accept the UN partition plan.

But what is the legal basis for that claim? I never thought about it in those terms. I simply figured that the Arabs lived there so they considered it their land. However it turns out there is a legal basis for the Arab claim that Palestine is an Arab state or should be an Arab state.

Of course it's the fault of the British.

During World War I the British made multiple agreements with different parties about the land controlled by the Ottoman Empire. 

One of these agreements was in a series of letters between Sharif Husayn of Mecca and Sir Henry McMahon in which agreement was reached about Arab aid against the Ottoman Empire in exchange for British recognition of an independent Arab state.

In a letter dated July 14th, 1915 Sharif Husayn laid out the Arab conditions including the anticipated boundaries of the Arab state.

"Firstly.- England will acknowledge the independence of the Arab countries, bounded on the north by Mersina and Adana up to the 37th degree of latitude, on which degree fall Birijik, Urfa, Mardin, Midiat, Jezirat (Ibn 'Umar), Amadia, up to the border of Persia; on the east by the borders of Persia up to the Gulf of Basra; on the south by the Indian Ocean, with the exception of the position of Aden to remain as it is; on the west by the Red Sea, the Mediterranean Sea up to Mersina. England to approve the proclamation of an Arab Khalifate of Islam."

In a letter dated August 30th, 1915, McMahon responded: "With regard to the questions of limits and boundaries, it would appear to be premature to consume our time in discussing such details in the heat of war..."

Sharif Husayn expressed his disappointment with this response in a letter dated September 9th, 1915:

"Nevertheless, your Excellency will pardon me and permit me to say clearly that the coolness and hesitation which you have displayed in the question of the limits and boundaries... might be taken to infer an estrangement or something of the sort."

McMahon in a letter dated October 24th, 1915 moved to alleviate Sharif Husayn's concerns.

"I regret that you should have received from my last letter the impression that I regarded the question of the limits and boundaries with coldness and hesitation; such was not the case, but it appeared to me that the time had not yet come when that question could be discussed in a conclusive manner. 

I have realised, however, from your last letter that you regard this question as one of vital and urgent importance. I have, therefore, lost no time in informing the Government of Great Britain of the contents of your letter, and it is with great pleasure that I communicate to you on their behalf the following statement, which I am confident you will receive with satisfaction:- 

The two districts of Mersina and Alexandretta and portions of Syria lying to the west of the districts of Damascus, Homs, Hama and Aleppo cannot be said to be purely Arab, and should be excluded from the limits demanded."

"With the above modification, and without prejudice of our existing treaties with Arab chiefs, we accept those limits."

The British took the position that this excluded Palestine from the agreed upon boundaries and the Palestinian Arabs claimed that it did not. Talks intended to resolve the differences failed and in the White Paper of 1939 Britain stated:

"In the recent discussions the Arab delegations have repeated the contention that Palestine was included within the area in which Sir Henry McMahon, on behalf of the British Government, in October, 1915, undertook to recognise and support Arab independence...His Majesty's Government regret the misunderstandings which have arisen as regards some of the phrases used. For their part they can only adhere...to the view that the whole of Palestine west of Jordan was excluded from Sir Henry McMahon's pledge, and they therefore cannot agree that the McMahon correspondence forms a just basis for the claim that Palestine should be converted into an Arab State."

In the same White Paper Britain rejects the idea of the whole of Palestine becoming a Jewish State.

"When it is asked what is meant by the development of the Jewish National Home in Palestine, it may be answered that it is not the imposition of a Jewish nationality upon the inhabitants of Palestine as a whole, but the further development of the existing Jewish community, with the assistance of Jews in other parts of the world, in order that it may become a centre in which the Jewish people as a whole may take, on grounds of religion and race, an interest and pride."

What the paper does suggest is a multi-national state with each group participating in the government in proportion to the size of the population.

"The independent State should be one in which Arabs and Jews share government in such a way as to ensure that the essential interests of each community are safeguarded."

This recommendation contradicted the conclusion of the 1937 Peel Commission that concluded that Palestine had two distinct societies with irreconcilable political demands, thus making it necessary to partition the land.

Racial Profiling?

We were coming home from a Giants' football game one night a few years ago. As we were passing through town there was a black dude with dreadlocks driving a beat up old Pinto pulled over. We have three police cars in town and two of them had this guy bracketed. My daughter looked over, shook her head and said "he had no chance." 

My town is 89% white and 10% Asian. The other 1% are mixed race or Hispanic. The police know every car that belongs in town. They can reel off what cars are expected to be parked at what houses. The other thing is that my town is basically a dead end. There is almost no reason to be there unless you're going there especially at night. 

So, racial profiling or not?

Stolen Palestinian Land

I just watched a video about Israeli settlements in the West Bank being on stolen Palestinian land. But I have a problem with this description.

How did this become stolen "Palestinian" land when the Palestinians never controlled it? 

- Prior to WW I the West Bank was part of the Ottoman Empire.

- From 1918 to 1922 all of Palestine was occupied by British troops. 

- From 1922 until 1948 it was under British control as part of the Mandate for Palestine. 

- In 1947 it was part of the proposed Arab State in the UN partition plan. However the Arabs rejected the plan and never took control of the West Bank. 

- After the 1948 war the West Bank was under Jordanian occupation and Jordan formally annexed it in 1950. 

- In 1967 Jordan, in keeping with its military pact with Egypt, attacked Israel. After bloody hand to hand fighting Israel captured the West Bank. 

- In 1988 Jordan relinquished any claims to the West Bank and recognized the PLO as the "sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian People." 

- In 1995, under the Oslo Agreement, the West Bank was divided into three zones as a transitional arrangement. Zone A under Palestinian control, Zone B under joint Palestinian and Israeli control and Zone C under Israeli control. The settlements are in Zone C. 

So the land upon which the settlements are built were never under Palestinian control. How does one steal something from someone who never owned it?

Trump Guilty on all 34 Counts in New York

Donald Trump has been found guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records at his trial in New York.

I have to admit that I'm really surprised by the verdict. I was expecting a hung jury or at best guilty on one or two counts and not guilty on the rest.

So, now what? These are E Felonies and it's my understanding that, especially with no previous convictions, that it's highly unlikely that Trump will get any jail time.

So does this really matter? Yes, I think it does. It emphasizes the point that no one is above the law even if I expect a sentence the equivalent of "now Donny, say three Hail Marys and promise never to do this again."

Lung Issues - May 17th, 2024

I got the results from the blood test and, surprise, I don't have Tuberculosis.

I suppose I should be happy that everything is negative but it makes you wonder.

In the meantime, I went back to the eye doctor and everything is terrific except that my right eye protrudes slightly. So she wants me to contact my PCD about a thyroid test.

It never ends. It never does.

Lung Issues - May 6th, 2024

So I saw the infectious disease lady doctor today. They did require masks in the office interestingly enough.

She said when they looked at the biopsy they detected a class of bacteria of which tuberculosis is a member so everyone immediately freaked out.

So, they did four pathology tests and all of them were negative for TB but they didn't send a sample to microbiology to do a culture. So that's what she wants me to do.

She doesn't think I have TB but a blood test and culture will settle it once and for all. So I need to make an appointment for a blood test.

It never ends. It never does.