The 2024 Election, November 4, 2024

I figured that I would wait for the eve of the election to post my final pre-election thoughts.

Electoral Vote

Trump -246 (-32), Harris - 276 (-+35), Toss Up - 16 (-3)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 211 (-4), Toss Up - 108 (+4)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287 (-25), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map - No Tossups

Trump -287, Harris - 251, Toss Up - 0

538 Model

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (-25), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

I don't see enough to change my opinion that Trump will win probably with a 287-251 electoral vote victory. Electoral Vote flipped back to Harris but the overestimated Biden in 2020 by quite a lot so I don't see that as significant. 

I added "Polling Map - No Tossups" and it came in at 287-251 as well. The only glimmer of hope that I see for Harris is things slid slightly in her direction but I don't see enough of a change especially given the amount of early voting that has occurred.

Now let's look at the Senate and House for a second. Electoral Vote has the GOP taking the Senate 52-48 and Real Clear Politics has them also winning 52-48. RCP has the GOP ahead in the House 201-192 with 42 tossups.