The Fall of the Republic 11/30/2020

It's like playing whack-a-mole. So, where are we.

In Pennsylvania there has been silence. Despite continuing to claim widespread voter fraud Trump and company have not, so far, made any steps toward appealing to the SCOTUS. Giuliani has said he's considering which would be the best case to appeal.

In Wisconsin the recount is complete resulting in Biden gaining 87 votes across the two counties. Despite claim that many "illegal votes" were uncovered, again, no new lawsuit has been filed as yet. The state Board of Canvassers rejected Republican claims that some 238,000 votes were "illegal."

Wisconsin is expected to certify the election tomorrow.

In Georgia a lawsuit filed by Sidney Powell alleging fraud in the Dominion voting machines got a federal judge to block plans to wipe or reset machines in three counties. The judge has scheduled a hearing for Friday but has agreed to receive a brief by Wednesday afternoon from Kemp and Raffensperger detailing the reasons why they oppose allowing Powell’s team to conduct “forensic inspections” of the machines in the three counties.

I can think of a few reasons starting with the hand count matched the machine count and Powell's team probably doesn't know jack shit about performing a "forensic inspection" of those machines. On the practical side, if machines were tampered with that tampering would be long gone by now.

Dominion has said that doing what Powell claims was done would be impossible and they are really pissed off. They are warning that they will hold Powell personally responsible for any negative impact of her allegations.

Arizona has certified its election results for Biden.

Update: Wisconsin has certified as well.

The Corona Virus, November 30, 2020

There are currently 13,624,629 reported case in the US and 271,839 deaths.

California has 1,208,204 cases and 19,152 deaths

Texas has 1,187,169 cases and 21,617 deaths

Florida has 992,660 cases and 18,509 deaths

Illinois has 720,339 cases and 12,193 deaths
New York has 646,964 cases and 34,275 deaths

Moderna has now applied for emergency approval for its vaccine. Florida is on the cusp of being the third state with over a million cases.

US Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 196,983, 155.5%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 226,490, 66.7%
April 13 - April 19 -- 206,029, 36.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 215,086, 27.9%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 198,464, 20.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 175,910, 14.8%
May 11 -- May 17 ---  158,286, 11.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---  161,280, 10.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---  149,072,  8.9%
June 1 -  June   7 --- 156,692,  8.6%
June 8 - June 14 --- 153,114,   7.2%
June 15 -June 21 --  190,901,  8.9%
June 22 -June 28 -- 274,422, 11.8%
June 29 - July 5    -- 350,566,  13.5%
July 6 - July 12    --  424,163,  14.3%
July 13 - July 19  --  478,255,  14.1%
July 20 -July 26  --  471,082, 10.9%
July 27 -Aug 2     --  441,956, 11.3%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --  382,710,  8.7%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --  358,990,  7.0%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --  303,731,  5.5%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  -- 296,147,  5.1%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     -- 291,480,  4.8%

Sep  7 -  Sep 13   -- 249,208,  3.9%

Sep  14 -Sep 20  -- 280,009,  4.2%

Sep  21 -Sep 27  -- 295,657,   4.3%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- 309.090,  4.3%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- 352.034,   4.7%

Oct 12 -Oct 18  --- 392,336,  5.0%

Oct 19 -Oct 25  --- 485,251,  5.9%

Oct 26 -Nov 1  --- 562,412,  6.4%

Nov 2  -Nov 8 --- 765,974,  8.2%

Nov 9 -Nov 15 --1,051,393, 10.4%

Nov 16-Nov 22- 1,198,168, 10.7%

Nov 23-Nov 29- 1,133,329, 9.2%

Over a million cases again but cases tailed off a bit near the end of the week. Hopefully that's not just a lull due to limited testing over the holiday.

New Jersey Cases, Percentage Increase and Positive Tests
March 30 - April 5 -- 24,119, 180.2%, 51.8%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 24,345, 64.9%, 54.6%
April 13 - April 19 -- 23,451, 37.9%, 53.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 23,737, 27.8%, 45.3%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 17,706, 16.2%, 34.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 11,788,   9.3%, 31.5%
May 11 -- May 17 ---   7,802,   5.6%, 12.7%
May 18 - May 24 ---   7,820,   5.3%,  6.7%
May 25 - May 31 ---   6,291,    4.1%,  3.7%
June 1 -  June  7 ----  3,719,    2.3%,  2.0%
June 8 - June 14 ---   2,717,    1.7%,  2.0% 
June 15 -June 21 ---   2,261,   1.4%,  1.3%
June 22 -June 28 --- 2,040,   1.2%,  1.4%
June 29 -July 5   ---  2,220,   1.3%,  1.5%
July 6 -   July 12 ---   1,896,   1.1%,  1.3%
July 13 -July 19    ---  1,485,  0.8%, 1.4%
July 20 -July 26   ---  2,580, 1.5%,  1.6%
July 27 -Aug 2     ----  2,987, 1.7%,  1.6%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     ----  2,423,  1.3%, 1.6%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  ----- 2,682, 1.5%, 1.4%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  ----  2,039, 1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --- -2,117,  1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---  2,447,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---  2,576,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  14-Sep 20     --- 3,128,  1.6%, 1.7%

Sep  21-Sep 27     --- 3,786,  1.9%, 2.0%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- --4,654,  2.3%, 2.4%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- --5.426,  2.6%, 2.6%

Oct 12 -Oct 18 --- --6,385,  3.0%, 2.7%

Oct 19 -Oct 25 --- --8,455,  3.8%, 4.1%

Oct 26 -Nov 1 --- --11,162,  4.9%, 3.7%

Nov 2  -Nov 8 -----14,966, 6.2%, 4.8%

Nov 9  -Nov 15 ----24,679, 9.7%, 7.3%

Nov 16 -Nov 22 ---26,733, 9.6%, 9.5%

Nov 23 -Nov 29 ---28,107, 9.2%, 7.1%

That's another record number of case in New Jersey since I started tracking things but at least the percentage positive number dropped.

Bergen County Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 4,018, 185.2%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 3,597, 58.1%
April 13 - April 19 --  2,855, 29.2%
April 20 - April 26 -- 2,326, 18.4%
April 27 - May 3 ----  1,220, 8.2%
May 4 - May 10  ----    744, 4.6%
May 11 -- May 17 ---    432,  2.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---    443,  2.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---    468,  2.6%
June 1 - June 7 ------  240,  1.3%
June 8 - June 14 ---    306,  1.7%
June 15 -June 21 ---   192,   1.0%
June 22 -June 28 ---  344,   1.8%
June 29 -July 5     ---  271,   1.4%
July 6 -July 12    ---    246,   1.3%
July 13 -July 19  --      109,   0.5%
July 20-July 26  --      246,  1.2%
July 27 -Aug 2     --     295,  1.5%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --     273,  1.3%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --     401,  1.9%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --     131,  0.6% Dashboard New Cases = 234

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --    231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 261

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---   231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 253

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---   178,  0.8% Dashboard New Cases = 244

Sep  14 -Sep 20     --- 202,  0.9% Dashboard New Cases = 251

Sep  21 -Sep 27     --- 238,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 294

Sep  28 -Oct 4  ------ 328,  1.5% Dashboard New Cases = 357

Oct   5 -Oct 11  ------ 439,  1.9% Dashboard New Cases = 440

Oct 12 -Oct 18 ------ 565,  2.4% Dashboard New Cases = 574

Oct 19 -Oct 25 ------ 789,  3.3% Dashboard New Cases = 794

Oct 26 -Nov 1 ------ 999,  4.1% Dashboard New Cases = 1,005

Nov 2  -Nov 8 -----1,398, 5.5% Dashboard New Cases = 1,487

Nov 9 -Nov 15 ----2,299, 8.5% Dashboard New Cases = 2,352

Nov 16-Nov 22 ---2,628, 9.0% Dashboard New Cases = 2,632

Nov 23-Nov 29 ---2,732, 8.6% Dashboard New Cases = 2,624

The Bergen County increases continue to tracking the New Jersey numbers. 

My Suburu has new oil and they washed it. Hopefully I'll get to drive it a little.

The Fall of the Republic 11/28/2020 Part II

New information led me to believe that an immediate update was necessary.

In Pennsylvania the Trump campaign is alleging that more mail-in ballots were counted that were issued by about 1.2 million. But the numbers they're using to "prove" this point are apparently just flat out wrong. Over 3 million ballots were requested and 2.6 million were returned.

In Wisconsin, it turns out the Trump campaign actually wants to throw out some 238,000 votes and not 30,000 as I previously reported. But only from Milwaukee and Dade counties. 

Why? Because they brought their mail-in ballots in early or declared themselves "indefinitely confined." 

The Wisconsin board of canvassers has told Trump to stuff it so you can be sure a lawsuit is about to be filed in order to disenfranchise voters who did what they were told to do by the board of elections. The fact that most of these voters happen to be black is, I'm sure, merely a coincidence (*cough, cough*).

Edit: An update to the update, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has tossed Mike Kelly's lawsuit.

The Fall of the Republic 11/28/2020

I've decided to scrap the "OK We're in Trouble Label" and begin calling like it is because the Republic is in serious danger.

So, where are we?

In Pennsylvania the 3rd Circuit has dismissed Giuliani's suit saying that it had "No Merit." Jenna Ellis got all giddy about this and declared that they would appeal to the Supreme Court. Giuliani called the last week in Pennsylvania a great success.

Getting to the Supreme Court appears to have been the objective here all along.

In the meantime Republicans in the Pennsylvania assembly and senate are working on resolutions that essentially say the election was tainted and congress should declare it as such.

The Mike Kelly lawsuit claiming that Act 77 was unconstitutional, therefore all mail-in ballots are illegal and the Pennsylvania legislature should determine the electors is still hanging around awaiting a review by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.

In Wisconsin the recounts are nearing their end. In Milwaukee Biden actually gained a hundred votes or so but Republicans have challenged somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000 votes. The board of canvassers rejected the challenge along party lines 2-1 so we can expect another lawsuit. Dane County is still counting. Wisconsin is scheduled to certify next week.

In Arizona the head of the GOP has filed a lawsuit in an attempt to stop certification scheduled for next week. I'm not sure exactly what her claim is but I believe it's associated with Maricopa County again.

Sidney Powell, of Hugo Chavez fame, has filed lawsuits in Georgia and Michigan alleging widespread voter fraud. Georgia is still in the middle of its second recount.

In Washington Trump has claimed that Joe Biden has to PROVE that the 80 million votes he got were all legitimate. Trump has apparently forgotten that only the electoral votes matter.

This is fucking insane and demonstrates how screwed up our politics are. If it were just Trump I could laugh it off but it appears that most of the GOP is backing him up in this.

A Little Fighting Back

Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell of New Jersey wrote to state bars in Arizona, Michigan, New York, Nevada, and Pennsylvania asking for Giuliani and 22 other lawyers working for the Trump campaign to be disbarred. 

Pascrell said  "The egregious pattern of behavior by Mr. Giuliani to effectuate Mr. Trump's sinister arson is a danger not just to our legal system but is also unprecedented in our national life."

While I don't expect this to go anywhere Pascrell is right. Giuliani and company have consistently talked in public about widespread voter fraud and a far flung conspiracy including Democrats, poll workers, the Dominion voting machine company and even Republican secretaries of state and election officials in multiple states.

In court they have made no such claims because even a dumb ass like Giuliani understands that bad tings happen to lawyers who lie to judges.

Like I said before. The court cases don't worry me nearly as much as the political maneuvering.

OK, We're in Trouble VI

This election continues to get crazier and crazier. I would love to know how much money Trump is raising off of his election fraud claims. 

In the meantime, Pennsylvania has appealed Judge Patricia McCullough's order to halt election certification procedures which basically puts her order "on hold." In any event the presidential election has already been certified. 

While that was going on Giuliani was telling Pennsylvania Republican legislators that they can override the election and appoint their own electors. Should that unlikely event happen, apparently the process would be as follows: 

1. The Senate and the House would each vote separately on which electors to accept. 

2. If they disagree, which of course is quite possible, then the electors certified by the state are accepted by default. 

3. Should that occur, you can be sure that Trump and company will appeal to the Supreme Court. 

Look how close we are to potential disaster. If the Republicans controlled the House in addition to enough state legislatures and the Senate they could, in theory, legally scrap the election in enough states and give the presidency to Trump.

I'm more concerned about these political maneuvers than I am the court cases. If Trump manages to convince ONE Republican legislature to take this route it could result in an avalanche of legislatures following suit.

I wonder what the role of the state Supreme Courts would be? Could they kill these alternate slates of electors? I'm not sure.

Senate Republicans could stop this at any time by going to Trump and reading him the riot act. Too bad every single one of them (except Romney, Murkowski and Sass) are skulking cowards.

OK, We're in Trouble V

The lawsuit by Republican Mike Kelly in Pennsylvania claiming is that the extensions to mail-in voting instituted by Act 77 required a constitutional amendment and not just an act of the legislature found a judge to listen.

Commonwealth Court judge Patricia McCullough issued an order halting all certification procedures. It's unclear what this means as the presidential election and most local elections have already been certified.

It's also about six months past the deadline set by the legislature for challenging the law. Can you spell "laches?"

But even if the courts decides the act is unconstitutional, it seems unlikely they would disenfranchise voters who followed the law in good faith. 

 But this is Trump and company's strategy. Keep throwing lawsuits at the courts until they find a really stupid, or corrupt, judge. 

 Apparently they found one.

Ok, We're in Trouble IV

Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada have all certified the election results. Trump continues to whine but the transition is underway after the Trump lackey in the GSA got the memo.

Still, most Republicans are mum or still supporting Trump's ongoing accusations. I'm not even going to mention the legions of Trump loyalists out there living in their special bubble of delusion.

This whole episode by Trump and the Republicans has been not only a disgrace but an assault on the rule of law. 

 In New Jersey the Bergen Record is attacking local Republicans for staying quiet and asking how any of them could possibly ask the people of the state to trust them with the office of governor in 2021. 

The answer of course is we shouldn't and hopefully we won't. The Republican Party has disgraced itself and the country and either needs to reform and clean house or it should be relegated to the trash heap of history along with Trump and his legal clowns.

OK, We're in Trouble III

The Michigan state Board of Canvassers has voted 3-0, with one Republican abstaining, to certify the Michigan election results. I'm sure we haven't heard the last from the Trump campaign in Michigan but the hill just got a whole lot steeper.

In Pennsylvania the counties are certifying results. One county says it won't be finished until Wednesday and apparently Republicans in counties that Trump won are now voting not to certify in the hopes it will prevent statewide certification. There isn't a pit in the inferno hot enough for these people.

The law suit filed claiming Act 77 is unconstitutional was apparently filed LONG after the deadline for challenging the act.

The recounts in Georgia and Wisconsin are either underway or will be underway shortly.

In Nevada a losing Republican candidate who wants the entire Clark County election thrown out halted the hearing when his lawyer insisted that the judge should recuse herself because she's a Democrat.

Clearly the strategy is to delay, delay and delay in the hopes that either they actually find some evidence or a really dumb judge.

The Corona Virus, November 23, 2020

 There are currently 12,438,800 reported case in the US and 261,780 deaths.

Texas has 1,118,143 cases and 20,797 deaths

California has 1,110,755 cases and 18,730 deaths
Florida has 938,414 cases and 18,000 deaths

Illinois has 656,296 cases and 11,507 deaths
New York has 602,463 cases and 34,072 deaths

Pfizer has said it is ready to apply for emergency approval for its vaccine and initial shots could be available by mid December. I have to assume that Moderna is not far behind.

US Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 196,983, 155.5%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 226,490, 66.7%
April 13 - April 19 -- 206,029, 36.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 215,086, 27.9%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 198,464, 20.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 175,910, 14.8%
May 11 -- May 17 ---  158,286, 11.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---  161,280, 10.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---  149,072,  8.9%
June 1 -  June   7 --- 156,692,  8.6%
June 8 - June 14 --- 153,114,   7.2%
June 15 -June 21 --  190,901,  8.9%
June 22 -June 28 -- 274,422, 11.8%
June 29 - July 5    -- 350,566,  13.5%
July 6 - July 12    --  424,163,  14.3%
July 13 - July 19  --  478,255,  14.1%
July 20 -July 26  --  471,082, 10.9%
July 27 -Aug 2     --  441,956, 11.3%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --  382,710,  8.7%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --  358,990,  7.0%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --  303,731,  5.5%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  -- 296,147,  5.1%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     -- 291,480,  4.8%

Sep  7 -  Sep 13   -- 249,208,  3.9%

Sep  14 -Sep 20  -- 280,009,  4.2%

Sep  21 -Sep 27  -- 295,657,   4.3%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- 309.090,  4.3%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- 352.034,   4.7%

Oct 12 -Oct 18  --- 392,336,  5.0%

Oct 19 -Oct 25  --- 485,251,  5.9%

Oct 26 -Nov 1  --- 562,412,  6.4%

Nov 2  -Nov 8 --- 765,974,  8.2%

Nov 9 -Nov 15 --1,051,393, 10.4%

Nov 16-Nov 22- 1,198,168, 10.7%

Over a million cases again and another new high. 

New Jersey Cases, Percentage Increase and Positive Tests
March 30 - April 5 -- 24,119, 180.2%, 51.8%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 24,345, 64.9%, 54.6%
April 13 - April 19 -- 23,451, 37.9%, 53.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 23,737, 27.8%, 45.3%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 17,706, 16.2%, 34.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 11,788,   9.3%, 31.5%
May 11 -- May 17 ---   7,802,   5.6%, 12.7%
May 18 - May 24 ---   7,820,   5.3%,  6.7%
May 25 - May 31 ---   6,291,    4.1%,  3.7%
June 1 -  June  7 ----  3,719,    2.3%,  2.0%
June 8 - June 14 ---   2,717,    1.7%,  2.0% 
June 15 -June 21 ---   2,261,   1.4%,  1.3%
June 22 -June 28 --- 2,040,   1.2%,  1.4%
June 29 -July 5   ---  2,220,   1.3%,  1.5%
July 6 -   July 12 ---   1,896,   1.1%,  1.3%
July 13 -July 19    ---  1,485,  0.8%, 1.4%
July 20 -July 26   ---  2,580, 1.5%,  1.6%
July 27 -Aug 2     ----  2,987, 1.7%,  1.6%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     ----  2,423,  1.3%, 1.6%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  ----- 2,682, 1.5%, 1.4%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  ----  2,039, 1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --- -2,117,  1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---  2,447,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---  2,576,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  14-Sep 20     --- 3,128,  1.6%, 1.7%

Sep  21-Sep 27     --- 3,786,  1.9%, 2.0%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- --4,654,  2.3%, 2.4%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- --5.426,  2.6%, 2.6%

Oct 12 -Oct 18 --- --6,385,  3.0%, 2.7%

Oct 19 -Oct 25 --- --8,455,  3.8%, 4.1%

Oct 26 -Nov 1 --- --11,162,  4.9%, 3.7%

Nov 2  -Nov 8 -----14,966, 6.2%, 4.8%

Nov 9  -Nov 15 ----24,679, 9.7%, 7.3%

Nov 16 -Nov 22 ---26,733, 9.6%, 9.5%

That's a record number of case in New Jersey since I started tracking things.

Bergen County Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 4,018, 185.2%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 3,597, 58.1%
April 13 - April 19 --  2,855, 29.2%
April 20 - April 26 -- 2,326, 18.4%
April 27 - May 3 ----  1,220, 8.2%
May 4 - May 10  ----    744, 4.6%
May 11 -- May 17 ---    432,  2.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---    443,  2.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---    468,  2.6%
June 1 - June 7 ------  240,  1.3%
June 8 - June 14 ---    306,  1.7%
June 15 -June 21 ---   192,   1.0%
June 22 -June 28 ---  344,   1.8%
June 29 -July 5     ---  271,   1.4%
July 6 -July 12    ---    246,   1.3%
July 13 -July 19  --      109,   0.5%
July 20-July 26  --      246,  1.2%
July 27 -Aug 2     --     295,  1.5%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --     273,  1.3%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --     401,  1.9%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --     131,  0.6% Dashboard New Cases = 234

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --    231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 261

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---   231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 253

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---   178,  0.8% Dashboard New Cases = 244

Sep  14 -Sep 20     --- 202,  0.9% Dashboard New Cases = 251

Sep  21 -Sep 27     --- 238,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 294

Sep  28 -Oct 4  ------ 328,  1.5% Dashboard New Cases = 357

Oct   5 -Oct 11  ------ 439,  1.9% Dashboard New Cases = 440

Oct 12 -Oct 18 ------ 565,  2.4% Dashboard New Cases = 574

Oct 19 -Oct 25 ------ 789,  3.3% Dashboard New Cases = 794

Oct 26 -Nov 1 ------ 999,  4.1% Dashboard New Cases = 1,005

Nov 2  -Nov 8 -----1,398, 5.5% Dashboard New Cases = 1,487

Nov 9 -Nov 15 ----2,299, 8.5% Dashboard New Cases = 2,352

Nov 16-Nov 22 ---2,628, 9.0% Dashboard New Cases = 2,632

The Bergen County increases continue to tracking the New Jersey numbers. 

Well, my physical is done. They posted my test results with no explanation. They look OK. If I understood them all it might be better but those numbers I do understand are fine. Today I need to take my Subaru in for its one year maintenance. I've got only 1600 miles or so on it.

What's the End Game Here?

What exactly is it that Trump and company expect to happen here?

Against all expectations they have achieved one success in Michigan when the Wayne County board temporarily failed to certify the vote count. They may score a second one Monday if the state wide canvassing board also deadlocks 2-2.

But if seems unlikely that the Michigan state court is going to let that stand. It may take a day or two but they should instruct the board to certify the results. I'm sure that will result in another Trump lawsuit.

The recounts in Wisconsin and Georgia, especially given that Georgia has already done one recount, seem unlikely to change over 10,000 votes in Georgia and over 20,000 in Wisconsin.

I doubt the Third Circuit Court will find Giuliani's arguments any more convincing than the lower court judge.

Nevada and Arizona seem to be dead ends for the moment.

Probability is a funny thing though. If you string together enough unlikely events it can become probable that at least one will occur.

Or is the end game getting to what they believe is a stacked Supreme Court? That seems to be what Giuliani is aiming for.

Would even this highly conservative SCOTUS disenfranchise tens of thousands of voters on what amounts to zero evidence?

Nothing would surprise me anymore but it seems unlikely.

Or are they just raking in the contributions from Trump's gullible base and want to keep that money flowing in as long as possible?

I suppose that time will tell.

OK, We're in Trouble II

The Michigan legislators that met with Trump released a statement saying that they haven't seen anything that would change the results in Michigan that Biden won the state and they would abide by the "normal procedures."

Those guys are certainly politicians. I wonder what they mean by "normal procedures?"

Two other senior Michigan Republican legislators seem to be implying that the canvassing board should certify the results on Monday but they haven't actually said that.

It's my understanding that if the canvassing board fails to certify then the Michigan Secretary of State can get a Writ of Mandamus from state court in order to force them to comply. Apparently balking because of concerns about county results that have already been certified is beyond their authority.

In Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger certified the results and Governor Brian Kemp accepted saying he had to "follow the law." Good idea gov. The Trump campaign immediately asked for another recount.

Trump's case in Pennsylvania was dismissed by a federal judge and they are now appealing to the circuit court.

There's also a lawsuit filed in Pennsylvania by a GOP group claiming that Act 77, which expanded mail-in voting, was unconstitutional based upon the Pennsylvania constitution and ALL mail-in ballots should therefore be tossed.

Cases in Nevada and Arizona have also been tossed and Maricopa county has unanimously certified its results despite claims by Trump and company of widespread fraud.

Chris Christie has called Trump's legal team an embarrassment and said Trump should wrap it up already as there has been no evidence of fraud or irregularities presented.

I agree with Christie. This whole thing is a national disgrace.

There is a report that one of the Republicans on the Michigan canvassing board intends to vote no. There's no information about the other Republican member. More on Michigan tomorrow.

OK, We're in Trouble

Trump is demonstrating how dependent our political system is on people playing by the rules. Trump is not playing by the rules.

Clearly the court cases were never expected to succeed. What they were expected to do is sow doubt and provide a rationalization for correcting an "injustice."

The first crack was when two Republican election commissioners for Wayne County in Michigan refused to certify the county election results due to what were obviously clerical discrepancies.

Then they changed their minds and certified; then they tried to recant those certification despite acknowledging that the issues weren't nearly great enough to affect the election. This was after Trump  made a phone call to at least one of the commissioners.

The second crack was in Mojave County in Arizona when commissioners "delayed" certification to show their solidarity with the commissioners in Michigan.

Now Trump has invited the leaders of the Republican controlled Michigan legislature to speak with him at the White House and they have accepted.

The next big milestone for Michigan is Monday when the state board is supposed to certify the state totals. But that board is also comprised of two Republicans and two Democrats. If they refuse to certify the election results what happens next is a bit unclear.

In the meantime there are concerns in Georgia and Arizona where Republicans control the legislatures and the governor is Republican that they could throw out the election results and assign Trump committed electors. If the legislature in Michigan does the same that would be enough to swing the election to Trump.

Something like this had been speculated about for months but now it's really happening.

The Corona Virus, November 16, 2020

 There are currently 11,281,308 reported case in the US and 250,947 deaths.

Texas has 1,043,110 cases and 19,798 deaths

California has 1,030,780 cases and 18,263 deaths
Florida has 885,205 cases and 17,525 deaths

Illinois has 573,605 cases and 10,742 deaths
New York has 565,587 cases and 33,744 deaths

Texas and California have now both passed 1,000,000 cases. Moderna has announced that its vaccine is 94% effective. I suppose they had to one up Pfizer. 

US Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 196,983, 155.5%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 226,490, 66.7%
April 13 - April 19 -- 206,029, 36.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 215,086, 27.9%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 198,464, 20.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 175,910, 14.8%
May 11 -- May 17 ---  158,286, 11.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---  161,280, 10.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---  149,072,  8.9%
June 1 -  June   7 --- 156,692,  8.6%
June 8 - June 14 --- 153,114,   7.2%
June 15 -June 21 --  190,901,  8.9%
June 22 -June 28 -- 274,422, 11.8%
June 29 - July 5    -- 350,566,  13.5%
July 6 - July 12    --  424,163,  14.3%
July 13 - July 19  --  478,255,  14.1%
July 20 -July 26  --  471,082, 10.9%
July 27 -Aug 2     --  441,956, 11.3%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --  382,710,  8.7%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --  358,990,  7.0%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --  303,731,  5.5%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  -- 296,147,  5.1%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     -- 291,480,  4.8%

Sep  7 -  Sep 13   -- 249,208,  3.9%

Sep  14 -Sep 20  -- 280,009,  4.2%

Sep  21 -Sep 27  -- 295,657,   4.3%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- 309.090,  4.3%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- 352.034,   4.7%

Oct 12 -Oct 18  --- 392,336,  5.0%

Oct 19 -Oct 25  --- 485,251,  5.9%

Oct 26 -Nov 1  --- 562,412,  6.4%

Nov 2  -Nov 8 --- 765,974,  8.2%

Nov 9 -Nov 15 --1,051,393, 10.4%

The first time over a million cases. The increase this week is larger than some of the total number of new cases during the summer. Biden has sent out feelers for a global mask mandate but red states have generally rejected the idea. What do these people have against wearing a mask? Yes, it's annoying but it's not that bad.

New Jersey Cases, Percentage Increase and Positive Tests
March 30 - April 5 -- 24,119, 180.2%, 51.8%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 24,345, 64.9%, 54.6%
April 13 - April 19 -- 23,451, 37.9%, 53.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 23,737, 27.8%, 45.3%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 17,706, 16.2%, 34.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 11,788,   9.3%, 31.5%
May 11 -- May 17 ---   7,802,   5.6%, 12.7%
May 18 - May 24 ---   7,820,   5.3%,  6.7%
May 25 - May 31 ---   6,291,    4.1%,  3.7%
June 1 -  June  7 ----  3,719,    2.3%,  2.0%
June 8 - June 14 ---   2,717,    1.7%,  2.0% 
June 15 -June 21 ---   2,261,   1.4%,  1.3%
June 22 -June 28 --- 2,040,   1.2%,  1.4%
June 29 -July 5   ---  2,220,   1.3%,  1.5%
July 6 -   July 12 ---   1,896,   1.1%,  1.3%
July 13 -July 19    ---  1,485,  0.8%, 1.4%
July 20 -July 26   ---  2,580, 1.5%,  1.6%
July 27 -Aug 2     ----  2,987, 1.7%,  1.6%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     ----  2,423,  1.3%, 1.6%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  ----- 2,682, 1.5%, 1.4%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  ----  2,039, 1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --- -2,117,  1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---  2,447,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---  2,576,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  14-Sep 20     --- 3,128,  1.6%, 1.7%

Sep  21-Sep 27     --- 3,786,  1.9%, 2.0%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- --4,654,  2.3%, 2.4%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- --5.426,  2.6%, 2.6%

Oct 12 -Oct 18 --- --6,385,  3.0%, 2.7%

Oct 19 -Oct 25 --- --8,455,  3.8%, 4.1%

Oct 26 -Nov 1 --- --11,162,  4.9%, 3.7%

Nov 2  -Nov 8 -----14,966, 6.2%, 4.8%

Nov 9  -Nov 15 ----24,679, 9.7%, 7.3%

New Jersey is back where it was in April in terms of number of new cases. However the percentage of positive tests and number of hospitalizations are still much lower. Governor Murphy has announced new restrictions reducing the maximum size of gatherings. This might be useful if anyone was paying attention which I doubt.

Bergen County Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 4,018, 185.2%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 3,597, 58.1%
April 13 - April 19 --  2,855, 29.2%
April 20 - April 26 -- 2,326, 18.4%
April 27 - May 3 ----  1,220, 8.2%
May 4 - May 10  ----    744, 4.6%
May 11 -- May 17 ---    432,  2.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---    443,  2.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---    468,  2.6%
June 1 - June 7 ------  240,  1.3%
June 8 - June 14 ---    306,  1.7%
June 15 -June 21 ---   192,   1.0%
June 22 -June 28 ---  344,   1.8%
June 29 -July 5     ---  271,   1.4%
July 6 -July 12    ---    246,   1.3%
July 13 -July 19  --      109,   0.5%
July 20-July 26  --      246,  1.2%
July 27 -Aug 2     --     295,  1.5%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --     273,  1.3%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --     401,  1.9%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --     131,  0.6% Dashboard New Cases = 234

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --    231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 261

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---   231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 253

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---   178,  0.8% Dashboard New Cases = 244

Sep  14 -Sep 20     --- 202,  0.9% Dashboard New Cases = 251

Sep  21 -Sep 27     --- 238,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 294

Sep  28 -Oct 4  ------ 328,  1.5% Dashboard New Cases = 357

Oct   5 -Oct 11  ------ 439,  1.9% Dashboard New Cases = 440

Oct 12 -Oct 18 ------ 565,  2.4% Dashboard New Cases = 574

Oct 19 -Oct 25 ------ 789,  3.3% Dashboard New Cases = 794

Oct 26 -Nov 1 ------ 999,  4.1% Dashboard New Cases = 1,005

Nov 2  -Nov 8 -----1,398, 5.5% Dashboard New Cases = 1,487

Nov 9 -Nov 15 ----2,299, 8.5% Dashboard New Cases = 2,352

The Bergen County increases continue to tracking the New Jersey numbers. 

I'm going for my yearly physical Thursday. Ain't that just great? In the meantime I haven't had a haircut since March and now tax season is approaching again. I feel like banging my head against the wall.

The Second Saturday After

As expected Trump won Alaska and North Carolina while Biden has apparently won Arizona and Georgia. So all hail Arnon Mishkin. May his frogs never grow wings.

So the final electoral count was 306-232 which is, strangely enough, the same count by Trump won in 2016. Biden leads the popular vote by well over 5 million.

Trump is still whining but most people are ignoring him. As to whether he still has something up his sleeve is hard to tell so we shall see what we shall see.

The Corona Virus is totally out of control and we're just beginning to enter the cold weather. We really need that vaccine sooner rather than later.

Trump Counties Account for Only 29% of GDP

 Put this one in the "it doesn't surprise me column."

According to the Brookings Institute, the 2,497 counties won by Trump in the 2020 election only account for 29% of the country's GDP. The counties Biden won account for 70%. Biden won 94 of the biggest GDP counties while Trump only won six.

This is even worse than the 2016 election where Clinton won counties accounting for 64% of the GDP.

So this tells me two things. The first is that the people who are producing the most voted for Joe Biden. The second is that a lot of poor rural counties voted for Donald Trump.

Now the question we have to ask ourselves is is why did they do that?

Republicans Seriously Proposing Ignoring Election Results

Governor Ron DeSantis in Florida has proposed that Republican legislatures ignore the election results and certify Trump loyal electors. 

The fact that this is probably so illegal that not even a 6-3 conservative SCOTUS would allow it is besides the point. 

Let me make this clear. Republicans are proposing the election be set aside and Trump returned to office for no other reason than that's what they want. 

Other Republican officials, including Marco Rubio, continue to throw doubt on the legitimacy of the election. 

After this, how can anyone with an ounce of honor or integrity even consider voting Republican? 

I might be able to forgive people for wanting to impose their religion on me. I might be able to forgive people for trying to use the rule of law to force women to carry unwanted pregnancies to term. I might be able to forgive people for being racist or bigoted against LGBTQ folks. 

But I sure as hell will not forgive people for trying to destroy our democracy and subject us to authoritarian rule.

Veteran's Day 2020

It is now eight days since the election and four days since the media declared that Biden had won Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes thus giving him the election.

The petulant man-child in the White House continues to whine about voting irregularities and election fraud with no evidence to back up his charges.

It's unclear what his motives are since the only thing his lawyers have managed to get are tongue lashings from judges.

Whether Trump and company are going to try and pull something drastic, whether this is simple salve on his hurt or whether he's managing to raise a lot of money over this phony issue is unclear.

I'm beginning to think it's the money. According to one report he is soliciting funds from supporters to help fight the election results but a fair amount of that money is paying off existing campaign debts and some of it may simply be going into Trump's pockets.

It's pretty obvious that he will never concede and will always claim he really won but was a victim of election fraud even though there is no evidence of any fraud. You know, just like he continues to claim he would have won the popular vote in 2016 if it wasn't for fraud.

That doesn't really bother me. What bothers me is the number of Republican leaders who are going along with this. Whether it's because they're terrified of Trump's supporters turning against them in a primary or because it's the path of least resistance is also unclear.

The Republican party is disgracing itself by showing that's it's made up of cowards and sycophants.

The Corona Virus, November 9, 2020

 There are currently 10,165,111 reported case in the US and 242,280 deaths.

Texas has 978,823 cases and 18,968 deaths

California has 974,582 cases and 17,979 deaths
Florida has 843,897 cases and 17,129 deaths
New York has 534,979 cases and 33,694 deaths
Illinois has 487,980 cases and 10,196 deaths

Texas has now passed California in number of cases and both it and California are rapidly approaching a million cases. Pfizer has announced its vaccine appears to be 90% effective and may be looking for FDA emergency approval later this month.

US Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 196,983, 155.5%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 226,490, 66.7%
April 13 - April 19 -- 206,029, 36.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 215,086, 27.9%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 198,464, 20.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 175,910, 14.8%
May 11 -- May 17 ---  158,286, 11.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---  161,280, 10.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---  149,072,  8.9%
June 1 -  June   7 --- 156,692,  8.6%
June 8 - June 14 --- 153,114,   7.2%
June 15 -June 21 --  190,901,  8.9%
June 22 -June 28 -- 274,422, 11.8%
June 29 - July 5    -- 350,566,  13.5%
July 6 - July 12    --  424,163,  14.3%
July 13 - July 19  --  478,255,  14.1%
July 20 -July 26  --  471,082, 10.9%
July 27 -Aug 2     --  441,956, 11.3%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --  382,710,  8.7%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --  358,990,  7.0%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --  303,731,  5.5%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  -- 296,147,  5.1%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     -- 291,480,  4.8%

Sep  7 -  Sep 13   -- 249,208,  3.9%

Sep  14 -Sep 20  -- 280,009,  4.2%

Sep  21 -Sep 27  -- 295,657,   4.3%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- 309.090,  4.3%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- 352.034,   4.7%

Oct 12 -Oct 18  --- 392,336,  5.0%

Oct 19 -Oct 25  --- 485,251,  5.9%

Oct 26 -Nov 1  --- 562,412,  6.4%

Nov 2  -Nov 8 --- 765,974,  8.2%

Another weekly high with no end in sight.

New Jersey Cases, Percentage Increase and Positive Tests
March 30 - April 5 -- 24,119, 180.2%, 51.8%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 24,345, 64.9%, 54.6%
April 13 - April 19 -- 23,451, 37.9%, 53.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 23,737, 27.8%, 45.3%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 17,706, 16.2%, 34.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 11,788,   9.3%, 31.5%
May 11 -- May 17 ---   7,802,   5.6%, 12.7%
May 18 - May 24 ---   7,820,   5.3%,  6.7%
May 25 - May 31 ---   6,291,    4.1%,  3.7%
June 1 -  June  7 ----  3,719,    2.3%,  2.0%
June 8 - June 14 ---   2,717,    1.7%,  2.0% 
June 15 -June 21 ---   2,261,   1.4%,  1.3%
June 22 -June 28 --- 2,040,   1.2%,  1.4%
June 29 -July 5   ---  2,220,   1.3%,  1.5%
July 6 -   July 12 ---   1,896,   1.1%,  1.3%
July 13 -July 19    ---  1,485,  0.8%, 1.4%
July 20 -July 26   ---  2,580, 1.5%,  1.6%
July 27 -Aug 2     ----  2,987, 1.7%,  1.6%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     ----  2,423,  1.3%, 1.6%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  ----- 2,682, 1.5%, 1.4%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  ----  2,039, 1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --- -2,117,  1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---  2,447,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---  2,576,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  14-Sep 20     --- 3,128,  1.6%, 1.7%

Sep  21-Sep 27     --- 3,786,  1.9%, 2.0%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- --4,654,  2.3%, 2.4%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- --5.426,  2.6%, 2.6%

Oct 12 -Oct 18 --- --6,385,  3.0%, 2.7%

Oct 19 -Oct 25 --- --8,455,  3.8%, 4.1%

Oct 26 -Nov 1 --- --11,162,  4.9%, 3.7%

Nov 2  -Nov 8 -----14,966, 6.2%, 4.8%

New Jersey continues to spike. Governor Murphy has announced new expected restrictions mostly associated with early closings of bars and restaurants.

Bergen County Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 4,018, 185.2%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 3,597, 58.1%
April 13 - April 19 --  2,855, 29.2%
April 20 - April 26 -- 2,326, 18.4%
April 27 - May 3 ----  1,220, 8.2%
May 4 - May 10  ----    744, 4.6%
May 11 -- May 17 ---    432,  2.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---    443,  2.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---    468,  2.6%
June 1 - June 7 ------  240,  1.3%
June 8 - June 14 ---    306,  1.7%
June 15 -June 21 ---   192,   1.0%
June 22 -June 28 ---  344,   1.8%
June 29 -July 5     ---  271,   1.4%
July 6 -July 12    ---    246,   1.3%
July 13 -July 19  --      109,   0.5%
July 20-July 26  --      246,  1.2%
July 27 -Aug 2     --     295,  1.5%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --     273,  1.3%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --     401,  1.9%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --     131,  0.6% Dashboard New Cases = 234

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --    231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 261

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---   231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 253

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---   178,  0.8% Dashboard New Cases = 244

Sep  14 -Sep 20     --- 202,  0.9% Dashboard New Cases = 251

Sep  21 -Sep 27     --- 238,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 294

Sep  28 -Oct 4  ------ 328,  1.5% Dashboard New Cases = 357

Oct   5 -Oct 11  ------ 439,  1.9% Dashboard New Cases = 440

Oct 12 -Oct 18 ------ 565,  2.4% Dashboard New Cases = 574

Oct 19 -Oct 25 ------ 789,  3.3% Dashboard New Cases = 794

Oct 26 -Nov 1 ------ 999,  4.1% Dashboard New Cases = 1,005

Nov 2  -Nov 8 -----1,398, 5.5% Dashboard New Cases = 1,487

The Bergen County increases continue to tracking the New Jersey numbers. 

My pulmonologist agreed we should put off any tests that lower my immune system and would require me to go to the hospital. Next stop, my yearly physical later this month.

The Saturday After 3:58 PM

 AP and NBC have declared Joe Biden the winner in Pennsylvania and Nevada. That would give him 279 votes. Everyone expects Trump to win Alaska and North Carolina which would give him 232 votes.

Biden leads in Arizona by 20,514 votes with 4% left.

Biden leads in Georgia by 7,547 vote with 1% left.

Arnon Mishkin must be all pins and needles.

The Senate will end up 50-48 in favor of the GOP with two runoffs in Georgia which should be a complete circus. I think Stacy Abrams will be dragging people to the polls. I think it unlikely that the Dems will win either seat.

The House stands at 212-199 in favor of the Dems with the Dems leading in 11 and GOP leading in 13 of the remaining races.

Trump says the election is "far from over" and pledges to fight on. I have this vision of him clinging to the doorway as the Secret Service drags him out.

Still, I won't feel comfortable until Uncle Joe is sleeping beside Dr. Jill in the presidential bedroom of the White House in January.

The Friday After 11:14 PM

 It's still the same four states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada that are going to finally decide this race.

Biden's lead in Pennsylvania (20) is 28,833 votes with 5% left.

Biden's lead in Georgia (16) is 4,395 votes with 1% left. 

Biden's lead in Arizona (11) is down to 29,861 votes with 5% left. 

Biden's leads in Nevada (6) is 22,657 votes with 8% left.

Yeah, I decided to get precise in the vote counts. I wish the percentage left would drop a bit.

I have this nightmare that the 2020 election will go on forever. Ballot counting will go on and on as more and more ballots are discovered. Recounts will go into an infinite loop and lawsuits will pile up faster than they can be resolved.

The Friday After 9:13 PM

The numbers have changed a bit during the day but that's about it. It's still the same four states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. 

Biden's lead in Pennsylvania (20) is 21,000 votes with 5% left. 

Biden's lead in Georgia (16) is 4,000 votes with 1% left. 

Biden's lead in Arizona (11) is down to 29,000 votes with 5% left. 

Biden's leads in Nevada (6) is 22,000 votes with 8% left. 

So Biden has gained ground in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada but continues to lose ground in Arizona. 

There is a bit of a side story to the Arizona numbers. The two main sources for "calls" are Edison Research and the Associated Press. Fox News seems to have its own analysts and a backroom analyst by the name of Arnon Mishkin called Arizona for Biden Tuesday night. 

Trump went absolutely ballistic over the call and not only berated Fox News but Mishkin as well. 

Trump and company apparently sent out a tweet complete with Mishkin's donation history to Barack Obama and Act Blue calling him a "Democratic Operative" and a "Clinton-voting, Biden-Voting Democrat." 

Now aside from the inappropriateness of lashing out at someone who is essentially a senior clerk this is symptomatic of today's culture where, when someone disagrees with you, they attack you personally rather than trying to refute what you said. 

I think a reaction along the lines of Mishkin is entitled to his opinion but we believe he's wrong and time will prove us right would have been a lot better. Even if they had implied, or even outright said, his conclusion might be colored by his political opinions, it would have been on the border of inappropriate but not all that bad.

Mishkin's reaction to the Trump campaigns assertion that they will win Arizona was "If a frog had wings."

Now, that was a cute rejoinder but it doesn't help any when you bring yourself down to their level.

In any event the Trump campaign insisted then, and continues to insist, that Trump will win Arizona and it has been moving in that direction ever since. I wonder if Arnon Mishkin is going to end up with egg on his face?

The Friday After 12:13 PM

There have been some changes overnight but things are still far from settled. It's the same four states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

Biden now leads in Pennsylvania (20) by 9,000 votes with 5% left.

Biden now leads in Georgia (16) by 1,500 votes with 1% left.

Biden's lead in Arizona (11) is down to 43,000 votes with 7% left.

Biden leads in Nevada (6) by 20,000 votes with 9% left.

Biden needs to either hold onto Pennsylvania or hold onto any other two states. Trump needs to reclaim Pennsylvania and take any two other states.

Trump continues to initiate lawsuits and claim fraud and illegal ballots. It's rumored that he won't concede no matter what and that if he loses he will run again in 2024.

Geez, what an absolute mess.

Nothing much has changed in the Senate or House. The GOP leads 50-48 and both Georgia seats not appear headed for a run-off. At best the Dems will end up with a razor thin majority in the House but they could still lose control.

In the Meantime...

The pandemic appears to be totally out of control now. There are over 115,000 cases reported today. Texas has passed California and both are approaching 1,000,000 cases.

There were also 1,100 deaths today.

Things are spiking badly in New Jersey and Governor Murphy has indicated he's going to again put restrictions in place. The latest major problem is that the percentage of positive tests has climbed to almost 6%.

Despite the spike in New Jersey cases Wisconsin passed it today. Arizona looked like it had gotten things under control but it recorded over 2,000 cases today.

Things are getting about as scary as they were in April and May and the cold weather is just beginning.

Two Days Later 10:24 PM

This is really coming down to four states, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Trump is going to win Alaska and North Carolina so that would make it 253-232 in favor of Biden.

Trump's lead in Georgia is down to 1,800 votes but I don't think there are many votes left to count. It's probably much less than 1%. Where's Richard Daly and his phantom voters when you need him? To get rid of Trump I would have no qualms about cheating.

Trump's lead in Pennsylvania is down to 42,000 votes with an estimated 6% left to count. 

Things are not so rosy on the other side either. 

Biden's lead in Nevada is an almost invisible 11,000 votes with 11% left to count. Biden's lead in Arizona has been dropping all day and is down to 46,000 votes with about 11% left to count.

It would not surprise me if Biden ending up losing both Arizona and Nevada. A win in Georgia wouldn't be enough to offset that because that would result in a 269-269 tie and it would go to the House of Representatives.

The House would vote by delegation and the Republicans hold a majority of delegations so Trump would win if it goes to the House. 

Biden needs Pennsylvania. Of course we're probably heading for recounts everywhere but recounts are historically unlikely to change much.

Then again, there's nothing normal about this election and what's been going on this year so who knows?

Two Days Later 8:09 PM

Trump held a news conference this evening where he made, without any evidence, claims of voting and ballot counting irregularities. 

Biden has been projected to have 253 votes and Trump 214.

Trump leads in Pennsylvania (20) by 64,000 votes with 7% left.

Trump leads in North Carolina (15) by 78,000 votes with <1% left.

Trump leads in Georgia (16) by 3,500 votes with <1% left.

Trump leads in Alaska (3) by a lot and will win Alaska.

Clearly Trump will hold on in North Carolina but Georgia and especially Pennsylvania might be a problem for him.

Biden leads in Arizona (11) by 56,000 votes with 13% left.

Biden leads in Nevada (6) by 11,000 votes with 12% left.

OK, things are really close. It seems silly to me that over 150 million people have cast ballots but we're obsessing over a couple of thousands votes in four states (Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada).

The Senate has changed. Now it looks like 50-48 with runoffs in both Georgia elections. That should be an absolute circus but I still expect the Republicans to win the runoffs so still figure 52-48.

The Dems are holding onto the House by their fingertips. They could lose it yet and Trump could very easily still win. I have no confidence in Arizona and Nevada is shaky as well. Biden really needs Pennsylvania.

Two Days Later 12:30 PM

Despite numerous lawsuits by the president the votes continue to be counted.

Biden has been projected to have 253 votes and Trump 214.

Trump leads in Pennsylvania (20) by 116,000 votes with 8% left.

Trump leads in North Carolina (15) by 78,000 votes with <1% left.

Trump leads in Georgia (16) by 15,000 votes with <1% left.

Trump leads in Alaska (3) by a lot and will win Alaska.

Clearly Trump will hold on in North Carolina and Georgia and will probably hold on in Pennsylvania.

Biden leads in Arizona (11) by 68,000 votes with 14% left.

Biden leads in Nevada (6) by 11,000 votes with 12% left.

Clearly Biden's leads are more tenuous than Trump's.

The Senate looks like 51-48 with a runoff in the Georgia special election. I expect the Republican to win the runoff so figure 52-48.

The House is still pretty fluid but the GOP will probably pick up a fair number of seats.

The Evening After 10:20 PM

Hi, I'm chaos. You're going to be seeing a lot of me in the next few weeks.

Biden now has been projected to have 253 votes as Wisconsin and Michigan have been placed into his column.

Trump now has been projected to have 214 votes as he has picked up Maine District 2.

As far as I can see Trump is going to win North Carolina and Alaska. I really don't know why they haven't been called yet. That will give him 232 votes.

Biden has razor thin leads in Arizona and Nevada which could easily disappear in the next update.

Trump has a razor thin lead in Georgia but still a pretty significant almost 200,000 vote lead in Pennsylvania.

I don't know which way this is going to go plus Trump and company have initiated lawsuits in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia essentially claiming that invalid ballots are being counted and their inspectors are not being given adequate access to the counting.

Clearly they're trying to preserve the leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia and buy time in Michigan. I'm still not comfortable that Biden can hold Arizona or Nevada and in that case Trump wouldn't need Michigan.

The GOP will hold the senate probably at 51-48 with what I think will be a runoff in the Georgia special election. I don't see any way once it comes down to one Republican vs. one Democrat for the GOP to lose so figure 52-48 in the senate. A gain of only one seat for the Dems.

The Dems looks like they will hold onto the House but lose a good chunk of their majority.

Overall this has been a disappointing election for the Democrats because they had such high hopes. I think before all is said and done Trump will claim the presidency as well either legitimately by votes or not so legitimately by court decision.

But we will survive and move on. In the meantime the virus is running wild with almost 100,000 new cases a day. If we eradicate the virus Trump can have the presidency but I don' see how we do that while he's president.

The Morning After 12:13 PM

 Well isn't this a fine mess.

Biden, according to the WAPO, has 227 votes and Trump has 213.

Trump leads in Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Alaska (3) and Maine District 2 (1). That's a total of 55 votes.

Biden leads in Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6). That's a total of 43 votes.

So, if nothing changes Biden would have 270 votes and Trump 268. Aside from the fact that the howling from Trump and the court cases would rival the Johnstown flood in fury it opens the door for a faithless elector to decide the election.

The GOP will hold the Senate and the House is still up for grabs. The best the Dems can hope for is a significant reduction in their majority in the House.

I find the House situation the most surprising of all.

Election Night 11:15 PM

Well, I'm signing off with Trump leading in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina.

Those states might still be in play but Florida, Texas. Ohio and Georgia are long gone even if they haven't been called yet.

Arizona, Maine and Rhode Island are also in play.

The Senate appears to be heading for at most a one seat gain for the Democrats but they'll be lucky if they don't lose 10-12 seats in the House.

Election Night 10:30 PM

So Biden appears to have lost Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio. Plus he trails in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia. He has a small lead in Arizona.

So basically none of the states expected to flip away from Trump appear to be flipping. We're potentially looking at almost the same map as 2016.

The GOP is beginning to look like it's going to hold the senate and might actually gain a few seats in the House.

All I can say is wow.

I'm not going to stay up and continue to subject myself to this but I'll hang around a little bit longer.

10:43 PM Update: I just took a closer look at the House and the GOP could very well flip the House. It's not that far fetched right now.

10:50 PM Update: Biden is actually trailing in Rhode Island at the moment.

Election Night 10 PM

Biden currently trails now in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. He has an eyelash of a lead in Ohio and North Carolina but I expect those to disappear shortly.

Mitch McConnell and Lindsay Graham have both won re-election. The Democrats are rapidly coming down to holding onto the House and that's about it.

It's amazing how off all of these so-called polls appear to have been.

A quick update, Trump has jumped into a significant lead in Ohio and North Carolina is basically even.

Election Night 9:40 PM

 I'm sure glad that my livelihood doesn't depend upon political polling because as far as I can see the pollsters are going to really take it on the chin this time.

Trump leads in Florida by 3.4% and while it hasn't been called yet the call can't be too far away.

Trump is rapidly gaining on Biden in Ohio and will probably pass him shortly the way things are going. The same for North Carolina. Biden had a short lived lead in Texas but that's long gone as well.

Biden's possible paths to winning have pretty much dwindled to Pennsylvania assuming he can come back in Virginia where he currently trails.

This is turning into total disaster.

State of the Polling - Final plus One

I decided to do one more of these because there were additional updates. It's the Election Projection site that is the most discouraging. Same deal, shifts to Trump are marked in bold.

RealClearPolitics

Biden - 216 - 125 with 197 Tossups

Biden - 216 - 125 with 197 Tossups

Biden - 216 - 125 with 197 Tossups

Biden - 216 - 125 with 197 Tossups

Biden - 345 - 193

Biden - 368 - 170

Biden - 319 - 219

Biden - 319 - 219

FiveThirtyEight

Biden - 89%, Trump - 10%, Tie - 1%

Biden - 89%, Trump - 10%, Tie - 1%

Biden - 89%, Trump - 10%, Tie - 1%

Biden - 89%, Trump - 10%, Tie - 1%

Election Projection

Biden - 307 - 231

Biden - 307 - 231

Biden - 308 - 230

Biden - 278 - 260

Popular Vote - Biden 49.1% - 45.9%

Popular Vote - Biden 49.1% - 45.9%

Popular Vote - Biden 48.2% - 46.2%

Popular Vote - Biden 49.4% - 45.6%

ElectoralVote

Biden - 356 - 164 with one Tie (Ohio)

Biden - 350 - 170 with one Tie (Ohio)

Biden - 368 - 170

Biden - 350 - 170 with one Tie (Ohio)

The Economist

Biden - 97%, Trump - 3%

Biden - 96%, Trump - 4%

Biden - 96%, Trump - 4%

Biden - 97%, Trump - 3%

Biden - 352 - 186

Biden - 350 - 188

Biden - 350 - 188

Biden - 356 - 182

Financial Times

Biden - 273 - 125 with 140 Tossups

Biden - 272 - 125 with 141 Tossups

Biden - 252 - 125 with 161 Tossups

Biden - 252 - 125 with 161 Tossups

Popular Vote - Biden 51.9% - 43.1%

Popular Vote - Biden 51.8% - 43.1%

Popular Vote - Biden 51.5% - 43.3%

Popular Vote - Biden 51.5% - 43.4%

PredictIt

Biden - 66 cents, Trump - 40 cents

Biden - 65 cents, Trump - 40 cents

Biden - 64 cents, Trump - 41 cents

Biden - 66 cents, Trump - 41 cents

I have an even worse feeling about this. I understand that Election Projection is run by someone who is heavily biased in the conservative/Trump direction but I find his analysis running pretty close to my own. I think Trump is going to pull off another last minute win and again confound the polls and the pundits.

Here's hoping I'm wrong.

Just Before the Plunge

 Well, it's Monday night and I need to get off the fence. What's going to happen in this election?

I think I'll start with the RealClearPolitics map which shows Biden up 319-219 in electoral votes. The problem is that this map shows Biden winning Pennsylvania, Florida and Arizona and I don't think Biden is going to win any of them.

That shifts 60 votes from Biden to Trump resulting in a 279-259 victory for Trump. Biden will win the popular vote but not the electoral vote.

Doesn't that just suck?