I decided to do one more of these because there were additional updates. It's the Election Projection site that is the most discouraging. Same deal, shifts to Trump are marked in bold.
RealClearPolitics
Biden - 216 - 125 with 197 Tossups
Biden - 216 - 125 with 197 Tossups
Biden - 216 - 125 with 197 Tossups
Biden - 216 - 125 with 197 Tossups
Biden - 345 - 193
Biden - 368 - 170
Biden - 319 - 219
Biden - 319 - 219
FiveThirtyEight
Biden - 89%, Trump - 10%, Tie - 1%
Biden - 89%, Trump - 10%, Tie - 1%
Biden - 89%, Trump - 10%, Tie - 1%
Biden - 89%, Trump - 10%, Tie - 1%
Election Projection
Biden - 307 - 231
Biden - 307 - 231
Biden - 308 - 230
Biden - 278 - 260
Popular Vote - Biden 49.1% - 45.9%
Popular Vote - Biden 49.1% - 45.9%
Popular Vote - Biden 48.2% - 46.2%
Popular Vote - Biden 49.4% - 45.6%
ElectoralVote
Biden - 356 - 164 with one Tie (Ohio)
Biden - 350 - 170 with one Tie (Ohio)
Biden - 368 - 170
Biden - 350 - 170 with one Tie (Ohio)
The Economist
Biden - 97%, Trump - 3%
Biden - 96%, Trump - 4%
Biden - 96%, Trump - 4%
Biden - 97%, Trump - 3%
Biden - 352 - 186
Biden - 350 - 188
Biden - 350 - 188
Biden - 356 - 182
Financial Times
Biden - 273 - 125 with 140 Tossups
Biden - 272 - 125 with 141 Tossups
Biden - 252 - 125 with 161 Tossups
Biden - 252 - 125 with 161 Tossups
Popular Vote - Biden 51.9% - 43.1%
Popular Vote - Biden 51.8% - 43.1%
Popular Vote - Biden 51.5% - 43.3%
Popular Vote - Biden 51.5% - 43.4%
PredictIt
Biden - 66 cents, Trump - 40 cents
Biden - 65 cents, Trump - 40 cents
Biden - 64 cents, Trump - 41 cents
Biden - 66 cents, Trump - 41 cents
I have an even worse feeling about this. I understand that Election Projection is run by someone who is heavily biased in the conservative/Trump direction but I find his analysis running pretty close to my own. I think Trump is going to pull off another last minute win and again confound the polls and the pundits.
Here's hoping I'm wrong.
No comments:
Post a Comment