The State of the Polling II

I decided that since I'm only doing this for a short while I will just add the updates.

RealClearPolitics

Biden - 216 - 125 with 197 Tossups

Biden - 216 - 125 with 197 Tossups

Biden - 345 - 193

Biden - 368 - 170

FiveThirtyEight

Biden - 89%, Trump - 10%, Tie - 1%

Biden - 89%, Trump - 10%, Tie - 1%

Election Projection

Biden - 307 - 231

Biden - 307 - 231

Popular Vote - Biden 49.1% - 45.9%

Popular Vote - Biden 49.1% - 45.9%

ElectoralVote

Biden - 356 - 164 with one Tie (Ohio)

Biden - 350 - 170 with one Tie (Ohio)

The Economist

Biden - 97%, Trump - 3%

Biden - 96%, Trump - 4%

Biden - 352 - 186

Biden - 350 - 188

Financial Times

Biden - 273 - 125 with 140 Tossups

Biden - 272 - 125 with 141 Tossups

Popular Vote - Biden 51.9% - 43.1%

Popular Vote - Biden 51.8% - 43.1%

PredictIt

Biden - 66 cents, Trump - 40 cents

Biden - 65 cents, Trump - 40 cents

So we have slight movement in favor of Trump in most cases. Election Projection didn't update beyond Friday. This is possibly the result of the last Iowa poll showing Trump taking control in Iowa. That's an ominous sign and one has to wonder about other swings that just haven't been measured yet.

There are two pollsters that show Trump winning. One is the Trafalgar Group and the other is the Dornsife Center. Rasmussen is also showing a better showing for Trump.

It's the idea of "Shy Trump voters" again. The guys at the Dornsife center do have a very worrying observation which they say supports the "Shy Trump voter" claim. They say if you ask people who they are voting for Biden has a 9-10 point lead but if you ask people who their friends and family are voting for then the lead is only 5-6 points. The conclusion being that people are more willing to say others are voting for Trump than that they are voting for Trump.