To Hormuz or not to Hormuz

The US Navy is now supposedly blockading the Straits of Hormuz in order to prevent Iranian ships from passing through. The Navy has reportedly seized at least one Iranian flagged ship.

The Iranians opened the straits for a short while but then closed them again. They have reportedly fired on at least one ship which was flying the Indian flag.

I have to say things like "supposedly" and "reportedly" because honestly, I don't know what the hell is actually going on, and it's next to impossible to figure out what reports to believe.

The ceasefire ends on Tuesday and talks are supposed to resume on Monday. We all saw how well talks went the last time around.

I suspect one of the problems is that Trump and company want a quick resolution while the Iranians want to drag things out and see how good a deal they can broker.

The market has pretty much recovered but we'll see what happens next week.

Genocidal, Apartheid, Colonialist

Genocidal, Apartheid and Colonialist are the three accusations that the US Left likes to toss against Israel. OK, Let's take a look.

Genocidal? The Palestinian population has increased 5x since 1967. That's not much of a genocide. 

Apartheid? The area is separated into three major regions. Gaza, Israel proper and the West Bank. Gaza is Palestinian and has a population of about 2.2 million. It's also controlled by the terrorist group Hamas. 

Israel has a population of 10 million of which 2 million are Palestinians. These Palestinians are Israeli citizens with full rights but face challenges similar to other ethnic minorities in other countries. 

The West Bank is further divided into Areas A, B and C as agreed to in the Oslo Accords in 1993. Area A is under the full control of the Palestinian Authority. Area B is under civil control of the Palestinian Authority but Israel provides security. Areas A & B have a population of around 3.3 million Palestinians. Area C is fully under Israeli control. There are about 400,000 Israeli settlers in Area C with Israeli citizenship and around 300,000 Palestinians with Palestinian Authority citizenship.

Travel for Palestinians within the West Bank, and between the West Bank and just about anywhere else, is severely restricted. The Israeli settlements in the West Bank are of questionable legality. The consensus of opinion is that they violate the Fourth Geneva Convention which prohibits an occupying power from transferring its civilians into occupied territory. Israel disputes this, arguing the territory is "disputed" rather than occupied.

Let's face it, Israel is an occupying power in the West Bank thus the extensive travel restrictions. Areas A&B are essentially isolated because they are surrounded by Israeli controlled territory. It's almost a military blockade but it's not apartheid. On the other hand, a country has the right to control who enters its territory. In other words, it's a royal mess.

Colonialist? Well, there are 400,000 Israeli settlers in Area C of the West Bank. Depending upon the legal status of Area C, that may well be colonialism.

Then there is East Jerusalem which was occupied by Israel during the 1967 war and officially annexed by it in 1980. The United Nations considers East Jerusalem as part of Palestinian Territories. Funny how no one complained when Jordan Annexed both the West Bank and East Jerusalem in 1950. The annexation was even recognized by the UK, Iraq and Pakistan. However Jordan essentially ceded sovereignty of the West Bank and East Jerusalem to the Palestinian Liberation Organization in 1988.

The Ignorance is Amazing

We all know that MAGAs simply parrot whatever they're told but the left isn't much better. They have evolved Israel into some imaginary bogeyman that, in their minds, has been pulling the strings in every confrontation the US has been involved in anywhere close to the Middle East.

For example, this post about wars that Israel has supposedly gotten the US into.

"Start with 9/11, Iraq, Syria, Libya, 

Afghanistan -20 YEARS.

Now Iran and who else???"

My response: (Yes, I got a little petulant because this isn't the first post like this)

What the hell are you talking about? Do yourself a favor and learn some actual history.

9/11 was an attack by Al-Qeada. It was primarily about US troops in Saudi Arabia although US support for Israel was also part of the motive. 

Let's face it, Arab Muslims in the Middle East have been trying to destroy Israel since 1948 and Arabs and Jews have been fighting over the region since at least the establishment of the Mandate for Palestine in 1922.

9/11 led directly to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Syria was all about ISIS and denying Russia control of the area.

The US has a strategic interest in the Middle East and has slowly been expanding its sphere of influence there. We have 50,000 troops spread out over Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. We also have friendly relations (in other words we give them money) with Israel and Egypt but no troops in either country. So Israel is just a small part of the total equation. 

Essentially you are blaming the mouse (Israel) for the actions of the elephant (the US).

Iran is the next logical step but it's a lot to chew off. US Presidents before Trump have been smart enough not to get into a confrontation because the geography is all in Iran's favor. 

Israel wants to eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah because they regularly fire missiles at Israel killing civilians. Imagine if Mexico and Canada fired missiles randomly at the US. Iran bankrolls Hamas and Hezbollah. I don't blame Israel for wanting to take down Iran. I blame Trump and Hegseth for letting Netanyahu talk them into thinking an air assault alone would manage to do that. We all see how well that worked out.

Which Libya are you talking about? In 1986 it was in retaliation for a Berlin bombing. In 2011 it was a UN sanctioned action that led to the fall of the Gaddafi regime. Israel wasn't involved in either of these two actions.

The Affordability Crisis

Prices jumped significantly between 2021 and 2023.

That price increase was driven by cost-push inflation. This occurs when production costs increase leading companies to increase prices. The primary driver for these increases was reestablishing supply lines after COVID.

But notice something. The supply lines have been reestablished but the prices didn't go back down. Instead they're now driving huge corporate profits.

Normal inflation is caused by demand-pull inflation which occurs when consumer demand exceeds available supply. When you raise salaries on a broad scale in order to try and catch up with cost-push inflation, it will often lead to demand-pull inflation because more people have more money to spend. 

But raising salaries will always outpace demand-pull inflation. When salaries fail to keep up with inflation it is almost always cost-push inflation that is causing the problem.

Ceasefire Crumbling

Apparently no one told Israel about the ceasefire. They continued their strikes in Lebanon so Iran shut the Straits of Hormuz again. Well, it was nice to have a couple of hours of peace.

This is going to send the market into a tailspin.

Ceasefire?

Trump claims to have signed a two week ceasefire with Iran tied to the opening of the Straits of Hormuz.

Can't wait to hear what the Iranians have to say about this two week ceasefire. 

In the meantime, Dow futures are up 800 points and Nasdaq futures are up 600 points so someone (I wonder who?) is making a ton of money.

Congress seriously needs to use these two weeks to impeach the crazy son of a bitch.

The 25th Amendment

Trump is becoming more and more unhinged. He has clearly lost it.

On Sunday he issued a profanity laced threat that no "leader" of a civilized nation should issue.

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP."

Add to this the fact that Hegseth has been forcing out senior military leaders and the situation is downright terrifying.

The 25th Amendment incudes procedures for a President who is physically, or mentally, incapacitated to step aside and allow the Vice President to take over.

Section 3 covers a voluntary action where the President himself declares to the Speaker of the House and President Pro Tempore of the Senate that he unable to perform his duties. The Vice President would take over until the President declares that he is again able to perform the duties of President.

Section 4 covers scenarios where the President is either unable to communicate or for the involuntary removal of a President for physical or mental reasons.

Who decides you ask? According to the Amendment, "the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide."

Since Congress hasn't provided for "such other body," most people interpret this to mean a majority of the cabinet.

Therein lies the 1st problem. Trump has chosen his cabinet for loyalty rather than competence. It seems unlikely a majority of them are going to declare him unfit.

If if Vance had the balls to initiate such an action (he doesn't), and even if he managed to get a majority of the cabinet to go along (he won't), Trump can contest it and declare that he is fit.

If that happens, which seems highly likely, "Congress shall decide the issue...by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office."

That seems really, really, unlikely.

The 25th Amendment clearly assumes that the VP, cabinet and Congress would place country over party and do the right thing. Unfortunately that may no longer be a valid assumption.

Trump's Speech

I listened to Trump's speech tonight. It was like listening to a six year old. A delusional six year old.

Honestly, I'm no wiser about what the hell is going on there because he provided absolutely no believable information. He also did a good job of insulting our European allies.

I cannot believe that someone actually allowed him to make this speech. I'd also like to know who wrote it. The bad news is that he's talking about the war continuing for another three to four weeks. That's not going to make the market happy.

I'm not sure what the hell comes next. The man is an absolute moron.

What's Going on in Iran?

That's a good question.

There isn't a lot of reliable information about the situation. The media is going wild and ushering in a new era of Yellow Journalism. They are publishing whatever they think will frighten the public and get the most clicks.

Trump has no idea what's going on and continues to make absurd proclamations. Hegseth uses briefings to play politics.

From what I can tell, Israel and the US are slowly dismantling Iran's ability to wage war. Israel, less squeamish than the US, has also been working on chopping off the head of the beast by eliminating Iran's leadership.

This could take a while and it's only been about three weeks. 

I would assume the ultimate objective is an Iranian government devoid of Islamic crazies that will cease to be a threat to the region and stop financing terrorist organization like Hezbollah and Hamas.

I don't see how that gets accomplished without a popular uprising.

The Stock Market is taking a beating due to rising oil and gas prices. Of course a higher than expected inflation report didn't help any. Overall the market is down about 5,000 points from its high in February. I'm personally down around $80,000 (ouch).

Right about now I see no end in sight but I suspect things will be settled by the summer one way or the other.