Is Trump Dying?

 I doubt it. I see these online pundits making dire predictions due to a few bruises, he gets words confused occasionally or because not all of his doctor visits are made public.

I love it when youngish people talk about older people. I was at my vascular surgeon in December to check on how my repaired arteries are doing. I'm not exactly sure of how we got there but he said to me "80 is not for the fainthearted." OK, I'm 77 so I might have a few years to go. Here's the problem, everything starts to break down and some days are worse than others. 

I feel it. My reflexes are still very good but they're not what they were even 10 years ago. My balance is still good but steps are a challenge. I get bruises on my arms of varying sizes and intensities. I have trouble recalling things that I used to know. Google is my best friend because now I often have to look up things that I  always knew. I use a calculator for things I used to easily do in my head. I have trouble solving problems that I'm pretty sure would have been trivial for me 10 or 20 years ago. I have no patience for leaning new things. I can't sprint. My left knee and left hip hurt. My right knee complains occasionally. I can't lift my left arm because my left shoulder is shot.

So I'm not convinced that Trump is close to the end. Remember he's two years older than I am plus he's clearly overweight, and may be obese, while my BMI is in the 22.5 range.

Second Person Killed by ICE

A second person has been killed by ICE in Minneapolis. His name was Alex Pretti. He was 37 years old and worked as a nurse.

As with Irene Good the administration immediately put out a "agents feared for their lives" story and vilified Pretti. He was carrying a 9 mm handgun with extra clips but he hand a valid conceeled carry license. 

Video from the incident appears to contradict the administration story. Pretti was carrying a woman when he tried to help a woman. He never appears to draw his weapon.

He is knocked to the ground by ICE agents and then one agent appears to take Pretti's gun.

Only then is he shot and killed.

This is ridiculous. The agents involved need to be taken off duty until after a full investigation. These ICE are clearly out of control are also clearly lacking in anything remotely like standard police training.

My Basement Leak V

The Flooring Guys showed up bright and early on January 2nd and did a nice job installing the flooring. The lead installer left us with some advice to put cups under the piano. Oh goody, something else to do.

The baseboards were, as promised, primed white and it was pretty clear they couldn't stay that way. We hopped over to the flooring store top pay our outstanding bill and they gave us a lead on a painter.

I decide to call a Handyman I had talked to previously instead. I called him on Monday, January 5th and left a message. I got a call back the next day and we set up an appointment for him to look at what was involved that Wednesday, January 7th.

We decided to do the baseboard the same color and finish that we had done the chair railing and decided to do the railings in the same color but with a semi-gloss finish. 

The piano presented a problem. We decided that we could live with leaving the baseboard behind the piano white if necessary. I also discovered a telephone wire coming out of the wall near the fireplace. I had no memory of this and I'm debating if I should clip it off or just leave it behind the bookcase that's going back in that spot. I'm leaning toward just hiding it behind the bookcase.

I got some cups and a small jack for lifting the piano to put them under the wheels. We shall see if that ever happens.

The Handyman showed up and inspected the task. He didn't seem too concerned about moving the piano but we shall see. We agreed that I would supply the paint.

On Tuesday, January 13th, I found an estimate for $720 which seemed reasonable so I accepted the bid. The next day we went to Home Depot to pick up the paint. That night I got a call from the Handyman and we set up an appointment for January 20th to do the job.

Woohoo!!! That's tomorrow. Hopefully all goes well.

<<To Be Continued>>

Update: The paint job went very well. I made one mistake though. We have a closet under the stairs and I didn't realize they put baseboards in the closet. So we have the original primed white there. Oh well. On to furniture shopping!

Woman Killed by ICE Agent II

More video of the incident has emerged and it's incredible how people will see what they want to see. Of course I'm not immune from this and neither is anyone else but I will try to be as impartial as I can.

I've watched videos from several angles repeatedly and here is my interpretation of the incident. The key individuals in the incident are Renee Nicole Wood who was in her Honda Pilot and Jonathan E. Ross who fired the fatal shots.

Ms. Good was using her car to interfere with ICE agent operation. Her wife was doing anything she could to incite the agents.

One agent apparently gets fed up with the antics, yells at Good to get out of the car and attempts to open the driver side door but it's locked. Good's wife tries to get into the passenger side but that door is also locked. Ross is near the front of the car video taping.

Good has by this point stacked up at least two charges. She is interfering with police operations by blocking the road and has refused a lawful order to exit her vehicle (see Pennsylvania v. Mimms).

Good now apparently chooses to flee the area. This adds a third charge of fleeing and eluding. She steps on the gas, turns the wheel to the right and strikes Ross who has moved to the left front of the car. This is battery on a Law Enforcement Officer with a deadly weapon.

This is where things get a little fuzzy. When was the first of the three shots fired? If it was fired prior to contact, or during contact, then it's self defense and justified. If it's fired after the danger has passed and Good is already fleeing then it is unjustified use of lethal force.

The key court case here is Tennessee v. Garner where the SCOTUS ruled that the Fourth Amendment prohibits the use of deadly force unless it is necessary to prevent the escape of a fleeing felon and the officer has probable cause to believe that the suspect poses a significant threat of violence to the officer or the community. 

It looks to me that the front of the car has already passed Ross and that Good was clearly in the act of fleeing the scene before the first shot is fired. Clearly, the other two shots were fired after the immediate danger had passed.

But it's close. It's a matter of one or two seconds and maybe not even that much. Can we seriously hold a human being, even one supposedly highly trained, to that sort of accuracy?

I don't know. But what I do know is that it's up to a jury to decide. Ross should be arrested and charged with either 2nd degree murder or voluntary manslaughter, a Grand Jury should decide whether he should be indicted and a jury of his peers should decide if he's guilty. I don't understand why this isn't happening.

College Football Playoffs III

I said nothing about College Football this year and now the playoffs are upon us. I figure the least I can do is document the results.

OK, the 1st round.

(9) Alabama - 34 (8) Oklahoma - 24

(5) Oregon - 51 (12) James Madison - 34

(6) Mississippi - 41 (11) Tulane - 10

(10) Miami - 10 (7) Texas A&M - 3

Now, moving on to the Quarterfinals. Last year all four teams with a bye lost so there was some concern moving forward.

Cotton Bowl

(10) Miami - 24 (2) Ohio State - 14

Orange Bowl

(5) Oregon - 23 (4) Texas Tech - 0

Rose Bowl

(1) Indiana - 38 (9) Alabama - 3

Sugar Bowl

(6) Mississippi - 39 (3) Georgia 34

Well, three of the top four seeds lost. That's better than last year but we're still talking about a 1-7 record. 

The semi-finals. Shall I choose? I'm thinking Indiana and Miami. Isn't Thursday night a funny time to play? It's because the NFL Wildcard games are on Saturday in the 8 PM slot.

Fiesta Bowl - Thursday 1/8, 7:30 PM

(6) Mississippi - 27 (10) Miami - 31

This was a crazy see-saw game with four lead changes in the 4th quarter and a Hail Mary falling incomplete on the last play. Well, I'm 1-0.

Peach Bowl - Friday 1/9, 7:30 PM

(1) Indiana - 56 (5) Oregon - 22

This one surprised me a bit. I thought this was going to be closer game. It would have been if it wasn't for four turnovers including a blocked punt and a pick-6 on the first play of the game. Anyway, I'm 2-0.

National Championship - Monday 1/19, 7:30 PM

(10) Miami vs (1) Indiana

Hard to pick against Indiana and I'm not going to but Miami has been on a roll so who knows? I'm still going with Indiana.

College Football Playoffs II

I said nothing about College Football this year and now the playoffs are upon us. I figure the least I can do is document the results.

OK, the 1st round.

(9) Alabama - 34 (8) Oklahoma - 24

(5) Oregon - 51 (12) James Madison - 34

(6) Mississippi - 41 (11) Tulane - 10

(10) Miami - 10 (7) Texas A&M - 3

Now, moving on to the Quarterfinals. Last year all four teams with a bye lost so there was some concern moving forward.

Cotton Bowl

(10) Miami - 24 (2) Ohio State - 14

Orange Bowl

(5) Oregon - 23 (4) Texas Tech - 0

Rose Bowl

(1) Indiana - 38 (9) Alabama - 3

Sugar Bowl

(6) Mississippi - 39 (3) Georgia 34

Well, three of the top four seeds lost. That's better than last year but we're still talking about a 1-7 record. 

The semi-finals.

Fiesta Bowl - Thursday 1/8, 7:30 PM

(6) Mississippi - 27 (10) Miami - 31

This was a crazy see-saw game with four lead changes in the 4th quarter and a Hail Mary falling incomplete on the last play. Well, I'm 1-0.

Peach Bowl - Friday 1/9, 7:30 PM

(1) Indiana vs (5) Oregon

Shall I choose? I'm thinking Indiana and Miami. Isn't Thursday night a funny time to play? It's because the NFL Wildcard games are on Saturday in the 8 PM slot.

Woman Killed by ICE Agent

An American citizen, by the name of Renee Nicole Good, was shot and killed by an ICE agent during a confrontation in Minneapolis.

Exactly what occurred is unclear but video from the incident shows an ICE agent talking to Good in her car. The car then backs away from the agent but shots were already being fired.

It looked to me like Good was trying to flee the encounter. I saw no immediate danger to the ICE agent. She was leaving the area. There was no immediate danger so the use of deadly was unjustified. Real police understand this. Poorly trained ICE goons obviously do not.

The ICE agent needs to be arrested and charged with 2nd Degree Murder. Whether to indict or not will be left up to a Grand Jury.

Update: A second video makes it even clearer that Good was attempting to flee the area and, in this video, it appears that that first shots aren't fired until after she begins to pull away.

College Football Playoffs

 I said nothing about College Football this year and now the playoffs are upon us. I figure the least I can do is document the results.

OK, the 1st round.

(9) Alabama - 34 (8) Oklahoma - 24

(5) Oregon - 51 (12) James Madison - 34

(6) Mississippi - 41 (11) Tulane - 10

(10) Miami - 10 (7) Texas A&M - 3

Now, moving on to the Quarterfinals. Last year all four teams with a bye lost so there was some concern moving forward.

Cotton Bowl

(10) Miami - 24 (2) Ohio State - 14

Orange Bowl

(5) Oregon - 23 (4) Texas Tech - 0

Rose Bowl

(1) Indiana - 38 (9) Alabama - 3

Sugar Bowl

(6) Mississippi - 39 (3) Georgia 34

Well, three of the top four seeds lost. That's better than last year but we're still talking about a 1-7 record. 

The semi-finals.

Fiesta Bowl - Thursday 1/8, 7:30 PM

(6) Mississippi vs (10) Miami

Peach Bowl - Friday 1/9, 7:30 PM

(1) Indiana vs (5) Oregon

Shall I choose? I'm thinking Indiana and Miami. Isn't Thursday night a funny time to play? It's because the NFL Wildcard games are on Saturday in the 8 PM slot.

Maduro

I know I've been falling down on the down and allowing too much stuff to slide by. I'm just tired.

So, Trump actually sent a military mission to Venezuela, arrested (kidnapped?) Nicolás Maduro and his wife to face drug charges here in the US and flattened a few installations killing some people here and there, mostly there.

I don't know what to make of this. I suppose we will have to wait and see.

Universal Healthcare (again)

Let me start by saying that I think Universal Healthcare would be a good thing. I just think it's complicated.

 First of all, health care is NOT free any place in the world. When people talk about “free” healthcare what they mean is that you don’t pay for it at the point of service.

Basically everyone chips in all the time whether you’re using medical care or not in the same way that everyone pays their insurance premiums whether they’re using the benefits or not.

The BIG difference is the government doesn’t have to make a profit while insurance companies typically do.

I saw someone say “Americans could decide today to have free healthcare.” Aside from my previous point that it’s NOT free, there are some issues. Note that none of these issues are insurmountable if the will is there but they need to be adequately studied and addressed.

Now for some back of the envelope calculations.

Let’s start with the cost. What we spend as of 2021: Medicare $901 billion, Medicaid $734 billion, Private Health Insurance Spending $1,211 billion, out of pocket $433 billion. That's a total of almost $3.3 trillion.

A University of Massachusetts study showed that we would save $5.1 trillion over 10 years in healthcare costs with Universal Healthcare. That would bring the total cost down to about $2.8 trillion per year. We’re already spending $1.6 trillion in Medicare and Medicaid so that leaves a potential shortfall of $1.2 trillion.

But going to a single payer government healthcare plan is going to save employers what they’re now paying for employee healthcare insurance so a reasonable place to go for additional funding would be a per employee payroll tax. There are about 160 million workers in the US so that’s about $7,500 per employee. Employers are paying between $6,800 and $7,500 per employee now so let’s assume a payroll tax of $6,000. That leaves us short by $1,500 per employee or about $240 billion.

The US Income tax revenue is $4.9 trillion so that would mean about a 5% tax increase across the board.

All of the above might cover the cost but lots of luck getting this through Congress.

Second, we provide universal healthcare for no cost at the point of use and the demand for healthcare services is going to skyrocket. I don’t think that’s going to affect the cost much but it could reduce the quality of service and it will put an enormous strain on our medical infrastructure. I’m not sure it can handle the additional load. So that might mean a required investment in additional infrastructure of an unknown amount of money.

Third, we need to be careful about assuming what works in Canada (42 million people), the UK (70 million people) or even Germany (84 million people) is going to scale to a nation of 340 million people spread out over a ridiculous amount of area. Russia has 145 million people and is bigger than the US but does anyone really want healthcare on a par with Russia? The Chinese arguably have it worse than the US since reportedly often only about half of medical costs are covered (I don’t know how true this is. I’m relying on Google).

So it’s not like flipping a switch. There’s a lot of preliminary work to be done in order to put together a workable strategy. What the government should be doing is organizing a committee of experts, medical, educational, financial and tax, to study the problem for a year and produce a set of recommendations.

I suspect that will never happen with either the Republicans or the Democrats in charge.

My Basement Leak IV

Just a quick little update.

It's Monday, December 22nd and, since there is nothing on the calendar, we decide to go to Barnes & Nobles to look for some books for the kids for Christmas.

Yeah, us and everyone else in Northern New Jersey. The place was packed which I suppose is too be expected three days before Christmas.

We succeeded in our quest and then stopped off for a leisurely lunch.

When we got home we found a message from the flooring guys which indicated that they wanted to schedule the installation.

Hey, cool. So I called them back and they asked if they could install the flooring and carpeting for the short flight of stairs the next day, December 23rd. We had nothing planned so I said, "why not" and they indicated they would be there the next afternoon. That word "afternoon" should have set off alarm bells.

Anyway, we moved the loose stuff into the other half of the basement and took apart the cabinet. But when I took a closer look at the cabinet I realized that flooring might cause the fittings to no longer line up. My wife agreed so we decided to tell them to end the flooring where the cabinet started but to put a thin piece in the space between the cabinet and the fireplace.

Around noon the next day, two guys showed up carrying what looked to me like a really big piece of carpet with our name on it. I wondered about that but started in on my speech about what to do near the cabinet.

That's when they stopped me and explained that they were only there to do the steps. I suppose everybody is a specialist these days.

It took them about two hours to finish and yes, there was a lot of carpet left over. 

But now it's after 2 PM and the next day was Christmas Eve. I wondered how long this installation was going to take?

Around 3:45 PM it became pretty obvious that no one was coming but I figured I'd call and ask just in case. I was assured they had been delayed but would be there within a half hour.

The half hour came and went and, unsurprisingly, no one showed up. The place had closed at four so I got no answer when I called to verify that we would have to reschedule.

So, I had a $1,000 deposit floating in the wind. This was different from the Old Basement Guys though because the stairs were done and the estimate for that was $1,119 so I figured that I was $119 ahead.

They were closed Christmas Eve and Christmas so I gave them a call on Friday, December 26th. I got lots of apologies and a promise that they would call me back once they checked the schedule.

Nope, no call back. So I called again on Saturday, December 27th. We went over possible dates and, again, I got a promise of a call back. But, this time they called back and we agreed on January 2nd, in the morning this time.

So I suppose that we shall see.

In the meantime the check from the Old Basement Guys appears to have cleared so, hopefully, I'm done with them forever.

<<To Be Continued>>