Monday, June 15, 2026

The Iranian Deal

According to Trump, he has made a deal to end the fighting in the Middle East. Unfortunately, no one has seen the text of the deal and we're hearing contradictory things from Trump and JD Vance.

The best I can make of it is:

(1) The Strait of Hormuz gets opened but it's unclear if there will be tolls or not.

(2) If Iran doesn't rebuild its nuclear capability then it get access to money? I'm reading between the lines here.

(3) If it does rebuild its nuclear capability then it doesn't get access?

(4) The Gulf States and the US, according to JD Vance, are putting together a $300 billion fund to help rebuild Iranian infrastructure. I assume this is the money they get access to plus the $100 billion currently frozen but I'm not sure. Trump has denied that such a fund exists.

(5) If the Israelis keep attacking Lebanon then the deal is off, and the Israelis haven't agreed to stop doing so because they're not signatories to the deal.

As you can see from the above, I don't really know a whole hell of a lot and apparently neither do the Israelis who claim they haven't seen the deal either.

More to follow when more information is available.

Saturday, June 13, 2026

The World Cup 2026 II

 On to the next three days. You notice I'm not making any predictions because that would just make me look foolish.

Group A                      MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts       

  • Mexico                    1     1   0    0   2     0      2    3
  • South Korea          1     1   0    0   2     1       1     3
  • Czechia                   1     0   0   1    1     1      -1    0
  • South Africa          1     0   0   1    0     2     -2    0

Group B                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Canada                   1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
  • Bos and Herz        1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
  • Qatar                      1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
  • Switzerland           1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1

Group C                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Scotland                1     1    0   0    1     0      1     3
  • Brazil                     1     0    1   0    1     1       0     1
  • Morocco                1     0    1   0    1     1       0     1
  • Haiti                       1     0   0   1    0     1      -1     0

Group D                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • United States       1     1   0   0   4      1      3      3
  • Australia               1     1   0   0   2     0      2      3
  • Turkiye                 1      0   1   0   0     2     -2     0
  • Paraguay              1      0   0   1   1      4     -3     0

Group E                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Germany              1      1   0   0   7      1      6      3
  • Ivory Coast          1      1   0   0   1      0      1      3
  • Ecuador               1      0   0   1   0      1     -1      0
  • Curacao                1     0   0   1    1      7     -6     0

Group F                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Sweden                1       1   0  0    5     1      4     3
  • Netherlands        1      0   1   0    2     2     0     1
  • Japan                   1       0   1   0   2     2     0     1
  • Tunisia                1       0   0   1   1     1     -4     0

Group G                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Iran                       1      0   1   0   2     2      0     1
  • New Zealand       1      0   1   0   2     2      0     1
  • Belgium               1      0   1    0   1      1      0     1
  • Egypt                    1      0   1    0   1      1      0     1

Group H                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Saudi Arabia         1     0    1   0   1      1      0     1
  • Uruguay                 1     0    1   0   1      1      0     1
  • Spain                      1     0    1   0    0     0     0     1
  • Capo Verde           1     0    1   0    0     0     0     1

Group I                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts
  • France                 0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Senegal               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Iraq                      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Norway               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group J                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Argentina           0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Algeria                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Austria                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Jordan                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group K                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Portugal               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • DR Congo            0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Uzbekistan          0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Colombia             0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group L                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • England                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Croatia                  0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Ghana                   0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Panama                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
June 14th Games
Australia-2 Turkiye-0
Germany-7 Curacao-1
Netherlands-2 Japan-2
Ivory Coast-1 Ecuador-0
Sweden-5 Tunisia-1

June 15th Games
Spain-0 Capo Verde-0
Belgium-1 Egypt-1
Saudi Arabia-1 Uruguay-1
Iran vs New Zealand

June 16th Games
France vs Senegal
Iraq vs Norway
Argentina vs Algeria

Thursday, June 11, 2026

How Social Security Works

 I continue to be amazed at how many people have a mistaken impression of how Social Security operates.

Legally, Social Security is required to invest in special-issue US Treasury Bonds. And no, Social Security revenue NEVER contributes to the General Fund, so it has absolutely nothing to do with the deficit or the debt. Here's how Social Security operates: 

All revenue collected is first used to pay current benefits. If there is a surplus, it goes into the Social Security Trust Fund which, by law, is invested in special-issue US Treasury Bonds because it is considered the safest investment and CAN NEVER LOSE MONEY. These aren't just IOUs, but blue chip financial investments. These bonds collect interest which also goes into the Social Security Trust fund. What is special about these bonds is that they can be redeemed at anytime at par value. In other words, they're basically cash collecting interest.

If there is not enough to cover current benefits, then first interest, and then bonds, from the Trust Fund are used to meet the shortfall. 

Up until 2010 Social Security was taking in more money than it was paying out, so the Trust Fund was growing and all interest was reinvested back into the fund.

After 2010 Social Security used interest from the Trust Fund to make up the shortfall in tax revenue rather than investing that interest back into the Trust Fund. The Trust Fund reached a maximum size of about $2.9 trillion in 2020. 

Starting in 2021 the shortfall exceed both the tax revenue and the Trust Fund interest so Social Security began cashing in bonds to make up the shortfall. The Trust Fund currently contains approximately $2.56 trillion.

Unless either (1) more revenue is added or (2) expenses are reduced or (3) some combination of more revenue and reduced expenses is implemented, the Trust Fund is expected to be exhausted in 2032. At that time benefits will have to be reduced by about 22% to match what's being collected in tax revenues.

Wednesday, June 10, 2026

The World Cup 2026

Despite Trump's attempts to fuck it up, the World Cup appears to be alive and well and the games will start tomorrow. Here are the Groups. 

Group A                      MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts       

  • Mexico                    1     1   0    0   2     0      2    3
  • South Korea          1     1   0    0   2     1       1     3
  • Czechia                   1     0   0   1    1     1      -1    0
  • South Africa          1     0   0   1    0     2     -2    0

Group B                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Canada                   1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
  • Bos and Herz        1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
  • Qatar                      1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
  • Switzerland           1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1

Group C                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Scotland                1     1    0   0    1     0      1     3
  • Brazil                     1     0    1   0    1     1       0     1
  • Morocco                1     0    1   0    1     1       0     1
  • Haiti                       1     0   0   1    0     1      -1     0

Group D                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • United States       1     1   0   0   4      1      3      3
  • Australia              0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Turkiye                 0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Paraguay              1      0   0   1   1      4     -3     0

Group E                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Germany              0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Curacao                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Ivory Coast          0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Ecuador               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group F                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Netherlands        0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Japan                   0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Sweden                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Tunisia                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group G                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Belgium               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Egypt                    0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Iran                      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • New Zealand      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group H                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Spain                    0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Capo Verde         0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Saudi Arabia      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Uruguay              0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
Group I                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts
  • France                 0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Senegal               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Iraq                      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Norway               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group J                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Argentina           0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Algeria                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Austria                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Jordan                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group K                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Portugal               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • DR Congo            0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Uzbekistan          0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Colombia             0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group L                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • England                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Croatia                  0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Ghana                   0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Panama                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
June 11th Games
Mexico-3 South Africa-0
South Korea-2 Czechnia-1

June 12th Games
Canada-1 Bos and Herz-1
USA-4 Paraguay-1

June 13th Games
Qatar-1 Switzerland-1
Brazil-1 Morocco-1
Haiti-0 Scotland-1

Sunday, May 31, 2026

Islamophobia

Yes, I'm Islamophobic. I don't trust Muslims. I've been fighting them for too long and I at least have not forgotten 9-11.

Islam is both a religion and a political philosophy, and that political philosophy is antithetical to western democracy. So now what do we do? As an atheist, in many Islamic countries, I could be arrested and face any number of legal penalties up to and including the death penalty. These countries include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen and areas of Nigeria. Iran and Saudi Arabia still hold public executions. 

Then there is the  status of LGBTQ people in Islamic countries.  In several nations, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and the United Arab Emirates, homosexuality is illegal and can carry the death penalty.  Other countries, such as Kuwait, Egypt, and Syria, do not have the death penalty for homosexuality, but heavily criminalize it. Being gay can lead to imprisonment or prosecution under "public morality" laws. Gays are regularly murdered in Gaza by Hamas and by ISIS.

This is why I shake my head when I see these young college students wearing the keffiyeh while having no idea about the culture of what they're supporting.

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Is Christopher Nolan's the Odyssey a Big Deal?

It's a movie. How big a deal can it be? The better question is, will it be a success or a flop?

The problem is interference with immersion in the story. The costumes, (Batman at the siege of Troy?), the props (a Viking Longship?) and the dialogue (sounds like a surfing movie) are all going to disrupt the story immersion. 

Maybe we'll get used to all of this in the first 10 minutes and then it won't matter. Or perhaps it will be so bad that audiences will leave the theater not entirely certain what they just watched. I honestly don't know. I'll tell you one thing, if the whole movie is as dismal as the trailer, then it's going to destroy tourism to Greece for decades.

I really don't understand what Nolan is aiming for here. 

My original thought was that none of the online criticism was going to matter all that much, but now, I'm beginning to wonder. 

Still, if I was a betting man, I would still bet on the movie making lots of money unless there are serious flaws that we're not aware of yet. The drop off after the first weekend should tell the tale.

Monday, May 25, 2026

On Translations

 One of the things some people are complaining about with Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is the translation that he is reportedly relying upon. He is supposedly using Emily Wilson 2017 translation which some people seem to like and others don't like.

I haven't read it so I can't speak from from personal experience. I did watch a video defending the translations and claiming that it was truer to the original text. The example she gave was the word "kynopis" which, apparently, literally means "dog-faced." It is generally considered derogatory and often translated as "shameless." 

Helen of Troy uses the term referring to herself in Book 4 and Emily Wilson has, according to the woman making the video, translated it literally while previous translations have made it into a form of self-condemnation and translating it as Helen criticizing herself as "shameless."

The are three main methods for translating something.

1. Word-for-Word (Formal Equivalence)

This method stays as close to the original text as feasible. This sounds like the path that Wilson took, at least in this example. The problem with a word-for-word translation is that it can leave modern readers scratching their heads when they come across phrases or idioms that are no longer in use. In this example, "dog-faced" would probably be a tad confusing.

2. Thought-for-Thought (Dynamic Equivalence)

This method prioritizes translating the meaning of a passage rather than sticking strictly to individual words. This is what translators are doing in this example when they translate "kynopis" as "shameless." The criticism of this method is that different translators may interpret the meaning of different passages differently.

3. Paraphrase (Free Translation)

Instead of translating directly from the original language, these versions rephrase the text into a conversational, interpretive format. I've always considered this Dynamic Equivalence on steroids and clearly risks loosing the meaning of the text through interpretation.

Each of these methods have champions and detractors. So, staying truer to the actual text may, or may not, be a virtue.

Update: I got a bit more detail on the actual translation that Wilson uses. Apparently it was “They made my face the cause that hounded them.”

The problem with translating "kynopis" as "hounded" rather than "shameless" or "wanton," is it changes the line from self reflection and taking at least some of the blame for the war into essentially blaming everyone else.  Fitzgerald renders the line as "...that year the Akhaian host made war on Troy—daring all for the wanton that I was.” 

Helen therefore appears to take some responsibility for running off with Paris even if she was under Aphrodite's control. I like that Helen better than Wilson's Helen even if she was being too hard on herself.