Allan Lichtman on the Senate

The historian and political analyst Allan Lichtman on the 2026 race for the Senate and I figured that I would capture that for future reference. Here is what he is saying about the competitive races.

Seats that he predicts that Democrats will hold.

New Hampshire - Democrat Chris Pappas

Michigan - Democrat Abdul El-Sayed

Seats that he predicts Democrats will flip.

Maine - Democrat Troy Jackson

North Carolina - Democrat Roy Cooper

Ohio - Democrat Sherrod Brown

Texas - Democrat Janes Talarico

Alaska - Democrat Mary Peltola

So that would make it 52-48 in favor of the Democrats.

I have the same fundamental problem here. Lichtman is placing a lot of importance on the horrible poll numbers for Trump. But being mad at Trump, and not voting Republican are two different things. I don't think the Democrats are going to take Maine or Texas and they may not take Alaska. I don't think they're going to hold Michigan either.

That would make it 51-49 or 52-49 for the GOP depending on Alaska.

Trump's Take on the Polls.

In an interview with Newsmax Trump made his view clear that "They're rigged. They're rigged polls."

He went on to explain that polling can suppress turnout by showing a candidate either so far behind that supporters believe voting is pointless or so far ahead that they believe victory is assured.

He's certainly right about that. I've made the point on a number of occasions in the past and all over the internet people are warning Dem supporters not to get complacent.

"So they're doing it to discourage people from voting. They're doing it deliberately," Trump said.

The problem is there are an awful lot of polls and they're pretty much showing the same thing. Still, the ghost of 2016 still haunts the political arena and there are some polls that disagree.

I stand by my three concerns.

(1) I don't think historical trends matter in this new political environment.

(2) Disliking Trump and not voting Republican are two different things.

(3) The Democrats strike me as brain dead. They're campaigning on two basic points. The first is "Trump Big Bad" and the second is "We're going to give people free stuff." I just don't think that's enough.

Obviously, this could just be my distrust of polls and my natural pessimism talking. I'm especially leery about the Senate races. I suspect that the Dems will take the House, but the Senate, I'm not so sure.

I suppose we shall see.

An Ice Raid on Ilhan Oman

 ICE raided the home of Ilhan Omar. Federal agents reportedly searched her home in a criminal investigation related to claims that she or her father may have lied on immigration paperwork when they sought to secure legal status in the U.S. decades earlier.

Who is making these claims is not clear. One item coming out of this is that Omar updated her date of birth in Congressional records from 10/4/1981 to 10/4/1982.

What makes this tricky is that American citizenship is based upon her being under 18 when her father got citizenship. As a minor she would be included. But if she was 18 or older, then she have to file on her own.

Omar's father obtained citizenship in 2000. A little basic arithmetic would tell you that, if she was born in 1981, then there is no way that she could have been under 18 at then time. Changing the date to 1982 resolves the problem.

I'm not sure how one resolves this without some sort of independent documentation because everything we have appears to be self reported. 

I suppose it's a matter of consistency. If every other reported date, driver's license, Social Security and school records, indicates 1982, then the 1981 date was simply an error despite the curious coincidence of it making her citizenship valid or not. If all the other dates are 1981, then that could be an issue.

I think it's most likely that the one date of 1981 was in error. Why bother to lie on the application for citizenship? Besides, they must have realized that there were other self reported dates that could be checked.

I suspect this particular issue is going nowhere. As for any other claims about falsifying immigration papers, I have no idea what they are so I suppose we shall see.

CNN on the Midterms

CNN has this really annoying "data analyst" by the name of Harry Enten that has been giving his take on the midterms. I don't like his broadcast manner. He sounds like a bit of a jerk to me.

However, that doesn't mean that he doesn't know what he's doing so I thought that I would capture his current thoughts.

He has presented it in terms of the probability of the possible outcomes.

Possibility #4 - <1% Probability

GOP House and Dem Senate

Possibility #3 - 11% Probability

GOP House and GOP Senate

Possibility #2 - 22% Probability

Dem House and GOP Senate

Possibility #1 - 67% Probability

Dem House and Dem Senate

OK, let's not forget that Hillary Clinton had an 80% chance in 2016. 

I have three problems with Enten's predictions. 

The first is that he seems to rely somewhat on historical trends. I don't think historical trends matter in this new political environment. Things have never been as polarized as they are now.

The second is that he's assuming because Trump is so currently unpopular that will lead to people abandoning the GOP or at least not showing up to support it. I don't know about that. Disliking Trump and not voting Republican are two different things.

The third is that the Democrats strike me as brain dead. They're campaigning on two basic points. The first is "Trump Big Bad" and the second is "We're going to give people free stuff." We'll see how well that works out.

The Midterm Stretch II

We're going to see if anything has changed from a week ago.

Still going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket. Bold = Change, Bold + Italics = Gain.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 189 (+4), Tossups - 20 (-4)

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 46 (+1), Tossups - 8 (-1)

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, IA, ME

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.1% (-0.1), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.1)

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 48.8% (-0.2), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.2)

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 63% (-2), Paxton (R) - 38% (+1)

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.4% (+0.6), Rogers (R) - 45.7% (+1.5)

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1% (+0.3), Rogers (R) - 45.7% (+1.3)

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 63% (-4), Rogers (R) - 33% (+5)

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 53.3% (+1.6), Blakeman (R) - 40.5% (+0.2)

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 52.8% (+0.1), Blakeman (R) - 40.4% (+0.5)

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 96%, Blakeman (R) - 4% 

Looks like a few more people making decisions and some GOP gains. More on this next week.

The Midterm Stretch

Well, here we go, less than a month to the midterms.

The polls say the Dems are going to have a big night but I'm not so sure. Hating Trump and not voting Republican are two different things.

I'm going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 185, Tossups - 24

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 45, Tossups - 9

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, IA, ME

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.2%, Paxton (R) - 45.4%

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 49.0%, Paxton (R) - 45.5%

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 65%, Paxton (R) - 37%

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 47.8%, Rogers (R) - 44.2%

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1%, Rogers (R) - 44.4%

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 73%, Rogers (R) - 28%

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 51.7%, Blakeman (R) - 40.3%

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 52.7%, Blakeman (R) - 39.9%

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 96%, Blakeman (R) - 4%

Happy Birthday to Me!

Happy birthday to me! Happy birthday to me,  and so on, and so forth. It's the big 78th Birthday. Honestly, I never thought that I would make it this far.

Of course, I'm falling apart, slowly but surely. OK, enough with the bitching and moaning.

Pete Buttigieg's Interview

 I was watching an interview with Pete Buttigieg about what the Democrats should do if they gain back the House.

I generally agreed with his idea of a series of small revenue bills addressing popular things. Such as raising taxes on the wealthy, restoring the Child Tax Credit, restoring the AMA subsidies. He warned against simply going back to the way things were.

I don't know how to tell you this Bill, but bringing back the Child Tax Credit, restoring the ACA subsidies and raising the minimum wage all have the possibility of increasing inflation and inflation is the one biggest thing that hurts people like us, retired couples, the most. 

So why should I vote for Democrats if I'm going to get hurt? I didn't hear anything about eliminating taxes on Social Security or insuring the program will continue to be viable. What about addressing drug prices and adding dental to Medicare? 

There are 73 million Americans on Social Security and you're ignoring them. Then you wonder why senior citizens don't vote for you. 46 million used the CTC and about 22 million got AMA subsidies. Even if there weren't significant overlap between those two groups, and there almost certainly is, that's 73 million to 68 million. Then you wonder why you lose elections. 

The Lone Juror

The lone holdout juror in the Lindsay Clancy has become something of a celebrity especially as he turned out to be a black man in his thirties that describes himself as a Black Conservative Republican.

As I said before, half the country wants to tar and feather him and the other half wants to hold him a ticker tape parade.

I wasn't in the courtroom, so I really have little basic for coming to a conclusion, but I think this guy should be applauded for sticking to his decision holding out against the mob.

In other Clancy trial news, her husband, Patrick, has apparently retained council and may be going after the people on social media that have been saying that he murdered the three children.

Good for him. These clowns need to understand that you can't just defame people online without consequences.

Given all the publicity, finding an unbiased jury for a second trial is going to be tricky.