How Social Security Works

 I continue to be amazed at how many people have a mistaken impression of how Social Security operates.

Legally, Social Security is required to invest in special-issue US Treasury Bonds. And no, Social Security revenue NEVER contributes to the General Fund, so it has absolutely nothing to do with the deficit or the debt. Here's how Social Security operates: 

All revenue collected is first used to pay current benefits. If there is a surplus, it goes into the Social Security Trust Fund which, by law, is invested in special-issue US Treasury Bonds because it is considered the safest investment and CAN NEVER LOSE MONEY. These aren't just IOUs, but blue chip financial investments. These bonds collect interest which also goes into the Social Security Trust fund. What is special about these bonds is that they can be redeemed at anytime at par value. In other words, they're basically cash collecting interest.

If there is not enough to cover current benefits, then first interest, and then bonds, from the Trust Fund are used to meet the shortfall. 

Up until 2010 Social Security was taking in more money than it was paying out, so the Trust Fund was growing and all interest was reinvested back into the fund.

After 2010 Social Security used interest from the Trust Fund to make up the shortfall in tax revenue rather than investing that interest back into the Trust Fund. The Trust Fund reached a maximum size of about $2.9 trillion in 2020. 

Starting in 2021 the shortfall exceed both the tax revenue and the Trust Fund interest so Social Security began cashing in bonds to make up the shortfall. The Trust Fund currently contains approximately $2.56 trillion.

Unless either (1) more revenue is added or (2) expenses are reduced or (3) some combination of more revenue and reduced expenses is implemented, the Trust Fund is expected to be exhausted in 2032. At that time benefits will have to be reduced by about 22% to match what's being collected in tax revenues.

The World Cup 2026

Despite Trump's attempts to fuck it up, the World Cup appears to be alive and well and the games will start tomorrow. Here are the Groups. 

Group A                      MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts       

• Mexico                    1     1   0    0   2     0      2    3
• South Korea          1     1   0   0    2     1       1    3
• Czechia                   1     0   0   1    1     1      -1    0
• South Africa          1     0   0   1    0     2     -2    0

Group B                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Canada                   0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Bos and Herz        0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Qatar                      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Switzerland           0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group C                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Brazil                      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Morocco                 0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Haiti                       0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Scotland                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group D                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• United States       0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Paraguay              0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Australia              0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Turkey                  0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group E                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Germany              0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Curacao                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Ivory Coast          0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Ecuador               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group F                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Netherlands        0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Japan                   0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Sweden                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Tunisia                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group G                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Belgium               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Egypt                    0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Iran                      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• New Zealand      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group H                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Spain                    0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Cape Verde         0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Saudi Arabia      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Uruguay              0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group I                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• France                 0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Senegal               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Iraq                      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Norway               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group J                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Argentina           0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Algeria                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Austria                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Jordan                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group K                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Portugal               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• DR Congo            0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Uzbekistan          0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Colombia             0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group L                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• England                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Croatia                  0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Ghana                   0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
• Panama                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

June 11th Games

Mexico-3 South Africa-0

South Korea-2 Czechnia-1

June 12th Games

Canada vs Bos and Herz

USA vs Paraquay

June 13th Games

Qatar vs Switzerland

Brazil vs Morocco

Islamophobia

Yes, I'm Islamophobic. I don't trust Muslims. I've been fighting them for too long and I at least have not forgotten 9-11.

Islam is both a religion and a political philosophy, and that political philosophy is antithetical to western democracy. So now what do we do? As an atheist, in many Islamic countries, I could be arrested and face any number of legal penalties up to and including the death penalty. These countries include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen and areas of Nigeria. Iran and Saudi Arabia still hold public executions. 

Then there is the  status of LGBTQ people in Islamic countries.  In several nations, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and the United Arab Emirates, homosexuality is illegal and can carry the death penalty.  Other countries, such as Kuwait, Egypt, and Syria, do not have the death penalty for homosexuality, but heavily criminalize it. Being gay can lead to imprisonment or prosecution under "public morality" laws. Gays are regularly murdered in Gaza by Hamas and by ISIS.

This is why I shake my head when I see these young college students wearing the keffiyeh while having no idea about the culture of what they're supporting.

Is Christopher Nolan's the Odyssey a Big Deal?

It's a movie. How big a deal can it be? The better question is, will it be a success or a flop?

The problem is interference with immersion in the story. The costumes, (Batman at the siege of Troy?), the props (a Viking Longship?) and the dialogue (sounds like a surfing movie) are all going to disrupt the story immersion. 

Maybe we'll get used to all of this in the first 10 minutes and then it won't matter. Or perhaps it will be so bad that audiences will leave the theater not entirely certain what they just watched. I honestly don't know. I'll tell you one thing, if the whole movie is as dismal as the trailer, then it's going to destroy tourism to Greece for decades.

I really don't understand what Nolan is aiming for here. 

My original thought was that none of the online criticism was going to matter all that much, but now, I'm beginning to wonder. 

Still, if I was a betting man, I would still bet on the movie making lots of money unless there are serious flaws that we're not aware of yet. The drop off after the first weekend should tell the tale.

On Translations

 One of the things some people are complaining about with Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is the translation that he is reportedly relying upon. He is supposedly using Emily Wilson 2017 translation which some people seem to like and others don't like.

I haven't read it so I can't speak from from personal experience. I did watch a video defending the translations and claiming that it was truer to the original text. The example she gave was the word "kynopis" which, apparently, literally means "dog-faced." It is generally considered derogatory and often translated as "shameless." 

Helen of Troy uses the term referring to herself in Book 4 and Emily Wilson has, according to the woman making the video, translated it literally while previous translations have made it into a form of self-condemnation and translating it as Helen criticizing herself as "shameless."

The are three main methods for translating something.

1. Word-for-Word (Formal Equivalence)

This method stays as close to the original text as feasible. This sounds like the path that Wilson took, at least in this example. The problem with a word-for-word translation is that it can leave modern readers scratching their heads when they come across phrases or idioms that are no longer in use. In this example, "dog-faced" would probably be a tad confusing.

2. Thought-for-Thought (Dynamic Equivalence)

This method prioritizes translating the meaning of a passage rather than sticking strictly to individual words. This is what translators are doing in this example when they translate "kynopis" as "shameless." The criticism of this method is that different translators may interpret the meaning of different passages differently.

3. Paraphrase (Free Translation)

Instead of translating directly from the original language, these versions rephrase the text into a conversational, interpretive format. I've always considered this Dynamic Equivalence on steroids and clearly risks loosing the meaning of the text through interpretation.

Each of these methods have champions and detractors. So, staying truer to the actual text may, or may not, be a virtue.

Update: I got a bit more detail on the actual translation that Wilson uses. Apparently it was “They made my face the cause that hounded them.”

The problem with translating "kynopis" as "hounded" rather than "shameless" or "wanton," is it changes the line from self reflection and taking at least some of the blame for the war into essentially blaming everyone else.  Fitzgerald renders the line as "...that year the Akhaian host made war on Troy—daring all for the wanton that I was.” 

Helen therefore appears to take some responsibility for running off with Paris even if she was under Aphrodite's control. I like that Helen better than Wilson's Helen even if she was being too hard on herself.

Christopher Nolan's Odyssey

 You knew that I couldn't leave this one alone right?

When I first heard that Nolan was creating a movie based upon Homer's "The Odyssey," I thought to myself, that sounds sort of cool. I'll probably watch it when it comes on streaming. I thought the same thing about "Nuremberg" which I thought was so awful that I couldn't even finish it.

Then the rumors started and the first trailers hit the street. Talk about waving a red flag in front of a herd of bulls, the Internet went completely off the rails.

Here are the primary complaints:

(1) The Casting : At the top of the list is the casting of a black woman, Lupita Nyong’o, as Helen of Troy. Talk about throwing raw meat into a pit of hyenas. She will also apparently play Clytemnestra, who in some stories is Helen's twin sister. 

The Internet has been merciless with some people calling her "Helen of DeTroyt" and others "the face that emptied 1,000 theaters." I don't agree with this choice. I find it insulting. I suppose I would find it even more insulting if I was Greek. We all know that Hollywood has a diversity checklist that a movie has to meet if they want to be eligible for awards, but this is not the way to get there.

But it gets worse. Picture Achilles in your mind. I suspect you're thinking bulging biceps and six pack abs. So who gets cast? A five foot transman called Elliot Page that looks like a stiff breeze would blow him away. I'm not even sure what Achilles in doing in the Odyssey unless it's a flashback or dream sequence.

Nolan also decided that what a movie about Bronze Age Greeks REALLY needed was a rapper as narrator. I don't even know what to say about this. I have to assume if this wasn't working out that they would have changed it so, I suppose we'll have to see.

Finally, we're getting Zendaya as Athena. Honestly, this may be the worse choice of all. Athena is almost always described as the "bright-eyed" or "grey-eyed" goddess. Zendaya has dark brown eyes. I would have thought a more majestic actress, with actual breasts, might have been a better choice.

(2) The Costumes: There is a scene in one of the trailers showing Agamemnon in thick black armor that makes him look more like Batman than a Bronze Age Greek warrior. There is also a scene showing the Laestrygonian Giants wearing plate armor which makes absolutely no sense.  Odysseus' ship also looks more like a Viking Longship than a Greek galley.

(3) The Dialogue: Nolan is reportedly basing the movie on a 2017 translation by Emily Wilson which has gotten mixed reviews. I haven't read it so I'm in no position to say anything one way or the other. One thing everyone seems to agree on though is that she uses modern, often informal, phrasing rather than formal language. In the trailer Telemachus refers to Odysseus as "dad." She is also reported to be more sensitive to realistic social dynamics and calling things as they are, especially when in comes to the place of women in ancient Greek society.

There are any number of people writing this movie off and predicting that it will be a massive flop. I'm not so sure. The production budget is reportedly $250 million. Google says that a movie needs a box office typically between 2.5 and 3 times the production budget to break even. That would mean between $625 million and $750 million and I suspect this movie is going to be seriously advertised so it might be closer to $750 million. 

That would make it the 5th highest grossing Nolan film. But only "The Dark Night Rises" had as big a budget, and it's his #1 box office success at $1.08 billion, and that was in 2012. Now, 14 years later, I think "The Odyssey" will easily meet the $750 million and might top $1 billion unless there is something else seriously wrong with the movie beyond these three issues.

This will probably be a successful movie thanks to the dumbing down of American education. The vast majority of the people that are going to see this film have probably never read "The Iliad" or "The Odyssey." They won't know that the armor is anachronistic or that Odysseus' ship looks more like a Viking Longship rather than a Greek Galley. They won't know that Athena is always described as the "grey-eyed" or "bright-eyed" goddess. They might notice that Helen shouldn't be black, but I doubt they'll care. The dumbing down of the dialogue might work in Nolan's favor because his target audience probably has a limited vocabulary. As long as the film has spectacle and a strong pace, it will make boatloads of money and all of our criticisms will be forgotten.

Black People Invented Democracy?

 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a fucking moron. I really do not like her and if she is on the Democratic ticket in 2028 I will either sit out the election or vote Republican depending upon the GOP candidate. If it's Vance, I won't vote for him. If it's Rubio, then I probably would vote for him.

In a podcast interview recently AOC claimed "I think about the civil rights and voting rights movement, and how Black Americans really created democracy in this country... how they literally made something from nothing."

What? I get her point about the importance of civil rights leaders during the 1960s but you can't just throw out a couple of thousand years of history starting in ancient Athens and continuing through the Magna Carta and a little thing called the US Constitution. Granted that rights de jure don't always always translate into rights de facto but give me a break.

Obviously black people didn't invent democracy. However the rights granted in the 14th and 15th Amendments de jure didn't translate into rights de facto everyplace. 

The Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 were primarily aimed at the Southern States where many black people were in fact denied their right to vote through poll taxes and impossible to pass literacy tests. White voters didn't have to worry about those tests because their right to vote was literally grandfathered in. If their grandfathers could vote, then they could vote without having to pass the literacy test. 

Blacks could vote in the South, and elected several black congressmen, prior to the Compromise 0f 1877 which saw the federal government withdraw troops from the South and allowed the Jim Crow era to officially begin. Almost immediately Southern states began instituting poll taxes and literacy tests in order to disenfranchise black voters. Poll taxes were outlawed in Federal Elections by the 24th Amendment in 1964 and in all elections by the U.S. Supreme Court in the 1966 case Harper v. Virginia State Board of Elections. Literacy tests were banned by the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

So it took almost 100 years to translate the rights guaranteed de jure by the 14th and 15th Amendments into actual rights. But that doesn't mean that black people created Democracy. That's just idiotic.