CNN on the Midterms

CNN has this really annoying "data analyst" by the name of Harry Enten that has been giving his take on the midterms. I don't like his broadcast manner. He sounds like a bit of a jerk to me.

However, that doesn't mean that he doesn't know what he's doing so I thought that I would capture his current thoughts.

He has presented it in terms of the probability of the possible outcomes.

Possibility #4 - <1% Probability

GOP House and Dem Senate

Possibility #3 - 11% Probability

GOP House and GOP Senate

Possibility #2 - 22% Probability

Dem House and GOP Senate

Possibility #1 - 67% Probability

Dem House and Dem Senate

OK, let's not forget that Hillary Clinton had an 80% chance in 2016. 

I have three problems with Enten's predictions. 

The first is that he seems to rely somewhat on historical trends. I don't think historical trends matter in this new political environment. Things have never been as polarized as they are now.

The second is that he's assuming because Trump is so currently unpopular that will lead to people abandoning the GOP or at least not showing up to support it. I don't know about that. Disliking Trump and not voting Republican are two different things.

The third is that the Democrats strike me as brain dead. They're campaigning on two basic points. The first is "Trump Big Bad" and the second is "We're going to give people free stuff." We'll see how well that works out.

The Midterm Stretch II

We're going to see if anything has changed from a week ago.

Still going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket. Bold = Change, Bold + Italics = Gain.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 189 (+4), Tossups - 20 (-4)

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 46 (+1), Tossups - 8 (-1)

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, IA, ME

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.1% (-0.1), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.1)

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 48.8% (-0.2), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.2)

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 63% (-2), Paxton (R) - 38% (+1)

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.4% (+0.6), Rogers (R) - 45.7% (+1.5)

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1% (+0.3), Rogers (R) - 45.7% (+1.3)

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 63% (-4), Rogers (R) - 33% (+5)

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 53.3% (+1.6), Blakeman (R) - 40.5% (+0.2)

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 52.8% (+0.1), Blakeman (R) - 40.4% (+0.5)

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 96%, Blakeman (R) - 4% 

Looks like a few more people making decisions and some GOP gains. More on this next week.

The Midterm Stretch

Well, here we go, less than a month to the midterms.

The polls say the Dems are going to have a big night but I'm not so sure. Hating Trump and not voting Republican are two different things.

I'm going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 185, Tossups - 24

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 45, Tossups - 9

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, IA, ME

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.2%, Paxton (R) - 45.4%

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 49.0%, Paxton (R) - 45.5%

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 65%, Paxton (R) - 37%

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 47.8%, Rogers (R) - 44.2%

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1%, Rogers (R) - 44.4%

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 73%, Rogers (R) - 28%

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 51.7%, Blakeman (R) - 40.3%

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 52.7%, Blakeman (R) - 39.9%

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 96%, Blakeman (R) - 4%

Happy Birthday to Me!

Happy birthday to me! Happy birthday to me,  and so on, and so forth. It's the big 78th Birthday. Honestly, I never thought that I would make it this far.

Of course, I'm falling apart, slowly but surely. OK, enough with the bitching and moaning.

Pete Buttigieg's Interview

 I was watching an interview with Pete Buttigieg about what the Democrats should do if they gain back the House.

I generally agreed with his idea of a series of small revenue bills addressing popular things. Such as raising taxes on the wealthy, restoring the Child Tax Credit, restoring the AMA subsidies. He warned against simply going back to the way things were.

I don't know how to tell you this Bill, but bringing back the Child Tax Credit, restoring the ACA subsidies and raising the minimum wage all have the possibility of increasing inflation and inflation is the one biggest thing that hurts people like us, retired couples, the most. 

So why should I vote for Democrats if I'm going to get hurt? I didn't hear anything about eliminating taxes on Social Security or insuring the program will continue to be viable. What about addressing drug prices and adding dental to Medicare? 

There are 73 million Americans on Social Security and you're ignoring them. Then you wonder why senior citizens don't vote for you. 46 million used the CTC and about 22 million got AMA subsidies. Even if there weren't significant overlap between those two groups, and there almost certainly is, that's 73 million to 68 million. Then you wonder why you lose elections. 

The Lone Juror

The lone holdout juror in the Lindsay Clancy has become something of a celebrity especially as he turned out to be a black man in his thirties that describes himself as a Black Conservative Republican.

As I said before, half the country wants to tar and feather him and the other half wants to hold him a ticker tape parade.

I wasn't in the courtroom, so I really have little basic for coming to a conclusion, but I think this guy should be applauded for sticking to his decision holding out against the mob.

In other Clancy trial news, her husband, Patrick, has apparently retained council and may be going after the people on social media that have been saying that he murdered the three children.

Good for him. These clowns need to understand that you can't just defame people online without consequences.

Given all the publicity, finding an unbiased jury for a second trial is going to be tricky.

Race for the Senate 2026

Polls are often skewed by 2-3 points. People will express frustration with the party in power even if they usually vote for it. Doing so in a poll is harmless, but doing so in the voting booth is not so harmless, and they tend to revert to the party they support even if they are upset with it. 

I think the polls are skewed 2-3 in the Dems favor especially in typically red states. So, assuming that's correct, I expect Iowa, Texas, Ohio and Alaska to be won by Republicans. That will give the GOP 51 seats and put New Hampshire, Michigan and Maine in play, but I suspect the Dems will still win those three races. Moody (R) will win in Florida. Ossoff will win in Georgia and Cooper will win in North Carolina. 

These calls may change in the eight weeks still remaining, but it's where I think things will go right now.

The Lindsay Clancy Trial

So when from an inclusion in a current events summary to a mainline topic. I will repeat what I said previously just to set the stage.

A woman in Massachusetts, by the name of Lindsay Clancy, is on trial for murdering her three children. There is no question about whether she did it. She admits that she did it and hers lawyers admit that she did it. This hasn't kept feminists on the Internet from claiming her husband did it even though there is video evidence that he was at CVS at the time. The issue being debated is whether she was mentally ill and had been misdiagnosed which led to her being given medicine that made her condition worse rather than better. 

The trial is over, and has ended in a mistrial, but it's interesting how it got there.

It started with a note from the jury saying that they were deadlocked. As per standard procedure, the judge simply sent them back to continue deliberating. There was no indication as to what the split might be.

The jury then sent a second note saying that they were still deadlocked. Superior Court Judge William Sullivan delivered the Tuey-Rodriguez charge, a supplemental instruction urging the jury to make a final effort to reach a unanimous decision. There was still no indication of the split.

Then the jury sent a third note which showed considerable frustration. The note claimed that one lone juror was "refusing to follow the law." They had expressed doubt but refused to vote for acquittal.

Well, that brought us into a whole new situation. It was now clear that the vote was 11-1 for acquittal and the 11 were claiming that the 1 was not following the judge's instructions.

Judge Sullivan read the whole jury a definition of "Reasonable Doubt" and polled each jury as to whether they were prepared to follow the law and his instructions on the law. Each said that they were, so they were sent back for a third time.

Clancy's lawyer, Kevin Reddington, was going a little nuts. His client was one vote from acquittal. He got up and "suggested" that the judge remove the one juror and replace him with an alternate. The judge, correctly in my opinion, refused to do so. Somewhere along the line Reddington used male pronouns to refer to the juror, so everyone concluded that it was a man, even though the jury had six women and only three men. 

The Lone Juror, held out and the judge was forced to declare a mistrial. Reddington threw everything that he could come up with to prevent that, but to no avail.

The court, prosecution and defense have scheduled a meeting for the end of September to discuss scheduling a retrial so it looks like we're going to do this again.

The Internet went a little crazy over this. There was everything from calls for the Lone Juror to be tar and feathered to declaring them a national hero. I'm still not 100% certain it's a man by the way. Given the vitriol going around, they might want to lay low for a while.