Ceasefire Crumbling

Apparently no one told Israel about the ceasefire. They continued their strikes in Lebanon so Iran shut the Straits of Hormuz again. Well, it was nice to have a couple of hours of peace.

This is going to send the market into a tailspin.

Ceasefire?

Trump claims to have signed a two week ceasefire with Iran tied to the opening of the Straits of Hormuz.

Can't wait to hear what the Iranians have to say about this two week ceasefire. 

In the meantime, Dow futures are up 800 points and Nasdaq futures are up 600 points so someone (I wonder who?) is making a ton of money.

Congress seriously needs to use these two weeks to impeach the crazy son of a bitch.

The 25th Amendment

Trump is becoming more and more unhinged. He has clearly lost it.

On Sunday he issued a profanity laced threat that no "leader" of a civilized nation should issue.

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP."

Add to this the fact that Hegseth has been forcing out senior military leaders and the situation is downright terrifying.

The 25th Amendment incudes procedures for a President who is physically, or mentally, incapacitated to step aside and allow the Vice President to take over.

Section 3 covers a voluntary action where the President himself declares to the Speaker of the House and President Pro Tempore of the Senate that he unable to perform his duties. The Vice President would take over until the President declares that he is again able to perform the duties of President.

Section 4 covers scenarios where the President is either unable to communicate or for the involuntary removal of a President for physical or mental reasons.

Who decides you ask? According to the Amendment, "the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide."

Since Congress hasn't provided for "such other body," most people interpret this to mean a majority of the cabinet.

Therein lies the 1st problem. Trump has chosen his cabinet for loyalty rather than competence. It seems unlikely a majority of them are going to declare him unfit.

If if Vance had the balls to initiate such an action (he doesn't), and even if he managed to get a majority of the cabinet to go along (he won't), Trump can contest it and declare that he is fit.

If that happens, which seems highly likely, "Congress shall decide the issue...by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office."

That seems really, really, unlikely.

The 25th Amendment clearly assumes that the VP, cabinet and Congress would place country over party and do the right thing. Unfortunately that may no longer be a valid assumption.

Trump's Speech

I listened to Trump's speech tonight. It was like listening to a six year old. A delusional six year old.

Honestly, I'm no wiser about what the hell is going on there because he provided absolutely no believable information. He also did a good job of insulting our European allies.

I cannot believe that someone actually allowed him to make this speech. I'd also like to know who wrote it. The bad news is that he's talking about the war continuing for another three to four weeks. That's not going to make the market happy.

I'm not sure what the hell comes next. The man is an absolute moron.

What's Going on in Iran?

That's a good question.

There isn't a lot of reliable information about the situation. The media is going wild and ushering in a new era of Yellow Journalism. They are publishing whatever they think will frighten the public and get the most clicks.

Trump has no idea what's going on and continues to make absurd proclamations. Hegseth uses briefings to play politics.

From what I can tell, Israel and the US are slowly dismantling Iran's ability to wage war. Israel, less squeamish than the US, has also been working on chopping off the head of the beast by eliminating Iran's leadership.

This could take a while and it's only been about three weeks. 

I would assume the ultimate objective is an Iranian government devoid of Islamic crazies that will cease to be a threat to the region and stop financing terrorist organization like Hezbollah and Hamas.

I don't see how that gets accomplished without a popular uprising.

The Stock Market is taking a beating due to rising oil and gas prices. Of course a higher than expected inflation report didn't help any. Overall the market is down about 5,000 points from its high in February. I'm personally down around $80,000 (ouch).

Right about now I see no end in sight but I suspect things will be settled by the summer one way or the other.

Trump's War

Trump's war continues. The Stock Market is in free fall, oil is over $100 a barrel which is driving gas prices through the roof.

Iran has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, no big surprise there, but now appears to be willing to allow any but US and Israeli ships to go through.

We'll see how that works out and if it will alleviate the oil prices and stock market woes.

US and Israel Attack Iran

The US and Israel have launched air strikes against Iran. Iran has attacked US bases and neighboring Arab countries in retaliation.

The concern is that Iran continues its nuclear program and may be developing long range missiles.

Does this make any sense?

I honestly don't know. My initial reaction is that Trump is crazy. I can understand Netanyahu's concern because Israel will be within range of an Iranian nuclear capability long before the US is. 

But is this the right approach? Armed conflict should always be a last resort because so many things can go wrong. So, until proven otherwise, mark me as opposed to this attack.

My Basement Leak VII

 I really didn't expect this to become a marathon.

Anyway, we got most of the mess cleaned up and threw out a bunch of stuff that we probably should have thrown out years ago.

We managed to order some furniture. A large couch and chair for downstairs and a chair to fill the hole in the living room upstairs. They say 8-12 weeks because it's all custom.

With the second big snowstorm on the way the weather is really straining the water proofing that we had done. I really don't need that to fail on me.

So far I haven't heard either sump pump go on. Let's hope it stays that way.

<<To Be Continued>>