World Cup Quarter Finals to the Final

Quarter-Finals

July 9th

France-2 Morocco-0

July 10th

Spain-2 Belgium-1

July 11th

Norway-1 England-2 (AET)

Argentina-3 vs Switzerland-1 (AET)

I was really rooting for Morocco but France leads 2-0 in the 73rd minute.

Well, Spain beat Belgium 2-1 but at least someone scored a goal against Spain. That France vs Spain semi-final is going to be one hell of an interesting match.

Alas, farewell Norway as England advances.

Argentina gets past the Swiss with two late goals in ET.

Semi-Finals

July 14th

France-0 Spain-2

July 15th

England vs Argentina

Spain takes a 1-0 lead over France on a penalty kick. Honestly, given the rarity of goals in this sport, I found that penalty a little iffy but, what do I know? The more I think about it, the more that penalty bothers me. The Spanish player basically ran into the line of the French player's kick. Yes, the ball hit the Spanish player first, and yes, he did get kicked. But, given that goals are as rare as hen's teeth at this level, it strikes me as a chicken-shit way to get a goal. Spain has scored again, so it's now 2-0 in the 60th minute. Whoa, an offside saved a 3rd goal so it's still 2-0. That's how it ends, Spain-2, France-0.

Boy, no scoring but lots of fouls in the first 25 minutes of the England vs Argentina game.

Third Place Play-off

July 18th

France vs TBD

***Final***

July 19th

Spain vs TBD

Iran Ceasefire Appears to Fall Apart

And things are going to hell in the Middle East again. Apparently Iran fired at some ship in the Strait of Hormuz and CENTCOM is trying to  "further degrade [Iran's] ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."

I've said this before, and I'll say it again, I suspect that Iran's Command & Control structure is fractured so it's going to be really hard to get stuff under control. It doesn't take much to fire at a ship the strait.

Predictably, the Stock Market didn't take this news well. I'll suppose we'll have to wait and see what happens.

World Cup Round of 16

 Well, it's on to the Round of 16.

July 4th

Canada-0 Morocco-3

Paraguay-0 France-1

July 5th

Brazil-1 Norway-2

Mexico-2 England-3

July 6th

Portugal-0 Spain-1

USA-1 Belgium-4

July 7th

Argentina-3 Egypt-2

Switzerland-0(4) Columbia-0(3)

Notes

Norway taking Brazil was a shock, but a nice shock. 

With Canada gone, and Mexico trailing at the 70' mark, there's a very real danger that we could lose all three host countries in this round. Mexico has now lost 3-2 after England fought off 20 minutes of assaults while a man down.

Spain has moved past Portugal with a late goal.

Belgium has jumped ahead of the US 1-0 early in the match. I suppose the Belgians are pissed that Balogun's red card was overturned. I don't blame them. I'd be pissed too. Honestly I'd rather lose without Balogun than win with him. Belgium has taken out the US, so all three hosts exit in the Round of 16. I guarantee that won't happen in 2030.

I came upstairs from working out and discovered that Egypt is on the verge of eliminating Argentina. They're up 2-0 in the 75th minute. Now this is going to be a really big deal. Of course the odds still give Argentina a 4% of winning and a 13% chance of it going to Extra Time. In the 79th minute Argentina has scored o make it 2-1 so here we go. Argentina tied it in the 83rd minute. Lionel Messi tied it up. Talk about insane. Argentina took the lead in the 94th minute 3-2. Argentina wins 3-2. Now that was a tough loss for Egypt. I feel for them.

Again, I was watching the Switzerland v. Columbia game and had to go eat dinner with the penalties at 1-1. Congrats to the Swiss winning it 4-3.

World Cup 2026 - Round of 32

June 28th

South Africa-0 Canada-1

June 29th

Brazil-2 Japan-1

Germany-1(3) Paraguay-1(4)

Netherlands-1(2) Morocco-1(3)

June 30th

Ivory Coast-1 Norway-2

France-3 Sweden-0

Mexico-2 vs Ecuador-0

July 1st

England-2 vs DR Congo-1

Belgium-3 Senegal-2 (AET)

USA-2 vs Bosnia & Herz-0

July 2nd

Spain-3 Austria-0

Portugal-2 Croatia-1

Switzerland-2 Algeria-0

July 3rd

Australia-1(2) Egypt-1(4)

Argentina-3 Cabo Verde-2 (AET)

Columbia-1 vs Ghana-0

Republicans vs Democrats

I think people need to stop assuming that everyone that voted for Trump did so simply because they were racist. I hear this claim a lot and I think it oversimplifies the situation. There are some fundamental differences in the outlook of the two parties. For example (I've put where I stand in parens):

Abortion: Democrats want less restrictions than Republicans. (D)

Religion: Republicans want to chip away at the Separation of Church and State while the Democrats want to preserve it. (D)

Immigration: Republicans want to restrict immigration while Democrats appear to be OK with increasing it. (R)

Illegal Immigrants: Republicans want to deport them and prevent more from entering the country while Democrats would prefer providing a path to citizenship and are not as concerned about additional illegals entering the country. (R)

DEI: Democrats are in favor of it while Republicans are opposed to it. (R)

Healthcare: Democrats are concerned about the cost of healthcare while Republicans don't seem to be concerned about it. (D)

Gay Rights: Democrats are more sympathetic than Republicans. (D)

Transrights: Democrats seem to be more OK with transrights, including allowing transwomen to compete in women's sports, than Republicans. (R)

Defense Spending: Republicans want to increase it while Democrats want to reduce it. (D)

Tax Policy: Democrats want a more progressive tax structure while Republicans continue to cut taxes for the rich. (D)

Social Safety Net: Democrats want to strengthen the Social Safety Net while Republicans want to weaken it. (D)

It's OK for people to line up on different sides on these issues. I'm with the Democrats on 7 of the 11  So I voted for Clinton, Biden and Harris. 

I'm not opposed to immigration, legal or illegal, because I'm racist but because I think an influx of immigrants is driving some aspects of inflation. I think this is especially an issue when it comes to housing. We already have too many people chasing too few rentals. Let's not make it worse.

SCOTUS Decisions

The whole world doesn't stop for the World Cup and the Supreme Court has issued a number of very important decision. Some were good and some not so good.

(1) Trump's Executive Order restricting Birthright Citizenship has been struck down.

At least the court can still read. People were getting a little nervous about this given some of the other recent court decisions regarding Temporary Protective Status but sanity has apparently prevailed.

(2) Trump CANNOT arbitrarily fire members of the Federal reserve.

This preserve's the Feds independence and is clearly a good decision. Giving a sitting President control over the Federal Reserve would have been a disaster.

(3) States CAN restrict participation in sports based upon biological sex.

This one just makes common sense. I always though participation was segregated by sex and I never understood the concept of allowing participation based upon self-identified gender.

(4) Coordinated spending between a political party and a candidate CANNOT be limited.

OK, so three out of four isn't bad. Again the court doesn't seem to have a problem with allowing money to influence the electoral process. Why not just hold an auction and give the office to the highest bidder?

Iran Agreement 14 Points

 The 14 core points of the initial agreement include:

1. End of Military Operations: An immediate and permanent halt to military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
2. Mutual Non-Aggression: A commitment to refrain from the threat or use of force against one another.
3. Respect for Sovereignty: An undertaking to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, specifically ensuring the sovereignty of Lebanon.
4. 60-Day Negotiation Window: A commitment to negotiate and achieve a finalized deal within a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
5. Lift Naval Blockade: The U.S. will begin immediately lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports and will completely end it within 30 days.
6. Strait of Hormuz: Iran will use its best efforts to arrange for the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, free of charge for 60 days.
7. Reconstruction Plan: The U.S. and regional partners will undertake a plan of at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran.
8. End of Sanctions: The U.S. commits to terminating all types of sanctions against Iran, contingent on nuclear compliance.
9. No Nuclear Weapons: Iran reaffirms its commitment that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.
10. Disposition of Stockpiled Material: The U.S. and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of Iran's stockpiled enriched nuclear material.
11. Nuclear Status Quo: Pending the final deal, both sides will maintain the status quo of Iran's nuclear program; the U.S. will not impose new sanctions or deploy additional forces.
12. Oil Export Waivers: The U.S. Treasury Department will issue waivers allowing the immediate, unhindered export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and all associated banking and transportation services.
13. Dispute Mechanism: Provisions for resolving disputes that may arise during the 60-day interim phase before the final agreement is signed.
14. Final Deal Integration: A stipulation that the final deal will permanently confirm the termination of the war and codify the lasting provisions of the interim agreement.

Honestly, the treaty Obama had in place was much better. Trump is an idiot. That being said, I'm glad the killing has stopped and I hope that it will stay stopped.

World Cup 2026 III

OK, I'm getting organized. I'll do a round at a time.

Group A                      MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts       

• Mexico                    3     3   0    0   6     0     6    9
• South Africa          3     1    1   1    2      3     -2   4
• South Korea          3     1    0    2    2    3     -1    3
• Czechia                   3    0    1    2    2     6     -4   1

Group B                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Switzerland           3     2   1    0   7      3      4     7
• Canada                   3     1    1    1   8      3      5     4
• Bos and Herz        3     1    1    1   5      6      -1    4
• Qatar                      3     0   1   2    2    10     -9     1

Group C                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Brazil                     3     2    1   0    7     1       6     7
• Morocco                3     2    1   0    6    3       3     7
• Scotland                3     1    0   2    1     4     -3     3
• Haiti                       3    0    0   3   2     8     -6     0

Group D                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• United States       3     2   0   1   8     4      4      6
• Australia               3     1   1   1    2     2      0      4
• Paraguay               3     1   1   1    2     4     -2     4
• Turkiye                  3    1   0   2   3      5     -2     3
• 
  

Group E                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Germany              3      2   0   1   10     4     6     6
• Ivory Coast          3      2    0   1   4     2      0     6
• Ecuador                3     1    1   1    2      2     0      4
• Curacao                3     0   1   2    1      9     -8     1

Group F                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Netherlands        3      2   1   0   10    4      6      7
• Japan                   3      1   2   0     7     3      4      5
• Sweden                3      1   1    1     7     7      0      4
• Tunisia                3      0   0  3     2    12   -10     0

Group G                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Belgium               3      1   2    0   6      2      4     5
• Egypt                    3      1   2    0   5      3      2     5
• Iran                       3     0   3    0   1      3      0     3
• New Zealand       3     0   1    2   4     10    -6     1

Group H                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Spain                      3     2    1   0    5     0      5     7
• Capo Verde           3     0    3   0    2     2      0    3
• Uruguay                 3    0    2    1    3     4     -1    2
• Saudi Arabia         3     0    2   1     1     5    -4     2

Group I                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• France                  3      3   0   0  10      2     8    9
• Norway                3      2   0   1    8       7     1     6
• Senegal                3      1   0   2    8       6    2     3
• Iraq                      3      0   0   3    1     12  -11     0

Group J                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Argentina            3      3   0   0   8     1      7      9
• Austria                 3      1   1   1    6      6     0      4
• Algeria                 3      1   1   1    5     7      -2     4
• Jordan                 3      0   0  3   3      8     -5     0

Group K                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Colombia             3       2   1    0   4     1      3    7
• Portugal               3       1   2    0   6     1      5    5
• DR Congo            3       1   1    1   4      3     1     4
• Uzbekistan          3       0   0   3   2    11    -9    0

Group L                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• England                3     2   1   0   6     2      4      7
• Croatia                  3     2   0   1   5     5      0     6
• Ghana                   3     1    1   1    2     2      0     4
• Panama                3     0   0   3   0    4     -4     0
• 
  

June 18th Games

Czechia-1 South Africa-1

Switzerland-4 Bos & Herz-1

Canada-6 Qatar-0

Mexico-1 South Korea-0

June 19th Games

USA-2 Australia-0

Scotland-0 Morocco-1

Brazil-3 Haiti-0

Turkiye-0 Paraguay-1

June 20th Games

Netherlands-5 Sweden-1

Germany-2 Ivory Coast-1

Ecuador-0 Curacao-0

June 21st

Tunisia-0 Japan-4

Spain-4 Saudi Arabia-0

Belgium-0 Iran-0

Uruguay-2 Cabo Verde-2

New Zealand-1 Egypt-3

June 22nd

Argentina-2 Austria-0

France-3 Iraq-0

Norway-3 Senegal-2

Jordan-1 Algeria-2

June 23rd

Portugal-5 Uzbekistan-0

England-0 Ghana-0

Panama-0 Croatia-1

Columbia-1 DR Congo-0

June 24th

Switzerland-2 Canada-1

Bos & Herz-3 Qatar-1

Morocco-4 Haiti-2

Scotland-0 Brazil-3

South Africa-1 South Korea-0

Czechia-0 Mexico-3

June 25th

Curacao-0 Ivory Coast-2

Ecuador-2 Germany-1

Tunisia-1 Netherlands-3

Japan-1 vs Sweden-1

Turkiye-3 USA-2

Paraguay-0 Australia-0

June 26th

Norway-1 France-4

Senegal-5 Iraq-0

Cabo Verde-0 Saudi Arabia-0

Uruguay-0 Spain-1

New Zealand-1 Belgium-5

Egypt-1 Iran-1

June 27th

Panama-0 England-2

Croatia-2 Ghana-1

Columbia-0 Portugal-0

DR Congo-3 Uzbekistan-1

Algeria-3 Austria-3

Jordan-1 Argentina-3

The Iranian Deal

According to Trump, he has made a deal to end the fighting in the Middle East. Unfortunately, no one has seen the text of the deal and we're hearing contradictory things from Trump and JD Vance.

The best I can make of it is:

(1) The Strait of Hormuz gets opened but it's unclear if there will be tolls or not.

(2) If Iran doesn't rebuild its nuclear capability then it get access to money? I'm reading between the lines here.

(3) If it does rebuild its nuclear capability then it doesn't get access?

(4) The Gulf States and the US, according to JD Vance, are putting together a $300 billion fund to help rebuild Iranian infrastructure. I assume this is the money they get access to plus the $100 billion currently frozen but I'm not sure. Trump has denied that such a fund exists.

(5) If the Israelis keep attacking Lebanon then the deal is off, and the Israelis haven't agreed to stop doing so because they're not signatories to the deal.

As you can see from the above, I don't really know a whole hell of a lot and apparently neither do the Israelis who claim they haven't seen the deal either.

More to follow when more information is available.

The World Cup 2026 II

 On to the next three days. You notice I'm not making any predictions because that would just make me look foolish.

Group A                      MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts       

• Mexico                    1     1   0    0   2     0      2    3
• South Korea          1     1   0    0   2     1       1     3
• Czechia                   1     0   0   1    1     1      -1    0
• South Africa          1     0   0   1    0     2     -2    0

Group B                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Canada                   1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
• Bos and Herz        1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
• Qatar                      1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
• Switzerland           1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1

Group C                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Scotland                1     1    0   0    1     0      1     3
• Brazil                     1     0    1   0    1     1       0     1
• Morocco                1     0    1   0    1     1       0     1
• Haiti                       1     0   0   1    0     1      -1     0
• 
  

Group D                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• United States       1     1   0   0   4      1      3      3
• Australia               1     1   0   0   2     0      2      3
• Turkiye                 1      0   1   0   0     2     -2     0
• Paraguay              1      0   0   1   1      4     -3     0

Group E                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Germany              1      1   0   0   7      1      6      3
• Ivory Coast          1      1   0   0   1      0      1      3
• Ecuador               1      0   0   1   0      1     -1      0
• Curacao                1     0   0   1    1      7     -6     0

Group F                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Sweden                1       1   0  0    5     1      4     3
• Netherlands        1      0   1   0    2     2     0     1
• Japan                   1       0   1   0   2     2     0     1
• Tunisia                1       0   0   1   1     1     -4     0

Group G                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Iran                       1      0   1   0   2     2      0     1
• New Zealand       1      0   1   0   2     2      0     1
• Belgium               1      0   1    0   1      1      0     1
• Egypt                    1      0   1    0   1      1      0     1

Group H                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Saudi Arabia         1     0    1   0   1      1      0     1
• Uruguay                 1     0    1   0   1      1      0     1
• Spain                      1     0    1   0    0     0     0     1
• Capo Verde           1     0    1   0    0     0     0     1
• 
  

Group I                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Norway                1      1   0   0    4     1       3     3
• France                  1      1   0   0    3      1      2     3
• Senegal                1      0   0   1     1      3    -2     0
• Iraq                       1     0    0   1    1      4     -3    0

Group J                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Argentina            1      1   0   0   3     0       3     3
• Austria                 1      1   0   0   3     1       2      3
• Jordan                 1      0   0   1   1      3     -2      0
• Algeria                 1      0   0   1   0     3     -3      0

Group K                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• Colombia             1       1   0   0   3     1       2    3
• Portugal               1       0   1    0   1     1      0     1
• DR Congo            1       0    1    0   1     1     0     1
• Uzbekistan          1       0   0    1    1     3    -2    0

Group L                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

• England                1     1   0   0   4     2      2     3
• Ghana                   1     1    0   0   1     0      1     3
• Panama                1     0    0   1   0     1     -1    0
• Croatia                  1     0   0   1   2     4     -2    0

June 14th Games

Australia-2 Turkiye-0

Germany-7 Curacao-1

Netherlands-2 Japan-2

Ivory Coast-1 Ecuador-0

Sweden-5 Tunisia-1

June 15th Games

Spain-0 Capo Verde-0

Belgium-1 Egypt-1

Saudi Arabia-1 Uruguay-1

Iran vs New Zealand

June 16th Games

France-3 Senegal-1

Iraq-1 Norway-4

Argentina-3 Algeria-0

June 17th

Austria-3 Jordan-1

Portugal-1 DR Congo-1

England-4 Croatia-2

Ghana-1 Panama-0

Uzbekistan-1 Colombia-3

How Social Security Works

 I continue to be amazed at how many people have a mistaken impression of how Social Security operates.

Legally, Social Security is required to invest in special-issue US Treasury Bonds. And no, Social Security revenue NEVER contributes to the General Fund, so it has absolutely nothing to do with the deficit or the debt. Here's how Social Security operates: 

All revenue collected is first used to pay current benefits. If there is a surplus, it goes into the Social Security Trust Fund which, by law, is invested in special-issue US Treasury Bonds because it is considered the safest investment and CAN NEVER LOSE MONEY. These aren't just IOUs, but blue chip financial investments. These bonds collect interest which also goes into the Social Security Trust fund. What is special about these bonds is that they can be redeemed at anytime at par value. In other words, they're basically cash collecting interest.

If there is not enough to cover current benefits, then first interest, and then bonds, from the Trust Fund are used to meet the shortfall. 

Up until 2010 Social Security was taking in more money than it was paying out, so the Trust Fund was growing and all interest was reinvested back into the fund.

After 2010 Social Security used interest from the Trust Fund to make up the shortfall in tax revenue rather than investing that interest back into the Trust Fund. The Trust Fund reached a maximum size of about $2.9 trillion in 2020. 

Starting in 2021 the shortfall exceed both the tax revenue and the Trust Fund interest so Social Security began cashing in bonds to make up the shortfall. The Trust Fund currently contains approximately $2.56 trillion.

Unless either (1) more revenue is added or (2) expenses are reduced or (3) some combination of more revenue and reduced expenses is implemented, the Trust Fund is expected to be exhausted in 2032. At that time benefits will have to be reduced by about 22% to match what's being collected in tax revenues.