Election Night #1

Well, we have arrived, election night, and the first polls will be closing in about a half hour. Let's put up the current balance. If you want to know, I voted for Cory Booker and Josh Gottheimer.

6:30 PM

House of Representative

Dems - 0, GOP - 0

Senate

Dems - 34, GOP - 31

7:00 PM

House of Representative

Dems - 18, GOP - 12

Senate

Dems - 36, GOP - 31

Dems projected to take Virginia. Dems projected to take Georgia.

8:00 PM

House of Representative

Dems - 63(+1), GOP - 29(-1)

Senate

Dems - 43(+1), GOP - 33(-1)

The polls in New Jersey have closed. The Dems projected to take Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware and Illinois. So, it looks like Cory Booker gets another 6 years. Dems projected to take New Hampshire. Dems projected to take North Carolina in the first flip of the night. GOP projected to take Florida. GOP projected to take West Virginia.

Dems projected to take Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Illinois governor races. Dems projected to take Rhode Island governor race.

Dems projected to take Districts 1, 3, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 in New Jersey which makes it 8-0-4.

9:00 PM

House of Representative

Dems - 112(+4), GOP - 57

Senate

Dems - 45(+1), GOP - 37(-1)

Governors

Dems - 9(+1), GOP - 2(-1)

The polls have closed in Michigan and Texas. Let the games begin. Dems projected to take Colorado and New Mexico. GOP projected to take Wyoming. GOP projected to take Kentucky. GOP projected to take Oklahoma. GOP projected to take Tennesee.

Dems projected to take Connecticut and Colorado governor races. GOP projected to take Wyoming governor race. Dems projected to take Georgia governor race. GOP projected to take Florida governor's race. Dems projected to take New York governor's race.

Dems projected to take Districts 5, 7 GOP is projected to take District 4, in New Jersey which makes it 10-1-1. So, good old Josh Gottheimer gets another 2 years in my district. 

My Final Predictions for the Senate III

I told you that I would probably be doing this. Apparently a new slew of polls have been released so I'm going to play my rule of thumb on the updated averages. We'll add one point for each time the state voted for Trump. I'll also look at Real Clear Politics (RCP) and Nate Silver (NS).

We start with GOP 44, Dems 43

Maine + 0 pts

RCP - Jackson + 2.8

NS - Jackson + 4

By my rules, this goes to Jackson but Collins is like a cat and I think she still has a life left. I'm going with my gut on this one.

Winner - Collins GOP

GOP 45, Dems 43

New Hampshire + 0 pts

RCP - Pappas + 8

NS - Pappas + 8.4

Winner - Pappas Dems

GOP 45, Dems 44

Ohio + 3 pts

RCP - Brown + 2.8

NS - Brown + 3

But we add 3 pts to the GOP.

Winner - Husted GOP

GOP 46, Dems 44

North Carolina + 3 pts

RCP - Cooper +10.8

NS - Cooper + 10.2

Winner - Cooper Dems

GOP 46, Dems 45

South Carolina + 3 pts

RCP - Graham +2.6

NS - Graham +1.3

Winner - Graham GOP

GOP 47, Dems 45

Georgia + 2 pts

RCP - Ossoff +8.2

NS - Ossoff +10.5

Winner - Ossoff Dems

GOP 47, Dems 46

Minnesota + 0 pts

RCP - Flanagan +5.2

NS - Flanagan +6.6

Winner - Flanagan Dems

GOP 47, Dems 47

Iowa + 3 pts

RCP - Hinson +0.5

NS - Turek +0.7

Winner - Hinson

GOP 48, Dems 47

Nebraska + 3 pts

RCP - Ricketts +3.7

NS - Ricketts +0.8

Winner - Ricketts

GOP 49, Dems 47

Kansas + 3 pts

RCP - Hamilton +3.6

NS - Hamilton + 3.3

By the rules Hamilton wins but Kansas? I don't believe it, and I'm going with my gut again as in both cases it's within a single point.

Winner - Marshall GOP

GOP 50, Dems 47

Alaska + 3 pts

RCP - Peltola +1.0

NS - Peltola +2.6

In both cases adding the Trump points flips the race to the GOP.

Winner - Sullivan GOP

GOP 51, Dems 47

Texas + 3 pts

RCP - Talarico _+2.6

NS - Talarico + 3.5

So adding the 3 Trump points splits this, but, again, I'm going with my gut and giving it to the GOP.

Winner - Paxton

GOP 52, Dems 47

Michigan + 2 pts

RCP - El-Sayed +5.0

NS - El-Sayed +4.7

The Trump points don't help so the state goes to the Dems.

Winner - El-Sayed

GOP 52, Dems 48

So there are three results that I can take from this exercise.

Result #1 - Ignore adding the Trump points and just go with the averages. If the averages don't agree, then it's a tossup.

Result #2 - Simply follow my rule of thumb and ignore my gut feelings. Again, if it's a split then it's a tossup.

Result #3 - Precisely as above with the Trump points and my gut feels.

Result #1 - Dems 53, GOP 46, Tossup 1 (Iowa)

Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska and Texas go to the Dems and Iowa becomes a tossup. I have absolutely zero confidence that this is going to happen.

Result #2 - Dems 50, GOP 49, Tossup 1 (Texas)

Maine and Kansas go to the Dems and Texas becomes a tossup.

Result #3 - GOP 52, Dems 48

This is the end of the guesswork. Tomorrow all will be revealed. My wife and I intend to go vote around noon and we shall see what we shall see.

My Final Predictions for the Senate II

My rule of thumb for the Senate is to take the Real Clear Politics average and then add 1 point to the GOP for each time the state has gone for Trump. Why? Because I'm convinced that there is a cadre of Trump supporters that either (1) live in rural areas difficult to reach by pollsters, (2) refuse to take polls or (3) actually lie to pollsters.

That gives the GOP Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas. Honestly, I never thought that Nebraska and South Carolina were ever really in play, but my rule of thumb gives them to the GOP easily anyway. As for Maine, Collins is like a cat and she may have one more life. I think the GOP takes Maine. I'm not sure what's going to happen in Michigan. 

So that gives the GOP 52 seats, the Dems 47 seats with one seat, Michigan, floating in the ether. My feeling is the Dems will take Michigan making it GOP 52 and Dems 48. I say that because even after applying my rule of thumb El-Sayed is up 1.5 points so, unless I've missed something here, the Dems take Michigan.

My Final Predictions for the Senate

With 6 days to go, my opinion has pretty much solidified. 

The Dems will win Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Georgia. 

The GOP is going to win Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, South Carolina, Alaska and Texas. I don't know who is going to win Michigan. 

I do find it strange that I even have to include South Carolina, Nebraska and Kansas. Honestly, I never thought that these seats were up for grabs, but there's been a lot of wild talk.

So that's either 51 or 52 seats for the GOP depending upon how Michigan goes. Since the Dems aren't taking the Senate anyway, I don't have to feel guilty about rooting against El-Sayed.

Israeli Elections

 In the meantime, over in Israel, all 120 seats of the Knesset are up for election. Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition appears to have collapsed as he struggles to maintain control. He chief rivel is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Exit polls indicate that neither will have an outright 61 seat majority. Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to collapse from 68 seats in the previous Knesset to 50 seats. Eisenkot’s bloc had 52 seats. In the meantime, Arab parties are projected to have a record 18 seats.

Gadi Eisenkot's views are not that much different from Netanyahu and he has lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza fighting. He views Iran as the primary strategic threat and advocates dismantling Hamas leadership and ending its rule. 

So, maybe we're not going to get a quick resolution to the fighting even if he displaces Netanyahu.

Eisenkot opposes the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. However, he rejects permanent one-state control and far-right expansionist proposals, favoring regional/administrative separation.

In other words, not much different from the West Bank today and perhaps Palestinian Authority control over Gaza.

This sounds like another stop gap measure rather than an actual solution.

Election Time Update

Election Time has updated its Senate map and the changes are significant.

Election Time GOP-50, Dems -50

GOP Wins

ME, IA, TX

Dem Wins

AK, NH, MN, OH, GA, NC, MI

This site was pretty GOP gung ho not that long ago, predicting 56 seats, so this is a really big change.

The Midterm Stretch IV

I'm changing the format. I'm dropping the New York Governor's race because that looks like a done deal. I'm just going to list the current numbers in the Senate races and forget about highlighting changes. I'm going to look at all the competitive Senate races.

I don't know what to believe any more. Most pollsters are doubling down on a big Dem night, although some have started to hedge their bets. More than a few people are taking the position that the polls are flawed and there's going to be a big surprise on November 3rd. I still think Texas, Alaska and Maine will go to the GOP.

I suppose that we shall see what we shall see.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 227, GOP - 183, Tossups - 25

Polymarket has it Dems - 235, GOP - 200

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 44, Tossups - 10

Dem Pickups - NC

Dem Hold -  NH, GA

Tossups - ME, OH, MI, TX, AK, IA, MN, KS, NE, SC

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, ME, AK

Dem Hold - NH, MI, GA

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, AK, OH, TX, ME

Dem Holds - NH, GA, MI

Individual Senate Races

I'm going to include here Real Clear Politics (RCP), Nate Silver (NS), FiftyPlusOne (FP1) and Polymarket (PM). 

Minnesota

RCP - Flannagan (D) - 46.6%, Tafoya (R) - 43.2%

NS -  Flannagan (D) - 48.0%, Tafoya (R) - 43.3%

FP1 - Flannagan (D) - 84%, Tafoya (R) - 16%

PM - Flannagan (D) - 83%, Tafoya (R) - 18%

New Hampshire

RCP - Pappas (D) - 46.6%, Sununu (R) - 43.2%

NS - Pappas (D) - 49.7%, Sununu (R) - 42.4%

FP1 - Pappas (D) - 92%, Sununu (R) - 8%

PM - Pappas (D) - 90%, Sununu (R) - 11%

Texas

RCP - Talarico (D) - 48.4%, Paxton (R) - 46.9%

NS - Talarico (D) - 48.7%, Paxton (R) - 46.3%

FP1 - Talarico (D) - 59%, Paxton (R) - 41%

PM - Talarico (D) - 65%, Paxton (R) - 37%

Alaska

RCP - Peltola (D) - 49.0%, Sullivan (R) - 48.2%

NS - Peltola (D) - 47.9%, Sullivan (R) - 44.1%

FP1 - Peltola (D) - 66%, Sullivan (R) - 34%

PM - Peltola (D) - 74%, Sullivan (R) - 27%

Ohio

RCP - Brown (D) - 48.2%, Husted (R) - 44.9%

NS - Brown (D) - 48.2%, Husted (R) - 44.9%

FP1 - Brown (D) - 63%, Husted (R) - 37%

PM - Brown (D) - 69%, Husted (R) - 33%

Michigan

RCP - El-Sayed (D) - 47.9%, Rogers (R) - 46.0%

NS - El-Sayed (D) - 48.3%, Rogers (R) - 45.5%

FP1 - El-Sayed (D) - 66%, Rogers (R) - 34%

PM - El-Sayed (D) - 66%, Rogers (R) - 35%

Maine

RCP - Jackson (D) - 48.9%, Collins (R) - 47.5%

NS - Jackson (D) - 49.3%, Collins (R) - 47.1%

FP1 - Jackson (D) - 69%, Collins (R) - 31%

PM - Jackson (D) - 57%, Collins (R) - 43%

This is all very close. If you assume just a 3 point GOP under count, then they will win Texas, Alaska and Maine which is what I've been saying all along. Looks like they might take Michigan as well.

Election Time on the Midterms

 I found a video from a channel called Election Time that has a very different take of the Senate races. It predicts that the GOP will win 56 seats. It breaks down the competitive seats as follows:

Election Time GOP-56, Dems -44

GOP Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, IA, GA, TX

Dem Wins

NC

This is significantly different from other sites.

RCP No Tossups Dems - 52, GOP - 48

GOP Wins

IA

Dem Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, GA, TX, NC

Polymarket Dems - 52, GOP - 48

GOP Wins

IA

Dem Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, GA, TX, NC

Nate Silver Dems - 53, GOP - 47

GOP Wins

Dem Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, IA, GA, TX, NC

The Nate Silver list aren't really predictions but rather who is ahead in his polling average. 

My Personal Picks GOP - 53, Dems - 47

GOP Wins

AK, ME, IA, OH, MI, TX

Dem Wins

NH, MN, GA, NC