Thoughts on Growing Anti-Israeli Sentiment

I was born the same year that Israel was born (and King Charles). I have seen the constant wars and the constant terrorist attacks. I know the history of the region, which, I discovered, most anti-Israeli students don't. 

I have to ask a question, have these anti-Israel types lost their minds? I don't get it. How do you support people that cross a border to rape, murder and kidnap? That throw bombs into supermarkets and that criminalize or discriminate against LGBTQ people? 

Feel free to criticize the Israeli government. There has been a lot to criticize under Netanyahu, just like there has been a lot to criticize the US for under Trump. I don't like the idea of killing women and children with bombs and shells any more than anyone else. But I remember that bombs and shells wouldn't have been fired if it wasn't for the attack on October 7th 2023. 

I also know that the presence of civilians does not render military targets immune to attack but, there is a Principle of Proportionality. An attack cannot be launched if the expected incidental harm to civilians is excessive in relation to the military advantage anticipated.

That's a rule that has pretty much been ignored since the first army used starvation as a weapon to take a city. Besides, who gets to decide that it's "excessive in relation to the military advantage?"

Now that Netanyahu is out, hopefully Gadi Eisenkot, and his highly diverse coalition, will withdraw Israeli forces back to the original Yellow Line and find a way out of this mess. 

Medicare for All

The DSA types want to improve people's lives but their implementation and financial strategies simply don't work. Rather than trying to solve the issue, I'm going to propose an approach toward solving the issue.

The way to achieve Medicare for All is to put together a committee of experts and lawmakers to actually study the issues and come up with a recommendation. What are the issues?

(1) Finances - How much is MFA going to cost and how is it to be paid for? There are lots of financing options, we just need to pick the best ones.

(2) Administration - How is the program going to be administered and managed?

(3) Adequacy of Medical Infrastructure - MFA may lead to a massive increase in the demand for medical services. If so, then what's the plan for increasing our medical infrastructure?

(4) Scaling to 350 million people - Canada has 41 million people. The UK has 69 million people and Germany has 83 million people. Are there any issues in scaling a national health program to a nation of 350 million people that need to be addressed? 

You Weren't Close

 My predictions were certainly off. In particular both of my "gut feelings," Kansas and Maine, were wrong. 

But let's look at my rule of thumb and the actual results because the polls actually undercounted the Democrats. Applying my rule of thumb I came up with:

Dems 50, GOP 49, Tossup 1 (Texas)

But applying my rule of thumb to the actual results, the Dems get Texas, South Carolina, Ohio and Iowa but would have lost Alaska and Mississippi which would leave us with:

Dems 54, GOP 46

This is a result which is still possible. So the lesson is stick to the rules and ignore silly gut feelings which are really just biases overriding the numbers.

The Evening After

 Well, it has been almost about 24 hours and here's where we stand.

ell, it's the morning after.

8:00 PM

The Market actually ended up deciding that the Dem landslide was a good thing, at least for the moment. The Dow was up 1,569, NASDAQ was up 364 and the S&P was up 119. We'll see how things go tomorrow given that Iran now knows that a Democrat Congress will be trying to shackle Trump.

House of Representative

Dems - 242(+34), GOP - 151

NBC has now projected that the Dems will win control of the House 244-191. That's probably not over by a long shot. NBC has changed its projection to 248-187. I don't know why. NBC has changed its projection to 252-183. NBC has changed its projection to 255-180. NBC has changed its projection to 258-177. NBC has changed its projection to 259-176.

The GOP actually flipped one House seat. It was Texas District 32 which was one of the gerrymandered Texas Districts where Republicans hoped to pick up five seats. Looks like they won one.

Senate

Dems - 54(+7), GOP - 44(-7)

Governors

Dems - 21(+5), GOP - 12(-5)

In New Jersey, District 2 is still uncalled making 10-1-1 in favor of Dems.

Still two Senate races left.

Mississippi - Colom(D) leads Hyde-Smith(R) by 1,138 votes with an estimated 45,000 votes left to count. The remaining votes appear to have gone up since this morning.

Alaska - Peltola(D) leads Sullivan(R) by 637 votes with an estimated 74,000 votes left to count. I suspect that Alaska is going to take a couple of weeks especially since it looks like no one will have a majority so it will go to the ranked choice vote.

So how does rank choice voting work? Up to four candidates, the four with the most primary election votes, will be on the ballot. Each voter selects a 1st choice and can optionally select 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices. If no candidate gets 50%+1 votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. All of the voters that chose that candidate as 1st choice now have their votes moved to their second choice. This continues until a candidate has 50%+1 votes which is guaranteed to happen by the third round when only two candidates will be left.

The Morning After

Well, it's the morning after.

9:00 AM

Market Futures are confused. Dow is up 1,090, NASDAQ is up 125 and the S&P is up 83. I have a bad feeling that this is going to be a very strange and painful day in the market.

House of Representative

Dems - 231(+29), GOP - 144

NBC has now projected that the Dems will win control of the House 244-191. That's probably not over by a long shot. NBC has changed its projection to 248-187. I don't know why. NBC has changed its projection to 252-183. NBC has changed its projection to 255-180. NBC has changed its projection to 258-177.

Senate

Dems - 54(+7), GOP - 44(-7)

Governors

Dems - 21(+5), GOP - 12(-5)

Dems projected to take Minnesota (this turned around before I got into bed last night), Michigan and Maine (so perhaps Collins has run out of lives). The GOP is projected to take Nebraska, Idaho, Montana and Louisiana.

The GOP is projected to take the New Hampshire, Nebraska, Idaho and South Dakota governor's races. The Dems are projected to take the Maine, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Hawaii governor's races.

In New Jersey, District 2 is still uncalled making 10-1-1 in favor of Dems.

Still two Senate races left.

Mississippi - Colom(D) leads Hyde-Smith(R) by 43 votes with an estimated 44,000 votes left to count. I can't believe that we're talking about the Mississippi Senate race the morning after.

Alaska - Peltola(D) leads Sullivan(R) by 626 votes with an estimated 74,000 votes left to count. But Alaska has ranked choice voting so I'm not sure what happens now.

Election Night #2

It's 10 PM. Do you know where your candidates are? I figure I would start a new post at 10 PM.

 10:00 PM

House of Representative

Dems - 142(+10), GOP - 80

NBC has now projected that the Dems will win control of the House 244-191. That's probably not over by a long shot. NBC has changed its projection to 248-187. I don't know why.

Senate

Dems - 47(+3), GOP - 39(-3)

Governors

Dems - 11(+2), GOP - 5(-2)

I don't know who decides these things at NBC, but they have just decided that the Dems are projected to take South Carolina. Trust me, this one isn't over by a long shot. That howling you hear is Trump getting violent. GOP projected to take Alabama. GOP projected to take Arkansas. Dems projected to take Texas. Oh boy, that's going to be interesting.

GOP is projected to win the Arkansas governor's race. Dems projected to take the Ohio governor's race. GOP projected to take Vermont governor's race. Dems projected to win New Mexico governor's race. GOP is projected to win the South Carolina governor's race.

11:00 PM

In the meantime there is a HUGE sell off in Market Futures. Dow is down 429, NASDAQ is down 599 and the S&P is down 94.

House of Representative

Dems - 182(+20), GOP - 99

NBC has now projected that the Dems will win control of the House 244-191. That's probably not over by a long shot. NBC has changed its projection to 248-187. I don't know why. NBC has changed its projection to 252-183. NBC has changed its projection to 255-180.

Senate

Dems - 51(+6), GOP - 40(-6)

Governors

Dems - 15(+4), GOP - 6(-4)

Dems are projected to take Oregon. This gives the Dems a guaranteed +1 seat gain. In the meantime there is trouble in Minnesota. Tafoya has been leading Flanagan from the get go and that's not a good sign. Dems are projected to take Ohio. So they just need to hold Minnesota and Michigan, and figure out how to get Fetterman to behave and they have the Senate. However, Flanagan is losing in Minnesota and Fetterman could be a real problem. Dems are projected to take Kansas. Dems are projected to take Iowa. GOP projected to win South Dakota.

Dems are projected to take California and Wisconsin governors races. Dems are projected to take Texas governor's race. Oh yeah, get ready for a blizzard of lawsuits. Dems are projected to take the Iowa governor's race.

So what is going on with the remaining close Senate races.

Maine - Collins(R) has taken the lead over Jackson(D). I'm telling you, more lives than a cat. Jackson(D) has retaken the lead by an eyelash. Collins(R) back in front again. Jackson(D) has again taken the lead. This looks like a see-saw all night.

Minnesota - Flanagan(D) still trails Tafoya(R) and has from the beginning.

Michigan - Rogers(R) has closed the gap on El-Sayed(D).

Nebraska - Osborn(I) has a lead over Ricketts(R).

Alaska - Polls haven't closed yet.

Things are not completely lost for the GOP as long as the Dems have to rely on Fetterman. If he switches party, then the Dems are down to 50 and still need one more win.

11:52 PM

It is 11:52, I am tired and I am calling it a night.

In the meantime the sell off in Market Futures continues. Dow is down 364, NASDAQ is down 527 and the S&P is down 83.

Election Night #1

Well, we have arrived, election night, and the first polls will be closing in about a half hour. Let's put up the current balance. If you want to know, I voted for Cory Booker and Josh Gottheimer.

6:30 PM

House of Representative

Dems - 0, GOP - 0

Senate

Dems - 34, GOP - 31

7:00 PM

House of Representative

Dems - 18, GOP - 12

Senate

Dems - 36, GOP - 31

Dems projected to take Virginia. Dems projected to take Georgia.

8:00 PM

House of Representative

Dems - 63(+1), GOP - 29(-1)

Senate

Dems - 43(+1), GOP - 33(-1)

The polls in New Jersey have closed. The Dems projected to take Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware and Illinois. So, it looks like Cory Booker gets another 6 years. Dems projected to take New Hampshire. Dems projected to take North Carolina in the first flip of the night. GOP projected to take Florida. GOP projected to take West Virginia.

Dems projected to take Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Illinois governor races. Dems projected to take Rhode Island governor race.

Dems projected to take Districts 1, 3, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 in New Jersey which makes it 8-0-4.

9:00 PM

House of Representative

Dems - 112(+4), GOP - 57

Senate

Dems - 45(+1), GOP - 37(-1)

Governors

Dems - 9(+1), GOP - 2(-1)

The polls have closed in Michigan and Texas. Let the games begin. Dems projected to take Colorado and New Mexico. GOP projected to take Wyoming. GOP projected to take Kentucky. GOP projected to take Oklahoma. GOP projected to take Tennesee.

Dems projected to take Connecticut and Colorado governor races. GOP projected to take Wyoming governor race. Dems projected to take Georgia governor race. GOP projected to take Florida governor's race. Dems projected to take New York governor's race.

Dems projected to take Districts 5, 7 GOP is projected to take District 4, in New Jersey which makes it 10-1-1. So, good old Josh Gottheimer gets another 2 years in my district. 

My Final Predictions for the Senate III

I told you that I would probably be doing this. Apparently a new slew of polls have been released so I'm going to play my rule of thumb on the updated averages. We'll add one point for each time the state voted for Trump. I'll also look at Real Clear Politics (RCP) and Nate Silver (NS).

We start with GOP 44, Dems 43

Maine + 0 pts

RCP - Jackson + 2.8

NS - Jackson + 4

By my rules, this goes to Jackson but Collins is like a cat and I think she still has a life left. I'm going with my gut on this one.

Winner - Collins GOP

GOP 45, Dems 43

New Hampshire + 0 pts

RCP - Pappas + 8

NS - Pappas + 8.4

Winner - Pappas Dems

GOP 45, Dems 44

Ohio + 3 pts

RCP - Brown + 2.8

NS - Brown + 3

But we add 3 pts to the GOP.

Winner - Husted GOP

GOP 46, Dems 44

North Carolina + 3 pts

RCP - Cooper +10.8

NS - Cooper + 10.2

Winner - Cooper Dems

GOP 46, Dems 45

South Carolina + 3 pts

RCP - Graham +2.6

NS - Graham +1.3

Winner - Graham GOP

GOP 47, Dems 45

Georgia + 2 pts

RCP - Ossoff +8.2

NS - Ossoff +10.5

Winner - Ossoff Dems

GOP 47, Dems 46

Minnesota + 0 pts

RCP - Flanagan +5.2

NS - Flanagan +6.6

Winner - Flanagan Dems

GOP 47, Dems 47

Iowa + 3 pts

RCP - Hinson +0.5

NS - Turek +0.7

Winner - Hinson

GOP 48, Dems 47

Nebraska + 3 pts

RCP - Ricketts +3.7

NS - Ricketts +0.8

Winner - Ricketts

GOP 49, Dems 47

Kansas + 3 pts

RCP - Hamilton +3.6

NS - Hamilton + 3.3

By the rules Hamilton wins but Kansas? I don't believe it, and I'm going with my gut again as in both cases it's within a single point.

Winner - Marshall GOP

GOP 50, Dems 47

Alaska + 3 pts

RCP - Peltola +1.0

NS - Peltola +2.6

In both cases adding the Trump points flips the race to the GOP.

Winner - Sullivan GOP

GOP 51, Dems 47

Texas + 3 pts

RCP - Talarico _+2.6

NS - Talarico + 3.5

So adding the 3 Trump points splits this, but, again, I'm going with my gut and giving it to the GOP.

Winner - Paxton

GOP 52, Dems 47

Michigan + 2 pts

RCP - El-Sayed +5.0

NS - El-Sayed +4.7

The Trump points don't help so the state goes to the Dems.

Winner - El-Sayed

GOP 52, Dems 48

So there are three results that I can take from this exercise.

Result #1 - Ignore adding the Trump points and just go with the averages. If the averages don't agree, then it's a tossup.

Result #2 - Simply follow my rule of thumb and ignore my gut feelings. Again, if it's a split then it's a tossup.

Result #3 - Precisely as above with the Trump points and my gut feels.

Result #1 - Dems 53, GOP 46, Tossup 1 (Iowa)

Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska and Texas go to the Dems and Iowa becomes a tossup. I have absolutely zero confidence that this is going to happen.

Result #2 - Dems 50, GOP 49, Tossup 1 (Texas)

Maine and Kansas go to the Dems and Texas becomes a tossup.

Result #3 - GOP 52, Dems 48

This is the end of the guesswork. Tomorrow all will be revealed. My wife and I intend to go vote around noon and we shall see what we shall see.

My Final Predictions for the Senate II

My rule of thumb for the Senate is to take the Real Clear Politics average and then add 1 point to the GOP for each time the state has gone for Trump. Why? Because I'm convinced that there is a cadre of Trump supporters that either (1) live in rural areas difficult to reach by pollsters, (2) refuse to take polls or (3) actually lie to pollsters.

That gives the GOP Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas. Honestly, I never thought that Nebraska and South Carolina were ever really in play, but my rule of thumb gives them to the GOP easily anyway. As for Maine, Collins is like a cat and she may have one more life. I think the GOP takes Maine. I'm not sure what's going to happen in Michigan. 

So that gives the GOP 52 seats, the Dems 47 seats with one seat, Michigan, floating in the ether. My feeling is the Dems will take Michigan making it GOP 52 and Dems 48. I say that because even after applying my rule of thumb El-Sayed is up 1.5 points so, unless I've missed something here, the Dems take Michigan.

My Final Predictions for the Senate

With 6 days to go, my opinion has pretty much solidified. 

The Dems will win Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Georgia. 

The GOP is going to win Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, South Carolina, Alaska and Texas. I don't know who is going to win Michigan. 

I do find it strange that I even have to include South Carolina, Nebraska and Kansas. Honestly, I never thought that these seats were up for grabs, but there's been a lot of wild talk.

So that's either 51 or 52 seats for the GOP depending upon how Michigan goes. Since the Dems aren't taking the Senate anyway, I don't have to feel guilty about rooting against El-Sayed.

Israeli Elections

 In the meantime, over in Israel, all 120 seats of the Knesset are up for election. Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition appears to have collapsed as he struggles to maintain control. He chief rivel is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Exit polls indicate that neither will have an outright 61 seat majority. Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to collapse from 68 seats in the previous Knesset to 50 seats. Eisenkot’s bloc had 52 seats. In the meantime, Arab parties are projected to have a record 18 seats.

Gadi Eisenkot's views are not that much different from Netanyahu and he has lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza fighting. He views Iran as the primary strategic threat and advocates dismantling Hamas leadership and ending its rule. 

So, maybe we're not going to get a quick resolution to the fighting even if he displaces Netanyahu.

Eisenkot opposes the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. However, he rejects permanent one-state control and far-right expansionist proposals, favoring regional/administrative separation.

In other words, not much different from the West Bank today and perhaps Palestinian Authority control over Gaza.

This sounds like another stop gap measure rather than an actual solution.

Election Time Update

Election Time has updated its Senate map and the changes are significant.

Election Time GOP-50, Dems -50

GOP Wins

ME, IA, TX

Dem Wins

AK, NH, MN, OH, GA, NC, MI

This site was pretty GOP gung ho not that long ago, predicting 56 seats, so this is a really big change.