My Final Predictions for the Senate

With 6 days to go, my opinion has pretty much solidified. 

The Dems will win Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Georgia. 

The GOP is going to win Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, South Carolina, Alaska and Texas. I don't know who is going to win Michigan. 

I do find it strange that I even have to include South Carolina, Nebraska and Kansas. Honestly, I never thought that these seats were up for grabs, but there's been a lot of wild talk.

So that's either 51 or 52 seats for the GOP depending upon how Michigan goes. Since the Dems aren't taking the Senate anyway, I don't have to feel guilty about rooting against El-Sayed.

Israeli Elections

 In the meantime, over in Israel, all 120 seats of the Knesset are up for election. Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition appears to have collapsed as he struggles to maintain control. He chief rivel is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Exit polls indicate that neither will have an outright 61 seat majority. Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to collapse from 68 seats in the previous Knesset to 50 seats. Eisenkot’s bloc had 52 seats. In the meantime, Arab parties are projected to have a record 18 seats.

Gadi Eisenkot's views are not that much different from Netanyahu and he has lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza fighting. He views Iran as the primary strategic threat and advocates dismantling Hamas leadership and ending its rule. 

So, maybe we're not going to get a quick resolution to the fighting even if he displaces Netanyahu.

Eisenkot opposes the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. However, he rejects permanent one-state control and far-right expansionist proposals, favoring regional/administrative separation.

In other words, not much different from the West Bank today and perhaps Palestinian Authority control over Gaza.

This sounds like another stop gap measure rather than an actual solution.

Election Time Update

Election Time has updated its Senate map and the changes are significant.

Election Time GOP-50, Dems -50

GOP Wins

ME, IA, TX

Dem Wins

AK, NH, MN, OH, GA, NC, MI

This site was pretty GOP gung ho not that long ago, predicting 56 seats, so this is a really big change.

The Midterm Stretch IV

I'm changing the format. I'm dropping the New York Governor's race because that looks like a done deal. I'm just going to list the current numbers in the Senate races and forget about highlighting changes. I'm going to look at all the competitive Senate races.

I don't know what to believe any more. Most pollsters are doubling down on a big Dem night, although some have started to hedge their bets. More than a few people are taking the position that the polls are flawed and there's going to be a big surprise on November 3rd. I still think Texas, Alaska and Maine will go to the GOP.

I suppose that we shall see what we shall see.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 227, GOP - 183, Tossups - 25

Polymarket has it Dems - 235, GOP - 200

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 44, Tossups - 10

Dem Pickups - NC

Dem Hold -  NH, GA

Tossups - ME, OH, MI, TX, AK, IA, MN, KS, NE, SC

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, ME, AK

Dem Hold - NH, MI, GA

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, AK, OH, TX, ME

Dem Holds - NH, GA, MI

Individual Senate Races

I'm going to include here Real Clear Politics (RCP), Nate Silver (NS), FiftyPlusOne (FP1) and Polymarket (PM). 

Minnesota

RCP - Flannagan (D) - 46.6%, Tafoya (R) - 43.2%

NS -  Flannagan (D) - 48.0%, Tafoya (R) - 43.3%

FP1 - Flannagan (D) - 84%, Tafoya (R) - 16%

PM - Flannagan (D) - 83%, Tafoya (R) - 18%

New Hampshire

RCP - Pappas (D) - 46.6%, Sununu (R) - 43.2%

NS - Pappas (D) - 49.7%, Sununu (R) - 42.4%

FP1 - Pappas (D) - 92%, Sununu (R) - 8%

PM - Pappas (D) - 90%, Sununu (R) - 11%

Texas

RCP - Talarico (D) - 48.4%, Paxton (R) - 46.9%

NS - Talarico (D) - 48.7%, Paxton (R) - 46.3%

FP1 - Talarico (D) - 59%, Paxton (R) - 41%

PM - Talarico (D) - 65%, Paxton (R) - 37%

Alaska

RCP - Peltola (D) - 49.0%, Sullivan (R) - 48.2%

NS - Peltola (D) - 47.9%, Sullivan (R) - 44.1%

FP1 - Peltola (D) - 66%, Sullivan (R) - 34%

PM - Peltola (D) - 74%, Sullivan (R) - 27%

Ohio

RCP - Brown (D) - 48.2%, Husted (R) - 44.9%

NS - Brown (D) - 48.2%, Husted (R) - 44.9%

FP1 - Brown (D) - 63%, Husted (R) - 37%

PM - Brown (D) - 69%, Husted (R) - 33%

Michigan

RCP - El-Sayed (D) - 47.9%, Rogers (R) - 46.0%

NS - El-Sayed (D) - 48.3%, Rogers (R) - 45.5%

FP1 - El-Sayed (D) - 66%, Rogers (R) - 34%

PM - El-Sayed (D) - 66%, Rogers (R) - 35%

Maine

RCP - Jackson (D) - 48.9%, Collins (R) - 47.5%

NS - Jackson (D) - 49.3%, Collins (R) - 47.1%

FP1 - Jackson (D) - 69%, Collins (R) - 31%

PM - Jackson (D) - 57%, Collins (R) - 43%

This is all very close. If you assume just a 3 point GOP under count, then they will win Texas, Alaska and Maine which is what I've been saying all along. Looks like they might take Michigan as well.

Election Time on the Midterms

 I found a video from a channel called Election Time that has a very different take of the Senate races. It predicts that the GOP will win 56 seats. It breaks down the competitive seats as follows:

Election Time GOP-56, Dems -44

GOP Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, IA, GA, TX

Dem Wins

NC

This is significantly different from other sites.

RCP No Tossups Dems - 52, GOP - 48

GOP Wins

IA

Dem Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, GA, TX, NC

Polymarket Dems - 52, GOP - 48

GOP Wins

IA

Dem Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, GA, TX, NC

Nate Silver Dems - 53, GOP - 47

GOP Wins

Dem Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, IA, GA, TX, NC

The Nate Silver list aren't really predictions but rather who is ahead in his polling average. 

My Personal Picks GOP - 53, Dems - 47

GOP Wins

AK, ME, IA, OH, MI, TX

Dem Wins

NH, MN, GA, NC

Fake Polling Data

Wedgewood Polls has admitted to releasing fake poll results including one that may have driven state Sen. Mallory McMorrow out of the Michigan Democratic Primary for Senator.

Wedgewood made the admission after election analysis website FiftyPlusOne said Tuesday that it had launched an investigation into how Wedgewood had conducted their survey research.

Wedgewood now says the poll’s data was fake and was an “experiment” designed to be a “wake-up call” to voters about the vulnerabilities of modern polling.

Well isn't that just special?

Apparently Wedgewood's "poll results" have been referred to on mainstream media and have been included in polling averages including those published by Nate Silver. Silver has updated his numbers resulting in a slight improvement in Republican chances.

Then they want to know why we don't trust polls. I can't wait for Mike Johnson to run with this one.

The Midterm Stretch III

 We're going to see if anything has changed from a week ago and I've added a Dem hold line for races that are currently in the Dem column but lookclose.

Still going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket. Bold = Change, Bold + Italics = Gain.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 187 (-2), Tossups - 22 (+2)

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 46, Tossups - 8

Dem Pickups - NC

Dem Hold -  NH, GA

Tossups - ME, OH, MI, TX, AK, IA, MN, KS

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME, IA

Dem Hold - NH, MI, GA

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Dem Holds - NH, GA, MI

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.5% (+0.4), Paxton (R) - 46.3% (+1.0)

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 48.8% (-0.2), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.2)

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 64% (+1), Paxton (R) - 37% (-1)

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1% (-0.3), Rogers (R) - 45.5% (-0.2)

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.7% (+0.6), Rogers (R) - 45.1% (-0.6)

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 68% (+5), Rogers (R) - 32% (-1)

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 53.3%, Blakeman (R) - 40.5%

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 53.5% (+0.7), Blakeman (R) - 39.5% (-1.0)

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 95% (-1), Blakeman (R) - 5% (+1)

Allan Lichtman on the Senate

The historian and political analyst Allan Lichtman on the 2026 race for the Senate and I figured that I would capture that for future reference. Here is what he is saying about the competitive races.

Seats that he predicts that Democrats will hold.

New Hampshire - Democrat Chris Pappas

Michigan - Democrat Abdul El-Sayed

Seats that he predicts Democrats will flip.

Maine - Democrat Troy Jackson

North Carolina - Democrat Roy Cooper

Ohio - Democrat Sherrod Brown

Texas - Democrat Janes Talarico

Alaska - Democrat Mary Peltola

So that would make it 52-48 in favor of the Democrats.

I have the same fundamental problem here. Lichtman is placing a lot of importance on the horrible poll numbers for Trump. But being mad at Trump, and not voting Republican are two different things. I don't think the Democrats are going to take Maine or Texas and they may not take Alaska. I don't think they're going to hold Michigan either.

That would make it 51-49 or 52-49 for the GOP depending on Alaska.