Showing posts with label World Events. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Events. Show all posts

Friday, July 31, 2026

Hamas Willing to Disarm?

 There's a rumor floating around the internet that Hamas has offered to disarm if Israel will stop their strikes and withdraw from Gaza.

I don't know how true this is, but, for the moment, let's assume it's true.

In any other circumstance, this might be considered victory. But can anyone really believe what Hamas says?

I would want Hezbollah and Iran included in any "peace" agreement and the stationing of UN Observers in Gaza to insure compliance.

But this could be a major step in the right direction. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Wednesday, July 08, 2026

Iran Ceasefire Appears to Fall Apart

And things are going to hell in the Middle East again. Apparently Iran fired at some ship in the Strait of Hormuz and CENTCOM is trying to  "further degrade [Iran's] ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."

I've said this before, and I'll say it again, I suspect that Iran's Command & Control structure is fractured so it's going to be really hard to get stuff under control. It doesn't take much to fire at a ship the strait.

Predictably, the Stock Market didn't take this news well. I'll suppose we'll have to wait and see what happens.

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Iran Agreement 14 Points

 The 14 core points of the initial agreement include:

  1. End of Military Operations: An immediate and permanent halt to military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
  2. Mutual Non-Aggression: A commitment to refrain from the threat or use of force against one another.
  3. Respect for Sovereignty: An undertaking to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, specifically ensuring the sovereignty of Lebanon.
  4. 60-Day Negotiation Window: A commitment to negotiate and achieve a finalized deal within a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
  5. Lift Naval Blockade: The U.S. will begin immediately lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports and will completely end it within 30 days.
  6. Strait of Hormuz: Iran will use its best efforts to arrange for the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, free of charge for 60 days.
  7. Reconstruction Plan: The U.S. and regional partners will undertake a plan of at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran.
  8. End of Sanctions: The U.S. commits to terminating all types of sanctions against Iran, contingent on nuclear compliance.
  9. No Nuclear Weapons: Iran reaffirms its commitment that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.
  10. Disposition of Stockpiled Material: The U.S. and Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of Iran's stockpiled enriched nuclear material.
  11. Nuclear Status Quo: Pending the final deal, both sides will maintain the status quo of Iran's nuclear program; the U.S. will not impose new sanctions or deploy additional forces.
  12. Oil Export Waivers: The U.S. Treasury Department will issue waivers allowing the immediate, unhindered export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and all associated banking and transportation services.
  13. Dispute Mechanism: Provisions for resolving disputes that may arise during the 60-day interim phase before the final agreement is signed.
  14. Final Deal Integration: A stipulation that the final deal will permanently confirm the termination of the war and codify the lasting provisions of the interim agreement.
Honestly, the treaty Obama had in place was much better. Trump is an idiot. That being said, I'm glad the killing has stopped and I hope that it will stay stopped.

Monday, June 15, 2026

The Iranian Deal

According to Trump, he has made a deal to end the fighting in the Middle East. Unfortunately, no one has seen the text of the deal and we're hearing contradictory things from Trump and JD Vance.

The best I can make of it is:

(1) The Strait of Hormuz gets opened but it's unclear if there will be tolls or not.

(2) If Iran doesn't rebuild its nuclear capability then it get access to money? I'm reading between the lines here.

(3) If it does rebuild its nuclear capability then it doesn't get access?

(4) The Gulf States and the US, according to JD Vance, are putting together a $300 billion fund to help rebuild Iranian infrastructure. I assume this is the money they get access to plus the $100 billion currently frozen but I'm not sure. Trump has denied that such a fund exists.

(5) If the Israelis keep attacking Lebanon then the deal is off, and the Israelis haven't agreed to stop doing so because they're not signatories to the deal.

As you can see from the above, I don't really know a whole hell of a lot and apparently neither do the Israelis who claim they haven't seen the deal either.

More to follow when more information is available.

Thursday, April 23, 2026

The Trump Administration

It’s the Clown Cabinet headed by a petulant toddler. The team he sent to negotiate with the Iranians is the Buffoon Brigade. But the really bad news is that 40% of the electorate appear to think that he’s doing a great job. I don’t get it. I really don’t. 

I will now rant for a couple of paragraphs so feel free to ignore me.

During the 2024 election I agreed that we needed to address illegal immigration. I wanted DEI to go away and I was sick and tired of the “woke” bullshit (“woke” = declaring anyone that disagreed with the left as racist, misogynist, homophobic, transphobic or some other nasty name and the constant race swapping in movies and on TV).

Having a degree in Economics, I understood the dynamics of inflation coming out of the pandemic better than most, and understood that the worst was over.

But, I didn’t trust Trump or the Republicans to address immigration and DEI and the “woke” bullshit I could live with. They certainly weren’t a big enough problem to put Trump back in the White House.

I also understood that Trump was lying about bringing down prices on day one. I told everyone I could reach that this was nonsense. We all see how well I did with that.

I am honestly surprised that he was stupid enough to attack Iran. The geography is all in their favor. The world economy is now in a mess thanks to Trump's incompetence.

I get the issue of not wanting Iran to have nukes. But Trump went about it the wrong way and that may be worse than doing nothing.

Sunday, April 19, 2026

To Hormuz or not to Hormuz

The US Navy is now supposedly blockading the Straits of Hormuz in order to prevent Iranian ships from passing through. The Navy has reportedly seized at least one Iranian flagged ship.

The Iranians opened the straits for a short while but then closed them again. They have reportedly fired on at least one ship which was flying the Indian flag.

I have to say things like "supposedly" and "reportedly" because honestly, I don't know what the hell is actually going on, and it's next to impossible to figure out what reports to believe.

The ceasefire ends on Tuesday and talks are supposed to resume on Monday. We all saw how well talks went the last time around.

I suspect one of the problems is that Trump and company want a quick resolution while the Iranians want to drag things out and see how good a deal they can broker.

The market has pretty much recovered but we'll see what happens next week.

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Genocidal, Apartheid, Colonialist

Genocidal, Apartheid and Colonialist are the three accusations that the US Left likes to toss against Israel. OK, Let's take a look.

Genocidal? The Palestinian population has increased 5x since 1967. That's not much of a genocide. 

Apartheid? The area is separated into three major regions. Gaza, Israel proper and the West Bank. Gaza is Palestinian and has a population of about 2.2 million. It's also controlled by the terrorist group Hamas. 

Israel has a population of 10 million of which 2 million are Palestinians. These Palestinians are Israeli citizens with full rights but face challenges similar to other ethnic minorities in other countries. 

The West Bank is further divided into Areas A, B and C as agreed to in the Oslo Accords in 1993. Area A is under the full control of the Palestinian Authority. Area B is under civil control of the Palestinian Authority but Israel provides security. Areas A & B have a population of around 3.3 million Palestinians. Area C is fully under Israeli control. There are about 400,000 Israeli settlers in Area C with Israeli citizenship and around 300,000 Palestinians with Palestinian Authority citizenship.

Travel for Palestinians within the West Bank, and between the West Bank and just about anywhere else, is severely restricted. The Israeli settlements in the West Bank are of questionable legality. The consensus of opinion is that they violate the Fourth Geneva Convention which prohibits an occupying power from transferring its civilians into occupied territory. Israel disputes this, arguing the territory is "disputed" rather than occupied.

Let's face it, Israel is an occupying power in the West Bank thus the extensive travel restrictions. Areas A&B are essentially isolated because they are surrounded by Israeli controlled territory. It's almost a military blockade but it's not apartheid. On the other hand, a country has the right to control who enters its territory. In other words, it's a royal mess.

Colonialist? Well, there are 400,000 Israeli settlers in Area C of the West Bank. Depending upon the legal status of Area C, that may well be colonialism.

Then there is East Jerusalem which was occupied by Israel during the 1967 war and officially annexed by it in 1980. The United Nations considers East Jerusalem as part of Palestinian Territories. Funny how no one complained when Jordan Annexed both the West Bank and East Jerusalem in 1950. The annexation was even recognized by the UK, Iraq and Pakistan. However Jordan essentially ceded sovereignty of the West Bank and East Jerusalem to the Palestinian Liberation Organization in 1988.

Friday, April 10, 2026

The Ignorance is Amazing

We all know that MAGAs simply parrot whatever they're told but the left isn't much better. They have evolved Israel into some imaginary bogeyman that, in their minds, has been pulling the strings in every confrontation the US has been involved in anywhere close to the Middle East.

For example, this post about wars that Israel has supposedly gotten the US into.

"Start with 9/11, Iraq, Syria, Libya, 

Afghanistan -20 YEARS.

Now Iran and who else???"

My response: (Yes, I got a little petulant because this isn't the first post like this)

What the hell are you talking about? Do yourself a favor and learn some actual history.

9/11 was an attack by Al-Qeada. It was primarily about US troops in Saudi Arabia although US support for Israel was also part of the motive. 

Let's face it, Arab Muslims in the Middle East have been trying to destroy Israel since 1948 and Arabs and Jews have been fighting over the region since at least the establishment of the Mandate for Palestine in 1922.

9/11 led directly to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Syria was all about ISIS and denying Russia control of the area.

The US has a strategic interest in the Middle East and has slowly been expanding its sphere of influence there. We have 50,000 troops spread out over Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. We also have friendly relations (in other words we give them money) with Israel and Egypt but no troops in either country. So Israel is just a small part of the total equation. 

Essentially you are blaming the mouse (Israel) for the actions of the elephant (the US).

Iran is the next logical step but it's a lot to chew off. US Presidents before Trump have been smart enough not to get into a confrontation because the geography is all in Iran's favor. 

Israel wants to eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah because they regularly fire missiles at Israel killing civilians. Imagine if Mexico and Canada fired missiles randomly at the US. Iran bankrolls Hamas and Hezbollah. I don't blame Israel for wanting to take down Iran. I blame Trump and Hegseth for letting Netanyahu talk them into thinking an air assault alone would manage to do that. We all see how well that worked out.

Which Libya are you talking about? In 1986 it was in retaliation for a Berlin bombing. In 2011 it was a UN sanctioned action that led to the fall of the Gaddafi regime. Israel wasn't involved in either of these two actions.

Thursday, March 19, 2026

What's Going on in Iran?

That's a good question.

There isn't a lot of reliable information about the situation. The media is going wild and ushering in a new era of Yellow Journalism. They are publishing whatever they think will frighten the public and get the most clicks.

Trump has no idea what's going on and continues to make absurd proclamations. Hegseth uses briefings to play politics.

From what I can tell, Israel and the US are slowly dismantling Iran's ability to wage war. Israel, less squeamish than the US, has also been working on chopping off the head of the beast by eliminating Iran's leadership.

This could take a while and it's only been about three weeks. 

I would assume the ultimate objective is an Iranian government devoid of Islamic crazies that will cease to be a threat to the region and stop financing terrorist organization like Hezbollah and Hamas.

I don't see how that gets accomplished without a popular uprising.

The Stock Market is taking a beating due to rising oil and gas prices. Of course a higher than expected inflation report didn't help any. Overall the market is down about 5,000 points from its high in February. I'm personally down around $80,000 (ouch).

Right about now I see no end in sight but I suspect things will be settled by the summer one way or the other.

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Trump's War

Trump's war continues. The Stock Market is in free fall, oil is over $100 a barrel which is driving gas prices through the roof.

Iran has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, no big surprise there, but now appears to be willing to allow any but US and Israeli ships to go through.

We'll see how that works out and if it will alleviate the oil prices and stock market woes.

Saturday, February 28, 2026

US and Israel Attack Iran

The US and Israel have launched air strikes against Iran. Iran has attacked US bases and neighboring Arab countries in retaliation.

The concern is that Iran continues its nuclear program and may be developing long range missiles.

Does this make any sense?

I honestly don't know. My initial reaction is that Trump is crazy. I can understand Netanyahu's concern because Israel will be within range of an Iranian nuclear capability long before the US is. 

But is this the right approach? Armed conflict should always be a last resort because so many things can go wrong. So, until proven otherwise, mark me as opposed to this attack.


Sunday, January 04, 2026

Maduro

I know I've been falling down on the down and allowing too much stuff to slide by. I'm just tired.

So, Trump actually sent a military mission to Venezuela, arrested (kidnapped?) Nicolás Maduro and his wife to face drug charges here in the US and flattened a few installations killing some people here and there, mostly there.

I don't know what to make of this. I suppose we will have to wait and see.

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Gaza

Apparently Netanyahu is accusing Hamas of breaking the ceasefire and is blowing shit up again. 

Does this really surprise anyone?

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Gaza Ceasefire Coming Apart?

According to the Israelis they have been fired upon near the town of Rafah in southern Gaza.

The Israelis called this a blatant breach of the ceasefire and struck back targeting "weapons storage facilities, firing posts, terrorist cells" and infrastructure . They also cut off humanitarian aid.

Local health authorities reported that at least 19 people were killed in the attacks.

Hamas said that it was out of contact with fighters in Rafah and remains committed to the ceasefire.

There's an old truism that says if you don't completely destroy your enemy then you will only have to fight them again. I know that sounds barbaric but war is not exactly civilized.

But what's the point of signing a ceasefire only to break it a few days later?

Some claim that the Islamic concept of "taqiyya" not only allows Muslims to be deceitful with infidels but even requires it in certain situations. I don't know if that's true or not but it's not very encouraging.

Maybe they're just trying to make Trump look bad? Honestly, he doesn't need much help doing that.

Monday, October 13, 2025

Gaza War Over?

Trump has apparently helped to negotiate at least a ceasefire and perhaps a peace treaty in Gaza.

The remaining hostages have been returned in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and the IDF has withdrawn to defensive positions.

Trump seems confident and has declared the war over. It would be nice if he's right but only time will tell.

Sunday, September 28, 2025

Who "Owns" Palestine?

Far too many people seem to think there's a clear answer to that question.

Arabs and Jews were both living in Palestine when the Ottoman Empire was dismantled after WW I. 

Both the Arabs and the Jews had been promised things for their support during WW I. The Arabs an independent state and the Jews a "national home." Leave it to the British to be vague in their terminology. The League of Nations agreed that the Jews were to have a "national home" in Palestine. The Jews have always interpreted "national home" to mean a Jewish state and the UN agreed with that interpretation after WW II.

Ultimately Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Iraq were created as independent states. The UN, in 1947, proposed a partition of Palestine into an Arab and a Jewish state with Jerusalem as an international city.

However, the partition plan was refused by the Arabs resulting in first a Palestinian Civil War and then a full scale war after Israel declared its existence in 1948.

The war was a disaster for the Palestinian Arabs. Israel ended up controlling about 77% of the land, including most of Jerusalem, Jordan controlled the West Bank and Egypt controlled Gaza. About 700,000 Palestinian Arabs were expelled or fled during the war.

Friday, August 08, 2025

Israel and Gaza City

 Israel has announced that it intends to occupy Gaza City.

The city has largely been leveled by artillery and bombing making it a perfect defensive area. Hamas says moving into Gaza City will not be easy.

European allies, including Germany and Britain, have expressed concern over the move. Germany has halted military exports which could be used in the takeover.

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee (dear lord, that is a phrase I never thought I would have to articulate) has expressed concern that countries appeared to be putting pressure on Israel rather than on the militant group Hamas, whose deadly attack on Israel in 2023 started the war.

The Israeli opposition party and families of the hostages criticized Netanyahu for a decision that they said would put hostages' lives at risk.

It's becoming clearer and clearer each day that Netanyahu is misusing this war for his own ends and possibly to avoid prosecution if he is voted out of office. Netanyahu's government unanimously voted Monday to fire Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, who is currently prosecuting him for corruption. No wonder he and Trump are good buddies.

I think that negotiating a real ceasefire, including the return of any hostages still alive, would be the better way to go. Of course that's the rub. After almost two years, are any left alive?

I have staunchly supported Israel in this war. When a nation is attacked, then it has the right to respond to that attack and even demand an unconditional surrender from the attacking country.

But I'm beginning to wonder if the pursuit of this war has lost its focus. Perhaps it's time to consider putting an end to it and saving any remaining hostages. If none are left to save, then heaven help Gaza.


Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Air India Flight 171

On June 12th, 2025, Air India flight 171 took off from Ahmedabad India enroute to London England with 230 passengers and 12 crew aboard. About 32 seconds into the flight the Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner went down just beyond the end of the runway into some building.

One person, in seat 11A, literally walked away from the crash. The other 241 people on board were killed along with 19 people on the ground.

The tragedy was caught on multiple videos which, following the crash, were dissected in an attempt to determine what may have gone wrong. One clear clue was that the Ram Air Turbine (RAT) had deployed which indicated a possible loss of power. There was also some speculation about the flaps being in the wrong position.

The pilots were both seasoned fliers. The Captain was Sumeet Sabharwal, 56, who had logged approximately 15,600 flight hours, including nearly 8,600 hours on the Boeing 787. The first officer, Clive Kunder, 32, had around 3,400 flight hours, with around 1,100 hours on the Boeing 787. 

Now it's been a long time since my FAA days but I figured I would wait for the preliminary report from the Indian government because speculating.

Now the preliminary report has been released and perhaps raises more questions than it answers. 

First the What

The cause of the crash was the loss of power in both engines. The flaps were in the proper position and the RAT had indeed been deployed in response to the loss of engine power. The preliminary report listed the following sequence of events from the flight recorder:

08:07:33 UTC - Take-off clearance was issued

08:07:37 UTC - The aircraft started rolling.

08:08:33 UTC - The aircraft hit decision speed V1 and achieved 153 kts.

08:08:35 UTC - The Vr speed of 155 kts was achieved.

08:08:39 UTC - The aircraft lifted off.

08:08:42 UTC - The aircraft achieved the maximum recorded airspeed of 180 Knots.

Then the following quotes are in the report:

"The Engine 1 and Engine 2 fuel cutoff switches transitioned from RUN to CUTOFF position one after another with a time gap of 01 sec."

"The Engine N1 and N2 began to decrease from their take-off values as the fuel supply to the engines was cut off."

"In the cockpit voice recording, one of the pilots is heard asking the other why did he cutoff.
The other pilot responded that he did not do so."

"The aircraft started to lose altitude before crossing the airport perimeter wall."

"As per the EAFR data both engines N2 values passed below minimum idle speed, and the RAT hydraulic pump began supplying hydraulic power at about 08:08:47 UTC."

"As per the EAFR, the Engine 1 fuel cutoff switch transitioned from CUTOFF to RUN at about 08:08:52 UTC."

"The APU Inlet Door began opening at about 08:08:54 UTC, consistent with the APU Auto Start logic."

"Thereafter at 08:08:56 UTC the Engine 2 fuel cutoff switch also transitions from CUTOFF to RUN."

"Engine 1’s core deceleration stopped, reversed and started to progress to recovery."

"Engine 2 was able to relight but could not arrest core speed deceleration and re-introduced fuel repeatedly to increase core speed acceleration and recovery."

"The EAFR recording stopped at 08:09:11 UTC"

"At about 08:09:05 UTC, one of the pilots transmitted “MAYDAY MAYDAY MAYDAY”.

So, my summary would be:

(1) Both fuel cutoff switches went from run to cutoff in the space of about 1 second.

(2) One pilot (who is not identified in the report) asked the other why he cutoff the fuel and the other pilot replied that he didn't.

(3) About 10 seconds later fuel was restored to engine 1 which began its recovery sequence.

(4) About 4 second later fuel was restored to engine 2 which also began its recovery sequence.

(5) Engine 1 started to recovery but engine 2 was unable to stop deceleration.

The bottom line seems to be that the aircraft was too close to the ground to recover from the fuel cutoff to both engines and crashed.

Now the Why

The preliminary report is clearly incomplete and has led to a host of speculation and additional questions. First the questions.

#1 - Which pilot asked the question about the cutoff and which denied he had done it?

#2 - Were both pilots truly perplexed about the fuel cutoff or was one faking it.

#3 - To turn the fuel switch to cutoff, you have to lift the spring loaded switch, move it and then drop it down. Can a human do that in 1 second or is the time interval in the report wrong?

#4 - Why wait 10 second and then another 4 second to restore fuel to the engines?

I have seen three hypotheses about what happened.

Hypothesis #1 - One person was talking about a chip that, if it failed, could cause fuel to be cutoff to both engines.

This would explain the short time interval between switch changes and the confusion of the pilots. It might also explain the 10 second delay because the switches might appear to still be in the ON position.

I don't buy this one for three reasons. He didn't identify the mysterious chip. No engineer in his right mind would approve a design where a single chip failure could cut off fuel to both engines. If such a chip failed, then how did they restart the engines?

Hypothesis #2 - From the report:

"The FAA issued Special Airworthiness Information Bulletin (SAIB) No. NM-18-33 on December 17, 2018, regarding the potential disengagement of the fuel control switch locking feature."

"The airworthiness concern was not considered an unsafe condition that would warrant airworthiness directive (AD) by the FAA."

From SAIB No. NM-18-33:

"The fuel control switch has a locking feature to prevent inadvertent operation that could result in unintended switch movement between the fuel supply and fuel cutoff positions. In order to move the switch from one position to the other under the condition where the locking feature is engaged, it is necessary for the pilot to lift the switch up while transitioning the switch position. If the locking feature is disengaged, the switch can be moved between the two positions without lifting the switch during transition, and the switch would be exposed to the potential of inadvertent operation."

One has to wonder why this was not considered an "unsafe condition?" Of course one also has to wonder why no one had noticed this on this aircraft if the locking mechanism was indeed disengaged? The locks would have been disengaged on previous flights and pilots would certainly have noticed the problem.

So could vibrations during takeoff cause both switches to transition from ON to CUTOFF? That seems unlikely, but so does a human moving both switches in one second if the spring lock is engaged. What about if it's not engaged?

This might resolve the short timeframe between switches changing and the confusion of the pilots but I don't see them waiting 10 seconds to resolve the situation.

Hypothesis #3 - One of the pilot purposely moved the switches and caused the aircraft to crash.

The FO was reportedly flying the plane and both hands would be engaged with the stick and the thruster. Besides, if he wanted to crash the plane he probably could have done so without needing to shut off the fuel. Although he might have has reasons to make the reason for the crash less obvious.

That leaves the Captain. But WHY?

The other mystery is why the 10 second gap between the fuel being cut off and the attempt to restart the engines. I can only think of two reasons, conflict or confusion.

The conflict would be the result of one pilot trying to restore fuel flow and the other trying to stop him.

As for the confusion, I wonder if there is any way in pluperfect hell, other than the chip failure idea, that fuel could have been cut off to both engines, triggering the alarms, even though the switches remained in the ON position. That might have required the switches to be turned to CUTOFF and then back to ON. I would certainly has paused a few seconds if the alarms and the switches were telling different stories.

What do I think

As I said I find Hypothesis #1 highly implausible and I'm not happy with #2 and #3 either. Without a lot more evidence I refuse to believe that either pilot would do such a thing. Perhaps when more information is available, a fourth hypothesis will appear.

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Iran-Israeli Ceasefire

Trump appears to have managed a fragile, but so far reasonably stable, ceasefire between Iran and Israel. How long that will hold up is up in the air.

In the meantime the Pentagon now says that the attack on Iranian nuclear sites wasn't a complete success and may have only delayed the Iranian nuclear program by 6-9 months.

Regardless, it appears to have gotten the Iranians to the negotiating table.

Monday, June 23, 2025

Iran Strikes Back

Iran has attacked a US military base in Qatar. The Qatari say that no damage was done and they sound kind of pissed. They have said they reserve the right to respond. So the conflict potentially spreads.

My question is why do we have a military base in Qatar?