Friday, October 11, 2024

The 2024 Election, October 11, 2024

I've cut the number of sites again to just the ones that seem to regularly update. Besides, I'm becoming convinced that, unless something drastic happens in the next couple of weeks, that Trump is going to easily win this election. I suspect the media is artificially trying to maintain interest by continuing to say how close things are. I don't think they're that close.

Electoral Vote

Trump -246 (-16), Harris - 247 (-29), Toss Up - 45 (+45)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -302 (+21), Harris - 236 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (+30), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 94 (-30)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (-25), Toss Up - 93 (+25)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (-6), Toss Up - 93 (+6)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -296 (+15), Harris - 242 (-15), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Again we have a shift towards Trump who clearly has all of the momentum. Add to this that I have always suspected that he will outperform the polls and it tells me that, unless a disaster occurs, Trump will win easily.

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