This sounds more and more like 2016 again. The momentum for Trump is definitely there just like it was there in 2016. I check the data on a weekly basis and the shift to Trump has been very clear.
I was at the early voting site yesterday and the number of voters made it complete chaos. But I saw very few young voters. That's bad. Older voters were out in force and younger voters were no where to be seen.
The voter turnout in 2020 was 66% of voting eligible population (63% of voting age population) and it will probably be about that again. The states that depress voter turnout numbers are actually the red states which rarely get above 60%. This is possibly because red states make it harder to vote.
Blue states have much higher turnout which is probably why the Democrat candidate wins the popular vote even though they lose the electoral vote.
The REAL problem though is that 72% of people over 65 vote but only 48% of those between 18 and 24 vote. I'm 76 so trust me on this, if you're young and just starting out building a career and a family you DO NOT want my age group making decisions for you.
So Trump wins and the Republicans probably hold the House and take the Senate. How much damage can they do? They didn't do a lot last time because they're not only bat shit crazy but incompetent. Things that I do expect to happen are:
(1) Trump's 2017 tax cuts will be extended if not made permanent.
(2) We'll get another corporate tax cut and may get another tax cut across the board. If we do then it will drive the debt through the roof because tax cuts never pay for themselves.
(3) As laid out in Project 2025 they resurrect Schedule F which will allow the replacement of many, possibly thousands, of civil servants with political appointees. This will be the most dangerous thing to happen because it removes lots of sanity checks.
(4) Ukraine is probably going to see US support dry up but other countries may step in to fill the void. Hopefully that war will end before too much more damage occurs.
(5) Israel will probably get more support. There may or may not be a crack down on the crazies claiming to be pro-Palestine when they have no idea of what the real issues are in the Middle East.
(6) The GOP will try and fail to get national abortion restrictions enacted but it will be a messy fight.
(7) Religion, especially conservative Protestantism, will get a boost in influence. How long this will last is unclear.
(8) LGBTQ, and especially trans, rights will take some hits. At the very least trans women probably won't be competing in woman's sports any more.
It's going to be an uncomfortable four years but I doubt we'll turn into Nazi Germany.
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