Friday, August 23, 2024

The 2024 Election, August 23, 2024

I've noticed that some of these sites I've selected to track just aren't updating as often as I thought. I will mark sites that haven't updated in italics. I've also added four sites, Polling Map, Sabatos Crystal Ball, JHK Forecasts and Polymarket Odds, that have updated. I dropped Inside Elections because it hasn't updated since May.

Electoral Vote

Trump -241 (NC), Harris - 262 (-19), Toss Up - 35 (+19)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (NC), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 110 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (-33), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77

538 Model

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 68 (+18)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

There are now 12 prediction sites listed. Two have Trump with enough electoral votes to win the election and seven others have him leading. None have Harris with enough votes which is a change from last week and three have her leading.


No comments: