Another Friday and another update. The big story recently has been that Nat Silver has declared that Trump has a 58% chance of winning to Harris' 41%. All of the ring wing news outlets have been running hard with this story. Personally, I'm not that impressed with Silver's model.
Again sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.
Electoral Vote
Trump -230 (-11), Harris - 276 (-16), Toss Up - 32 (+16)
Real Clear Politics
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)
Real Clear Politics - No Tossups
Trump -265 (-3), Harris - 273 (+3), Toss Up - 0
2024 Consensus
Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)
Polling Map
Trump -148 (-70), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 180 (+70)
Sabatos Crystal Ball
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)
Cook Political Report
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)
Fox News
Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)
Elections Daily
Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)
538 Model
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 236 (-15), Toss Up - 83 (+15)
JHK Forecasts
Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)
Polymarket Odds
Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)
The big drop in Trump votes in the polling map comes from Texas and Florida going to undecided but I don't believe that for one second.
Everything else shows a tightening race. Looks like Harris' honeymoon period is over and things are setting back down. The debate is scheduled for September 10th and might be the deciding factor. I suppose we shall see what we shall see.
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