Well, it's Saturday (I missed Friday) so time to capture the current numbers.
Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.
Electoral Vote
Trump -235 (-26), Harris - 276 (-1), Toss Up - 27 (+27)
Real Clear Politics
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 225 (+17), Toss Up - 94 (-17)
Real Clear Politics - No Tossups
Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)
2024 Consensus
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)
Polling Map
Trump -182 (-6), Harris - 226 (+3), Toss Up - 130 (+3)
Sabatos Crystal Ball
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)
Cook Political Report
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)
Fox News
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)
Elections Daily
Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)
538 Model
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (+15), Toss Up - 68 (-15)
JHK Forecasts
Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 241 (+15), Toss Up - 78 (+28)
Polymarket Odds
Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (-6)
I still can't make heads or tails out of this. It could go either way. If I had to bet today I would bet on Trump for three reasons.
(1) Republican voters appear unphased by Trump's increasingly bizarre antics. If Jesus Christ himself were to endorse Harris I suspect they would still vote for the guy with the (R) next to his name.
(2) Trump tends to outperform his polling numbers. We might be looking at a sort of "Trump Effect" where people are embarrassed to admit they're voting for him or are jerking around the pollsters.
(3) I have this suspicion that at the last minute some people are going to balk at voting for a woman.
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