More Thoughts on the 2024 Election

This sounds more and more like 2016 again. The momentum for Trump is definitely there just like it was there in 2016. I check the data on a weekly basis and the shift to Trump has been very clear. 

I was at the early voting site yesterday and the number of voters made it complete chaos. But I saw very few young voters. That's bad. Older voters were out in force and younger voters were no where to be seen.

The voter turnout in 2020 was 66% of voting eligible population (63% of voting age population) and it will probably be about that again. The states that depress voter turnout numbers are actually the red states which rarely get above 60%. This is possibly because red states make it harder to vote. 

Blue states have much higher turnout which is probably why the Democrat candidate wins the popular vote even though they lose the electoral vote. 

The REAL problem though is that 72% of people over 65 vote but only 48% of those between 18 and 24 vote. I'm 76 so trust me on this, if you're young and just starting out building a career and a family you DO NOT want my age group making decisions for you.

So Trump wins and the Republicans probably hold the House and take the Senate. How much damage can they do? They didn't do a lot last time because they're not only bat shit crazy but incompetent. Things that I do expect to happen are:

(1) Trump's 2017 tax cuts will be extended if not made permanent.

(2) We'll get another corporate tax cut and may get another tax cut across the board. If we do then it will drive the debt through the roof because tax cuts never pay for themselves.

(3) As laid out in Project 2025 they resurrect Schedule F which will allow the replacement of many, possibly thousands, of civil servants with political appointees. This will be the most dangerous thing to happen because it removes lots of sanity checks.

(4) Ukraine is probably going to see US support dry up but other countries may step in to fill the void. Hopefully that war will end before too much more damage occurs.

(5) Israel will probably get more support. There may or may not be a crack down on the crazies claiming to be pro-Palestine when they have no idea of what the real issues are in the Middle East.

(6) The GOP will try and fail to get national abortion restrictions enacted but it will be a messy fight.

(7) Religion, especially conservative Protestantism, will get a boost in influence. How long this will last is unclear.

(8) LGBTQ, and especially trans, rights will take some hits. At the very least trans women probably won't be competing in woman's sports any more.

It's going to be an uncomfortable four years but I doubt we'll turn into Nazi Germany.

Early Voting and a Karen in the Wild

Yesterday my oldest daughter was in town. She was driving a borrowed Jeep truck with Texas dealer plates that she had taken from work for a road trip to Virginia. While she was here she decided that she would go to early voting in town. I went with her, not to vote, but just to take a ride in the Jeep truck.

I'm not sure what I expected but not what we found. There were seven places in the county open for early voting and one was in our town community center. Now it was Saturday and I'm sure that had an effect. It was chaos.

There was a line of cars waiting to get into the parking lot which was not only full but had cars parked in illegal spots and others looking for a spot like the mall at Christmas time. To say that the parking area was inadequate would be a gross understatement.

My daughter was a bit nervous about maneuvering the Jeep truck in the tight quarters because she hadn't had the need to do that before.

While we were waiting to get into the lot a woman, complete with a bleached blonde Karen haircut, got out of an Audi in front of us. I didn't think much of it at the time. I figured she was getting out to go vote on foot. Little did I know that this was going to be my first encounter with a Karen in her natural habitat.

We followed the Audi down a row of parked cars in the lot. There were maybe fifteen cars on either side plus a row of cars parked head in at the top of the row with a narrow lane, one car wide, separating the cars at the top of the row from the cars on either side.

The Audi had come to a complete stop, the Karen was standing in a parking space on the top row and another car was in the lane trying to turn into the space. That's when it dawned on me that this woman had gone on foot in search of a parking space to reserve for the Audi. 

We were stuck. The Audi was in front of us and another car was behind us. My daughter got out to see what the hold up was.

The hold up was the Karen was refusing to move out of the space and the woman trying to turn into the space wasn't about to give it up. My daughter, naive child, asked if there was a problem because everyone was stuck. The woman in the car said "there wouldn't be any problem if this one would more her fat ass."

At that my daughter said "I don't need this" and beat a hasty retreat back to the Jeep.

At that point the laughing gods decided they had enough amusement for the day and the following occurred.

(1) The driver of the Audi realized someone was trying to get out from a space on the left so he backed up to let the car back out and then took that space.

(2) The Karen, seeing the Audi get a space, surrendered her prize.

(3) The car in the lane took the space that the Karen was trying to save for the Audi.

(4) A car in the top row also left allowing my daughter to simply drive straight into that spot with no awkward maneuvering required.

Sometimes the gods work in mysterious ways.

There was about an hour wait to vote and my daughter's initial reaction was to leave and come back but I convinced her to get it over with give the lucky break with the spot, because I didn't want to anger the fickle gods by spurning their gift, and she had no idea what it would be like later.

I waited outside with my cane and made lots of new friends. I even saw my dentist but he didn't see me. Since this was Northern New Jersey even with the craziness in the parking lot people just laughed it off. Except for the Karen and the woman she was blocking.

It was pretty crazy. I think the craziness was due to there only being a few early voting spots in the county. The rest of us are planning on going Election Day when each town will have its traditional polling place open. But we're planning on going early just in case.

The 2024 Election, October 27, 2024

OK, I got lazy or depressed or both this week. I'm two days late with this but things haven't changed much.

Electoral Vote

Trump -278 (+22), Harris - 241 (-10), Toss Up - 19 (-12)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -312 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -219 (+1), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (-1)

538 Model

Trump -262 (+16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-27)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-16)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -312 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

If anything the election has shifted more in Trump's direction. Electoral Vote now has him winning with 278 electoral votes.

Godel's Ontological Argument

 All of the ontological arguments are basically word salads attempting to trick the listener into accepting the argument. That makes them about the most dishonest arguments as well. 

As for Godel, his Axioms are a big problem. First of all he never defines what he means by "positive." Some who defend his argument sometimes claim that this doesn't matter but most people disagree. Something that is so central to the argument has to be defined. 

Axiom 1: If property A is positive, and if property A entails property B, then B is positive. 

Why? Does there never exist a trade-off where one "positive" property requires the acceptance of a "negative" one? How about a military tank with light armor which allows it to move quickly but makes it vulnerable to armor piercing shells? 

Axiom 2: If property A is positive, then the property not-A is not positive. So is the property "Red" "positive?" Some people would say so (especially given that Godel never defines "positive), does that make "non-Red" not positive? Or are the property of "Red" and "non-Red" simply neutral? How do we tell if properties are "positive" or simply neutral. 

Axiom 3: The property G is a positive property. (G is the property of being "God-like"; an object with property G has all positive properties) 

This is total gibberish. Define "God-like" and why must someone with this property have all "positive" properties? Is jealousy a positive property? What about vengefulness? 

Axiom 4: If a property is positive, then it is positive in all possible worlds. 

Why? There are probably possible worlds where the property of being a Nazi is considered positive because the Germans won WW II while in most worlds the property of being not-Nazi is positive.

Axiom 5: Necessary existence is a positive property. 

Again, define "necessary existence" and demonstrate that it must be "positive" whatever the hell positive may be.

The 2024 Election, October 18,. 2024

 Well it's Friday and time to get depressed.

Electoral Vote

Trump -256 (+10), Harris - 251 (+4), Toss Up - 31 (-14)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -312 (+10), Harris - 226 (-10), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 94 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -246 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 66 (-27)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -246 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 66 (-27)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -312 (+16), Harris - 226 (-16), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Like I said last week,  I don't even see this being close unless something drastic happens in the next couple of weeks or somehow the polls are all seriously wrong for some reason.

Why Calories Count

I have run into a lot of nonsense recently claiming that calories don't matter in weight management for various reasons. As an engineer I disagree.

A calorie is by definition a unit of energy. A food calorie is actually a kilocalorie and equivalent to the heat energy needed to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water by 1 °C. 

Every food item contains energy locked away in chemical bonds. That energy is measured in calories. Once the food is ingested it is metabolized by the body to release the stored energy. Cells then capture and use this energy to fuel normal bodily functions. 

The reason you can't consume wood and coal, as one individual claimed should be possible if calories mattered, is the body can't metabolize wood and coal. 

The first law of thermodynamics states that when energy passes into or out of a system the system's internal energy changes in accordance with the law of conservation of energy. 

In other words if you ingest 2000 calories then your body just gained 2000 calories of energy. The body either uses the energy, expels it as waste or stores it. 

About 10% is expelled as waste and the rest is either used or stored as fat or muscle. It will usually only be muscle if your diet is high in protein and you're engaging in resistance training. For most people excess calories are stored as fat. 

If you consume fewer calories than the body needs then it will literally begin to consume itself to make up the difference. Typically it will first consume stored fat and then muscle. 

That's how it works. Everything else simply changes the rate at which a body consumes energy or affects the body's ability to metabolize and release the energy in the food consumed.

Medical Issues, October 11, 2024

So, I've been going to physical therapy for three weeks and it's not high on my lists of things I like to do. Interestingly enough my left knee is giving me more trouble than my broken ankle. The ankle doctor said my right leg would again be my good leg and I think I'm already there. I have two more weeks, four days, of therapy scheduled.

Wearing the brace is much, much better than the boot even though getting in and out of it is a bit of a pain. Still, at least I don't feel wobbly like I did with the boot. I now use a cane rather than the walker except when I'm on the tiles in the play room.

Monday I go for the CT scan and I get the results, and find out what new horrors I'll have to endure, on the 29th. I see the ankle doctor on the 31st. Hopefully I can then dump the physical therapy and the brace.

After we get the right ankle patched up I'll have to decide what do do about the left knee.

The way things are going I might have to start searching for a bridge that I can jump off of.

The 2024 Election, October 11, 2024

I've cut the number of sites again to just the ones that seem to regularly update. Besides, I'm becoming convinced that, unless something drastic happens in the next couple of weeks, that Trump is going to easily win this election. I suspect the media is artificially trying to maintain interest by continuing to say how close things are. I don't think they're that close.

Electoral Vote

Trump -246 (-16), Harris - 247 (-29), Toss Up - 45 (+45)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -302 (+21), Harris - 236 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (+30), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 94 (-30)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (-25), Toss Up - 93 (+25)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (-6), Toss Up - 93 (+6)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -296 (+15), Harris - 242 (-15), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Again we have a shift towards Trump who clearly has all of the momentum. Add to this that I have always suspected that he will outperform the polls and it tells me that, unless a disaster occurs, Trump will win easily.

The 2024 Election, October 4, 2024

Well, it's Friday so time to capture the current numbers.

Same rules, sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (-10), Toss Up - 104 (+10)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -281 (+19), Harris - 257 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -188 (+6), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 124 (-6)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (+10), Toss Up - 68 (-10)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 232 (-9), Toss Up - 87 (+52)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -281 (+19), Harris - 257 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Another good week for Trump who clearly appears to have the momentum. 

The 2024 Election, September 27, 2024

 Well, it's Friday so time to capture the current numbers.

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -262 (+26), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (-10), Toss Up - 104 (+10)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -182 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 130 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (-10), Toss Up - 78 (+10)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+43), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 35 (-43)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-6)

Overall a slightly better week for Trump. But it looks like everyone is as unsure as I am about this thing. You can read article from pundits declaring everything from a Trump landslide to a Harris landslide.

I still take the position that Trump wins unless the numbers begin to change dramatically and I don't think that's going to happen.

The 2024 Election, September 21, 2024

Well, it's Saturday (I missed Friday) so time to capture the current numbers.

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -235 (-26), Harris - 276 (-1), Toss Up - 27 (+27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 225 (+17), Toss Up - 94 (-17)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -182 (-6), Harris - 226 (+3), Toss Up - 130 (+3)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (+15), Toss Up - 68 (-15)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 241 (+15), Toss Up - 78 (+28)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (-6)

I still can't make heads or tails out of this. It could go either way. If I had to bet today I would bet on Trump for three reasons.

(1) Republican voters appear unphased by Trump's increasingly bizarre antics. If Jesus Christ himself were to endorse Harris I suspect they would still vote for the guy with the (R) next to his name.

(2) Trump tends to outperform his polling numbers. We might be looking at a sort of "Trump Effect" where people are embarrassed to admit they're voting for him or are jerking around the pollsters.

(3) I have this suspicion that at the last minute some people are going to balk at voting for a woman.

Medical Issues, September 19th, 2024

 I went back to the orthopedist to see about my broken ankle. I've been wearing this boot on my right ankle and I'd like to strangle the guy that designed it. It's curved front to back and side to side which makes me wobble. I keep feeling like I'm to fall and break my neck.

Going up stairs is OK but coming down I feel like I'm going to go flying because the damn boot is too big for the step.

My big hope was that I could dump the boot and I can, sort of. He told me to get an ankle brace but with no recommendations. Just go to Walgreens he says. 

Well finding an ankle brace turned out to be a little tricky. The one I got at Walgreens didn't work out so I ended up ordering one from Amazon (all hail Amazon, the god of buying stuff). It will be here tomorrow so I have to suffer one more day with the boot.

I also have to wear it when I go out.

But the big crushing blow was him saying that I need to go to physical therapy two or three times a week for 6-8 weeks in order to get my balance back!!!

Get my balance back? My balance would be fine if I wasn't wearing this damn boot.

I also canceled my knee surgery. I can't take the chance of having neither leg useable. So that at least got rid of four appointments. I get to see ankle guy in six weeks. 

The nasty appointment of course is getting the results of the lung CT from the thoracic surgeon. The scan is October 14th and I get the results on October 29th. That's two days before I see the ankle guy again.

The 2024 Election, September 13, 2024

Well, it's Friday again and the debate is over. 

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -261 (+31), Harris - 277 (+1), Toss Up - 0 (-32)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -281 (+16), Harris - 257 (-16), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -188 (+40), Harris - 223 (+13), Toss Up - 127 (-53)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (-32), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (+32)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 236 (NC), Toss Up - 83 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-27)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -281 (-6), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 6 (+6)

Given these numbers one would think that Trump won the debate. Clearly raking Trump over the coals did little or no good for Harris.

The Debate

Well, the debate is over and Harris pretty much made Trump look like a bumbling, incoherent fool.

Just to add to the chaos the ABC hosts fact checked him in real time about his claims of post-birth infanticide and migrants eating pets in Springfield Ohio. 

Trump spewed lie after lie after lie but this time looked mostly like a fool while doing it. His "barbs" bounced off Harris like she was wearing plate armor.

It was delicious.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure that it's going to make much difference.

Trump's voting block is solid and what sane people recognized as bald faced lies Trump voters were probably cheering on as "telling it like it is."

The most we can hope for is the debate will stunt Trump's recent momentum and hopefully reverse it but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

The 2024 Election, September 6, 2024

 Another Friday and another update. The big story recently has been that Nat Silver has declared that Trump has a 58% chance of winning to Harris' 41%. All of the ring wing news outlets have been running hard with this story. Personally, I'm not that impressed with Silver's model.

Again sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -230 (-11), Harris - 276 (-16), Toss Up - 32 (+16)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -265 (-3), Harris - 273 (+3), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)

Polling Map

Trump -148 (-70), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 180 (+70)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 236 (-15), Toss Up - 83 (+15)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

The big drop in Trump votes in the polling map comes from Texas and Florida going to undecided but I don't believe that for one second.

Everything else shows a tightening race. Looks like Harris' honeymoon period is over and things are setting back down. The debate is scheduled for September 10th and might be the deciding factor. I suppose we shall see what we shall see.

Medical Issues, August 31st, 2024

Getting old sucks.

The fractured right ankle has added to my other physical woes of a shot left knee and the constant lung monitoring.

I had planned to finally get the knee attended to in December but the ankle has led me to wonder if I really want to go through this sort of thing again. I'm leaning toward canceling the knee replacement but my wife won't be happy about that.

My next lung checkup is in October. Hopefully the ankle will be better by then but bad news in the lung checkup might impact the scheduled repair even if I decide to go through with it.

I spend way too much time in doctor's offices. Let's look at the current schedule coming up.

September 5th, Pulmonologist, checkup.

September 13th, Dentist, cleaning.

September 16th week, Orthopedist, ankle checkup

October 14th, CT Scan, lungs.

October 29th, Thoracic Surgeon, results of CT Scan (this is the big one)

November 12th, Orthopedic Nurse, Knee Surgery pre-op

November 14th, Cardiologist, checkup and knee surgery clearance

November 18th, Pulmonologist, knee surgery clearance

November 19th, Primary Care, knee surgery clearance.

December 5th, Orthopedist, Knee Surgery

December 6th, Orthopedist, release from hospital

December 18th, Orthopedic PA, post knee surgery check-up 

January 6th, Eye Doctor, checkup

January 15th, Orthopedist, knee surgery checkup

Damn Ankle

It's been a week since I fractured my right ankle and I can say, unequivocally, that this SUCKS!

I hurt it last Saturday but optimistically decided it was just a strain. But walking to the bathroom and especially going up and down steps were kind of painful. I started using a walker to limit the weight on the ankle.

On Sunday I found it hard to get down the stairs and the ankle looked swollen and black and blue so I gave in and went to the spiffy new Valley Hospital Emergence Room.

I'm spending way too much fucking time at this hospital.

They discovered that it was fractured, wrapped the thing up in a splint and told me to confer with a orthopedist at good old Ridgewood Orthopedics. They gave me crutches but said that I could use a walker as well. The walker felt more secure so I've been using that.

I managed to get an appointment at Ridgewood Orthopedics for late Wednesday.

The doctor verified that it was fractured, but shouldn't require surgery (that was REALLY good), and had his assistant set me up with a walking boot.

Let's talk about this boot. First, the thing in big, clunky, plastic and annoying. It's big on Velcro which is used to both wrap the padding in place and on the three straps which holds the plastic cover in place.

OK, so far so good. What I want to know is who is the idiot that decided that rounding the sole of the boot was a good idea. Bad enough that it's hard, and slippery, plastic but the rounded bottom makes it feel like I'm constantly wobbling.

I take it off when I go to bed so I got a urinal to pee in so I don't have to put the damn thing on every time I need to use the facilities.

The doctor told me to get external lifts to fit on my left sneaker to even out the height. I managed to get them the next morning from Amazon and they are designed right. The have a ridged rubber sole which provides secure footing.

So now my bad left leg with the mangled knee has become the leg I need to rely upon. Obviously I spend a lot of time sitting on my rear end. I was told to lay off exercise for at least a weak and then to take it slow and easy.

I was told to come back in three weeks but the girl at checkout couldn't find an opening and said they would get back to me. I haven't heard from them yet so a call to them on Monday is on my agenda.

The 2024 Election, August 30, 2024

Well, it's Friday again. The DNC is over and RFK Jr. has dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump. There is some whispering in the back alleys that Trump may dump Vance for RFK but I don't think that's going to happen.

Harris and Walz gave a joint interview on CNN last night and the reactions have been lukewarm at best. Harris may have made the interview controversial by trying to be uncontroversial. Obviously any impact of that interview won't be in this week's numbers.

Again sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -230 (-11), Harris - 292 (+30), Toss Up - 16 (-19)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -268 (-19), Harris - 270 (+19), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (NC), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 110 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 68 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -235 (-16), Harris - 226 (-15), Toss Up - 77 (+31)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Only one site now has Trump with enough electoral votes to win the election and five others have him leading. The biggest impacts have been Real Clear Politics moving Pennsylvania from Trump to Harris in its No Tossups Map and many places making North Carolina a tossup.

Two sites now have Harris with enough votes to win the election and four have her leading.

What are Harris' Policies?

Republicans and their supporters on the right keep asking what Kamala Harris' policies are?

Honestly, I'm not sure I care what her policies are. Congress passes laws and the budget so the president should be little more than the main suggester and critic. 

Unfortunately Executive Orders have become a way for the president to legislate. This isn't a new development. It has been the case since around the time of Theodore Roosevelt who issued 1,081 Executive orders which was more than the first 25 presidents issued combined. But the king of Executive Orders was Franklyn Roosevelt who issued 3,721. But at least he the excuse of s depression and a world war.

Things haven't been that crazy recently but presidents tend to issue between 200 and 400 Executive Orders during their tenure.

I didn't think much of Harris' economic plan and I'm leery of the idea of taxing unrealized capitol gains. I'm opposed to any consideration or reparations which I know that she at least wants to investigate.

I'm sure she's for a nationwide abortion protection, tax reform, improving the Social Security outlook and improved healthcare. I can probably get behind those although as usual the devil is in the details.

So we agree on some things and disagree on others which is what I would expect. The only way I could agree with a candidate on everything would be if the candidate was me.

The 2024 Election, August 23, 2024

I've noticed that some of these sites I've selected to track just aren't updating as often as I thought. I will mark sites that haven't updated in italics. I've also added four sites, Polling Map, Sabatos Crystal Ball, JHK Forecasts and Polymarket Odds, that have updated. I dropped Inside Elections because it hasn't updated since May.

Electoral Vote

Trump -241 (NC), Harris - 262 (-19), Toss Up - 35 (+19)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (NC), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 110 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (-33), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77

538 Model

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 68 (+18)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

There are now 12 prediction sites listed. Two have Trump with enough electoral votes to win the election and seven others have him leading. None have Harris with enough votes which is a change from last week and three have her leading.

The 2024 Election, August 16, 2024

Here's what the election prediction sites are saying.

Electoral Vote

Trump -241 (-29), Harris - 281 (+24), Toss Up - 16 (+5)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Inside Elections

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (-33), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77

538 Model

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (NC)

Not really a lot of changes. The only major movement was in Electoral Vote which is outweighed by little or no movement anywhere else.

10 Hurtful Things White People do to Their Black Colleagues Without Realizing it!?

This is a reaction to a gallery entitled "10 hurtful things white people do to their black colleagues without realizing it" (sic). Hey, I'm not the one that left out the capitals. As a general observation most of these things are actions of omission. I'm not sure how anyone could categorize an action of omission as "hurtful." At worst it's typically neutral.

1) Lack of Frank Feedback If I ever gave some black people constructive criticism I would immediately be labeled a racist. So why bother? 

 2) Failing to Advocate

It's not my job to "advocate" for someone else. Stand up for yourself. 

3) Exclusion from Social Events 

In my work experience external work events are open to all unless it's a private affair. In that case it's up to the individual to decide who they want to invite. 

4) Lack of Engagement on Issues Affecting the Black Community

The issues of the black community are not my problem. I have enough of my own problems to worry about. 

5) Disinterest in Learning About Black Culture

I've read "The Three Musketeers" and "The Count of Monte Cristo." Does that count? Or are you talking about only American black culture? What you probably mean by "black culture" I find questionable if not downright warped.

6) Not Showing Up (when invited to an event by black people)

Who people decide to spend their leisure time with is up to them. I'm not sure why anyone would think there is some sort of obligation to accept invitations. 

7) Gossip and Stereotyping

I'm an engineer. We don't really gossip unless it's about mathematical errors or dumb ideas. I suppose if this was something that occurred in a work environment I could see how it would be annoying.

8) Ignoring Microaggressions 

The whole micro transgression concept is a lot of nonsense and does an incredible amount of harm. If you really have a problem with what you call a "micro aggression" call people on it when they do it because they probably don't realize that it's a problem. I wouldn't expect anyone else to do it for you.

9) Tokenism

So we should shut down DEI and Affirmative Action initiatives? I'm all for that. 

10) Inconsistent Support for Racial Justice (including supporting "black businesses" and fighting "systemic racism")

Like I said in #4, I have my own problems to worry about. You need to stand up for yourself. What I won't do is stand in your way. I will only support "black owned businesses" if they are best provider of the products or services that I need. I'm not convinced that "systemic racism" is actually a thing. It strikes me as a convenient scapegoat when looking into the real reasons for something is too expensive or likely to yield an answer that people don't like. If you're pushing for "equity" rather than "equality," then you will find me in the opposition because "equity" is not a rational goal. 

 

The 2024 Election August 9, 2024

Here's what the election prediction sites are saying.

Electoral Vote

Trump -270, Harris - 257, Toss Up - 11

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219, Harris - 208, Toss Up - 111

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287, Harris - 251, Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -235, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 77

Cook Political Report

Trump -235, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 77

Inside Elections

Trump -235, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 77

Fox News

Trump -251, Harris - 241, Toss Up - 46

Elections Daily

Trump -268, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 44

538 Model

Trump -262, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 50

Clearly this is still Trump's election to lose. He leads in every model and in two has the 270 required electoral votes or more. RCP with no tossups has Trump winning handily with 287 electoral votes.

Harris Picks Tim Walz

Harris went with Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her VP choice. Walz may look like everyone's grandpa but he packs a wallop and is not afraid to get in the trenches. He's going to make the perfect pit bull for Harris.

Momentum and enthusiasm have come along with Harris but she still has a long way to go.

Trump's base is very hard to shake and the Democratic Party coalition is still very fragile. It's going to be a tough one.

So What do I Think?

I think Biden was right to drop out. Harris may have her own baggage to contend with but I think she can stir up the base better than Biden could.

A big issue will be the choice of running mate and hopefully the Democrats won't make a really big mistake in the choice. Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania would be my guess.

Biden Drops Out

Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination.

Let the games begin!

Trump Chooses JD Vance for VP

Trump has selected JD Vance, the junior senator from Ohio as his VP choice.

Oh good lord. The only good thing that I can say about Vance is that he's an ex-marine.

He's opposed to abortion even in cases of rape or incest. He explains his opposition as that "two wrongs don't make a right."

He supports a nationwide ban on abortions after 15 weeks and opposes same sex marriage.

He's a converted Catholic. He's opposed to supporting Ukraine but in favor of supporting Israel. So he's 50% correct there.

He's also young at only 39 years old which means he could be a major player for a long time. He has a JD from Yale so he's not stupid and that could be a real problem.

Trump could have made a worse choice but this one isn't all that great.

Documents Case Dismissed

Judge Eileen Cannon has dismissed the documents case against Donald Trump.

The rationale is that Special Prosecutor Jack Smith wasn't properly appointed because he wasn't approved by Congress and his budget wasn't specifically authorized by Congress.

This is an argument that has been made and rejected many times in the past. It's nonsense. The DOJ has a budget authorized by Congress and has always been able to use that budget for special prosecutors.

Think how difficult it would be to appoint a special prosecutor if every time they had to be approved by Congress and have a specific budget allocated by Congress?

I wonder how many people in prison thanks to special prosecutors can now challenge their convictions?

Trump's wins over the last couple of weeks almost make me believe there's a devil and Trump has made a deal with him. This is a federal case. If Trump wins the election, which looks almost certain, he can pardon himself. Our "justice" system really is a joke.

Someone Shot at Trump

Shots were apparently fired at Donald Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania. He appeared to be OK as secret service agents rushed him off stage.

The Price of Taco Shells

We eat a fair amount of soft Taco shells. I use them for sandwiches and we do have Tacos from time to time. During the pandemic I started buying them from Amazon in 12 packs of ten Taco shells. 

May 13th, 2020 - $20.88

June 30th, 2020 - $20.88

August 19th, 2020 - $27.49

September 23rd, 2020 -$21.00

November 13th, 2020 - $21.00

December 19th, 2020 - $21.00

March 12th, 2021 - $20.88

May 23rd, 2021 - $21.00

September 5th, 2021 - $26.03

November 9th, 2021 - $27.66

March 21st, 2022 - $29.51

July 10th, 2022 - $22.99

October 5th, 2022 - $26.88

February 20th, 2023 - $26.88

June 24th, 2023 - $29.28

January 8th, 2024 - $29.88

July 5th, 2024 - $33.99

However this was the first time I found other options. There was a 6 pack of 10 and a 5 pack of 6. The 6 pack of 10 at $15.99 actually turned out to be about 2 cents per Taco shell less expensive so that was the one I actually bought this time. The 5 pack of 6 was priced at $18.99 which was completely ridiculous.

What is Atheism?

Atheism can be EITHER a lack of belief in a god (weak atheism) or the position that there is no god (strong atheism). The position that that there is no god is a positive claim and carries a burden of proof. 

The lack of belief in a god is not a positive claim. The lack of belief that there is no god is a perfectly valid way to describe a weak theism. However religion DOES NOT position itself that way and neither do most theists. They make the positive claim that a god exists. Atheists simply reject that claim. 

No, a burden does not attach to the rejection of a claim. Consider a criminal trial. The positive claim by the prosecution is that the defendant committed a crime. It has the burden of proof to demonstrate that claim. The defense rejects the claim. The defense DOES NOT have to demonstrate that the defendant is innocent but simply that the prosecution has not met its burden of proof. 

Atheists find god not guilty of existing. 

This is basic epistemology 101. The person making the positive claim has the burden of proof. Those rejecting the claim need only show why the evidence is insufficient to justify belief. You can apply this to fairies, unicorns, leprechauns and big foot. I reject the claim that these things exist. By doing so I don't acquire a burden of proof to show that they don't.

Supreme Court Immunity Decision

The Supreme Court has ruled that a president has immunity from subsequent prosecution for the execution of official actions while in office.

The media, and others, are treating this like it's a shock. If you think about it then it makes a lot of sense. The key here is "official actions." 

Let me make this simple. If it's illegal then it's by definition not an official action.

Results of the First Debate

Ouch, Biden got absolutely torched.

Trump was strong and confident while Biden came across as a befuddled old man with a raspy voice.

It must be nice not to have to worry about the truth because Trump didn't seem to worry as he told whopper after whopper. No, there aren't such things as post birth abortions. It was New York state that prosecuted him. The DOJ had nothing to do with it and there is no evidence that the judge is corrupt as he claimed. I could go on but that's enough.

But the lies don't matter because presentation is everything. Given the polls and the disaster last night, without some sort of miracle, I don't see how Trump doesn't win come November.

The First Debate

Biden and Trump are scheduled to debate tomorrow evening and I have no idea what to expect. I'm also probably not going to watch the thing live. I'll catch the highlights on video later.

The media is simpleminded. So my primary concern is that Biden makes some sort of minor, but easily understandable error, which the media plays up all out of proportion. In the meantime, Trump is so incoherent that the media is incapable of unraveling what he says and basically gives him a pass.

Well, maybe not. More likely is that Trump will spew an unending stream of lies and misinformation that the media will ignore but harp on any and all errors, no matter how small, that Biden makes.

Lung Issues - June 6th, 2024

My thyroid is fine. The numbers were right down the middle.

Apparently my aortic and iliac aneurisms are fine as well. I had my yearly ultrasound and the stents are doing their job. They haven't gotten any bigger and there are no leaks. (leaks? WTF?)  

Who Owns Palestine?

People keep talking about Palestine as Arab land. Even I have used that term when discussing the refusal to accept the UN partition plan.

But what is the legal basis for that claim? I never thought about it in those terms. I simply figured that the Arabs lived there so they considered it their land. However it turns out there is a legal basis for the Arab claim that Palestine is an Arab state or should be an Arab state.

Of course it's the fault of the British.

During World War I the British made multiple agreements with different parties about the land controlled by the Ottoman Empire. 

One of these agreements was in a series of letters between Sharif Husayn of Mecca and Sir Henry McMahon in which agreement was reached about Arab aid against the Ottoman Empire in exchange for British recognition of an independent Arab state.

In a letter dated July 14th, 1915 Sharif Husayn laid out the Arab conditions including the anticipated boundaries of the Arab state.

"Firstly.- England will acknowledge the independence of the Arab countries, bounded on the north by Mersina and Adana up to the 37th degree of latitude, on which degree fall Birijik, Urfa, Mardin, Midiat, Jezirat (Ibn 'Umar), Amadia, up to the border of Persia; on the east by the borders of Persia up to the Gulf of Basra; on the south by the Indian Ocean, with the exception of the position of Aden to remain as it is; on the west by the Red Sea, the Mediterranean Sea up to Mersina. England to approve the proclamation of an Arab Khalifate of Islam."

In a letter dated August 30th, 1915, McMahon responded: "With regard to the questions of limits and boundaries, it would appear to be premature to consume our time in discussing such details in the heat of war..."

Sharif Husayn expressed his disappointment with this response in a letter dated September 9th, 1915:

"Nevertheless, your Excellency will pardon me and permit me to say clearly that the coolness and hesitation which you have displayed in the question of the limits and boundaries... might be taken to infer an estrangement or something of the sort."

McMahon in a letter dated October 24th, 1915 moved to alleviate Sharif Husayn's concerns.

"I regret that you should have received from my last letter the impression that I regarded the question of the limits and boundaries with coldness and hesitation; such was not the case, but it appeared to me that the time had not yet come when that question could be discussed in a conclusive manner. 

I have realised, however, from your last letter that you regard this question as one of vital and urgent importance. I have, therefore, lost no time in informing the Government of Great Britain of the contents of your letter, and it is with great pleasure that I communicate to you on their behalf the following statement, which I am confident you will receive with satisfaction:- 

The two districts of Mersina and Alexandretta and portions of Syria lying to the west of the districts of Damascus, Homs, Hama and Aleppo cannot be said to be purely Arab, and should be excluded from the limits demanded."

"With the above modification, and without prejudice of our existing treaties with Arab chiefs, we accept those limits."

The British took the position that this excluded Palestine from the agreed upon boundaries and the Palestinian Arabs claimed that it did not. Talks intended to resolve the differences failed and in the White Paper of 1939 Britain stated:

"In the recent discussions the Arab delegations have repeated the contention that Palestine was included within the area in which Sir Henry McMahon, on behalf of the British Government, in October, 1915, undertook to recognise and support Arab independence...His Majesty's Government regret the misunderstandings which have arisen as regards some of the phrases used. For their part they can only adhere...to the view that the whole of Palestine west of Jordan was excluded from Sir Henry McMahon's pledge, and they therefore cannot agree that the McMahon correspondence forms a just basis for the claim that Palestine should be converted into an Arab State."

In the same White Paper Britain rejects the idea of the whole of Palestine becoming a Jewish State.

"When it is asked what is meant by the development of the Jewish National Home in Palestine, it may be answered that it is not the imposition of a Jewish nationality upon the inhabitants of Palestine as a whole, but the further development of the existing Jewish community, with the assistance of Jews in other parts of the world, in order that it may become a centre in which the Jewish people as a whole may take, on grounds of religion and race, an interest and pride."

What the paper does suggest is a multi-national state with each group participating in the government in proportion to the size of the population.

"The independent State should be one in which Arabs and Jews share government in such a way as to ensure that the essential interests of each community are safeguarded."

This recommendation contradicted the conclusion of the 1937 Peel Commission that concluded that Palestine had two distinct societies with irreconcilable political demands, thus making it necessary to partition the land.

Racial Profiling?

We were coming home from a Giants' football game one night a few years ago. As we were passing through town there was a black dude with dreadlocks driving a beat up old Pinto pulled over. We have three police cars in town and two of them had this guy bracketed. My daughter looked over, shook her head and said "he had no chance." 

My town is 89% white and 10% Asian. The other 1% are mixed race or Hispanic. The police know every car that belongs in town. They can reel off what cars are expected to be parked at what houses. The other thing is that my town is basically a dead end. There is almost no reason to be there unless you're going there especially at night. 

So, racial profiling or not?

Stolen Palestinian Land

I just watched a video about Israeli settlements in the West Bank being on stolen Palestinian land. But I have a problem with this description.

How did this become stolen "Palestinian" land when the Palestinians never controlled it? 

- Prior to WW I the West Bank was part of the Ottoman Empire.

- From 1918 to 1922 all of Palestine was occupied by British troops. 

- From 1922 until 1948 it was under British control as part of the Mandate for Palestine. 

- In 1947 it was part of the proposed Arab State in the UN partition plan. However the Arabs rejected the plan and never took control of the West Bank. 

- After the 1948 war the West Bank was under Jordanian occupation and Jordan formally annexed it in 1950. 

- In 1967 Jordan, in keeping with its military pact with Egypt, attacked Israel. After bloody hand to hand fighting Israel captured the West Bank. 

- In 1988 Jordan relinquished any claims to the West Bank and recognized the PLO as the "sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian People." 

- In 1995, under the Oslo Agreement, the West Bank was divided into three zones as a transitional arrangement. Zone A under Palestinian control, Zone B under joint Palestinian and Israeli control and Zone C under Israeli control. The settlements are in Zone C. 

So the land upon which the settlements are built were never under Palestinian control. How does one steal something from someone who never owned it?

Trump Guilty on all 34 Counts in New York

Donald Trump has been found guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records at his trial in New York.

I have to admit that I'm really surprised by the verdict. I was expecting a hung jury or at best guilty on one or two counts and not guilty on the rest.

So, now what? These are E Felonies and it's my understanding that, especially with no previous convictions, that it's highly unlikely that Trump will get any jail time.

So does this really matter? Yes, I think it does. It emphasizes the point that no one is above the law even if I expect a sentence the equivalent of "now Donny, say three Hail Marys and promise never to do this again."

Lung Issues - May 17th, 2024

I got the results from the blood test and, surprise, I don't have Tuberculosis.

I suppose I should be happy that everything is negative but it makes you wonder.

In the meantime, I went back to the eye doctor and everything is terrific except that my right eye protrudes slightly. So she wants me to contact my PCD about a thyroid test.

It never ends. It never does.

Lung Issues - May 6th, 2024

So I saw the infectious disease lady doctor today. They did require masks in the office interestingly enough.

She said when they looked at the biopsy they detected a class of bacteria of which tuberculosis is a member so everyone immediately freaked out.

So, they did four pathology tests and all of them were negative for TB but they didn't send a sample to microbiology to do a culture. So that's what she wants me to do.

She doesn't think I have TB but a blood test and culture will settle it once and for all. So I need to make an appointment for a blood test.

It never ends. It never does.

The War in Gaza II

Pro-Hamas protestors are causing havoc on college campuses at mostly so-called elite college campuses.

The protests are asking the US to stop arming Israel, demanding a ceasefire and generally supporting the Palestinian cause. They're often also breaking laws which has gotten some reactions from police and campus officials.

There is more than a touch of anti-Semitism, anti-Americanism and youthful stupidity among the protestors.

On the one hand I sympathize with calls for ceasefire; war is never a good thing. On the other hand I wonder at the naivete being displayed.

Hamas still holds 100 hostages. They need to be returned either before, or as part of, any ceasefire agreement. That is the bare minimum. Then the shooting can stop and humanitarian supplies can flow into Gaza.

Before the ceasefire can be permanent I suspect Israel will want some way of insuring that this doesn't happen again in the future. This is the part that worries me.

I doubt these kids, or even the teachers that appeared to have brainwashed them, have any clue as to the actual history of the conflict. Most of the protestors don't even remember 9/11. They are supporting the same sort of terrorists that attacked the twin towers and have set off bombs in Europe and in Israel.

These are not good people and do not deserve your support.

Of course the response will be that they're not supporting terrorists but peace and providing the innocent, peaceful Palestinian people a land of their own. Or even restoring the country "back" to the Palestinians which is what "from the river to the sea" means.

Well, the Palestinians never "had" the land so they can't get it "back." The last owners were the Ottoman Empire if we ignore the British during Mandatory Palestine.

They are supporting terrorists. This artificial line between Hamas and the Palestinian Arabs in Gaza is nonsense. Hamas crossed the border in an unprovoked attack and murdered, kidnapped and raped innocent people.

This led to a declaration of war. Waging war in reprisal for an attack is not genocide. Is Israel breaking international law and committing war crimes by attacking civilian targets? That might be a valid charge but I don't know for certain. I know with certainty that Hamas violated the Geneva Convention but two wrongs generally don't make a right.

 The question of Israel breaking international law is, unfortunately, a lot more complicated than most people think and simply making accusations doesn't make it so. There are lots of exceptions in the Geneva Convention because combatants, especially in urban warfare, have a bad habit of being in civilian targets.

So it would take a while to sort this out assuming anyone ever bothers.

To my mind you can't attack someone, commit a bunch of atrocities, and then whine that the people you attacked aren't being nice to you.

Lung Issues - April 30, 2024

I got my biopsy results today and I do not have cancer. That's a good thing.

I didn't even get a chance to celebrate before Dr. Shapiro said but there's some inflammation in the lung, which explains everything we saw, but you might have a slight infection somewhere. So, I want you to see an infectious disease doctor.

WTF man? Another doctor? I get to see Shapiro again in six months.

He gave me a reference but when I called their office the doctor wasn't there and they said they couldn't make an appointment without talking to her. So I'm waiting for a return call.

Then I started thinking about this. The practice is called "Ridgewood Infectious Diseases." What kind of infectious diseases? Contagious infectious diseases? I'd rather not catch something when I go to their office.

 

A Wealth Tax

 I've see a number of progresses recently trying to resurrect the idea of a wealth tax.

The number of current OECD members that have collected revenue from net wealth taxes grew from eight in 1965 to a peak of 12 in 1996 to just five in 2020. In France the tax has been cut back to only real estate and in Spain if you live in Madrid you're exempt (I think I see a way of getting around it in Spain). 

Switzerland does the best with this sort of tax and it accounts for 5.12% of revenues. Among the five countries which have some sort of wealth tax revenues from the tax amount to only 1.5% of revenues.

The US generated $4.4 trillion in revenue in 2023. So if we did as well as Switzerland, and we probably won't, that would net about $225 billion. That's a nice chunk of change but only about 13% of the current budget deficit.

Then comes the question of Constitutionality. An honest appraisal of whether the Constitution would allow a wealth tax would probably revolve around whether it is a "direct" tax.

Article 1 Section 9 Clause 4 provides: “No Capitation, or other direct, Tax shall be laid, unless in Proportion to the Census or enumeration herein before directed to be taken.”

However, Article I Section 8 Clause 1 provides Congress’s general taxing power: “The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence [sic] and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States.”

The "uniform" requirement in Section 8 seems to conflict with the apportionment requirement in Section 9. 

But there is a difference between theory and practicality.

I see no way to get a wealth tax past this SCOTUS. We'd be much better off reforming the income tax tables and closing loopholes to shift the tax burden from the working class to the wealthy. We know with absolute certainly that would be Constitutional. Or at least I think we know that. With this SCOTUS you never know for sure.

Forty Plus Years of Inflation

Do young folks have it harder today? There is a lot of argument about that on the internet so I decided to let the numbers do the talking.

The median home price in Q2 1980 was $64,000. In Q2 2024 it was $414,500. Based upon inflation we would expect it to be $247,741. 

The average tuition cost for public universities in 1980 was $804. In 2022 it was $9,750. Based upon inflation we would expect it to be $2,840. 

The average tuition cost for private universities in 1980 was $3,617. In 2022 it was $35,248. Based upon inflation we would expect it to be $12,780. 

The median household income in 1980 was $26,430. In 2023 it was $80,610. Based upon inflation we would expect it to be $96,843. 

So home prices and tuition have outpaced inflation and median income has fallen short.

Those are the numbers. Life is DEFINITELY harder today.

Let's be honest, in addition the minefield was certainly less dense. I graduated college in 1969 from the City University of New York. It was tuition free and I lived with my parents and commuted until I graduated so no student debt. 

I had a $300 1961 Mercury Comet that my dad gave me so no car loan. He replaced the Comet with a $150 Ford Fairlane. 

There were no charge cards so no charge card debt. There was no internet, cable TV or cell phones so these expenses just didn't exist. 

Air fares were regulated so no one but the rich could afford to fly with any regularity so vacations were pretty much limited to where you could get to by car. With no internet there was no online shopping with all the potential pitfalls that come with that. 

Plus, every decent company provided good health insurance AND a real life pension.

So my question is, WTF happened? I thought technology was supposed to make things cheaper and better? 

Damnit - I Caught My Daughters Cold

OK, this is more than a little annoying. I have a low grade fever and I'm still choking up some congealed blood.

Lung Issues - April 23, 2024

Well, the biopsy is done.

Things didn't start out well. We pressed the 1R button in the elevator and we got an angry noise. OK, on to the steps. Two nice young guys held open the gate and the door for me. I never felt so old in my life.

I signed in at the desk and they sent up down one floor and along this looong hallway with the history of Valley Hospital along the wall to Diagnostic Imaging.

I made my presence known and, luckily, since I had already logged in online I had nothing to do but sit down. They had nice chairs, sturdy and wide. I could have gotten two of me in each of those chairs.

The took me inside about 15 minutes late, after I had dragged my sorry read end out of bed at 6:30 too, and put me in what looked like an Emergency Room room. 

I had to strip to the waist and lie down on the stretcher while they hooked me up to the monitors. Then the nurse says she's going to hook up an IV. I asked what was in the IV and she said nothing. It was just in case I passed out and had to medicate me.

THAT didn't do much for me but I decided to just let it go. My wife got a little chair in the corner which she swore wasn't nearly as comfortable, or sturdy, as the ones in the waiting area.

A few minutes later a doctor came in and gave me a summary of what he was going to do.

A few minutes after that they rolled me to the CT Scanner.

So the way things worked was they were taking pictures with the CT Scanner; I had my arms up over my head and the doctor was lining up his needle jab in the corner of my chest but not quite under my arm. They gave me a little local anesthetic and then the doctor did his thing. He asked me if I wanted something to relax me but I said no. He said that he didn't think I would but he had to ask. I suppose that's why they didn't want me to drive just in case I had taken the stuff.

It took about 20 minutes all told and I heard four clicks which, if I remember, means he took four samples.

After it was done he asked me if I felt like I needed to clear my throat and warned me there might be some blood when I did.

Holy shit was there blood. I never saw so much red. They gave me paper towels and a spit bag to deposit them it. Shit, there was a lot of blood. The doctor laughed and said, eh, I've seen worse."

That actually made me feel better. I am glad my wife didn't see this. It started to let up after a couple of minutes and they wheeled me back to the room. I spit up a bit more but very little once back in the room.

I got to lay there for about an hour and then they wheeled me down the hallway for a chest X-Ray.  A half hour after that they let me go.

They said six to seven days until the results are in which could be a minor problem since my office visit with Dr. Shapiro is in exactly a week.

If the results turn out to be not good, things will get ugly. But, there's nothing I can do about that now,

Lung Issues - April 22, 2024

The biopsy is tomorrow. The idea of dragging my rear end out of bed at 6:45 in order to get to the hospital by 7:45 or so really doesn't thrill me but you do but you have to do.

We went last Thursday to check out where the entrance to the new hospital building was and I never saw so many confused people. There's a parking garage attached and you go to 1R o get to the entrance,

Not the most obvious way to go but now we know. I assume people will get used to it as time goes by. Any new thing can be confusing I suppose but on the way out there were two poor woman that couldn't find their cars.

They could also really use some speed bumps in the garage. People were speeding through the place.

Anyway, I'm going to hit the sack early tonight and we shall see what we shall see.

Some Notes on Slavery

It's hard for us looking back to understand how complicated people found the issue of slavery. Even many that conceded the evil of the institution didn't think that an immediate across the board emancipation was going to work. 

Many were convinced that the freed slaves would have to be "expatriated" somewhere. 

Abraham Lincoln proposed shipping the ex-slaves to Central America, the Caribbean or Africa. On August 14, 1862, Lincoln met at the White House delegation of black leaders and proposed voluntary emigration of African Americans to countries outside the U.S. “Your race suffer from living among us, while ours suffer from your presence. It is better for us both, therefore, to be separated.” 

Stephen Douglas essentially told him he was nuts but Lincoln tried to establish a colony on the island of Île à Vache in Haiti anyway. 

It was an unmitigated disaster and Lincoln accepted that the freed slaves would have to be assimilated into white society.

When Was America Great?

I'm no fan of Trump and his followers. People have taken to asking his MAGA supporters, since they want to make America great AGAIN, when they think America was great?

I'd like to answer that question.

America was great when we looked to the future rather than living in the past. Slavery is over and 600,000 men paid in blood before it ended. 

 Jim Crow is over. Enough people put their heads together and did something about it. 

The past is the past. How about we recognize the problems of the present and try to address them? How about we worry about the drugs and the crime and the unwed mothers and the lack of affordable healthcare and the absent fathers and that children can't read and that people can't live on their salaries?

How are those for facts? 

I heard a black woman on the radio recently refer to the five little girls killed in the 16th Street Baptist Church bombing in 1963. Yes, that was a tragedy but what about the 1,300 teens and 276 children killed last year? 

We can't do anything about the past but we can do something about the current problems and the future. 

I'm 75 years old and I'm going to tell you that I've never seen a bigger group of fools than exists today. Every day I watch the rich and the media drive wedges between people to insure that we can't get together and make things better.

Iran Launches Strikes Against Israel

In retaliation for an Israeli air strike on Iran's consular offices in Syria Iran has launched 100-200 missile and drones at Israel.

Iran telegraphed the attack and launched mostly slow moving assets. Virtually all of the missiles and drones appear to have been shot down by Israeli, US and Jordanian forces.

The question is what happens next?

There are reports that an Iranian spokesman has said the the "matter can be considered concluded" unless there is more violence.

So far Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in the West Bank don't appear to have participated in the attack. Hamas, in Gaza, is pretty much in tatters already.

The ball may be in Israel's court. Hopefully they'll let the matter drop but I somehow doubt it.

What is a Woman?

The question "what is a woman" is tossed around by mostly right wing pundits as a sort of gotcha question.

The question "what is a woman" looks for a simple answer to what can be a complex situation. 

Let's start by asking if someone is talking about sex or gender when they ask the question? Sex and gender, despite many people using the terms interchangeably, are actually two different things. Sex is based upon physical characteristics such as chromosomes and genitalia. Gender defines the behavior and attitudes that society associates with a given sex.

The thing with gender is that it can vary from society to society and over time in any given society. Neither my mother nor my mother-in-law ever learned how to drive because that wasn't something that women did in their generation.

When people deviate from gender expectations we call that "gender non-conformity." Gender is something of a spectrum with man on one end, woman on the other end, and varying degrees of gender non-conformity in between. I suppose a "woman" on the gender spectrum would be someone who mostly exhibits behaviors and attitudes that society associates with the female sex.

A good example would be the fictional character Albert Goldman played by Nathan Hale in the movie "The Birdcage." Albert is a physical male but acts like the caricature of a female.

If the question refers to sex and not gender then I would say that it perhaps should be phrased as "what is a female" instead but let's go with "what is a woman" in reference to sex.

I can give an example. My wife is a woman but not every woman is my wife. I could say that a woman is someone with no Y chromosome but then where do people with Swyer Syndrome fit in?

Someone with Swyer syndrome has XY chromosomes but underdeveloped female sex organs. They don't produce ova but, if the uterus is reasonably developed, some can become pregnant with a donated egg or embryo and give birth.

I could say that a woman is someone with female genitalia but there are females with ambiguous or abnormal genitalia but they're still women. Some can even possibly become pregnant and give birth with donated eggs or embryos like those with Swyer Syndrome can.

You can't say that a woman is someone who can get pregnant and give birth because many women, due to age or physical issues, can't do that.

The problem really becomes that for any definition exceptions can be found. So the question doesn't have a simple answer.

Lung Issues - April 10, 2024

I had a collapsed lung in November of 2021 which stubbornly wouldn't reinflate. So they called in a thoracic surgeon to repair the lung. He saw a spot on the lung which he didn't like and took it out while he was in there.

The spot turned out to be cancerous and I've been going for regular CT Scans to monitor the situation. Yesterday I went to hear the surgeon's latest interpretation of the scan.

He's not happy with how one nodule, right near the one he removed two years ago, is acting and is sending me for a biopsy.

I have to get blood drawn tomorrow and then go for the biopsy on the 23rd. I see the surgeon again on the 30th to get the results.

It sounds like this biopsy is a bit of a big deal. I need to be at the brand new Valley Hospital at 8 AM. The instructions say they will give me a local anesthetic and then use a CT Scanner to stick a needle into the area of my lung in question. That should be fun.

The thing that really concerns me is they say there is a reasonable chance that the lung could collapse slightly, or not so slightly, and I really don't need to go through that again. Then I get monitored for a couple of hours I suppose just in case the lung collapses.

I'm not allowed to drive afterwards and I wonder why that's the case? So my wife has to go with me. I suppose we shall see what we shall see.

The War in Gaza

The war in Gaza continues and casualties are mounting especially among the Palestinian civilian population.

The Gaza Health Ministry claims 30,000 Palestinians have been killed but doesn't differentiate between combatants and civilians. Hamas admits to 6,000 fighters killed while the IDF claims 12,000. Either way, assuming the Health Ministry numbers are correct, which is a big if, then something like 18,000-24,000 civilians have died. The media always adds "mostly women and children." Given normal demographics I would it's mostly children. Funny how feminism isn't a thing when it comes to war.

War sucks and urban warfare really sucks when one side is embedded in buildings without any regard for possible civilian casualties. The strategy here is clear. Hamas crosses the border, commits a bunch of atrocities and then cries when the Israelis respond. Hamas are terrorists, murderers and rapists and the Palestinians in Gaza have been supporting them for 20 years.

Which is not to say they deserve what's going on. No one deserves this kind of stuff. Unfortunately it happens in a war. That's why war is to be avoided.

A lot of people are calling for a ceasefire including the UN Security Council. But they're not asking for the return of the remaining hostages at the same time. I suspect that's a non-starter. How many hostages are still alive? I've seen an estimate of about 100 but who knows? About 100 were returned during a previous ceasefire and I believe 30 or so have been declared as killed.

It's unclear to me what the Israeli end game is here beyond the return of the remaining hostages. I'm not sure they have one and that could be a real problem.