Saturday, September 21, 2024

The 2024 Election, September 21, 2024

Well, it's Saturday (I missed Friday) so time to capture the current numbers.

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -235 (-26), Harris - 276 (-1), Toss Up - 27 (+27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 225 (+17), Toss Up - 94 (-17)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -182 (-6), Harris - 226 (+3), Toss Up - 130 (+3)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (+15), Toss Up - 68 (-15)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 241 (+15), Toss Up - 78 (+28)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (-6)

I still can't make heads or tails out of this. It could go either way. If I had to bet today I would bet on Trump for three reasons.

(1) Republican voters appear unphased by Trump's increasingly bizarre antics. If Jesus Christ himself were to endorse Harris I suspect they would still vote for the guy with the (R) next to his name.

(2) Trump tends to outperform his polling numbers. We might be looking at a sort of "Trump Effect" where people are embarrassed to admit they're voting for him or are jerking around the pollsters.

(3) I have this suspicion that at the last minute some people are going to balk at voting for a woman.

Thursday, September 19, 2024

Medical Issues, September 19th, 2024

 I went back to the orthopedist to see about my broken ankle. I've been wearing this boot on my right ankle and I'd like to strangle the guy that designed it. It's curved front to back and side to side which makes me wobble. I keep feeling like I'm to fall and break my neck.

Going up stairs is OK but coming down I feel like I'm going to go flying because the damn boot is too big for the step.

My big hope was that I could dump the boot and I can, sort of. He told me to get an ankle brace but with no recommendations. Just go to Walgreens he says. 

Well finding an ankle brace turned out to be a little tricky. The one I got at Walgreens didn't work out so I ended up ordering one from Amazon (all hail Amazon, the god of buying stuff). It will be here tomorrow so I have to suffer one more day with the boot.

I also have to wear it when I go out.

But the big crushing blow was him saying that I need to go to physical therapy two or three times a week for 6-8 weeks in order to get my balance back!!!

Get my balance back? My balance would be fine if I wasn't wearing this damn boot.

I also canceled my knee surgery. I can't take the chance of having neither leg useable. So that at least got rid of four appointments. I get to see ankle guy in six weeks. 

The nasty appointment of course is getting the results of the lung CT from the thoracic surgeon. The scan is October 14th and I get the results on October 29th. That's two days before I see the ankle guy again.

Friday, September 13, 2024

The 2024 Election, September 13, 2024

Well, it's Friday again and the debate is over. 

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -261 (+31), Harris - 277 (+1), Toss Up - 0 (-32)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -281 (+16), Harris - 257 (-16), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -188 (+40), Harris - 223 (+13), Toss Up - 127 (-53)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (-32), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (+32)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 236 (NC), Toss Up - 83 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-27)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -281 (-6), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 6 (+6)

Given these numbers one would think that Trump won the debate. Clearly raking Trump over the coals did little or no good for Harris.

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

The Debate

Well, the debate is over and Harris pretty much made Trump look like a bumbling, incoherent fool.

Just to add to the chaos the ABC hosts fact checked him in real time about his claims of post-birth infanticide and migrants eating pets in Springfield Ohio. 

Trump spewed lie after lie after lie but this time looked mostly like a fool while doing it. His "barbs" bounced off Harris like she was wearing plate armor.

It was delicious.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure that it's going to make much difference.

Trump's voting block is solid and what sane people recognized as bald faced lies Trump voters were probably cheering on as "telling it like it is."

The most we can hope for is the debate will stunt Trump's recent momentum and hopefully reverse it but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

Friday, September 06, 2024

The 2024 Election, September 6, 2024

 Another Friday and another update. The big story recently has been that Nat Silver has declared that Trump has a 58% chance of winning to Harris' 41%. All of the ring wing news outlets have been running hard with this story. Personally, I'm not that impressed with Silver's model.

Again sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -230 (-11), Harris - 276 (-16), Toss Up - 32 (+16)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -265 (-3), Harris - 273 (+3), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)

Polling Map

Trump -148 (-70), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 180 (+70)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 236 (-15), Toss Up - 83 (+15)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

The big drop in Trump votes in the polling map comes from Texas and Florida going to undecided but I don't believe that for one second.

Everything else shows a tightening race. Looks like Harris' honeymoon period is over and things are setting back down. The debate is scheduled for September 10th and might be the deciding factor. I suppose we shall see what we shall see.

Saturday, August 31, 2024

Medical Issues, August 31st, 2024

Getting old sucks.

The fractured right ankle has added to my other physical woes of a shot left knee and the constant lung monitoring.

I had planned to finally get the knee attended to in December but the ankle has led me to wonder if I really want to go through this sort of thing again. I'm leaning toward canceling the knee replacement but my wife won't be happy about that.

My next lung checkup is in October. Hopefully the ankle will be better by then but bad news in the lung checkup might impact the scheduled repair even if I decide to go through with it.

I spend way too much time in doctor's offices. Let's look at the current schedule coming up.

September 5th, Pulmonologist, checkup.

September 13th, Dentist, cleaning.

September 16th week, Orthopedist, ankle checkup

October 14th, CT Scan, lungs.

October 29th, Thoracic Surgeon, results of CT Scan (this is the big one)

November 12th, Orthopedic Nurse, Knee Surgery pre-op

November 14th, Cardiologist, checkup and knee surgery clearance

November 18th, Pulmonologist, knee surgery clearance

November 19th, Primary Care, knee surgery clearance.

December 5th, Orthopedist, Knee Surgery

December 6th, Orthopedist, release from hospital

December 18th, Orthopedic PA, post knee surgery check-up 

January 6th, Eye Doctor, checkup

January 15th, Orthopedist, knee surgery checkup

Damn Ankle

It's been a week since I fractured my right ankle and I can say, unequivocally, that this SUCKS!

I hurt it last Saturday but optimistically decided it was just a strain. But walking to the bathroom and especially going up and down steps were kind of painful. I started using a walker to limit the weight on the ankle.

On Sunday I found it hard to get down the stairs and the ankle looked swollen and black and blue so I gave in and went to the spiffy new Valley Hospital Emergence Room.

I'm spending way too much fucking time at this hospital.

They discovered that it was fractured, wrapped the thing up in a splint and told me to confer with a orthopedist at good old Ridgewood Orthopedics. They gave me crutches but said that I could use a walker as well. The walker felt more secure so I've been using that.

I managed to get an appointment at Ridgewood Orthopedics for late Wednesday.

The doctor verified that it was fractured, but shouldn't require surgery (that was REALLY good), and had his assistant set me up with a walking boot.

Let's talk about this boot. First, the thing in big, clunky, plastic and annoying. It's big on Velcro which is used to both wrap the padding in place and on the three straps which holds the plastic cover in place.

OK, so far so good. What I want to know is who is the idiot that decided that rounding the sole of the boot was a good idea. Bad enough that it's hard, and slippery, plastic but the rounded bottom makes it feel like I'm constantly wobbling.

I take it off when I go to bed so I got a urinal to pee in so I don't have to put the damn thing on every time I need to use the facilities.

The doctor told me to get external lifts to fit on my left sneaker to even out the height. I managed to get them the next morning from Amazon and they are designed right. The have a ridged rubber sole which provides secure footing.

So now my bad left leg with the mangled knee has become the leg I need to rely upon. Obviously I spend a lot of time sitting on my rear end. I was told to lay off exercise for at least a weak and then to take it slow and easy.

I was told to come back in three weeks but the girl at checkout couldn't find an opening and said they would get back to me. I haven't heard from them yet so a call to them on Monday is on my agenda.

Friday, August 30, 2024

The 2024 Election, August 30, 2024

Well, it's Friday again. The DNC is over and RFK Jr. has dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump. There is some whispering in the back alleys that Trump may dump Vance for RFK but I don't think that's going to happen.

Harris and Walz gave a joint interview on CNN last night and the reactions have been lukewarm at best. Harris may have made the interview controversial by trying to be uncontroversial. Obviously any impact of that interview won't be in this week's numbers.

Again sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -230 (-11), Harris - 292 (+30), Toss Up - 16 (-19)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -268 (-19), Harris - 270 (+19), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (NC), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 110 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 68 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -235 (-16), Harris - 226 (-15), Toss Up - 77 (+31)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Only one site now has Trump with enough electoral votes to win the election and five others have him leading. The biggest impacts have been Real Clear Politics moving Pennsylvania from Trump to Harris in its No Tossups Map and many places making North Carolina a tossup.

Two sites now have Harris with enough votes to win the election and four have her leading.

Saturday, August 24, 2024

What are Harris' Policies?

Republicans and their supporters on the right keep asking what Kamala Harris' policies are?

Honestly, I'm not sure I care what her policies are. Congress passes laws and the budget so the president should be little more than the main suggester and critic. 

Unfortunately Executive Orders have become a way for the president to legislate. This isn't a new development. It has been the case since around the time of Theodore Roosevelt who issued 1,081 Executive orders which was more than the first 25 presidents issued combined. But the king of Executive Orders was Franklyn Roosevelt who issued 3,721. But at least he the excuse of s depression and a world war.

Things haven't been that crazy recently but presidents tend to issue between 200 and 400 Executive Orders during their tenure.

I didn't think much of Harris' economic plan and I'm leery of the idea of taxing unrealized capitol gains. I'm opposed to any consideration or reparations which I know that she at least wants to investigate.

I'm sure she's for a nationwide abortion protection, tax reform, improving the Social Security outlook and improved healthcare. I can probably get behind those although as usual the devil is in the details.

So we agree on some things and disagree on others which is what I would expect. The only way I could agree with a candidate on everything would be if the candidate was me.

Friday, August 23, 2024

The 2024 Election, August 23, 2024

I've noticed that some of these sites I've selected to track just aren't updating as often as I thought. I will mark sites that haven't updated in italics. I've also added four sites, Polling Map, Sabatos Crystal Ball, JHK Forecasts and Polymarket Odds, that have updated. I dropped Inside Elections because it hasn't updated since May.

Electoral Vote

Trump -241 (NC), Harris - 262 (-19), Toss Up - 35 (+19)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (NC), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 110 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (-33), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77

538 Model

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 68 (+18)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

There are now 12 prediction sites listed. Two have Trump with enough electoral votes to win the election and seven others have him leading. None have Harris with enough votes which is a change from last week and three have her leading.


Friday, August 16, 2024

The 2024 Election, August 16, 2024

Here's what the election prediction sites are saying.

Electoral Vote

Trump -241 (-29), Harris - 281 (+24), Toss Up - 16 (+5)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Inside Elections

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (-33), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77

538 Model

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (NC)


Not really a lot of changes. The only major movement was in Electoral Vote which is outweighed by little or no movement anywhere else.

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

10 Hurtful Things White People do to Their Black Colleagues Without Realizing it!?

This is a reaction to a gallery entitled "10 hurtful things white people do to their black colleagues without realizing it" (sic). Hey, I'm not the one that left out the capitals. As a general observation most of these things are actions of omission. I'm not sure how anyone could categorize an action of omission as "hurtful." At worst it's typically neutral.

1) Lack of Frank Feedback If I ever gave some black people constructive criticism I would immediately be labeled a racist. So why bother? 

 2) Failing to Advocate
It's not my job to "advocate" for someone else. Stand up for yourself. 

3) Exclusion from Social Events 
In my work experience external work events are open to all unless it's a private affair. In that case it's up to the individual to decide who they want to invite. 

4) Lack of Engagement on Issues Affecting the Black Community
The issues of the black community are not my problem. I have enough of my own problems to worry about. 

5) Disinterest in Learning About Black Culture
I've read "The Three Musketeers" and "The Count of Monte Cristo." Does that count? Or are you talking about only American black culture? What you probably mean by "black culture" I find questionable if not downright warped.

6) Not Showing Up (when invited to an event by black people)
Who people decide to spend their leisure time with is up to them. I'm not sure why anyone would think there is some sort of obligation to accept invitations. 

7) Gossip and Stereotyping
I'm an engineer. We don't really gossip unless it's about mathematical errors or dumb ideas. I suppose if this was something that occurred in a work environment I could see how it would be annoying.

8) Ignoring Microaggressions 
The whole micro transgression concept is a lot of nonsense and does an incredible amount of harm. If you really have a problem with what you call a "micro aggression" call people on it when they do it because they probably don't realize that it's a problem. I wouldn't expect anyone else to do it for you.

9) Tokenism
So we should shut down DEI and Affirmative Action initiatives? I'm all for that. 

10) Inconsistent Support for Racial Justice (including supporting "black businesses" and fighting "systemic racism")
Like I said in #4, I have my own problems to worry about. You need to stand up for yourself. What I won't do is stand in your way. I will only support "black owned businesses" if they are best provider of the products or services that I need. I'm not convinced that "systemic racism" is actually a thing. It strikes me as a convenient scapegoat when looking into the real reasons for something is too expensive or likely to yield an answer that people don't like. If you're pushing for "equity" rather than "equality," then you will find me in the opposition because "equity" is not a rational goal. 
 

Friday, August 09, 2024

The 2024 Election August 9, 2024

Here's what the election prediction sites are saying.

Electoral Vote

Trump -270, Harris - 257, Toss Up - 11

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219, Harris - 208, Toss Up - 111

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287, Harris - 251, Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -235, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 77

Cook Political Report

Trump -235, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 77

Inside Elections

Trump -235, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 77

Fox News

Trump -251, Harris - 241, Toss Up - 46

Elections Daily

Trump -268, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 44

538 Model

Trump -262, Harris - 226, Toss Up - 50

Clearly this is still Trump's election to lose. He leads in every model and in two has the 270 required electoral votes or more. RCP with no tossups has Trump winning handily with 287 electoral votes.

Harris Picks Tim Walz

Harris went with Minnesota governor Tim Walz as her VP choice. Walz may look like everyone's grandpa but he packs a wallop and is not afraid to get in the trenches. He's going to make the perfect pit bull for Harris.

Momentum and enthusiasm have come along with Harris but she still has a long way to go.

Trump's base is very hard to shake and the Democratic Party coalition is still very fragile. It's going to be a tough one.

Tuesday, July 23, 2024

So What do I Think?

I think Biden was right to drop out. Harris may have her own baggage to contend with but I think she can stir up the base better than Biden could.

A big issue will be the choice of running mate and hopefully the Democrats won't make a really big mistake in the choice. Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania would be my guess.

Sunday, July 21, 2024

Biden Drops Out

Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination.

Let the games begin!

Monday, July 15, 2024

Trump Chooses JD Vance for VP

Trump has selected JD Vance, the junior senator from Ohio as his VP choice.

Oh good lord. The only good thing that I can say about Vance is that he's an ex-marine.

He's opposed to abortion even in cases of rape or incest. He explains his opposition as that "two wrongs don't make a right."

He supports a nationwide ban on abortions after 15 weeks and opposes same sex marriage.

He's a converted Catholic. He's opposed to supporting Ukraine but in favor of supporting Israel. So he's 50% correct there.

He's also young at only 39 years old which means he could be a major player for a long time. He has a JD from Yale so he's not stupid and that could be a real problem.

Trump could have made a worse choice but this one isn't all that great.

Documents Case Dismissed

Judge Eileen Cannon has dismissed the documents case against Donald Trump.

The rationale is that Special Prosecutor Jack Smith wasn't properly appointed because he wasn't approved by Congress and his budget wasn't specifically authorized by Congress.

This is an argument that has been made and rejected many times in the past. It's nonsense. The DOJ has a budget authorized by Congress and has always been able to use that budget for special prosecutors.

Think how difficult it would be to appoint a special prosecutor if every time they had to be approved by Congress and have a specific budget allocated by Congress?

I wonder how many people in prison thanks to special prosecutors can now challenge their convictions?

Trump's wins over the last couple of weeks almost make me believe there's a devil and Trump has made a deal with him. This is a federal case. If Trump wins the election, which looks almost certain, he can pardon himself. Our "justice" system really is a joke.

Saturday, July 13, 2024

Someone Shot at Trump

Shots were apparently fired at Donald Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania. He appeared to be OK as secret service agents rushed him off stage.

Friday, July 05, 2024

The Price of Taco Shells

We eat a fair amount of soft Taco shells. I use them for sandwiches and we do have Tacos from time to time. During the pandemic I started buying them from Amazon in 12 packs of ten Taco shells. 

May 13th, 2020 - $20.88

June 30th, 2020 - $20.88

August 19th, 2020 - $27.49

September 23rd, 2020 -$21.00

November 13th, 2020 - $21.00

December 19th, 2020 - $21.00

March 12th, 2021 - $20.88

May 23rd, 2021 - $21.00

September 5th, 2021 - $26.03

November 9th, 2021 - $27.66

March 21st, 2022 - $29.51

July 10th, 2022 - $22.99

October 5th, 2022 - $26.88

February 20th, 2023 - $26.88

June 24th, 2023 - $29.28

January 8th, 2024 - $29.88

July 5th, 2024 - $33.99

However this was the first time I found other options. There was a 6 pack of 10 and a 5 pack of 6. The 6 pack of 10 at $15.99 actually turned out to be about 2 cents per Taco shell less expensive so that was the one I actually bought this time. The 5 pack of 6 was priced at $18.99 which was completely ridiculous.

Tuesday, July 02, 2024

What is Atheism?

Atheism can be EITHER a lack of belief in a god (weak atheism) or the position that there is no god (strong atheism). The position that that there is no god is a positive claim and carries a burden of proof. 

The lack of belief in a god is not a positive claim. The lack of belief that there is no god is a perfectly valid way to describe a weak theism. However religion DOES NOT position itself that way and neither do most theists. They make the positive claim that a god exists. Atheists simply reject that claim. 

No, a burden does not attach to the rejection of a claim. Consider a criminal trial. The positive claim by the prosecution is that the defendant committed a crime. It has the burden of proof to demonstrate that claim. The defense rejects the claim. The defense DOES NOT have to demonstrate that the defendant is innocent but simply that the prosecution has not met its burden of proof. 

Atheists find god not guilty of existing. 

This is basic epistemology 101. The person making the positive claim has the burden of proof. Those rejecting the claim need only show why the evidence is insufficient to justify belief. You can apply this to fairies, unicorns, leprechauns and big foot. I reject the claim that these things exist. By doing so I don't acquire a burden of proof to show that they don't.

Monday, July 01, 2024

Supreme Court Immunity Decision

The Supreme Court has ruled that a president has immunity from subsequent prosecution for the execution of official actions while in office.

The media, and others, are treating this like it's a shock. If you think about it then it makes a lot of sense. The key here is "official actions." 

Let me make this simple. If it's illegal then it's by definition not an official action.

Friday, June 28, 2024

Results of the First Debate

Ouch, Biden got absolutely torched.

Trump was strong and confident while Biden came across as a befuddled old man with a raspy voice.

It must be nice not to have to worry about the truth because Trump didn't seem to worry as he told whopper after whopper. No, there aren't such things as post birth abortions. It was New York state that prosecuted him. The DOJ had nothing to do with it and there is no evidence that the judge is corrupt as he claimed. I could go on but that's enough.

But the lies don't matter because presentation is everything. Given the polls and the disaster last night, without some sort of miracle, I don't see how Trump doesn't win come November.

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

The First Debate

Biden and Trump are scheduled to debate tomorrow evening and I have no idea what to expect. I'm also probably not going to watch the thing live. I'll catch the highlights on video later.

The media is simpleminded. So my primary concern is that Biden makes some sort of minor, but easily understandable error, which the media plays up all out of proportion. In the meantime, Trump is so incoherent that the media is incapable of unraveling what he says and basically gives him a pass.

Well, maybe not. More likely is that Trump will spew an unending stream of lies and misinformation that the media will ignore but harp on any and all errors, no matter how small, that Biden makes.

Thursday, June 06, 2024

Lung Issues - June 6th, 2024

My thyroid is fine. The numbers were right down the middle.

Apparently my aortic and iliac aneurisms are fine as well. I had my yearly ultrasound and the stents are doing their job. They haven't gotten any bigger and there are no leaks. (leaks? WTF?)  

Who Owns Palestine?

People keep talking about Palestine as Arab land. Even I have used that term when discussing the refusal to accept the UN partition plan.

But what is the legal basis for that claim? I never thought about it in those terms. I simply figured that the Arabs lived there so they considered it their land. However it turns out there is a legal basis for the Arab claim that Palestine is an Arab state or should be an Arab state.

Of course it's the fault of the British.

During World War I the British made multiple agreements with different parties about the land controlled by the Ottoman Empire. 

One of these agreements was in a series of letters between Sharif Husayn of Mecca and Sir Henry McMahon in which agreement was reached about Arab aid against the Ottoman Empire in exchange for British recognition of an independent Arab state.

In a letter dated July 14th, 1915 Sharif Husayn laid out the Arab conditions including the anticipated boundaries of the Arab state.

"Firstly.- England will acknowledge the independence of the Arab countries, bounded on the north by Mersina and Adana up to the 37th degree of latitude, on which degree fall Birijik, Urfa, Mardin, Midiat, Jezirat (Ibn 'Umar), Amadia, up to the border of Persia; on the east by the borders of Persia up to the Gulf of Basra; on the south by the Indian Ocean, with the exception of the position of Aden to remain as it is; on the west by the Red Sea, the Mediterranean Sea up to Mersina. England to approve the proclamation of an Arab Khalifate of Islam."

In a letter dated August 30th, 1915, McMahon responded: "With regard to the questions of limits and boundaries, it would appear to be premature to consume our time in discussing such details in the heat of war..."

Sharif Husayn expressed his disappointment with this response in a letter dated September 9th, 1915:

"Nevertheless, your Excellency will pardon me and permit me to say clearly that the coolness and hesitation which you have displayed in the question of the limits and boundaries... might be taken to infer an estrangement or something of the sort."

McMahon in a letter dated October 24th, 1915 moved to alleviate Sharif Husayn's concerns.

"I regret that you should have received from my last letter the impression that I regarded the question of the limits and boundaries with coldness and hesitation; such was not the case, but it appeared to me that the time had not yet come when that question could be discussed in a conclusive manner. 

I have realised, however, from your last letter that you regard this question as one of vital and urgent importance. I have, therefore, lost no time in informing the Government of Great Britain of the contents of your letter, and it is with great pleasure that I communicate to you on their behalf the following statement, which I am confident you will receive with satisfaction:- 

The two districts of Mersina and Alexandretta and portions of Syria lying to the west of the districts of Damascus, Homs, Hama and Aleppo cannot be said to be purely Arab, and should be excluded from the limits demanded."

"With the above modification, and without prejudice of our existing treaties with Arab chiefs, we accept those limits."

The British took the position that this excluded Palestine from the agreed upon boundaries and the Palestinian Arabs claimed that it did not. Talks intended to resolve the differences failed and in the White Paper of 1939 Britain stated:

"In the recent discussions the Arab delegations have repeated the contention that Palestine was included within the area in which Sir Henry McMahon, on behalf of the British Government, in October, 1915, undertook to recognise and support Arab independence...His Majesty's Government regret the misunderstandings which have arisen as regards some of the phrases used. For their part they can only adhere...to the view that the whole of Palestine west of Jordan was excluded from Sir Henry McMahon's pledge, and they therefore cannot agree that the McMahon correspondence forms a just basis for the claim that Palestine should be converted into an Arab State."

In the same White Paper Britain rejects the idea of the whole of Palestine becoming a Jewish State.

"When it is asked what is meant by the development of the Jewish National Home in Palestine, it may be answered that it is not the imposition of a Jewish nationality upon the inhabitants of Palestine as a whole, but the further development of the existing Jewish community, with the assistance of Jews in other parts of the world, in order that it may become a centre in which the Jewish people as a whole may take, on grounds of religion and race, an interest and pride."

What the paper does suggest is a multi-national state with each group participating in the government in proportion to the size of the population.

"The independent State should be one in which Arabs and Jews share government in such a way as to ensure that the essential interests of each community are safeguarded."

This recommendation contradicted the conclusion of the 1937 Peel Commission that concluded that Palestine had two distinct societies with irreconcilable political demands, thus making it necessary to partition the land.

Sunday, June 02, 2024

Racial Profiling?

We were coming home from a Giants' football game one night a few years ago. As we were passing through town there was a black dude with dreadlocks driving a beat up old Pinto pulled over. We have three police cars in town and two of them had this guy bracketed. My daughter looked over, shook her head and said "he had no chance." 

My town is 89% white and 10% Asian. The other 1% are mixed race or Hispanic. The police know every car that belongs in town. They can reel off what cars are expected to be parked at what houses. The other thing is that my town is basically a dead end. There is almost no reason to be there unless you're going there especially at night. 

So, racial profiling or not?

Friday, May 31, 2024

Stolen Palestinian Land

I just watched a video about Israeli settlements in the West Bank being on stolen Palestinian land. But I have a problem with this description.

How did this become stolen "Palestinian" land when the Palestinians never controlled it? 

- Prior to WW I the West Bank was part of the Ottoman Empire.

- From 1918 to 1922 all of Palestine was occupied by British troops. 

- From 1922 until 1948 it was under British control as part of the Mandate for Palestine. 

- In 1947 it was part of the proposed Arab State in the UN partition plan. However the Arabs rejected the plan and never took control of the West Bank. 

- After the 1948 war the West Bank was under Jordanian occupation and Jordan formally annexed it in 1950. 

- In 1967 Jordan, in keeping with its military pact with Egypt, attacked Israel. After bloody hand to hand fighting Israel captured the West Bank. 

- In 1988 Jordan relinquished any claims to the West Bank and recognized the PLO as the "sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian People." 

- In 1995, under the Oslo Agreement, the West Bank was divided into three zones as a transitional arrangement. Zone A under Palestinian control, Zone B under joint Palestinian and Israeli control and Zone C under Israeli control. The settlements are in Zone C. 

So the land upon which the settlements are built were never under Palestinian control. How does one steal something from someone who never owned it?

Thursday, May 30, 2024

Trump Guilty on all 34 Counts in New York

Donald Trump has been found guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records at his trial in New York.

I have to admit that I'm really surprised by the verdict. I was expecting a hung jury or at best guilty on one or two counts and not guilty on the rest.

So, now what? These are E Felonies and it's my understanding that, especially with no previous convictions, that it's highly unlikely that Trump will get any jail time.

So does this really matter? Yes, I think it does. It emphasizes the point that no one is above the law even if I expect a sentence the equivalent of "now Donny, say three Hail Marys and promise never to do this again."

Friday, May 17, 2024

Lung Issues - May 17th, 2024

I got the results from the blood test and, surprise, I don't have Tuberculosis.

I suppose I should be happy that everything is negative but it makes you wonder.

In the meantime, I went back to the eye doctor and everything is terrific except that my right eye protrudes slightly. So she wants me to contact my PCD about a thyroid test.

It never ends. It never does.

Monday, May 06, 2024

Lung Issues - May 6th, 2024

So I saw the infectious disease lady doctor today. They did require masks in the office interestingly enough.

She said when they looked at the biopsy they detected a class of bacteria of which tuberculosis is a member so everyone immediately freaked out.

So, they did four pathology tests and all of them were negative for TB but they didn't send a sample to microbiology to do a culture. So that's what she wants me to do.

She doesn't think I have TB but a blood test and culture will settle it once and for all. So I need to make an appointment for a blood test.

It never ends. It never does.

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

The War in Gaza II

Pro-Hamas protestors are causing havoc on college campuses at mostly so-called elite college campuses.

The protests are asking the US to stop arming Israel, demanding a ceasefire and generally supporting the Palestinian cause. They're often also breaking laws which has gotten some reactions from police and campus officials.

There is more than a touch of anti-Semitism, anti-Americanism and youthful stupidity among the protestors.

On the one hand I sympathize with calls for ceasefire; war is never a good thing. On the other hand I wonder at the naivete being displayed.

Hamas still holds 100 hostages. They need to be returned either before, or as part of, any ceasefire agreement. That is the bare minimum. Then the shooting can stop and humanitarian supplies can flow into Gaza.

Before the ceasefire can be permanent I suspect Israel will want some way of insuring that this doesn't happen again in the future. This is the part that worries me.

I doubt these kids, or even the teachers that appeared to have brainwashed them, have any clue as to the actual history of the conflict. Most of the protestors don't even remember 9/11. They are supporting the same sort of terrorists that attacked the twin towers and have set off bombs in Europe and in Israel.

These are not good people and do not deserve your support.

Of course the response will be that they're not supporting terrorists but peace and providing the innocent, peaceful Palestinian people a land of their own. Or even restoring the country "back" to the Palestinians which is what "from the river to the sea" means.

Well, the Palestinians never "had" the land so they can't get it "back." The last owners were the Ottoman Empire if we ignore the British during Mandatory Palestine.

They are supporting terrorists. This artificial line between Hamas and the Palestinian Arabs in Gaza is nonsense. Hamas crossed the border in an unprovoked attack and murdered, kidnapped and raped innocent people.

This led to a declaration of war. Waging war in reprisal for an attack is not genocide. Is Israel breaking international law and committing war crimes by attacking civilian targets? That might be a valid charge but I don't know for certain. I know with certainty that Hamas violated the Geneva Convention but two wrongs generally don't make a right.

 The question of Israel breaking international law is, unfortunately, a lot more complicated than most people think and simply making accusations doesn't make it so. There are lots of exceptions in the Geneva Convention because combatants, especially in urban warfare, have a bad habit of being in civilian targets.

So it would take a while to sort this out assuming anyone ever bothers.

To my mind you can't attack someone, commit a bunch of atrocities, and then whine that the people you attacked aren't being nice to you.

Lung Issues - April 30, 2024

I got my biopsy results today and I do not have cancer. That's a good thing.

I didn't even get a chance to celebrate before Dr. Shapiro said but there's some inflammation in the lung, which explains everything we saw, but you might have a slight infection somewhere. So, I want you to see an infectious disease doctor.

WTF man? Another doctor? I get to see Shapiro again in six months.

He gave me a reference but when I called their office the doctor wasn't there and they said they couldn't make an appointment without talking to her. So I'm waiting for a return call.

Then I started thinking about this. The practice is called "Ridgewood Infectious Diseases." What kind of infectious diseases? Contagious infectious diseases? I'd rather not catch something when I go to their office.

 

Saturday, April 27, 2024

A Wealth Tax

 I've see a number of progresses recently trying to resurrect the idea of a wealth tax.

The number of current OECD members that have collected revenue from net wealth taxes grew from eight in 1965 to a peak of 12 in 1996 to just five in 2020. In France the tax has been cut back to only real estate and in Spain if you live in Madrid you're exempt (I think I see a way of getting around it in Spain). 

Switzerland does the best with this sort of tax and it accounts for 5.12% of revenues. Among the five countries which have some sort of wealth tax revenues from the tax amount to only 1.5% of revenues.

The US generated $4.4 trillion in revenue in 2023. So if we did as well as Switzerland, and we probably won't, that would net about $225 billion. That's a nice chunk of change but only about 13% of the current budget deficit.

Then comes the question of Constitutionality. An honest appraisal of whether the Constitution would allow a wealth tax would probably revolve around whether it is a "direct" tax.

Article 1 Section 9 Clause 4 provides: “No Capitation, or other direct, Tax shall be laid, unless in Proportion to the Census or enumeration herein before directed to be taken.”

However, Article I Section 8 Clause 1 provides Congress’s general taxing power: “The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence [sic] and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States.”

The "uniform" requirement in Section 8 seems to conflict with the apportionment requirement in Section 9. 

But there is a difference between theory and practicality.

I see no way to get a wealth tax past this SCOTUS. We'd be much better off reforming the income tax tables and closing loopholes to shift the tax burden from the working class to the wealthy. We know with absolute certainly that would be Constitutional. Or at least I think we know that. With this SCOTUS you never know for sure.

Friday, April 26, 2024

Forty Plus Years of Inflation

Do young folks have it harder today? There is a lot of argument about that on the internet so I decided to let the numbers do the talking.

The median home price in Q2 1980 was $64,000. In Q2 2024 it was $414,500. Based upon inflation we would expect it to be $247,741. 

The average tuition cost for public universities in 1980 was $804. In 2022 it was $9,750. Based upon inflation we would expect it to be $2,840. 

The average tuition cost for private universities in 1980 was $3,617. In 2022 it was $35,248. Based upon inflation we would expect it to be $12,780. 

The median household income in 1980 was $26,430. In 2023 it was $80,610. Based upon inflation we would expect it to be $96,843. 

So home prices and tuition have outpaced inflation and median income has fallen short.

Those are the numbers. Life is DEFINITELY harder today.

Let's be honest, in addition the minefield was certainly less dense. I graduated college in 1969 from the City University of New York. It was tuition free and I lived with my parents and commuted until I graduated so no student debt. 

I had a $300 1961 Mercury Comet that my dad gave me so no car loan. He replaced the Comet with a $150 Ford Fairlane. 

There were no charge cards so no charge card debt. There was no internet, cable TV or cell phones so these expenses just didn't exist. 

Air fares were regulated so no one but the rich could afford to fly with any regularity so vacations were pretty much limited to where you could get to by car. With no internet there was no online shopping with all the potential pitfalls that come with that. 

Plus, every decent company provided good health insurance AND a real life pension.

So my question is, WTF happened? I thought technology was supposed to make things cheaper and better? 

Damnit - I Caught My Daughters Cold

OK, this is more than a little annoying. I have a low grade fever and I'm still choking up some congealed blood.

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Lung Issues - April 23, 2024

Well, the biopsy is done.

Things didn't start out well. We pressed the 1R button in the elevator and we got an angry noise. OK, on to the steps. Two nice young guys held open the gate and the door for me. I never felt so old in my life.

I signed in at the desk and they sent up down one floor and along this looong hallway with the history of Valley Hospital along the wall to Diagnostic Imaging.

I made my presence known and, luckily, since I had already logged in online I had nothing to do but sit down. They had nice chairs, sturdy and wide. I could have gotten two of me in each of those chairs.

The took me inside about 15 minutes late, after I had dragged my sorry read end out of bed at 6:30 too, and put me in what looked like an Emergency Room room. 

I had to strip to the waist and lie down on the stretcher while they hooked me up to the monitors. Then the nurse says she's going to hook up an IV. I asked what was in the IV and she said nothing. It was just in case I passed out and had to medicate me.

THAT didn't do much for me but I decided to just let it go. My wife got a little chair in the corner which she swore wasn't nearly as comfortable, or sturdy, as the ones in the waiting area.

A few minutes later a doctor came in and gave me a summary of what he was going to do.

A few minutes after that they rolled me to the CT Scanner.

So the way things worked was they were taking pictures with the CT Scanner; I had my arms up over my head and the doctor was lining up his needle jab in the corner of my chest but not quite under my arm. They gave me a little local anesthetic and then the doctor did his thing. He asked me if I wanted something to relax me but I said no. He said that he didn't think I would but he had to ask. I suppose that's why they didn't want me to drive just in case I had taken the stuff.

It took about 20 minutes all told and I heard four clicks which, if I remember, means he took four samples.

After it was done he asked me if I felt like I needed to clear my throat and warned me there might be some blood when I did.

Holy shit was there blood. I never saw so much red. They gave me paper towels and a spit bag to deposit them it. Shit, there was a lot of blood. The doctor laughed and said, eh, I've seen worse."

That actually made me feel better. I am glad my wife didn't see this. It started to let up after a couple of minutes and they wheeled me back to the room. I spit up a bit more but very little once back in the room.

I got to lay there for about an hour and then they wheeled me down the hallway for a chest X-Ray.  A half hour after that they let me go.

They said six to seven days until the results are in which could be a minor problem since my office visit with Dr. Shapiro is in exactly a week.

If the results turn out to be not good, things will get ugly. But, there's nothing I can do about that now,

Monday, April 22, 2024

Lung Issues - April 22, 2024

The biopsy is tomorrow. The idea of dragging my rear end out of bed at 6:45 in order to get to the hospital by 7:45 or so really doesn't thrill me but you do but you have to do.

We went last Thursday to check out where the entrance to the new hospital building was and I never saw so many confused people. There's a parking garage attached and you go to 1R o get to the entrance,

Not the most obvious way to go but now we know. I assume people will get used to it as time goes by. Any new thing can be confusing I suppose but on the way out there were two poor woman that couldn't find their cars.

They could also really use some speed bumps in the garage. People were speeding through the place.

Anyway, I'm going to hit the sack early tonight and we shall see what we shall see.

Monday, April 15, 2024

Some Notes on Slavery

It's hard for us looking back to understand how complicated people found the issue of slavery. Even many that conceded the evil of the institution didn't think that an immediate across the board emancipation was going to work. 

Many were convinced that the freed slaves would have to be "expatriated" somewhere. 

Abraham Lincoln proposed shipping the ex-slaves to Central America, the Caribbean or Africa. On August 14, 1862, Lincoln met at the White House delegation of black leaders and proposed voluntary emigration of African Americans to countries outside the U.S. “Your race suffer from living among us, while ours suffer from your presence. It is better for us both, therefore, to be separated.” 

Stephen Douglas essentially told him he was nuts but Lincoln tried to establish a colony on the island of ÃŽle à Vache in Haiti anyway. 

It was an unmitigated disaster and Lincoln accepted that the freed slaves would have to be assimilated into white society.

Sunday, April 14, 2024

When Was America Great?

I'm no fan of Trump and his followers. People have taken to asking his MAGA supporters, since they want to make America great AGAIN, when they think America was great?

I'd like to answer that question.

America was great when we looked to the future rather than living in the past. Slavery is over and 600,000 men paid in blood before it ended. 

 Jim Crow is over. Enough people put their heads together and did something about it. 

The past is the past. How about we recognize the problems of the present and try to address them? How about we worry about the drugs and the crime and the unwed mothers and the lack of affordable healthcare and the absent fathers and that children can't read and that people can't live on their salaries?

How are those for facts? 

I heard a black woman on the radio recently refer to the five little girls killed in the 16th Street Baptist Church bombing in 1963. Yes, that was a tragedy but what about the 1,300 teens and 276 children killed last year? 

We can't do anything about the past but we can do something about the current problems and the future. 

I'm 75 years old and I'm going to tell you that I've never seen a bigger group of fools than exists today. Every day I watch the rich and the media drive wedges between people to insure that we can't get together and make things better.

Saturday, April 13, 2024

Iran Launches Strikes Against Israel

In retaliation for an Israeli air strike on Iran's consular offices in Syria Iran has launched 100-200 missile and drones at Israel.

Iran telegraphed the attack and launched mostly slow moving assets. Virtually all of the missiles and drones appear to have been shot down by Israeli, US and Jordanian forces.

The question is what happens next?

There are reports that an Iranian spokesman has said the the "matter can be considered concluded" unless there is more violence.

So far Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in the West Bank don't appear to have participated in the attack. Hamas, in Gaza, is pretty much in tatters already.

The ball may be in Israel's court. Hopefully they'll let the matter drop but I somehow doubt it.

Wednesday, April 10, 2024

What is a Woman?

The question "what is a woman" is tossed around by mostly right wing pundits as a sort of gotcha question.

The question "what is a woman" looks for a simple answer to what can be a complex situation. 

Let's start by asking if someone is talking about sex or gender when they ask the question? Sex and gender, despite many people using the terms interchangeably, are actually two different things. Sex is based upon physical characteristics such as chromosomes and genitalia. Gender defines the behavior and attitudes that society associates with a given sex.

The thing with gender is that it can vary from society to society and over time in any given society. Neither my mother nor my mother-in-law ever learned how to drive because that wasn't something that women did in their generation.

When people deviate from gender expectations we call that "gender non-conformity." Gender is something of a spectrum with man on one end, woman on the other end, and varying degrees of gender non-conformity in between. I suppose a "woman" on the gender spectrum would be someone who mostly exhibits behaviors and attitudes that society associates with the female sex.

A good example would be the fictional character Albert Goldman played by Nathan Hale in the movie "The Birdcage." Albert is a physical male but acts like the caricature of a female.

If the question refers to sex and not gender then I would say that it perhaps should be phrased as "what is a female" instead but let's go with "what is a woman" in reference to sex.

I can give an example. My wife is a woman but not every woman is my wife. I could say that a woman is someone with no Y chromosome but then where do people with Swyer Syndrome fit in?

Someone with Swyer syndrome has XY chromosomes but underdeveloped female sex organs. They don't produce ova but, if the uterus is reasonably developed, some can become pregnant with a donated egg or embryo and give birth.

I could say that a woman is someone with female genitalia but there are females with ambiguous or abnormal genitalia but they're still women. Some can even possibly become pregnant and give birth with donated eggs or embryos like those with Swyer Syndrome can.

You can't say that a woman is someone who can get pregnant and give birth because many women, due to age or physical issues, can't do that.

The problem really becomes that for any definition exceptions can be found. So the question doesn't have a simple answer.

Lung Issues - April 10, 2024

I had a collapsed lung in November of 2021 which stubbornly wouldn't reinflate. So they called in a thoracic surgeon to repair the lung. He saw a spot on the lung which he didn't like and took it out while he was in there.

The spot turned out to be cancerous and I've been going for regular CT Scans to monitor the situation. Yesterday I went to hear the surgeon's latest interpretation of the scan.

He's not happy with how one nodule, right near the one he removed two years ago, is acting and is sending me for a biopsy.

I have to get blood drawn tomorrow and then go for the biopsy on the 23rd. I see the surgeon again on the 30th to get the results.

It sounds like this biopsy is a bit of a big deal. I need to be at the brand new Valley Hospital at 8 AM. The instructions say they will give me a local anesthetic and then use a CT Scanner to stick a needle into the area of my lung in question. That should be fun.

The thing that really concerns me is they say there is a reasonable chance that the lung could collapse slightly, or not so slightly, and I really don't need to go through that again. Then I get monitored for a couple of hours I suppose just in case the lung collapses.

I'm not allowed to drive afterwards and I wonder why that's the case? So my wife has to go with me. I suppose we shall see what we shall see.

Thursday, April 04, 2024

The War in Gaza

The war in Gaza continues and casualties are mounting especially among the Palestinian civilian population.

The Gaza Health Ministry claims 30,000 Palestinians have been killed but doesn't differentiate between combatants and civilians. Hamas admits to 6,000 fighters killed while the IDF claims 12,000. Either way, assuming the Health Ministry numbers are correct, which is a big if, then something like 18,000-24,000 civilians have died. The media always adds "mostly women and children." Given normal demographics I would it's mostly children. Funny how feminism isn't a thing when it comes to war.

War sucks and urban warfare really sucks when one side is embedded in buildings without any regard for possible civilian casualties. The strategy here is clear. Hamas crosses the border, commits a bunch of atrocities and then cries when the Israelis respond. Hamas are terrorists, murderers and rapists and the Palestinians in Gaza have been supporting them for 20 years.

Which is not to say they deserve what's going on. No one deserves this kind of stuff. Unfortunately it happens in a war. That's why war is to be avoided.

A lot of people are calling for a ceasefire including the UN Security Council. But they're not asking for the return of the remaining hostages at the same time. I suspect that's a non-starter. How many hostages are still alive? I've seen an estimate of about 100 but who knows? About 100 were returned during a previous ceasefire and I believe 30 or so have been declared as killed.

It's unclear to me what the Israeli end game is here beyond the return of the remaining hostages. I'm not sure they have one and that could be a real problem.

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Bill Mahar on Slavery

Bill Mahar went on a bit of a rant about slavery that some "progressive" sites have labeled as horrendous. I watched the clip and I didn't see anything horrendous about it beyond some truths that some folks don't want to acknowledge.

The whole point Maher is making is that slavery was a common horror all over the word and that's true. Modern "progressives" seem to think that slavery was unique to North America. OK, when he started talking about "you have to cancel Jesus" because he never spoke out against it, that was a little weird I'll give you that. 

He then went on to complain about people wanting to cancel historical figures because they owned slaves. Yes, people have demanded that statues of Washington, Jefferson and even Ulysses S. Grant, because he had a slave that he freed, be torn down because they owned slaves in an era where lots of people, including black people in the US, owned slaves. Can you spell "presentism?" 

The authors of the Constitution mistakenly thought that slavery was on the way out and would disappear within the next ten or twenty years. Even the slaveholding states thought that this was the case which is why they didn't get too upset over Article 1, Section 9 which allowed Congress to make the importation of slaves illegal in 20 years. That's exactly what happened on January 1, 1808 based upon an 1807 bill signed into law by Thomas Jefferson. 

In the meantime slavery was either abolished or being phased out in all of the northern states by 1808.

Unfortunately, the gods laugh at the foolishness of mortals and the invention of the Cotton Gin in 1793 suddenly made an institution of questionable economic value into one that appeared to be enormously profitable. Cotton production exploded from 700 hectares in 1790 to 17,000 hectares in 1800 and then to over a million hectares in 1861. 

The ironic thing was that slavery was still a millstone around the southern economy. It made a handful of people rich but generally kept the entire area as something of an economic backwater. Free labor would have been much more productive and improved things for everyone including the plantation owners.

Friday, March 15, 2024

Was Social Security Racist?

I ran into a claim today that the original Social Security bill was racist because it excluded agricultural and domestic workers most of whom were black.

A little background investigation led me to understand that this claim was accurate but misleading. It was accurate that agricultural and domestic workers were originally not eligible but NOT because they were specifically excluded but because they were outside of the groups that were included.

The Social Security Act of 1935 was a complicated bill that contained 11 Titles and authorized 7 distinct programs. Only Title II was what we now know as Social Security. It was the only one of the 7 programs that was solely a federal program. The rest were federal and state supported (think today's Medicaid). 

All of the racism claims, even those by well known historians, confuse the racial motives associated with programs other than Title II with Title II. Title II did not exclude blacks, nor did it exclude agricultural and domestic workers, rather it only included those workers regularly employed in commerce and industry. 

This left out a whole slew of occupations in addition to agricultural and domestic workers (which usually drives the racism claim) including the self employed, merchant seamen and members of congress. Of the 20 million workers excluded 15 million were white.

So this is a highly dubious claim based upon manipulating the truth to make it say what you want it to say even though it's bullshit.

Monday, March 11, 2024

So...I'm a lot Poorer

I got my taxes done today and had to fork over $9,642 for the federal government and $1,273 for the state bringing my total tax bills to $35,251 for the feds and $5,326 for the state.

Well, I suppose it could be worse.

Thursday, March 07, 2024

The War in Gaza

Why is it only the Jews that aren't allowed to strike back when they're attacked? 

I'd like to ask those protesting against Israel whether they agree that Hamas needs to be destroyed. If yes then how do they propose that can be done? If no then I'd like to know why not?

It's not a genocide. That's just name-calling which is a well known propaganda technique. It's war and war sucks. That's why you don't start one. Clearly these youngsters have never had the misfortune of engaging in urban warfare. Every death should be laid at the feet of Hamas. They were the ones that crossed the border and murdered 1400 people, raped helpless women and kidnapped 250 others or have they forgotten that? Hamas is the problem that needs to be eradicated. I don't understand why these young people are supporting terrorists, rapists and murderers. 

Were the Allies committing genocide during World War II against the Germans and Japanese? On February 13-15, 1945 over a thousand British and US bombers destroyed the city of Dresden killing an estimated 25,000 civilians. On March 9, 1945 280 US B-29s dropped incendiary bombs on Tokyo killing an estimated 100,000 civilians. Then there was Hiroshima, 70,000 dead and Nagasaki, 40,000 dead. An estimated 125,000 civilians died during the battle of Berlin. Like I said, war sucks. That's why you don't start one.

Monday, March 04, 2024

Great and Small Minds

 A quote originally attributed to Socrates and then paraphrased by Eleanor Roosevelt goes like this:

Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people."

Trump Stays on the Ballot

Unsurprisingly the Supreme Court has decided, in a 9-0 decision, that Trump can't be kept off the ballot based upon the 14th Amendments clause about insurrection barring someone from holding office.

Three states, Colorado, Maine and Illinois, had wanted to keep him off the primary ballot.

I say "unsurprisingly" because Trump hasn't actually been convicted of anything.

Tuesday, February 20, 2024

What is Non-Binary?

Non-Binary is a term that literally means "not two choices." There can be one choice or three or more choices but there can't be exactly two.

But I'm confused as to what it means when applied to gender.

I say gender and not sex because sex and gender are different things. From the American Psychological Association: 

"Sex is assigned at birth, refers to one’s biological status as either male or female, and is associated primarily with physical attributes such as chromosomes, hormone prevalence, and external and internal anatomy. Gender refers to the socially constructed roles, behaviors, activities, and attributes that a given society considers appropriate for boys and men or girls and women." 

If you don't understand this you're going to always be confused. Also, a lot of people appear to be equating non binary and gender fluid. The latter is as least feasible because gender nonconformity has been a thing for a long time. But I have no idea what Non-Binary means.

Ignoring Intersex, there are only two sexes and therefore by definition only two genders. So what the hell is Non-Binary?

Monday, February 19, 2024

Presidential Rankings

The results of the 2024 Presidential Greatness Project Expert Survey are in. The top five presidents are:

#1 - Abraham Lincoln at 93.87

#2 - Franklyn Roosevelt at 90.83

#3 - George Washington at 90.32

#4 - Theodore Roosevelt at 78.58

#5 - Thomas Jefferson at 77.53

I'm always surprised that Thomas Jefferson doesn't come in higher. The man got us a great deal on the Louisiana Purchase didn't he?

As for the most recent presidents.

#7 - Barack Obama at 73.8

#12 - Bill Clinton at 66.42

#14 - Joe Biden at 62.66

#32 - George W. Bush at 40.43

#45 - Donald Trump at 10.92

Yup, the Donald came in dead last even falling behind James Buchannan at 16.71 which is quite an accomplishment considering Buchannan sat around playing with his dick while the country deteriorated into civil war.

I'm not sure why Obama is ahead of Eisenhower at #8  and I don't get Biden at #14 either. Is he really better then Woodrow Wilson at #15 and Ronald Reagan at #16?  Jimmy Carter at #22 surprises me as well. Did I miss something during Carter's presidency? 

Anyway, this is this years list from the "experts."

Tuesday, February 06, 2024

Hidden Forms of Discrimination?

Both the Civil Rights movement of the 1960s and the feminist movement of the 1970s were enormous successes. Let's face it, these movements were necessary because if they hadn't occurred then nothing would have changed.

But what both movements discovered was that equal opportunity does not necessarily translate into equal success. This realization led to the development of Critical Race Theory and a lot of feminist whining about "the patriarchy."

Once each movement had addressed the visible forms of discrimination, yet still didn't achieve what they consider parity, they concluded that there must be subtle, invisible forms of discrimination at work. Blacks developed the concept of "Systemic Racism" and feminists came up with "the patriarchy." Republicans, not to be undone, come up with the "deep state." 

Notice that no one thought to look for natural differences to explain the discrepancies. Everyone immediately assumed it was some outside force working against them.

Blacks score about 10-15 points lower on IQ tests than whites. Hispanics are somewhere in between and East Asians and Ashkenazi score about five points higher than whites. No one knows why this is the case and I'm not sure that anyone really understands what IQ measures but we do know that it is a good predictor of life and academic success.

This discrepancy has persisted for decades and probably isn't going away anytime soon. Even if this discrepancy didn't exist, whites have such a huge historical advantage that it's not surprising that blacks aren't achieving parity. There is no need for any hidden discrimination in the form of "Systemic Racism."

So what about women? Women have two problems when competing with men. One is fairly well accepted and the other more controversial. The first is that men are more aggressive. If one chooses a male and a female at random there is about a 60% chance that the male is more aggressive. But at the extremes, the overwhelming majority of the most aggressive individuals are male.

Trust me, no one becomes CEO of a Fortune 500 Company without being very, very aggressive. This also accounts for the so-called "gender pay gap." Men work longer hours and take on more dangerous and higher paying jobs and that's why there's a pay difference.

The second and far more controversial problem is the claim that men and women have slightly differently shaped IQ curves. The curve for women is slightly taller and narrower while the curve for men is slightly wider and flatter. 

In the average the differences are meaningless but at the extremes they become significant. As one psychologist described it the shape of the men's curve, assuming it really is that way, would mean more dumbbells but also more Nobels.

I don't hear feminists whining about men winning most of the Darwin Awards but they do complain about men dominating the CEO positions and Nobel prizes.

So, I lean toward rejecting the existence of hidden forces and suspect it's just the ways things are. This is why I reject the whole concept of DEI. Equity is not a reasonable objective if there are natural differences and variations.

Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Trump Wins New Hampshire

Trump won New Hampshire but not by that big a margin. Nikki Haley came in second and Ron DeSantis has now dropped out.

Unless he is kidnapped by space aliens Trump will be the GOP nominee. Can you still run for president if you're in jail?

Trump's strategy has always been to delay the various criminal trials that he's facing until after the 2024 election and that strategy appears to be working.

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Trump Wins Iowa

 Well, Trump had an overwhelming victory in the Iowa caucuses. No real surprise there.

His opposition for the GOP nomination is down to Nikki Halley and Ron DeSantis. Anyone want to take bets on their chances of heading him off?

Trump's Chances in 2024

Too many people seem to think that Trump's chances are uphill in the 2024 election but I disagree.

Writing Trump off is being too rational and logical. In a sane world I would agree 100%. Unfortunately I’m not sure that we live in a sane world at the moment. 

I have three concerns that lead me to doubt the battle is that uphill. 

The first is that perceptions mean more than reality and far too many people seem to believe that the economy is in worse shape than it is. The media isn’t helping here by constantly pounding the drum of doom for no reason. 

The second is that the southern border is a disaster and refugees being shipped all over the country is a failure in leadership. The federal government should be stepping up to help alleviate the crises in New York and Chicago. How it should do that is beyond my pay grade but that’s why they get the big bucks. 

The third is that Democrats are so talented at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. It seems every day there is a news story about a Democrat or Democratic led city doing something that is almost guaranteed to piss people off. Examples include: 

* The mayor of Boston giving a persons of color only Christmas gathering. 

* The mayor of Chicago saying that reparations are the way to fight crime. 

* AOC excusing flash mobs looting stores by saying they’re trying to feed their families. 

* Pittsburgh paying a California firm $50k to show teachers why math is racist and how to take “white supremacy” out of the math classroom. 

This type of stuff appeals to emptions and emotions are often what determines elections. Luckily the memory of the electorate is short so these things should be soon forgotten but they keep doing stuff like this.

Modern Cost of Home Alone Groceries

 During the Christmas season a number of places were comparing the cost of Kevin's shopping spree in "Home Alone" to current prices and coming up with some really big numbers. The Daily Mail came up with $68.99 for Kevin's $20 worth of items in 1990 which sounded a bit high to me.

I checked with Stop & Shop online in New Jersey and the total came out to $46.41. Of course one of the variables is size which isn't specified for all items. I included 8 rolls of toilet paper, 45.5 ounces of laundry detergent, 60 dryer sheets and a pack of 50 army men. If we go to 105 oz of detergent and 120 dryer sheets it goes up to $54.86 but I don't think the detergent was that big or he had 8 rolls of toilet paper. 

The other side of the coin is that median household income in 1990 was $30,636. In 2022 it was $74,580 which represented a drop due to Covid because in 2020 it was $76,330. 

 I will also say that Stop & Shop online is typically more expensive for non perishable items such as laundry detergent and toilet paper than say Walmart. The 8 rolls of toilet paper was $8.59 but I can get 9 rolls of the same brand at Walmart for $6.36. The 105 oz laundry detergent was $9.48 at Walmart rather than $10.24. The 120 dryer sheets were $4.92 rather than $5.99. So buying the paper goods and detergent at Walmart in even the larger sizes would only be $50.88 or an increase of 2.56 times. 

And the really good news is if you spend $35 Walmart delivers, for free, right to your door. So the prices increased between 2.34 times and 2.77 times according to the numbers I found and median household income increased by about 2.43 times. So this seems pretty close to right especially since I don't think Kevin bought the larger sizes. 

 An increase to $68.99 would be a big issue because that would be an increase of 3.48 times compared to a household median income increase of 2.43 times. My advice to the Daily Mail is find a new place to shop.

Tuesday, December 19, 2023

Trump on Immigration

 Trump has been attacking immigration recently at his rallies and implying that immigrants are "poisoning" American society.

This is of course causing howls of fascism and claims that he is using the precise language of Hitler in Mein Kampf.

That is essentially using Level 1 of Graham's Hierarchy of Argument. People are calling him a fascist and comparing him to Hitler. That's just "Name-Calling." That's appropriate for toddlers in the playground but not for political commentary. I think we need to move up the hierarchy and address the claim itself. In 2023, in the US, are immigrants having a positive or a negative effect? Are some immigrants having a positive effect and others a negative one? I honestly don't know although every immigrant that I've encountered recently seems to be having a positive effect. 

This is not the first time in American history that there have been people that were anti-immigrant. Refer to the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882. So, rather than attacking the guy who said it how about we address the claims being made? I know very little about immigration policy so I don't feel qualified to evaluate the question. I could be wrong but I suspect the quote from Mein Kampf people are mostly referring to is as follows: 

"What history taught us about the policy followed by the House of Habsburg was corroborated by our own everyday experiences. In the north and in the south the poison of foreign races was eating into the body of our people, and even Vienna was steadily becoming more and more a non-German city." 

 Hitler uses "poison" or its derivatives fully 56 times in Mein Kampf. He accuses anyone he doesn't like, including Jews, political opponents (Socialist and Marxist), writers, actors and intellectuals in general of poisoning either the German people, German society, the German government or the German military. 

 Hitler was an equal opportunity hater. But that doesn't automatically mean everything he said was wrong. 

Historically he was right about the House of Habsburg in Austria-Hungary although he was talking about an empire with essentially conquered peoples rather than immigrants so I don't really think it applies. The polyglot empire was doomed to fail because it couldn't balance all of the competing political and cultural agendas. 

After WW I it was dismembered into multiple countries along ethnic lines.

Wednesday, December 06, 2023

Why Amazon Rules

One of my smoke detectors started acting up. It was sounding three low chirps about every minute. I knew that wasn't low battery because that's one chirp.

I knew it wasn't a carbon dioxide warning because that's four really loud beeps repeatedly and smoke was three really loud beeps repeatedly. Besides there was no smoke.

I took it down, dusted it off and changed the batteries just in case. It was OK for about three days and then did it again at about 3 AM. I took the thing down and took out the batteries to shut it up.

The next day I pulled up the manual and found, buried near the end, that three low chirps every minute is an end of life warning.

Great, the detector I had was a First Alert, battery operated, CO and smoke detector that screwed into a ceiling mount. What I really wanted was the exact same detector so I could screw the new detector into the existing mount.

On to Amazon. I typed in First Alert and the model number into the search function and, as is usual with Amazon, I got a page of options. However one of them was marked "You Bought this Last in 2016." 

The problem of finding a compatible detector was immediately solved AND they delivered it that afternoon. I didn't even remember that I had bought it on Amazon.

But, Amazon knows all. All hail the great god Amazon.


Friday, November 17, 2023

Gallup's Poll on Transgender Athletes

 Gallup has released a poll done in May of 2023 that reports that 69% of Americans hold the opinion that "birth gender" should dictate sports participation. I assume what they actually mean is birth sex.

This is up 7% from 2021. This doesn't surprise me given the number of cases of trans athletes dominating female competition.

More Democrats are starting to get the message as now they agree with everyone else by a slim 48%-47% margin. In 2021 it was 55%-41% in favor of athletes competing in sports based upon their gender identity.

This strikes me as a no brainer. We segregate based upon sex and not gender. Athletes that have gone through puberty as a male should not be competing against athletes that went through puberty as a female.

Thursday, November 16, 2023

That 75 Year Number

When discussing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict people keep throwing around 75 years. While that may mark the birth of the state of Israel it's not really accurate.

75 years would be 1948 and the war of 1948 in which an Arab coalition attempted to destroy the newly declared nation of Israel. Now it doesn't matter whether one believes that war was justified or not. What matters is who controlled what at the end of it. 

The UN had voted to kick the British out (see Mandate for Palestine) and partition Palestine into an Arab state and a Jewish state. That plan fell apart pretty quickly as the Arabs rejected the plan and the Jews declared the existence of the state of Israel. What was a Palestine civil war spread as Egypt, Jordan and Syria joined the conflict. 

Once the war ended Jordan controlled the West Bank, Egypt controlled Gaza and Israel controlled everything else. 

Jordan annexed the West Bank in 1950. Egypt set up a puppet Palestinian government in Gaza which never really had any authority. Things remained that way until 1967. 

 In 1956 the Egyptians nationalized the Suez Canal because, why not, it's on their territory. They also closed the Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping. This led to an invasion of Egypt by British, French and Israeli forces which captured the canal. After both the Soviet Union and the United States expressed opposition to the invasion the British, French and Israeli forces withdrew essentially with their tails between their legs. 

In 1967, Egypt again closed the Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping despite warnings from Israel that this would be viewed as a casus belli. The resulting war saw Israel capture the West Bank from Jordan, Gaza from Egypt and the Golan Heights from Syria. 

Jordan relinquished all claims to the West Bank in 1988 and recognized the Palestine Liberation Organization as "the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people." 

Israel annexed East Jerusalem in 1980 and the Golan Heights in 1981. In 2005 Israel withdrew from Gaza and Northern Samaria. 

The West Bank is currently divided into three zones A, B and C. Zone A (18%) is administered by the Palestinian Authority. Zone B (22%) is administered by the Palestinian Authority but with joint Israeli security control. Zone C (60%) is administered by Israel, contains all of the Israeli settlements and divides Zones A and B into hundreds of separate areas.

The Israeli-Gaza War Continues

The Israelis have invaded northern Gaza and continue to use airstrikes against targets. The casualty are rising and reportedly have exceeded 11,000.

This is urban warfare and civilians are caught in the crossfire. It's also the type of war where it's difficult to tell the difference between Hamas fighters and civilians. In other words it's a mess.

Two incidents stand out in particular.

The first was a bombing by Israel of a refugee camp where a Hamas senior commander was reported to be located. The attack killed about 50 people and the last I heard it was unclear whether the senior commander was killed.

The other is actions around the Al Shifa hospital which is Gaza's largest hospital. This is the stuff nightmares are made of. The hospital has no power and almost no supplies. Newborn premies are dying because there is no electricity to run their incubators.

There has been fighting near the hospital and the Israelis have entered the hospital grounds in search of Hamas fighters, weapons caches and tunnels. The IDF has claimed they have located a tunnel, a vehicle with weapons and the body of one of the Israeli hostages.

The hospital has effectively been occupied by the IDF and isolated from the outside world. This means that every day that goes by will result in the death of more patient including babies.

Israel is walking a fine line here. Two wrongs don't make a right and you can't avenge an atrocity by committing another atrocity or at least hopefully we're better than that.

Now I'm going to capture some history here for future reference.

The Palestinians have had Gaza since 2005. They have had total autonomy. Instead of focusing on building a decent life for themselves they voted to give Hamas control and Hamas has used Gaza as a staging ground for attacks against Israel. 

This has led to a blockade of Gaza by both Israel and Egypt and hardships for the people living there.

 Jordan controlled the West Bank from 1948 until 1967. They could have established a Palestinian state. Instead they decided to annex the territory in 1950. Jordan renounced claims to the West Bank in 1988 recognizing the PLO as "the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people." Of course they lost control of the West Bank to Israel in 1967. 

 Egypt controlled Gaza from 1948 to 1967 and set up a puppet Palestinian government which never really had any political power. Egypt could have established a Palestinian state but chose not to. Israel took Gaza from Egypt in 1967 and withdrew in 2005.