The Midterm Stretch

Well, here we go, less than a month to the midterms.

The polls say the Dems are going to have a big night but I'm not so sure. Hating Trump and not voting Republican are two different things.

I'm going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some in out from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 185, Tossups - 24

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 45, Tossups - 9

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, IA, ME

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.2%, Paxton (R) - 45.4%

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 49.0%, Paxton (R) - 45.5%

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 65%, Paxton (R) - 37%

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 47.8%, Rogers (R) - 44.2%

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1%, Rogers (R) - 44.4%

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 73%, Rogers (R) - 28%

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 51.7%, Blakeman (R) - 40.3%

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 52.7%, Blakeman (R) - 39.9%

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 96%, Blakeman (R) - 4%