College Football Playoff I

I've decide to have some fun.

It's the 12 team playoff format.

First round

Friday, Dec. 20

No. 7 Notre Dame 27, No. 10 Indiana 17

Saturday, Dec. 21

No. 11 SMU 10 No. 6 Penn State 38

No. 12 Clemson 24 No. 5 Texas 38

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State | 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN

Quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Penn State (Fiesta Bowl) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Wednesday, Jan. 1

No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Texas (Peach Bowl) | 1 p.m. | ESPN

No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State/No. 9 Tennessee winner (Rose Bowl) | 5 p.m. | ESPN

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (Sugar Bowl) | 8:45 p.m. | ESPN

Semifinals

Thursday, Jan. 9

TBD vs. TBD (Orange Bowl) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Friday, Jan. 10

TBD vs. TBD (Cotton Bowl) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

National Championship

TBD vs. TBD (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Drone Fest

I saw a drone up in the air. A little drone that wasn't there. It wasn't there again today. Oh how I'd wish it'd go away.

People have been reporting drone sightings over New Jersey for several weeks now but recently things seem to be getting out of control. The number of sightings has skyrocketed and sightings are now being reported in New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania. There have even been reports in Massachusetts and New Hampshire.

I saw four sets of three lights in the sky coming back from my daughter's house last Sunday night along Route 80 in Morris County. They weren't airplanes because there was also an airplane flying by and the differe4nce was obvious. Warning lights on top of electrical towers or communications towers? Perhaps, but those lights typically blink and these lights weren't blinking.

So who knows?

The federal government isn't helping much. They keep saying things like "there is no evidence that there's any threat," OK, but there's no evidence that they're not a threat either other than nothing has happened yet. I did hear a report that an airport in New York had to shut down because of drones in its airspace.

I don't think this is mass hysteria although the majority of sightings are probably aircraft, stars or warning lights. Too many of the reports are coming from people, police, EMT and military, that I would tend to believe.

The United Healthcare CEO Assassination II

Well, they arrested someone who they claim is the shooter.

He's a 27 year old from Maryland by the name of Luigi Mangione. He got off the bus he was on in Altoona Pennsylvania and went into a McDonald's for breakfast. A customer recognized him, tipped off an employee and the employee called the Altoona police.

Mangione was found to be carrying a ghost gun that he 3D printed that appeared to match the gun used in the shooting of Thompson, a suppressor, fake IDs including the one he used at the hostel in New York and a hand written "manifesto" criticizing insurance companies.

The man himself is a mixed bag. He was the valedictorian of a $37k per year private high school and then attended the University of Pennsylvania. His facebook page shows an x-ray of his back with three pins in it. The injury was apparently the result of a surfing accident. How the injury relates to the possible shooting of Brian Thompson is unclear.

It also seems that his family is in the nursing home business and has less than a sterling reputation. I'm not going into details on that because they make me squeamish.

He's been arraigned on gun charges in Pennsylvania and is currently fighting extradition to New York but I'll be shocked if he's not on the way to New York very shortly.

The New York police claim to have matched his fingerprints to fingerprints on a burner phone they found in an alley near the shooting and the gun to the shell casings.

The reaction has been "mixed." Actually that's a lie. Most people seem pissed and are lining up behind Mangione. He has a lawyer and reportedly people have offered to pay his legal bills. The McDonald's where he was arrested has been inundated with negative reviews. A typical one saying something along the line of "Don't eat here, they have rats in the kitchen."

There's a long way to go on this and we shall see what we shall see.

Medicare for All, My Idea

The killing of the United Healthcare CEO has brought American's frustration with our insane healthcare system into the open. People are expressing indifference to the murder and in some cases actually applauding it.

Perhaps the time has come to push for Medicare for All. Here's my proposal.

Get rid of the insurance vultures and extend Medicare coverage to everyone. Yes, it would cost about $3 trillion annually but we're halfway there already paying about $800 billion for Medicare and $600 billion for Medicaid. 

Companies and employees are paying exorbitant prices for health insurance, about $8,500 for single coverage and $24,000 for family coverage. Institute a payroll tax of $12,000 paid for 80% by the employer and 20% by the employee or about $2,400 per employee (this could be adjusted up or down based upon income) and $9,600 (this could also be adjusted up or down based upon employee salary) per employee by the employer. 

This would probably save the employer money and generate $1.6 trillion in revenue because there are 134 million employees nationally. 

Medicare Parts B&D will be $185 per month in 2025 or $2,220 so $2,400 is not unreasonable for folks still working. I'll be paying an IRMAA of $74 and $17 on top of the $185. That's a total of $276 or $3,312 for Medicare in 2025 so the numbers have room for adjustment once salary is taken into account.

I'm not sure why companies aren't clamoring for something like this because I suspect that it would be more cost effective than our current system by a lot. Of course we would also have to work dental coverage into this but I'm sure the country that landed people on the moon could figure it out.

Now the only problem would be that our medical infrastructure may not be able to handle the extra demand. Well, time to start training more NPs and PAs and give them more responsibility. More MDs wouldn't hurt either.

Again with Palestine being Arab Land

 No, Western diplomats did not create the state of Israel. 

The United Nations Special Committee on Palestine (UNSCOP) studied the issue in 1947 when Britain announced its intention to terminate the Mandate for Palestine and withdraw from the area. They recommended partition. This plan was accepted by the Jews but rejected by the Arabs for a number of understandable reasons. The partition was never implemented. Civil war broke out in 1947 between Arab and Jewish militias while the British, whose obligation it was to keep the peace, basically did nothing. The British withdrew on May 15th 1948 and Israel declared its existence on the same day. The Arab League invaded and the 1948 war began.

When did this become "Palestinian land?" Palestine was under the control of the British in 1948 based upon the Mandate for Palestine. Prior to that Palestine was part of the Ottoman Empire. At no time was Palestine under the political control of the Palestinian Arabs. 

The legal basis for the claim that Palestine was supposed to be an Arab state was a series of letters between Sharif Husayn of Mecca and Sir Henry McMahon in which agreement was reached about Arab aid against the Ottoman Empire in exchange for British recognition of an independent Arab state. But there was some confusion about the boundaries of the Arab state. In a letter dated July 14th, 1915 Sharif Husayn laid out the Arab conditions including the anticipated boundaries of the Arab state.

"Firstly.- England will acknowledge the independence of the Arab countries, bounded on the north by Mersina and Adana up to the 37th degree of latitude, on which degree fall Birijik, Urfa, Mardin, Midiat, Jezirat (Ibn 'Umar), Amadia, up to the border of Persia; on the east by the borders of Persia up to the Gulf of Basra; on the south by the Indian Ocean, with the exception of the position of Aden to remain as it is; on the west by the Red Sea, the Mediterranean Sea up to Mersina. England to approve the proclamation of an Arab Khalifate of Islam."

However McMahon placed some limits in a letter dated October 24th, 1915.

"The two districts of Mersina and Alexandretta and portions of Syria lying to the west of the districts of Damascus, Homs, Hama and Aleppo cannot be said to be purely Arab, and should be excluded from the limits demanded."

As late as 1939 Palestinian Arab representatives and the British were arguing as to whether Palestine was included in the "portions of Syria lying to the west of the districts of Damascus, Homs, Hama and Aleppo." Of course the British won the argument.

A partition of Palestine was first recommended by the British Peel Commission of 1936-1937. The recommendation would have created a small Jewish state in the northwest and then merge the remaining Arab areas with Jordon to create an Arab state. The idea was rejected by the Palestinian Arabs because they believed they were promised an independent state and not one to be controlled by the Hashemite dynasty. The British Woodhead Commission found the partition plan impractical anyway because it would involve too much population displacement.

Then WW 2 interrupted and the British finally announced their intention to terminate the Mandate in 1947 because they considered the terms of the Mandate to be irreconcilable. The UN took over the problem and created the United Nations Special Committee on Palestine (UNSCOP) in May 1947 in response to a British government request that the General Assembly "make recommendations under article 10 of the Charter, concerning the future government of Palestine".

The UnitedHealthcare CEO Assassination

I have to call it an assassination because that's what it was. The guy waited for CEO Brian Thompson to appear, stepped out and popped him three times. Then he hopped on a Citi Bike and disappeared into Central Park.

On the shell casing were written "deny," "defend'" and "depose." This is perhaps a reference to the book titled "Delay, Deny, Defend: Why Insurance Companies Don't Pay Claims and What You Can Do About It."

Reportedly the killer arrived on a bus from Atlanta, but where he got on the bus is unclear, and it seems he left the same way.

The best picture is of the guy flirting with a clerk at the hostel where he stayed. He looks white, young and pretty calm and collected considering his intentions.

The reaction on the internet has been less than sympathetic to Thompson. UnitedHealthcare (UHC) has a bad reputation for denying claims. It reportedly denies 32% of claims when the industry average is typically between 5% and 10%. 

Thompson was also under investigation for insider trading so you'll excuse me if this doesn't sound like a real good guy. Whether he deserved to get gunned down in the streets of New York City is debatable however.

The gun resembles a B&T VP9 which sells for around $5,700. Not a choice of the casual gun owner. I just heard that police thinks it may be a B&T Station Six-9 Suppressed Pistol which is a modern version of the VP9. This puppy sells for $2,284.

Trump's Campaign Promises and Proposed Policies

Trump tells people what he thinks they want to hear even if he knows damn well that he can't produce on his promises and he's laughing at all the fools that believe him. Here's a tip,  if his lips are moving and he's making sounds then he's probably lying. 

How many times are people going to be fooled by this charlatan?

He's not going to secure the border or engage in mass deportations because it would cost Republican donors too much money. The most he'll do is put on a big show and then declare victory. 

The obvious solution to the southern border is to make the penalties for hiring illegal immigrants really stiff and then enforce the laws against hiring them. If there are no jobs here then there's no reason to come. Why don't Republicans (or Democrats) propose this? Who do you think is employing all of these illegal immigrants at wages way below what Americans get paid? It's the big donors to both parties. Pulling these workers out, and preventing more from coming, would drive prices on food and other basic items through the roof and throw the economy into a recession.

If the police, who are qualified to round up criminals, can't do it effectively, then how is Trump going to do it? The military doesn't have the expertise. 

If you eliminate taxes on tips and overtime, without replacing those taxes with something else, it will increase the debt even more. 

If you cut taxes on Social Security, without replacing that revenue, then the Social Security trust fund will run dry even sooner. 

Trump couldn't care less about the trafficking of migrant children but even if he did, if authorities like Interpol, the FBI and other law enforcement organizations, with expertise in trafficking, can't stop it what is Trump going to do to stop it? 

Finally, the president has no authority over whether or not trans women compete in female sports.

Removing harmful chemicals from our food would be nice if the guy he nominated for HHS had any clue about what's harmful and what's not. Actually, I would settle for him being able to read food labels which apparently he can't. Besides, that would also cost Republican donors lots of money so I wouldn't hold my breath.

Now, for policies that's he's talking about that I'm most concerned about. 

How about the idea of "denaturalization" of American citizens? 

The policy of eliminating the DoE which is what pays for special programs for autistic children and other children with learning issues. 

The idea of cutting the ACA/Medicaid without replacing it with anything. 

The threat of firing thousands of civil service employees in the name of "efficiency," at the suggestion of two guys who have no idea what the government actually does, and either not replacing them or replacing them with political stooges. 

The policy of extending the 2017 tax cuts which benefitted billionaires while increasing the national debt by $6 trillion. 

Making Tulsi Gabbard head of intelligence which is such a bad idea that our allies are threatening to stop sharing intelligence with us. 

One more, how could anyone with at least half a brain have nominated Matt Gaetz for Attorney General? At least Gaetz dropped out but we still have a vaccine denier, who can't read food labels, nominated for the head of Health and Human Services.

How can Anyone Vote for Trump?

I'm hardly elite. I grew up in a housing project in the Bronx. The only reason I have a degree is that City University was tuition free in my day.

But I do have self respect. My Greatest Generation parents and neighbors beat that into me, sometimes literally, while I was growing up.

What I do not understand is how anyone with an ounce of self respect can vote for a man like Trump. He's a convicted felon; he stole classified documents; has repeatedly shown disdain for the law; is probably guilty of sexual assault and thinks it's OK to consistently stiff small contractors.

On top of that he raised the debt by something like $6 trillion with his tax cuts; totally dropped the ball on Covid; will not only drive inflation through the roof but probably cause a recession with his tariffs and lies whenever his lips are moving. 

He also ignores the obvious solution to the southern border, make the penalties for hiring illegals REALLY stiff and then enforce the laws against hiring them. I guarantee you the flood at the border will become a trickle. Why not do this? Simple, because Republican donors are the ones making billions of dollars hiring illegal workers. That's also why his "mass deportations" will be a sham.

What the hell is wrong with you people? How many times are you going to be fooled by this charlatan?

Mass Deportations

What do I think about the prospect of mass deportations? 

I don't think they're going to happen any more than a border wall got built. Despite all the bruhaha it sounds like what Trumps intends to do is (a) declare a national emergency, (b) divert funds from the defense budget which the national emergency allows him to do and (c) deploy troops to patrol the southern border and possible construct facilities to house the illegals that they're going to catch.

After a couple of months of this Trump will deport those caught trying to cross the border, declare victory and move on. I'd be very surprised if there is any significant effort to round up illegals already in the country for deportation except in very specific cases such as some reported gangs.

The bottom line is that deporting large numbers of illegals is impractical, would probably lead to a recession and just isn't worth the money.

Of course I could be wrong but I suppose that we shall see what we shall see.

One Down and a Few to Go

Matt Gaetz has withdrawn from consideration for Attorney General and been replace by Florida AG Pam Bondi. The book on Bondi is that she's a "true Trump believer" but also believes in the rule of law. I suspect she's about to find out that these are contradictory positions.

In the meantime Pete Hegsmith looks to be in a bit of trouble as well as leaks about into his sexual assault allegations are floating around.

A Government by Billionaires for Billionaires

 Democrats are complaining that Trump is creating a government by billionaires for billionaires.

I say and this is different from previous governments how?

The Democrats could have undone the Trump tax cuts...but they didn't.

The Democrats could have restored the SALT deductions...but they didn't.

The Democrats could have undone Trump's tariffs...but they didn't. In fact Biden increased tariffs on China.

Either party could have addressed Social Security...but they didn't. In fact the last time the SS trust fund was going to be exhausted in 1983 congress waited until a month before it hit $0 before it did anything.

Either party could have added vision and dental to Medicare...but they didn't.

Either party could have allowed Medicare to negotiate the price of all drugs rather than simply the 10 they allowed...but they didn't.

Either party could have seriously begun investigating Universal Healthcare...but they didn't.

Either party could have established a rational minimum wage...but they didn't.

Honestly, I don't see much of a difference between the two parties when it comes to caring for the people who get up every day, go to work and keep the place running. Maybe we need a fucking general strike to remind them who pays their salaries.

Why I don't Like DEI

DEI means hiring someone based upon race or gender even if they are less qualified. The problem with DEI is that not all pools of talent are equal. Something like 90% of engineers are male. If a company decided that, because of DEI, they needed to hire 50% male and 50% female engineers there is no way that the 50% female engineers would be at the same quality as the 50% male engineers simply because the pool to chose from is much smaller. Same thing with nurses but the genders are reversed. Think about how boring the NFL would be if only 13% of the players were black.

If you're arguing that diverse representation makes sense in some cases then are there cases where not having diverse representation makes sense? My town is 90% white and 10% Asian. Should we be hiring only white and Asian police and teachers? If you're claiming that in some situations only a black person can understand other black people then wouldn't the same be true for white, Asian and Hispanic people?

DEI does more harm than good. We shouldn't be putting less qualified people in important positions simply because of their race or gender. Worse is that things like DEI and Affirmative Action lead to resentment and backlash.

How Social Security Works

Every once in a while I read comments by people about Social Security and I am appalled at the confusion about how Social Security works. 

It was never intended to work like a 401K where the money is put into a dedicated account. Social Security is a payroll tax levied on both the employer and employee. The money goes toward paying current Social Security benefits. Any excess funds (positive cash flow) go into a dedicated trust fund which is invested in Special Issue Treasury Bonds (effectively government IOUs) with a variable interest rate based upon the going bond rate. It's invested in Treasury Bonds because that is considered the safest type of investment.

If not enough money is collected in payroll taxes to pay current obligations (negative cash flow) then bonds are cashed in to make up the difference. Once the trust fund is exhausted then benefits must be cut since money from the general fund can't be used to fund Social Security without a change to the law.

From time to time the Social Security cash flow needs to be adjusted due to changing demographics either by reducing outlays, increasing receipts or some combination of the two. This is not a big surprise. Everyone knew this was a requirement. The last time the cash flow was adjusted was in 1983 when both the retirement age and payroll taxes were increased. Congress waited until a month before the trust fund was exhausted before it did anything.

Social Security had a positive cash flow until 2020 so the trust fund was growing. In 2020 the trust fund held $2.9 trillion. Since then Social Security has been selling bonds to meet its payment obligations. At the end of 2023 the trust fund held a little under $2.8 trillion. The latest Trustee Report estimates that the trust fund will be exhausted in 2036.

Any bill that either increases benefits or cuts revenue would bring that date in closer which is what Roy is acknowledging here. Trump's idea of eliminating  income taxes on Social Security benefits, while it would help many people, would also reduce Social Security revenues and exhaust the trust fund sooner because those taxes also go into the trust fund.

So here's the deal. Nobody "stole" from Social Security. The money is invested in Treasury Bonds which pay interest. It's like someone buying a CD. They're effectively lending the bank money and the bank pays them interest. Whether Social Security could get a better rate of return is a point of contention. But it probably couldn't without more risk as rate of return and increased risk tend to go together,

Trump's Cabinet and Other Key Picks

 I'm not going to go through all of his announced selections but just the more interesting ones.

White House chief of staff: Susie Wiles - I suppose he figures that if she could get him elected then she can keep his staff toeing the line and doing nothing but sing little Donnie's praises. Good luck with that lady. Senate confirmation is not required for this role.

Secretary of state: Marco Rubio - Not a bad pick considering he's a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee. However, I just wonder if he lacks the flexibility that he might need as top diplomat.

Attorney general: Matt Gaetz - This is a complete joke. Gaetz should be under investigation by the DOJ and not leading it. This is a nominee that the senate should reject. Unfortunately I doubt there are enough Republicans that care enough about the country to make it happen.

HHS secretary: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - This is another complete joke that should be rejected by the senate. Kennedy has no background in health administration and espouses long debunked conspiracy theories about vaccines. I don't disagree with some of his ideas about processed foods but in general his opinions are loony tunes if not downright dangerous.

U.N. ambassador: Elise Stefanik - I thought that this was a horrible idea until I heard some of the other proposals. I could probably live with this as the UN is rapidly becoming totally ineffective anyway.

"Border czar": Tom Homan - This guy is a former ICE Director and appears to be all for Trump's mass deportation idea. Good luck getting the funding from Congress Tom. I expect the deportation effort to be significantly less than "mass" and quietly peter out within a year and a half. Senate confirmation is not required for this role.

Defense secretary: Pete Hegseth - Another selection who's qualifications appear to be highly suspect but I don't know enough about the guy to take a strong position either way. What I've been hearing isn't terribly encouraging though.

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem - She's the current governor of South Dakota and Trump claims that she's "very strong on border security." That's a pretty good trick considering that South Dakota doesn't have any foreign borders. On the other hand if she can handle being a governor then I'm sure she can manage Homeland Security.

Director of national intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard - This pick may be even worse than the Gaetz and Kennedy picks. Gabbard has zero credentials in intelligence and many of her ideas about how the world works are iffy if not downright delusional. If there is only one nomination that the senate rejects it should be this one.

 U.S. ambassador to Israel: Mike Huckabee - The best part about this pick is that it will get Huckabee out of the country. The Israelis must be laughing themselves silly.

Department of Government Efficiency: Elon Musk & Vivek Ramaswamy - Or DOGE, the same as the crypto currency that Musk pushes. I expect this to be a joke with clown 1 and clown 2 doing a lot of pontificating but accomplishing very little. I'm pretty sure that no senate confirmation is required here.

That's it; I'm tired of playing this game. Trump seems more interested in not having someone disagree with him than actually accomplishing anything. But, you never know. I suppose that we shall see what we shall see.

One Good Thing

Kari Lake lost the senate race in Arizona. That is one good thing that came out of this election.

May we never hear from that crazy again.

Does Gen Z Have it Tougher than We Did?

 The short answer is yes, I think they certainly have it harder than us Boomers had it. Part of that is beyond their control and part of it is being seduced by Madison Avenue.

The minefield was certainly less dense back in my day. 

I graduated college in 1969 from the City University of New York. It was tuition free and I lived with my parents and commuted until I graduated so no student debt. 

I had a $300 1961 Mercury Comet that my dad gave me so no car loan. He replaced the Comet with a $150 Ford Fairlane. 

There were no charge cards so no charge card debt. 

There was no internet, cable TV or cell phones so these expenses just didn't exist. 

Air fares were regulated so no one but the rich could afford to fly regularly. That meant that most vacations were pretty much limited to where you could get to by car. 

With no internet there was no online shopping with all the potential pitfalls that come with that. Plus, every decent company provided good health insurance AND a real life pension.

As I've pointed out previously, tuition has significantly outpaced inflation and so have home prices while median salary has fallen short of keeping up with inflation.

The average price of a new car in 1980 was $7,500. Today it's $48,400. Just judging by inflation one would expect it to be $28,500. 

On the plus the interest rates on the huge mortgages and car loans that you need are lower. But there are predatory lenders out there that are happy to take advantage of someone with a low credit rating.

So I think overall it's safe to say that things are harder but not impossible. Everyone starts out with little and has to work their way up. But it might take longer for the current generation than it took for us.

Why Did Trump Win?

Trump won because the Republicans read the room better than the Democrats.

Most Americans want a stable and secure economy and a safe environment. Notice that the GOP very effectively implied that those two desires were in imminent danger. That's why they won.

I don't want to argue about whether the economy is bad or whether illegal immigrants are causing a massive crime wave because the reality almost doesn't matter. What matters is the perception.

The perception is that the economy and crime are a problem and the Republicans played on those perceptions. The Democrats quoted statistics and tried to convince people that what they were seeing at the local supermarket was wrong.

Another issue is the Democrats are perceived as the party of wokeness and we're in the middle of a severe backlash against woke philosophy. It's hard to tell how big a role this played but I'm pretty sure it contributed.

So now what?

It's been my experience that Republicans tend to campaign well but govern poorly. I figure they have two years to try and convince people that voting for them wasn't a big mistake but I'm not sure they can do it.

I suppose we shall see what we shall see.

November 10th, 2024

One more update.

Trump - 312, Harris - 226

Trump leads the popular vote 74.5 million to 70.9 million

Senate: GOP - 52, Dems - 46

Andy Kim has won in New Jersey.

Ted Cruz won easily in Texas.

Kari Lake is losing in Arizona

Bob Casey is losing in Pennsylvania

House: GOP - 212, Dems - 204

The GOP has flipped 6 seats and the Dems 5 so a 1 seat gain so far for the GOP.

Josh Gottheimer has won in NJ5. 

November 6th, 2024, 8 AM Update

 8:00 AM

Trump - 276, Harris - 223

Trump leads the popular vote 71.3 million to 66.2 million

Wisconsin put Trump over the top. Harris picked up New Hampshire.

Senate: GOP - 52, Dems - 41

Andy Kim has won in New Jersey.

Ted Cruz won easily in Texas.

Kari Lake is losing in Arizona

House: GOP - 203, Dems - 178

The GOP has flipped 5 seats and the Dems 2 so a 3 seat gain so far for the GOP.

Josh Gottheimer has won in NJ5.

November 6th, 2024 - Trump Wins

Or at least he's so close to winning as to make no never mind about it. Being Trump he declared victory after winning Pennsylvania rather than waiting to hit 270. Well, I suppose I'm doing the same thing.

4:00 AM

Trump - 266, Harris - 219

Trump leads the popular vote 69.7 million to 64.4 million

Trump has taken Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. He leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Maine 2 and Alaska so it's only a matter of time. We appear to be heading for a 312-226 Trump victory. It also looks as if he might be the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004.

Senate: GOP - 51, Dems - 41

Andy Kim has won in New Jersey.

Ted Cruz won easily in Texas.

Kari Lake is losing in Arizona

House: GOP - 200, Dems - 172

The GOP has flipped 5 seats and the Dems 2 so a 3 seat gain so far for the GOP.

Josh Gottheimer has won in NJ5.

So we're heading towards a worse case scenario beyond which even I predicted. Oh well, I hope the stock market is happy.

Election Night, November 5th, 2024

I'm not going to stay with this very long. I'll take it to around 10 PM and then call it a night.

7:00 PM

Trump - 19, Harris - 3

Senate: GOP - 39, Dems - 28

House: GOP - 5, Dems - 1

8:00 PM

Trump - 90, Harris - 27

Trump's total includes Florida so the idiots that thought that state may have been in play can go and sit in the corner and STFU.

Senate: GOP - 42, Dems - 31

House: GOP - 40, Dems - 20

8:30 PM

Trump - 105, Harris - 30

Trump leads the popular vote 18.8 million to 15.7 million

Senate: GOP - 42, Dems - 33

Andy Kim is ahead by about 160,000 votes.

House: GOP - 54, Dems - 28

Josh Gottheimer is losing by 11,000 votes. That's not good.

9:00 PM

Trump - 154, Harris - 30

Trump leads the popular vote 22.5 million to 18.9 million

Senate: GOP - 42, Dems - 33

Andy Kim is ahead by about 200,000 votes.

House: GOP - 76, Dems - 35

Josh Gottheimer is now winning by 33,000 votes. That's better.

9:30 PM

Trump - 168, Harris - 62

Trump leads the popular vote 30.6 million to 27.6 million

Senate: GOP - 44, Dems - 34

Andy Kim is ahead by about 250,000 votes.

House: GOP - 105, Dems - 66

Josh Gottheimer is ahead by 33,000 votes.

10:00 PM

Trump - 201, Harris - 81

Trump leads the popular vote 38.0 million to 33.7 million

Senate: GOP - 44, Dems - 34

Andy Kim is ahead by about 256,000 votes.

House: GOP - 131, Dems - 84

Josh Gottheimer is ahead by 31,000 votes.

This is it. I'm going to call it a night. I will pick up whenever I wake up in the morning.

Election Day, November 5th, 2024

We voted this morning a little before 9 AM. We just beat a small surge of voters and basically walked right in with no wait. My daughter voted at 6 AM before going to work.

The new voting machines take a while and print out a paper ballot which you have to feed into a collection box. I liked the old machines better. They were faster and easier to use but I suppose these are more secure.

I'm not going to go crazy tonight since, despite what some sites are saying, I don't see this as much of a nail biter. I will probably sign off around 10 PM.

The 2024 Election, November 4, 2024

I figured that I would wait for the eve of the election to post my final pre-election thoughts.

Electoral Vote

Trump -246 (-32), Harris - 276 (-+35), Toss Up - 16 (-3)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 211 (-4), Toss Up - 108 (+4)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287 (-25), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map - No Tossups

Trump -287, Harris - 251, Toss Up - 0

538 Model

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (-25), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

I don't see enough to change my opinion that Trump will win probably with a 287-251 electoral vote victory. Electoral Vote flipped back to Harris but the overestimated Biden in 2020 by quite a lot so I don't see that as significant. 

I added "Polling Map - No Tossups" and it came in at 287-251 as well. The only glimmer of hope that I see for Harris is things slid slightly in her direction but I don't see enough of a change especially given the amount of early voting that has occurred.

Now let's look at the Senate and House for a second. Electoral Vote has the GOP taking the Senate 52-48 and Real Clear Politics has them also winning 52-48. RCP has the GOP ahead in the House 201-192 with 42 tossups.

Medical Issues, October 31, 2024

I'm FREE, FREE I say, FREE!

In other words my ankle is healed and my brace has gone the way of the boot.

Now I need to figure out when to put my house back together. I'm thinking I'm going to wait a while because I still need to rebuild the strength in both legs. Maybe next weekend.

In the meantime It's a beautiful Halloween day and we got zero trick or treaters. We're usually good for about 20 or so. Even during Covid we got a fair number. 

I suppose Trunk or Treat is the new king.

Medical Issues, October 30, 2024

I went to see the thoracic surgeon yesterday to get the results of my CT Scan. Apparently the area that was his biggest concern shrunk in size. It shrunk so much that he thought the Infectious Disease doctor he sent me to last time had given me an antibiotic. 

No, she didn't. Maybe all of the gallons of blood that I choked up after the biopsy had something to do with it. The bottom line is I get another six months of freedom and then I get to do it all over again.

I got my Covid shot today. I had gotten the flu shot two weeks ago. Getting the vaccines is pretty painless. I make an appointment at my local CVS which is five minutes away then I walk in and get the shot pretty much immediately. They don't even make you wait the 15 minutes after the Covid shot any more.

Tomorrow I see the ankle doctor. My ankle feels good and, incredibly, after not having any physical therapy for a week my left leg is also feeling a lot better.

My session with the ankle doctor could go very smooth if he tells me I'm all healed and good to go. If he tells me just about anything else then we're going to have a problem because this brace I'm wearing is beginning to irritate my foot and clearly the physical therapy may have helped the ankle but it's destroying my left leg.

I tried to count the number of different doctors that I've seen in the past year and gave up at 12. That was before I got to the two orthopedic dudes I saw. Getting old sucks but I suppose the alternative is worse. The problem is that may not always be true in the future. Maybe I should go looking for that bridge?

More Thoughts on the 2024 Election

This sounds more and more like 2016 again. The momentum for Trump is definitely there just like it was there in 2016. I check the data on a weekly basis and the shift to Trump has been very clear. 

I was at the early voting site yesterday and the number of voters made it complete chaos. But I saw very few young voters. That's bad. Older voters were out in force and younger voters were no where to be seen.

The voter turnout in 2020 was 66% of voting eligible population (63% of voting age population) and it will probably be about that again. The states that depress voter turnout numbers are actually the red states which rarely get above 60%. This is possibly because red states make it harder to vote. 

Blue states have much higher turnout which is probably why the Democrat candidate wins the popular vote even though they lose the electoral vote. 

The REAL problem though is that 72% of people over 65 vote but only 48% of those between 18 and 24 vote. I'm 76 so trust me on this, if you're young and just starting out building a career and a family you DO NOT want my age group making decisions for you.

So Trump wins and the Republicans probably hold the House and take the Senate. How much damage can they do? They didn't do a lot last time because they're not only bat shit crazy but incompetent. Things that I do expect to happen are:

(1) Trump's 2017 tax cuts will be extended if not made permanent.

(2) We'll get another corporate tax cut and may get another tax cut across the board. If we do then it will drive the debt through the roof because tax cuts never pay for themselves.

(3) As laid out in Project 2025 they resurrect Schedule F which will allow the replacement of many, possibly thousands, of civil servants with political appointees. This will be the most dangerous thing to happen because it removes lots of sanity checks.

(4) Ukraine is probably going to see US support dry up but other countries may step in to fill the void. Hopefully that war will end before too much more damage occurs.

(5) Israel will probably get more support. There may or may not be a crack down on the crazies claiming to be pro-Palestine when they have no idea of what the real issues are in the Middle East.

(6) The GOP will try and fail to get national abortion restrictions enacted but it will be a messy fight.

(7) Religion, especially conservative Protestantism, will get a boost in influence. How long this will last is unclear.

(8) LGBTQ, and especially trans, rights will take some hits. At the very least trans women probably won't be competing in woman's sports any more.

It's going to be an uncomfortable four years but I doubt we'll turn into Nazi Germany.

Early Voting and a Karen in the Wild

Yesterday my oldest daughter was in town. She was driving a borrowed Jeep truck with Texas dealer plates that she had taken from work for a road trip to Virginia. While she was here she decided that she would go to early voting in town. I went with her, not to vote, but just to take a ride in the Jeep truck.

I'm not sure what I expected but not what we found. There were seven places in the county open for early voting and one was in our town community center. Now it was Saturday and I'm sure that had an effect. It was chaos.

There was a line of cars waiting to get into the parking lot which was not only full but had cars parked in illegal spots and others looking for a spot like the mall at Christmas time. To say that the parking area was inadequate would be a gross understatement.

My daughter was a bit nervous about maneuvering the Jeep truck in the tight quarters because she hadn't had the need to do that before.

While we were waiting to get into the lot a woman, complete with a bleached blonde Karen haircut, got out of an Audi in front of us. I didn't think much of it at the time. I figured she was getting out to go vote on foot. Little did I know that this was going to be my first encounter with a Karen in her natural habitat.

We followed the Audi down a row of parked cars in the lot. There were maybe fifteen cars on either side plus a row of cars parked head in at the top of the row with a narrow lane, one car wide, separating the cars at the top of the row from the cars on either side.

The Audi had come to a complete stop, the Karen was standing in a parking space on the top row and another car was in the lane trying to turn into the space. That's when it dawned on me that this woman had gone on foot in search of a parking space to reserve for the Audi. 

We were stuck. The Audi was in front of us and another car was behind us. My daughter got out to see what the hold up was.

The hold up was the Karen was refusing to move out of the space and the woman trying to turn into the space wasn't about to give it up. My daughter, naive child, asked if there was a problem because everyone was stuck. The woman in the car said "there wouldn't be any problem if this one would more her fat ass."

At that my daughter said "I don't need this" and beat a hasty retreat back to the Jeep.

At that point the laughing gods decided they had enough amusement for the day and the following occurred.

(1) The driver of the Audi realized someone was trying to get out from a space on the left so he backed up to let the car back out and then took that space.

(2) The Karen, seeing the Audi get a space, surrendered her prize.

(3) The car in the lane took the space that the Karen was trying to save for the Audi.

(4) A car in the top row also left allowing my daughter to simply drive straight into that spot with no awkward maneuvering required.

Sometimes the gods work in mysterious ways.

There was about an hour wait to vote and my daughter's initial reaction was to leave and come back but I convinced her to get it over with give the lucky break with the spot, because I didn't want to anger the fickle gods by spurning their gift, and she had no idea what it would be like later.

I waited outside with my cane and made lots of new friends. I even saw my dentist but he didn't see me. Since this was Northern New Jersey even with the craziness in the parking lot people just laughed it off. Except for the Karen and the woman she was blocking.

It was pretty crazy. I think the craziness was due to there only being a few early voting spots in the county. The rest of us are planning on going Election Day when each town will have its traditional polling place open. But we're planning on going early just in case.

The 2024 Election, October 27, 2024

OK, I got lazy or depressed or both this week. I'm two days late with this but things haven't changed much.

Electoral Vote

Trump -278 (+22), Harris - 241 (-10), Toss Up - 19 (-12)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -312 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -219 (+1), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (-1)

538 Model

Trump -262 (+16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-27)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-16)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -312 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

If anything the election has shifted more in Trump's direction. Electoral Vote now has him winning with 278 electoral votes.

Godel's Ontological Argument

 All of the ontological arguments are basically word salads attempting to trick the listener into accepting the argument. That makes them about the most dishonest arguments as well. 

As for Godel, his Axioms are a big problem. First of all he never defines what he means by "positive." Some who defend his argument sometimes claim that this doesn't matter but most people disagree. Something that is so central to the argument has to be defined. 

Axiom 1: If property A is positive, and if property A entails property B, then B is positive. 

Why? Does there never exist a trade-off where one "positive" property requires the acceptance of a "negative" one? How about a military tank with light armor which allows it to move quickly but makes it vulnerable to armor piercing shells? 

Axiom 2: If property A is positive, then the property not-A is not positive. So is the property "Red" "positive?" Some people would say so (especially given that Godel never defines "positive), does that make "non-Red" not positive? Or are the property of "Red" and "non-Red" simply neutral? How do we tell if properties are "positive" or simply neutral. 

Axiom 3: The property G is a positive property. (G is the property of being "God-like"; an object with property G has all positive properties) 

This is total gibberish. Define "God-like" and why must someone with this property have all "positive" properties? Is jealousy a positive property? What about vengefulness? 

Axiom 4: If a property is positive, then it is positive in all possible worlds. 

Why? There are probably possible worlds where the property of being a Nazi is considered positive because the Germans won WW II while in most worlds the property of being not-Nazi is positive.

Axiom 5: Necessary existence is a positive property. 

Again, define "necessary existence" and demonstrate that it must be "positive" whatever the hell positive may be.

The 2024 Election, October 18,. 2024

 Well it's Friday and time to get depressed.

Electoral Vote

Trump -256 (+10), Harris - 251 (+4), Toss Up - 31 (-14)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -312 (+10), Harris - 226 (-10), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 94 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -246 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 66 (-27)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -246 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 66 (-27)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -312 (+16), Harris - 226 (-16), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Like I said last week,  I don't even see this being close unless something drastic happens in the next couple of weeks or somehow the polls are all seriously wrong for some reason.

Why Calories Count

I have run into a lot of nonsense recently claiming that calories don't matter in weight management for various reasons. As an engineer I disagree.

A calorie is by definition a unit of energy. A food calorie is actually a kilocalorie and equivalent to the heat energy needed to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water by 1 °C. 

Every food item contains energy locked away in chemical bonds. That energy is measured in calories. Once the food is ingested it is metabolized by the body to release the stored energy. Cells then capture and use this energy to fuel normal bodily functions. 

The reason you can't consume wood and coal, as one individual claimed should be possible if calories mattered, is the body can't metabolize wood and coal. 

The first law of thermodynamics states that when energy passes into or out of a system the system's internal energy changes in accordance with the law of conservation of energy. 

In other words if you ingest 2000 calories then your body just gained 2000 calories of energy. The body either uses the energy, expels it as waste or stores it. 

About 10% is expelled as waste and the rest is either used or stored as fat or muscle. It will usually only be muscle if your diet is high in protein and you're engaging in resistance training. For most people excess calories are stored as fat. 

If you consume fewer calories than the body needs then it will literally begin to consume itself to make up the difference. Typically it will first consume stored fat and then muscle. 

That's how it works. Everything else simply changes the rate at which a body consumes energy or affects the body's ability to metabolize and release the energy in the food consumed.

Medical Issues, October 11, 2024

So, I've been going to physical therapy for three weeks and it's not high on my lists of things I like to do. Interestingly enough my left knee is giving me more trouble than my broken ankle. The ankle doctor said my right leg would again be my good leg and I think I'm already there. I have two more weeks, four days, of therapy scheduled.

Wearing the brace is much, much better than the boot even though getting in and out of it is a bit of a pain. Still, at least I don't feel wobbly like I did with the boot. I now use a cane rather than the walker except when I'm on the tiles in the play room.

Monday I go for the CT scan and I get the results, and find out what new horrors I'll have to endure, on the 29th. I see the ankle doctor on the 31st. Hopefully I can then dump the physical therapy and the brace.

After we get the right ankle patched up I'll have to decide what do do about the left knee.

The way things are going I might have to start searching for a bridge that I can jump off of.

The 2024 Election, October 11, 2024

I've cut the number of sites again to just the ones that seem to regularly update. Besides, I'm becoming convinced that, unless something drastic happens in the next couple of weeks, that Trump is going to easily win this election. I suspect the media is artificially trying to maintain interest by continuing to say how close things are. I don't think they're that close.

Electoral Vote

Trump -246 (-16), Harris - 247 (-29), Toss Up - 45 (+45)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -302 (+21), Harris - 236 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (+30), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 94 (-30)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (-25), Toss Up - 93 (+25)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (-6), Toss Up - 93 (+6)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -296 (+15), Harris - 242 (-15), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Again we have a shift towards Trump who clearly has all of the momentum. Add to this that I have always suspected that he will outperform the polls and it tells me that, unless a disaster occurs, Trump will win easily.

The 2024 Election, October 4, 2024

Well, it's Friday so time to capture the current numbers.

Same rules, sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (-10), Toss Up - 104 (+10)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -281 (+19), Harris - 257 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -188 (+6), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 124 (-6)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (+10), Toss Up - 68 (-10)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 232 (-9), Toss Up - 87 (+52)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -281 (+19), Harris - 257 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Another good week for Trump who clearly appears to have the momentum. 

The 2024 Election, September 27, 2024

 Well, it's Friday so time to capture the current numbers.

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -262 (+26), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (-10), Toss Up - 104 (+10)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -182 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 130 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (-10), Toss Up - 78 (+10)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+43), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 35 (-43)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-6)

Overall a slightly better week for Trump. But it looks like everyone is as unsure as I am about this thing. You can read article from pundits declaring everything from a Trump landslide to a Harris landslide.

I still take the position that Trump wins unless the numbers begin to change dramatically and I don't think that's going to happen.

The 2024 Election, September 21, 2024

Well, it's Saturday (I missed Friday) so time to capture the current numbers.

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -235 (-26), Harris - 276 (-1), Toss Up - 27 (+27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 225 (+17), Toss Up - 94 (-17)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -182 (-6), Harris - 226 (+3), Toss Up - 130 (+3)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (+15), Toss Up - 68 (-15)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 241 (+15), Toss Up - 78 (+28)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (-6)

I still can't make heads or tails out of this. It could go either way. If I had to bet today I would bet on Trump for three reasons.

(1) Republican voters appear unphased by Trump's increasingly bizarre antics. If Jesus Christ himself were to endorse Harris I suspect they would still vote for the guy with the (R) next to his name.

(2) Trump tends to outperform his polling numbers. We might be looking at a sort of "Trump Effect" where people are embarrassed to admit they're voting for him or are jerking around the pollsters.

(3) I have this suspicion that at the last minute some people are going to balk at voting for a woman.

Medical Issues, September 19th, 2024

 I went back to the orthopedist to see about my broken ankle. I've been wearing this boot on my right ankle and I'd like to strangle the guy that designed it. It's curved front to back and side to side which makes me wobble. I keep feeling like I'm to fall and break my neck.

Going up stairs is OK but coming down I feel like I'm going to go flying because the damn boot is too big for the step.

My big hope was that I could dump the boot and I can, sort of. He told me to get an ankle brace but with no recommendations. Just go to Walgreens he says. 

Well finding an ankle brace turned out to be a little tricky. The one I got at Walgreens didn't work out so I ended up ordering one from Amazon (all hail Amazon, the god of buying stuff). It will be here tomorrow so I have to suffer one more day with the boot.

I also have to wear it when I go out.

But the big crushing blow was him saying that I need to go to physical therapy two or three times a week for 6-8 weeks in order to get my balance back!!!

Get my balance back? My balance would be fine if I wasn't wearing this damn boot.

I also canceled my knee surgery. I can't take the chance of having neither leg useable. So that at least got rid of four appointments. I get to see ankle guy in six weeks. 

The nasty appointment of course is getting the results of the lung CT from the thoracic surgeon. The scan is October 14th and I get the results on October 29th. That's two days before I see the ankle guy again.

The 2024 Election, September 13, 2024

Well, it's Friday again and the debate is over. 

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -261 (+31), Harris - 277 (+1), Toss Up - 0 (-32)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -281 (+16), Harris - 257 (-16), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -188 (+40), Harris - 223 (+13), Toss Up - 127 (-53)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (-32), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (+32)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 236 (NC), Toss Up - 83 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-27)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -281 (-6), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 6 (+6)

Given these numbers one would think that Trump won the debate. Clearly raking Trump over the coals did little or no good for Harris.

The Debate

Well, the debate is over and Harris pretty much made Trump look like a bumbling, incoherent fool.

Just to add to the chaos the ABC hosts fact checked him in real time about his claims of post-birth infanticide and migrants eating pets in Springfield Ohio. 

Trump spewed lie after lie after lie but this time looked mostly like a fool while doing it. His "barbs" bounced off Harris like she was wearing plate armor.

It was delicious.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure that it's going to make much difference.

Trump's voting block is solid and what sane people recognized as bald faced lies Trump voters were probably cheering on as "telling it like it is."

The most we can hope for is the debate will stunt Trump's recent momentum and hopefully reverse it but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

The 2024 Election, September 6, 2024

 Another Friday and another update. The big story recently has been that Nat Silver has declared that Trump has a 58% chance of winning to Harris' 41%. All of the ring wing news outlets have been running hard with this story. Personally, I'm not that impressed with Silver's model.

Again sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -230 (-11), Harris - 276 (-16), Toss Up - 32 (+16)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -265 (-3), Harris - 273 (+3), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)

Polling Map

Trump -148 (-70), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 180 (+70)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 236 (-15), Toss Up - 83 (+15)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

The big drop in Trump votes in the polling map comes from Texas and Florida going to undecided but I don't believe that for one second.

Everything else shows a tightening race. Looks like Harris' honeymoon period is over and things are setting back down. The debate is scheduled for September 10th and might be the deciding factor. I suppose we shall see what we shall see.

Medical Issues, August 31st, 2024

Getting old sucks.

The fractured right ankle has added to my other physical woes of a shot left knee and the constant lung monitoring.

I had planned to finally get the knee attended to in December but the ankle has led me to wonder if I really want to go through this sort of thing again. I'm leaning toward canceling the knee replacement but my wife won't be happy about that.

My next lung checkup is in October. Hopefully the ankle will be better by then but bad news in the lung checkup might impact the scheduled repair even if I decide to go through with it.

I spend way too much time in doctor's offices. Let's look at the current schedule coming up.

September 5th, Pulmonologist, checkup.

September 13th, Dentist, cleaning.

September 16th week, Orthopedist, ankle checkup

October 14th, CT Scan, lungs.

October 29th, Thoracic Surgeon, results of CT Scan (this is the big one)

November 12th, Orthopedic Nurse, Knee Surgery pre-op

November 14th, Cardiologist, checkup and knee surgery clearance

November 18th, Pulmonologist, knee surgery clearance

November 19th, Primary Care, knee surgery clearance.

December 5th, Orthopedist, Knee Surgery

December 6th, Orthopedist, release from hospital

December 18th, Orthopedic PA, post knee surgery check-up 

January 6th, Eye Doctor, checkup

January 15th, Orthopedist, knee surgery checkup

Damn Ankle

It's been a week since I fractured my right ankle and I can say, unequivocally, that this SUCKS!

I hurt it last Saturday but optimistically decided it was just a strain. But walking to the bathroom and especially going up and down steps were kind of painful. I started using a walker to limit the weight on the ankle.

On Sunday I found it hard to get down the stairs and the ankle looked swollen and black and blue so I gave in and went to the spiffy new Valley Hospital Emergence Room.

I'm spending way too much fucking time at this hospital.

They discovered that it was fractured, wrapped the thing up in a splint and told me to confer with a orthopedist at good old Ridgewood Orthopedics. They gave me crutches but said that I could use a walker as well. The walker felt more secure so I've been using that.

I managed to get an appointment at Ridgewood Orthopedics for late Wednesday.

The doctor verified that it was fractured, but shouldn't require surgery (that was REALLY good), and had his assistant set me up with a walking boot.

Let's talk about this boot. First, the thing in big, clunky, plastic and annoying. It's big on Velcro which is used to both wrap the padding in place and on the three straps which holds the plastic cover in place.

OK, so far so good. What I want to know is who is the idiot that decided that rounding the sole of the boot was a good idea. Bad enough that it's hard, and slippery, plastic but the rounded bottom makes it feel like I'm constantly wobbling.

I take it off when I go to bed so I got a urinal to pee in so I don't have to put the damn thing on every time I need to use the facilities.

The doctor told me to get external lifts to fit on my left sneaker to even out the height. I managed to get them the next morning from Amazon and they are designed right. The have a ridged rubber sole which provides secure footing.

So now my bad left leg with the mangled knee has become the leg I need to rely upon. Obviously I spend a lot of time sitting on my rear end. I was told to lay off exercise for at least a weak and then to take it slow and easy.

I was told to come back in three weeks but the girl at checkout couldn't find an opening and said they would get back to me. I haven't heard from them yet so a call to them on Monday is on my agenda.

The 2024 Election, August 30, 2024

Well, it's Friday again. The DNC is over and RFK Jr. has dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump. There is some whispering in the back alleys that Trump may dump Vance for RFK but I don't think that's going to happen.

Harris and Walz gave a joint interview on CNN last night and the reactions have been lukewarm at best. Harris may have made the interview controversial by trying to be uncontroversial. Obviously any impact of that interview won't be in this week's numbers.

Again sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -230 (-11), Harris - 292 (+30), Toss Up - 16 (-19)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -268 (-19), Harris - 270 (+19), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (NC), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 110 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 68 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -235 (-16), Harris - 226 (-15), Toss Up - 77 (+31)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

Only one site now has Trump with enough electoral votes to win the election and five others have him leading. The biggest impacts have been Real Clear Politics moving Pennsylvania from Trump to Harris in its No Tossups Map and many places making North Carolina a tossup.

Two sites now have Harris with enough votes to win the election and four have her leading.

What are Harris' Policies?

Republicans and their supporters on the right keep asking what Kamala Harris' policies are?

Honestly, I'm not sure I care what her policies are. Congress passes laws and the budget so the president should be little more than the main suggester and critic. 

Unfortunately Executive Orders have become a way for the president to legislate. This isn't a new development. It has been the case since around the time of Theodore Roosevelt who issued 1,081 Executive orders which was more than the first 25 presidents issued combined. But the king of Executive Orders was Franklyn Roosevelt who issued 3,721. But at least he the excuse of s depression and a world war.

Things haven't been that crazy recently but presidents tend to issue between 200 and 400 Executive Orders during their tenure.

I didn't think much of Harris' economic plan and I'm leery of the idea of taxing unrealized capitol gains. I'm opposed to any consideration or reparations which I know that she at least wants to investigate.

I'm sure she's for a nationwide abortion protection, tax reform, improving the Social Security outlook and improved healthcare. I can probably get behind those although as usual the devil is in the details.

So we agree on some things and disagree on others which is what I would expect. The only way I could agree with a candidate on everything would be if the candidate was me.

The 2024 Election, August 23, 2024

I've noticed that some of these sites I've selected to track just aren't updating as often as I thought. I will mark sites that haven't updated in italics. I've also added four sites, Polling Map, Sabatos Crystal Ball, JHK Forecasts and Polymarket Odds, that have updated. I dropped Inside Elections because it hasn't updated since May.

Electoral Vote

Trump -241 (NC), Harris - 262 (-19), Toss Up - 35 (+19)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -218 (NC), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 110 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (-33), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77

538 Model

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 68 (+18)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

There are now 12 prediction sites listed. Two have Trump with enough electoral votes to win the election and seven others have him leading. None have Harris with enough votes which is a change from last week and three have her leading.