My Final Predictions for the Senate II

My rule of thumb for the Senate is to take the Real Clear Politics average and then add 1 point to the GOP for each time the state has gone for Trump. Why? Because I'm convinced that there is a cadre of Trump supporters that either (1) live in rural areas difficult to reach by pollsters, (2) refuse to take polls or (3) actually lie to pollsters.

That gives the GOP Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas. Honestly, I never thought that Nebraska and South Carolina were ever really in play, but my rule of thumb gives them to the GOP easily anyway. As for Maine, Collins is like a cat and she may have one more life. I think the GOP takes Maine. I'm not sure what's going to happen in Michigan. 

So that gives the GOP 52 seats, the Dems 47 seats with one seat, Michigan, floating in the ether. My feeling is the Dems will take Michigan making it GOP 52 and Dems 48. I say that because even after applying my rule of thumb El-Sayed is up 1.5 points so, unless I've missed something here, the Dems take Michigan.

My Final Predictions for the Senate

With 6 days to go, my opinion has pretty much solidified. 

The Dems will win Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Georgia. 

The GOP is going to win Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, South Carolina, Alaska and Texas. I don't know who is going to win Michigan. 

I do find it strange that I even have to include South Carolina, Nebraska and Kansas. Honestly, I never thought that these seats were up for grabs, but there's been a lot of wild talk.

So that's either 51 or 52 seats for the GOP depending upon how Michigan goes. Since the Dems aren't taking the Senate anyway, I don't have to feel guilty about rooting against El-Sayed.

Israeli Elections

 In the meantime, over in Israel, all 120 seats of the Knesset are up for election. Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition appears to have collapsed as he struggles to maintain control. He chief rivel is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Exit polls indicate that neither will have an outright 61 seat majority. Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to collapse from 68 seats in the previous Knesset to 50 seats. Eisenkot’s bloc had 52 seats. In the meantime, Arab parties are projected to have a record 18 seats.

Gadi Eisenkot's views are not that much different from Netanyahu and he has lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza fighting. He views Iran as the primary strategic threat and advocates dismantling Hamas leadership and ending its rule. 

So, maybe we're not going to get a quick resolution to the fighting even if he displaces Netanyahu.

Eisenkot opposes the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. However, he rejects permanent one-state control and far-right expansionist proposals, favoring regional/administrative separation.

In other words, not much different from the West Bank today and perhaps Palestinian Authority control over Gaza.

This sounds like another stop gap measure rather than an actual solution.

Election Time Update

Election Time has updated its Senate map and the changes are significant.

Election Time GOP-50, Dems -50

GOP Wins

ME, IA, TX

Dem Wins

AK, NH, MN, OH, GA, NC, MI

This site was pretty GOP gung ho not that long ago, predicting 56 seats, so this is a really big change.

The Midterm Stretch IV

I'm changing the format. I'm dropping the New York Governor's race because that looks like a done deal. I'm just going to list the current numbers in the Senate races and forget about highlighting changes. I'm going to look at all the competitive Senate races.

I don't know what to believe any more. Most pollsters are doubling down on a big Dem night, although some have started to hedge their bets. More than a few people are taking the position that the polls are flawed and there's going to be a big surprise on November 3rd. I still think Texas, Alaska and Maine will go to the GOP.

I suppose that we shall see what we shall see.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 227, GOP - 183, Tossups - 25

Polymarket has it Dems - 235, GOP - 200

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 44, Tossups - 10

Dem Pickups - NC

Dem Hold -  NH, GA

Tossups - ME, OH, MI, TX, AK, IA, MN, KS, NE, SC

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, ME, AK

Dem Hold - NH, MI, GA

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, AK, OH, TX, ME

Dem Holds - NH, GA, MI

Individual Senate Races

I'm going to include here Real Clear Politics (RCP), Nate Silver (NS), FiftyPlusOne (FP1) and Polymarket (PM). 

Minnesota

RCP - Flannagan (D) - 46.6%, Tafoya (R) - 43.2%

NS -  Flannagan (D) - 48.0%, Tafoya (R) - 43.3%

FP1 - Flannagan (D) - 84%, Tafoya (R) - 16%

PM - Flannagan (D) - 83%, Tafoya (R) - 18%

New Hampshire

RCP - Pappas (D) - 46.6%, Sununu (R) - 43.2%

NS - Pappas (D) - 49.7%, Sununu (R) - 42.4%

FP1 - Pappas (D) - 92%, Sununu (R) - 8%

PM - Pappas (D) - 90%, Sununu (R) - 11%

Texas

RCP - Talarico (D) - 48.4%, Paxton (R) - 46.9%

NS - Talarico (D) - 48.7%, Paxton (R) - 46.3%

FP1 - Talarico (D) - 59%, Paxton (R) - 41%

PM - Talarico (D) - 65%, Paxton (R) - 37%

Alaska

RCP - Peltola (D) - 49.0%, Sullivan (R) - 48.2%

NS - Peltola (D) - 47.9%, Sullivan (R) - 44.1%

FP1 - Peltola (D) - 66%, Sullivan (R) - 34%

PM - Peltola (D) - 74%, Sullivan (R) - 27%

Ohio

RCP - Brown (D) - 48.2%, Husted (R) - 44.9%

NS - Brown (D) - 48.2%, Husted (R) - 44.9%

FP1 - Brown (D) - 63%, Husted (R) - 37%

PM - Brown (D) - 69%, Husted (R) - 33%

Michigan

RCP - El-Sayed (D) - 47.9%, Rogers (R) - 46.0%

NS - El-Sayed (D) - 48.3%, Rogers (R) - 45.5%

FP1 - El-Sayed (D) - 66%, Rogers (R) - 34%

PM - El-Sayed (D) - 66%, Rogers (R) - 35%

Maine

RCP - Jackson (D) - 48.9%, Collins (R) - 47.5%

NS - Jackson (D) - 49.3%, Collins (R) - 47.1%

FP1 - Jackson (D) - 69%, Collins (R) - 31%

PM - Jackson (D) - 57%, Collins (R) - 43%

This is all very close. If you assume just a 3 point GOP under count, then they will win Texas, Alaska and Maine which is what I've been saying all along. Looks like they might take Michigan as well.

Election Time on the Midterms

 I found a video from a channel called Election Time that has a very different take of the Senate races. It predicts that the GOP will win 56 seats. It breaks down the competitive seats as follows:

Election Time GOP-56, Dems -44

GOP Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, IA, GA, TX

Dem Wins

NC

This is significantly different from other sites.

RCP No Tossups Dems - 52, GOP - 48

GOP Wins

IA

Dem Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, GA, TX, NC

Polymarket Dems - 52, GOP - 48

GOP Wins

IA

Dem Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, GA, TX, NC

Nate Silver Dems - 53, GOP - 47

GOP Wins

Dem Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, IA, GA, TX, NC

The Nate Silver list aren't really predictions but rather who is ahead in his polling average. 

My Personal Picks GOP - 53, Dems - 47

GOP Wins

AK, ME, IA, OH, MI, TX

Dem Wins

NH, MN, GA, NC

Fake Polling Data

Wedgewood Polls has admitted to releasing fake poll results including one that may have driven state Sen. Mallory McMorrow out of the Michigan Democratic Primary for Senator.

Wedgewood made the admission after election analysis website FiftyPlusOne said Tuesday that it had launched an investigation into how Wedgewood had conducted their survey research.

Wedgewood now says the poll’s data was fake and was an “experiment” designed to be a “wake-up call” to voters about the vulnerabilities of modern polling.

Well isn't that just special?

Apparently Wedgewood's "poll results" have been referred to on mainstream media and have been included in polling averages including those published by Nate Silver. Silver has updated his numbers resulting in a slight improvement in Republican chances.

Then they want to know why we don't trust polls. I can't wait for Mike Johnson to run with this one.

The Midterm Stretch III

 We're going to see if anything has changed from a week ago and I've added a Dem hold line for races that are currently in the Dem column but lookclose.

Still going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket. Bold = Change, Bold + Italics = Gain.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 187 (-2), Tossups - 22 (+2)

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 46, Tossups - 8

Dem Pickups - NC

Dem Hold -  NH, GA

Tossups - ME, OH, MI, TX, AK, IA, MN, KS

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME, IA

Dem Hold - NH, MI, GA

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Dem Holds - NH, GA, MI

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.5% (+0.4), Paxton (R) - 46.3% (+1.0)

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 48.8% (-0.2), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.2)

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 64% (+1), Paxton (R) - 37% (-1)

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1% (-0.3), Rogers (R) - 45.5% (-0.2)

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.7% (+0.6), Rogers (R) - 45.1% (-0.6)

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 68% (+5), Rogers (R) - 32% (-1)

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 53.3%, Blakeman (R) - 40.5%

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 53.5% (+0.7), Blakeman (R) - 39.5% (-1.0)

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 95% (-1), Blakeman (R) - 5% (+1)

Allan Lichtman on the Senate

The historian and political analyst Allan Lichtman on the 2026 race for the Senate and I figured that I would capture that for future reference. Here is what he is saying about the competitive races.

Seats that he predicts that Democrats will hold.

New Hampshire - Democrat Chris Pappas

Michigan - Democrat Abdul El-Sayed

Seats that he predicts Democrats will flip.

Maine - Democrat Troy Jackson

North Carolina - Democrat Roy Cooper

Ohio - Democrat Sherrod Brown

Texas - Democrat Janes Talarico

Alaska - Democrat Mary Peltola

So that would make it 52-48 in favor of the Democrats.

I have the same fundamental problem here. Lichtman is placing a lot of importance on the horrible poll numbers for Trump. But being mad at Trump, and not voting Republican are two different things. I don't think the Democrats are going to take Maine or Texas and they may not take Alaska. I don't think they're going to hold Michigan either.

That would make it 51-49 or 52-49 for the GOP depending on Alaska.

Trump's Take on the Polls.

In an interview with Newsmax Trump made his view clear that "They're rigged. They're rigged polls."

He went on to explain that polling can suppress turnout by showing a candidate either so far behind that supporters believe voting is pointless or so far ahead that they believe victory is assured.

He's certainly right about that. I've made the point on a number of occasions in the past and all over the internet people are warning Dem supporters not to get complacent.

"So they're doing it to discourage people from voting. They're doing it deliberately," Trump said.

The problem is there are an awful lot of polls and they're pretty much showing the same thing. Still, the ghost of 2016 still haunts the political arena and there are some polls that disagree.

I stand by my three concerns.

(1) I don't think historical trends matter in this new political environment.

(2) Disliking Trump and not voting Republican are two different things.

(3) The Democrats strike me as brain dead. They're campaigning on two basic points. The first is "Trump Big Bad" and the second is "We're going to give people free stuff." I just don't think that's enough.

Obviously, this could just be my distrust of polls and my natural pessimism talking. I'm especially leery about the Senate races. I suspect that the Dems will take the House, but the Senate, I'm not so sure.

I suppose we shall see.

An Ice Raid on Ilhan Oman

 ICE raided the home of Ilhan Omar. Federal agents reportedly searched her home in a criminal investigation related to claims that she or her father may have lied on immigration paperwork when they sought to secure legal status in the U.S. decades earlier.

Who is making these claims is not clear. One item coming out of this is that Omar updated her date of birth in Congressional records from 10/4/1981 to 10/4/1982.

What makes this tricky is that American citizenship is based upon her being under 18 when her father got citizenship. As a minor she would be included. But if she was 18 or older, then she have to file on her own.

Omar's father obtained citizenship in 2000. A little basic arithmetic would tell you that, if she was born in 1981, then there is no way that she could have been under 18 at then time. Changing the date to 1982 resolves the problem.

I'm not sure how one resolves this without some sort of independent documentation because everything we have appears to be self reported. 

I suppose it's a matter of consistency. If every other reported date, driver's license, Social Security and school records, indicates 1982, then the 1981 date was simply an error despite the curious coincidence of it making her citizenship valid or not. If all the other dates are 1981, then that could be an issue.

I think it's most likely that the one date of 1981 was in error. Why bother to lie on the application for citizenship? Besides, they must have realized that there were other self reported dates that could be checked.

I suspect this particular issue is going nowhere. As for any other claims about falsifying immigration papers, I have no idea what they are so I suppose we shall see.

CNN on the Midterms

CNN has this really annoying "data analyst" by the name of Harry Enten that has been giving his take on the midterms. I don't like his broadcast manner. He sounds like a bit of a jerk to me.

However, that doesn't mean that he doesn't know what he's doing so I thought that I would capture his current thoughts.

He has presented it in terms of the probability of the possible outcomes.

Possibility #4 - <1% Probability

GOP House and Dem Senate

Possibility #3 - 11% Probability

GOP House and GOP Senate

Possibility #2 - 22% Probability

Dem House and GOP Senate

Possibility #1 - 67% Probability

Dem House and Dem Senate

OK, let's not forget that Hillary Clinton had an 80% chance in 2016. 

I have three problems with Enten's predictions. 

The first is that he seems to rely somewhat on historical trends. I don't think historical trends matter in this new political environment. Things have never been as polarized as they are now.

The second is that he's assuming because Trump is so currently unpopular that will lead to people abandoning the GOP or at least not showing up to support it. I don't know about that. Disliking Trump and not voting Republican are two different things.

The third is that the Democrats strike me as brain dead. They're campaigning on two basic points. The first is "Trump Big Bad" and the second is "We're going to give people free stuff." We'll see how well that works out.

The Midterm Stretch II

We're going to see if anything has changed from a week ago.

Still going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket. Bold = Change, Bold + Italics = Gain.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 189 (+4), Tossups - 20 (-4)

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 46 (+1), Tossups - 8 (-1)

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, IA, ME

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.1% (-0.1), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.1)

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 48.8% (-0.2), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.2)

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 63% (-2), Paxton (R) - 38% (+1)

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.4% (+0.6), Rogers (R) - 45.7% (+1.5)

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1% (+0.3), Rogers (R) - 45.7% (+1.3)

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 63% (-4), Rogers (R) - 33% (+5)

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 53.3% (+1.6), Blakeman (R) - 40.5% (+0.2)

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 52.8% (+0.1), Blakeman (R) - 40.4% (+0.5)

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 96%, Blakeman (R) - 4% 

Looks like a few more people making decisions and some GOP gains. More on this next week.

The Midterm Stretch

Well, here we go, less than a month to the midterms.

The polls say the Dems are going to have a big night but I'm not so sure. Hating Trump and not voting Republican are two different things.

I'm going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 185, Tossups - 24

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 45, Tossups - 9

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, IA, ME

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.2%, Paxton (R) - 45.4%

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 49.0%, Paxton (R) - 45.5%

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 65%, Paxton (R) - 37%

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 47.8%, Rogers (R) - 44.2%

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1%, Rogers (R) - 44.4%

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 73%, Rogers (R) - 28%

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 51.7%, Blakeman (R) - 40.3%

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 52.7%, Blakeman (R) - 39.9%

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 96%, Blakeman (R) - 4%

Happy Birthday to Me!

Happy birthday to me! Happy birthday to me,  and so on, and so forth. It's the big 78th Birthday. Honestly, I never thought that I would make it this far.

Of course, I'm falling apart, slowly but surely. OK, enough with the bitching and moaning.

Pete Buttigieg's Interview

 I was watching an interview with Pete Buttigieg about what the Democrats should do if they gain back the House.

I generally agreed with his idea of a series of small revenue bills addressing popular things. Such as raising taxes on the wealthy, restoring the Child Tax Credit, restoring the AMA subsidies. He warned against simply going back to the way things were.

I don't know how to tell you this Bill, but bringing back the Child Tax Credit, restoring the ACA subsidies and raising the minimum wage all have the possibility of increasing inflation and inflation is the one biggest thing that hurts people like us, retired couples, the most. 

So why should I vote for Democrats if I'm going to get hurt? I didn't hear anything about eliminating taxes on Social Security or insuring the program will continue to be viable. What about addressing drug prices and adding dental to Medicare? 

There are 73 million Americans on Social Security and you're ignoring them. Then you wonder why senior citizens don't vote for you. 46 million used the CTC and about 22 million got AMA subsidies. Even if there weren't significant overlap between those two groups, and there almost certainly is, that's 73 million to 68 million. Then you wonder why you lose elections. 

The Lone Juror

The lone holdout juror in the Lindsay Clancy has become something of a celebrity especially as he turned out to be a black man in his thirties that describes himself as a Black Conservative Republican.

As I said before, half the country wants to tar and feather him and the other half wants to hold him a ticker tape parade.

I wasn't in the courtroom, so I really have little basic for coming to a conclusion, but I think this guy should be applauded for sticking to his decision holding out against the mob.

In other Clancy trial news, her husband, Patrick, has apparently retained council and may be going after the people on social media that have been saying that he murdered the three children.

Good for him. These clowns need to understand that you can't just defame people online without consequences.

Given all the publicity, finding an unbiased jury for a second trial is going to be tricky.

Race for the Senate 2026

Polls are often skewed by 2-3 points. People will express frustration with the party in power even if they usually vote for it. Doing so in a poll is harmless, but doing so in the voting booth is not so harmless, and they tend to revert to the party they support even if they are upset with it. 

I think the polls are skewed 2-3 in the Dems favor especially in typically red states. So, assuming that's correct, I expect Iowa, Texas, Ohio and Alaska to be won by Republicans. That will give the GOP 51 seats and put New Hampshire, Michigan and Maine in play, but I suspect the Dems will still win those three races. Moody (R) will win in Florida. Ossoff will win in Georgia and Cooper will win in North Carolina. 

These calls may change in the eight weeks still remaining, but it's where I think things will go right now.

The Lindsay Clancy Trial

So when from an inclusion in a current events summary to a mainline topic. I will repeat what I said previously just to set the stage.

A woman in Massachusetts, by the name of Lindsay Clancy, is on trial for murdering her three children. There is no question about whether she did it. She admits that she did it and hers lawyers admit that she did it. This hasn't kept feminists on the Internet from claiming her husband did it even though there is video evidence that he was at CVS at the time. The issue being debated is whether she was mentally ill and had been misdiagnosed which led to her being given medicine that made her condition worse rather than better. 

The trial is over, and has ended in a mistrial, but it's interesting how it got there.

It started with a note from the jury saying that they were deadlocked. As per standard procedure, the judge simply sent them back to continue deliberating. There was no indication as to what the split might be.

The jury then sent a second note saying that they were still deadlocked. Superior Court Judge William Sullivan delivered the Tuey-Rodriguez charge, a supplemental instruction urging the jury to make a final effort to reach a unanimous decision. There was still no indication of the split.

Then the jury sent a third note which showed considerable frustration. The note claimed that one lone juror was "refusing to follow the law." They had expressed doubt but refused to vote for acquittal.

Well, that brought us into a whole new situation. It was now clear that the vote was 11-1 for acquittal and the 11 were claiming that the 1 was not following the judge's instructions.

Judge Sullivan read the whole jury a definition of "Reasonable Doubt" and polled each jury as to whether they were prepared to follow the law and his instructions on the law. Each said that they were, so they were sent back for a third time.

Clancy's lawyer, Kevin Reddington, was going a little nuts. His client was one vote from acquittal. He got up and "suggested" that the judge remove the one juror and replace him with an alternate. The judge, correctly in my opinion, refused to do so. Somewhere along the line Reddington used male pronouns to refer to the juror, so everyone concluded that it was a man, even though the jury had six women and only three men. 

The Lone Juror, held out and the judge was forced to declare a mistrial. Reddington threw everything that he could come up with to prevent that, but to no avail.

The court, prosecution and defense have scheduled a meeting for the end of September to discuss scheduling a retrial so it looks like we're going to do this again.

The Internet went a little crazy over this. There was everything from calls for the Lone Juror to be tar and feathered to declaring them a national hero. I'm still not 100% certain it's a man by the way. Given the vitriol going around, they might want to lay low for a while.

It's Been a While

I'd like to talk about what's going on, and I would, if I understood what's going on.

Seriously, everything seems upside down and side ways.

The whole war in Iran seems to be in a state of limbo. There's not a lot of shooting, but still a lot of economic strangulation, although it's hard to tell who's strangling who?

Trump is arguing with Canada again and wants to rename Lake Ontario to Lake America. He really is a fucking moron.

The US debt has topped $40 trillion. That's about $117,000 per person in the US.

The Stock Market is having conniptions. A daily graph of any day recently looks like a roller coaster ride with massive dips for no apparent reason. So-called "experts" are still arguing about whether there is an AI bubble and how big it is. There's definitely a bubble and I'm afraid it might be bigger than anyone wants to admit.

A woman in Massachusetts, by the name of Lindsay Clancy, is on trial for murdering her three children. There is no question about whether she did it. She admits that she did it and hers lawyers admit that she did it. This hasn't kept feminists on the Internet from claiming her husband did it even though there is video evidence that he was at CVS at the time. The issue being debated is whether she was mentally ill and had been misdiagnosed which led to her being given medicine that made her condition worse rather than better.

The NFL season is getting ready to start.

That's all that I can think of at the moment.