The Midterm Stretch III

 We're going to see if anything has changed from a week ago and I've added a Dem hold line for races that are currently in the Dem column but lookclose.

Still going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket. Bold = Change, Bold + Italics = Gain.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 187 (-2), Tossups - 22 (+2)

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 46, Tossups - 8

Dem Pickups - NC

Dem Hold -  NH, GA

Tossups - ME, OH, MI, TX, AK, IA, MN, KS

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME, IA

Dem Hold - NH, MI, GA

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Dem Holds - NH, GA, MI

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.5% (+0.4), Paxton (R) - 46.3% (+1.0)

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 48.8% (-0.2), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.2)

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 64% (+1), Paxton (R) - 37% (-1)

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1% (-0.3), Rogers (R) - 45.5% (-0.2)

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.7% (+0.6), Rogers (R) - 45.1% (-0.6)

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 68% (+5), Rogers (R) - 32% (-1)

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 53.3%, Blakeman (R) - 40.5%

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 53.5% (+0.7), Blakeman (R) - 39.5% (-1.0)

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 95% (-1), Blakeman (R) - 5% (+1)