The historian and political analyst Allan Lichtman on the 2026 race for the Senate and I figured that I would capture that for future reference. Here is what he is saying about the competitive races.
Seats that he predicts that Democrats will hold.
New Hampshire - Democrat Chris Pappas
Michigan - Democrat Abdul El-Sayed
Seats that he predicts Democrats will flip.
Maine - Democrat Troy Jackson
North Carolina - Democrat Roy Cooper
Ohio - Democrat Sherrod Brown
Texas - Democrat Janes Talarico
Alaska - Democrat Mary Peltola
So that would make it 52-48 in favor of the Democrats.
I have the same fundamental problem here. Lichtman is placing a lot of importance on the horrible poll numbers for Trump. But being mad at Trump, and not voting Republican are two different things. I don't think the Democrats are going to take Maine or Texas and they may not take Alaska. I don't think they're going to hold Michigan either.
That would make it 51-49 or 52-49 for the GOP depending on Alaska.
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