The Midterm Stretch II

We're going to see if anything has changed from a week ago.

Still going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket. Bold = Change, Bold + Italics = Gain.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 189 (+4), Tossups - 20 (-4)

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 46 (+1), Tossups - 8 (-1)

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, IA, ME

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.1% (-0.1), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.1)

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 48.8% (-0.2), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.2)

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 63% (-2), Paxton (R) - 38% (+1)

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.4% (+0.6), Rogers (R) - 45.7% (+1.5)

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1% (+0.3), Rogers (R) - 45.7% (+1.3)

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 63% (-4), Rogers (R) - 33% (+5)

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 53.3% (+1.6), Blakeman (R) - 40.5% (+0.2)

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 52.8% (+0.1), Blakeman (R) - 40.4% (+0.5)

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 96%, Blakeman (R) - 4% 

Looks like a few more people making decisions and some GOP gains. More on this next week.