I told you that I would probably be doing this. Apparently a new slew of polls have been released so I'm going to play my rule of thumb on the updated averages. We'll add one point for each time the state voted for Trump. I'll also look at Real Clear Politics (RCP) and Nate Silver (NS).
We start with GOP 44, Dems 43
Maine + 0 pts
RCP - Jackson + 2.8
NS - Jackson + 4
By my rules, this goes to Jackson but Collins is like a cat and I think she still has a life left. I'm going with my gut on this one.
Winner - Collins GOP
GOP 45, Dems 43
New Hampshire + 0 pts
RCP - Pappas + 8
NS - Pappas + 8.4
Winner - Pappas Dems
GOP 45, Dems 44
Ohio + 3 pts
RCP - Brown + 2.8
NS - Brown + 3
But we add 3 pts to the GOP.
Winner - Husted GOP
GOP 46, Dems 44
North Carolina + 3 pts
RCP - Cooper +10.8
NS - Cooper + 10.2
Winner - Cooper Dems
GOP 46, Dems 45
South Carolina + 3 pts
RCP - Graham +2.6
NS - Graham +1.3
Winner - Graham GOP
GOP 47, Dems 45
Georgia + 2 pts
RCP - Ossoff +8.2
NS - Ossoff +10.5
Winner - Ossoff Dems
GOP 47, Dems 46
Minnesota + 0 pts
RCP - Flanagan +5.2
NS - Flanagan +6.6
Winner - Flanagan Dems
GOP 47, Dems 47
Iowa + 3 pts
RCP - Hinson +0.5
NS - Turek +0.7
Winner - Hinson
GOP 48, Dems 47
Nebraska + 3 pts
RCP - Ricketts +3.7
NS - Ricketts +0.8
Winner - Ricketts
GOP 49, Dems 47
Kansas + 3 pts
RCP - Hamilton +3.6
NS - Hamilton + 3.3
By the rules Hamilton wins but Kansas? I don't believe it, and I'm going with my gut again as in both cases it's within a single point.
Winner - Marshall GOP
GOP 50, Dems 47
Alaska + 3 pts
RCP - Peltola +1.0
NS - Peltola +2.6
In both cases adding the Trump points flips the race to the GOP.
Winner - Sullivan GOP
GOP 51, Dems 47
Texas + 3 pts
RCP - Talarico _+2.6
NS - Talarico + 3.5
So adding the 3 Trump points splits this, but, again, I'm going with my gut and giving it to the GOP.
Winner - Paxton
GOP 52, Dems 47
Michigan + 2 pts
RCP - El-Sayed +5.0
NS - El-Sayed +4.7
The Trump points don't help so the state goes to the Dems.
Winner - El-Sayed
GOP 52, Dems 48
So there are three results that I can take from this exercise.
Result #1 - Ignore adding the Trump points and just go with the averages. If the averages don't agree, then it's a tossup.
Result #2 - Simply follow my rule of thumb and ignore my gut feelings. Again, if it's a split then it's a tossup.
Result #3 - Precisely as above with the Trump points and my gut feels.
Result #1 - Dems 53, GOP 46, Tossup 1 (Iowa)
Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska and Texas go to the Dems and Iowa becomes a tossup. I have absolutely zero confidence that this is going to happen.
Result #2 - Dems 50, GOP 49, Tossup 1 (Texas)
Maine and Kansas go to the Dems and Texas becomes a tossup.
Result #3 - GOP 52, Dems 48
This is the end of the guesswork. Tomorrow all will be revealed. My wife and I intend to go vote around noon and we shall see what we shall see.
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