Primary Predictions #3

Well, here we are, on the eve of the Iowa Caucuses. The final predictions for Iowa from  fivethirtyeight.com are as follows:

Iowa Caucases - Republicans  - Probability of winning:

Donald Trump - 48% (31%) +17
Ted Cruz - 40% (53%) -13
Marco Rubio - 11% (10%) +1
Ben Carson - 1% (3%) -2

Jeb Bush dropped of the list.

Iowa Caucases - Democrats - Probability of winning: 

Hillary Clinton - 79% (83%) -4
Bernie Sanders - 21% (17%) +4

To be quite honest with you this has been so volatile and there are so few people involved that even minor things could shift this one way or the other.

Predicted results are:

Donald Trump - 28.5
Ted Cruz - 25.2
Marco Rubio - 16.8
Ben Carson - 9.3
Jeb Bush - 4.7%
Rand Paul - 4.6%
Chris Christie 3.3%
Mike Huckabee - 3.0%
John Kasich 2.6%
Carly Fiorina - 2.4%
Rick Santorum - 1.4%

Hillary Clinton - 50.0%
Bernie Sanders - 43.1%
Martin O'Malley - 5.4%

Of course what would really shake things up would be is someone did significantly better, or worse, than expected. 

Saudi Arabia and Oil

With the price of oil pushing $30 a barrel I'm seeing all sorts of hand wringing about how Saudi Arabia is on the verge of bankruptcy.

My response is, oh please, give me a break.

It was the Saudi strategy to drive the price of oil down to drive the shale producers, who's overhead is higher, out of the market.

It costs the Saudi's about $10 a barrel to produce oil so they're still making money just not as much money.

So how do you go broke when you're still making $20 a barrel on oil? Like anyone else goes broke. They're spending more than they take in. Their oil revenues in 2016 are estimated to be about $100 billion but their budget is at $223 billion. They get about $37 billion from other sources so that's going to leave them about $87 billion short. Since their GDP is around $632 billion that's 14% of GDP.

To put that in perspective, the US 2016 budget was $4 trillion with a $474 billion deficit which is about 2.6% of GDP.

At an $87 billion deficit and a $624 billion reserve, plus an A+ bond rating from S&P so they can borrow money at reasonable rates, they're good for at least 10 years and probably more.

By that time production will drop and prices will increase because just about everyone else will be losing money on oil at $30 a barrel.

So, you'll excuse me, but I wouldn't worry about the Saudis one bit.

Primary Predictions #2

The latest from fivethirtyeight.com shows a reversal in the Democratic New Hampshire race. The current projections are as follows with the previous in parentheses.

Iowa Caucases - Republicans  - Probability of winning:

Ted Cruz - 53% (51%) +1
Donald Trump - 31% (29%) +2
Marco Rubio - 10% (14%) -4
Ben Carson - 3% (3%) -
Jeb Bush - 2% (1% ) +1

Iowa Caucases - Democrats - Probability of winning: 

Hillary Clinton - 83% (82%) +1
Bernie Sanders - 17% (18%) -1

New Hampshire Primary - Republicans - Probability of winning: 

Donald Trump - 46% (39%) +7
Ted Cruz - 15% (13%) +2
Marco Rubio - 13% (21%) -8
John Kasich - 12% (11%) +1
Jeb Bush - 8% (6%) +2
Chris Christie - 4% (7%) -3
Rand Paul - 1% (1% ) -

New Hampshire Primary - Democrats Probability of winning: 

Bernie Sanders - 57% (43%) +14
Hillary Clinton - 43% (57%) -14

Primary Predictions

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com has started putting together predictions about who will win the primaries and has also been tracking endorsements stating that endorsements are often the best predictors of which candidates will succeed and which will fail.

First the primaries.

Iowa Caucases - Republicans

Probability of winning:

Ted Cruz - 51%
Donald Trump - 29%
Marco Rubio - 14%
Ben Carson - 3%
Jeb Bush - 1%

The estimated results are:

Ted Cruz - 26.5%
Donald Trump - 21.2%
Marco Rubio - 16.0%
Ben Carson - 9.1%
Jeb Bush - 6.2%
Chris Christie - 5.0%
Rand Paul - 4.8%
John Kasich - 4.1%
Mike Huckabee - 3.8%
Carly Fiorina - 1.7%
Rick Santorum - 1.4%

Iowa Caucases - Democrats

Probability of winning:

Hillary Clinton - 82%
Bernie Sanders - 18%

The estimated results are:

Hillary Clinton - 51.1%
Bernie Sanders - 39.9%
Martin O'Malley - 7.1%

New Hampshire Primary - Republicans

Probability of winning:

Donald Trump - 39%
Marco Rubio - 21%
Ted Cruz - 13%
John Kasich - 11%
Chris Christie - 7%
Jeb Bush - 6%
Rand Paul - 1%

The estimated results are:

Donald Trump - 22.9%
Marco Rubio - 17.2%
Ted Cruz - 14.0%
John Kasich - 12.5%
Chris Christie - 10.1%
Jeb Bush - 9.4%
Rand Paul - 4.6%
Carly Fiorina - 3.4%
Ben Carson - 3.0%
Mike Huckabee - 1.8%
Rick Santorum - 1.0%

New Hampshire Primary - Democrats

Probability of winning:

Hillary Clinton - 57%
Bernie Sanders - 43%

The estimated results are:

Hillary Clinton - 48.0%
Bernie Sanders - 45.8%
Martin O'Malley - 4.1%

If after New Hampshire, if not after Iowa, Carson, Fiorina, Huckabee and Santorum don't drop out they will be demonstrating they're not interested in what makes the most sense for the nomination process but only in their own egos.

On the Democratic side O'Malley should give it a rest.

The Endorsement Sweepstakes
 FiveThirtyEight.com has also been tracking endorsements. They have been assigning points as follows:

Governors - 10 pts
Senators - 5 pts
Representatives - 1 pt

Republicans
Jeb Bush - 46
Marco Rubio - 43
Chris Christie - 26
Mike Huckabee - 26
John Kasich - 20
Ted Cruz - 15
Rand Paul - 15
Carly Fiorina - 3
Rick Santorum - 1
Donald Trump - 0
Ben Carson - 0

Democrats
Hillary Clinton - 457
Bernie Sanders - 2
Martin O'Malley - 1

Fascinating how the professional politicians have such a different view of the world than us riffraff huh?

College Football Poll - Final

Alabama tops Clemson 45-40 in what may have been one of the most entertaining football games I've seen in a long time. Talk about leaving everything on the field!

The big hero of course was Alabama tight end O.J. Howard with two 50+ yard touchdown catches AND a 63 yard rumble down the sideline late in the 4th quarter to help Bama almost finish Clemson off.

I say almost because as incredible as it seems down 45-33, 1:22 left and no time outs Clemson managed a score with 17 seconds left to make it 45-40. But Clemson couldn't pull off the onside kick which would have given them a shot at a Hail Mary.

Speaking of onside kicks, how'd you like Saban's surprise onside kick with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter and the score tied at 24-24?

I am impressed with a whole bunch of Alabama and Clemson defensive players and a number of standout offensive players.

Obviously there is Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry, but I was really impressed with Clemson quarterback DeShaun Watson as well.

Oh well, so much for the College Football Poll thing. It was almost as much fun as the World Cup. Maybe I'll play this game again next year.

Let the Games begin...

Well it's January and the presidential races are about to get real. I've sort of ignored the whole fiasco since mid November but I can no longer in good conscience continue to do so.

So where are we?

The biggest surprise has been on the Democratic side where Bernie Sanders is now apparently making it a race. The last national poll (IBD/TIPP) shows Clinton's lead having shrunk. The latest numbers were:

Clinton - 43%
Sanders - 39%

I am a bit suspicious of these numbers however because they show double digit shifts in the Northeast and West yet it's difficult to account for why this should have happened in the last month. It sounds like too great a shift without any clear driving factor. Vut, IBD/TIPP has a pretty good track record for accuracy.

On the Republican side the same poll shows:

Trump - 34%
Cruz - 18%
Rubio - 9%
Carson - 8%

However the poll has a 4.9% margin of error on the Republican side and a 5.1% margin of error on the Democratic side.

So do I still think Bush and Clinton? Yes I do and here's why. I don't think Sanders can win a national election and the powers that be in the Democratic party know that. Look for Sanders to get swamped down the road.

On the Republican side Trump's support is coming from the least educated portions of the Republican Party. He polls highest among people in the $30,000 to $50,000 income range and evangelicals are at best lukewarm to him.

Rubio could have been a good establishment compromise but his financial skeletons in the closet are too much of a liability. Cruz is a nutcase. So that still leaves Bush for the money to eventually solidify behind. If not Bush, then look for Paul Ryan to emerge late.

But now here's a second question? Am I as confident as I was? Oh, not even close. I'm beginning to think this might all be wishful thinking on my part.

I have to admit that I'm wondering what a Trump vs. Sanders election might look like? I was always concerned that a Trump vs. Clinton election could well degrade into a national disgrace but Sanders head to head with Trump might even be worse.

Abbott and the Constitution

Greg Abbott, the Governor of Texas, thinks we should amend the Constitution. He wants to call a Constitutional Convention to add not one, not two, but nine amendments.

1.Prohibit Congress from regulating activity that occurs wholly within one State.
And then spend thousands upon thousands of hours in court arguing over what is or isn't "activity that occurs wholly within one state?

2.Require Congress to balance its budget.
So that when we go to war we can't engage in any deficit spending? Actually, add some sort of escape clause that requires a two-thirds majority of Congress and I might go for this one.

3.Prohibit administrative agencies—and the unelected bureaucrats that staff them—from creating federal law.
They don't create law. They create regulations. Why? Because they're supposed to be experts in the area they're regulating. Besides, you don't need an amendment. Congress can always limit the scope and authority of any federal agency.

4.Prohibit administrative agencies—and the unelected bureaucrats that staff them—from preempting state law.
See answer to #3 above.

5.Allow a two-thirds majority of the States to override a U.S. Supreme Court decision.
See "Tyranny of the Majority." Such an amendment would essentially cripple the court. Besides, It's not necessary. If the SCOTUS does something that no one likes, either Congress can pass a new law or the Constitution can be amended. Why add a way to go around the current Constitution?

6.Require a seven-justice super-majority vote for U.S. Supreme Court decisions that invalidate a democratically enacted law.
See answer to #5 above. This just allows the country to be held captive by three judges.

7.Restore the balance of power between the federal and state governments by limiting the former to the powers expressly delegated to it in the Constitution.
There never was any "balance of power." See the Supremacy Clause of the US Constitution.

8.Give state officials the power to sue in federal court when federal officials overstep their bounds.
I'm pretty sure they can already do that.

9.Allow a two-thirds majority of the States to override a federal law or regulation. 
And here I thought the process was to vote out the bums that passed that law and replace them with people in Congress and the presidency that will rectify the situation. Again, why add another process when one already exists?

This is an example of someone who has decided that he can't win based upon the current rules so he wants to change the rules to something he thinks will work out better for him.

If you can get two-thirds of the states to agree on these things then electing the right Congress and President to do what you want shouldn't be that hard.

Why not just go back to the Article of Confederation if you want a system that doesn't work?

So here are Conservatives,  the people who always claim to be defending the Constitution, even though most of them haven't even read it, looking for a way to change it so extensively it would cease to be the Constitution.

I have a better idea. Texas, you keep talking about seceding, so GTFO already.

Talking Evolution

From time to time I will fall into the trap of trying to explain science in general and the Theory of Evolution in particular to someone who thinks the creation myth in Genesis should be accepted as literally true.

It's always an effort in futility. The ignorance level of these people and their inability to even comprehend simple English is utterly astounding.

It's not that they're stupid or illiterate, it's that they have been taught a certain way to view things and have been taught a whole bunch of stuff that's so absurd that's it's not even wrong. They just can't seem to wrap their heads around anything that contradicts what they've been taught and there is no amount of evidence that you can present to convince them.

I'm not even talking about whether evolution is true or not but about what evolution actually says. I just went around in circles with a guy that could not get the idea through his head that evolution does not say that dogs turn into cats.

Nor could he comprehend the idea that if you make a positive assertion about anything, you have the burden of proof to provide evidence to justify that assertion.

Evolution is not that complicated a concept yet your average Evangelical Christian seems incapable of understanding even the basics. I swear that I often think some of stuff they come up with has to be satire. Poe was right. You can't come up with a parody of a fundamentalist Christian that someone won't think is real.

College Football Poll 1/1/2016

Well, if two teams ever made it abundantly clear they belonged in a title game it was Clemson and Alabama last night.

Clemson sent Oklahoma packing 37-17 and then Alabama ran rings around Michigan State 38-0.

Now it's on to the title game January 11 in Phoenix.

This one should be fun. Dominant defense vs. flamboyant offense and you know what they say, offense wins games but defense wins championships.

I'm going with Alabama to beat Clemson.

Professor Suspended for Islam Comments

A tenured political science professor at Wheaton College, an evangelical university outside Chicago, has been suspended after she wrote in a Facebook post that Muslims and Christians worship the same God.

Dr. Larycia Hawkins went on to say that she was donning the hijab during Advent as a sign of solidarity with Muslims.

Well now, isn't this special?

Wheaton College said that she was on administrative leave "In response to significant questions regarding the theological implications of statements that Associate Professor of Political Science Dr. Larycia Hawkins has made about the relationship of Christianity to Islam..."

According to the college when they participate in causes, faculty and staff must faithfully represent the school's evangelical statement of faith. I suspect that it is the first part of the first paragraph of that statement of faith that Hawkins may have run afoul of.

"WE BELIEVE in one sovereign God, eternally existing in three persons: the everlasting Father, His only begotten Son, Jesus Christ our Lord, and the Holy Spirit, the giver of life;"

Muslims think the concept of the Trinity is illogical, lacks common sense and is even blasphemous. I certain agree that it's illogical and lacks common sense. Three isn't one and one isn't three. I might point out that Jews don't think much of the Trinity either but no one questions the idea that the Jewish God and the Christian God are the same God.

Let's understand that Wheaton College is a hotbed of lunacy. A hive of scum, villainy and ignorance that pollutes the country with its idiocy. We'd all be better off if they shut it down but, that's not likely to happen.

How an institute of "higher education" can declare the following, also in its statement of faith, simply boggles the mind.

"WE BELIEVE that God directly created Adam and Eve, the historical parents of the entire human race; and that they were created in His own image, distinct from all other living creatures, and in a state of original righteousness."

Then there's this one from the same statement of faith.

"WE BELIEVE in the existence of Satan, sin, and evil powers, and that all these have been defeated by God in the cross of Christ."

Well then why the fuck is sin and evil, mostly perpetrated by Christians, still alive and kicking?

Given this sort of crap it's terrifying to think how they're "educating" their students. I can only imagine what their biology classes look like.

OK, enough bashing of Christian "education."

"Allah" is simply the word for God like  "Dios" in Spanish and "Dieu" in French. Here's a hint, these are not four different "Gods." Even Arabic speaking Christians would call "God" "Allah" and the word was used by Arabic Christians long before Islam.

I never thought there was much question among educated people that the God of Jews, Christians and Muslims was the same "God" and it was only the under 80 IQ Republican base that thought otherwise.

Apparently Wheaton College isn't so sure either.

Now personally I don't give a crap if we're talking about one imaginary friend or two different imaginary friends. I'm just stunned to see how far into ignorance we've fallen.

No Muslims Allowed?

Apparently Donald Trump thinks it would be a good idea if Muslims weren't allowed entry into the US. The man is afraid there might be a terrorist or two hiding among the student visa applicants.

I suppose next would be not allowing Muslims who are US citizens and living in the US to leave. I mean there's no guarantee they're not going to be turned into wide eyed radicals while they're out of the country.

Come to think of it, how can we trust them even while they're in the country? I know, how about we round them up and put in special places where we can keep an eye on them. We'll call the special places Concentration Camps...oh wait.

I prefer to judge each individual on his or her own merits. I have no patience for Islam just like I have no patience for any religion but you could make a case that aspects of Islam make it worse than most other religions given it's history of militant jihad and little associated cultural gems such as honor killings.

But I draw the line at guilt by association. There are realistic and unrealistic concerns. What is it about conservatives that they seem to have a pathological need to constantly be afraid?

In the meantime Cruz and Huckabee think they can simply ignore Supreme Court decisions. Cruz wants to extend 14th Amendment rights to fetuses which he thinks would effectively overturn Roe v. Wade.

Of course it wouldn't because no legislative law can overrule the Constitution. You would need some sort of Constitutional amendment. I find it hard to believe Cruz has a law degree.

Huckabee thinks he can eliminate abortions and gay rights through executive order.

Huckabee and Cruz are both idiots.

Even Jeb Bush, who I thought might be an adult, suggests we allow only Christian Syrian refugees to enter the country. When asked how he was going to tell the difference, he went hem, haw, hem, hem.

The one good thing about Trump is he is pulling all the racists and bigots out of the closet. He's like sugar being dropped on the floor of a roach infested kitchen. He's making it "OK" for the scum of the country to show their true colors.

College Football Poll 12/8/2015

OK, so they had to toss in one little wrinkle. They moved Michigan State ahead of Oklahoma.

#1 - Clemson (13-0)
#2 - Alabama (12-1)
#3 - Michigan State (12-1)
#4 - Oklahoma (11-1)

Honestly, that makes no sense to me whatsoever. If Oklahoma was ahead of Iowa, why does Michigan State jump ahead of Oklahoma for beating Iowa?

I suppose it has something to do with Michigan State having a tougher schedule than Iowa which was my rationale for picking them to win in the first place.

Anyway, we're set to go.

Oklahoma will play Clemson in the Orange Bowl on Dec. 31 at 4 PM and Michigan State will play Alabama on the same day in the Cotton Bowl at 8 PM. Of course you'll need access to ESPN to watch the games.

The Championship Game will be on Jan. 11 in Glendale at University of Phoenix Stadium. I'm going to go with Clemson and Alabama meeting in this game.

College Football Poll 12/5/2015

Well Alabama took care of business in the early game beating Florida 29-16.

The game between Iowa and Michigan State was a beaut coming down to trench play inside the 5 yard line with State trying to punch it in and Iowa trying to hold on. Ultimately it was too much to ask of the Iowa defense and Michigan State won 16-13.

Clemson held on over North Carolina 45-37. Things might have gotten scary is NC had managed to recover the onside kick but it was not to be.

So it's all over but the kicking and screaming and it's time for the fat lady to get ready to sing. It's going to be:

#1 - Clemson (13-0)
#2 - Alabama (12-1)
#3 - Oklahoma (11-1)
#4 - Michigan State (12-1)

Gee, where Have I seen that before? Any other alignment would make no sense whatsoever.

An ISIS Connection?

Updated information about the San Bernadino shooting has verified that one of the shooters was indeed Syed Farook who worked for the Inland Regional Center and the other was his wife Tashfeen Malik.

There are rumors that Malik, who was Pakistani and met Farook in Saudi Arabia, had "pledged allegiance" to Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a Facebook posting Wednesday.

Other reports claim that Farook destroyed computer hard drives and other electronics prior to the attack and had left the party at the social services center after an argument with someone who supposedly denounced the "inherent dangers of Islam."

Now, let's note that none of these reports have been substantiated regardless of the fact they are claimed to be from US government sources but Fox News is already broadcasting the Malik pledge as fact.

Assuming that these reports if not 100% accurate are at least close to the truth, then we have a case of radicalized Muslims at least sympathetic to ISIS possibly being set off by a workplace argument.

Whether there was any formal contact between Malik and ISIS is yet to be seen.

This is an attack on a soft target consistent with the attacks in Paris so it wouldn't particularly surprise me if it was at least indirectly related to an ISIS campaign even though the precise target and timing may have been triggered by the argument.

You cannot protect all of the soft targets. There are simply too many of them. You have to focus on not allowing potential terrorists to amass the means to make such an attack.

Unfortunately that's a lot easier said than done.

Another Mass Shooting

This one in San Bernadino California where two, and perhaps three, people armed with rifles opened fire at a holiday party for county health workers.

At least 14 people were killed and 17 wounded.

Police have reportedly killed two suspects and arrested a third person. One police officer was wounded in the shootout.

Those are the basics as they are understood at this moment.

Other reports claim that there was an argument at a party and one person left. If that person was one of the gunman is not known. Police identified one of the suspects as one Syed Farook. A Syed Farook apparently worked at the center where the shooting took place but no one has verified they're the same person.

I'd say it's pretty likely. How many Syed Farooks you think there are in San Bernadino?

I'm not going to go into the whole gun control thing. I can't wait to hear the wing nuts say more guns are the solution because if people at the center had been armed then yada, yada, yada.

This whole cowboy mentality doesn't work. If everyone pulls out a gun how do you tell the so-called "good guys" from the "bad guys?"

Then again no one ever accused conservatives of being capable of performing even the most rudimentary logical analysis when it comes to one of their wing nut issues.

And please don't tell me "guns don't kill people kill." Because without the guns, people wouldn't be able to kill this way. Yes you can kill with other stuff but only guns are designed for the sole purpose of killing.

I haven't heard anything about motive. One would think it would have to have been a really big argument to lead to this sort of nonsense but I suppose it's possible. I'm sure we'll learn more in the coming days.

College Football Poll 12/1/2015

As expected the top four remained unchanged at:

#1 - Clemson (12-0)
#2 - Alabama (11-1)
#3 - Oklahoma (11-1)
#4 - Iowa (12-0) 

The key conference championship games this week will be:

#1 - Clemson (12-0) will host North Carolina (11-1)
#2 - Alabama (11-1) will host Florida (10-2)
#4 - Iowa (12-0) will host Michigan State (11-1)

Oklahoma is finished and should secure a playoff birth. The winner of Iowa vs Michigan State should the second birth. If Clemson and Alabama win they will have the final two births.

If Alabama loses to Florida, I don't see Florida leaping up from #18. In this event I would expect Ohio State to sneak back in or possibly Stanford if they have a big day against USC in the PAC-10 championship.

If Clemson loses, things get interesting. You could make a case for North Carolina, Ohio State, Stanford if they win big over USC or even simply dropping Clemson to the #4 spot.

I expect the day to end up as follows:

#1 - Clemson (13-0)
#2 - Alabama (12-1)
#3 - Oklahoma (11-1)
#4 - Michigan State (12-1)

College Football Poll 11/29/2015

Well, the last full schedule of games is over with the following results.

#1 - Clemson (12-0) beat South Carolina (3-8) 37-32
#2 - Alabama (11-1) beat Auburn (6-6) 29-13
#3 - Oklahoma (11-1) beat Oklahoma State (10-2) 58-23
#4 - Iowa (12-0)  beat Nebraska (5-7) 28-20
#5 - Michigan State (11-1) beat Penn State (7-5) 55-16
#6 - Notre Dame  (10-2) LOST to Stanford (10-2)  38-36
#7 - Baylor  (9-2) LOST to TCU (10-2) 28-21
#8 - Ohio State (11-1) beat Michigan (9-3) 42-13
#9 - Stanford (10-2) beat Notre Dame (10-2) 38-36
#10 - Michigan (9-3) lost to Ohio State 42-13

I see any reason to change the top four so I'm thinking they stay the same. Next week are the conference championship games and Clemson, Alabama and Iowa are all playing.

#1 - Clemson (12-0) will host North Carolina (11-1)
#2 - Alabama (11-1) will host Florida (10-2)
#4 - Iowa (12-0) will host Michigan State (11-1)

Clearly the most interesting game here is Iowa vs. Michigan State.  With State hovering just outside playoff territory and #5 the winner secures a birth. I doubt that either Clemson or Alabama are going to get tripped up but you never know.

I suppose Oklahoma is in since they're done with their schedule. For them to lose a spot now would make just about everyone question the sanity of the playoff committee process.

Of the teams sitting on the fringe I suspect that Ohio State has the best long shot of getting in if Alabama loses to Florida.

Assuming Clemson and Alabama win then the final four should be a non-controversial no-brainer with Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and the winner of Iowa vs Michigan State.

College Football Poll 11/24/2015

Wow Notre Dame's lackluster performance against Boston College really did hurt then. In the new poll they dropped behind Oklahoma, Iowa and Michigan State. Florida got hurt big time as well dropping out of the top 10 altogether.

Ok, in the latest poll things look like this:

#1 - Clemson (11-0) (NC)
#2 - Alabama (10-1) (NC)
#3 - Oklahoma (10-1) (+4)
#4 - Iowa (11-0)  (+1)
#5 - Michigan State (10-1) (+4)
#6 - Notre Dame  (10-1) (-2)
#7 - Baylor  (9-1) (+3)
#8 - Ohio State (10-1) (-5)
#9 - Stanford (9-2) (+2)
#10 - Michigan (9-2) (+2)

I have to admit that I don't see why Oklahoma State dropped all the way to 11th behind two 9-2 teams because of a loss to Baylor nor why Stanford's win over unranked California and Michigan's win over unranked Penn State was enough to allow them to break into the top 10. Neither the AP nor USA Today polls had that sort of volatility.

Anyway, like I said, it ain't up to me. So what are the games this week?

#1 - Clemson (11-0) is at South Carolina (3-8)
#2 - Alabama (10-1) is at Auburn (6-5)
#3 - Oklahoma (10-1) is at Oklahoma State (10-1)
#4 - Iowa (11-0)  is at Nebraska (5-6)
#5 - Michigan State (10-1) is at Penn State (7-4)
#6 - Notre Dame  (10-1) is at Stanford (9-2)
#7 - Baylor  (9-1) is at TCU (9-2)
#8 - Ohio State (10-1) is at Michigan (9-2)
#9 - Stanford (9-2) will host Notre Dame (10-1)
#10 - Michigan (9-2) will host Ohio State

Oh aren't there some interesting ones this weekend?  Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State should be fascinating as should Notre Dame vs Stanford and then there's always Ohio State vs Michigan.

Best chances for a big upset? I'm thinking Baylor vs TCU and Iowa vs Nebraska.

This is really the last full schedule. The following week there are conference championship games and Clemson and Baylor both have final games which could be significant if something weird happens.

The final week is reserved for Army vs Navy and I don't see 2-9 Army having much of a shot against 9-1 Navy so I'm guessing Navy gets to sing 2nd for the 14th straight season.

But hey, you never know. That's why you have to play the game.

The Syrian Refugee Question

Let's start with an observation. Conservatives are afraid of their own shadows. They seem to have a psychological need to be afraid of something.

They're afraid of going to hell. A place for which there is zero evidence that it exists.

They're afraid of racial diversity.

They're afraid of gays marrying.

They were utterly terrified of Ebola.

They're afraid of immigrants.

They're afraid of Muslims.

And now they're apparently afraid of Syrian refugees including 5 year old orphans.

Look, you can come up with nightmare scenarios easily enough. The question becomes how realistic are those scenarios? Are your fears rational or irrational?

Life has risks. You can't eliminate every risk. You can mitigate them and you can take reasonable precautions but if you allow yourself to give in to irrational fears you'll paralyze yourself.

Some of the analogies have been utterly ridiculous. Mike Huckabee asked if 3% of the peanuts in a bag were poisonous would you let your children eat a peanut out of that bag?

The answer is obviously no but, and this is the big but, the odds presented by Huckabee are several orders of magnitude higher than the risk of a terrorist sneaking in with refugees and, while Huckabee's example results in a certain bad result, even if a terrorist got in it doesn't mean he's going to successfully cause a problem.

In other words while 3% poison peanuts is a rational fear, the fear of 5 year old Syrian orphans is just plain irrational.

I saw a video of a Republican politician whining about not knowing the vetting process. Well John Oliver on HBO appears to know what it is and gave a summary of it the other night. I'm not sure I could pass that process.

Tell you what. Why don't you "big," "brave" (*cough, cough) gun nuts go hide in the closet and shiver in terror. We'll protect you and tell you when it's safe to come out. That will probably be a week or two after the next election.

College Football Poll 11/22/2015

Going into Saturday's games we had the top ten as:

#1 - Clemson (NC)
#2 - Alabama (NC)
#3 - Ohio State (NC)
#4 - Notre Dame (NC)
#5 - Iowa (NC)
#6 - Oklahoma State (+2)
#7 - Oklahoma (+5)
#8 - Florida (+3)
#9 - Michigan State (+4)
#10 - Baylor (-4)

But given the results there are about to be some changes.

Michigan State (10-1) beat Ohio State (10-1) on a last second field goal 17-14
Baylor (9-1) beat Oklahoma State (10-1) 45-35.
Oklahoma (10-1) beat TCU (9-2) 30-29
Notre Dame (10-1) squeaked by Boston College (3-8) 19-16
Florida (10-1) needed OT to beat Florida Atlantic (2-9) 20-14

Elsewhere things went about as expected.

Clemson (11-0) beat Wake Forest (3-8) 33-13
Alabama (10-1) steamrolled Charleston Southern (9-2) 56-6
Iowa (11-0) beat Purdue (2-9) 40-20

So now what? Notre Dame played ugly with five turnovers but they did win and Florida played almost as ugly but they also managed to win. Do you penalize them for playing ugly against opponents they should have handled more easily? Do you promote Michigan State over Iowa?

If it were up to me I'd go with:

#1 - Clemson (11-0) (NC)
#2 - Alabama (10-1) (NC)
#3 - Notre Dame (10-1) (+1)
#4 - Iowa (11-0)  (+1)
#5 - Michigan State (10-1) (+4)
#6 - Oklahoma  (10-1) (+1)
#7 - Ohio State  (10-1) (-4)
#8 - Baylor (9-1) (+2)
#9 - Oklahoma State (10-1) (-3)
#10 - Florida (10-1) (-2)

Luckily it's not up to me.

College Football Poll 11/17/2015

In the 11/10 poll the top ten schools were (change in parentheses):

#1 - Clemson (NC)
#2 - Alabama (NC)
#3 - Ohio State (NC)
#4 - Notre Dame (NC)
#5 - Iowa (NC)
#6 - Oklahoma State (+2)
#7 - Oklahoma (+5)
#8 - Florida (+3)
#9 - Michigan State (+4)
#10 - Baylor (-4)

If it looks familiar it's because it's exactly what I predicted the other day. See, anybody can get lucky on occasion.

So, what are the big games this weekend?

#1 - Clemson (10-0) will host Wake Forest (3-7) 
#2 - Alabama (9-1) will host Charleston Southern (9-1)
#3 - Ohio State (10-0) will host Michigan State (9-1) 
#4 - Notre Dame (9-1) will host Boston College (3-7) 
#5 - Iowa (10-0) will host Purdue (2-8) 
#6 - Oklahoma State (10-0) will host Baylor (8-1)
#7 - Oklahoma (9-1) will host TCU (9-1)
#8 - Florida (9-1) will host Florida Atlantic (2-8)
#9 - Michigan State (9-1) is at Ohio State (10-0)
#10 - Baylor (8-1) is at Oklahoma State (10-0)

All the top ten games are important but the big ones have to be:

Michigan State at Ohio State
Baylor at Oklahoma State
TCU at Oklahoma

If you're looking for big upset territory I'd keep an eye on Purdue at Iowa and Boston College at Notre Dame. I doubt that Clemson, Alabama or Florida will work up much of a sweat but, hey, you never know. That's why you have to play the game.

Jindel is Out

Bobby Jindel finally figured out that not even Republicans are stupid enough to think he should be president and has dropped out of the race.

So who's left?

In alphabetical order on the Republican side:

1. Jeb Bush - Mr. Snooze
2. Ben Carson - Mr. Delusional
3. Chris Christie - Mr. Stay out of NJ
4. Ted Cruz - Mr. Whack Job
5. Carly Fiorina - Ms. I Screwed HP
6. Lindsay Graham - Mr. Forlorn Hope
7. Mike Huckabee - Mr. Big Moron
8. John Kasich - Mr. Unreadable
9. George Patacki - Mr. Silence
10. Rand Paul - Mr. Loopy as Daddy
11. Marco Rubio - Mr. Kid with a Charge Card
12. Rick Santorum - Mr. Upchuck
13. Donald Trump - Mr. Boss

On the Democrat side:

1. Hillary Clinton - Ms. Benghazi Kid
2. Martin O'Malley - Mr. Who?
3. Bernie Sanders - Mr. Das Kapital

I'm still betting it will be Bush and Clinton.

The Attacks in Paris

ISIS has taken "credit" for a series of terrorist attacks in Paris that's left some 130 dead.

The dead are unarmed civilians at soft targets of no military value. Attacks were staged at a rock concert and two restaurants.

In response the gun nuts are implying that somehow if the Parisians were armed things would have been better. The fact is that when people start pulling out guns how do you tell the difference between a terrorist and someone else that pulled out a gun?

ISIS is threatening to attack Washington D.C. next.

The problem of course is that soft targets are almost impossible to defend. There are too many of them and they're too vulnerable. At Sunday's NFL game between the Patriots and Giants there were noticeably more state troopers but they can't be everywhere.

Logically they would tend to congregate near the stadium. It would be almost impossible to get weapons or a bomb through the security checkpoints but someone could easily open fire in the parking lots. It would just cost $30 to get in.

I'm wondering if these attacks and threats are a sign of growing strength or a sign of desperation?

They have to know there's going to be increased military action in response.

Something like ISIS was always the danger in kicking out Saddam Hussein. Granted his time was numbered in any event and an ISIS was always a possibility when he was eventually booted out of office.

I sort of have the same opinion about Assad. What do you think is going to replace him?

College Football Poll 11/14/2015

Going into today we had the Top 10 as:

#1 - Clemson (NC)
#2 - Alabama (+2)
#3 - Ohio State (NC)
#4 - Notre Dame (+1)
#5 - Iowa (+4)
#6 - Baylor (NC)
#7 - Stanford (+4)
#8 - Oklahoma State (+6)
#9 - LSU (-7)
#10 - Utah (+2)

The game results were as follows:

#1 - Clemson (10-0) beat Syracuse (3-7) 37-27
#2 - Alabama (9-1) beat Mississippi State (7-3) 31-6
#3 - Ohio State (10-0) beat Illinois (5-5) 28-3
#4 - Notre Dame (9-1) beat Wake Forest (3-7) 28-7
#5 - Iowa (10-0) beat Minnesota (4-6) 40-35
#6 - Baylor (8-1) LOST to Oklahoma (8-1)  44-34
#7 - Stanford (8-2) LOST to Oregon (7-3) 38-36
#8 - Oklahoma State (10-0) beat Iowa State (3-7) 35-31
#9 - LSU (7-2) LOST to Arkansas (6-4) 31-14
#10 - Utah (8-2) LOST to Arizona (6-5) 37-30

With four of the top 10 schools losing on Saturday we can expect some shuffling in the #6 through #10 slots. I would think Oklahoma with it's defeat of Baylor should take a jump along with Michigan State. TCU was unimpressive beating a winless Kansas 23-17 but a win is a win.

I don't see the top five changing so let's predict the top 10 as:

#1 - Clemson
#2 - Alabama
#3 - Ohio State
#4 - Notre Dame
#5 - Iowa
#6 - Oklahoma State
#7 - Oklahoma
#8 - Florida
#9 - Michigan State
#10 - Baylor

You could make an argument that #10 should be TCU rather than Baylor but, like I said, they weren't very impressive against Kansas. One could also argue that Oklahoma State should be higher but I don't see that sort of change yet.

College Football Poll 11/10/2015

I suppose it's a good thing I'm not a betting man. In the 11/10 poll the top ten schools were (change in parentheses):

#1 - Clemson (NC)
#2 - Alabama (+2)
#3 - Ohio State (NC)
#4 - Notre Dame (+1)
#5 - Iowa (+4)
#6 - Baylor (NC)
#7 - Stanford (+4)
#8 - Oklahoma State (+6)
#9 - LSU (-7)
#10 - Utah (+2)

I have to admit I didn't think LSU would drop seven spots for losing to Alabama and I'm a bit mystified as to why Iowa jumped ahead of Baylor but what do I know?

The AP poll is still pretty different but at least there's now agreement on #1 and Alabama is in the top four.

#1 - Clemson (+2)
#2 - Ohio State (-1)
#3 - Alabama (+5)
#4 - Baylor (-2)
#5 - Oklahoma State (+7)
#6 - Notre Dame (+2)
#7 - Stanford (+2)
#8 - Iowa (+2)
#9 - LSU (-5)
#10 - Utah (+3)

The most interesting game coming up this weekend looks to be Baylor vs Oklahoma. Another possible interesting one could be Alabama vs Mississippi State. The rest of the top ten teams appear to be playing games they should win handily but, you never know. That's why you have to play the game.

College Football Poll #2

The 1st College Football Playoff Poll had the following schools in the top 10.

#1 - Clemson (8-0)
#2 - LSU (7-0) 
#3 - Ohio State (8-0) 
#4 - Alabama (7-1) 
#5 - Notre Dame (7-1)
#6 - Baylor (7-0)
#7 - Michigan State (8-0)
#8 - TCU (8-0)
#9 - Iowa (8-0)
#10 - Florida (7-1)

Only the top four will make it to the National Championship playoff. The AP list was slightly different.

#1 - Ohio State (8-0) 
#2 - Baylor (7-0)
#3 - Clemson (8-0) 
#4 - LSU (7-0) 
#5 - TCU (8-0)
#6 - Michigan State (8-0)
#7 - Alabama (7-1) 
#8 - Notre Dame (7-1)
#9 - Stanford (7-1)
#10 - Iowa (8-0)

Here's how things went for the top 10 teams yesterday.

#1 - Clemson (9-0) beat Florida State (7-2) - 23-13
#2 - LSU (7-1) lost to #4 Alabama (8-1) - 30-16
#3 - Ohio State (9-0) beat Minnesota (4-5) - 28-14
#5 - Notre Dame (8-1) beat Pittsburgh (6-3) - 42-30
#6 - Baylor (8-0) beat Kansas State (3-5) - 31-24
#7 - Michigan State (8-1) lost to Nebraska (4-6) - 39-38
#8 - TCU (8-1) lost to Oklahoma State - 49-29
#9 - Iowa (9-0) beat Indiana (4-5) - 35-27
#10 - Florida (8-1) beat Vanderbilt (3-6) - 9-7

So Bama should move up and TCU and Michigan State should drop out of the top 10. Baylor didn't do much for its case and neither did Florida. If I was a betting man I would expect the top four next week to be:

#1 - Clemson (9-0)
#2 - Ohio State (9-0)
#3 - Alabama (8-1)
#4 - LSU (7-1)

There's an outside chance of Notre Dame taking over the #4 spot but I doubt it. I imagine Baylor isn't real happy being at #6 but I don't see that a 31-24 win over Kansas State does much for arguing they should move up.

College Football Poll

The 1st FBS College Football Playoff poll has been published.

I'm not a huge College Football fan but I do indulge occasionally. I think the college playoff system is a step in the right direction but given the subjectivity of the voting I don't think four spots is enough. Personally I think eight slots would be more representative.

Let's look at the initial 2015 poll. The top four schools were:

#1 - Clemson (8-0)
#2 - LSU (7-0)
#3 - Ohio State (8-0)
#4 - Alabama (7-1)

The next four were:

#5 - Notre Dame (7-1)
#6 - Baylor (7-0)
#7 - Michigan State (8-0)
#8 - TCU (8-0)

Now let's compare the latest AP Poll. The top four were:

#1 - Ohio State (8-0)
#2 - Baylor (7-0)
#3 - Clemson (8-0)
#4 - LSU (7-0)

The next four were:

#5 - TCU (8-0)
#6 - Michigan State (8-0)
#7 - Alabama (7-1)
#8 - Notre Dame (7-1)

The USA Today Coaches Poll had for the top four:

#1 - Ohio State (8-0)
#2 - Baylor (7-0)
#3 - TCU (8-0)
#4 - LSU (7-0)

The next four were:

#5 - Clemson (8-0)
#6 - Michigan State (8-0)
#7 - Alabama (7-1)
#8 - Stanford

So Clemson, ranked #1 in the FBS Poll didn't even make the top four in the Coaches Poll. Alabama, ranked #4 in the FBS Poll is 7th in both of the other two polls.

Now, granted it's still early so we shall see what we shall see. Notice that in an eight team playoff things would be consistent except for Stanford replacing Notre Dame in the Coaches Poll.

Ben Carson, lies, lies and more lies.

It seems every day a new allegation appears about a lie told by Ben Carson.

He was lying about his childhood.

He was lying about facing a gun wielding hold-up guy.

He was lying about his involvement with a rather suspect pharmaceutical company.

And now it appears he was lying about being accepted to West Point.

It also appears he thinks that the Great Pyramids in Egypt were for grain storage rather than being tombs for Pharaohs.

So Carson thinks he knows more about Ancient Egypt than Egyptologists. He rejects Evolution so he thinks he knows more about biology than Biologists and he can't do basic arithmetic because he thinks that a 10% flat tax at the federal level makes any sort of sense.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I believe that Carson is mentally ill and incapable of telling fact from fantasy. He should be under a doctor's care.

The fact that a plurality of Republicans seem to think he should be president should give you a pretty good idea of the idiocy of people who vote Republican.

Supreme Court to Rule on Contraception Mandate

Is it too much to ask a religious non-profit to submit a form in order to be exempt from providing contraception as part of its health care offering?

At least 10 religious non-profits claim that it is and that even submitting a form makes them complicit in contraception.

Up until recently the appeals courts have sided with the idea that submitting a form isn't too much to ask but now the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals has come down on the other side saying that forcing participation in the process under threat of a financial penalty violates the 1st Amendment.

This is a ridiculous argument. In any event these organizations are exempt from providing contraception. The only issue is whether they need to tell the government that. I don't see why the filing of the form can't be the responsibility of the employee seeking contraception. I would think that would resolve the issue.

Obama's Debt Increase

I keep running into pronouncements about how much Obama has increased the National Debt. It's as if these people think the President controls all spending.

Of course what they really mean in their confused little brains is how much the National Debt has increased while Obama has been president.

The latest pronouncement I've run into stated confidently that he has added $9 trillion and counting to the National Debt.

Let's take a closer look shall we.

Barack Obama took office in January of 2009 so I suppose it's safe to say that even the dumbest wing nut would concede that he's not responsible for any debt accrued prior to FY 2009. So let's look at the federal deficits between FY 2009 and FY 2015.

FY 2009 - $1.41 trillion
FY 2010 - $1.29 trillion
FY 2011 - $1.30 trillion
FY 2012 - $1.09 trillion
FY 2013 - $0.68 trillion
FY 2014 - $0.48 trillion
FY 2015 - $0.43 trillion

That comes out to $6.68 trillion. Already this is a lot less than $9 trillion.

But let's talk about FY 2009. This was a Bush budget calling for $3.1 trillion in expenditures and had some $240 billion added as a result of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in late 2008 and $200 billion from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), also known as The Stimulus, in 2009. So Obama is really only accountable for the $200 billion from ARRA.

That makes the total now $5.48 trillion. But let's remember that your starting point is important and the Obama Administration started with a $1.2 trillion dollar deficit and a shrinking economy in the throes of the Great Recession.

But let's continue a bit. The federal budget is divided into two parts. One part is Mandatory Spending, such as Social Security and Medicare, which MUST be spent by law. This is long term stuff that presidents don't control. The other part which changes from year to year is Discretionary Spending.

Mandatory Spending has been increasing at a steady rate since the mid-1980s not only in total amount but in percentage of the federal budget. This is a problem that requires a combined rational approach from both Congress and the president but is sort of beyond the current topic.

During FY 2010 through FY 2015 Mandatory Spending accounted for an average of about 58% of the federal budget. So it's reasonable to say it accounted for 58% of the deficits. That leaves us with $2.30 trillion.

But the Obama Administration also inherited two wars and a military budget of $661 billion including $145 billion allocated to the "War on Terror." This number has since declined to $597 billion in 2015 but still represents about 50% of all discretionary spending so we're now down to about $1.15 trillion over six years or about $200 billion per year in deficits that the man had any control over.

Personally I would have liked to see the deficit come down even faster. A balanced budget by now would have made me a happy man but to try and pin $9 trillion in additional debt on the president is simply nonsense.

The Middle East

What an absolute mess. This is the Balkans of the 21st Century.

Now apparently Iran is sending fighters to Syria to join the Russian ones already there. I think we should quietly sneak out while the sneaking is good and duck.

We've got constant war in both Iraq and Syria and that's not to mention the sniping going on between Israel and the Palestinians.

The problem with toppling a dictator, such as we did with Saddam Hussein in Iraq and people are trying to do with Assad in Syria, is if you succeed, somebody or something is going to fill the power vacuum.

Throw in a medieval mentality and a religion with a streak of militant jihad and this is just asking for trouble.

At least it's the countries in the immediate vicinity of ISIS that are taking on the fight. With the shorter supply lines and more at stake one would think they would by more effective.

Send weapons but bring any remaining troops, including aircraft, home already and feed some of the money we save into the economy through middle class tax cuts.

Three Months Later

Almost three months have passed since the Supreme Court made Gay Marriage legal in all 50 states and the echoes of descent are dimming but not quite out.

Yes Kim Davis became a Right Wing Darling for refusing marriage licenses in Kentucky but everyone else has pretty much ignored aberrations like this and moved on.

Which is not to say that some Republican politicians and Right Wing groups aren't attempting to make political capital or cash capital out of the decision by trying to bilk the under 80 IQ trailer park set that represents the Conservative base.

I expect the whining and occasional tantrum to continue for quite but I doubt it will ever have the emotional power of an issue like abortion. I suppose we shall see what we shall see.