Primary Predictions #3

Well, here we are, on the eve of the Iowa Caucuses. The final predictions for Iowa from  fivethirtyeight.com are as follows:

Iowa Caucases - Republicans  - Probability of winning:

Donald Trump - 48% (31%) +17
Ted Cruz - 40% (53%) -13
Marco Rubio - 11% (10%) +1
Ben Carson - 1% (3%) -2

Jeb Bush dropped of the list.

Iowa Caucases - Democrats - Probability of winning: 

Hillary Clinton - 79% (83%) -4
Bernie Sanders - 21% (17%) +4

To be quite honest with you this has been so volatile and there are so few people involved that even minor things could shift this one way or the other.

Predicted results are:

Donald Trump - 28.5
Ted Cruz - 25.2
Marco Rubio - 16.8
Ben Carson - 9.3
Jeb Bush - 4.7%
Rand Paul - 4.6%
Chris Christie 3.3%
Mike Huckabee - 3.0%
John Kasich 2.6%
Carly Fiorina - 2.4%
Rick Santorum - 1.4%

Hillary Clinton - 50.0%
Bernie Sanders - 43.1%
Martin O'Malley - 5.4%

Of course what would really shake things up would be is someone did significantly better, or worse, than expected.