CFP Semi-finals

Well, it seemed liked forever but December 28th has finally arrived. I decided my car could no longer be relied upon so I bought myself a 2020 Subaru Forester as a Christmas present. So, I'm officially broke.

December 28th, 4 PM - Peach Bowl, Atlanta

LSU - 63 (1) vs Oklahoma - 28 (4)

Oklahoma had no chance. With multiple missing defensive stars they were almost helpless against Joe Burrow and company. Burrow threw for 7 TD passes in the FIRST HALF.

December 28th, 8 PM - Fiesta Bowl, Glendale

Ohio State - 23 (2) vs Clemson - 29 (3)

Here's my call on this game over at the Washington Post.

"Clemson hasn't faced an opponent like Ohio State but I'm betting that once they get over the initial shock Lawrence and company will pull it out."

 So Ohio State builds a 16-0 lead and then wow, wow and wow. A targeting call after review on third down leads to a Clemson touchdown. A roughing the kicker penalty leads to a 99 yard drive and a Clemson touchdown. A catch, fumble and run for a touchdown gets negated after review eliminating an Ohio State touchdown.

Can I call them or can I call them. On to New Orleans. What a great game.

January 13, 8 PM - New Orleans

LSU (1) vs Clemson (3)

I'm going with LSU.

CFP Final Ranking

OK, so I was wrong and committee decided that LSU's crushing of Georgia combined with Ohio State's struggles with Wisconsin in the first half merited moving LSU back to #1. I disagree but it's their decision.

So the CFP teams will be:

#1 - LSU (13-0)
#2 - Ohio State (13-0)
#3 - Clemson (13-0)
#4 - Oklahoma (12-1)

Rounding out the top ten we have the following bridesmaids:

#5 - Georgia (11-2)
#6 - Oregon (11-2)
#7 - Baylor (11-2)
#8 - Wisconsin (10-3)
#9 - Florida (10-2)
#10 - Penn State (10-2)

I'm glad to see that Wisconsin wasn't penalized for losing to Ohio State and will represent the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl against Oregon which ain't a bad prize.

The CFP will be as follows:

December 28th, 4 PM - Peach Bowl, Atlanta
LSU (1) vs Oklahoma (4)

December 28th, 8 PM - Fiesta Bowl, Glendale
Ohio State (2) vs Clemson (3)

I'm going to go with LSU and Clemson which will set up a massive shoot-out for the championship game on January 13th in New Orleans.

CFP Ranking Week #5 Scores

The Championship Weekend results.

Utah - 15 (5) vs Oregon - 37 (13)
Baylor - 23 (7) vs Oklahoma - 30 (6) 1 OT
Georgia - 10 (4) vs LSU - 37 (2)
Virginia - 17 (23) vs Clemson - 62 (3)
Ohio State - 31 (1) vs Wisconsin - 21 (8)

It's Friday night and Utah won't be going to the CFP or the Rose Bowl. It will be Oregon to the Rose Bowl and the door may now be open for the winner of Baylor vs. Oklahoma.

Well, it's now close to 4 PM on Saturday, my car's transmission has conked out (again), Oklahoma has eliminated Baylor and now has to wait and see what happens with LSU and Georgia.

If the guys that fixed my transmission just a few months ago don't repair it this time for free I'm scrapping my car. It's 12 years old with 141,000 miles and I can afford a new one. That's doesn't mean I'm not really annoyed.

It's pushing 8 PM and LSU has made a statement over Georgia 37-10. Clemson has intercepted Virginia in the end zone a few minutes ago.

It's 8:40; Clemson is taking care of business over Virginia 17-7 but Wisconsin leads Ohio State 7-0 and has the ball.

Ohio State, trailing 14-0 and deep in their own territory, just ran a fake punt for a 1st down. Can you spell momentum change? Clemson is up 31-7 at halftime; Ohio State squandered the fake punt by fumbling at the Wisconsin 5 yard line.

Ohio State cut the lead to 14-7 but Wisconsin answered with a TD in the last 30 seconds of the half and went into halftime ahead 21-7.

Isn't this getting interesting?

I think it's safe to say that Clemson will beat Virginia as they're pulling away big time at 45-14 at the end of the 3rd quarter. But Ohio State and Wisconsin is not so obvious.

We're really down to two possibilities. Either Ohio State comes back to beat Wisconsin or Wisconsin upsets Ohio State.

In the first case I have to think that LSU goes to #1, Ohio State goes to #2, Clemson stays at #3 and Oklahoma gets the #4 spot.

If Wisconsin wins, then I think we get LSU at #1, Clemson at #2, Ohio State at #3 and Oklahoma at #4.

Personally, I think Ohio State comes back to win and, if they come back big enough, could even hold the #1 spot.

Ohio State had a huge 3rd quarter and now leads 24-17. Clemson finished off Virginia 62-17.

Ohio State utterly dominated Wisconsin the second half outscoring them 24-0 and coming back to win 31-21. I have to believe Ohio State will hold the #1 spot so I guessing the four playoff teams will be:

#1 - Ohio State (13-0)
#2 - LSU (13-0)
#3 - Clemson (13-0)
#4 - Oklahoma (12-1)

CFP Rankings Week #5

There were no real surprises.

#1 - Ohio State (12-0)
#2 - LSU (12-0)
#3 - Clemson (12-0)
#4 - Georgia (11-1)
#5 - Utah (11-1)
#6 - Oklahoma (11-1)
#7 - Baylor (11-1)
#8 - Wisconsin (10-2)
#9 - Florida (10-2)
#10 - Penn State (10-2)

So, on to Championship Weekend.

Utah (5) vs Oregon (13), Friday 8 PM.
Baylor (7) vs Oklahoma (6), Saturday 12 PM.
Georgia (4) vs LSU (2), Saturday 4 PM
Virginia (23) vs Clemson (3), Saturday 7:30 PM
Ohio State (1) vs Wisconsin (8), Saturday 8 PM

Oh boy. There are so many possibilities for chaos here.

The first question becomes what happens if Utah wins and Georgia loses? Could Utah jump Georgia? If Utah and Georgia lose is it possible the winner of Oklahoma-Baylor leapfrogs them both? What happens if Wisconsin beats Ohio State?

Ohio State handled Wisconsin pretty easily during the year 38-7. I don't see the change of venue making that big a difference so I think Ohio State stays #1.

I'm going to go with LSU over Georgia. The LSU defense may still be a bit questionable but I think their offense is going to put up points even against Georgia.

Dabo Swinney has Clemson motivated and pissed cause they don't get no respect. I think Virginia is in serious trouble.

Baylor gave up 17 unanswered points to Oklahoma in the forth quarter of their 1st game. I think this time around Baylor gets revenge.

As for Utah and Oregon, I just don't know enough about the two teams to hazard a guess.

CFP Rankings Week #4 Scores

The final scores after week #4. Top ten loses are in italics.

Ohio State- 56 at Michigan - 27 (13)
Texas A&M 7 at LSU - 50 
Clemson - 38 at South Carolina - 3
Georgia - 52 at Georgia Tech - 7
Alabama - 48 at Auburn - 45 (15) 
Colorado - 15 at Utah - 45
Oklahoma - 34 at Oklahoma State - 16 (21)
Wisconsin - 38 (12) at Minnesota - 17 
Baylor - 61 at Kansas - 6
Rutgers - 6 at Penn State - 27

So, Wisconsin wins the Big 10 West and will meet Ohio State next week. That could be interesting. In the meantime Alabama lost a wild one to Auburn so they are pretty much out of contention. Baylor will get another shot at Oklahoma and LSU will play Georgia after both had big wins.

So, Alabama should fall out of contention and Utah should move into the bridesmaid slot. I see no reason for LSU and Ohio State to switch places and none for Clemson and Georgia to switch places either.

#1 - Ohio State
#2 - LSU
#3 - Clemson
#4 - Georgia
#5 - Utah
#6 - Oklahoma

CFP Rankings Week #4

So Ohio State did move to number one. Penn State dropped to #10 and Oregon dropped all the way to #14. I had seen a prediction that Alabama would regain the #4 spot which made absolutely no sense to me so I'm glad it didn't happen.

#1 - Ohio State (11-0) 
#2 - LSU (11-0) 
#3 - Clemson (11-0) 
#4 - Georgia (10-1) 
#5 - Alabama (10-1) 
#6 - Utah (10-1) 
#7 - Oklahoma (10-1) 
#8 - Minnesota (10-1) 
#9 - Baylor (10-1)
#10 - Penn State (9-2)

Games for the top 10 this week.

Ohio State at Michigan (13)
Texas A&M at LSU 
Clemson at South Carolina
Georgia at Georgia Tech
Alabama at Auburn (15)
Colorado at Utah 
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (21)
Wisconsin (12) at Minnesota 
Baylor at Kansas
Rutgers at Penn State

So many big games and so little time. Wisconsin and Minnesota will decide who wins the Big 10 West and earns another shot at Ohio State. Ohio State has clinched the Big 10 East but has yet to play Michigan. Alabama gets Auburn and Oklahoma has to play Oklahoma State.

Oh there are so many interesting possibilities not only this week but the following week on Championship Saturday.

CFP Rankings Week #3 Scores

The final scores of the games after the week #2 rankings. Upsets are in italics.

Arkansas - 20 at LSU - 56
Penn State - 17 at Ohio State - 28
Clemson - Bye
Texas A&M - 13 at Georgia - 19
Western Carolina - 3 at Alabama - 66
Oregon - 28 at Arizona State - 31
Utah 35 at Arizona - 7
TCU - 24 at Oklahoma - 28
Minnesota - 38 at Northwestern - 22

Things went about as expected except for Oregon. QB Justin Herbert had an off night and I didn't know that Herm Edwards was the ASU head coach and now I do.

The Ohio State - Penn State game was a bit of a disappointment. I never felt that Ohio State was in jeopardy despite giving away three fumbles including a sure early touchdown. They were clearly the better team and clearly have a better defense than LSU. The offense, not so much. 

LSU had no problem with Arkansas and Alabama (*cough, cough*) won a 66-3 squeaker (*cough, cough*) over Western Carolina.

I think the win over Penn State should put Ohio State back in 1st so let's say the top six will be like this:

#1 - Ohio State
#2 - LSU
#3 - Clemson
#4 - Georgia
#5 - Alabama
#6 - Utah

I honestly think Ohio State is the more complete team and I would love to see LSU and Ohio State in the final. Of course Clemson and Georgia might have something to say about that.

CFP Rankings Week #3

Looks like the committee wasn't as concerned over LSU getting reamed by the Ole Miss running QB as I was as they're still #1. The only change was to drop Minnesota to #10 and kick Penn State and Oklahoma up one notch.

#1 - LSU (10-0)
#2 - Ohio State (10-0)
#3 - Clemson (11-0)
#4 - Georgia (9-1)
#5 - Alabama (9-1)
#6 - Oregon (9-1)
#7 - Utah (9-1)
#8 - Penn State (9-1)
#9 - Oklahoma (9-1)
#10 - Minnesota (9-1)

Games for the top ten this week.

Arkansas at LSU
Penn State at Ohio State
Clemson - Bye
Texas A&M at Georgia
Western Carolina at Alabama
Oregon at Arizona State
Utah at Arizona
TCU at Oklahoma
Minnesota at Northwestern

Obviously the biggest match will be Penn State at Ohio State. It's all on the line for Penn State and perhaps for Ohio State as well. I'm going with Ohio State in this one and a win should put them back at #1.

Texas A&M at Georgia could also be interesting and maybe (*cough, cough*) Western Carolina can beat Alabama (*cough, cough*).  Well, at least Mac Jones will get in an extra week before Auburn.

CFP Rankings Week #2 Scores

The final scores of the games after the week #2 rankings. Top ten team loses are in italics.

LSU - 58 at Mississippi - 37
Ohio State - 56 at Rutgers - 21
Wake Forest - 3 at Clemson - 52
Georgia - 21 at Auburn - 14 (12)
Alabama - 38 at Mississippi State - 7
Arizona - 6 at Oregon - 34
UCLA - 3 at Utah - 49
Minnesota -19 at Iowa - 23
Indiana - 27 at Penn State - 34
Oklahoma - 34 at Baylor - 31 (13)

The only top 10 team to lose was Minnesota so the Gophers lost their top ten position, their undefeated season and the hog in one afternoon. Oklahoma looked like they were in trouble for a while but ultimately pulled the game out.

Alabama lost Tua Tagovailoa for the rest of the season with a dislocated hip and possible posterior wall fracture. I say possible because the reports are inconsistent. Doctors say he'll fully recover but as a guy who had multiple shoulder dislocations let's just say I find that "fully" a tad questionable. I hope I'm wrong.

LSU at Ole Miss was a crazy affair including 94 points, over 1300 yards in total offense and over 200 yards rushing by the Mississippi QB John Rhys Plumlee. LSU won but it puts a bit of a question mark on its run defense. Joe Burrow also had a short span of being human when he threw two picks in the 4th quarter. I say "short" because he also threw for 489 yards and 5 TDs.

So what happens to the top six?

I've given up trying to understand how the committee thinks but what might happen is Ohio State going back to #1. 

Let's go with that and say it will look like this.

#1 - Ohio State
#2 - LSU
#3 - Clemson
#4 - Georgia
#5 - Alabama
#6 - Oregon

CFP Rankings Week #2

Well I was right about LSU taking over #1 but I'm a bit surprised that Alabama fell all the way to #5 and Georgia was moved up to #4. The LSU-Alabama game was competitive so I'm not sure why Alabama dropped two spots as a result. Minnesota got a lot of love for beating Penn State, enough to kick Florida out of the top ten.

#1 - LSU (9-0)
#2 - Ohio State (9-0)
#3 - Clemson (10-0)
#4 - Georgia (8-1)
#5 - Alabama (8-1)
#6 - Oregon (8-1)
#7 - Utah (8-1)
#8 - Minnesota (9-0)
#9 - Penn State (8-1)
#10 - Oklahoma (8-1)

Games for the top ten this weekend.

LSU at Mississippi
Ohio State at Rutgers
Wake Forest at Clemson
Georgia at Auburn (12)
Alabama at Mississippi State
Arizona at Oregon
UCLA at Utah
Minnesota at Iowa (20)
Indiana at Penn State
Oklahoma at Baylor (13)

Let's start with there ought to be a law against having Rutgers play Ohio State. State is something like a 52 point favorite. The question is can Rutgers keep Ohio State from scoring 100 points? Clemson and Wake Forest could be interesting even though the Tigers are 34 point favorites.

Georgia has a challenge at Auburn and that should be the best game of the top four teams. Minnesota has to try and avoid a big let down at Iowa.

CFP Ranking Week #1 Scores

The final scores of the games after the week #1 rankings. Upsets are in italics.

Maryland - 14 at Ohio State - 73
LSU - 46 at Alabama - 41
Penn State - 26 at Minnesota (17) - 31
Clemson - 55 at NC State - 10
Missouri - 0 at Georgia - 27
Iowa State - 28 at Oklahoma - 42
Oregon - Bye
Utah - Bye
Vanderbilt - 0 at Florida - 56

The big news was Minnesota's upset of Penn State moving the Gophers to 9-0 for the first time since 1904. Funny, it seems like yesterday.

The LSU vs. Alabama game was everything you could expect resulting in the highest point total ever in the 124 year history of the series.

So, how will this shake things up?

Obviously Penn State will fall out of the top 4 and will I suspect be replaced by Clemson. I think the win over Alabama should send LSU to #1 but given the competitiveness of the game I don't see any reason for Alabama to drop out of the top four. So I'm thinking the top six will look as follows:

#1 - LSU (9-0)
#2 - Ohio State (9-0)
#3 - Clemson (10-0)
#4 - Alabama  (8-1)
#5 - Georgia (8-1)
#6 - Oregon (8-1)

But I wouldn't be surprised if Ohio State stayed at #1, Alabama was #3 and Clemson #4. My choices are just my opinion. We'll see Tuesday what the CFB committee decides.

CFP Ranking Week #1

OK, so I was wrong. Ohio State did come in at #1 and Penn State was #4. Here's the first top ten.

#1 - Ohio State (8-0)
#2 - LSU (8-0)
#3 - Alabama (8-0)
#4 - Penn State (8-0)
#5 - Clemson (9-0)
#6 - Georgia (7-1)
#7 - Oregon (8-1)
#8 - Utah (8-1)
#9 - Oklahoma (7-1)
#10 - Florida (7-2)

Games for the top ten this weekend.

Maryland at Ohio State
LSU at Alabama
Penn State at Minnesota (17)
Clemson at NC State
Missouri at Georgia
Iowa State at Oklahoma
Oregon - Bye
Utah - Bye
Vanderbilt at Florida

The biggest game is LSU and Alabama but Penn State is facing Minnesota (8-0) who is ranked 17th.

Elizabeth Warren's Medicare for All Plan

I think Warren’s plan gives us something to mull over and it provides a baseline that I think was sorely needed.

That being said, there is one part of it that I’ve rejected before and I’m going to reject again and that’s the wealth tax.

It’s not that I have any issue with taxing the extremely wealthy it’s just that I’m not sure how practical this tax is going to be.

First of all calculating net worth as a basis to levy the tax upon strikes me as fraught with all sorts of potential problems when wealth is not held in liquid assets. Even if we could come up with a reasonable way of calculating wealth in that case do we really want to demand that people sell stocks, bonds, real estate or other non-liquid assets in order to pay a wealth tax?

Second is that its constitutionality is questionable especially with the current SCOTUS. Even if it SHOULD be considered constitutional I don’t feel confident that this SCOTUS will find it so.

I would much prefer adding two or three higher marginal tax brackets and adding a bracket or two to long term capital gains. This is simple and we know with absolute certainty that it’s constitutional.

The polls seem to indicate that a majority of people support Medicare for All But there is a difference between supporting something in principal and supporting a specific approach for implementation.

The big issue is that people tend to be suspicious of change. People who have access to reasonable health care are going to be concerned that any big change is going to screw things up. I suspect a lot of current Medicare subscribers are going to be concerned that opening up Medicare to everyone is going to negatively impact them in some way manner shape or form with the most likely being that it will be harder to get appointments or treatment.

And they may be right. But we won't really know until Medicare for All is implemented.

CFP Ranking Prediction

Well. it's that time again. The first official College Football Playoff (CFP) ranking will be released at 9 PM tonight. I'm thinking the top six will look as follows:

#1 - Alabama (8-0)
#2 - LSU (8-0)
#3 - Ohio State (8-0)
#4 - Clemson (9-0)
#5 - Penn State (8-0)
#6 - Georgia (7-1)

I've seen predictions that LSU will be #1 and that's possible but I think the CFP is going to go with Alabama. The two teams are playing Saturday so whoever wins that game will almost certainly be #1 in next week's poll regardless of where they end up today.

I saw at least one columnist saying that Ohio State will be #1 but I can't believe that it won't be an SEC team so either Alabama or LSU.

The same columnist felt that Penn State would be #4 rather than Clemson and I suspect that's more likely than Ohio State at #1. Clemson hasn't looked that good this year and I'm not overly impressed with their schedule.

Still, Clemson will probably finish 12-0, unless they stumble against Wake Forest in two weeks. I don't see them losing to NC State or South Carolina although I suppose you never know.

LSU and Alabama play each other this week and Ohio State and Penn State play each other November 23rd so at least two of Clemson's main rivals will have at least one loss. Georgia already has a loss as does Oregon, Utah and Oklahoma.

Anyway, let the games begin.

Netanyahu Strikes Out

Bibi has again failed to form a government on Israel opening the door for Benny Gantz to give it a try.

I think Gantz has a shot but people may be asking too much to join a coalition. And you thought our government was gridlocked?

To Impeach or Not to Impeach II

As I said before; there are two ways to look at this. One way is theoretical and the other is practical.

This Ukraine mess changes the equation. If the House didn't begin an impeachment investigation over this then they would be in dereliction of their responsibilities. So it's time to damn the torpedoes, do the right thing and let the chips fall where they may.

But investigating is one thing and voting articles of impeachment is another. I think they would need really hard evidence of wrong doing and that evidence would have to be understandable by the American public without complicated explanations from legal experts.

On the practical side, regardless of how much evidence they come up with, is there any realistic chance of getting the two thirds majority in the Senate for a conviction? I suspect things would have to get really bad for that to happen.

There are a number of ways this could go.

1. The investigation peters out and articles of impeachment are never introduced or they're introduced by one of the wide eyed progressives and they're not approved. I suspect this is the most likely scenario.

2. Articles of impeachment can be passed in the House but the Senate acquits. This is the second most likely outcome.

3. Trump strikes a deal and resigns in exchange for some sort of immunity from something. I don't think there is much chance of this happening. Trump is too much of a narcissist.

4. Pence and the "principal officers of the executive department" invoke section 4 of the 25th Amendment and remove Trump from office. I suspect this is only slightly more likely than Trump resigning.

5. Articles of impeachment are passed in the House and the Senate convicts. The proverbial snowball in hell would have a better chance.

The impeachment process will be an issue in the 2020 elections regardless of what happens. Who it will help and who it will hurt is not at  all clear.

Calling the Ukraine, come in Ukraine

Trump is a piece of work. I have said that while I don't necessarily disagree with all of his policies, I consider him a classless buffoon.

But he's canny. He reminds me of a street wise numbers runner who's just smart enough not to say anything anyone can pin on his sorry rear end.

If you look at the partial transcript of Trump's conversation with the Ukrainian president, he doesn't specifically tie military aid to them doing a political favor for him but it's certainly strongly implied.

Only an idiot, or a Republican, can't see what's going on.

Netanyahu gets the First Shot

Despite Blue and White gaining one more seat, Netanyahu's failure to form a government in April and a series of corruption charges pending, Netanyahu was given the nod by Israeli president Rivlin to try and form a coalition government.

Apparently a poll of all the Knesset members showed a plurality choosing Netanyahu and so off we go.

Avigdor Lieberman, head of the Yisrael Beitenu party, has said he will not form a government with the ultra-religious parties and I don't see how Bibi can form one without them unless (1) he comes to some sort of agreement for a unity coalition with Gantz or (2) Lieberman changes his mind.

Both Gantz and Lieberman have insisted they will not join a governement with Likud unless Netanyahu steps down.

The Daniel Jones Era Begins

Well, well, Danny Dimes looked pretty good against the Bucs. He threw for over 300 yards with 2 TDs and no picks. He also ran for 2 TDs including the eventual winner.

Basically the defense blew the game but the Tampa Bay kicker was worse and missed a 34 yard field goal with no time left. That left the Giants with a 32-31 win.

Hey, I'd rather be lucky than good.

On the downside Saquon Barkley suffered a high ankle sprain which will put him out for 4-8 weeks. Wayne Gallman says he's ready for the challenge.

Obviously Jones is going to have some ugly games in the future. It could be a different story against the Redskins Sunday but at least there looks to be some light at the end of the tunnel.

The offensive line still needs some shoring up and the defense has lots of issues starting with the defensive line and the safeties.

This is clearly a throw away year. All we can hope for is that some of the rookies develop.

Netanyahu on the Ropes

Exit polling in Israel is showing a very close race but the rival Blue and White holding a slight lead. Neither party will get a majority so a second round of coalition bargaining will begin.

It's not clear who Israeli president Reuven Rivlin will ask to form a government. He went with Netanyahu in April and that didn't work out.

It looks as if Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu party, a right of center secular party, might be in a position to play king maker but it's unclear where the other seats will come from.

Daniel Jones Time Has Come (perhaps)

Well, after two pretty awful performances all around the Giants are 0-2 and have probably concluded that they're not going anywhere this season with an awful defense and questionable receiving corp.

Therefore they have decided to hand the keys over to Daniel Jones.

I don't think they expect miracles but they're going to see if they have the future franchise quarterback or not.

Good luck Daniel.

As for Eli, I suppose it was too much to ask him to carry the team with so little support around him. I watched both games and he isn't the reason they lost.

They lost due to the lack of anything resembling defense, a fair number of dropped passes and the sort of bad breaks that always seem to plague bad football teams and, make no mistake about it, this is a bad football team.

Still, the future always comes eventually. I was there when Manning replaced Kurt Warner but I'll have to watch this one on television.

Israeli September Election

The disadvantage of a parliamentary system is you can end up with election fatigue.

Netanyahu failed to build a ruling coalition after April's election so they're going to try it again this month.

Netanyahu and Likud are pretty much playing the same hand as the last time around, name dropping Trump every two minutes and promising to annex parts of the West Bank.

This time around however he's identified the Jordan Valley, which runs along the border with Jordan, as the first annexation target and claims this has the support of the Trump administration.

Any US support for a unilateral annexation, which would be widely viewed in the global community as illegal, would be temporary if a Democrat unseats Trump in 2020.

In the meantime, an election rally with a scheduled speech by Netanyahu was delayed as Bibi was ushered off stage to avoid two rockets fired from Gaza. I think I would have stayed on stage and taken my chances considering how close this election appears to be.

Don't expect Blue and White, Netanyahu's main opponent in the election, to run to the negotiating tables either as they have clearly indicated that the security of the state of Israel will be their first concern.

Based on the polls Likud and Blue and White appear neck and neck in the September 17 election but it looks like Likud might have the upper hand in forming a majority coalition.

Israel's president, Reuven Rivlin, will decide which party leader has the best chance of putting together a majority coalition and that party will have a little over a month to form a government.

The Neil Gorsuch's Book

I see that Neil Gorsuch has written a book, "A Republic, If You Can Keep It," lamenting the loss of civility in public life, but never mentioning Trump's classless activities, while explaining why we should only interpret the Constitution to mean what the 17th century framers were thinking.

Those framers must have had a truly strange prophetic vision to think about semi-automatic rifles, that wouldn’t be invented for more than 100 years, but which they covered as part of the 2nd Amendment, while missing little things like (1) getting rid of fucking slavery, (2) women’s suffrage and their right to control their own bodies, (3) LGBTQ rights and (4) immigration policies that have some vague hint of sanity about them.

How any intelligent, educated person can read the Constitution and not recognize that it is a framework meant to live and breathe as the world changes baffles me. That's one of the reasons that we have thousands upon thousands of pages of constitutional case law.

Honestly Neil, we have a better chance of keeping that Republic without folks like you.

So, Here We Go.

Another NFL season is upon us. The Packers squeaked by the Bears last Thursday by 7-3. The rest of the league gets it in gear this Sunday or Monday.

The Giants are at the Cowboys and I have no idea what to expect. Is Dave Gettleman a genius or a fool? He's probably a little of both so I'm not expecting a big surprise either way.

Manning will be under center and I don't expect to see Daniel Jones unless there is a blowout one way or the other.

There are big questions on offense. Manning's arm strength is clearly questionable despite his work with a major league baseball pitching coach. The wide receiver corps is a bit of question mark as well especially with Golden Tate on suspension.

The bigger question mark to my mind is the defense. It was really the defense that lost games last year. Hopefully it will be a bit better but I don't expect any significant improvement.

So I suppose we shall see what we shall see.

Now excuse me while I find my crying towels for tomorrow.

Daniel Jones

To say that I was upset when the Giants chose Daniel Jones with the #6 overall pick would be a massive understatement. I was ready to keel haul Dave Gettleman and feed Pat Shurmur to a hungry shark.

Using the #6 pick for Jones while edge rusher Josh Allen was still on the board struck me as an exercise in insanity.

Now we have two pre-season games done and I also saw Jones at a charity softball event where he played 2nd base and hit a home run to boot.

Granted that Jones has played against 2nd and 3rd string defensive players and the pass rush against him has been fairly light, still, I'm going to admit that I may have been wrong.

He has looked pretty impressive. He's throw bullets with a ball placement accuracy that looks pretty darn good.

But the thing that has impressed me most is after a string of disasters against the Bears, including two fumbles and a dropped pass, he came back and put ten points on the board.

Of course pre-season is not the NFL and there is a long ways to go. Josh Allen would have made an immediate impact on an anemic Giants' pass rush and Jones is a future investment. I suppose we'll have to wait and see.

El Paso and Dayton

In a span of 14 hours two mass shootings, both of which involved semi-automatic rifles and extended capacity clips, have resulted in the deaths of 31 people.

I've never been to Dayton but I've been to El Paso many times. It's a nice place with friendly people. I can't imagine why anyone would do this kind of thing.

The El Paso shooter left a manifesto mumbling right wing bullshit about "invasions" and condemning things like inter-racial and inter-ethnic marriage. The guy was clearly a nut. He's in custody so now we get the horror of a trial.

Everyone wants a piece of this guy. Texas says it will seek the death penalty; the federal government is talking about treating it as terrorism and a hate crime which would also carry the death penalty and the Mexicans are demanding extradition because at least six of the victims were Mexican nationals.

There isn't as much information about the Dayton shooter other than he killed his own sister and sounds like he had serious issues. He's dead so we won't have to worry about a trial in Ohio.

This is ridiculous. Crazies like this need to be prevented from getting guns. If the only way to do that is to prevent anyone from getting a gun, then so be it.

Apparently the Equal Rights Amendment is Still Around

Advocates are claiming they are only one state away but that's probably not true.

Right now the problem with the ERA is that if another state ratified it would lead to a flurry of court cases. The legislatures of four states have rescinded ratification. One state had the legislature's proposal to rescind vetoed, which is itself legally questionable, but the other three were approved.

Plus, there are issues as to whether the time limit to ratify has expired. Congress extended the time limit from March of 1979 until June of 1982. A federal district court held that congress had no power to do that. The SCOTUS allowed the date of June 1982 to pass and then declared that the issue was moot.

It is highly unlikely that the current SCOTUS would ignore both the rescinded ratifications and the expiration of the time limit.

Besides, the 14th Amendment extends protections to women. If you need a special amendment for women then why not for race, national origin, ethnicity or being left handed.

It's time to put this dinosaur to bed permanently.

Representative Pramila Jayapal's Medicare for all Bill

There are two parts to any issue. The first part asks is it a good idea or a bad idea? Obviously having everyone with access to good health care is not only a good idea but absolutely imperative.

The second part asks since it’s a good idea, how do we make it happen? I think we have a ways to go on this one.

I read through Representative Jayapal's bill and the first thing that bothers me is why does it have to be a whole new bill rather than an amendment to the current Medicare legislation?

A second thing that bothers me is section 202.

SEC. 202. NO COST-SHARING. (a) IN GENERAL.—The Secretary shall ensure that no cost-sharing, including deductibles, coinsurance, copayments, or similar charges, is imposed on an individual for any benefits provided under this Act.

These things exist under current Medicare.

 

The deductible under Medicare Part A (hospitalization) is $1,364 and for Medicare Part B (doctor visits) it’s $185. There is a monthly premium based for Part B upon income that starts at $135.50 per month. There is also a co-pay for Part A when the hospital stay exceeds 60 days. Part B has a copay which is usually $10 but is $0 for preventative care visits such as annual physicals.

Then let’s not forget that Part D premiums are typically paid to a private insurer with Medicare charging a premium for high income retirees. A lot of people also have Medicare advantage plans which take up the slack. My wife gets that for free as part of her retirement package.

There are also may be premiums for Part A depending upon how long you paid payroll taxes into Medicare. Then of course everyone and their employer pay 1.45% of gross salary into Medicare.

In other words, current Medicare is not free. Government health care plans in places like Canada and France are not free. They’re paid for through VAT or sales taxes.

So, how do Jayapal and company intend to pay for this if they eliminate deductibles, copays and premiums? The bill doesn’t specifically say “premiums” but the consensus seems to be that she means no premiums.

The bill calls for coverage of ANYONE who is a resident of the US for free. Yes, Virginia, that might include illegal immigrants depending upon how "resident" is defined. She identifies no way to pay for this legislation. 

Clearly, I'm not going to support something without having the full story. Every single proposal that the Democrats are putting on the table looks like it's going to cost me money and not provide me any benefit.

That doesn't mean I won't vote for them but they're making it really hard.

What is Racism?

I no longer understand what constitutes “racism.” Is it what you say or why you say it? If it’s the former does that mean whenever I criticize a black person or black culture I’m being racist? That’s ridiculous.

It makes much more sense to me to say that “racism” is determined by WHY you say things. If I criticize someone BECAUSE they’re black then that’s racism.

I suppose that if I apply the negative behavior or stereotypes of individuals or small groups to everyone of a given race, that’s racism as well. You know, like black people say all whites are racist.

I don’t give a crap what color you are or where you come from but I reserve the right to criticize things I don’t like regardless of what color you are or where you come from.

Let’s talk about Baltimore for a second. Like many large urban areas it’s a tale of two cities. When I take the train from Newark down to Fort Meade or Washington it passes through areas of Baltimore that are seriously in need of work, The buildings look like they’re falling apart and there is trash all over the streets. This needs to be addressed. People should not have to live in such conditions.

Then you go to the Inner Harbor and the area is gorgeous. Everything looks clean and new. It’s difficult to believe that the two areas are part of the same town. Yet such contrasts are not that unusual in American cities.

So am I a racist because I think some areas of Baltimore look run down?

Now let's talk about "the Squad." I would gladly pay for a ticket to send Ilhan Omar anywhere she wants to go as long as it's outside the US. I hear Antarctica is nice this time of year. I might also be persuaded to buy a ticket for Tlaib.

I don't care for their opinions and I certainly would never vote for either of them.

I have my doubts about AOC but I'm not ready to give up on her just yet and I don't really know enough about Pressley to have an opinion.

So, does this make me a racist? If so, then so be it.

Charles Sykes on How to Guarantee Trump's Re-election

According to Sykes, in Polico Magazine, there are eleven ways the Democrats could blow the 2020 election.

1. Hold firmly to the idea that Twitter is the beating heart of the real Democratic Party. — That’s not going to happen in any event. Candidates and the party have pollsters working behind the scenes. But Trump could provide some nuggets on twitter.

2. Embrace the weird. — Of course Sykes labels “weird” anything he doesn’t agree with. I haven’t heard anything “weird” yet. I’ve heard some things I don’t agree with but nothing weird.

3. Keep promising lots of free stuff and don’t sweat paying for it. — I haven’t heard any of this either. Every candidate has clearly shown that they understand things need to be paid for. The issue has usually been is the proposed approach going to raise enough revenue.

4. Go ahead and abolish private health insurance. — He’s actually right about this one. There are far too many people content with their current plans. Medicare for All should provide a public option but shouldn’t require everyone to be a part of it.

5. Spend time talking about reparations. — He’s right about this one as well. First win the election and then look at reparations. I wouldn’t make it a big issue even during the primaries.

6. Trump thinks that immigration and the crisis at the border are winning issues for him. They aren’t. But you can turn that around. — I could shoot myself in the foot too but it’s not going to happen and neither is this.

7. Lots more focus on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. —  Yes AOC is extremely unpopular with some segments of the electorate. The focus should and will be on the candidates and not a freshman congress member anyway. I think it’s safe to say she’ll win her seat in 2020. I’m putting in a stock of popcorn in the hope we’ll have AOC and a Democratic president because that’s going to be entertaining as hell.

8. Socialism. — Socialism is a toxic term in this country. People hate Socialism but love Socialist programs. Focus on the programs and not the label.

9. Turn the abortion issue from a winner into a loser. — No Democrat with any reasonable chance of getting the nomination is this dumb.

10. You can also turn a winner into a loser on the issue of guns. — See answer to #9 above. Even someone as radical on guns as I am knows better than to push too hard on this one.

11. As you try to get Americans more alarmed about Trump’s attacks on democratic norms, make sure you talk as much as possible about your support for court-packing. — Is anyone with more than half a brain still talking about this? How about we consider impeaching Kavanaugh instead?

Abortion Support Hits Highest Level Since 1995

An ABC/Washington Post poll puts support for legal abortion in all or most cases at 60% and support for legal abortion in all cases at 27%.

If this were the sole issue for the 2020 election it would be no contest.

Most people, there are some exceptions, are complex animals. They’re loyalties and concerns are split between social issues and economic issues.

If the election only rested upon fundamental social issues such as abortion access and LGBTQ rights, it would be no contest.

But the economic issues have to be dealt with as well.

At the moment the economy is good, very good. There are some rumblings and the deficit and the debt are way out of control (please don’t respond to that with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) because my economics degree tells me that’s just the Laffer curve of the left) but unemployment is at 3.6%, the Dow is flirting with 27,000, the S&P 500 is flirting with 3,000 and the NASDAQ is over 8,000.

The rumblings, the deficit and the debt are just not on most people’s radar.

These are VERY good economic numbers. The economy is probably the battlefield upon which the 2020 election will be fought. Trump has already fired the first salvo by predicting a stock market crash if he loses the election.

On the Idea of Reparations

Find me an ex-slave and I’ll be happy to support his claims for reparations FROM THE STATE WHERE HE WAS ENSLAVED because everyone should be paid for their work.

If you want to argue that the descendants of slaves should receive reparations FROM THE STATES WHERE THEIR ANCESTORS WERE ENSLAVED, I might go along with that.

The southern states were the primary beneficiaries of slavery. The northern states benefited as well but no where near as much as the southern states. To be honest, I live in New Jersey and I am just sick and tired of supporting their sorry Republican rear ends. Let those states who benefited the most make the most restitution. 

Beyond that, count me out. My people were in Italy and Austria-Hungary when slavery was a thing so don’t expect me to support using my tax dollars on an equal basis with states like Alabama or Mississippi for reparations.

The Obesity Epidemic

Yes it's an epidemic and it's getting worse.

The CDC has a new report out from December 2018 which discusses average height and weight in the US by race and sex.
The heaviest group is white males averaging a whopping 202.2 pounds with an average height of 5' 9.8" for an average BMI of 29.2.
On the distaff side the heaviest group is black females averaging 186.1 pounds with an average height of 5' 4" for an average BMI of 31.9. That means the average black female is obese.
To put this in perspective I'm male, 6' 0" (apparently I've shrunk an inch in my old age) and weigh around 180 pounds so the average black female in this country outweighs me. Asians are doing something right with men averaging 5' 6.8" and weighing 161.1 pounds for a BMI of 25.4 and females averaging 5' 1.5" and weighing 132.4 pounds for a BMI of 24.6.

The 2005 Bankruptcy Law

Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are old adversaries. In 2005 Biden sponsored a bill to update bankruptcy law and Warren, an expert in bankruptcy law, wanted nothing to do with it.

The major criticisms revolved around the claim that the law made things better for the credit card companies at the expense of the consumer. Considering the credit card companies apparently spent around $100 million pushing the bill that sounds like it's pretty accurate.

Bankruptcy law is complicated especially when you combine it with credit card companies and their often barely ethical practices.

The 2005 Bankruptcy law was based upon the erroneous claim that fraud and abuse of the bankruptcy system were widespread. Like the claim that voter fraud is widespread no one ever found any evidence to support that claim. It turned out that unexpected medical expenses were the most likely cause of bankruptcy. There’s no real surprise there.

In the meantime, remember that Delaware is the credit card capital of the country because of two things.

1. Marquette National Bank v. First of Omaha Corp. in 1978 where the SCOTUS held that credit card companies could export interest rates from the states where they were located to other states.

2. Delaware’s 1980 Financial Center Development Act which, according to Forbes, provided the following incentives, with commentary in parentheses, to credit card companies.

• Invitations: It gave out-of-state banks permission to enter Delaware, provided that they met certain conditions — for example, employing at least 100 people in the state
• Interest rate flexibility: It largely eliminated usury ceilings (so 24% interest became OK)
• Option to charge fees: It allowed banks to impose several types of fees on revolving and closed-ended credit, if they were disclosed (disclosed usually on pg 178 in teeny print)
• Tax breaks: It implemented an inverted tax rate for banks making more than $20 million, taxing big banks at a lower rate than smaller banks (I’d like to meet the guy that came up with this one)

In 1980 there were hopes that the act would add 1,000 jobs. As of 2017 some 47,000 people are employed in Delaware’s financial sector.

So, I wonders why a senator from Delaware would be friendly to credit card companies. It’s hard to figure out but MAYBE if I try REAL hard I might be able to work it out.

Are you kidding me?

Dave Gettleman, with not one, not two, but FOUR outstanding defensive prospects, the consensus best offensive lineman in the draft AND Dwayne Haskins, QB from Ohio State, on the board chooses, with the #6 pick in the 2019 NFL draft...ta-da...wait for it...here it comes...

Daniel Jones, QB from Duke

This has the earmarks of being the worst draft pick ever made by the New York Giants. If they give him #17, the number he wore at Duke, he can replace Dave Brown who also wore that number and who, arguably, currently holds the honor of being the worst draft pick ever made by the Giants.

If John Mara and Steve Tisch haven't already fired Gettleman's sorry rear end, they should and let him take Head Clown Pat Shurmur with him because Shurmur didn't hog tie Gettleman to prevent this disaster.

What were they thinking?

If nothing else the level of competition that Jones has faced disqualifies him as a top 10 pick. At pick #17 I wouldn't have been so upset. I would have still been upset but at #6?

What a bonehead move.

I've been going to Giants games since 1958 and this is the most disappointing move I've seen the team make since they cut WR Buddy Dial and kept WR Joe Biscaha instead.

To Impeach or Not to Impeach

There are two ways to look at this.

One way is theoretical. Are there grounds for impeachment? Mueller and company apparently felt there was something there that only the congress could take action on.

But it's unclear exactly what is the crime, beyond self centered narcissism and incompetence, that we're dealing with here. The most you can say is he misused the power of his office in an attempt to obstruct justice.

To be honest I see a better case for impeaching Barr since he clearly lied his ass off in his "summary" of the Mueller Report.

The other way is practical. Is there any realistic chance of getting a conviction in the Senate?

I figure, given the current Senate, the chances of getting the two-thirds majority for conviction is zero without enough additional evidence of wrong doing to cause an upheaval of popular demand for removal from office.

I figure the chances of finding that additional evidence are about zero as well. So the only thing going down the road of impeachment would accomplish is making Trump look like a martyr.

I don't think it would be a good idea.

The Mueller Report

After reading the report I'm left with this feeling that what we have is a president saved from committing several felonies by his own incompetence.

Clearly there was cooperation (I'll avoid the other C word) between the Trump campaign and the Russians but the Trump organization was in such a state of chaos that the left hand didn't know what the left finger was doing.

That leaves us with the question of obstruction of justice. Trump, given his narcissistic personality, was clearly furious that he, the royal he, was being investigated and struck out on numerous occasions.

Luckily, for him, subordinates simply ignored him and, again, the administration was in such chaos that often they got away with it. I love the final sentence of Mueller's own summary.

"Accordingly, while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him."

Which, as far as I can tell means absolutely nothing. The inability to prove a negative does mean a whole hell of a lot.

More on "Some People did Something."

Trump and the Post certainly went off the rails over this and while Ilhan Omar's words may not be sinister, they're not all that admirable either.

Let's simply look at an extended quote which, despite claims to the contrary, is not woefully out of context. In fact it's in keeping with the entire gist of the speech.

"Here’s the truth: far too long we have lived with the discomfort of being a second-class citizen. And frankly I’m tired of it, and every single Muslim in this country should be tired of it. CAIR was founded after 9/11, because they recognized that some people did something and then all of us were starting to lose access to our civil liberties."

First of all she's speaking to CAIR, an organization of questionable antecedents that has been declared a terrorist organization by the United Arab Emirates and had an admitted association with the Holy Land Foundation (HLF) charged by the US government with funneling money to Hamas.

When the 1st trial of the HLF ended in a mistrial CAIR defended the organization claiming the charges were "built on fear not fact." All HLF defendants were convicted in the retrial and CAIR was identified as an "unindicted co-conspirator" which caused the FBI to stop working with CAIR.

Second, what civil liberties were Muslims losing? Perhaps they should compare the civil liberties they lost to those lost by the Japanese internees during WW II or blacks in the south that were kept from voting by the Jim Crow culture? More people disliking you, whether justified or not, is not a loss of civil liberties. Even Islamophobic assholes enjoy freedom of speech.

Third, let's cut the bullshit, "some people did something" is no way to refer to the events of 9/11. If we can just agree this was a bad choice of words them I'm all for calling out those distorting what she said. BUT WE CAN'T EVEN DO THAT APPARENTLY. Instead heels have to be dug into the ground and the indefensible must be defended.

Fourth, just as a minor nit, CAIR was founded in 1994 and not after 9/11. She couldn't even get the founding date of the organization she was speaking to right.

Then we can add the "allegiance to a foreign country" crack while criticizing AIPAC a while back into the mix.

But the thing that really stuck in my craw was her comparing her "some people did something" phrase to George W, Bush's "I can hear you! The rest of the world hears you! And the people -- and the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon" phrase spoken on 9/14/2001, right in front of the rubble of the twin towers, claiming because he used the word "people" it amounted to the same thing she said or at least it was equally respectful or disrespectful.

No, not really, not even close.

Trump and the Post were being unethical but they were scoring lots of political points by going overboard. Trump understands the game. You have to know when to fold a losing hand and I have this bad feeling that this lady is a losing hand and always will be a losing hand.

The Anticipated Netanyahu Coalition

The details of the Likud coalition appear to be taking shape as follows.

Likud - 36 Seats

The Ultra-Orthodox Shas (8) and UTJ (7) - 15 Seats

Small Right Wing Parties Kulanu (4), Yisrael Beiteinu (5), and the Union of Right Wing Parties (5) - 14 Seats

That's a total of 65 seats out of the 120 seat Knesset. The extreme right wing are most likely to press for annexation of West Bank settlements.

In any event the negotiations aren't going to be easy and might take a while.

Some People Did Something!?

The full quote by Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar in a speech to CAIR was

"CAIR was founded after 9/11 because they recognized that some people did something and that all of us were starting to lose access to our civil liberties."

The part of this that has everyone bent out of shape is the description of the terrorist act as "some people did something."

The New York Post went completely off the rails.

Omar has a knack for putting her foot in her mouth. This is the same lady who in criticizing AIPAC implied they were pushing for "Allegiance to foreign country" with is an accusation often made against Jews in anti-Semitic attacks.

Then she implied a GOP representative was being anti-Semitic when he criticized Democratic policies by reading Hitler's quote from Mein Kampf on the "big lie" and accusing them of engaging in that tactic.

While Mein Kampf is one of the most anti-Semitic documents ever produced, there's nothing particularly anti-Semitic about Hitler's tangent explaining the concept of the "big lie."

I can't decide if Omar is just that stupid or whether she's purposely pushing the outside of the envelope to see what she can get away with.

Israeli Election Results

Despite some optimism that Benjamin Netanyahu would be displaced his Likud Party managed 36 seats to Blue and White's 35.

Israel's president will ask Netanyahu to try and form a government for the fourth consecutive time and the fifth time overall.

As usual the Likud Party leader will have to negotiate with the religious and other right wing parties in order to manage the 61 plus votes required.

The issue is what will Netanyahu have to offer those parties in order to get them to sign on? One concern is some may ask him to follow through on his promise in the waning days of the election to begin annexing West Bank territory around Jerusalem that is occupied by Israeli settlements.

It wouldn't be the first time Bibi didn't follow on a campaign promise so I suppose we'll have to wait and see.

I think annexing parts of the West Bank unilaterally without some sort of agreement with the Palestinians is a big mistake and is just going to make things a lot more tense.

The Final Four - Virginia vs Auburn

I don't usually watch basketball and I'm certainly not anything close to an expert but I did play and I do have a basic feel for the rules of the game.

I was bored last night and found a live stream of the Virginia-Auburn game and I figured I'd give it a look.

My immediate reaction was I didn't remember the game being so rough. I mean these guys were banging into each other and engaging in general mayhem while the referees smiled in benign neglect. I like that approach. Let the players play but just keep things from getting out of hand.

Now let's talk about the final couple of seconds.

With about 3 seconds left Virginia had squandered a 10 point lead and was trailing Auburn 62-60. Virginia's Ty Jerome was dribbling up court when the ball hit his heel and he lost control. Jerome then picked up the ball and started dribbling again.

The thought immediately popped into my head "isn't that a double-dribble?" I ignored my thought because I figured the refs knew better than I did.

Then Auburn fouled Jerome well beyond the key because they had a foul to give but, with under 2 seconds left, that seemed like giving Virginia a chance to catch their breath.

Then came the in-bounds pass to Kyle Guy and the 3-point shot. When it bounced off the rim, like just about everyone else, I figured the game was over and Auburn had won 62-60.

Well, not quite, because during the shot Auburn's Samir Doughty bumped into Guy and a three shot foul was called. I didn't see it in real time but the ref was right there and the foul was clear in the replay.

So, with the entire season on the line, and 0.6 seconds left, Kyle Guy goes to the free throw line for three shots.

Now, you would think he might be a tad nervous. Hell, if it were me my knees would be knocking together and my hands shaking. Not this kid. With no hesitation he put the ball up and got nothing but net, Auburn 62, Virginia 61.

They gave him the ball back and, again, with no hesitation he put it up and, again, nothing but net. Auburn 62, Virginia 62.

At that point Auburn called its last time out to discuss its options if Guy made or missed the shot. I suppose they also wanted Guy to think about that final shot.

The resumed the gane and, what think about? Again, with no hesitation he put the ball up and got, you guessed it, nothing but net.

Final score, Virginia 63, Auburn 62. This was one for the ages.

The Israeli Elections

Israelis go to the polls on April 9.

According to the last poll Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party is expected to manage 26 seats in the 120 seat Knesset while Benny Gantz's Blue and White Party is expected to win 30 seats.

So no party, as usual, will be even close to a majority and the coalition negotiations will commence.

Israel's president, Reuven Rivlin, will decide which party leader has the best chance of putting together a majority coalition and that party will have a little over a month to form a government.

The same poll indicates that Netanyahu's right wing block would manage a razor thin majority of 63 seats. If that's the case, Rivlin will probably ask Netanyahu to form a government for the fifth time.

What makes this all so interesting is Netanyahu, apparently concerned by the recent polls, is promising to begin the process of annexing parts of the occupied West Bank.

It's hard to believe Israel would do that without first insuring support from the Trump administration.

Whether annexation talk is just political bull to insure right wing votes or something Netanyahu actually intends to follow though on is not clear.

I'm betting it's all hand waving for votes but you never know. Any such annexation would be clearly illegal according to international law but that hasn't stopped Israel from annexing East Jerusalem and parts of the Golan Heights.

The Green New Deal

My concern with the Green New Deal is it mushes together two things which not only don't necessarily go together but which may be incompatible.

I think attacking climate change is an absolute necessity. I think investing in green technology will have not only climate but economic benefits which MAY or MAY NOT alleviate the economic and social justice issues identified in the bill.

People who are currently flipping burgers aren't going to suddenly be designing state of the art green technology. There's nothing about green technology manufacturing that would reverse the trend of automated rather than labor intensive factories; those same people flipping burgers are unlikely to either design the robots or maintain them.

I suspect a green technology revolution would, like all other economic revolutions, benefit some people, hurt other people and make the richest even richer. There's nothing wrong with this as long as the main goal of getting climate change under control is met.

White supremacists committed the largest # of extremist killings in 2017?

A tweet from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez noted that:

White supremacists committed the largest # of extremist killings in 2017.

According to Statista in 2017 there were 8,584 terrorist attacks worldwide resulting in 18,753 deaths and 19,461 injuries. Many were in the Middle east with 1,951 in Iraq, 1,171 in Afghanistan. There were also 860 in India and 574 in Pakistan. I doubt any of these were perpetrated by white supremacists so I’m going to assume Ms. Ocasio-Cortez is referring to the US only.

Her source is probably articles based upon the ADL’s Annual Report on Extremism such as an article in Quartz whose headline read:

The far-right was responsible for the majority of America’s extremist killings in 2017

According to the report, this is true. The ADL report listed 19 incidents. One possible problem with this report is that it includes criminal incidents perpetrated by people with extremist leanings even if the actions had nothing to do with their extremist politics. But let’s not quibble.

Lafayette, Indiana, January 16, 2017 — Self proclaimed white supremacist murdered a man during a home invasion. 1-0

San Antonio, Texas, January 29, 2017 — A member of the Aryan Brotherhood shoots to death a man over a dispute. 2-0

Denver, Colorado, February 1, 2017 — Convert to Islam who had pledged his allegiance to ISIS kills a security guard. 2-1

Leadwood, Missouri, February 9, 2017 — KKK leader murdered by his wife and son. 3-1

North Judson, Indiana, March 3, 2017 — Aryan Circle member shot and killed man who was dating his ex-girlfriend. 4-1

New York City, New York, March 30, 2017 — White supremacist who wanted to stop white women from engaging in interracial relationships stabs and kills homeless man. 5-1

Fresno, California, April 18, 2017 — Black Nationalist kills a security guard and then kills three more people over several days. 5-5

Dallas, Texas, May 1, 2017 — Black Nationalist kills his godfather. 5-6
Broadwater County, Montana, May 16, 2017 — Anti-government extremists kill a sheriff. 6-6
Tampa, Florida, May 19, 2017 — White supremacist kills two of his roommates for making fun of his conversion to Islam (!?). 8-6
Portland, Oregon, May 26, 2017 — White supremacist stabs to death two men who tried to help an African-American girl and a girl wearing a hijab being harassed by the guy. 10-6
Putnam County Georgia, June 13, 2017 — Member of a white supremacist prison gang and another inmate killed two guards while trying to escape. 12-6
Century Correctional Institution, Florida, June 19, 2017 — White supremacist inmate stabs African-American inmate to death. 13-6
Samish Island, Washington, July 14, 2017 — Alt right theorist murders his father in argument over his beliefs. 14-6
Charlottesville, Virginia, August 12, 2017 — White supremacist drives car into crown killing 1 and injuring 19. 15-6
Greeley, Colorado, August 16, 2017 — White supremacist gang member, along with his wife and sister, murdered his uncle. 16-6
New York City, October 31, 2017 — Islamic extremist drives a rental truck down a bike path killing 8. 16-14
Aztec, New Mexico, December 14, 2017 — White supremacist disguises himself and kills two students. 18-14.
Reston, Virginia, December 22, 2017 — An accused white supremacist teenager kills his girlfriend’s parents because they wanted to her to stop seeing him because of his beliefs. 20-14.

So, we have 19 incidents resulting in 34 deaths and white supremacists were responsible for 20 of them. I’m sure these weren’t the only homicides involving extremists because there were 17,284 homicides in the US in 2017. There were 650 homicides in Chicago alone. There were also 135,755 rapes.

But these were the 19 incidents the ADL chose to highlight for whatever reason. The 2018 report was worse with 50 deaths documented. It also updated the 2017 total to 37 but didn’t identify the additional 3 victims.

You'll excuse me if I'm not about to panic over 34 extremist related homicides out of 17,284.

Who Kills Who?

Despite all the gnashing of teeth over police killing young black men and the whole Black Lives Matter thing, blacks apparently kill more blacks every year than whites and police combined.

According to the FBI crime statistics in 2016 blacks killed 2,570 other blacks. Whites killed 243 blacks. It works the other way as well. In 2016 Whites killed 2,854 whites while blacks killed 533 whites.

So it’s far more likely for someone to be killed by someone of the same race than by someone of a different race or by the police.

According to the Washington Post police killed a total of 963 persons in 2016.

So even if all 963 people killed by police were black, and they weren’t, the total number of blacks killed by police and whites combined is less than half the total number killed by other blacks.

Of course crime is not related to race but to economic deprivation and desperation. It’s made worse by easy access to firearms which makes it necessary for police to be armed.

If every two bit hood wasn’t armed to the teeth police might be a lot less trigger happy.

Some Input from Jerusalem

As the Israeli elections come closer, some notes from the Jerusalem Post.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended Israel’s regular allowing of Qatari funds to be transferred into Gaza, saying it is part of a broader strategy to keep Hamas and the Palestinian Authority separate, a source in Monday’s Likud faction meeting said.

Netanyahu explained that, in the past, the PA transferred the millions of dollars to Hamas in Gaza. He argued that it was better for Israel to serve as the pipeline to ensure the funds don’t go to terrorism.

“Now that we are supervising, we know it’s going to humanitarian causes,” the source said, paraphrasing Netanyahu.

The money comes from the Qatar Fund for Development established in 2002 to help the economic development of Arab countries and developing countries. Netanyahu’s response was to opposition by the Blue and White Party who wanted to block the funds altogether calling them mafia style protection payments.

The prime minister also said that, “whoever is against a Palestinian state should be for” transferring the funds to Gaza, because maintaining a separation between the PA in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza helps prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.

The implication being that Blue and White is strongly opposed to the establishment of a Palestinian State at least in the foreseeable future.

The bottom line is that the Israelis don’t trust the Palestinians including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Palestinian Authority. It’s hard to have a partnership when there’s no trust.

The Blue and White Party is an alliance looking to topple the Likud party as the party with the most seats in the upcoming elections but have slid lightly in the most recent polls. The last poll showed Blue and White with 33 seats and Likud with 29 out of a total of 120 Knesset seats.

Even if they manage to gain the most seats the government will still be created based upon which party leader the President of Israel (Reuvin Rivlin) believes has the best chance of putting together a majority coalition. So Blue and White could win the most seats but Netanyahu could still form the government.

Blue and White appear to have a strategy aimed at solidifying Israeli occupation in the West bank settlements, Jerusalem, the Golan Heights and the Jordan Valley. Three of its four senior leaders are former IDF chiefs of staff so I’m not expecting a lot of peace making efforts.

Let’s put it this way, neither “Two-State Solution” nor “Palestinian State” appears in the party’s charter. Here’s a direct quote from the charter.

"We will initiate a regional conference with the Arab countries that seek stability, and deepen the process of separation from the Palestinians while maintaining the uncompromising security interests of the State of Israel and the IDF's freedom of action everywhere.”

This is a very divide and conquer military like approach. I’m also reading a soldier’s mentality regarding Hamas in Gaza.

"Hamas, whose capabilities are minuscule in relation to the IDF, is provocative and is embittering the lives of the residents of the south.”

One last quote form the Blue and White Charter.

"We will heal the wounds created by the current government in relations with world Jewry, especially in the United States."

One more time, Israel doesn’t trust the Palestinians and they feel they’re justified in not trusting them. This is the fundamental problem. To be honest I don’t blame them; I wouldn’t trust them either.

The Emergence of the State of Israel

Given all the flap over anti-Semitic tropes being thrown around by Muslim members of the Hpuse of Representatives and the general ignorance being expressed by lots of folks, I think a bit of history is in order.

The establishment of the state of Israel began with the establishment of the Mandate for Palestine in 1923 by the League of Nations. That document ratified the Balfour Declaration of 1917 but also established safeguards for the non-Jewish population.

Britain was placed in charge of the mandate and allowed to establish the boundaries of Trans-Jordan, today the state of Jordan, and Palestine.

Between 1923 and 1947 there was a bloody three way pissing contest in Palestine between Jews, Arabs and the British. Finally Britain gave up and dumped the whole mess in the lap of the United Nations which had recognized existing international documents including the Mandate for Palestine.

The UN established a special committee to recommend actions related to Palestine. The committee came back with the following:

(1) approved the termination of the British mandate,

(2) a majority proposal for the partition of Palestine into a Jewish state and an Arab state with international control over Jerusalem and an economic union,

(3) a minority proposal for a federal union with Jerusalem as the capital.

The Zionist factions accepted the majority proposal. The Arab factions rejected both proposals.

The Jews were allocated more land than the Arabs (53% to 46%) despite Arabs being in the majority (1,270,000 to 610,000) because large scale Jewish emigration from Europe was anticipated.

On November 29, 1947, the UN adopted Resolution 181 which partitioned Palestine based upon the majority proposal.

The shooting started the next day with the ambush of two buses carrying Jewish settlers.

Jewish settlements were attacked by Arab forces including troops from Jordan, Syria and Egypt. Arab villages were attacked by Jewish forces. The Jewish committee told Jewish settlers to hold their ground while many Arabs either evacuated or were forced out by Jewish forces.

Both sides ignored the boundaries of the partition plan and probably committed atrocities. When the smoke had cleared Israel controlled all of Palestine except for the West Bank, which was controlled by Jordan, and the Gaza Strip which was controlled by Egypt. About 750,000 Palestinian Arabs out of an original 1948 population of 1.2 million had become refugees.

Israel took the West Bank from Jordan and Gaza from Egypt in the 1967 war. Israel withdrew from Gaza and dismantled Jewish settlements there in 2005.