Showing posts with label National Events. Show all posts
Showing posts with label National Events. Show all posts

Saturday, October 24, 2026

Election Time on the Midterms

 I found a video from a channel called Election Time that has a very different take of the Senate races. It predicts that the GOP will win 56 seats. It breaks down the competitive seats as follows:

Election Time GOP-56, Dems -44

GOP Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, IA, GA, TX

Dem Wins

NC

This is significantly different from other sites.

RCP No Tossups Dems - 52, GOP - 48

GOP Wins

IA

Dem Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, GA, TX, NC

Polymarket Dems - 52, GOP - 48

GOP Wins

IA

Dem Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, GA, TX, NC

Nate Silver Dems - 53, GOP - 47

GOP Wins


Dem Wins

AK, ME, NH, OH. MI, MN, IA, GA, TX, NC

The Nate Silver list aren't really predictions but rather who is ahead in his polling average. 

My Personal Picks GOP - 53, Dems - 47

GOP Wins

AK, ME, IA, OH, MI, TX

Dem Wins

NH, MN, GA, NC

Thursday, October 22, 2026

Fake Polling Data

Wedgewood Polls has admitted to releasing fake poll results including one that may have driven state Sen. Mallory McMorrow out of the Michigan Democratic Primary for Senator.

Wedgewood made the admission after election analysis website FiftyPlusOne said Tuesday that it had launched an investigation into how Wedgewood had conducted their survey research.

Wedgewood now says the poll’s data was fake and was an “experiment” designed to be a “wake-up call” to voters about the vulnerabilities of modern polling.

Well isn't that just special?

Apparently Wedgewood's "poll results" have been referred to on mainstream media and have been included in polling averages including those published by Nate Silver. Silver has updated his numbers resulting in a slight improvement in Republican chances.

Then they want to know why we don't trust polls. I can't wait for Mike Johnson to run with this one.

Tuesday, October 20, 2026

The Midterm Stretch III

 We're going to see if anything has changed from a week ago and I've added a Dem hold line for races that are currently in the Dem column but lookclose.

Still going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket. Bold = Change, Bold + Italics = Gain.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 187 (-2), Tossups - 22 (+2)

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 46, Tossups - 8

Dem Pickups - NC

Dem Hold -  NH, GA

Tossups - ME, OH, MI, TX, AK, IA, MN, KS

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME, IA

Dem Hold - NH, MI, GA

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Dem Holds - NH, GA, MI

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.5% (+0.4), Paxton (R) - 46.3% (+1.0)

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 48.8% (-0.2), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.2)

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 64% (+1), Paxton (R) - 37% (-1)

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1% (-0.3), Rogers (R) - 45.5% (-0.2)

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.7% (+0.6), Rogers (R) - 45.1% (-0.6)

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 68% (+5), Rogers (R) - 32% (-1)

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 53.3%, Blakeman (R) - 40.5%

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 53.5% (+0.7), Blakeman (R) - 39.5% (-1.0)

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 95% (-1), Blakeman (R) - 5% (+1)


Saturday, October 17, 2026

Allan Lichtman on the Senate

The historian and political analyst Allan Lichtman on the 2026 race for the Senate and I figured that I would capture that for future reference. Here is what he is saying about the competitive races.

Seats that he predicts that Democrats will hold.

New Hampshire - Democrat Chris Pappas

Michigan - Democrat Abdul El-Sayed

Seats that he predicts Democrats will flip.

Maine - Democrat Troy Jackson

North Carolina - Democrat Roy Cooper

Ohio - Democrat Sherrod Brown

Texas - Democrat Janes Talarico

Alaska - Democrat Mary Peltola

So that would make it 52-48 in favor of the Democrats.

I have the same fundamental problem here. Lichtman is placing a lot of importance on the horrible poll numbers for Trump. But being mad at Trump, and not voting Republican are two different things. I don't think the Democrats are going to take Maine or Texas and they may not take Alaska. I don't think they're going to hold Michigan either.

That would make it 51-49 or 52-49 for the GOP depending on Alaska.

Friday, October 16, 2026

Trump's Take on the Polls.

In an interview with Newsmax Trump made his view clear that "They're rigged. They're rigged polls."

He went on to explain that polling can suppress turnout by showing a candidate either so far behind that supporters believe voting is pointless or so far ahead that they believe victory is assured.

He's certainly right about that. I've made the point on a number of occasions in the past and all over the internet people are warning Dem supporters not to get complacent.

"So they're doing it to discourage people from voting. They're doing it deliberately," Trump said.

The problem is there are an awful lot of polls and they're pretty much showing the same thing. Still, the ghost of 2016 still haunts the political arena and there are some polls that disagree.

I stand by my three concerns.

(1) I don't think historical trends matter in this new political environment.

(2) Disliking Trump and not voting Republican are two different things.

(3) The Democrats strike me as brain dead. They're campaigning on two basic points. The first is "Trump Big Bad" and the second is "We're going to give people free stuff." I just don't think that's enough.

Obviously, this could just be my distrust of polls and my natural pessimism talking. I'm especially leery about the Senate races. I suspect that the Dems will take the House, but the Senate, I'm not so sure.

I suppose we shall see.

An Ice Raid on Ilhan Oman

 ICE raided the home of Ilhan Omar. Federal agents reportedly searched her home in a criminal investigation related to claims that she or her father may have lied on immigration paperwork when they sought to secure legal status in the U.S. decades earlier.

Who is making these claims is not clear. One item coming out of this is that Omar updated her date of birth in Congressional records from 10/4/1981 to 10/4/1982.

What makes this tricky is that American citizenship is based upon her being under 18 when her father got citizenship. As a minor she would be included. But if she was 18 or older, then she have to file on her own.

Omar's father obtained citizenship in 2000. A little basic arithmetic would tell you that, if she was born in 1981, then there is no way that she could have been under 18 at then time. Changing the date to 1982 resolves the problem.

I'm not sure how one resolves this without some sort of independent documentation because everything we have appears to be self reported. 

I suppose it's a matter of consistency. If every other reported date, driver's license, Social Security and school records, indicates 1982, then the 1981 date was simply an error despite the curious coincidence of it making her citizenship valid or not. If all the other dates are 1981, then that could be an issue.

I think it's most likely that the one date of 1981 was in error. Why bother to lie on the application for citizenship? Besides, they must have realized that there were other self reported dates that could be checked.

I suspect this particular issue is going nowhere. As for any other claims about falsifying immigration papers, I have no idea what they are so I suppose we shall see.

Tuesday, October 13, 2026

CNN on the Midterms

CNN has this really annoying "data analyst" by the name of Harry Enten that has been giving his take on the midterms. I don't like his broadcast manner. He sounds like a bit of a jerk to me.

However, that doesn't mean that he doesn't know what he's doing so I thought that I would capture his current thoughts.

He has presented it in terms of the probability of the possible outcomes.

Possibility #4 - <1% Probability

GOP House and Dem Senate

Possibility #3 - 11% Probability

GOP House and GOP Senate

Possibility #2 - 22% Probability

Dem House and GOP Senate

Possibility #1 - 67% Probability

Dem House and Dem Senate

OK, let's not forget that Hillary Clinton had an 80% chance in 2016. 

I have three problems with Enten's predictions. 

The first is that he seems to rely somewhat on historical trends. I don't think historical trends matter in this new political environment. Things have never been as polarized as they are now.

The second is that he's assuming because Trump is so currently unpopular that will lead to people abandoning the GOP or at least not showing up to support it. I don't know about that. Disliking Trump and not voting Republican are two different things.

The third is that the Democrats strike me as brain dead. They're campaigning on two basic points. The first is "Trump Big Bad" and the second is "We're going to give people free stuff." We'll see how well that works out.

Monday, October 12, 2026

The Midterm Stretch II

We're going to see if anything has changed from a week ago.

Still going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket. Bold = Change, Bold + Italics = Gain.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 189 (+4), Tossups - 20 (-4)

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 46 (+1), Tossups - 8 (-1)

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, IA, ME

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.1% (-0.1), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.1)

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 48.8% (-0.2), Paxton (R) - 45.3% (-0.2)

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 63% (-2), Paxton (R) - 38% (+1)

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.4% (+0.6), Rogers (R) - 45.7% (+1.5)

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1% (+0.3), Rogers (R) - 45.7% (+1.3)

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 63% (-4), Rogers (R) - 33% (+5)

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 53.3% (+1.6), Blakeman (R) - 40.5% (+0.2)

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 52.8% (+0.1), Blakeman (R) - 40.4% (+0.5)

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 96%, Blakeman (R) - 4% 

Looks like a few more people making decisions and some GOP gains. More on this next week.

Monday, October 05, 2026

The Midterm Stretch

Well, here we go, less than a month to the midterms.

The polls say the Dems are going to have a big night but I'm not so sure. Hating Trump and not voting Republican are two different things.

I'm going to go primarily with Real Clear Politics (RCP) but also some from Nate Silver (NS) and Polymarket.

The House of Representatives

RCP has it Dems - 226, GOP - 185, Tossups - 24

Polymarket has it Dems - 234, GOP - 201

The Senate

RCP

Dems - 46, GOP - 45, Tossups - 9

RCP - No Tossups

Dems - 53, GOP - 47

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, IA, ME

Polymarket

Dems - 52, GOP - 48

Dem Pickups - NC, OH, TX, AK, ME

Now for couple of races that I have a special interest in.

Texas Senate Race

RCP

Talarico (D)  - 48.2%, Paxton (R) - 45.4%

Nate Silver

Talarico (D)  - 49.0%, Paxton (R) - 45.5%

Polymarket

Talarico (D)  - 65%, Paxton (R) - 37%

Michigan Senate Race

RCP

El-Sayed (D)  - 47.8%, Rogers (R) - 44.2%

Nate Silver

El-Sayed (D)  - 48.1%, Rogers (R) - 44.4%

Polymarket

El-Sayed (D)  - 73%, Rogers (R) - 28%

New York Governor Race

RCP

Hochul (D)  - 51.7%, Blakeman (R) - 40.3%

Nate Silver

Hochul (D)  - 52.7%, Blakeman (R) - 39.9%

Polymarket

Hochul (D)  - 96%, Blakeman (R) - 4%

Sunday, September 20, 2026

Pete Buttigieg's Interview

 I was watching an interview with Pete Buttigieg about what the Democrats should do if they gain back the House.

I generally agreed with his idea of a series of small revenue bills addressing popular things. Such as raising taxes on the wealthy, restoring the Child Tax Credit, restoring the AMA subsidies. He warned against simply going back to the way things were.

I don't know how to tell you this Bill, but bringing back the Child Tax Credit, restoring the ACA subsidies and raising the minimum wage all have the possibility of increasing inflation and inflation is the one biggest thing that hurts people like us, retired couples, the most. 

So why should I vote for Democrats if I'm going to get hurt? I didn't hear anything about eliminating taxes on Social Security or insuring the program will continue to be viable. What about addressing drug prices and adding dental to Medicare? 

There are 73 million Americans on Social Security and you're ignoring them. Then you wonder why senior citizens don't vote for you. 46 million used the CTC and about 22 million got AMA subsidies. Even if there weren't significant overlap between those two groups, and there almost certainly is, that's 73 million to 68 million. Then you wonder why you lose elections. 

Friday, September 18, 2026

The Lone Juror

The lone holdout juror in the Lindsay Clancy has become something of a celebrity especially as he turned out to be a black man in his thirties that describes himself as a Black Conservative Republican.

As I said before, half the country wants to tar and feather him and the other half wants to hold him a ticker tape parade.

I wasn't in the courtroom, so I really have little basic for coming to a conclusion, but I think this guy should be applauded for sticking to his decision holding out against the mob.

In other Clancy trial news, her husband, Patrick, has apparently retained council and may be going after the people on social media that have been saying that he murdered the three children.

Good for him. These clowns need to understand that you can't just defame people online without consequences.

Given all the publicity, finding an unbiased jury for a second trial is going to be tricky.

Tuesday, September 08, 2026

Race for the Senate 2026

Polls are often skewed by 2-3 points. People will express frustration with the party in power even if they usually vote for it. Doing so in a poll is harmless, but doing so in the voting booth is not so harmless, and they tend to revert to the party they support even if they are upset with it. 

I think the polls are skewed 2-3 in the Dems favor especially in typically red states. So, assuming that's correct, I expect Iowa, Texas, Ohio and Alaska to be won by Republicans. That will give the GOP 51 seats and put New Hampshire, Michigan and Maine in play, but I suspect the Dems will still win those three races. Moody (R) will win in Florida. Ossoff will win in Georgia and Cooper will win in North Carolina. 

These calls may change in the eight weeks still remaining, but it's where I think things will go right now.

Saturday, September 05, 2026

The Lindsay Clancy Trial

So when from an inclusion in a current events summary to a mainline topic. I will repeat what I said previously just to set the stage.

A woman in Massachusetts, by the name of Lindsay Clancy, is on trial for murdering her three children. There is no question about whether she did it. She admits that she did it and hers lawyers admit that she did it. This hasn't kept feminists on the Internet from claiming her husband did it even though there is video evidence that he was at CVS at the time. The issue being debated is whether she was mentally ill and had been misdiagnosed which led to her being given medicine that made her condition worse rather than better. 

The trial is over, and has ended in a mistrial, but it's interesting how it got there.

It started with a note from the jury saying that they were deadlocked. As per standard procedure, the judge simply sent them back to continue deliberating. There was no indication as to what the split might be.

The jury then sent a second note saying that they were still deadlocked. Superior Court Judge William Sullivan delivered the Tuey-Rodriguez charge, a supplemental instruction urging the jury to make a final effort to reach a unanimous decision. There was still no indication of the split.

Then the jury sent a third note which showed considerable frustration. The note claimed that one lone juror was "refusing to follow the law." They had expressed doubt but refused to vote for acquittal.

Well, that brought us into a whole new situation. It was now clear that the vote was 11-1 for acquittal and the 11 were claiming that the 1 was not following the judge's instructions.

Judge Sullivan read the whole jury a definition of "Reasonable Doubt" and polled each jury as to whether they were prepared to follow the law and his instructions on the law. Each said that they were, so they were sent back for a third time.

Clancy's lawyer, Kevin Reddington, was going a little nuts. His client was one vote from acquittal. He got up and "suggested" that the judge remove the one juror and replace him with an alternate. The judge, correctly in my opinion, refused to do so. Somewhere along the line Reddington used male pronouns to refer to the juror, so everyone concluded that it was a man, even though the jury had six women and only three men. 

The Lone Juror, held out and the judge was forced to declare a mistrial. Reddington threw everything that he could come up with to prevent that, but to no avail.

The court, prosecution and defense have scheduled a meeting for the end of September to discuss scheduling a retrial so it looks like we're going to do this again.

The Internet went a little crazy over this. There was everything from calls for the Lone Juror to be tar and feathered to declaring them a national hero. I'm still not 100% certain it's a man by the way. Given the vitriol going around, they might want to lay low for a while.

Sunday, August 30, 2026

It's Been a While

I'd like to talk about what's going on, and I would, if I understood what's going on.

Seriously, everything seems upside down and side ways.

The whole war in Iran seems to be in a state of limbo. There's not a lot of shooting, but still a lot of economic strangulation, although it's hard to tell who's strangling who?

Trump is arguing with Canada again and wants to rename Lake Ontario to Lake America. He really is a fucking moron.

The US debt has topped $40 trillion. That's about $117,000 per person in the US.

The Stock Market is having conniptions. A daily graph of any day recently looks like a roller coaster ride with massive dips for no apparent reason. So-called "experts" are still arguing about whether there is an AI bubble and how big it is. There's definitely a bubble and I'm afraid it might be bigger than anyone wants to admit.

A woman in Massachusetts, by the name of Lindsay Clancy, is on trial for murdering her three children. There is no question about whether she did it. She admits that she did it and hers lawyers admit that she did it. This hasn't kept feminists on the Internet from claiming her husband did it even though there is video evidence that he was at CVS at the time. The issue being debated is whether she was mentally ill and had been misdiagnosed which led to her being given medicine that made her condition worse rather than better.

The NFL season is getting ready to start.

That's all that I can think of at the moment.

Friday, August 14, 2026

Transgenderism

I honestly don't know if transgenderism is a real thing or a mental illness. The majority of biologists, doctors and psychologists appear to consider it a real thing. I'm none of those things, so all I can do is shrug.

However, here's what I do know.

Physical = Relating to things you can see, touch, or experience in the real material world. 

Psychological = Anything that relates to the mind, mental processes, or emotional states.

Sex = Biological traits. Being male or female based on reproductive organs and genes.

Gender = The socially constructed roles, behaviors, expressions, and identities, that cultures consider appropriate for a given sex, at a given point in time.

Sex is an immutable physical characteristic. It can't be changed other than cosmetically. That's a conclusion that I have reached. There are people that disagree with that conclusion.

Gender is a psychological characteristic. It exists on a continuum with man at one end, female on the other end, and varying degrees of gender nonconformity in between.

We have all met people that exhibit gender non-conformities. Usually they're one or two things, so I can sort of understand that, in some cases, there could be a whole bunch of them. But I'm not sure what that means.

What bothers me is that far too many people don't even understand that sex and gender are two different things. How can there be a conversation if people don't agree on the basic definition?

Monday, August 10, 2026

The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)

Make no mistake. The objective of the DSA is Socialism in the US. All you have to do is look at their web site. Before they change it, and they will, I captured the text.

"Capitalism is a system designed by the owning class to exploit the rest of us for their own profit. We must replace it with democratic socialism, a system where ordinary people have a real voice in our workplaces, neighborhoods, and society.

We believe there are many avenues that feed into the democratic road to socialism. Our vision pushes further than historic social democracy and leaves behind authoritarian visions of socialism in the dustbin of history.

We want a democracy that creates space for us all to flourish not just survive and answers the fundamental questions of our lives with the input of all. We want to collectively own the key economic drivers that dominate our lives, such as energy production and transportation. We want the multiracial working class united in solidarity instead of divided by fear. We want to win “radical” reforms like single-payer Medicare for All, defunding the police/refunding communities, the Green New Deal, and more as a transition to a freer, more just life. 

We want a democracy powered by everyday people. The capitalist class tells us we are powerless, but together we can take back control."

I take no position on this at the moment. But I think it's important that people understand what we're talking about here.

Friday, August 07, 2026

Thoughts on Abdul El-Sayed

Abdul El-Sayed won the Michigan Democratic Primary for Senator last Tuesday.

He is a far left so-called Progressive, and certainly has some impressive academic credentials.

He attended the University of Michigan, where he majored in biology and political science. He graduated Phi Beta Kappa with Highest Distinction in 2007 with a bachelor's degree and delivered that year's commencement speech. El-Sayed received a full-tuition scholarship to the University of Michigan Medical School, where he completed two years of medical school, and considered becoming a neurosurgeon. There he led a student medical mission to Peru and founded a student organization that raised money and coordinated community service for a local free clinic.

He then received a Rhodes Scholarship to attend Oriel College, Oxford, where he completed a D.Phil. in public health in 2011. In 2014, he completed a Doctor of Medicine (M.D.) degree at the Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons. El-Sayed did not pursue a medical license, and instead went into public health epidemiology work.

I wonder why he decided against getting a medical license?

In 2014, El-Sayed joined the faculty at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health as an assistant professor in the epidemiology department. In August 2015, Mayor Mike Duggan appointed El-Sayed Health Officer and Executive Director of the Detroit Health Department.

El-Sayed is the author of over 100 scholarly articles, abstracts, and book chapters on public health policy, social epidemiology, and health disparities.

Like I said, impressive academic credentials. Then again, Osama Bin Laden had academic credentials as well including a stint at Oxford.

I don't like Muslims. I don't trust Muslims. Fighting them for so many years might have something to do with that so my immediate reaction to this guy is, no thanks.

There used to be these two buildings in Manhattan. Islam is both a political movement and a religion. The two can't be separated. El-Sayed supports the same people that the Muslims that flew planes into those buildings supported. We buried people after 911. We were supposed to "Never Forget." Looks like too many people in Michigan forgot.

Basically he won by promising people lots of free stuff.

He's going to pay for the free stuff by taxing billionaires. There are two reasons why this strategy never works.

First, really rich people are really, really good at keeping their money. They can afford to hire the best tax and financial advisors on the planet. Getting at their money is a lot harder than it sounds.

Second, there aren't enough billionaires around to pay for the things he's promising. The income tax started out at 1% on $0 to $20,000 ($640,000 today) after a $3,000 exemption for single taxpayers and a $4,000 exemption for married couples. The exemptions were enough to exclude 98% of workers.

Now look at the income tax today.

The same thing is going to happen with proposed wealth taxes. They won't be able to accumulate enough revenue from taxing only billionaires and the tax will move down first to the Upper Class, then to the Upper Middle Class and finally to the Middle Class.

They'll be coming after your saving accounts, your 401k accounts and the equity in your home before you know it. The crazy logic these so-called Progressives have is, if you earned the money, then you don't deserve it, but if you didn't earn it, then you deserve it. Besides, the only people who would vote for them are the ones getting the free stuff that someone else is paying for. 

The Fallacy of Democracy begins when 51% of the electorate figures out that they can vote goodies for themselves that the other 49% will pay for.

He also wants an arms embargo on Israel, because of course he does, he's a Muslim, and he wants to abolish ICE. We might want to rein in ICE, and get rid of the untrained recruits that Trump hired, by abolishing it is insanity.

So for the first time in my life, I'm supporting a MAGA Republican, Mike Rogers, to beat this guy in the general election.

Monday, August 03, 2026

Emily Wilson on Nolan's Odyssey

Emily Wilson, the translator upon whose work Nolan supposedly based his movie on, didn't seem to appreciate the author's work in a review she wrote for the London Review of Books.

In her review, Wilson said the movie lacked "psychological, emotional, political and ethical depth" and had "nothing convincing to say."

Ouch!

She went on to say, "I had hoped that Nolan's affinity with these Homeric themes might push him to new creative heights, and enable him to conjure more believable characters. But 'The Odyssey' features his usual combination of grandiosity and superficiality."

Double ouch!

She continued, "The film's vision is too confused, its characters too underdeveloped, to deliver what it half-promises in terms of big ideas – although it is very good at conveying big bangs and big giants."

Oh, my word!

Then she went after the script "The writing is abysmal. None of the characters has a convincing motivation for their actions or words. There are no sex scenes, and all the food looks horrible."

Double ouch with a cherry on top. Although I have to wonder why she's so concerned about the film not having any sex scenes?


Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Trump Approval Rating

People keep either applauding, or bemoaning depending upon their politics, the apparent beating in the polls that Trump has been taking. I'm not that impressed.

Yet, 70% of Republicans apparently still approve of him despite a horrible economy, a ridiculous war in Iran and the constant slew of demonstrably false claims that he spews on a regular basis.

In a recent YouGov survey, when asked "Which event in U.S. history are Americans most proud of?" 20% of Republicans answered "The Election of Donald Trump in 2016." 

When asked "Which parts of U.S. history are Americans most ashamed of?" 27% said the "Election of Joe Biden in 2020." Only 20% said "Slavery." 

When asked "Who is the greatest American in U.S. history?" The highest percentage response among Republicans was Donald Trump at 24%. Second was George Washington at 19%, and third was Abraham Lincoln at 18%. 

These people have the IQ of a gnat, so I believe the 70% number.

Most of these Trump supporters haven't been more than 100 miles away from where they were born. Yet they will pontificate about how terrible places like California and New York are despite never having been there. Then they're outraged and shocked when CNBC lists 10 Red States as the 10 worst states to live in.

Market Crash, July, 29th, 2026

The market took a beating today. The Dow dropped 1,153 points, the Nasdaq 433 points and the S&P 500 by 112 points.

The funny thing is I went on the deck a little before 3 PM and things looked like therer were improving. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 were actually positive and the Dow was down about 500 points which was a big improvement from the 800 points that it was down earlier.

When I came back inside, everything had fallen off a cliff. 

I assume that was a reaction to the fed holding rates steady? If it was, then it seems sort of strange considering that the probability of that happening was in the 70% range. Why panic over something that was expected to happen?