The Trump Administration

It’s the Clown Cabinet headed by a petulant toddler. The team he sent to negotiate with the Iranians is the Buffoon Brigade. But the really bad news is that 40% of the electorate appear to think that he’s doing a great job. I don’t get it. I really don’t. 

I will now rant for a couple of paragraphs so feel free to ignore me.

During the 2024 election I agreed that we needed to address illegal immigration. I wanted DEI to go away and I was sick and tired of the “woke” bullshit (“woke” = declaring anyone that disagreed with the left as racist, misogynist, homophobic, transphobic or some other nasty name and the constant race swapping in movies and on TV).

Having a degree in Economics, I understood the dynamics of inflation coming out of the pandemic better than most, and understood that the worst was over.

But, I didn’t trust Trump or the Republicans to address immigration and DEI and the “woke” bullshit I could live with. They certainly weren’t a big enough problem to put Trump back in the White House.

I also understood that Trump was lying about bringing down prices on day one. I told everyone I could reach that this was nonsense. We all see how well I did with that.

I am honestly surprised that he was stupid enough to attack Iran. The geography is all in their favor. The world economy is now in a mess thanks to Trump's incompetence.

I get the issue of not wanting Iran to have nukes. But Trump went about it the wrong way and that may be worse than doing nothing.

To Hormuz or not to Hormuz

The US Navy is now supposedly blockading the Straits of Hormuz in order to prevent Iranian ships from passing through. The Navy has reportedly seized at least one Iranian flagged ship.

The Iranians opened the straits for a short while but then closed them again. They have reportedly fired on at least one ship which was flying the Indian flag.

I have to say things like "supposedly" and "reportedly" because honestly, I don't know what the hell is actually going on, and it's next to impossible to figure out what reports to believe.

The ceasefire ends on Tuesday and talks are supposed to resume on Monday. We all saw how well talks went the last time around.

I suspect one of the problems is that Trump and company want a quick resolution while the Iranians want to drag things out and see how good a deal they can broker.

The market has pretty much recovered but we'll see what happens next week.

Genocidal, Apartheid, Colonialist

Genocidal, Apartheid and Colonialist are the three accusations that the US Left likes to toss against Israel. OK, Let's take a look.

Genocidal? The Palestinian population has increased 5x since 1967. That's not much of a genocide. 

Apartheid? The area is separated into three major regions. Gaza, Israel proper and the West Bank. Gaza is Palestinian and has a population of about 2.2 million. It's also controlled by the terrorist group Hamas. 

Israel has a population of 10 million of which 2 million are Palestinians. These Palestinians are Israeli citizens with full rights but face challenges similar to other ethnic minorities in other countries. 

The West Bank is further divided into Areas A, B and C as agreed to in the Oslo Accords in 1993. Area A is under the full control of the Palestinian Authority. Area B is under civil control of the Palestinian Authority but Israel provides security. Areas A & B have a population of around 3.3 million Palestinians. Area C is fully under Israeli control. There are about 400,000 Israeli settlers in Area C with Israeli citizenship and around 300,000 Palestinians with Palestinian Authority citizenship.

Travel for Palestinians within the West Bank, and between the West Bank and just about anywhere else, is severely restricted. The Israeli settlements in the West Bank are of questionable legality. The consensus of opinion is that they violate the Fourth Geneva Convention which prohibits an occupying power from transferring its civilians into occupied territory. Israel disputes this, arguing the territory is "disputed" rather than occupied.

Let's face it, Israel is an occupying power in the West Bank thus the extensive travel restrictions. Areas A&B are essentially isolated because they are surrounded by Israeli controlled territory. It's almost a military blockade but it's not apartheid. On the other hand, a country has the right to control who enters its territory. In other words, it's a royal mess.

Colonialist? Well, there are 400,000 Israeli settlers in Area C of the West Bank. Depending upon the legal status of Area C, that may well be colonialism.

Then there is East Jerusalem which was occupied by Israel during the 1967 war and officially annexed by it in 1980. The United Nations considers East Jerusalem as part of Palestinian Territories. Funny how no one complained when Jordan Annexed both the West Bank and East Jerusalem in 1950. The annexation was even recognized by the UK, Iraq and Pakistan. However Jordan essentially ceded sovereignty of the West Bank and East Jerusalem to the Palestinian Liberation Organization in 1988.

The Ignorance is Amazing

We all know that MAGAs simply parrot whatever they're told but the left isn't much better. They have evolved Israel into some imaginary bogeyman that, in their minds, has been pulling the strings in every confrontation the US has been involved in anywhere close to the Middle East.

For example, this post about wars that Israel has supposedly gotten the US into.

"Start with 9/11, Iraq, Syria, Libya, 

Afghanistan -20 YEARS.

Now Iran and who else???"

My response: (Yes, I got a little petulant because this isn't the first post like this)

What the hell are you talking about? Do yourself a favor and learn some actual history.

9/11 was an attack by Al-Qeada. It was primarily about US troops in Saudi Arabia although US support for Israel was also part of the motive. 

Let's face it, Arab Muslims in the Middle East have been trying to destroy Israel since 1948 and Arabs and Jews have been fighting over the region since at least the establishment of the Mandate for Palestine in 1922.

9/11 led directly to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Syria was all about ISIS and denying Russia control of the area.

The US has a strategic interest in the Middle East and has slowly been expanding its sphere of influence there. We have 50,000 troops spread out over Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. We also have friendly relations (in other words we give them money) with Israel and Egypt but no troops in either country. So Israel is just a small part of the total equation. 

Essentially you are blaming the mouse (Israel) for the actions of the elephant (the US).

Iran is the next logical step but it's a lot to chew off. US Presidents before Trump have been smart enough not to get into a confrontation because the geography is all in Iran's favor. 

Israel wants to eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah because they regularly fire missiles at Israel killing civilians. Imagine if Mexico and Canada fired missiles randomly at the US. Iran bankrolls Hamas and Hezbollah. I don't blame Israel for wanting to take down Iran. I blame Trump and Hegseth for letting Netanyahu talk them into thinking an air assault alone would manage to do that. We all see how well that worked out.

Which Libya are you talking about? In 1986 it was in retaliation for a Berlin bombing. In 2011 it was a UN sanctioned action that led to the fall of the Gaddafi regime. Israel wasn't involved in either of these two actions.

The Affordability Crisis

Prices jumped significantly between 2021 and 2023.

That price increase was driven by cost-push inflation. This occurs when production costs increase leading companies to increase prices. The primary driver for these increases was reestablishing supply lines after COVID.

But notice something. The supply lines have been reestablished but the prices didn't go back down. Instead they're now driving huge corporate profits.

Normal inflation is caused by demand-pull inflation which occurs when consumer demand exceeds available supply. When you raise salaries on a broad scale in order to try and catch up with cost-push inflation, it will often lead to demand-pull inflation because more people have more money to spend. 

But raising salaries will always outpace demand-pull inflation. When salaries fail to keep up with inflation it is almost always cost-push inflation that is causing the problem.

Ceasefire Crumbling

Apparently no one told Israel about the ceasefire. They continued their strikes in Lebanon so Iran shut the Straits of Hormuz again. Well, it was nice to have a couple of hours of peace.

This is going to send the market into a tailspin.

Ceasefire?

Trump claims to have signed a two week ceasefire with Iran tied to the opening of the Straits of Hormuz.

Can't wait to hear what the Iranians have to say about this two week ceasefire. 

In the meantime, Dow futures are up 800 points and Nasdaq futures are up 600 points so someone (I wonder who?) is making a ton of money.

Congress seriously needs to use these two weeks to impeach the crazy son of a bitch.

The 25th Amendment

Trump is becoming more and more unhinged. He has clearly lost it.

On Sunday he issued a profanity laced threat that no "leader" of a civilized nation should issue.

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP."

Add to this the fact that Hegseth has been forcing out senior military leaders and the situation is downright terrifying.

The 25th Amendment incudes procedures for a President who is physically, or mentally, incapacitated to step aside and allow the Vice President to take over.

Section 3 covers a voluntary action where the President himself declares to the Speaker of the House and President Pro Tempore of the Senate that he unable to perform his duties. The Vice President would take over until the President declares that he is again able to perform the duties of President.

Section 4 covers scenarios where the President is either unable to communicate or for the involuntary removal of a President for physical or mental reasons.

Who decides you ask? According to the Amendment, "the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide."

Since Congress hasn't provided for "such other body," most people interpret this to mean a majority of the cabinet.

Therein lies the 1st problem. Trump has chosen his cabinet for loyalty rather than competence. It seems unlikely a majority of them are going to declare him unfit.

If if Vance had the balls to initiate such an action (he doesn't), and even if he managed to get a majority of the cabinet to go along (he won't), Trump can contest it and declare that he is fit.

If that happens, which seems highly likely, "Congress shall decide the issue...by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office."

That seems really, really, unlikely.

The 25th Amendment clearly assumes that the VP, cabinet and Congress would place country over party and do the right thing. Unfortunately that may no longer be a valid assumption.

Trump's Speech

I listened to Trump's speech tonight. It was like listening to a six year old. A delusional six year old.

Honestly, I'm no wiser about what the hell is going on there because he provided absolutely no believable information. He also did a good job of insulting our European allies.

I cannot believe that someone actually allowed him to make this speech. I'd also like to know who wrote it. The bad news is that he's talking about the war continuing for another three to four weeks. That's not going to make the market happy.

I'm not sure what the hell comes next. The man is an absolute moron.

What's Going on in Iran?

That's a good question.

There isn't a lot of reliable information about the situation. The media is going wild and ushering in a new era of Yellow Journalism. They are publishing whatever they think will frighten the public and get the most clicks.

Trump has no idea what's going on and continues to make absurd proclamations. Hegseth uses briefings to play politics.

From what I can tell, Israel and the US are slowly dismantling Iran's ability to wage war. Israel, less squeamish than the US, has also been working on chopping off the head of the beast by eliminating Iran's leadership.

This could take a while and it's only been about three weeks. 

I would assume the ultimate objective is an Iranian government devoid of Islamic crazies that will cease to be a threat to the region and stop financing terrorist organization like Hezbollah and Hamas.

I don't see how that gets accomplished without a popular uprising.

The Stock Market is taking a beating due to rising oil and gas prices. Of course a higher than expected inflation report didn't help any. Overall the market is down about 5,000 points from its high in February. I'm personally down around $80,000 (ouch).

Right about now I see no end in sight but I suspect things will be settled by the summer one way or the other.

Trump's War

Trump's war continues. The Stock Market is in free fall, oil is over $100 a barrel which is driving gas prices through the roof.

Iran has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, no big surprise there, but now appears to be willing to allow any but US and Israeli ships to go through.

We'll see how that works out and if it will alleviate the oil prices and stock market woes.

US and Israel Attack Iran

The US and Israel have launched air strikes against Iran. Iran has attacked US bases and neighboring Arab countries in retaliation.

The concern is that Iran continues its nuclear program and may be developing long range missiles.

Does this make any sense?

I honestly don't know. My initial reaction is that Trump is crazy. I can understand Netanyahu's concern because Israel will be within range of an Iranian nuclear capability long before the US is. 

But is this the right approach? Armed conflict should always be a last resort because so many things can go wrong. So, until proven otherwise, mark me as opposed to this attack.

My Basement Leak VII

 I really didn't expect this to become a marathon.

Anyway, we got most of the mess cleaned up and threw out a bunch of stuff that we probably should have thrown out years ago.

We managed to order some furniture. A large couch and chair for downstairs and a chair to fill the hole in the living room upstairs. They say 8-12 weeks because it's all custom.

With the second big snowstorm on the way the weather is really straining the water proofing that we had done. I really don't need that to fail on me.

So far I haven't heard either sump pump go on. Let's hope it stays that way.

<<To Be Continued>>

My Basement Leak VI

So we started running around looking for furniture. We hit the local furniture outlet and began to lean towards a sofa, two chairs near the steps and our recliner near the fireplace. 

Unfortunately, some detailed measurements showed us that two chairs weren't going to fit well so we fell back to a single chair.

We liked the furniture in the outlet but, since everything was custom ordered, it would take 8-12 weeks to get it. Given our success with timing on this project, we decided to look around.

We tried several furniture stores and found that pillow backs were the most common style and we really wanted a tight back.

We did some more measuring and decided that we would go back to the outlet for at least the couch and large chair. That was Super Bowl Sunday. We were going to go the next day. I moved the bookcase back into place; we moved the recliner to where it was going to be and finally removed all of the tarps and assorted debris.

We were ready to go.

That's when we heard a loud sound from the unfinished area of the basement. The water pipe leading to one of the outside spigots had burst and we had water pouring into the unfinished area of the basement which spread to the finished area.

It was a mess. We couldn't get the shutoff valve to turn and didn't remember where the master shut-off was. My two daughters were catching the water in storage bins and dumping it outside while I was calling Gold Medal and the water company.

The water company didn't answer and Gold Medal couldn't get someone to me to fix the pipe until Tuesday. In desperation we called the local police. They sent two officers. One of them located the master shut off and turned off the water.

Whew, so now we had no water until Tuesday and an absolute mess. My daughter had moved bookcase, piano and television equipment to the other side of the room to get is away from the water. We began cleaning up.

We're still cleaning up and we've got scuff marks from the piano all over our brand new flooring. 

My oldest daughter went out and bought water bottles so we could manually flush during the night. The next day she headed to Cleveland, my youngest daughter went to work and I decided to tackle the shut-off valve that wouldn't move.

I got it to move but it took a few tries until it appeared to be all the way shut and I didn't see any water dripping down. I decided I didn't trust it and called Gold Medal to see if I could get another shut-off valve in series with the one that was there. I figured I'd fix the pipe in the spring.

That they could do that Monday between 12 PM and 4 PM. That sounded good to me.

But 4 PM came and went. Then I got a call telling me that it would be closer to 6 PM.

Then 6 PM came and went. I called to make sure that someone was still coming and they assured me that he would be there around 7 PM.

At about 7:20 a familiar face showed up. It was Mr. Jones the same guy that had fixed the heating pipe leak and another problem that we had last year. He agreed with my assessment of the situation and a half hour later I had a second shut-off valve.

We had the water back on but we still had one hell of a mess to finish cleaning up.

As we worked out way through the unfinished half of the basement, we began filling up garbage bags. A lot of stuff had gotten drenched and was unsalvageable.

I ordered a wet vac from Amazon and my daughter borrowed one from someone in the school where she worked. As it turned out the wet vac wasn't really necessary as we mopped up the water with newspaper and towels. The towels we threw out. We then put a big tub of Damprid  to soak up the excess moisture.

I got some cheap towels from Amazon to tide us over until my wife goes get shopping for towels and I now have two wet vacs in my foyer, one in a box and the other on top of a container. I think I'll have my daughter return the one she borrowed with our sincere thanks. The other one I'm sending back to Amazon.

Thursday is garbage pickup so we shlepped two garbage cans full and about a dozen extra bags to the curb. The garbage gays emptied the cans but left the bags. Why not kick me while I'm down?

We refiled the two garbage cans and we're going to pile up the rest in the garage. We'll take them out a garbage can or two each garbage day until they're gone.

To help reorganize things I ordered six containers from Walmart. If you think that I'm going broke, you're right.

<<To Be Continued>>

Is Trump Dying?

 I doubt it. I see these online pundits making dire predictions due to a few bruises, he gets words confused occasionally or because not all of his doctor visits are made public.

I love it when youngish people talk about older people. I was at my vascular surgeon in December to check on how my repaired arteries are doing. I'm not exactly sure of how we got there but he said to me "80 is not for the fainthearted." OK, I'm 77 so I might have a few years to go. Here's the problem, everything starts to break down and some days are worse than others. 

I feel it. My reflexes are still very good but they're not what they were even 10 years ago. My balance is still good but steps are a challenge. I get bruises on my arms of varying sizes and intensities. I have trouble recalling things that I used to know. Google is my best friend because now I often have to look up things that I  always knew. I use a calculator for things I used to easily do in my head. I have trouble solving problems that I'm pretty sure would have been trivial for me 10 or 20 years ago. I have no patience for leaning new things. I can't sprint. My left knee and left hip hurt. My right knee complains occasionally. I can't lift my left arm because my left shoulder is shot.

So I'm not convinced that Trump is close to the end. Remember he's two years older than I am plus he's clearly overweight, and may be obese, while my BMI is in the 22.5 range.

Second Person Killed by ICE

A second person has been killed by ICE in Minneapolis. His name was Alex Pretti. He was 37 years old and worked as a nurse.

As with Irene Good the administration immediately put out a "agents feared for their lives" story and vilified Pretti. He was carrying a 9 mm handgun with extra clips but he hand a valid conceeled carry license. 

Video from the incident appears to contradict the administration story. Pretti was carrying a woman when he tried to help a woman. He never appears to draw his weapon.

He is knocked to the ground by ICE agents and then one agent appears to take Pretti's gun.

Only then is he shot and killed.

This is ridiculous. The agents involved need to be taken off duty until after a full investigation. These ICE are clearly out of control are also clearly lacking in anything remotely like standard police training.

My Basement Leak V

The Flooring Guys showed up bright and early on January 2nd and did a nice job installing the flooring. The lead installer left us with some advice to put cups under the piano. Oh goody, something else to do.

The baseboards were, as promised, primed white and it was pretty clear they couldn't stay that way. We hopped over to the flooring store top pay our outstanding bill and they gave us a lead on a painter.

I decide to call a Handyman I had talked to previously instead. I called him on Monday, January 5th and left a message. I got a call back the next day and we set up an appointment for him to look at what was involved that Wednesday, January 7th.

We decided to do the baseboard the same color and finish that we had done the chair railing and decided to do the railings in the same color but with a semi-gloss finish. 

The piano presented a problem. We decided that we could live with leaving the baseboard behind the piano white if necessary. I also discovered a telephone wire coming out of the wall near the fireplace. I had no memory of this and I'm debating if I should clip it off or just leave it behind the bookcase that's going back in that spot. I'm leaning toward just hiding it behind the bookcase.

I got some cups and a small jack for lifting the piano to put them under the wheels. We shall see if that ever happens.

The Handyman showed up and inspected the task. He didn't seem too concerned about moving the piano but we shall see. We agreed that I would supply the paint.

On Tuesday, January 13th, I found an estimate for $720 which seemed reasonable so I accepted the bid. The next day we went to Home Depot to pick up the paint. That night I got a call from the Handyman and we set up an appointment for January 20th to do the job.

Woohoo!!! That's tomorrow. Hopefully all goes well.

<<To Be Continued>>

Update: The paint job went very well. I made one mistake though. We have a closet under the stairs and I didn't realize they put baseboards in the closet. So we have the original primed white there. Oh well. On to furniture shopping!

Woman Killed by ICE Agent II

More video of the incident has emerged and it's incredible how people will see what they want to see. Of course I'm not immune from this and neither is anyone else but I will try to be as impartial as I can.

I've watched videos from several angles repeatedly and here is my interpretation of the incident. The key individuals in the incident are Renee Nicole Wood who was in her Honda Pilot and Jonathan E. Ross who fired the fatal shots.

Ms. Good was using her car to interfere with ICE agent operation. Her wife was doing anything she could to incite the agents.

One agent apparently gets fed up with the antics, yells at Good to get out of the car and attempts to open the driver side door but it's locked. Good's wife tries to get into the passenger side but that door is also locked. Ross is near the front of the car video taping.

Good has by this point stacked up at least two charges. She is interfering with police operations by blocking the road and has refused a lawful order to exit her vehicle (see Pennsylvania v. Mimms).

Good now apparently chooses to flee the area. This adds a third charge of fleeing and eluding. She steps on the gas, turns the wheel to the right and strikes Ross who has moved to the left front of the car. This is battery on a Law Enforcement Officer with a deadly weapon.

This is where things get a little fuzzy. When was the first of the three shots fired? If it was fired prior to contact, or during contact, then it's self defense and justified. If it's fired after the danger has passed and Good is already fleeing then it is unjustified use of lethal force.

The key court case here is Tennessee v. Garner where the SCOTUS ruled that the Fourth Amendment prohibits the use of deadly force unless it is necessary to prevent the escape of a fleeing felon and the officer has probable cause to believe that the suspect poses a significant threat of violence to the officer or the community. 

It looks to me that the front of the car has already passed Ross and that Good was clearly in the act of fleeing the scene before the first shot is fired. Clearly, the other two shots were fired after the immediate danger had passed.

But it's close. It's a matter of one or two seconds and maybe not even that much. Can we seriously hold a human being, even one supposedly highly trained, to that sort of accuracy?

I don't know. But what I do know is that it's up to a jury to decide. Ross should be arrested and charged with either 2nd degree murder or voluntary manslaughter, a Grand Jury should decide whether he should be indicted and a jury of his peers should decide if he's guilty. I don't understand why this isn't happening.

College Football Playoffs III

I said nothing about College Football this year and now the playoffs are upon us. I figure the least I can do is document the results.

OK, the 1st round.

(9) Alabama - 34 (8) Oklahoma - 24

(5) Oregon - 51 (12) James Madison - 34

(6) Mississippi - 41 (11) Tulane - 10

(10) Miami - 10 (7) Texas A&M - 3

Now, moving on to the Quarterfinals. Last year all four teams with a bye lost so there was some concern moving forward.

Cotton Bowl

(10) Miami - 24 (2) Ohio State - 14

Orange Bowl

(5) Oregon - 23 (4) Texas Tech - 0

Rose Bowl

(1) Indiana - 38 (9) Alabama - 3

Sugar Bowl

(6) Mississippi - 39 (3) Georgia 34

Well, three of the top four seeds lost. That's better than last year but we're still talking about a 1-7 record. 

The semi-finals. Shall I choose? I'm thinking Indiana and Miami. Isn't Thursday night a funny time to play? It's because the NFL Wildcard games are on Saturday in the 8 PM slot.

Fiesta Bowl - Thursday 1/8, 7:30 PM

(6) Mississippi - 27 (10) Miami - 31

This was a crazy see-saw game with four lead changes in the 4th quarter and a Hail Mary falling incomplete on the last play. Well, I'm 1-0.

Peach Bowl - Friday 1/9, 7:30 PM

(1) Indiana - 56 (5) Oregon - 22

This one surprised me a bit. I thought this was going to be closer game. It would have been if it wasn't for four turnovers including a blocked punt and a pick-6 on the first play of the game. Anyway, I'm 2-0.

National Championship - Monday 1/19, 7:30 PM

(10) Miami vs (1) Indiana

Hard to pick against Indiana and I'm not going to but Miami has been on a roll so who knows? I'm still going with Indiana.

College Football Playoffs II

I said nothing about College Football this year and now the playoffs are upon us. I figure the least I can do is document the results.

OK, the 1st round.

(9) Alabama - 34 (8) Oklahoma - 24

(5) Oregon - 51 (12) James Madison - 34

(6) Mississippi - 41 (11) Tulane - 10

(10) Miami - 10 (7) Texas A&M - 3

Now, moving on to the Quarterfinals. Last year all four teams with a bye lost so there was some concern moving forward.

Cotton Bowl

(10) Miami - 24 (2) Ohio State - 14

Orange Bowl

(5) Oregon - 23 (4) Texas Tech - 0

Rose Bowl

(1) Indiana - 38 (9) Alabama - 3

Sugar Bowl

(6) Mississippi - 39 (3) Georgia 34

Well, three of the top four seeds lost. That's better than last year but we're still talking about a 1-7 record. 

The semi-finals.

Fiesta Bowl - Thursday 1/8, 7:30 PM

(6) Mississippi - 27 (10) Miami - 31

This was a crazy see-saw game with four lead changes in the 4th quarter and a Hail Mary falling incomplete on the last play. Well, I'm 1-0.

Peach Bowl - Friday 1/9, 7:30 PM

(1) Indiana vs (5) Oregon

Shall I choose? I'm thinking Indiana and Miami. Isn't Thursday night a funny time to play? It's because the NFL Wildcard games are on Saturday in the 8 PM slot.

Woman Killed by ICE Agent

An American citizen, by the name of Renee Nicole Good, was shot and killed by an ICE agent during a confrontation in Minneapolis.

Exactly what occurred is unclear but video from the incident shows an ICE agent talking to Good in her car. The car then backs away from the agent but shots were already being fired.

It looked to me like Good was trying to flee the encounter. I saw no immediate danger to the ICE agent. She was leaving the area. There was no immediate danger so the use of deadly was unjustified. Real police understand this. Poorly trained ICE goons obviously do not.

The ICE agent needs to be arrested and charged with 2nd Degree Murder. Whether to indict or not will be left up to a Grand Jury.

Update: A second video makes it even clearer that Good was attempting to flee the area and, in this video, it appears that that first shots aren't fired until after she begins to pull away.

College Football Playoffs

 I said nothing about College Football this year and now the playoffs are upon us. I figure the least I can do is document the results.

OK, the 1st round.

(9) Alabama - 34 (8) Oklahoma - 24

(5) Oregon - 51 (12) James Madison - 34

(6) Mississippi - 41 (11) Tulane - 10

(10) Miami - 10 (7) Texas A&M - 3

Now, moving on to the Quarterfinals. Last year all four teams with a bye lost so there was some concern moving forward.

Cotton Bowl

(10) Miami - 24 (2) Ohio State - 14

Orange Bowl

(5) Oregon - 23 (4) Texas Tech - 0

Rose Bowl

(1) Indiana - 38 (9) Alabama - 3

Sugar Bowl

(6) Mississippi - 39 (3) Georgia 34

Well, three of the top four seeds lost. That's better than last year but we're still talking about a 1-7 record. 

The semi-finals.

Fiesta Bowl - Thursday 1/8, 7:30 PM

(6) Mississippi vs (10) Miami

Peach Bowl - Friday 1/9, 7:30 PM

(1) Indiana vs (5) Oregon

Shall I choose? I'm thinking Indiana and Miami. Isn't Thursday night a funny time to play? It's because the NFL Wildcard games are on Saturday in the 8 PM slot.

Maduro

I know I've been falling down on the down and allowing too much stuff to slide by. I'm just tired.

So, Trump actually sent a military mission to Venezuela, arrested (kidnapped?) Nicolás Maduro and his wife to face drug charges here in the US and flattened a few installations killing some people here and there, mostly there.

I don't know what to make of this. I suppose we will have to wait and see.

Universal Healthcare (again)

Let me start by saying that I think Universal Healthcare would be a good thing. I just think it's complicated.

 First of all, health care is NOT free any place in the world. When people talk about “free” healthcare what they mean is that you don’t pay for it at the point of service.

Basically everyone chips in all the time whether you’re using medical care or not in the same way that everyone pays their insurance premiums whether they’re using the benefits or not.

The BIG difference is the government doesn’t have to make a profit while insurance companies typically do.

I saw someone say “Americans could decide today to have free healthcare.” Aside from my previous point that it’s NOT free, there are some issues. Note that none of these issues are insurmountable if the will is there but they need to be adequately studied and addressed.

Now for some back of the envelope calculations.

Let’s start with the cost. What we spend as of 2021: Medicare $901 billion, Medicaid $734 billion, Private Health Insurance Spending $1,211 billion, out of pocket $433 billion. That's a total of almost $3.3 trillion.

A University of Massachusetts study showed that we would save $5.1 trillion over 10 years in healthcare costs with Universal Healthcare. That would bring the total cost down to about $2.8 trillion per year. We’re already spending $1.6 trillion in Medicare and Medicaid so that leaves a potential shortfall of $1.2 trillion.

But going to a single payer government healthcare plan is going to save employers what they’re now paying for employee healthcare insurance so a reasonable place to go for additional funding would be a per employee payroll tax. There are about 160 million workers in the US so that’s about $7,500 per employee. Employers are paying between $6,800 and $7,500 per employee now so let’s assume a payroll tax of $6,000. That leaves us short by $1,500 per employee or about $240 billion.

The US Income tax revenue is $4.9 trillion so that would mean about a 5% tax increase across the board.

All of the above might cover the cost but lots of luck getting this through Congress.

Second, we provide universal healthcare for no cost at the point of use and the demand for healthcare services is going to skyrocket. I don’t think that’s going to affect the cost much but it could reduce the quality of service and it will put an enormous strain on our medical infrastructure. I’m not sure it can handle the additional load. So that might mean a required investment in additional infrastructure of an unknown amount of money.

Third, we need to be careful about assuming what works in Canada (42 million people), the UK (70 million people) or even Germany (84 million people) is going to scale to a nation of 340 million people spread out over a ridiculous amount of area. Russia has 145 million people and is bigger than the US but does anyone really want healthcare on a par with Russia? The Chinese arguably have it worse than the US since reportedly often only about half of medical costs are covered (I don’t know how true this is. I’m relying on Google).

So it’s not like flipping a switch. There’s a lot of preliminary work to be done in order to put together a workable strategy. What the government should be doing is organizing a committee of experts, medical, educational, financial and tax, to study the problem for a year and produce a set of recommendations.

I suspect that will never happen with either the Republicans or the Democrats in charge.