Friday, December 02, 2016

College Football Poll week 13

The big game was Michigan at Ohio State. It was a nail biter with OSU winning in double overtime thanks to "the spot." On 4th and one in the second overtime OSU QB J.T. Barrett made the 1st down by half an eyelash. On the next play Curtis Samuel took it 15 yards to win it.

The call was some close that some dude did a pixel analysis on the play and concluded the 1st down was made by three pixels. I saw it; it was close.

#1 - Alabama (12-0) (beat Auburn 30-12)
#2 - Ohio State (11-1) (beat Michigan 30-27)
#3 - Clemson (11-1) (beat South Carolina 56-7)
#4 - Washington (11-1) (beat Washington State 45-17)

#5 - Michigan (10-2) (lost to Ohio State 30-27)
#6 - Wisconsin (10-2) (beat Minnesota 31-17)
#7 - Penn State (10-2) (beat Michigan State 45-12)
#8 - Colorado (10-2) (beat Utah 27-22)
#9 - Oklahoma (9-2) (bye)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (bye)

So both Washington and Clemson hopped over Michigan while Colorado moved up by playing while Oklahoma prepared for Oklahoma State.

The only other teams from the ton ten playing will be in the conference championship games but there are going to be some biggies that could easily shake things up. Week 15 there will be only the Army vs. Navy game (GO Army, BEAT Navy).

#1 Alabama will be at #15 Florida in the SEC Championship
#4 Washington will host #8 Colorado in the PAC-12 Championship
#3 Clemson will be at #23 Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship
#6 Wisconsin will be at #7 Penn State in the Big 10 Championship

Now, while one wouldn't think there would be any surprises one never knows. That why they have to play the game. My guess is the best chance for an upset would be Colorado beating Washington. That could be a real mess if Wisconsin beats Penn State. Who then would be #4? Michigan, Wisconsin or Washington?

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

College Football Poll Week 12

The standings after week 12.

#1 - Alabama (11-0) (beat Chattanooga 31-3)
#2 - Ohio State (10-1) (beat Michigan State 17-16)
#3 - Michigan (10-1) (beat Indiana 20-10)
#4 - Clemson (10-1) (beat Wake Forest 35-13)
#5 - Washington (10-1) (beat Arizona State 44-18)
#6 - Wisconsin (9-2) (beat Purdue 49-20)
#7 - Penn State (9-2) (beat Rutgers 39-0)
#8 - Oklahoma (9-2) (beat West Virginia 56-28)
#9 - Colorado (9-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (beat TCU 31-6)

Dropping out of the top 10:
#11 - Louisville (9-2) (lost to Houston 36-10)

The most interesting game for week 13 by far will be Michigan at Ohio State. Those two don't like each other normally but meeting head to head at 10-1 with a spot in the playoffs potentially on the line should make things extra interesting.

It's set for noon on Saturday.

Elsewhere Washington will be at Washington State, Wisconsin hosts an 8-3 Minnesota and Alabama will host Auburn.

Monday, November 21, 2016

College Football Poll 2016

Moving on to more entertaining topics, the College Football playoff polling has begun. In fact it began two weeks ago so I'll have to catch up.

As of week 9 we had:

#1 - Alabama (8-0)
#2 - Clemson (8-0)
#3 - Michigan (8-0)
#4 - Texas A&M (7-1)
#5 - Washington (8-0)
#6 - Ohio State (7-1)
#7 - Louisville (7-1)
#8 - Wisconsin (6-2)
#9 - Auburn (6-2)
#10 - Nebraska (7-1)

The big question would be why Texas A&M would be ahead of Washington.

As of week 10 we had:

#1 - Alabama (9-0) (beat LSU 10-0)
#2 - Clemson (9-0) (beat Syracuse 54-0)
#3 - Michigan (9-0) (beat Maryland 59-3)
#4 - Washington (9-0) (beat California 66-27)
#5 - Ohio State (8-1) (beat Nebraska 62-3)
#6 - Louisville (8-1) (beat Boston College 52-7)
#7 - Wisconsin (7-2) (beat Northwestern 21-7)
#8 - Texas A&M (7-2) (lost to Mississippi State 35-28)
#9 - Auburn (7-2) (beat Vanderbilt 23-16)
#10 - Penn State (7-2) (beat Iowa 41-14)

Dropping out of the ton ten:
#19 - Nebraska (7-2) (lost to Ohio State 62-3)

As of week 11 we have:

#1 - Alabama (10-0) (beat Mississippi State 51-3)
#2 - Ohio State (9-1) (beat Maryland 62-3)
#3 - Michigan (9-1) (lost to Iowa 14-13)
#4 - Clemson (9-1) (lost to Pittsburgh Syracuse 43-42)
#5 - Louisville (9-1) (beat Wake Forest 44-12)
#6 - Washington (9-1) (lost to USC 26-13)
#7 - Wisconsin (8-2) (beat Illinois 48-3)
#8 - Penn State (8-2) (beat Indiana 45-31)
#9 - Oklahoma (8-2) (beat Baylor 45-24)
#10 - Colorado (8-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)

Dropping out of the ton ten:
#15 - Auburn (7-3) (lost to Georgia 13-7)
#25 - Texas A&M (7-3) (lost to Oklahoma State 45-44)

I find it interesting that Michigan lost to Iowa but held its place and Clemson lost to Pittsburgh but only dropped from #2 to #4 but Washington lost two spots to #6 losing to USC despite USC having a better record (7-3) than either Iowa or Pittsburgh (both 6-4).

I suppose the PAC-12 just don't get no respect when compared to the ACC or Big 10.

Twelve Days Later

OK, so twelve days have passed since the election and I'm sort of standing and leaning against a convenient wall watching the shrapnel fly around.

Luckily just about all of it is imaginary.

Yes there have been a number of "racist" incidents most of which have been perpetrated by younger folks. Despite all of the wringing of hands and moaning and groaning I'm not all that concerned. It will taper off and at least we're finding out who the racist assholes are.

On the other hand, the people the Trump is appointing to the government might well turn out to be the least qualified group of clowns ever appointed to high government office.

Luckily the bureaucracy will probably just chug along in spite of them and at some point even Trump is going to figure out how incompetent they are and clean house.

My one enormous disappointment is that even though he won the stupid son of a bitch is still whining. All I hear is "whine, whine, whine."

Mike Pence went to see Hamilton, got roundly booed by the audience and then was treated to what amounted to a we sincerely hope you and Trump aren't as big assholes as you sound message from the cast.

Trump demanded an apology and of course every one laughed at him. He needs to get used to (1) being criticized. (2) being insulted and  (3) being ignored.

You see, he's used to being a boss where none of those three things could happen without dire consequences to the fool that engaged in them. But a leader has to learn how to handle those things and, if possible, eliminate the basis for that sort of resistance.

That's the difference between a leader and a boss.

I would not follow Trump into combat because he's not a leader.

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

May you live in Interesting Times.

That's an old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times."

Well, after last night things are certainly going to get interesting. With Trump in the White House and the Republicans in control of Congress what can we expect?

Certainly a rollback of Obama's immigration executive orders.

Very probably a flat out repeal of Obamacare.

Very probably a move toward tax reform. Exactly what shape that might take is not all that clear. I suspect Congressional Republicans and Trump have different ideas.

Very probably bad news on the Supreme Court. This will most likely be his one payback to the religious right for their votes.

Beyond that, who knows? And this is the big problem, He's far too erratic and unpredictable. It's only a matter of time before he runs into some sort of roadblock, either domestic or foreign. Does he try to work around it or steamroll over it?

Well, we're stuck with it, For better or worse.

On the bright side, the market didn't tank like it did after Brexit. It's actually up about 200 points, and at least it's over. We won't have to listen to Trump whine.

To add insult to injury Josh Gottheimer beat Scott Garrett in my home district. I now have a democratic congressman for all the good it will do me.

Election Night

Well, here we go.

7:30 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3

Trump takes Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky.
Clinton takes Vermont.

Trump leads in New Hampshire, Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in Florida.

If Trump manages to take Virginia, that's probably the ball game.

8:00 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3

Trump takes no states the last half hour.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.

Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.

Virginia always like to give me a hard time. The gap in Florida has been closing and I wouldn't get too excited about Ohio.

8:30 EST
Trump - 60
Clinton - 44

Trump takes Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina.
Clinton takes Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland. Delaware and DC.

Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Rhode Island, Maine and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio.

Trump is pulling away in Florida and gaining in Ohio and North Carolina. His lead in Virginia is holding steady.

9:00 EST
Trump - 66
Clinton - 48

Trump takes Mississippi
Clinton takes Rhode Island.

Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, North Dakota. Ohio and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina and Illinois.

This election might make a lot of people look silly and send them back to reconsider their election models. Trump looks like he's headed for a big night.

9:30 EST
Trump - 129
Clinton - 104

Trump takes Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Arkansas and Wyoming.
Clinton takes Illinois, Connecticut and New York.

Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Colorado.

Oh this does not look good. Virginia may turn out to be the critical state. Of course with Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota all in the wrong column at the moment, maybe not. Trump has also just taken the lead in New Hampshire.

10:00 EST
Trump - 137
Clinton - 104

Trump takes Louisiana.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.

Trump leads in Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota and Colorado.

Clinton is now losing in all three of the four toss-up states. The other, Nevada, still has the polls open. She's also losing in three states she was supposed to win. Where's that light switch I think the party is winding down.

Oh wow, Virginia just flipped. Still things are very ugly in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Michigan. They're not so good in Wisconsin either.

10:30 EST
Trump - 150
Clinton - 109

Trump takes Montana and Missouri,
Clinton takes New Mexico.

Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa and Colorado.

Well, things look quite ugly. Of course a lot depends upon what precincts have reported but the hole is getting pretty deep. The popular vote at the moment has Trump at 48,94% and Clinton at 47.01% so it looks like we'll have a minority president and very possibly a president that loses the popular vote.

This is pretty screwed up.

I'm not sure why they haven't called Ohio or Florida yet. I don't see any way for Clinton to come back in either state.

11:00 EST
Trump - 197
Clinton - 131

Trump takes Ohio and Florida.
Clinton takes Virginia and Colorado.

Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Iowa.

As far as I can see the road to 270 electoral votes has just about closed completely for Clinton. Here comes President Trump unless Michigan and Wisconsin recover and she somehow pulls out Nevada because it looks to me like Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire are gone.

Hmm, looks like Trump is gaining ground in the popular vote. He now leads 49.14% to 46.62%. But of course California is still to come.

11:30 EST
Trump - 216
Clinton - 197

Trump takes Idaho and North Carolina.
Clinton takes California, Oregon and Hawaii.

Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Hampshire and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.

This one looks like it's going to take a while to get the final numbers but to be honest it looks all over but the search for the guilty and the punishment of the innocent. As incredible as it sounds, it looks as if we've just elected Donald Trump president.

Or have we? The situation is like this: Washington, Wisconsin and Michigan have all got to recover and Nevada, Pennsylvania. Minnesota and Maine all have to hold and we'll probably have a Constitutional crisis on our hands. If any of those seven things don't happen, Donald Trump will be the next president.

12:00 EST
Trump - 238
Clinton - 209

Trump takes Georgia and Utah.
Clinton takes Washington.

Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.

OK, Washington appears to have come home. One down and six to go.

I don't see much movement in either Michigan or Wisconsin. Trump's lead seems to be holding steady. If he wins either state everything else is sort of moot.

Wisconsin looks like it's just about gone. Pennsylvania is actually closer than Wisconsin right now.

In the meantime the popular vote is now 48.47% to 47%.

Over in the Senate the Republicans are ahead 49-46. This is shaping up to be the Republicans control everything. There goes the Supreme Court, any progress on climate change and Obamacare. Gee, I hope Social Security and Medicare survive.

I suspect the issue here was the large number of undecided voters. Clearly they decided to give Trump and the Republicans control. I'm embarrassed for the country. Let's at least hope we can avoid a nuclear war or a financial meltdown.

Trump is actually pulling away in Wisconsin and holding his lead in Michigan. He looks to be headed to at least 287 votes and perhaps more depending upon how Maine splits up and whether Pennsylvania, which is much closer than either Michigan or Wisconsin right now, flips into his column. He could have as many as 311 electoral votes.

12:30 EST
Trump - 244
Clinton - 209

Trump takes Iowa.
Clinton takes

Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.

The question for me is when do I pack it in?

OK, Pennsylvania just flipped to red. I think I'm going to concede and go get some sleep. It's going to be President Trump.

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Thoughts before the Plunge

It's pushing 6 PM. My wife and I voted this morning about 9 AM. She was voter #80; I was voter #81. My oldest daughter went before she went to work right as the polls opened. She was voter #1.

Assuming no surprises, and Pennsylvania and Michigan could turn into unpleasant surprises for Hillary Clinton, the election will come down to New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada.

New Hampshire's and Florida's polls will close at 7 PM. North Carolina will follow at 7:30 PM. Pennsylvania's will close at 8 PM; Michigan closes at 8 PM as well. Nevada's won't close until 10 PM EST.

I expect this to be a long night. I don't expect any of these states to be called quickly. It's quite likely that Ohio will take a while as well.

I just want it all to end tonight one way or the other.

Elections used to be fun. This election has not been fun.

Monday, November 07, 2016

Election 2016 IX Part B

For everyone laughing at my 270-268 Trump electoral victory I might point out that Real Clear Politics has it 272-266 Clinton.

The difference is I don't feel comfortable with New Hampshire and that's where my 270-268 number comes from.

What are the key states from the four tracking states I'm following or at least the states where there are potential disagreements. There appear to be four main ones.

New Hampshire
Real Clear Politics - Clinton
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton

Nevada
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Trump

North Carolina
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Clinton

Florida
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton

There seems to be agreement on all of the other states although some are marked as very close. New Hampshire, although it's now unanimous, has just today slipped back into the Clinton fold which is why I'm uncomfortable with it. Note that any or all of these states could be so close as to make us go long past election day.

Election 2016 IX

Well, here we are on the eve of the election. I've been silent for two weeks primarily because I have been skeptical about just about everything and more than a little disgusted with both campaigns and both candidates.

I almost broke my silence when the FBI released its letter about another 1,000 Clinton emails but decided if I didn't have anything good to say, and I didn't think I could avoid cursing at Clinton, I should wait.

As it turned out, as suspected, it was much ado about nothing except probably for the facts that it helped Trump particularly in battlegrpound states and that Comey may have violated the Hatch act.

The Hatch Act which prohibits federal employees, except for the President, Vice President and other exempt employees, from participating in political campaigns or political acts.

Did Comey in fact violate the Hatch Act? I say suspend the bastard and let a board of inquiry decide. If the board decides he did, then he should be removed from office. Shooting him might be a bit extreme but I'd consider it.

The ultimate result is Comey's disregard for ethics has probably impacted elections because early voting occurring while the email cloud existed and could affect not only the presidential race but senate and congressional races.

Comey really should be rendered persona-non-grata regardless of who wins but you can be sure he won't be if the Republicans are elected.

So where are we?

The Republicans will hold onto the house thanks to their gerrymandering skill. Personally I'm guessing Republican Scott Garrett will hold onto his seat in my district. Both he and Democratic challenger Josh Gottheimer have run dirty as hell campaigns. In my opinion neither of them should win.

The Senate is a toss-up. Different sites are all over the map. It looks like at best a 51-49 situation for one party or the other. If the Republicans hold the senate and Clinton wins, she might as well go on vacation for four years because she isn't going to manage to accomplish anything. The Republicans are even saying they won't consider any Clinton Supreme Court nominees.

As for the presidency, I don't like the numbers I see. I think Trump has the inside track and based upon my most recent analysis he wins by a ridiculously close 270-268.

Every other analysis I've seen seems to disagree with me so here's hoping they're right and I'm wrong. But I have this really bad feeling that I'm not wrong.

Hopefully tomorrow will tell because the worst possible result would be an inconclusive election like the 2000 fiasco. Given how close I think it's going to be, that's not out of the question.

Also not out of the question would be Clinton winning the popular vote while Trump wins the electoral vote. I think the opposite is less likely.

"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;...In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility: But when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger;..."

Monday, October 24, 2016

Election 2016 VIII

It's been 25 days since Election 2016 VII because I no longer trust the polls or anything else.

I'm watching the country disintegrate in a way I suppose I've always suspected would be coming.

On one hand are the voices of reason and on the other the voices of fear and fear is a powerful emotion.

For too long now Republicans have pounded away with a message intended to instill fear in its base and to blame all of the issues underlying that fear upon people who look different.

Yet nothing ever seemed to change because the message was putting the blame on people who were pretty much innocent of causing the problem. After decades of "those other people are stealing what's rightfully yours" the crows have come home to roost. The end result of that message that is the candidacy of Donald Trump.

I don't believe the polls. I believe my gut and my gut says that Trump has a good chance to pull this one out. Then what?

You can be sure that it will be nothing good and you can be sure that the poor saps that voted for him will be worse off but still being told it's the fault of people who look different.

If you tell a lie often enough and with enough conviction, even fairly intelligent people will start to believe it and Trump and the Republicans have been lying from the beginning and the lies are being believed.

I would like to document one issue and that is the 33,000 emails that were deleted.

No Clinton didn't break the law when she had those 33,000 emails deleted. She had tasked her lawyers to divide the emails on her private server into work related and private. The work related emails were turned over to the Department of State and the server contractor was directed the remaining emails in December of 2014.

The Select Committee on Benghazi did not ask for all emails on the private server to be preserved until March of 2015.

I used to delete emails all the time from my work server. Typically when the numbers got too large I would delete everything but the last three months or so. The important stuff I left tucked away in separate files.

Even the backups were eventually deleted by the IT department. We were under no obligation to save emails just in case someone decided they wanted to see them and neither was Clinton.

Anyway, so much for that lie. I'm going to stay quiet now until November 9th.