Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Israeli September Election

The disadvantage of a parliamentary system is you can end up with election fatigue.

Netanyahu failed to build a ruling coalition after April's election so they're going to try it again this month.

Netanyahu and Likud are pretty much playing the same hand as the last time around, name dropping Trump every two minutes and promising to annex parts of the West Bank.

This time around however he's identified the Jordan Valley, which runs along the border with Jordan, as the first annexation target and claims this has the support of the Trump administration.

Any US support for a unilateral annexation, which would be widely viewed in the global community as illegal, would be temporary if a Democrat unseats Trump in 2020.

In the meantime, an election rally with a scheduled speech by Netanyahu was delayed as Bibi was ushered off stage to avoid two rockets fired from Gaza. I think I would have stayed on stage and taken my chances considering how close this election appears to be.

Don't expect Blue and White, Netanyahu's main opponent in the election, to run to the negotiating tables either as they have clearly indicated that the security of the state of Israel will be their first concern.

Based on the polls Likud and Blue and White appear neck and neck in the September 17 election but it looks like Likud might have the upper hand in forming a majority coalition.

Israel's president, Reuven Rivlin, will decide which party leader has the best chance of putting together a majority coalition and that party will have a little over a month to form a government.

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