There are currently 163,869 reported case in the US and 3,018 deaths.
New York has 67,384 cases and 1,227 deaths
New Jersey has 16,636 cases and 198 deaths
California has 7,289 cases and 146 deaths
Michigan has 6,498 cases and 185 deaths
Massachusetts has 5,752 and 56 deaths
Things seem to be out of control here in New Jersey now as well as in New York. Trump has stopped talking about reopening the economy by Easter.
Food is getting harder to locate. They said put in stocks for two weeks. Now it looks like six to eight weeks is more like it.
The problem with ordering delivery from grocery stores is you don't know what you're going to actually get. Paper good are just about impossible especially toilet paper. Now bread is becoming increasingly difficult to locate. I try to keep ordering it on the off chance I might get lucky.
We have a ton of frozen vegetables so, if worse comes to worse, it's vegetarian time.
They're estimating 200,000 deaths in the US alone. This is the scariest thing I've ever been through.
Personally I feel a bit better except for the dryness in my mouth. It's really hard to eat anything. You never realized how important your saliva was in starting the digestive process until you don't have any.
Monday, March 30, 2020
Friday, March 27, 2020
The Corona Virus March 27, 2020
There are currently 102,419 reported case in the US and 1,610 deaths.
New York has 44,892 cases and 527 deaths
New Jersey has 8,825 cases and 108 deaths
California has 4,657 cases and 94 deaths
Washington has 3,700 cases and 174 deaths
Michigan has 3,657 cases and 92 deaths
I haven't done this in three days because I have been sick. Oh man have I been sick. Fever, stuffy nose, light headed and dizzyness when I walk around. I got so dizzy, so suddenly on Wednesday that I went down and I came close to going down a couple of other times.
If I take Tylenol my fever stays under control. If I stop it hovers around normal all day and then spikes to a 100.6% at night. Why does fever go up at night? Now it seems like whatever I eat causes an upset tummy and nausea.
I don't think I have the virus. At least I hope not. I made a mistake in not contacting my doctor. If I don't see significant improvement by Monday I'm calling. Right now I don't feel that bad other than some lingering nausea.
Well, at least now states are publishing negative test results. New Jersey has 8,825 positives and 16,547 negatives. That's 34.7% which is high. Many other states have a much lower percentage of positives. California has 18.2% and Washington has 6.9%. I'm not sure why the low numbers.
New York has 44,892 cases and 527 deaths
New Jersey has 8,825 cases and 108 deaths
California has 4,657 cases and 94 deaths
Washington has 3,700 cases and 174 deaths
Michigan has 3,657 cases and 92 deaths
I haven't done this in three days because I have been sick. Oh man have I been sick. Fever, stuffy nose, light headed and dizzyness when I walk around. I got so dizzy, so suddenly on Wednesday that I went down and I came close to going down a couple of other times.
If I take Tylenol my fever stays under control. If I stop it hovers around normal all day and then spikes to a 100.6% at night. Why does fever go up at night? Now it seems like whatever I eat causes an upset tummy and nausea.
I don't think I have the virus. At least I hope not. I made a mistake in not contacting my doctor. If I don't see significant improvement by Monday I'm calling. Right now I don't feel that bad other than some lingering nausea.
Well, at least now states are publishing negative test results. New Jersey has 8,825 positives and 16,547 negatives. That's 34.7% which is high. Many other states have a much lower percentage of positives. California has 18.2% and Washington has 6.9%. I'm not sure why the low numbers.
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Death by Trump
Donald Trump winning the 2016 election didn't really surprise me. On November 7th 2016 I made the following observations.
"As for the presidency, I don't like the numbers I see. I think Trump has the inside track and based upon my most recent analysis he wins by a ridiculously close 270-268."
"Every other analysis I've seen seems to disagree with me so here's hoping they're right and I'm wrong. But I have this really bad feeling that I'm not wrong."
"Also not out of the question would be Clinton winning the popular vote while Trump wins the electoral vote. I think the opposite is less likely."
The next night, after it became obvious that Trump was not only going to win but was going to win big, I went to bed and lay there contemplating my own mortality.
This is something I had never really done as deeply as I did that night. At the time I was worried the dumb fuck would get us into a nuclear war and that's still possible.
Never in a million years did I consider he was going to get me killed by a fucking virus.
I have COPD. I did have a minor cardiac event but that was 15 years and I've changed my lifestyle significantly since then. Still, being 71 with underlying conditions probably means if I catch this thing I'm done for and, to be honest, it sound like a terribly unpleasant way to go.
The prick in the White House seems intent on saving his economy, while pushing the blame for the virus on everyone but him, and thus being able to get re-elected.
Only a complete moron would fall for this slight of hand and shifting of the burden of guilt but "moron" is a pretty good description of a large part of the US population.
But I'm not going to give the son of a bitch the pleasure. I'm going to vote against his ass even if it means killing myself in the process.
"As for the presidency, I don't like the numbers I see. I think Trump has the inside track and based upon my most recent analysis he wins by a ridiculously close 270-268."
"Every other analysis I've seen seems to disagree with me so here's hoping they're right and I'm wrong. But I have this really bad feeling that I'm not wrong."
"Also not out of the question would be Clinton winning the popular vote while Trump wins the electoral vote. I think the opposite is less likely."
The next night, after it became obvious that Trump was not only going to win but was going to win big, I went to bed and lay there contemplating my own mortality.
This is something I had never really done as deeply as I did that night. At the time I was worried the dumb fuck would get us into a nuclear war and that's still possible.
Never in a million years did I consider he was going to get me killed by a fucking virus.
I have COPD. I did have a minor cardiac event but that was 15 years and I've changed my lifestyle significantly since then. Still, being 71 with underlying conditions probably means if I catch this thing I'm done for and, to be honest, it sound like a terribly unpleasant way to go.
The prick in the White House seems intent on saving his economy, while pushing the blame for the virus on everyone but him, and thus being able to get re-elected.
Only a complete moron would fall for this slight of hand and shifting of the burden of guilt but "moron" is a pretty good description of a large part of the US population.
But I'm not going to give the son of a bitch the pleasure. I'm going to vote against his ass even if it means killing myself in the process.
The Corona Virus March March 24, 2020
There are currently 53,461 reported case in the US and 698 deaths.
New York has 25,678 cases and 210 deaths
New Jersey has 3,675 cases and 44 deaths
California has 2,512 cases and 50 deaths
Washington has 2,221 cases and 111 deaths
Michigan has 1,795 cases and 24 deaths
Things need to be better put in context. More information needs to be consistently provided by the state governments.
1. Positive Cases (which almost all are providing)
2. Number of deaths (which almost all are providing)
3. Number of tests done (which very few are providing)
4. Current hospital bed occupancy (which very few are providing)
As incredible as it sounds the New Jersey health commissioner, Judith Persichilli, has admitted that she doesn't even know the last two numbers.
How can you not know? This sort of data is critical to understanding what adjustments, if any, need to be made.
Trump is now making noises about restoring the economy by Easter. The state are pretty much telling him to fuck off. If he pushes it he'll find out what the term "open rebellion" means.
I got my exercise bike and my groceries from ShopRite. Of course they arrived at the same time leading to some chaos but ultimately we worked it out.
ShopRite called me prior to delivery to discuss four items they didn't have. They were toilet paper, which didn't really surprise me, seeded rye bread, so we substituted unseeded rye, plain English muffins which I just dropped and a particular type of pretzel which we substituted another type by the same company.
I would say overall a successful venture. Hopefully it stays that way.
We put the bike together yesterday as well. It wasn't too bad as they supplied the necessary implements.
It's going to take some getting used to though. The pedals are a bit tricky to get your feet into and trying to ride with them upside down is only partially successful. I'll have to work on it.
The other problem is the angles are all different and in particular I've been having some issue with my shoulders because I'm more hunched over. I'll have to adjust the handle bars some more and take my time getting used to it with short sessions.
Not as successful a venture as the ShopRite order but hopefully it will improve over time.
New York has 25,678 cases and 210 deaths
New Jersey has 3,675 cases and 44 deaths
California has 2,512 cases and 50 deaths
Washington has 2,221 cases and 111 deaths
Michigan has 1,795 cases and 24 deaths
Things need to be better put in context. More information needs to be consistently provided by the state governments.
1. Positive Cases (which almost all are providing)
2. Number of deaths (which almost all are providing)
3. Number of tests done (which very few are providing)
4. Current hospital bed occupancy (which very few are providing)
As incredible as it sounds the New Jersey health commissioner, Judith Persichilli, has admitted that she doesn't even know the last two numbers.
How can you not know? This sort of data is critical to understanding what adjustments, if any, need to be made.
Trump is now making noises about restoring the economy by Easter. The state are pretty much telling him to fuck off. If he pushes it he'll find out what the term "open rebellion" means.
I got my exercise bike and my groceries from ShopRite. Of course they arrived at the same time leading to some chaos but ultimately we worked it out.
ShopRite called me prior to delivery to discuss four items they didn't have. They were toilet paper, which didn't really surprise me, seeded rye bread, so we substituted unseeded rye, plain English muffins which I just dropped and a particular type of pretzel which we substituted another type by the same company.
I would say overall a successful venture. Hopefully it stays that way.
We put the bike together yesterday as well. It wasn't too bad as they supplied the necessary implements.
It's going to take some getting used to though. The pedals are a bit tricky to get your feet into and trying to ride with them upside down is only partially successful. I'll have to work on it.
The other problem is the angles are all different and in particular I've been having some issue with my shoulders because I'm more hunched over. I'll have to adjust the handle bars some more and take my time getting used to it with short sessions.
Not as successful a venture as the ShopRite order but hopefully it will improve over time.
Sunday, March 22, 2020
The Corona Virus March 22, 2020
There are currently 33,022 reported case in the US and 416 deaths.
New York has 15,793 cases and 117 deaths
Washington has 1,996 cases and 95 deaths
New Jersey has 1,914 cases and 20 deaths
California has 1,642 cases and 30 deaths
Illinois has 1,049 cases and 9 deaths
I'm not sure what to make of the New York numbers as they have essentially stopped testing except for health care workers and those who are hospitalized.
New Jersey is still testing fairly aggressively and expects to open up at least two and possibly three more drive through tests stations. The issue as far as I can tell is the availability of test kits. I don't have any information on testing capacity.
There are two steps to this process. The first is to collect a sample which doesn't sound very pleasant to be honest with you since they swap both down your throat, which doesn't sound too bad, and down your nose which reminds me of the time a doctor had to reset my broken nose. To be honest the nose swab sound a tad uncomfortable.
Then they send it to a lab which has access to a test kit. The test kits are apparently the big bottle neck. Supposedly more tests could be run if more kits were available. It seems to take about four or five days to get the results.
What I would like to know is where are these fast turnaround tests people like Hoffman La Roche were talking about that could do a thousand tests a day?
UPS says they're delivering my exercise bike tomorrow and it weighs like 79 pounds. Damn, that's more than I thought. To be honest this is shaping up to be one of my poorer ideas. I just hope it doesn't turn into a complete disaster.
ShopRite is also supposed to deliver my first food order tomorrow. I noticed they said they weren't doing any substitutions which means if they don't have exactly what you ordered I suppose you're not getting it.
I ordered 42 items. Let's see how many I actually get.
In the latest I hear that several start-up companies are offering home corona virus tests that you can order on line. Given the current loosened FDA restrictions these tests have been mainly "green lighted" but not approved in the conventional sense of FDA approval.
Sounds like a proceed at your own risk sort of situation.
New York has 15,793 cases and 117 deaths
Washington has 1,996 cases and 95 deaths
New Jersey has 1,914 cases and 20 deaths
California has 1,642 cases and 30 deaths
Illinois has 1,049 cases and 9 deaths
I'm not sure what to make of the New York numbers as they have essentially stopped testing except for health care workers and those who are hospitalized.
New Jersey is still testing fairly aggressively and expects to open up at least two and possibly three more drive through tests stations. The issue as far as I can tell is the availability of test kits. I don't have any information on testing capacity.
There are two steps to this process. The first is to collect a sample which doesn't sound very pleasant to be honest with you since they swap both down your throat, which doesn't sound too bad, and down your nose which reminds me of the time a doctor had to reset my broken nose. To be honest the nose swab sound a tad uncomfortable.
Then they send it to a lab which has access to a test kit. The test kits are apparently the big bottle neck. Supposedly more tests could be run if more kits were available. It seems to take about four or five days to get the results.
What I would like to know is where are these fast turnaround tests people like Hoffman La Roche were talking about that could do a thousand tests a day?
UPS says they're delivering my exercise bike tomorrow and it weighs like 79 pounds. Damn, that's more than I thought. To be honest this is shaping up to be one of my poorer ideas. I just hope it doesn't turn into a complete disaster.
ShopRite is also supposed to deliver my first food order tomorrow. I noticed they said they weren't doing any substitutions which means if they don't have exactly what you ordered I suppose you're not getting it.
I ordered 42 items. Let's see how many I actually get.
In the latest I hear that several start-up companies are offering home corona virus tests that you can order on line. Given the current loosened FDA restrictions these tests have been mainly "green lighted" but not approved in the conventional sense of FDA approval.
Sounds like a proceed at your own risk sort of situation.
Saturday, March 21, 2020
The Corona Virus March 21, 2020
There are currently 26.042 reported cases in the US and 317 reported deaths. That's an increase of 6,974 cases and 77 deaths.
New York has 11,727 cases and 60 deaths.
Washington has 1,793 cases and 94 deaths.
California has 1,394 cases and 25 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 1,327 cases and 16 deaths.
I'm not sure how meaningful these numbers are any more. New York has reportedly stopped general testing and is reserving tests for health care workers and people in the hospital. Everyone else, except workers in essential businesses, has been told to stay home. This is effectively a admission that attempting to constrain the virus is hopeless.
Governor Murphy in New Jersey issued a similar order but the list of "essential businesses" is a long one.
Businesses offering essential services will remain open, including:
Restaurants, liquor stores and bars providing take out may also remain open. I find it interesting that liquor stores are considered an essential business.
What they really need to do is test individuals working in these "essential businesses." A lot of folks, including myself, are opting for grocery delivery service. What happens if the guy delivering the groceries is infected?
Most people pay for gas with a charge card. When you hand your card to the gas station guy and he hands it back to you, it's like shaking hands with everyone who's bought gas that day. I'd rather pump my own thank you very much.
Based upon a model run by Rutgers Camden New Jersey could be anywhere from 100,000 to 300,000 hospital beds short at the peak of the epidemic. Even if you could create that many beds, where would you get the health care staff?
Of course modeling results are only as good as the information you put into the model. The Rutgers folks had a "Minimal Action," "Moderate Action" and "Strong Action" results as related to social distancing but the report summary I saw didn't provide the model inputs in detail.
If they are even half right things are going to get really nasty.
New York has 11,727 cases and 60 deaths.
Washington has 1,793 cases and 94 deaths.
California has 1,394 cases and 25 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 1,327 cases and 16 deaths.
I'm not sure how meaningful these numbers are any more. New York has reportedly stopped general testing and is reserving tests for health care workers and people in the hospital. Everyone else, except workers in essential businesses, has been told to stay home. This is effectively a admission that attempting to constrain the virus is hopeless.
Governor Murphy in New Jersey issued a similar order but the list of "essential businesses" is a long one.
Businesses offering essential services will remain open, including:
- Hospitals, healthcare facilities and stores within the facilities
- Grocery stores and liquor stores
- Farmer's markets and farms that sell directly to customers
- Food banks
- Pharmacies
- Medical supply stores
- Gas stations and convenience stores
- Banks and other financial institutions
- Pet supply stores
- Hardware and home improvement stores
- Laundromats and dry-cleaning services
- Car dealerships, but only for auto maintenance and repair and auto mechanics
- Mail and delivery stores
- Stores that principally sell supplies for children under five years old
- Physical therapy offices
Restaurants, liquor stores and bars providing take out may also remain open. I find it interesting that liquor stores are considered an essential business.
What they really need to do is test individuals working in these "essential businesses." A lot of folks, including myself, are opting for grocery delivery service. What happens if the guy delivering the groceries is infected?
Most people pay for gas with a charge card. When you hand your card to the gas station guy and he hands it back to you, it's like shaking hands with everyone who's bought gas that day. I'd rather pump my own thank you very much.
Based upon a model run by Rutgers Camden New Jersey could be anywhere from 100,000 to 300,000 hospital beds short at the peak of the epidemic. Even if you could create that many beds, where would you get the health care staff?
Of course modeling results are only as good as the information you put into the model. The Rutgers folks had a "Minimal Action," "Moderate Action" and "Strong Action" results as related to social distancing but the report summary I saw didn't provide the model inputs in detail.
If they are even half right things are going to get really nasty.
Friday, March 20, 2020
The Corona Virus March 20, 2020
There are currently 19,068 reported cases in the US and 240 reported deaths. That's an increase of 5,660 cases and 59 deaths.
New York has 8,310 cases and 42 deaths.
Washington has 1,524 cases and 83 deaths.
California has 1,169 cases and 20 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 890 cases and 11 deaths.
The finally opened the testing center at Bergen Community College today and it was utter bedlam. There were hundreds of cars lined up and being screened for the requirements to be testes, a cough and temperature of at least 99.6 degrees.
I give the folks that were staffing that place, nurses, technicians, police, national guard, all the credit in the world.
Elsewhere New York and California have increased restrictions on travel to essential personnel only. Illinois is expected to follow. Governor Murphy says he's going to "tighten the screws" in New Jersey but hasn't clarified exactly what that means.
The publicity around the packed Florida beaches apparently got to Governor DeSantis and he shut them all down saying "The Party is Over."
I suppose it is possible to embarrass a Republican into doing the right thing. Who'd have thunk it?
The director of the National Institute of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, says there may be as many as 70,000 reported cases by next Friday but would actually be a good thing because it wouldn't mean that the outbreak has exploded but rather that we're finally catching up on the test front.
In the meantime Trump and his Fox News allies are denying they ever said things that we have on video tape that they said.
But it doesn't matter because the GOP under 80 IQ trailer park base is going to believe what they're told. They'll probably claim the video has been faked.
Not being in the middle of this and not being able to DO SOMETHING is driving me crazy. I suppose I'll just have to wash my hands, practice social distancing and stay in my house.
New York has 8,310 cases and 42 deaths.
Washington has 1,524 cases and 83 deaths.
California has 1,169 cases and 20 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 890 cases and 11 deaths.
The finally opened the testing center at Bergen Community College today and it was utter bedlam. There were hundreds of cars lined up and being screened for the requirements to be testes, a cough and temperature of at least 99.6 degrees.
I give the folks that were staffing that place, nurses, technicians, police, national guard, all the credit in the world.
Elsewhere New York and California have increased restrictions on travel to essential personnel only. Illinois is expected to follow. Governor Murphy says he's going to "tighten the screws" in New Jersey but hasn't clarified exactly what that means.
The publicity around the packed Florida beaches apparently got to Governor DeSantis and he shut them all down saying "The Party is Over."
I suppose it is possible to embarrass a Republican into doing the right thing. Who'd have thunk it?
The director of the National Institute of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, says there may be as many as 70,000 reported cases by next Friday but would actually be a good thing because it wouldn't mean that the outbreak has exploded but rather that we're finally catching up on the test front.
In the meantime Trump and his Fox News allies are denying they ever said things that we have on video tape that they said.
But it doesn't matter because the GOP under 80 IQ trailer park base is going to believe what they're told. They'll probably claim the video has been faked.
Not being in the middle of this and not being able to DO SOMETHING is driving me crazy. I suppose I'll just have to wash my hands, practice social distancing and stay in my house.
Thursday, March 19, 2020
The Corona Virus March 19, 2020
The numbers are really spiking as widespread testing takes hold. This thing may just be completely out of control despite all of the suppression being attempted.
There are currently 13,408 reported cases in the US and 181 reported deaths. That's an increase of 4,438 cases and 36 deaths.
New York has 5,366 cases and 22 deaths.
Washington has 1,225 cases and 69 deaths.
California has 952 cases and 18 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 742 cases and 9 deaths.
The New Jersey numbers are increasing faster than anywhere but New York and at the current rate may pass California and Washington.
There isn't much else to say. I've been in my house essentially six days straight. OK, I cheated on Sunday and got a dozen bagels but that's been it.
We're ordering food online for delivery from local supermarkets. The first delivery is supposed to arrive Monday from ShopRite. I say "supposed to arrive" because I really don't know what to expect. If a delivery arrives I don't know if it will be complete.
Our next delivery is supposed to be next Sunday from Stop & Shop. The same caveats and concerns apply.
If it turns out the delivery services on unreliable then we're going to have to venture out to the supermarket or spend lots of shekels getting restaurant delivery. It's not clear to me which is the better option.
In the meantime there are pictures of packed Florida beaches. The governor there has refused to close them and spring break types don't seem to be concerned about flocking to them despite dire warnings.
We're about to pay a steep price because of (1) the lack of testing fuck-up in Washington and (2) far too many people just not taking this seriously enough.
There are currently 13,408 reported cases in the US and 181 reported deaths. That's an increase of 4,438 cases and 36 deaths.
New York has 5,366 cases and 22 deaths.
Washington has 1,225 cases and 69 deaths.
California has 952 cases and 18 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 742 cases and 9 deaths.
The New Jersey numbers are increasing faster than anywhere but New York and at the current rate may pass California and Washington.
There isn't much else to say. I've been in my house essentially six days straight. OK, I cheated on Sunday and got a dozen bagels but that's been it.
We're ordering food online for delivery from local supermarkets. The first delivery is supposed to arrive Monday from ShopRite. I say "supposed to arrive" because I really don't know what to expect. If a delivery arrives I don't know if it will be complete.
Our next delivery is supposed to be next Sunday from Stop & Shop. The same caveats and concerns apply.
If it turns out the delivery services on unreliable then we're going to have to venture out to the supermarket or spend lots of shekels getting restaurant delivery. It's not clear to me which is the better option.
In the meantime there are pictures of packed Florida beaches. The governor there has refused to close them and spring break types don't seem to be concerned about flocking to them despite dire warnings.
We're about to pay a steep price because of (1) the lack of testing fuck-up in Washington and (2) far too many people just not taking this seriously enough.
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
It Takes a Leader and We Ain't Got One
It all begins with a leader. We need a true leader to get us out of this corona virus mess. Someone who can effectively rally the troops and get them to do what needs to be done. I don’t see anyone at the national or state level that has the kind of leadership ability that we need right now.
Alexander made the point
I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion.
What I see all around is a lot of hesitation, obfuscation and just plain inability to make the hard decisions and we all know that will get people killed.
New York and New Jersey are perfect examples.
Bergen County is the hardest hit county in New Jersey. The Bergen County Commissioner “stepped up” and ordered all non-essential business, including the malls, closed. Less than eight hours later he backed down after an uproar that his “direction was confusing.” Less than 24 hours after that Governor issued the exact same directive for the entire state but almost two days were lost.
DeBlasio in New York City dug in his heels and refused to close the schools despite the fact it meant teachers had to travel in from Westchester (which was the biggest epicenter at the time), Long Island, New Jersey and Connecticut. So of course those teachers had the opportunity to bring the virus home with them.
When he finally got around to closing the schools, or, more accurately, was forced to do so based upon an agreement between the governors of New York, Connecticut and New Jersey, he swung the other way and declared people should prepare for a “shelter in place” order within 48 hours only to be overruled by Governor Cuomo.
Add the clown in the White House into this mix and it would be hysterical if it was fiction but sort of infuriating because it’s reality.
It's the Keystone Cops trying to lead us through the most difficult situation in recent memory.
And, no, I'm not looking for a totalitarian Hitler like figure. I would take a Dwight D, Eisenhower, a John Kennedy or a Robert Kennedy but I ain't got squat.
The Corona Virus March 18, 2020
Things are really spiraling out of control in New York and especially in the city. I said that DeBlasio was making a really big mistake by keeping the schools open and I'm sure that has something to do with the terrible numbers coming out of New York.
Now he wants to do a shutdown in place but Cuomo isn't thrilled about that idea. I don't know why. It sounds like a good way to go to me.
There are currently 8,970 reported cases in the US and 145 reported deaths. That's an increase of 2,644 cases and 39 deaths.
New York has 3,037 cases and 21 deaths.
Washington has 1,075 cases and 66 deaths.
California has 820 cases and 14 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 427 cases and 5 deaths.
You've heard of the thin red line right? That's the point where you figure you're dead already so it doesn't matter any more.
New York and New Jersey are expanding critical care and hospital capacity (New Jersey is reopening several closed hospitals). Both have requested help from the Army Corp of Engineers to create even more additional capacity with a focus on critical care units.
Of course "asking for help" from Washington and actually getting it are two different things. I also think things have gone farther "faster" than in Europe or at least I hope they have. It's difficult to really tell.
I have to put "faster" in quotes because everything seems to be moving at a glacial pace while all of civilization seems like it's crashing down on our heads.
The graphs are really ugly but to put things in perspective. If you took all of the reported cases in the US and overlayed them onto the worst hit county in New Jersey, Bergen County, that comes out to 0.96% of the population. Unfortunately the number is rapidly climbing.
I have to keep telling myself things like that because I live in Bergen County and I'll never see 70 again.
Of course the problem with exponential curves is everything looks OK until suddenly it doesn't.
Now he wants to do a shutdown in place but Cuomo isn't thrilled about that idea. I don't know why. It sounds like a good way to go to me.
There are currently 8,970 reported cases in the US and 145 reported deaths. That's an increase of 2,644 cases and 39 deaths.
New York has 3,037 cases and 21 deaths.
Washington has 1,075 cases and 66 deaths.
California has 820 cases and 14 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 427 cases and 5 deaths.
You've heard of the thin red line right? That's the point where you figure you're dead already so it doesn't matter any more.
New York and New Jersey are expanding critical care and hospital capacity (New Jersey is reopening several closed hospitals). Both have requested help from the Army Corp of Engineers to create even more additional capacity with a focus on critical care units.
Of course "asking for help" from Washington and actually getting it are two different things. I also think things have gone farther "faster" than in Europe or at least I hope they have. It's difficult to really tell.
I have to put "faster" in quotes because everything seems to be moving at a glacial pace while all of civilization seems like it's crashing down on our heads.
The graphs are really ugly but to put things in perspective. If you took all of the reported cases in the US and overlayed them onto the worst hit county in New Jersey, Bergen County, that comes out to 0.96% of the population. Unfortunately the number is rapidly climbing.
I have to keep telling myself things like that because I live in Bergen County and I'll never see 70 again.
Of course the problem with exponential curves is everything looks OK until suddenly it doesn't.
The Imperial College Report
The Imperial College in the United Kingdom has issued a "not for public release" report on the corona virus which of course has been leaked to the public. It has a lot of disturbing conclusions.
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely.
Both of these strategies relate to the rate of reproduction number R. Essentially mitigation looks to lower R without necessarily getting it below 1.
Suppression looks to bring R below 1 which would result in an eventual decrease in the number of cases over time.
We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
I think everyone with more than half a brain has pretty much come to that conclusion as well.
We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures,
So yes, we are well on the way to implementing a suppression strategy. How far we’ll have to go remains to be seen.
Overall, our results suggest that population-wide social distancing applied to the population as a whole would have the largest impact; and in combination with other interventions – notably home isolation of cases and school and university closure – has the potential to suppress transmission below the threshold of R=1 required to rapidly reduce case incidence.
This is basically what New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are trying but it’s way to early to see how effective it will be. Over the last three days New Jersey has announced 80, 89 and 162 new cases as testing has ramped up.
They’re putting 18 months on the table as the time frame that suppression techniques will need to be in place since that’s probably the best time frame that we can hope to have a vaccine.
The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package –or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.
The other question is how long will it take for the initial actions to be effective? There isn’t a lot of good news there either.
... it is difficult to be definitive about the likely initial duration of measures which will be required, except that it will be several months.
And then a reiteration of the 18 month window and a suggestion for triggered adaptation rather than arbitrary fixed durations.
To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more. Adaptive hospital surveillance-based triggers for switching on and off population-wide social distancing and school closure offer greater robustness to uncertainty than fixed duration interventions and can be adapted for regional use
Yeah, lots of luck organizing that without a ridiculously strong and competent central authority. So we're pretty much fucked. Not only can you bid farewell to hockey and basketball but I wouldn't hold out much hope for baseball or football either.
I Could Shoot Someone on 5th Avenue
I'm utterly shocked that despite the stock market collapse, screwing the pooch on virus preparation and shortly about to usher in a nasty recession, that Trump's poll numbers haven't suffered one bit.
Whatever Trump says his faithful nod their heads in agreement and cheer. Even when the evidence of their own eyes should tell them he's lying right to their faces; they just don't seem to get it.
The timeline of statements by Trump on the virus are incredible. If I hadn't heard them myself.
Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control.”
Jan. 24: "China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!" Jan. 29: “Just received a briefing on the Coronavirus in China from all of our GREAT agencies, who are also working closely with China. We will continue to monitor the ongoing developments. We have the best experts anywhere in the world, and they are on top of it 24/7!”
Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for it. So that I can assure you.”
Feb. 2: “Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China. … We can’t have thousands of people coming in who may have this problem, the coronavirus. So we’re gonna see what happens, but we did shut it down, yes.”
Feb. 7: “Nothing is easy, but [Chinese President Xi Jinping] … will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone.”
Feb. 10: “I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine.” Feb. 14: “We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”
Feb. 19: “I think it’s going to work out fine. I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus. So let’s see what happens, but I think it’s going to work out fine.”
Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
Feb. 25: “You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are … getting better. They’re all getting better. … As far as what we’re doing with the new virus, I think that we’re doing a great job.”
Feb. 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus, including the very early closing of our borders to certain areas of the world.” Feb. 26: “Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done."
Feb. 26:
Q: This is spreading — or is going to spread, maybe, within communities. That’s the expectation.
A: "It may. It may."
Q: Does that worry you?
A: "No. ... No, because we’re ready for it. It is what it is. We’re ready for it. We’re really prepared. ... We hope it doesn’t spread. There’s a chance that it won’t spread too, and there’s a chance that it will, and then it’s a question of at what level."
Feb. 27: “Only a very small number in U.S., China numbers look to be going down. All countries working well together!”
Feb. 28: “I think it’s really going well. We did something very fortunate: we closed up to certain areas of the world very, very early — far earlier than we were supposed to. I took a lot of heat for doing it. It turned out to be the right move, and we only have 15 people and they are getting better, and hopefully they’re all better. There’s one who is quite sick, but maybe he’s gonna be fine. … We’re prepared for the worst, but we think we’re going to be very fortunate."
Feb. 28: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
Feb. 29: “We’re the number-one travel destination anywhere in the world, yet we have far fewer cases of the disease than even countries with much less travel or a much smaller population.”
March 4: “Some people will have this at a very light level and won’t even go to a doctor or hospital, and they’ll get better. There are many people like that.”
March 5: “With approximately 100,000 CoronaVirus cases worldwide, and 3,280 deaths, the United States, because of quick action on closing our borders, has, as of now, only 129 cases (40 Americans brought in) and 11 deaths.” March 6: “We did an interview on Fox last night, a town hall. I think it was very good. And I said, ‘Calm. You have to be calm. It’ll go away.' ” March 7: “It came out of China, and we heard about it. And made a good move: We closed it down; we stopped it. Otherwise — the head of CDC said last night that you would have thousands of more problems if we didn’t shut it down very early. That was a very early shutdown, which is something we got right."
March 8: Retweets a story about Surgeon General Jerome Adams playing down the risk of coronavirus for Trump personally.
March 9: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”
March 10: “And it hit the world. And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” March 11: “I think we’re going to get through it very well.”
March 12: “It’s going to go away. ... The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you’re seeing coming out of other countries, it’s pretty amazing when you think of it.”
March 13: Says Food and Drug Administration “will bring, additionally, 1.4 million tests on board next week and 5 million within a month. I doubt we’ll need anywhere near that.” March 14: “We’re using the full power of the federal government to defeat the virus, and that’s what we’ve been doing.” Also retweeted supporter Candace Owens who cited “good news” on coronavirus, including that, “Italy is hit hard, experts say, because they have the oldest population in Europe (average age of those that have died is 81)."
March 15: “This is a very contagious virus. It’s incredible. But it’s something that we have tremendous control over.”
March 16: “If you’re talking about the virus, no, that’s not under control for any place in the world. ... I was talking about what we’re doing is under control, but I’m not talking about the virus.”
March 17: “We’re going to win. And I think we’re going to win faster than people think -- I hope.”
Jesus H. fucking Christ. This has got to be the absolute worst person to have in charge in this sort of situation. He lives in a bubble of self adulating delusion.
Plus, we still don't have enough testing going on so we don't even really know the full extent of this thing.
He has completely blown it yet I will bet dollars to donuts that his fans will never understand or believe how badly he has fucked up. Even now, he seems more concerned about the economic fallout than the health risks. Yes, the economy is important but it doesn't do the dead much good.
Whatever Trump says his faithful nod their heads in agreement and cheer. Even when the evidence of their own eyes should tell them he's lying right to their faces; they just don't seem to get it.
The timeline of statements by Trump on the virus are incredible. If I hadn't heard them myself.
Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control.”
Jan. 24: "China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!" Jan. 29: “Just received a briefing on the Coronavirus in China from all of our GREAT agencies, who are also working closely with China. We will continue to monitor the ongoing developments. We have the best experts anywhere in the world, and they are on top of it 24/7!”
Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for it. So that I can assure you.”
Feb. 2: “Well, we pretty much shut it down coming in from China. … We can’t have thousands of people coming in who may have this problem, the coronavirus. So we’re gonna see what happens, but we did shut it down, yes.”
Feb. 7: “Nothing is easy, but [Chinese President Xi Jinping] … will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone.”
Feb. 10: “I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine.” Feb. 14: “We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it. It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”
Feb. 19: “I think it’s going to work out fine. I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative effect on that and that type of a virus. So let’s see what happens, but I think it’s going to work out fine.”
Feb. 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. … Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
Feb. 25: “You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country. We have very few people with it, and the people that have it are … getting better. They’re all getting better. … As far as what we’re doing with the new virus, I think that we’re doing a great job.”
Feb. 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus, including the very early closing of our borders to certain areas of the world.” Feb. 26: “Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done."
Feb. 26:
Q: This is spreading — or is going to spread, maybe, within communities. That’s the expectation.
A: "It may. It may."
Q: Does that worry you?
A: "No. ... No, because we’re ready for it. It is what it is. We’re ready for it. We’re really prepared. ... We hope it doesn’t spread. There’s a chance that it won’t spread too, and there’s a chance that it will, and then it’s a question of at what level."
Feb. 27: “Only a very small number in U.S., China numbers look to be going down. All countries working well together!”
Feb. 28: “I think it’s really going well. We did something very fortunate: we closed up to certain areas of the world very, very early — far earlier than we were supposed to. I took a lot of heat for doing it. It turned out to be the right move, and we only have 15 people and they are getting better, and hopefully they’re all better. There’s one who is quite sick, but maybe he’s gonna be fine. … We’re prepared for the worst, but we think we’re going to be very fortunate."
Feb. 28: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
Feb. 29: “We’re the number-one travel destination anywhere in the world, yet we have far fewer cases of the disease than even countries with much less travel or a much smaller population.”
March 4: “Some people will have this at a very light level and won’t even go to a doctor or hospital, and they’ll get better. There are many people like that.”
March 5: “With approximately 100,000 CoronaVirus cases worldwide, and 3,280 deaths, the United States, because of quick action on closing our borders, has, as of now, only 129 cases (40 Americans brought in) and 11 deaths.” March 6: “We did an interview on Fox last night, a town hall. I think it was very good. And I said, ‘Calm. You have to be calm. It’ll go away.' ” March 7: “It came out of China, and we heard about it. And made a good move: We closed it down; we stopped it. Otherwise — the head of CDC said last night that you would have thousands of more problems if we didn’t shut it down very early. That was a very early shutdown, which is something we got right."
March 8: Retweets a story about Surgeon General Jerome Adams playing down the risk of coronavirus for Trump personally.
March 9: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!”
March 10: “And it hit the world. And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” March 11: “I think we’re going to get through it very well.”
March 12: “It’s going to go away. ... The United States, because of what I did and what the administration did with China, we have 32 deaths at this point … when you look at the kind of numbers that you’re seeing coming out of other countries, it’s pretty amazing when you think of it.”
March 13: Says Food and Drug Administration “will bring, additionally, 1.4 million tests on board next week and 5 million within a month. I doubt we’ll need anywhere near that.” March 14: “We’re using the full power of the federal government to defeat the virus, and that’s what we’ve been doing.” Also retweeted supporter Candace Owens who cited “good news” on coronavirus, including that, “Italy is hit hard, experts say, because they have the oldest population in Europe (average age of those that have died is 81)."
March 15: “This is a very contagious virus. It’s incredible. But it’s something that we have tremendous control over.”
March 16: “If you’re talking about the virus, no, that’s not under control for any place in the world. ... I was talking about what we’re doing is under control, but I’m not talking about the virus.”
March 17: “We’re going to win. And I think we’re going to win faster than people think -- I hope.”
Jesus H. fucking Christ. This has got to be the absolute worst person to have in charge in this sort of situation. He lives in a bubble of self adulating delusion.
Plus, we still don't have enough testing going on so we don't even really know the full extent of this thing.
He has completely blown it yet I will bet dollars to donuts that his fans will never understand or believe how badly he has fucked up. Even now, he seems more concerned about the economic fallout than the health risks. Yes, the economy is important but it doesn't do the dead much good.
Biden as the Democratic Nominee
There are a few other things going on besides the corona virus although I have to admit they seem sort of trivial next to the possibility of approaching eternity.
With victories tonight in Illinois and Florida I don't see how Biden doesn't bring home the nomination.
Next up is who gets the VP nod?
Biden has hinted broadly that it will be a woman which I think is a good idea. A black woman from the south would probably be best.
Think Stacy Abrams from Georgia or Val Demings from Florida. Kamala Harris wouldn't surprise me either.
With victories tonight in Illinois and Florida I don't see how Biden doesn't bring home the nomination.
Next up is who gets the VP nod?
Biden has hinted broadly that it will be a woman which I think is a good idea. A black woman from the south would probably be best.
Think Stacy Abrams from Georgia or Val Demings from Florida. Kamala Harris wouldn't surprise me either.
Tuesday, March 17, 2020
The Corona Virus March 17, 2020
There are currently 6,326 reported cases in the US and 106 reported deaths. That's an increase of 2,553 cases and 37 deaths over the course of about a day and a half.
New York has 1,706 cases and 13 deaths.
Washington has 1,014 cases and 53 deaths.
California has 698 cases and 12 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 267 cases and 3 deaths.
The governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have gotten together (what a concept!) and effectively shut down all non-essential businesses and instituted a "voluntary" curfew from 8 PM to 5 AM. It's a funny kind of voluntary since they're making it very plain if you're caught on the street without a good reason they're going to be taking a dim view of that.
Murphy has shut down all the malls and even the casinos until further notice.
Things are clearly a bit out of control in the tri-state area and both Cuomo and Murphy have requested help from the Army Corp of Engineers to begin converting areas, including currently closed hospitals, into overflow care units in order to free up space in the main hospitals for virus victims.
Even if they manage to increase capacity significantly you can't just clone doctors and nurses.
New York appears to have taken down the area on it's website where they were listing known cases by county. I'm not sure if that means they're going to start playing things close to the vest or they just don't want to bother updating it when no matter what they do it's probably going to be inaccurate.
Even Trump has changed his tune and appears to be taking this seriously at last. Like clockwork the GOP propaganda arm, Fox News, stopped calling the virus some sort of hoax and began saying how serious things are.
Hopefully the morons who have been ignoring all of the instructions about "social distancing" and "hygiene" will start listening.
I'm trapped in my house with my wife and two daughters. Luckily there's enough room to remain relatively separate because if there wasn't it wouldn't take long for us to get on each others nerves.
I have no idea where this is going. I set up home deliveries of groceries. Whether I'll actually get anything or not is anyone's guess.
No one seems to know how much testing is actually being done or if they know they're not saying. They keep talking about testing facilities at Bergen Community College and PNC Arts Center but so far it's only talk.
Mike Pence indicated on the weekend that by the end of the week a million test kits would be distributed. If that's in progress I haven't heard anything about it.
The Stock Market is pretty much in the trash can for the foreseeable future and the politicians seem to be more focused on the economic aspects of this mess than the health ones.
They're considering giving $1,000 cash to every adult as a stimulus. That would be very nice but it doesn't do me any good if I'm dead or stuck in my house.
New York has 1,706 cases and 13 deaths.
Washington has 1,014 cases and 53 deaths.
California has 698 cases and 12 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 267 cases and 3 deaths.
The governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have gotten together (what a concept!) and effectively shut down all non-essential businesses and instituted a "voluntary" curfew from 8 PM to 5 AM. It's a funny kind of voluntary since they're making it very plain if you're caught on the street without a good reason they're going to be taking a dim view of that.
Murphy has shut down all the malls and even the casinos until further notice.
Things are clearly a bit out of control in the tri-state area and both Cuomo and Murphy have requested help from the Army Corp of Engineers to begin converting areas, including currently closed hospitals, into overflow care units in order to free up space in the main hospitals for virus victims.
Even if they manage to increase capacity significantly you can't just clone doctors and nurses.
New York appears to have taken down the area on it's website where they were listing known cases by county. I'm not sure if that means they're going to start playing things close to the vest or they just don't want to bother updating it when no matter what they do it's probably going to be inaccurate.
Even Trump has changed his tune and appears to be taking this seriously at last. Like clockwork the GOP propaganda arm, Fox News, stopped calling the virus some sort of hoax and began saying how serious things are.
Hopefully the morons who have been ignoring all of the instructions about "social distancing" and "hygiene" will start listening.
I'm trapped in my house with my wife and two daughters. Luckily there's enough room to remain relatively separate because if there wasn't it wouldn't take long for us to get on each others nerves.
I have no idea where this is going. I set up home deliveries of groceries. Whether I'll actually get anything or not is anyone's guess.
No one seems to know how much testing is actually being done or if they know they're not saying. They keep talking about testing facilities at Bergen Community College and PNC Arts Center but so far it's only talk.
Mike Pence indicated on the weekend that by the end of the week a million test kits would be distributed. If that's in progress I haven't heard anything about it.
The Stock Market is pretty much in the trash can for the foreseeable future and the politicians seem to be more focused on the economic aspects of this mess than the health ones.
They're considering giving $1,000 cash to every adult as a stimulus. That would be very nice but it doesn't do me any good if I'm dead or stuck in my house.
Sunday, March 15, 2020
The Corona Virus March 15, 2020
There are currently 3,773 reported cases in the US and 69 reported deaths. That's an increase of 803 cases and 11 deaths.
Washington has 769 cases and 42 deaths.
New York has 746 cases and 6 deaths.
California has 431 cases and 6 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 108 cases and 2 deaths.
New York City is finally shutting down its school system. Most towns in Northern New Jersey are going into a sort of shutdown with more and more restrictions. So far the virus appears unimpressed.
One big question relates to the amount of testing occurring. It's clearly not as available as people would like. Mike Pence has promised over a million test kits distributed next week.
That would be good but given this administration hasn't done anything right yet you'll excuse me if I take a wait an see attitude.
What isn't clear about the case numbers is are they reasonably accurate or way under due to a testing ceiling? I'm pretty sure they're limited by a testing ceiling I just don't know by how much.
In the meantime Republicans continue to make light of the situation and their adoring adherents are listening to them. This is allowing things to spiral out of control.
I went out for a dozen bagels this morning and the bagel would normally have all of its tables full. They were all empty. I wasn't brave enough to try the supermarket. I'll try it either tomorrow or Tuesday.
My itchy throat seems to have subsided so that's good.
Washington has 769 cases and 42 deaths.
New York has 746 cases and 6 deaths.
California has 431 cases and 6 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 108 cases and 2 deaths.
New York City is finally shutting down its school system. Most towns in Northern New Jersey are going into a sort of shutdown with more and more restrictions. So far the virus appears unimpressed.
One big question relates to the amount of testing occurring. It's clearly not as available as people would like. Mike Pence has promised over a million test kits distributed next week.
That would be good but given this administration hasn't done anything right yet you'll excuse me if I take a wait an see attitude.
What isn't clear about the case numbers is are they reasonably accurate or way under due to a testing ceiling? I'm pretty sure they're limited by a testing ceiling I just don't know by how much.
In the meantime Republicans continue to make light of the situation and their adoring adherents are listening to them. This is allowing things to spiral out of control.
I went out for a dozen bagels this morning and the bagel would normally have all of its tables full. They were all empty. I wasn't brave enough to try the supermarket. I'll try it either tomorrow or Tuesday.
My itchy throat seems to have subsided so that's good.
Saturday, March 14, 2020
The Corona Virus March 14, 2020
There are currently 2,970 reported cases in the US and 58 reported deaths. That's an increase of 681 cases and 8 deaths. I've changed the nomenclature to "reported" since apparently I'm getting a mix of "presumed positive" and "confirmed positive" on the website I'm monitoring but it seems that a very high percentage of "presumed" become "confirmed."
Washington has 642 cases and 40 deaths.
New York has 613 cases and 2 deaths.
California has 368 cases and 5 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 69 cases and 2 deaths.
Things are slowly but surely shutting down. The problem is these are all local decisions. There is little or no direction from the top either at the federal or state levels other than the basic guidance that's been around for weeks.
The Mayor of Teaneck, which appears to be something of an epicenter here in Bergen County, has asked everyone to self quarantine. How many will listen is anyone's guess.
My gym has closed down so I've ordered an indoor exercise bike. It should be here in about a week. That cursing you hear will be me trying to put it together.
Mayor DeBlasio is still insisting on keeping the schools in the city open. I think this a big mistake which is going to cause problems all across the tri-state area.
The test numbers are beginning to go up which may partially explain the rising numbers but that remains to be seen.
Northern Italy is in a shutdown mode. France and Spain are in partial shutdown modes. I suspect New York City needs to do something similar.
In the meantime it's allergy season so I've got itchy eyes and a slight runny nose. I keep hoping that's not a sore throat that I feel coming on or things could get sticky.
Washington has 642 cases and 40 deaths.
New York has 613 cases and 2 deaths.
California has 368 cases and 5 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 69 cases and 2 deaths.
Things are slowly but surely shutting down. The problem is these are all local decisions. There is little or no direction from the top either at the federal or state levels other than the basic guidance that's been around for weeks.
The Mayor of Teaneck, which appears to be something of an epicenter here in Bergen County, has asked everyone to self quarantine. How many will listen is anyone's guess.
My gym has closed down so I've ordered an indoor exercise bike. It should be here in about a week. That cursing you hear will be me trying to put it together.
Mayor DeBlasio is still insisting on keeping the schools in the city open. I think this a big mistake which is going to cause problems all across the tri-state area.
The test numbers are beginning to go up which may partially explain the rising numbers but that remains to be seen.
Northern Italy is in a shutdown mode. France and Spain are in partial shutdown modes. I suspect New York City needs to do something similar.
In the meantime it's allergy season so I've got itchy eyes and a slight runny nose. I keep hoping that's not a sore throat that I feel coming on or things could get sticky.
Friday, March 13, 2020
The Corona Virus March 13, 2020
There are currently 2,289 confirmed cases in the US and 50 reported deaths. That's an increase of 526 cases and 9 deaths.
Washington has 568 cases and 37 deaths.
New York has 421 cases and 0 deaths.
California has 295 cases and 5 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 50 cases and 1 death.
Governor Murphy is looking at closing all schools and will probably do so early next week.
New York City continues to keep its schools open so children can get meals and their parents have someplace to leave them when they go to work but the pressure is mounting to close them.
Hoffman La Roche has announced a new COVID-19 detection test for its copas 8800 and 6800 devices that should reduce test time giving the 8800 a theoretical capacity of over 4,000 tests per day and the 6800 a theoretical capacity of over 1,400 tests per day.
There are some 110 of these devices installed and Roche is cranking up production of the kits so if this can get into full swing it will help a lot.
President Trump has declared a state of emergency so that will free up money for additional test kits but at the same time he insisted that all of the tests won't be needed.
The man is an idiot.
Personally I'm staying home the next couple of days and then I'll see.
Washington has 568 cases and 37 deaths.
New York has 421 cases and 0 deaths.
California has 295 cases and 5 deaths.
Here in New Jersey we have 50 cases and 1 death.
Governor Murphy is looking at closing all schools and will probably do so early next week.
New York City continues to keep its schools open so children can get meals and their parents have someplace to leave them when they go to work but the pressure is mounting to close them.
Hoffman La Roche has announced a new COVID-19 detection test for its copas 8800 and 6800 devices that should reduce test time giving the 8800 a theoretical capacity of over 4,000 tests per day and the 6800 a theoretical capacity of over 1,400 tests per day.
There are some 110 of these devices installed and Roche is cranking up production of the kits so if this can get into full swing it will help a lot.
President Trump has declared a state of emergency so that will free up money for additional test kits but at the same time he insisted that all of the tests won't be needed.
The man is an idiot.
Personally I'm staying home the next couple of days and then I'll see.
Thursday, March 12, 2020
The Corona Virus III
All schools are closed in Bergen County; Broadway has shutdown across the river; the Archdiocese of Newark has suspended mass and closed all of its schools. The NBA, NHL and NCAA have suspended their seasons. MLB has delayed the season opener by at least two weeks.
March Madness won't happen this year. Disneyland in California has closed. Trump got on TV last night and in a disjointed, and apparently error strewn rambling talk stopped most travel between the US and Europe.
I say "error strewn" because staff members had to issue corrections after the speech. Apparently the idiot can't even read a teleprompter.
These are all good moves but without adequate testing it’s just not enough.
Hopefully we’re buying enough time to get test capacity up to snuff but I just don’t see a sense of urgency from Washington. Congress and the White House seem more concerned about the economic fallout. The numbers start hitting millions of infected and thousands of dead and the recent economic loses will look like boom times.
March Madness won't happen this year. Disneyland in California has closed. Trump got on TV last night and in a disjointed, and apparently error strewn rambling talk stopped most travel between the US and Europe.
I say "error strewn" because staff members had to issue corrections after the speech. Apparently the idiot can't even read a teleprompter.
These are all good moves but without adequate testing it’s just not enough.
Hopefully we’re buying enough time to get test capacity up to snuff but I just don’t see a sense of urgency from Washington. Congress and the White House seem more concerned about the economic fallout. The numbers start hitting millions of infected and thousands of dead and the recent economic loses will look like boom times.
The Corona Virus II
Things are deteriorating rapidly.
According to the latest numbers the US now has 1,747 cases and 41 deaths. That’s an increase of 415 cases and 2 deaths since yesterday.
The good news is that’s a linear increase but the bad news is testing is still not as exhaustive as it needs to be.
In New Jersey the cases went up from 23 to 31 including 2 that cannot be traced back to a foreign traveler so they’re probably true instances of community spread.
I’ve decided to skip the gym tomorrow, stay home and play video games.
But I can’t do that for months or a year or more. I’ll probably eventually decide to continue with my life and just take my chances. Unfortunately suffocating to death doesn’t sound like a real good way to go.
According to the latest numbers the US now has 1,747 cases and 41 deaths. That’s an increase of 415 cases and 2 deaths since yesterday.
The good news is that’s a linear increase but the bad news is testing is still not as exhaustive as it needs to be.
In New Jersey the cases went up from 23 to 31 including 2 that cannot be traced back to a foreign traveler so they’re probably true instances of community spread.
I’ve decided to skip the gym tomorrow, stay home and play video games.
But I can’t do that for months or a year or more. I’ll probably eventually decide to continue with my life and just take my chances. Unfortunately suffocating to death doesn’t sound like a real good way to go.
Monday, March 09, 2020
Biden or Sanders?
If you had told me four or five months ago that we'd be down to a choice between two geriatric white dudes I would have said that you were out of your mind.
But now I suspect we’re faced with a choice of either Sanders or Biden. I’m going to speculate that the stock market carnage over the past couple of weeks has significantly reduced Sanders’ chances.
When people have lost lots of value in their investments and 401Ks telling folks you’re going to raise their taxes, even if you’re saying overall they’ll be better off, is a really hard sell. So I have to believe it’s going to be Uncle Joe.
Another couple of months of economic chaos and we’ll have a full blown recession, assuming that’s not guaranteed already (and that may be the least of our worries).
If that happens, and it looks pretty bad right now, I don't think anything is going to save Trump, not even a gaffe a day from Biden.
Biden is 77 and should be smart enough to understand that he will need to rely heavily upon his cabinet and vice president.
So I’m thinking the VP choice could be REALLY important. I’m also almost certain that it has to be a woman. A Latina would be best but I’m not aware of any with enough stature right now. It won’t be Warren because she smells too much like Sanders. Given that Harris jumped on Biden’s bandwagon so quickly I have to believe she’s one likely choice.
Beyond Harris, I'm not sure. I think Klobuchar is too similar. I suppose Kirsten Gillibrand is a possibility but you don't want both candidates from the Northeast. Julian Castro would be an interesting choice if Biden decides not to go with a woman.
There's also Stacey Abrams from Georgia. She has a trifecta going for her. She's female, Black and from a state that the Democrat would love to see go purple or even blue this time around.
I suppose we'll see what we see assuming the virus doesn't get us first.
But now I suspect we’re faced with a choice of either Sanders or Biden. I’m going to speculate that the stock market carnage over the past couple of weeks has significantly reduced Sanders’ chances.
When people have lost lots of value in their investments and 401Ks telling folks you’re going to raise their taxes, even if you’re saying overall they’ll be better off, is a really hard sell. So I have to believe it’s going to be Uncle Joe.
Another couple of months of economic chaos and we’ll have a full blown recession, assuming that’s not guaranteed already (and that may be the least of our worries).
If that happens, and it looks pretty bad right now, I don't think anything is going to save Trump, not even a gaffe a day from Biden.
Biden is 77 and should be smart enough to understand that he will need to rely heavily upon his cabinet and vice president.
So I’m thinking the VP choice could be REALLY important. I’m also almost certain that it has to be a woman. A Latina would be best but I’m not aware of any with enough stature right now. It won’t be Warren because she smells too much like Sanders. Given that Harris jumped on Biden’s bandwagon so quickly I have to believe she’s one likely choice.
Beyond Harris, I'm not sure. I think Klobuchar is too similar. I suppose Kirsten Gillibrand is a possibility but you don't want both candidates from the Northeast. Julian Castro would be an interesting choice if Biden decides not to go with a woman.
There's also Stacey Abrams from Georgia. She has a trifecta going for her. She's female, Black and from a state that the Democrat would love to see go purple or even blue this time around.
I suppose we'll see what we see assuming the virus doesn't get us first.
The Corona Virus
No, the virus hasn't gotten me. As least not yet. Who knows what tomorrow may bring?
What the hell is going on? Clearly we are learning about the disadvantages of a global family and the ability to travel worldwide.
If the virus had emerged back in the 19th century it would probably have never made it out of China. But these days, with people jetting all over the place, it was almost certain to escape its original breeding grounds.
So now what? The cases in the US have topped 600 with concentrations around Seattle and Westchester county in New York. World wide the numbers are over 100,000 with over 3,000 deaths. There have been 22 deaths in the US mostly at a nursing home near Seattle.
The older you are the harder you're hit by this thing. One positive note is that children seem to weather the illness fairly well. If you're over 80 though it can be touch and go.
No one is really sure what the death rate is because no one is really sure we have a handle on how many cases there have actually been. As testing becomes more common expect the number of cases in the US to skyrocket.
The stock market has absolutely imploded over this thing. I stopped looking at the numbers because it's just that bad.
In the meantime Trump has gone to his standard response. He's blustering, bullying and alternately blaming anybody and everything for the stock market and the virus and claiming that the virus is a hoax or at least not nearly as bad as the media is making it out to be,
He should tell the stock market that. That he can't claim is a hoax or fake news.
So what happens now? Beats me but the potential for catastrophe is there. If 10% of the population catches this thing that will mean 33 million patients. If 2% die that would be 660,000 deaths. That's more than the total military deaths in the Civil War and more than the total military deaths in World War II.
The scary part is that it could get even worse than that.
What the hell is going on? Clearly we are learning about the disadvantages of a global family and the ability to travel worldwide.
If the virus had emerged back in the 19th century it would probably have never made it out of China. But these days, with people jetting all over the place, it was almost certain to escape its original breeding grounds.
So now what? The cases in the US have topped 600 with concentrations around Seattle and Westchester county in New York. World wide the numbers are over 100,000 with over 3,000 deaths. There have been 22 deaths in the US mostly at a nursing home near Seattle.
The older you are the harder you're hit by this thing. One positive note is that children seem to weather the illness fairly well. If you're over 80 though it can be touch and go.
No one is really sure what the death rate is because no one is really sure we have a handle on how many cases there have actually been. As testing becomes more common expect the number of cases in the US to skyrocket.
The stock market has absolutely imploded over this thing. I stopped looking at the numbers because it's just that bad.
In the meantime Trump has gone to his standard response. He's blustering, bullying and alternately blaming anybody and everything for the stock market and the virus and claiming that the virus is a hoax or at least not nearly as bad as the media is making it out to be,
He should tell the stock market that. That he can't claim is a hoax or fake news.
So what happens now? Beats me but the potential for catastrophe is there. If 10% of the population catches this thing that will mean 33 million patients. If 2% die that would be 660,000 deaths. That's more than the total military deaths in the Civil War and more than the total military deaths in World War II.
The scary part is that it could get even worse than that.
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