The Corona Virus, Octyober 27, 2022

 US Cases

Jan 3-- Jan 9--- 4,740,701

Jan 10- Jan 16--5,613,621

Jan 17- Jan 23--4.833,136

Jan 24- Jan 30-3.635,947

Jan 31- Feb 6-- 2,067,191

Feb 7 - Feb 13--1,222,144

Feb 14-Feb 20-   718,130

Feb 21-Feb 27-   460,334

Feb 28-Mar 6-   310,702

Mar 7- Mar 13-  239,624

Mar 14-Mar 20- 209,335

Mar 21-Mar 27- 210,840

Mar 28-Apr 3-  189,616

Apr 4 - Apr 10- 217,735

Apr 11- Apr 17- 262,333

Apr 18- Apr 24- 328,475

Apr 25- May 1--396.900

May 2- May 8--492,870

May 9-May 15--632,961

May 16-May 22-756,455

May 23-May 29-769,979

May 30-Jun 5-- 706,874

Jun 6 -Jun 12-- 722,351

Jun 13 -Jun 19-705,425

Jun 20 -Jun 26-745,145

Jun 27 -Jul 3  -792,645

Jul 4 -   Jul 10 -752,731

Jul 11 -  Jul 17 -909,566

Jul 18 - Jul 24- 892,292

Jul 25 - Jul 31- 864,871

Aug 1 - Aug 7-  822,948

Aug 8 -Aug 14-720,314

Aug 15-Aug 21-666,092

Aug 22-Aug 28-618,737

Aug 29-Sep 4-  611,107

Sep 5  -Sep 11- 463,113

Sep 12 Sep 18- 431,984

Sep 19 Sep 25- 379,673

Sep 26 Oct 2-   327,481

Oct 3 - Oct 9-  284,417

Oct 10-Oct 16-263,879

Oct 17-Oct 23-264,187

Completely flat on the national scene.

'New Jersey Cases

Jan 3-- Jan 9--- 192,979-407 - 0.21%

Jan 10- Jan 16--132,232-628 - 0.47%

Jan 17- Jan 23-- 63,948-668 - 1.04%

Jan 24- Jan 30--37,270-641 - 1.72%

Jan 31- Feb 6--- 17,740-557 - 3.14%

Feb 7 - Feb 13--  11,591-425 - 3.67%

Feb 14-Feb 20-  10,885

Feb 21-Feb 27-    7,264

Feb 28-Mar 6-    6,109

Mar 7- Mar 13-   5,982

Mar 14-Mar 20- 5.524

Mar 21-Mar 27- 5,640

Mar 28-Apr 3-   6,758

Apr 4 - Apr 10-  9,562

Apr 11- Apr 17- 11,936

Apr 18- Apr 24-12,190

Apr 25- May 1--15,032

May 2- May 8--20,151

May 9-May 15--26,275

May 16-May 22-27,458

May 23-May 29-26,694

May 30-Jun 5--  19,849

Jun 6 -Jun 12--  18,224

Jun 13 -Jun 19- 15,084

Jun 20 -Jun 26-15,187

Jun 27 -Jul 3  -  17,251

Jul 4 -   Jul 10 - 17,121

Jul 11 -  Jul 17 - 19,482

Jul 18 - Jul 24-  21,444

Jul 25 - Jul 31-  19,955

Aug 1 - Aug 7-    17,760

Aug 8 -Aug 14-  15,532

Aug 15-Aug 21- 13,022

Aug 22-Aug 28-11,619

Aug 29-Sep 4-  10,285

Sep 5  -Sep 11-   9,895

Sep 12 Sep 18-  10,371

Sep 19 Sep 25-  13,288

Sep 26 Oct 2-   11,477

Oct 3 - Oct 9-   10,159

Oct 10-Oct 16-  9,034

Oct 17-Oct 23-  8.767

The New Jersey cases were pretty flat as well with only a 3% drop.

Bergen County Cases

Jan 3-- Jan 9--- 20,479 - 49 - 0.24%

Jan 10- Jan 16--13,322 - 57 - 0.43%

Jan 17- Jan 23-- 7,076 - 56 - 0.79%

Jan 24- Jan 30--3,200 -50 - 1.56%

Jan 31- Feb 6---  1,691--47 - 2.78%

Feb 7 - Feb 13--- 1,139 - 29 -2.55%

Feb 14-Feb 20-      942

Feb 21-Feb 27-      779

Feb 28-Mar 6-      747

Mar 7- Mar 13-     803

Mar 14-Mar 20-   991

Mar 21-Mar 27-   854

Mar 28-Apr 3-     974

Apr 4 - Apr 10-  1.466

Apr 11- Apr 17-  1,777

Apr 18- Apr 24-1,867

Apr 25- May 1--2,073

May 2- May 8--2,900

May 9-May 15--3,704

May 16-May 22-3,338

May 23-May 29-3,207

May 30-Jun 5--  2,268

Jun 6 -Jun 12--  2,133

Jun 13 -Jun 19- 1,784

Jun 20 -Jun 26- 1,896

Jun 27 -Jul 2  -   2,031

Jul 4 -   Jul 10 -  1,915

Jul 11 -  Jul 17 -  2.354

Jul 18 - Jul 24-  2,487

Jul 25 - Jul 31-  2.198

Aug 1 - Aug 7-    1,696

Aug 8 -Aug 14-   1,510

Aug 15-Aug 21-  1.359

Aug 22-Aug 28-1,068

Aug 29-Sep 4-   1,021

Sep 5  -Sep 11-   1,107

Sep 12 Sep 18-   1,109

Sep 19 Sep 25-  1,486

Sep 26 Oct 2-    1,328

Oct 3 - Oct 9-    1,104

Oct 10-Oct 16-  1.019

Oct 17-Oct 23-  1,116

Bergen County actually went up a little. This is either previously reported cases first being allocated to a county or the start of something as Bergen County is the gateway from New York.

A quiet week. The electricians were here to change the oil in the generator. That was the big event of the week.

The 2022 Election, October 25, 2022

Things are getting worse and worse for the Democrats. Like the man once said, it's the economy stupid. Inflation is going to give the GOP a big win.

Real Clear Politics projects: -- Republicans Gain

Senate: Republicans 53+1, Democrats 47-1 including:

Pennsylvania Republican, Ohio Republican, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Republican, Nevada Republican, Arizona Republican

House: Republicans 225+4, Democrats 175-1, Toss ups 35-3

Electoral Vote Projects -- Republicans Gain

Senate: Republicans 50+1, Democrats 50 including:

Pennsylvania Democrat, Ohio Republican, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Democrat, Nevada Republican, Arizona Democrat

Five Thirty Eight Probability of Winning - Republicans Gain

Senate: Republicans 45%+8%, Democrats 55%-8%  including:

Pennsylvania Toss up Ohio Republican, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Toss up, Nevada Toss up, Arizona Democrat

House: Republicans 81% +8%, Democrats 19% - 8%

Universal Healthcare

I was watch a Youtube video on the Rebel HQ channel. They had a Gen Z type quoting the outrageous medical costs in the US.

However, they were being more than a little disingenuous. No one pays those sorts of fees unless they're uninsured. Would REQUIRED universal healthcare be a hell of a lot better for everyone? Yes, I think it would be but it wouldn't be free. Universal healthcare is a form of government funded health insurance. You would just be paying for it in taxes rather than to an insurance company. Would it be less expensive? Eliminate the insurance company middle men and profits and it certainly should be.

But you WILL pay for it. Probably in taxes of some sort. It should be much more efficient than having 10 or 20 individual healthcare insurance companies as middle men so the additional taxes should be less than the cost of health insurance, the coverage will be uniform and it will travel with you as you change jobs. Plus, the administrative costs for doctors and hospitals will be less because they won't have to deal with a dozen or more individual insurance companies. That sounds to me like it would be a lot better but, one more time, you will pay something for it.

For example, Bernie Sanders' Medicare for All proposal in 2020 included a 4% surcharge on taxable income. Go to line 15 of your 1040 and multiply that amount by .04 if you want to know how much that would be for you.

It's that word "REQUIRED" that seems to cause all the problems. Just like some people refused to wear masks and get vaccinated some are opposed to being required to pay for universal healthcare.

We're on Medicare (because we're old and feeble ;-)) and it's pretty good but it's not free. Aside from the fact that we've been paying toward it the whole time we were working there are still monthly fees that are deducted from Social Security. For Part A, hospitalization, there is no charge for but Part B, doctors visits etc., and Part D, prescriptions, there are fees. My wife and I pay around $400 per month for Parts B & D and the federal government still has to provide an additional $353 billion in Medicare funding plus there's $518 billion in Medicaid funding. To put that in perspective, the Department of Defense budget is $773 billion.

Again, referring back to Sanders' 2020 proposal, he came up with a budget of about $1.6 trillion which included all of the Medicare and Medicaid funding plus the revenue from the surcharge and a few other sources. I thought he was about $1 trillion short but I'm a natural pessimist.

Trans Athletes

The IOC has decided to allow each sport to rule on transgender participation. This make sense because any advantages enjoyed by trans athletes may vary based upon sport from extensive to negligible. The NCAA has followed the IOC and called for the governing body of each sport to decide.

FINA, world swimming, has decided that only athletes who transitioned before the age of 12 may compete. World Athletics only allows trans women to compete if their testosterone levels have been below 5nmol/L for 12 months but is reviewing that standard in the wake of the FINA ruling. World Rugby flat out bans transgender women from playing women's rugby "Because of the size, force- and power-producing advantages conferred by testosterone during puberty and adolescence, and the resultant player welfare risks this creates."

High school sports may not have the resources to establish independent guidelines or perform the necessary testosterone testing so it is not necessarily wrong for state legislatures to make the decision.

Personally, as the father of three girls and a former licensed athletics coach in soccer and softball, I'm opposed to allowing trans women to compete in women's sports for both fairness and safety reasons. I'm open to being convinced otherwise but "because trans rights" is not good enough. Convince me that it's both fair and safe.

The Corona Virus, October 20, 2022

 US Cases

Jan 3-- Jan 9--- 4,740,701

Jan 10- Jan 16--5,613,621

Jan 17- Jan 23--4.833,136

Jan 24- Jan 30-3.635,947

Jan 31- Feb 6-- 2,067,191

Feb 7 - Feb 13--1,222,144

Feb 14-Feb 20-   718,130

Feb 21-Feb 27-   460,334

Feb 28-Mar 6-   310,702

Mar 7- Mar 13-  239,624

Mar 14-Mar 20- 209,335

Mar 21-Mar 27- 210,840

Mar 28-Apr 3-  189,616

Apr 4 - Apr 10- 217,735

Apr 11- Apr 17- 262,333

Apr 18- Apr 24- 328,475

Apr 25- May 1--396.900

May 2- May 8--492,870

May 9-May 15--632,961

May 16-May 22-756,455

May 23-May 29-769,979

May 30-Jun 5-- 706,874

Jun 6 -Jun 12-- 722,351

Jun 13 -Jun 19-705,425

Jun 20 -Jun 26-745,145

Jun 27 -Jul 3  -792,645

Jul 4 -   Jul 10 -752,731

Jul 11 -  Jul 17 -909,566

Jul 18 - Jul 24- 892,292

Jul 25 - Jul 31- 864,871

Aug 1 - Aug 7-  822,948

Aug 8 -Aug 14-720,314

Aug 15-Aug 21-666,092

Aug 22-Aug 28-618,737

Aug 29-Sep 4-  611,107

Sep 5  -Sep 11- 463,113

Sep 12 Sep 18- 431,984

Sep 19 Sep 25- 379,673

Sep 26 Oct 2-   327,481

Oct 3 - Oct 9-  284,417

Oct 10-Oct 16-263,879

A slight drop nationally.

'New Jersey Cases

Jan 3-- Jan 9--- 192,979-407 - 0.21%

Jan 10- Jan 16--132,232-628 - 0.47%

Jan 17- Jan 23-- 63,948-668 - 1.04%

Jan 24- Jan 30--37,270-641 - 1.72%

Jan 31- Feb 6--- 17,740-557 - 3.14%

Feb 7 - Feb 13--  11,591-425 - 3.67%

Feb 14-Feb 20-  10,885

Feb 21-Feb 27-    7,264

Feb 28-Mar 6-    6,109

Mar 7- Mar 13-   5,982

Mar 14-Mar 20- 5.524

Mar 21-Mar 27- 5,640

Mar 28-Apr 3-   6,758

Apr 4 - Apr 10-  9,562

Apr 11- Apr 17- 11,936

Apr 18- Apr 24-12,190

Apr 25- May 1--15,032

May 2- May 8--20,151

May 9-May 15--26,275

May 16-May 22-27,458

May 23-May 29-26,694

May 30-Jun 5--  19,849

Jun 6 -Jun 12--  18,224

Jun 13 -Jun 19- 15,084

Jun 20 -Jun 26-15,187

Jun 27 -Jul 3  -  17,251

Jul 4 -   Jul 10 - 17,121

Jul 11 -  Jul 17 - 19,482

Jul 18 - Jul 24-  21,444

Jul 25 - Jul 31-  19,955

Aug 1 - Aug 7-    17,760

Aug 8 -Aug 14-  15,532

Aug 15-Aug 21- 13,022

Aug 22-Aug 28-11,619

Aug 29-Sep 4-  10,285

Sep 5  -Sep 11-   9,895

Sep 12 Sep 18-  10,371

Sep 19 Sep 25-  13,288

Sep 26 Oct 2-   11,477

Oct 3 - Oct 9-   10,159

Oct 10-Oct 16-  9,034

The New Jersey cases dropped below 10,000 for the first time in a while.

Bergen County Cases

Jan 3-- Jan 9--- 20,479 - 49 - 0.24%

Jan 10- Jan 16--13,322 - 57 - 0.43%

Jan 17- Jan 23-- 7,076 - 56 - 0.79%

Jan 24- Jan 30--3,200 -50 - 1.56%

Jan 31- Feb 6---  1,691--47 - 2.78%

Feb 7 - Feb 13--- 1,139 - 29 -2.55%

Feb 14-Feb 20-      942

Feb 21-Feb 27-      779

Feb 28-Mar 6-      747

Mar 7- Mar 13-     803

Mar 14-Mar 20-   991

Mar 21-Mar 27-   854

Mar 28-Apr 3-     974

Apr 4 - Apr 10-  1.466

Apr 11- Apr 17-  1,777

Apr 18- Apr 24-1,867

Apr 25- May 1--2,073

May 2- May 8--2,900

May 9-May 15--3,704

May 16-May 22-3,338

May 23-May 29-3,207

May 30-Jun 5--  2,268

Jun 6 -Jun 12--  2,133

Jun 13 -Jun 19- 1,784

Jun 20 -Jun 26- 1,896

Jun 27 -Jul 2  -   2,031

Jul 4 -   Jul 10 -  1,915

Jul 11 -  Jul 17 -  2.354

Jul 18 - Jul 24-  2,487

Jul 25 - Jul 31-  2.198

Aug 1 - Aug 7-    1,696

Aug 8 -Aug 14-   1,510

Aug 15-Aug 21-  1.359

Aug 22-Aug 28-1,068

Aug 29-Sep 4-   1,021

Sep 5  -Sep 11-   1,107

Sep 12 Sep 18-   1,109

Sep 19 Sep 25-  1,486

Sep 26 Oct 2-    1,328

Oct 3 - Oct 9-    1,104

Oct 10-Oct 16-  1.019

Bergen County had something of a leveling off and the numbers this week don't look terribly encouraging so far.

OK, our boosters are done and we got the chip bags in preparation for Halloween. Hopefully things will be quiet for a while.

The 2022 Election, October 18, 2022

 Real Clear Politics projects: -- Republicans Gain

Senate: Republicans 52, Democrats 48 including:

Pennsylvania Republican, Ohio Republican, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Republican, Nevada Republican

House: Republicans 221+1, Democrats 176-4, Toss ups 38+3

Electoral Vote Projects -- Republicans Gain

Senate: Republicans 49, Democrats 50-1 including:

Pennsylvania Democrat, Ohio Republican, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Democrat, Nevada Tied

Five Thirty Eight Probability of Winning - Republicans Gain

Senate: Republicans 37%+4%, Democrats 63%-4%  including:

Pennsylvania Democrat Ohio Republican, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Toss up, Nevada Toss up

House: Republicans 73% +3%, Democrats 27 - 3%%

The Corona Virus, October 13, 2022

 US Cases

Jan 3-- Jan 9--- 4,740,701

Jan 10- Jan 16--5,613,621

Jan 17- Jan 23--4.833,136

Jan 24- Jan 30-3.635,947

Jan 31- Feb 6-- 2,067,191

Feb 7 - Feb 13--1,222,144

Feb 14-Feb 20-   718,130

Feb 21-Feb 27-   460,334

Feb 28-Mar 6-   310,702

Mar 7- Mar 13-  239,624

Mar 14-Mar 20- 209,335

Mar 21-Mar 27- 210,840

Mar 28-Apr 3-  189,616

Apr 4 - Apr 10- 217,735

Apr 11- Apr 17- 262,333

Apr 18- Apr 24- 328,475

Apr 25- May 1--396.900

May 2- May 8--492,870

May 9-May 15--632,961

May 16-May 22-756,455

May 23-May 29-769,979

May 30-Jun 5-- 706,874

Jun 6 -Jun 12-- 722,351

Jun 13 -Jun 19-705,425

Jun 20 -Jun 26-745,145

Jun 27 -Jul 3  -792,645

Jul 4 -   Jul 10 -752,731

Jul 11 -  Jul 17 -909,566

Jul 18 - Jul 24- 892,292

Jul 25 - Jul 31- 864,871

Aug 1 - Aug 7-  822,948

Aug 8 -Aug 14-720,314

Aug 15-Aug 21-666,092

Aug 22-Aug 28-618,737

Aug 29-Sep 4-  611,107

Sep 5  -Sep 11- 463,113

Sep 12 Sep 18- 431,984

Sep 19 Sep 25- 379,673

Sep 26 Oct 2-   327,481

Oct 3 - Oct 9-  284,417

The national numbers are still dropping nicely. This is the lowest number of cases since April.

'New Jersey Cases

Jan 3-- Jan 9--- 192,979-407 - 0.21%

Jan 10- Jan 16--132,232-628 - 0.47%

Jan 17- Jan 23-- 63,948-668 - 1.04%

Jan 24- Jan 30--37,270-641 - 1.72%

Jan 31- Feb 6--- 17,740-557 - 3.14%

Feb 7 - Feb 13--  11,591-425 - 3.67%

Feb 14-Feb 20-  10,885

Feb 21-Feb 27-    7,264

Feb 28-Mar 6-    6,109

Mar 7- Mar 13-   5,982

Mar 14-Mar 20- 5.524

Mar 21-Mar 27- 5,640

Mar 28-Apr 3-   6,758

Apr 4 - Apr 10-  9,562

Apr 11- Apr 17- 11,936

Apr 18- Apr 24-12,190

Apr 25- May 1--15,032

May 2- May 8--20,151

May 9-May 15--26,275

May 16-May 22-27,458

May 23-May 29-26,694

May 30-Jun 5--  19,849

Jun 6 -Jun 12--  18,224

Jun 13 -Jun 19- 15,084

Jun 20 -Jun 26-15,187

Jun 27 -Jul 3  -  17,251

Jul 4 -   Jul 10 - 17,121

Jul 11 -  Jul 17 - 19,482

Jul 18 - Jul 24-  21,444

Jul 25 - Jul 31-  19,955

Aug 1 - Aug 7-    17,760

Aug 8 -Aug 14-  15,532

Aug 15-Aug 21- 13,022

Aug 22-Aug 28-11,619

Aug 29-Sep 4-  10,285

Sep 5  -Sep 11-   9,895

Sep 12 Sep 18-  10,371

Sep 19 Sep 25-  13,288

Sep 26 Oct 2-   11,477

Oct 3 - Oct 9-   10,159

The New Jersey cases are down as well.

Bergen County Cases

Jan 3-- Jan 9--- 20,479 - 49 - 0.24%

Jan 10- Jan 16--13,322 - 57 - 0.43%

Jan 17- Jan 23-- 7,076 - 56 - 0.79%

Jan 24- Jan 30--3,200 -50 - 1.56%

Jan 31- Feb 6---  1,691--47 - 2.78%

Feb 7 - Feb 13--- 1,139 - 29 -2.55%

Feb 14-Feb 20-      942

Feb 21-Feb 27-      779

Feb 28-Mar 6-      747

Mar 7- Mar 13-     803

Mar 14-Mar 20-   991

Mar 21-Mar 27-   854

Mar 28-Apr 3-     974

Apr 4 - Apr 10-  1.466

Apr 11- Apr 17-  1,777

Apr 18- Apr 24-1,867

Apr 25- May 1--2,073

May 2- May 8--2,900

May 9-May 15--3,704

May 16-May 22-3,338

May 23-May 29-3,207

May 30-Jun 5--  2,268

Jun 6 -Jun 12--  2,133

Jun 13 -Jun 19- 1,784

Jun 20 -Jun 26- 1,896

Jun 27 -Jul 2  -   2,031

Jul 4 -   Jul 10 -  1,915

Jul 11 -  Jul 17 -  2.354

Jul 18 - Jul 24-  2,487

Jul 25 - Jul 31-  2.198

Aug 1 - Aug 7-    1,696

Aug 8 -Aug 14-   1,510

Aug 15-Aug 21-  1.359

Aug 22-Aug 28-1,068

Aug 29-Sep 4-   1,021

Sep 5  -Sep 11-   1,107

Sep 12 Sep 18-   1,109

Sep 19 Sep 25-  1,486

Sep 26 Oct 2-    1,328

Oct 3 - Oct 9-    1,104

Bergen County had a nice drop as well.

The flu shot is done. I passed my colonoscopy so I'm good for another five years. I did well with the cardiologist as well. Tomorrow we get our boosters.

A Bad Day for Trump

It was a triple whammy for Trump today.

First, the Supreme Court denied his motion to vacate the ruling by the 11th Circuit that the classified documents could be returned to the government.

Second, New York filed for an emergency injunction to keep Trump from moving funds in order to protect his assets from the $250 million fraud suit filed by the NY AG.

And the cherry on top was that the January 6th committee unanimously voted to issue a subpoena for Donald J. Trump to testify under oath about the events on 1/6/21.

I still think that this is much ado about nothing and Trump will never face any consequences but he must be really pissed at the moment.

They're Tracking Us

So what? Let them sell my data to the police and ICE because it's worthless. I haven't committed any crimes and I'm not an illegal alien. If someone monitors my activities they'll probably die of boredom. Besides, it's really way too late to worry about it.

The IRS, Medicare and the SSA know me better than my own mother did. My security clearance is no longer active so at least my FBI and CIA files are probably in storage. Google already sends me a monthly report on the places I've been. They stopped sending me paper football tickets and I have to use Google Pay so they know if I'm at the game. My backup generator sends me self-check texts and my Forester sends me regular reports on it's "health. If I Google a product I immediately start getting ads on my computer, tablet and phone about similar products. I don't even want to talk about how intertwined all of the various healthcare pieces are.

They do make mistakes though. They must think everyone was at Camp Lejuene and I don't understand why anyone thought I would be interested in buying anything from the Trump Store. I suppose they'll compensate for those sorts of errors as time goes on.

This is an example of the pros outweighing the cons for the overwhelming majority of people. Insuring that one doctor doesn't give you a prescription that interferes with a prescription issued by another doctor outweighs all of the annoying ads. Be careful about complaining you're tied to a smart phone because I'm sure someone in the not too distant future will figure out how to inject a RF ID chip that will allow you to do everything all by itself and make tracking you much more efficient.

The 2022 Election, October 11, 2022

 Real Clear Politics projects: -- Republicans Gain

Senate: Republicans 52, Democrats 48 including:

Pennsylvania Republican, Ohio Republican, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Republican, Nevada Republican

House: Republicans 220+2, Democrats 180-4, Toss ups 35+2

Electoral Vote Projects -- No Change

Senate: Republicans 49, Democrats 51 including:

Pennsylvania Democrat, Ohio Democrat, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Democrat, Nevada Republican

Five Thirty Eight Probability of Winning - Republicans Gain

Senate: Republicans 33%, Democrats 67%  including:

Pennsylvania Democrat Ohio Republican, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Toss up, Nevada Toss up

House: Republicans 70% +1%, Democrats 30 - 1%%

The Mar-a-Lago Fiasco, October 5th

 Boy things are moving at lightening speed here.

Clarence Thomas, who has responsibility for the 11th Circuit, has asked the DOJ to respond to Trump's motion to vacate the ruling by the 11th Circuit that the classified documents could be returned to the government.

There are a few layers here.

The first layer is legal experts are split on whether this is OK or whether Thomas should have simply tossed the motion.

The second layer is that Thomas' wife, Ginni, was deeply involved in the effort to overturn the 2020 election so perhaps Thomas should recuse himself here. Unfortunately the SCOTUS is a self governing body with code of conduct so there is no one to force that recusal.

The third layer is that after being scolded by the 11th Circuit Judge Eileen Cannon amended her original Special Master order to remove the classified documents so the whole question is arguable moot.

I'm sure the DOJ will respond and then we'll see.

5 PM Update: The 11th Circuit has granted the DOJ request for an expedited appeal and has established a schedule with all hearings done by the 3rd week in November. This is better than the end of January but it still appears to be winning the delay game.

The 2022 Election, October 4, 2022

I realized that Monday or Tuesday would be good for election posts.

Real Clear Politics projects: -- No Change

Senate: Republicans 52, Democrats 48 including:

Pennsylvania Republican, Ohio Republican, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Republican, Nevada Republican

House: Republicans 218, Democrats 184, Toss ups 33

Electoral Vote Projects -- No Change

Senate: Republicans 49, Democrats 51 including:

Pennsylvania Democrat, Ohio Democrat, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Democrat, Nevada Republican

Five Thirty Eight Probability of Winning - Republicans Gain

Senate: Republicans 33% +2%, Democrats 67% - 2% including:

Pennsylvania Democrat Ohio Republican, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Toss up, Nevada Toss up

House: Republicans 69% +1%, Democrats 31 - 1%%

The Mar-a-Lago Fiasco, October 4th

So Trump has made three filings.

First he has filed in opposition to the DOJ's request to the 11th Circuit for an expedited appeal and asking that things be pushed out until the end of January. 

There's no real surprise here. Trump's strategy all along seems to be focused upon delay primarily with a little confusion and obfuscation thrown in. I wonder if he figures that somehow a GOP House and Senate, or just one or the other, can somehow make this all go away.

Second he has appealed the 11th Circuit decision on the classified documents to the SCOTUS claiming that Judge Canon's order wasn't one that could be overruled by the 11th Circuit. This would put those classified documents back under the Special Master who is being overruled at every turn by Judge Cannon.

Finally, he has sued CNN for saying that he is pushing a "Big Lie" and for allowing guests to say that he's pushing a "Big Lie." According to Trump using a term associated with Hitler and Nazi Germany is defamatory.

The Corona Virus, October 4, 2022

US Cases

Jan 3-- Jan 9--- 4,740,701

Jan 10- Jan 16--5,613,621

Jan 17- Jan 23--4.833,136

Jan 24- Jan 30-3.635,947

Jan 31- Feb 6-- 2,067,191

Feb 7 - Feb 13--1,222,144

Feb 14-Feb 20-   718,130

Feb 21-Feb 27-   460,334

Feb 28-Mar 6-   310,702

Mar 7- Mar 13-  239,624

Mar 14-Mar 20- 209,335

Mar 21-Mar 27- 210,840

Mar 28-Apr 3-  189,616

Apr 4 - Apr 10- 217,735

Apr 11- Apr 17- 262,333

Apr 18- Apr 24- 328,475

Apr 25- May 1--396.900

May 2- May 8--492,870

May 9-May 15--632,961

May 16-May 22-756,455

May 23-May 29-769,979

May 30-Jun 5-- 706,874

Jun 6 -Jun 12-- 722,351

Jun 13 -Jun 19-705,425

Jun 20 -Jun 26-745,145

Jun 27 -Jul 3  -792,645

Jul 4 -   Jul 10 -752,731

Jul 11 -  Jul 17 -909,566

Jul 18 - Jul 24- 892,292

Jul 25 - Jul 31- 864,871

Aug 1 - Aug 7-  822,948

Aug 8 -Aug 14-720,314

Aug 15-Aug 21-666,092

Aug 22-Aug 28-618,737

Aug 29-Sep 4-  611,107

Sep 5  -Sep 11- 463,113

Sep 12 Sep 18- 431,984

Sep 19 Sep 25- 379,673

Sep 26 Oct 2-   327,481

The national numbers continue to drop.

'New Jersey Cases

Jan 3-- Jan 9--- 192,979-407 - 0.21%

Jan 10- Jan 16--132,232-628 - 0.47%

Jan 17- Jan 23-- 63,948-668 - 1.04%

Jan 24- Jan 30--37,270-641 - 1.72%

Jan 31- Feb 6--- 17,740-557 - 3.14%

Feb 7 - Feb 13--  11,591-425 - 3.67%

Feb 14-Feb 20-  10,885

Feb 21-Feb 27-    7,264

Feb 28-Mar 6-    6,109

Mar 7- Mar 13-   5,982

Mar 14-Mar 20- 5.524

Mar 21-Mar 27- 5,640

Mar 28-Apr 3-   6,758

Apr 4 - Apr 10-  9,562

Apr 11- Apr 17- 11,936

Apr 18- Apr 24-12,190

Apr 25- May 1--15,032

May 2- May 8--20,151

May 9-May 15--26,275

May 16-May 22-27,458

May 23-May 29-26,694

May 30-Jun 5--  19,849

Jun 6 -Jun 12--  18,224

Jun 13 -Jun 19- 15,084

Jun 20 -Jun 26-15,187

Jun 27 -Jul 3  -  17,251

Jul 4 -   Jul 10 - 17,121

Jul 11 -  Jul 17 - 19,482

Jul 18 - Jul 24-  21,444

Jul 25 - Jul 31-  19,955

Aug 1 - Aug 7-    17,760

Aug 8 -Aug 14-  15,532

Aug 15-Aug 21- 13,022

Aug 22-Aug 28-11,619

Aug 29-Sep 4-  10,285

Sep 5  -Sep 11-   9,895

Sep 12 Sep 18-  10,371

Sep 19 Sep 25-  13,288

Sep 26 Oct 2-   11,477

Things seem to have reversed in New Jersey and cases went down by 13,6%.

Bergen County Cases

Jan 3-- Jan 9--- 20,479 - 49 - 0.24%

Jan 10- Jan 16--13,322 - 57 - 0.43%

Jan 17- Jan 23-- 7,076 - 56 - 0.79%

Jan 24- Jan 30--3,200 -50 - 1.56%

Jan 31- Feb 6---  1,691--47 - 2.78%

Feb 7 - Feb 13--- 1,139 - 29 -2.55%

Feb 14-Feb 20-      942

Feb 21-Feb 27-      779

Feb 28-Mar 6-      747

Mar 7- Mar 13-     803

Mar 14-Mar 20-   991

Mar 21-Mar 27-   854

Mar 28-Apr 3-     974

Apr 4 - Apr 10-  1.466

Apr 11- Apr 17-  1,777

Apr 18- Apr 24-1,867

Apr 25- May 1--2,073

May 2- May 8--2,900

May 9-May 15--3,704

May 16-May 22-3,338

May 23-May 29-3,207

May 30-Jun 5--  2,268

Jun 6 -Jun 12--  2,133

Jun 13 -Jun 19- 1,784

Jun 20 -Jun 26- 1,896

Jun 27 -Jul 2  -   2,031

Jul 4 -   Jul 10 -  1,915

Jul 11 -  Jul 17 -  2.354

Jul 18 - Jul 24-  2,487

Jul 25 - Jul 31-  2.198

Aug 1 - Aug 7-    1,696

Aug 8 -Aug 14-   1,510

Aug 15-Aug 21-  1.359

Aug 22-Aug 28-1,068

Aug 29-Sep 4-   1,021

Sep 5  -Sep 11-   1,107

Sep 12 Sep 18-   1,109

Sep 19 Sep 25-  1,486

Sep 26 Oct 2-    1,328

Bergen County had a slight drop as well.

Bad news from the CT scan, A spot on my lung has expanded and Dr. Shapiro is not happy about it. It's another CT scan in three months and if it, or either of the other two spots he's monitoring, expands it will mean a biopsy. This is going to get ugly.

The Colonoscopy is next on the 1oth. I really don't need bad news from that as well.  After that it's a Cardiologist appointment on the 11th. I get my flu shot on the 7th and we both get our boosters on the 14th.

There's also the question of the aneurisms. If the CT scan didn't pick them up I go for another ultrasound in December I think. It sucks to get old.

The Mar-a-Lago Fiasco

Trump found himself a sympathetic federal judge in Aileen Cannon. She has been making decisions that have raised the eyebrows of legal experts around the country. Whether she is corrupted or just incompetent is open to question.

So, where are we? Trump demanded a Special Master to review the confiscated papers, including the classified documents, and decide which were his personal property and should be returned. So Judge Cannon promptly agreed. 

Trump supplied two names one of which was Judge Raymond Dearie a respected and senior judge from the Eastern District of New York. As soon as the DOJ saw that name they said, hey, we're good with Judge Dearie.

But in the meantime the DOJ appealed including the classified documents to the 11th Circuit which basically came back and told Judge Cannon she was out of her mind and gave the classified documents to the DOJ removing them from the Special Master review,

Judge Dearie made it obvious he was going to fool around and set up a tight schedule for resolving the matter. He also:

(1) Directed the DOJ to provide an updated list of documents seized which the DOJ did. 

(2) Directed Trump to produce an affidavit responding to the DOJ list identifying which documents he claimed and any documents that he asserted were planted as he had been claiming publicly. The affidavit would be filled under penalty of perjury. In other words, put up or shut up.

(3) Hired an assistant magistrate judge to review the actual documents who was authorized to bill Trump at the rate of $500 per hour.

(4) Warned Trump that if he didn't promptly pay the magistrate judge's invoices that he would be held in contempt.

Trump, predictably, went running to Judge Cannon who promptly:

(1) Pushed all of the target dates back.

(2) Ruled that Trump didn't have to produce any affidavit.

So, basically she just overruled the Special Master that she appointed.

The DOJ lost patience with this and has now filed an expedited appeal to the 11th Circuit essentially asking them to get Judge Cannon off the case entirely. What will be with the Special Master if the DOJ prevails is unclear but personally I think Judge Dearie should be retained.

More to come on this after the 11th Circuit rules.

The Ukraine II

The Russians have been having a tough time of it and Putin sounds like he's coming a bit unhinged. He has called up 300,000 reservists which apparently came as a big shock to most Russians.

The Russians have held plebiscites in the four eastern provinces of The Ukraine. Since the "voting" appears to have occurred under the watchful eyes of troops arrived with Kalashnikov rifles unsurprisingly the results were overwhelmingly in favor of leaving The Ukraine and joining mother Russia.

Putin to preparing to annex those province which would provide a land route to the Crimea annexed a while back after a similar plebiscite.

Putin seems intent on annexing The Ukraine province by province. However the Ukrainians might still have something to say about this.

I think Putin is going to annex the four provinces, declare victory and call for negotiations. What The Ukraine and NATO will do about this is anyone's guess. 

Yes, I Know There's an Election Coming Up

 I know there's an election coming but I've been trying to ignore it. 

I have been tracking it on three sites:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

https://electoral-vote.com/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/ 

Real Clear Politics has projections for both House and Senate, Electoral Vote has projections for the Senate and Five Thirty Eight has probabilities of winning the House and Senate. So let's start.

Real Clear Politics projects:

Senate: Republicans 52, Democrats 48 including:

Pennsylvania Republican, Ohio Republican, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Republican, Nevada Republican

House: Republicans 218, Democrats 184, Toss ups 33

Electoral Vote Projects

Senate: Republicans 49, Democrats 51 including:

Pennsylvania Democrat, Ohio Democrat, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Democrat, Nevada Republican

Five Thirty Eight Probability of Winning

Senate: Republicans 32%, Democrats 68% including:

Pennsylvania Democrat Ohio Republican, Wisconsin Republican, Georgia Toss up, Nevada Toss up

House: Republicans 68%, Democrats 32%

In general I believe that polls favor Democrats for a number of reasons including Democrats tend to be oversampled, Democrats are less reliable to actually go and vote and some people just lie. We shall see how things wrk out this time.