Thursday, November 05, 2020

Two Days Later 8:09 PM

Trump held a news conference this evening where he made, without any evidence, claims of voting and ballot counting irregularities. 

Biden has been projected to have 253 votes and Trump 214.

Trump leads in Pennsylvania (20) by 64,000 votes with 7% left.

Trump leads in North Carolina (15) by 78,000 votes with <1% left.

Trump leads in Georgia (16) by 3,500 votes with <1% left.

Trump leads in Alaska (3) by a lot and will win Alaska.

Clearly Trump will hold on in North Carolina but Georgia and especially Pennsylvania might be a problem for him.

Biden leads in Arizona (11) by 56,000 votes with 13% left.

Biden leads in Nevada (6) by 11,000 votes with 12% left.

OK, things are really close. It seems silly to me that over 150 million people have cast ballots but we're obsessing over a couple of thousands votes in four states (Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada).

The Senate has changed. Now it looks like 50-48 with runoffs in both Georgia elections. That should be an absolute circus but I still expect the Republicans to win the runoffs so still figure 52-48.

The Dems are holding onto the House by their fingertips. They could lose it yet and Trump could very easily still win. I have no confidence in Arizona and Nevada is shaky as well. Biden really needs Pennsylvania.

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