I'm FREE, FREE I say, FREE!
In other words my ankle is healed and my brace has gone the way of the boot.
Now I need to figure out when to put my house back together. I'm thinking I'm going to wait a while because I still need to rebuild the strength in both legs. Maybe next weekend.
In the meantime It's a beautiful Halloween day and we got zero trick or treaters. We're usually good for about 20 or so. Even during Covid we got a fair number.
I suppose Trunk or Treat is the new king.
I went to see the thoracic surgeon yesterday to get the results of my CT Scan. Apparently the area that was his biggest concern shrunk in size. It shrunk so much that he thought the Infectious Disease doctor he sent me to last time had given me an antibiotic.
No, she didn't. Maybe all of the gallons of blood that I choked up after the biopsy had something to do with it. The bottom line is I get another six months of freedom and then I get to do it all over again.
I got my Covid shot today. I had gotten the flu shot two weeks ago. Getting the vaccines is pretty painless. I make an appointment at my local CVS which is five minutes away then I walk in and get the shot pretty much immediately. They don't even make you wait the 15 minutes after the Covid shot any more.
Tomorrow I see the ankle doctor. My ankle feels good and, incredibly, after not having any physical therapy for a week my left leg is also feeling a lot better.
My session with the ankle doctor could go very smooth if he tells me I'm all healed and good to go. If he tells me just about anything else then we're going to have a problem because this brace I'm wearing is beginning to irritate my foot and clearly the physical therapy may have helped the ankle but it's destroying my left leg.
I tried to count the number of different doctors that I've seen in the past year and gave up at 12. That was before I got to the two orthopedic dudes I saw. Getting old sucks but I suppose the alternative is worse. The problem is that may not always be true in the future. Maybe I should go looking for that bridge?
This sounds more and more like 2016 again. The momentum for Trump is definitely there just like it was there in 2016. I check the data on a weekly basis and the shift to Trump has been very clear.
I was at the early voting site yesterday and the number of voters made it complete chaos. But I saw very few young voters. That's bad. Older voters were out in force and younger voters were no where to be seen.
The voter turnout in 2020 was 66% of voting eligible population (63% of voting age population) and it will probably be about that again. The states that depress voter turnout numbers are actually the red states which rarely get above 60%. This is possibly because red states make it harder to vote.
Blue states have much higher turnout which is probably why the Democrat candidate wins the popular vote even though they lose the electoral vote.
The REAL problem though is that 72% of people over 65 vote but only 48% of those between 18 and 24 vote. I'm 76 so trust me on this, if you're young and just starting out building a career and a family you DO NOT want my age group making decisions for you.
So Trump wins and the Republicans probably hold the House and take the Senate. How much damage can they do? They didn't do a lot last time because they're not only bat shit crazy but incompetent. Things that I do expect to happen are:
(1) Trump's 2017 tax cuts will be extended if not made permanent.
(2) We'll get another corporate tax cut and may get another tax cut across the board. If we do then it will drive the debt through the roof because tax cuts never pay for themselves.
(3) As laid out in Project 2025 they resurrect Schedule F which will allow the replacement of many, possibly thousands, of civil servants with political appointees. This will be the most dangerous thing to happen because it removes lots of sanity checks.
(4) Ukraine is probably going to see US support dry up but other countries may step in to fill the void. Hopefully that war will end before too much more damage occurs.
(5) Israel will probably get more support. There may or may not be a crack down on the crazies claiming to be pro-Palestine when they have no idea of what the real issues are in the Middle East.
(6) The GOP will try and fail to get national abortion restrictions enacted but it will be a messy fight.
(7) Religion, especially conservative Protestantism, will get a boost in influence. How long this will last is unclear.
(8) LGBTQ, and especially trans, rights will take some hits. At the very least trans women probably won't be competing in woman's sports any more.
It's going to be an uncomfortable four years but I doubt we'll turn into Nazi Germany.
Yesterday my oldest daughter was in town. She was driving a borrowed Jeep truck with Texas dealer plates that she had taken from work for a road trip to Virginia. While she was here she decided that she would go to early voting in town. I went with her, not to vote, but just to take a ride in the Jeep truck.
I'm not sure what I expected but not what we found. There were seven places in the county open for early voting and one was in our town community center. Now it was Saturday and I'm sure that had an effect. It was chaos.
There was a line of cars waiting to get into the parking lot which was not only full but had cars parked in illegal spots and others looking for a spot like the mall at Christmas time. To say that the parking area was inadequate would be a gross understatement.
My daughter was a bit nervous about maneuvering the Jeep truck in the tight quarters because she hadn't had the need to do that before.
While we were waiting to get into the lot a woman, complete with a bleached blonde Karen haircut, got out of an Audi in front of us. I didn't think much of it at the time. I figured she was getting out to go vote on foot. Little did I know that this was going to be my first encounter with a Karen in her natural habitat.
We followed the Audi down a row of parked cars in the lot. There were maybe fifteen cars on either side plus a row of cars parked head in at the top of the row with a narrow lane, one car wide, separating the cars at the top of the row from the cars on either side.
The Audi had come to a complete stop, the Karen was standing in a parking space on the top row and another car was in the lane trying to turn into the space. That's when it dawned on me that this woman had gone on foot in search of a parking space to reserve for the Audi.
We were stuck. The Audi was in front of us and another car was behind us. My daughter got out to see what the hold up was.
The hold up was the Karen was refusing to move out of the space and the woman trying to turn into the space wasn't about to give it up. My daughter, naive child, asked if there was a problem because everyone was stuck. The woman in the car said "there wouldn't be any problem if this one would more her fat ass."
At that my daughter said "I don't need this" and beat a hasty retreat back to the Jeep.
At that point the laughing gods decided they had enough amusement for the day and the following occurred.
(1) The driver of the Audi realized someone was trying to get out from a space on the left so he backed up to let the car back out and then took that space.
(2) The Karen, seeing the Audi get a space, surrendered her prize.
(3) The car in the lane took the space that the Karen was trying to save for the Audi.
(4) A car in the top row also left allowing my daughter to simply drive straight into that spot with no awkward maneuvering required.
Sometimes the gods work in mysterious ways.
There was about an hour wait to vote and my daughter's initial reaction was to leave and come back but I convinced her to get it over with give the lucky break with the spot, because I didn't want to anger the fickle gods by spurning their gift, and she had no idea what it would be like later.
I waited outside with my cane and made lots of new friends. I even saw my dentist but he didn't see me. Since this was Northern New Jersey even with the craziness in the parking lot people just laughed it off. Except for the Karen and the woman she was blocking.
It was pretty crazy. I think the craziness was due to there only being a few early voting spots in the county. The rest of us are planning on going Election Day when each town will have its traditional polling place open. But we're planning on going early just in case.
OK, I got lazy or depressed or both this week. I'm two days late with this but things haven't changed much.
Electoral Vote
Trump -278 (+22), Harris - 241 (-10), Toss Up - 19 (-12)
Real Clear Politics
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)
Real Clear Politics - No Tossups
Trump -312 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)
Polling Map
Trump -219 (+1), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (-1)
538 Model
Trump -262 (+16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-27)
JHK Forecasts
Trump -262 (+16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-16)
Polymarket Odds
Trump -312 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)
If anything the election has shifted more in Trump's direction. Electoral Vote now has him winning with 278 electoral votes.
All of the ontological arguments are basically word salads attempting to trick the listener into accepting the argument. That makes them about the most dishonest arguments as well.
As for Godel, his Axioms are a big problem. First of all he never defines what he means by "positive." Some who defend his argument sometimes claim that this doesn't matter but most people disagree. Something that is so central to the argument has to be defined.
Axiom 1: If property A is positive, and if property A entails property B, then B is positive.
Why? Does there never exist a trade-off where one "positive" property requires the acceptance of a "negative" one? How about a military tank with light armor which allows it to move quickly but makes it vulnerable to armor piercing shells?
Axiom 2: If property A is positive, then the property not-A is not positive. So is the property "Red" "positive?" Some people would say so (especially given that Godel never defines "positive), does that make "non-Red" not positive? Or are the property of "Red" and "non-Red" simply neutral? How do we tell if properties are "positive" or simply neutral.
Axiom 3: The property G is a positive property. (G is the property of being "God-like"; an object with property G has all positive properties)
This is total gibberish. Define "God-like" and why must someone with this property have all "positive" properties? Is jealousy a positive property? What about vengefulness?
Axiom 4: If a property is positive, then it is positive in all possible worlds.
Why? There are probably possible worlds where the property of being a Nazi is considered positive because the Germans won WW II while in most worlds the property of being not-Nazi is positive.
Axiom 5: Necessary existence is a positive property.
Again, define "necessary existence" and demonstrate that it must be "positive" whatever the hell positive may be.
Well it's Friday and time to get depressed.
Electoral Vote
Trump -256 (+10), Harris - 251 (+4), Toss Up - 31 (-14)
Real Clear Politics
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)
Real Clear Politics - No Tossups
Trump -312 (+10), Harris - 226 (-10), Toss Up - 0 (NC)
Polling Map
Trump -218 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 94 (NC)
538 Model
Trump -246 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 66 (-27)
JHK Forecasts
Trump -246 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 66 (-27)
Polymarket Odds
Trump -312 (+16), Harris - 226 (-16), Toss Up - 0 (NC)
Like I said last week, I don't even see this being close unless something drastic happens in the next couple of weeks or somehow the polls are all seriously wrong for some reason.
I have run into a lot of nonsense recently claiming that calories don't matter in weight management for various reasons. As an engineer I disagree.
A calorie is by definition a unit of energy. A food calorie is actually a kilocalorie and equivalent to the heat energy needed to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water by 1 °C.So, I've been going to physical therapy for three weeks and it's not high on my lists of things I like to do. Interestingly enough my left knee is giving me more trouble than my broken ankle. The ankle doctor said my right leg would again be my good leg and I think I'm already there. I have two more weeks, four days, of therapy scheduled.
Wearing the brace is much, much better than the boot even though getting in and out of it is a bit of a pain. Still, at least I don't feel wobbly like I did with the boot. I now use a cane rather than the walker except when I'm on the tiles in the play room.
Monday I go for the CT scan and I get the results, and find out what new horrors I'll have to endure, on the 29th. I see the ankle doctor on the 31st. Hopefully I can then dump the physical therapy and the brace.
After we get the right ankle patched up I'll have to decide what do do about the left knee.
The way things are going I might have to start searching for a bridge that I can jump off of.
I've cut the number of sites again to just the ones that seem to regularly update. Besides, I'm becoming convinced that, unless something drastic happens in the next couple of weeks, that Trump is going to easily win this election. I suspect the media is artificially trying to maintain interest by continuing to say how close things are. I don't think they're that close.
Electoral Vote
Trump -246 (-16), Harris - 247 (-29), Toss Up - 45 (+45)
Real Clear Politics
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (NC), Toss Up - 104 (NC)
Real Clear Politics - No Tossups
Trump -302 (+21), Harris - 236 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)
Polling Map
Trump -218 (+30), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 94 (-30)
538 Model
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (-25), Toss Up - 93 (+25)
JHK Forecasts
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (-6), Toss Up - 93 (+6)
Polymarket Odds
Trump -296 (+15), Harris - 242 (-15), Toss Up - 0 (NC)
Again we have a shift towards Trump who clearly has all of the momentum. Add to this that I have always suspected that he will outperform the polls and it tells me that, unless a disaster occurs, Trump will win easily.
Well, it's Friday so time to capture the current numbers.
Same rules, sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.
Electoral Vote
Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-27)
Real Clear Politics
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (-10), Toss Up - 104 (+10)
Real Clear Politics - No Tossups
Trump -281 (+19), Harris - 257 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)
2024 Consensus
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)
Polling Map
Trump -188 (+6), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 124 (-6)
Sabatos Crystal Ball
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)
Cook Political Report
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)
Fox News
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)
Elections Daily
Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)
538 Model
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (+10), Toss Up - 68 (-10)
JHK Forecasts
Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 232 (-9), Toss Up - 87 (+52)
Polymarket Odds
Trump -281 (+19), Harris - 257 (-19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)
Another good week for Trump who clearly appears to have the momentum.
