The 2024 Election, September 27, 2024

 Well, it's Friday so time to capture the current numbers.

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -262 (+26), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 215 (-10), Toss Up - 104 (+10)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -182 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 130 (NC)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (-10), Toss Up - 78 (+10)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+43), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 35 (-43)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 276 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (-6)

Overall a slightly better week for Trump. But it looks like everyone is as unsure as I am about this thing. You can read article from pundits declaring everything from a Trump landslide to a Harris landslide.

I still take the position that Trump wins unless the numbers begin to change dramatically and I don't think that's going to happen.

The 2024 Election, September 21, 2024

Well, it's Saturday (I missed Friday) so time to capture the current numbers.

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -235 (-26), Harris - 276 (-1), Toss Up - 27 (+27)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 225 (+17), Toss Up - 94 (-17)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+19), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -182 (-6), Harris - 226 (+3), Toss Up - 130 (+3)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 251 (+15), Toss Up - 68 (-15)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -219 (-43), Harris - 241 (+15), Toss Up - 78 (+28)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -262 (-19), Harris - 276 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (-6)

I still can't make heads or tails out of this. It could go either way. If I had to bet today I would bet on Trump for three reasons.

(1) Republican voters appear unphased by Trump's increasingly bizarre antics. If Jesus Christ himself were to endorse Harris I suspect they would still vote for the guy with the (R) next to his name.

(2) Trump tends to outperform his polling numbers. We might be looking at a sort of "Trump Effect" where people are embarrassed to admit they're voting for him or are jerking around the pollsters.

(3) I have this suspicion that at the last minute some people are going to balk at voting for a woman.

Medical Issues, September 19th, 2024

 I went back to the orthopedist to see about my broken ankle. I've been wearing this boot on my right ankle and I'd like to strangle the guy that designed it. It's curved front to back and side to side which makes me wobble. I keep feeling like I'm to fall and break my neck.

Going up stairs is OK but coming down I feel like I'm going to go flying because the damn boot is too big for the step.

My big hope was that I could dump the boot and I can, sort of. He told me to get an ankle brace but with no recommendations. Just go to Walgreens he says. 

Well finding an ankle brace turned out to be a little tricky. The one I got at Walgreens didn't work out so I ended up ordering one from Amazon (all hail Amazon, the god of buying stuff). It will be here tomorrow so I have to suffer one more day with the boot.

I also have to wear it when I go out.

But the big crushing blow was him saying that I need to go to physical therapy two or three times a week for 6-8 weeks in order to get my balance back!!!

Get my balance back? My balance would be fine if I wasn't wearing this damn boot.

I also canceled my knee surgery. I can't take the chance of having neither leg useable. So that at least got rid of four appointments. I get to see ankle guy in six weeks. 

The nasty appointment of course is getting the results of the lung CT from the thoracic surgeon. The scan is October 14th and I get the results on October 29th. That's two days before I see the ankle guy again.

The 2024 Election, September 13, 2024

Well, it's Friday again and the debate is over. 

Sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -261 (+31), Harris - 277 (+1), Toss Up - 0 (-32)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -281 (+16), Harris - 257 (-16), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Polling Map

Trump -188 (+40), Harris - 223 (+13), Toss Up - 127 (-53)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -219 (-32), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 78 (+32)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 236 (NC), Toss Up - 83 (NC)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -262 (+27), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (-27)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -281 (-6), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 6 (+6)

Given these numbers one would think that Trump won the debate. Clearly raking Trump over the coals did little or no good for Harris.

The Debate

Well, the debate is over and Harris pretty much made Trump look like a bumbling, incoherent fool.

Just to add to the chaos the ABC hosts fact checked him in real time about his claims of post-birth infanticide and migrants eating pets in Springfield Ohio. 

Trump spewed lie after lie after lie but this time looked mostly like a fool while doing it. His "barbs" bounced off Harris like she was wearing plate armor.

It was delicious.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure that it's going to make much difference.

Trump's voting block is solid and what sane people recognized as bald faced lies Trump voters were probably cheering on as "telling it like it is."

The most we can hope for is the debate will stunt Trump's recent momentum and hopefully reverse it but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

The 2024 Election, September 6, 2024

 Another Friday and another update. The big story recently has been that Nat Silver has declared that Trump has a 58% chance of winning to Harris' 41%. All of the ring wing news outlets have been running hard with this story. Personally, I'm not that impressed with Silver's model.

Again sites that haven't updated this week will be in italics.

Electoral Vote

Trump -230 (-11), Harris - 276 (-16), Toss Up - 32 (+16)

Real Clear Politics

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 208 (NC), Toss Up - 111 (NC)

Real Clear Politics - No Tossups

Trump -265 (-3), Harris - 273 (+3), Toss Up - 0

2024 Consensus

Trump -219 (-16), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (+16)

Polling Map

Trump -148 (-70), Harris - 210 (NC), Toss Up - 180 (+70)

Sabatos Crystal Ball

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Cook Political Report

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)

Fox News

Trump -251 (NC), Harris - 241 (NC), Toss Up - 46 (NC)

Elections Daily

Trump -235 (NC, Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

538 Model

Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 236 (-15), Toss Up - 83 (+15)

JHK Forecasts

Trump -235 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 77 (NC)

Polymarket Odds

Trump -287 (NC), Harris - 251 (NC), Toss Up - 0 (NC)

The big drop in Trump votes in the polling map comes from Texas and Florida going to undecided but I don't believe that for one second.

Everything else shows a tightening race. Looks like Harris' honeymoon period is over and things are setting back down. The debate is scheduled for September 10th and might be the deciding factor. I suppose we shall see what we shall see.