Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Election 2016

I've decided to expand my tracking of the election a bit to include Real Clear Politics and the current betting markets. I'll try to do updates Wednesday and Saturday until we get closer to the election.
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 77.6%, Trump - 22.4% - No change.
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 87.4%, Trump - 12.5% - Trump +0.3
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 88.2%, Trump - 11.8% - Trump +2.6

Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton +6.0
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 272, Trump - 154. Undecided - 112

Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .75, Trump .24

There's still a long way to go and I expect the race to tighten as we move forward. Enthusiasm for Clinton isn't terribly strong and that's what gives Trump a chance although it's hard to believe that someone who has said as many stupid things as him is still in the race.

He also continues to demonstrate he's awful at picking advisers. This was something that was a Ronald Reagan strong point. He also continues to demonstrate an unwillingness to learn from the experts believing himself to be the ultimate expert on everything.

The combination of these two things is incredibly dangerous.

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