Saturday, August 13, 2016

Divided we Stand?

That we are a nation with fairly deep divides is not a secret. I think it's safe to say it has always been that way. But what has changed recently is the willingness of the political elite to use those divisions against us

In September of 2009 considering the widening of the gap between a left shifting Democratic Party and a right shifting Republican Party I predicted:

"It would be only a matter of time before one side or the other manages to elect a president that is totally unacceptable to the other side."

Welcome to 2016.

Trump is breaking all sorts of rules. He is pandering to the stupidity of his base and doing everything feasible to undermine the legitimacy of his losing the election in November.

He is outright declaring that if he loses it can only be because the election was rigged; he has hinted that violence might be necessary if Clinton wins.

His latest call is for "polling observers" which sound a lot like brown shirts to intimidate voters.

That it is still quite possible that he will win this election is mind boggling.

I'm going to follow for the rest of the time to the election. They're using three models this time around. A "Polls Only" model which is the same as the one used in 2008. A "Polls Plus" model which adds economic and historical factors and a "Now-cast" which considers who would win if the election were held immediately.

All three provide probability of winning numbers.

August 13, 2016

Polls Plus Model  - Clinton - 77.6%, Trump - 22.4%
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 87.8%, Trump - 12.2%
Now-cast Model   - Clinton - 90.8%, Trump -  9.2%

But, of course, according to Trump and his Trumpettes these number are all lies anyway or based upon phony poll numbers. It's all a big conspiracy.

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