Saturday, August 27, 2016

Election 2016 IV

My how time flies. Time for the Saturday update already? Perhaps I should cut this down to once a week?
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 73.6%, Trump - 26.4% - Trump +2.4
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 81.4%, Trump - 18.5% - Trump +3.3
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 81.5%, Trump - 18.5% - Trump +6.0

Real Clear Politics 
Popular Vote - Clinton 48.4%, Trump 42.1%, Clinton +6.3 - Clinton +0.9
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 272, Trump - 154. Undecided - 112 - No change.

Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .72, Trump .28 - Clinton No Change, Trump No Change

The only real major shift is in the models and that's primarily because Arizona and Georgia appear to have shifted into the Trump column according to their models.

It's interesting how different prediction sites have slightly different takes on where some states will end up.

The latest buzzword is "Alt. Right" and the two candidates have taken to calling each other names. That doesn't strike me as terribly useful but I learned time ago that you don't get elected based upon facts. You get elected based upon how much emotion you can stir up.

Hey. I'm not immune to that either. I just get concerned that someday a candidate is going to unleash forces he can't control. Trump is coming close. He's simply too stupid to realize how idiotic some of his supporter are.

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