Saturday, August 20, 2016

Election 2016 II

Time for the Saturday update.

fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 75.2%, Trump - 24.8% - Trump +2.4
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 85.7%, Trump - 14.2% - Trump +1.7
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 87.1%, Trump - 12.8% - Trump +1.0

Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton +5.7 - Trump +0.3
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 272, Trump - 154. Undecided - 112 - No change.

Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .71, Trump .31 - Clinton -.04, Trump +.07

So a slight tightening of the race as Trump hasn't said anything excruciatingly stupid this week. In the meantime new campaign leadership is attempting a reboot of his campaign and making it look more like a normal political campaign.

I want to see his tax returns. There's no reason not to release them.

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