So where are we after the oral arguments?
If you listen to the media, the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) will be declared unconstitutional and either the defenders of Prop 8 will be declared to have no standing or the court will let the appellate court decision stand.
I agree on DOMA. The court will strike it down and leave the definition of who's married to the states. I also believe they will leave the definition of who can marry to the states. This will allow both sides to declare victory.
As for Prop 8, I still think the court is going to revert back to the California Supreme Court decision and leave Prop 8 in place. If for some reason they decide not to do that, they'll declare the supporters to have no standing which would leave Prop 8 overturned but would not force the court to address the larger issues.
Again this would allow both sides to declare victory as the court would not be forced to resolve the question of Gay Marriage protection under the 14th Amendment.
The Religious Right is going absolutely off the deep end over this issue and are howling bloody murder that the mainstream media is essentially leading a propaganda campaign in favor of Gay Marriage.
Yeah, they're right about that one. It's called editorializing and newspapers, radio stations and TV stations tend to do that. It's part of the media charter to inform the electorate.
This court is not ready to make a sweeping decision in favor of Gay Marriage but I don't think Roberts is going to tempt his place in history by attempting to roll back the clock either. I still think it will be a compromise that satisfies no one.