And now for a completely unscientific analysis.
In my experience I have found that there are two main categories of Trumpettes.
Category #1 — The Greedy. These are people who make a lot of money. They work hard and either through talent or luck have managed to place themselves in a position of wealth. These folks don’t like paying taxes and they don’t like it even more than the rest of us don’t like it because they think their money is going to help people too lazy to work for themselves.
They think they should pay a smaller share of taxes even though they benefit from government activity far more than people of more modest means. If nothing else they have more to lose. When I talk to these people I can’t help thinking of the Phil Ochs song “The Ringing of Revolution.”
“In a building of gold, with riches untold,
lived the families on which the country was founded.
And the merchants of style, with their vain velvet smiles,
were there, for they also were hounded.
And the soft middle class crowded in to the last,
for the building was fully surrounded.
And the noise outside was the ringing of revolution.”
Category #2 — The Spiteful. These are your uneducated white working and lower middle class folks who struggle to pay the mortgage, put food on the table and meet unexpected bills yet they have enough money to buy guns, cigarettes and cases of beer on a regular basis.
They claim to be highly religious but if they ever met the real Yeshua bar Yosef they would be horrified at both his appearance and his ideas.
They think Christianity is under attack by the universities and educated people in the cities and suburbs. To a certain extent they’re right about this but they don’t understand why that’s the case. They don’t understand that hostility to religion is a backlash from Christians trying to impose their religious beliefs on everyone else whether it’s abortion restrictions or raising massive stone tablets of the 10 Commandments on public grounds.
These people look around and think they see blacks, Hispanics, immigrants and basically everyone but them being helped by handouts from the government using their hard earned tax dollars. These people will vote for anyone who will put THOSE PEOPLE in their place even if it means hurting themselves.
Like I said, this is an entirely unscientific analysis based upon my own observations and probably significantly colored by my own prejudices. But I don’t apologize for that. People in these two categories are never going to see the farce and danger the rest of the world sees. One group is blinded by their greed and the other by their hate.
Monday, July 10, 2017
Sunday, July 02, 2017
The Obama Economy
It never cease to amaze me when people talk about how horrible the economy was under Obama. The latest criticism had to do with the fact that the number of people within 125% of the poverty line increased under the Obama presidency while real income declined.
They manage this slight of hand by comparing the numbers from 2007, BEFORE the great recession to the numbers near the end of the Obama presidency in 2015 while ignoring everything that happened in between.
If you think the economic meltdown under Bush had nothing to do with those numbers then you need to have your head examined.
The percentage of people below 125% of the poverty level in 2007 was 17.0%. Thanks to the 2008 Great Recession the number ballooned to 19.8% in 2011 and then dropped to 17.9% by 2015. Looks to me like Bush was the problem and Obama was the solution.
Now let's look at real income. The real median household income in the US in 2007 was $57,423. Again, thanks to the Great Recession it dropped to $52,666 in 2012 but by 2015 it was back up to $56,516. So again, the problem was Bush and the solution was Obama. Rather than bad mouthing the man based upon no facts, maybe next time people should check where the real problem was.
When Obama took office the stock market was at 9,000, unemployment was at 10%, the economy was SHRINKING and the deficit was over $1 trillion. When he left office the stock market was over 19,000 (Nov 2016), unemployment was down to 4.7%, the economy was growing and the deficit had been reduced to around $570 billion.
All of this while avoiding a double-dip recession.
They manage this slight of hand by comparing the numbers from 2007, BEFORE the great recession to the numbers near the end of the Obama presidency in 2015 while ignoring everything that happened in between.
If you think the economic meltdown under Bush had nothing to do with those numbers then you need to have your head examined.
The percentage of people below 125% of the poverty level in 2007 was 17.0%. Thanks to the 2008 Great Recession the number ballooned to 19.8% in 2011 and then dropped to 17.9% by 2015. Looks to me like Bush was the problem and Obama was the solution.
Now let's look at real income. The real median household income in the US in 2007 was $57,423. Again, thanks to the Great Recession it dropped to $52,666 in 2012 but by 2015 it was back up to $56,516. So again, the problem was Bush and the solution was Obama. Rather than bad mouthing the man based upon no facts, maybe next time people should check where the real problem was.
When Obama took office the stock market was at 9,000, unemployment was at 10%, the economy was SHRINKING and the deficit was over $1 trillion. When he left office the stock market was over 19,000 (Nov 2016), unemployment was down to 4.7%, the economy was growing and the deficit had been reduced to around $570 billion.
All of this while avoiding a double-dip recession.
Wednesday, June 14, 2017
Trump and Comey and Sessions OH MY!
Watching this soap opera unfold in the Senate is an absolute joke. Basically everyone says everyone else is lying. Of course Trump can't make up his mind whether Comey "vindicated" him or told terrible lies about him.
Sessions say the whole Russian collusion idea is a lie. Well, Jeff baby, it's only a lie if the person making the accusation knows it's a lie.
What to make of this he said, he said, he said fiasco?
It's generally been my experience that people lie when either they (a) can gain something from the lie or (b) they need to protect themselves. I think we can pretty much exclude the altruistic white lie from the conversation.
The guy that appears to have the least to gain or protect is Comey. That doesn't mean he isn't lying but it's not clear to me what reason he would have for opening himself up to perjury charges.
Trump isn't making his statements under oath and I'm not sure Sessions knows the difference between a lie and the truth.
So I sort of suspect that Comey is closest to being completely honest, Sessions is a distant second and Trump still trying to get out of the starting gate.
Do I think Trump is guilty of obstruction of justice in the Flynn investigation? Yes, I do. Do I think he meant to obstruct justice? No, I think he was simply doing the same sort of backroom maneuvering he's used to in the business world and didn't realize what he was doing was illegal.
Do I think the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians to tilt the 2016 election to Trump? Six months ago I would have said that's ridiculous but now I'm not so sure.
So what happens if that turns out to be the case? The proper thing to do would be for Trump and Pence to resign or be impeached leaving Paul Ryan as president.
Do I think that will ever happen? Not in a million years. Even if you could come up with sufficient evidence I'm sure the Republicans would come up with some "alternate facts" to try and smooth the whole thing over.
Do I think this could lead to civil war? Probably not. I don't think enough people are ready to start killing in the streets over this.
Sessions say the whole Russian collusion idea is a lie. Well, Jeff baby, it's only a lie if the person making the accusation knows it's a lie.
What to make of this he said, he said, he said fiasco?
It's generally been my experience that people lie when either they (a) can gain something from the lie or (b) they need to protect themselves. I think we can pretty much exclude the altruistic white lie from the conversation.
The guy that appears to have the least to gain or protect is Comey. That doesn't mean he isn't lying but it's not clear to me what reason he would have for opening himself up to perjury charges.
Trump isn't making his statements under oath and I'm not sure Sessions knows the difference between a lie and the truth.
So I sort of suspect that Comey is closest to being completely honest, Sessions is a distant second and Trump still trying to get out of the starting gate.
Do I think Trump is guilty of obstruction of justice in the Flynn investigation? Yes, I do. Do I think he meant to obstruct justice? No, I think he was simply doing the same sort of backroom maneuvering he's used to in the business world and didn't realize what he was doing was illegal.
Do I think the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians to tilt the 2016 election to Trump? Six months ago I would have said that's ridiculous but now I'm not so sure.
So what happens if that turns out to be the case? The proper thing to do would be for Trump and Pence to resign or be impeached leaving Paul Ryan as president.
Do I think that will ever happen? Not in a million years. Even if you could come up with sufficient evidence I'm sure the Republicans would come up with some "alternate facts" to try and smooth the whole thing over.
Do I think this could lead to civil war? Probably not. I don't think enough people are ready to start killing in the streets over this.
Sunday, June 04, 2017
The Paris Accords on Climate
I never learn. Seriously, I never learn. I always assume that people actually understand what a thing is before deciding whether it's a good witch or a bad witch.
After going though a few comment sections on the Paris Accords it was obvious that no one, including Trump and his "advisers," had any idea what was in the agreement.
First, allow me to identify what is an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution or INDC. An INDC is the amount of emission reduction that a country VOLUNTARILY establishes as a target in order to meet the stated goals in the agreement of (1) staying below an average temperature gain of 2 degrees C or (2) staying below an average temperature gain of 1.5 degrees C.
Switzerland was the first country to submit an INDC calling for a reduction of 50% of emissions over the 2005 level by 2030.
India's INDC called for a 33%-35% reduction per unit of GDP by 2030 but warned it would need $2.5 trillion in financing to meet that goal.
China's INDC called for a 60%-65% reduction per unit of GDP by 2030.
The US INDC called for a 26%-28% reduction of green house gases over the 2005 levels by 2025.
However notice the slight problem here. Different INDCs are specifying targets in different ways.
Switzerland and the USA are specifying their targets in total reduction of green house gases (GHG). China and India are specifying their targets per unit of GDP which means their total emissions may actually increase.
Why the difference?
Because while Switzerland and the USA are "developed countries" by the United Nations definition, China and India are considered "developing countries" whose GDP per capita is still a fraction of the GDP per capita of developed countries,
So basically that's the problem that people express in different ways. I'm more than a little terrified that EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt doesn't appear to have a clue as to not only the details of the Paris Accords but even as to who emits the most GHG.
Who emits the most you ask? It depends upon how you're measuring. You can measure either as total emissions or emissions per capita.
In total emissions China is first followed by the US then the European Union and then India, In terms of emissions per capita the US is larger than China and India combined but I think total emissions is the more important way to measure.
And China is a real problem. Its total emissions of 10 millions kilotons of CO2 is twice the US total of 5 million kilotons. Yet as a "developing country" China will do no more than stop the increase of CO2 per year by 2030.
The assumption is that developed countries have the technological base to do more in a shorter period of time. The Obama administration has made the right moves for the US to meet its INDC by 2025.
With Trump trying to resurrect the dead coal industry and allowing the initiatives of the Obama Administration to wither, there's not a snowball's chance in hell.
This may well turn out to be the stupidest decision ever made by a so-called President of the United States. Luckily states and cities in the US are moving forward and essentially saying fuck you Trump.
It's only a matter of time before a Trumpian pronouncement forces some of the states to refuse to implement or enforce what he's ordering. If Trump then tries to force the issue all hell will break loose.
After going though a few comment sections on the Paris Accords it was obvious that no one, including Trump and his "advisers," had any idea what was in the agreement.
First, allow me to identify what is an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution or INDC. An INDC is the amount of emission reduction that a country VOLUNTARILY establishes as a target in order to meet the stated goals in the agreement of (1) staying below an average temperature gain of 2 degrees C or (2) staying below an average temperature gain of 1.5 degrees C.
Switzerland was the first country to submit an INDC calling for a reduction of 50% of emissions over the 2005 level by 2030.
India's INDC called for a 33%-35% reduction per unit of GDP by 2030 but warned it would need $2.5 trillion in financing to meet that goal.
China's INDC called for a 60%-65% reduction per unit of GDP by 2030.
The US INDC called for a 26%-28% reduction of green house gases over the 2005 levels by 2025.
However notice the slight problem here. Different INDCs are specifying targets in different ways.
Switzerland and the USA are specifying their targets in total reduction of green house gases (GHG). China and India are specifying their targets per unit of GDP which means their total emissions may actually increase.
Why the difference?
Because while Switzerland and the USA are "developed countries" by the United Nations definition, China and India are considered "developing countries" whose GDP per capita is still a fraction of the GDP per capita of developed countries,
So basically that's the problem that people express in different ways. I'm more than a little terrified that EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt doesn't appear to have a clue as to not only the details of the Paris Accords but even as to who emits the most GHG.
Who emits the most you ask? It depends upon how you're measuring. You can measure either as total emissions or emissions per capita.
In total emissions China is first followed by the US then the European Union and then India, In terms of emissions per capita the US is larger than China and India combined but I think total emissions is the more important way to measure.
And China is a real problem. Its total emissions of 10 millions kilotons of CO2 is twice the US total of 5 million kilotons. Yet as a "developing country" China will do no more than stop the increase of CO2 per year by 2030.
The assumption is that developed countries have the technological base to do more in a shorter period of time. The Obama administration has made the right moves for the US to meet its INDC by 2025.
With Trump trying to resurrect the dead coal industry and allowing the initiatives of the Obama Administration to wither, there's not a snowball's chance in hell.
This may well turn out to be the stupidest decision ever made by a so-called President of the United States. Luckily states and cities in the US are moving forward and essentially saying fuck you Trump.
It's only a matter of time before a Trumpian pronouncement forces some of the states to refuse to implement or enforce what he's ordering. If Trump then tries to force the issue all hell will break loose.
Thursday, June 01, 2017
Trump Pulls out of Paris Accords
President Trump has announced that he intends to pull out of the Paris Accords on climate.
If you needed any additional evidence that Trump in particular, and Republicans in general, care absolutely nothing for the country, the planet and the people living on the planet this should do it.
This is a pure play to the under 80 IQ trailer part set. This is beyond stupid; this borders on criminal.
The science on climate change is very clear despite what some conservative pundits try to claim. It's not that hard to understand.
By digging up fossil fuels such as oil and coal, and burning them, we have added to the carbon cycle by putting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Add to that deforestation and the cutting down of rain forests, which decreases the amount of carbon dioxide being taken out of the atmosphere, and you get a slow but steady build up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
This is clear from measurements.
Carbon dioxide is a hothouse gas. It tends to hold in heat. This is leading to a slow but steady rise in global temperatures. The rise in global temperatures is leading to melting icecaps, rising sea levels and shifting climate.
Everyone in the world appears to understand this except Trump. the Republicans, Syria and Nicaragua.
If you needed any additional evidence that Trump in particular, and Republicans in general, care absolutely nothing for the country, the planet and the people living on the planet this should do it.
This is a pure play to the under 80 IQ trailer part set. This is beyond stupid; this borders on criminal.
The science on climate change is very clear despite what some conservative pundits try to claim. It's not that hard to understand.
By digging up fossil fuels such as oil and coal, and burning them, we have added to the carbon cycle by putting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Add to that deforestation and the cutting down of rain forests, which decreases the amount of carbon dioxide being taken out of the atmosphere, and you get a slow but steady build up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
This is clear from measurements.
Carbon dioxide is a hothouse gas. It tends to hold in heat. This is leading to a slow but steady rise in global temperatures. The rise in global temperatures is leading to melting icecaps, rising sea levels and shifting climate.
Everyone in the world appears to understand this except Trump. the Republicans, Syria and Nicaragua.
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Trump's Budget Growth Assumptions
All budgets make assumptions about anticipated growth and the Trump budget proposal is no different. They're assuming a 3%-4% growth rate long term.
Most economists think that's unrealistic.
Trump budget director Mick Mulvaney, rather than DEFENDING their assumptions. attacked the growth assumptions the Obama administration made in sort of a macabre tu quoque pastiche.
The Obama administration assumptions were in line with so-called economic wisdom at the time and after a short 3%-4% recovery phase estimated a long term growth in the 2%-2.4% range.
These numbers also lined up with the CBO estimates because historically the US economy has rebounded for a short period at about double the depression rate before settling into a more modest long term growth.
To put it bluntly, they were wrong. Growth was only about 2% average coming out of the recession. Why? Because economics is one part mathematics, one part black magic and one part confidence and the nation never really recovered its confidence in the economy because the "recovery" was so uneven. Some areas recovered quickly and other areas can justifiable ask "what recovery?"
Now the Trump administration is assuming 3%-4% SUSTAINED growth, which is much more optimistic than anything the Obama administration ever assumed, without providing any justification beyond we're going to cut taxes and then a miracle will happen.
Most economists think that's unrealistic.
Trump budget director Mick Mulvaney, rather than DEFENDING their assumptions. attacked the growth assumptions the Obama administration made in sort of a macabre tu quoque pastiche.
The Obama administration assumptions were in line with so-called economic wisdom at the time and after a short 3%-4% recovery phase estimated a long term growth in the 2%-2.4% range.
These numbers also lined up with the CBO estimates because historically the US economy has rebounded for a short period at about double the depression rate before settling into a more modest long term growth.
To put it bluntly, they were wrong. Growth was only about 2% average coming out of the recession. Why? Because economics is one part mathematics, one part black magic and one part confidence and the nation never really recovered its confidence in the economy because the "recovery" was so uneven. Some areas recovered quickly and other areas can justifiable ask "what recovery?"
Now the Trump administration is assuming 3%-4% SUSTAINED growth, which is much more optimistic than anything the Obama administration ever assumed, without providing any justification beyond we're going to cut taxes and then a miracle will happen.
Trump's Budget Proposal
Basically the proposal calls for slashing just about every social safety net including Medicaid, SNAP and Social Security Disability while increasing defense spending by some $50 billion, increasing the Homeland Security budget and allocated a few billion for that stupid wall.
The budget also calls for significant cuts in almost every department including the EPA and the Department of State.
Let me start by saying that I'm am absolutely in favor of a balanced budget. As a matter of fact after the budget is balanced I would like to pare the debt a little bit year by year until it gets to a more manageable level.
But now the question becomes who pays for balancing the budget and trimming the debt? Apparently the Republicans believe that the most vulnerable people in our society are the ones that should pay because, by some incredibly twisted logic, they seem to think that the poor, the elderly and the disabled have somehow benefited the most from our overspending while the rich and powerful not only haven't benefited but have been stoically footing the bill.
How do you think these folks got wealthy? By being taken advantage of or by benefiting from the overspending that has occurred?
We all know it's the latter so now that the time has come to pay the piper, how about we ask those who can most afford it and have benefited the most from the splurging to carry most of the burden.
I'm willing to kick in a few more shekels to help balance the budget but NOT to finance another $50 billion in military spending or to build a silly wall because El Jefe in Washington has to throw lots of scraps and raw meat to those who financed his campaign.
The budget also calls for significant cuts in almost every department including the EPA and the Department of State.
Let me start by saying that I'm am absolutely in favor of a balanced budget. As a matter of fact after the budget is balanced I would like to pare the debt a little bit year by year until it gets to a more manageable level.
But now the question becomes who pays for balancing the budget and trimming the debt? Apparently the Republicans believe that the most vulnerable people in our society are the ones that should pay because, by some incredibly twisted logic, they seem to think that the poor, the elderly and the disabled have somehow benefited the most from our overspending while the rich and powerful not only haven't benefited but have been stoically footing the bill.
How do you think these folks got wealthy? By being taken advantage of or by benefiting from the overspending that has occurred?
We all know it's the latter so now that the time has come to pay the piper, how about we ask those who can most afford it and have benefited the most from the splurging to carry most of the burden.
I'm willing to kick in a few more shekels to help balance the budget but NOT to finance another $50 billion in military spending or to build a silly wall because El Jefe in Washington has to throw lots of scraps and raw meat to those who financed his campaign.
Thursday, May 18, 2017
Roger Ailes is Dead
I was wondering why the air smelled better this morning. Then I found out that Roger Ailes had died which solved the mystery.
Ailes was an evil man. He wasn't on the scale of a Hitler or a Stalin perhaps but the damage he's done with the innuendo laced, accurate but misleading and outright lying format that still dominates Fox News probably won't be repaired for decades and may never be repaired.
Fox News is not a news station. It's a Right Wing propaganda outlet and needs to be viewed that way.
Allow me to provide a recent example and explain exactly what Fox is doing.
In Mid-March two young men in Maryland, 17 and 18 years old, were accused of raping a 14 year-old female classmate in a bathroom stall at their high school.
One of those young men was an undocumented immigrant.
That was all it took, simply an accusation, for Fox News, in the person of Tucker Carlson, to go all beast mode on illegal immigration. Carlson claimed that city officials “don’t want to think about the connection illegal immigration might have to this crime or others like it.”
Carlson's conclusion about the case was “This is insanity, of course, a sign of a sick civilization at war with itself. A strong country enforces its laws and protects its citizens. That’s Job One. In the U.S., too often we ignore our own laws and allow ruin to be visited on our own people.”
Now, notice two things, first he is assuming the boys are guilty even though he interviewed their lawyer who told him the sex was consensual. Carlson's response was to badger the attorney saying “You’d better be right about this because if you’re going to be impugning the character of a 14-year-old girl who says she was raped — other people said they heard her screams.”
Second, notice that he is introducing things that may or may not be true as facts. (1) Illegal immigration has a significant connection to crime. (2) City officials don't want to think about that. (3) People heard the girl scream. (4) In the US we ignore our own laws. (5) You're in danger because these things allow "ruin to be visited on our own people."
All of these things are asserted as facts with no justification, no evidence and no dissenting opinion. A lot of people are going to walk away from this barrage believing all of this crap.
Meanwhile, back in Maryland, the charges against the two boys were dropped because as the county prosecutor put it, “The facts of this case do not support the original charges filed."
Now Fox News wasn't the only Right Wing outlet jumping to conclusions but they were probably heard by the most people and did the most damage.
So, they're going to issue a retraction right? ****crickets****
Ailes was an evil man. He wasn't on the scale of a Hitler or a Stalin perhaps but the damage he's done with the innuendo laced, accurate but misleading and outright lying format that still dominates Fox News probably won't be repaired for decades and may never be repaired.
Fox News is not a news station. It's a Right Wing propaganda outlet and needs to be viewed that way.
Allow me to provide a recent example and explain exactly what Fox is doing.
In Mid-March two young men in Maryland, 17 and 18 years old, were accused of raping a 14 year-old female classmate in a bathroom stall at their high school.
One of those young men was an undocumented immigrant.
That was all it took, simply an accusation, for Fox News, in the person of Tucker Carlson, to go all beast mode on illegal immigration. Carlson claimed that city officials “don’t want to think about the connection illegal immigration might have to this crime or others like it.”
Carlson's conclusion about the case was “This is insanity, of course, a sign of a sick civilization at war with itself. A strong country enforces its laws and protects its citizens. That’s Job One. In the U.S., too often we ignore our own laws and allow ruin to be visited on our own people.”
Now, notice two things, first he is assuming the boys are guilty even though he interviewed their lawyer who told him the sex was consensual. Carlson's response was to badger the attorney saying “You’d better be right about this because if you’re going to be impugning the character of a 14-year-old girl who says she was raped — other people said they heard her screams.”
Second, notice that he is introducing things that may or may not be true as facts. (1) Illegal immigration has a significant connection to crime. (2) City officials don't want to think about that. (3) People heard the girl scream. (4) In the US we ignore our own laws. (5) You're in danger because these things allow "ruin to be visited on our own people."
All of these things are asserted as facts with no justification, no evidence and no dissenting opinion. A lot of people are going to walk away from this barrage believing all of this crap.
Meanwhile, back in Maryland, the charges against the two boys were dropped because as the county prosecutor put it, “The facts of this case do not support the original charges filed."
Now Fox News wasn't the only Right Wing outlet jumping to conclusions but they were probably heard by the most people and did the most damage.
So, they're going to issue a retraction right? ****crickets****
Wednesday, May 17, 2017
DOJ Appoints Special Counsel
The Trump administration appointed former FBI Director Robert Mueller Friday evening as a special counsel to oversee the federal investigation into allegations Russia and Donald Trump's campaign collaborated to influence the 2016 presidential election.
This is precisely the right thing to do.
We need to get this resolved one way or the other and Mueller is clearly qualified to head the investigation.
Everyone should be happy with this move which is the first intelligent thing Trump has done since taking office.
I suspect he's learning that you can't steamroll things. That's probably a good thing.
This is precisely the right thing to do.
We need to get this resolved one way or the other and Mueller is clearly qualified to head the investigation.
Everyone should be happy with this move which is the first intelligent thing Trump has done since taking office.
I suspect he's learning that you can't steamroll things. That's probably a good thing.
Monday, May 15, 2017
May Gallup Poll
The folks over at Gallup have provided us some interesting numbers in their May poll on social issues.
The first is a record high number of Americans saying Gay Marriage should be legal at a whopping 64%. When Gallup first started asking the question in 1996 only 27% supported it.
The support for same sex relations has also climbed to 72%. I hear NOM has a financial crisis. If so, then given these numbers it's not going to get better any time soon.
Democrats support Gay Marriage by 74%, Independents by 71% and even Republicans are figuring it out as support among the GOP has inched up to 47%.
The second interesting tidbit is that for the first time more people view the Bible as "a book of fables, legends, history and moral precepts recorded by man" than as the literal word of God by 26% to 24%. Most of the middle group still think it's "inspired by God" at 47%.
Men, at 36%, are more likely to consider it a book of fables than women at 24%. College graduates at 36% are more skeptical than those with no college at 19%.
The younger you are the more likely you'll view the Bible as a group of fables. Of those 18-29, 33% viewed it skeptically and of those 30-49 33% viewed it skeptically.
Well, that's a start but we still have a long way to go.
The first is a record high number of Americans saying Gay Marriage should be legal at a whopping 64%. When Gallup first started asking the question in 1996 only 27% supported it.
The support for same sex relations has also climbed to 72%. I hear NOM has a financial crisis. If so, then given these numbers it's not going to get better any time soon.
Democrats support Gay Marriage by 74%, Independents by 71% and even Republicans are figuring it out as support among the GOP has inched up to 47%.
The second interesting tidbit is that for the first time more people view the Bible as "a book of fables, legends, history and moral precepts recorded by man" than as the literal word of God by 26% to 24%. Most of the middle group still think it's "inspired by God" at 47%.
Men, at 36%, are more likely to consider it a book of fables than women at 24%. College graduates at 36% are more skeptical than those with no college at 19%.
The younger you are the more likely you'll view the Bible as a group of fables. Of those 18-29, 33% viewed it skeptically and of those 30-49 33% viewed it skeptically.
Well, that's a start but we still have a long way to go.
Saturday, May 13, 2017
Trump's Tax Plan
Rational analysis says Obama did a pretty good job. He took an economy from the brink of disaster and brought it back to pretty decent health yet the Right Wing decries the "anemic growth rate" of "only" 1%-2%.
Which is a whole lot better than shrinking which is what we had at the end of the Bush years. Obama took a low risk approach and got modest results.
Trump and the supply side Republicans are going to take a high risk with massive tax cuts. Of course most of those tax cuts will be going to the very wealthy and to corporations rather than to where it should be going.
If you want to grow the economy you need to do it from the bottom up. Put more money into the hand of low and middle income who have a high mean propensity to consume. In other words, they're going to spend the money.
Supply follows demand. Without new demand there is no particular reason for companies to expand. If the corporate tax rate is low, there is no particular reason for companies to re-invest. It's more attractive to take the profits.
There is a theory that corporate tax cuts give a short lived boost to the economy but ultimately lead to an economic crash for that very reason. Companies tend to take profits rather than reinvest.
Trump and the Republicans keep pointing to Ronald Reagan as an example of the success of tax cuts.
There are three fundamental problems with this analogy.
(1) Reagan had a very different economy. Inflation was at 11% and unemployment rate was 9%. The current economy has an inflation rate around 2% and the unemployment rate is at 4.4%.
(2) Another ignored tidbit is that while there were two tax adjustments during the Reagan years there was also a major increase in payroll taxes, the closing of a large number of tax loopholes and a $400 billion increase in spending from $745 billion to $1.14 trillion. Reagan didn't just slash taxes like Trump seems to want to do.
(3) Reagan had first Donald Regan and then James Baker as secretaries of the treasury AND they worked closely with congress in particular senators Jack Kemp (R) from New York and Bill Bradley (D) from New Jersey.
In other words Reagan had very good advisers and people working on the tax changes.
Steve Mnuchin is either a clown who honestly believes that manufacturing plants aren't going to be highly automated (read that run by robots) or he's a crook who's bullshitting everyone and is waiting to grab his bag of cash and bolt.
Needless to say I'm concerned about what this tax plan is going to look like. I'm betting the rich get a lot richer and the rest of us get squat. I could be wrong but I doubt it.
Which is a whole lot better than shrinking which is what we had at the end of the Bush years. Obama took a low risk approach and got modest results.
Trump and the supply side Republicans are going to take a high risk with massive tax cuts. Of course most of those tax cuts will be going to the very wealthy and to corporations rather than to where it should be going.
If you want to grow the economy you need to do it from the bottom up. Put more money into the hand of low and middle income who have a high mean propensity to consume. In other words, they're going to spend the money.
Supply follows demand. Without new demand there is no particular reason for companies to expand. If the corporate tax rate is low, there is no particular reason for companies to re-invest. It's more attractive to take the profits.
There is a theory that corporate tax cuts give a short lived boost to the economy but ultimately lead to an economic crash for that very reason. Companies tend to take profits rather than reinvest.
Trump and the Republicans keep pointing to Ronald Reagan as an example of the success of tax cuts.
There are three fundamental problems with this analogy.
(1) Reagan had a very different economy. Inflation was at 11% and unemployment rate was 9%. The current economy has an inflation rate around 2% and the unemployment rate is at 4.4%.
(2) Another ignored tidbit is that while there were two tax adjustments during the Reagan years there was also a major increase in payroll taxes, the closing of a large number of tax loopholes and a $400 billion increase in spending from $745 billion to $1.14 trillion. Reagan didn't just slash taxes like Trump seems to want to do.
(3) Reagan had first Donald Regan and then James Baker as secretaries of the treasury AND they worked closely with congress in particular senators Jack Kemp (R) from New York and Bill Bradley (D) from New Jersey.
In other words Reagan had very good advisers and people working on the tax changes.
Steve Mnuchin is either a clown who honestly believes that manufacturing plants aren't going to be highly automated (read that run by robots) or he's a crook who's bullshitting everyone and is waiting to grab his bag of cash and bolt.
Needless to say I'm concerned about what this tax plan is going to look like. I'm betting the rich get a lot richer and the rest of us get squat. I could be wrong but I doubt it.
Partisanship run amok
Donald Trump could cure cancer, end poverty and insure world peace and the Democrats would still criticize him.
Donald Trump could rape a 12 year old, nuke Iran and North Korea and steal half the treasury in broad daylight and his Republican and Evangelical Christian supporters would still support him.
Things have gotten so polarized that people aren't considering WHAT. All they're considering is WHO.
If the other side does it then it's bad. If our side does it then it's good is NOT a rational approach to anything.
Donald Trump could rape a 12 year old, nuke Iran and North Korea and steal half the treasury in broad daylight and his Republican and Evangelical Christian supporters would still support him.
Things have gotten so polarized that people aren't considering WHAT. All they're considering is WHO.
If the other side does it then it's bad. If our side does it then it's good is NOT a rational approach to anything.
Trump three months later
I haven't changed my mind. He continues to be self centered, immature, delusional and a lousy judge of character.
If there is one aspect of his personality that is most frightening it's his refusal to even consider that some claim he's made could ever be wrong regardless of the amount of evidence demonstrating that he is wrong.
The latest nonsense is he's going forward with a special investigation into voter fraud despite zero evidence that there is any.
Worse he's picked Chris Kobach from Kansas for the panel who has made a career out of figuring out ways to disenfranchise voters.
This sets up the suspicion that the panel is actually being tasked with manufacturing evidence rather than performing a real investigation.
If there is one aspect of his personality that is most frightening it's his refusal to even consider that some claim he's made could ever be wrong regardless of the amount of evidence demonstrating that he is wrong.
The latest nonsense is he's going forward with a special investigation into voter fraud despite zero evidence that there is any.
Worse he's picked Chris Kobach from Kansas for the panel who has made a career out of figuring out ways to disenfranchise voters.
This sets up the suspicion that the panel is actually being tasked with manufacturing evidence rather than performing a real investigation.
The Comey Firing
Let's be very clear about this subject. You have to separate the man, James Comey, from the office he held as Director of the FBI.
Comey probably deserved to be fired. If there was a guy at his level better at putting his foot in his mouth I can't recall him off the top of my head.
The problem is in firing Comey with immediately filling the void of the Russian interference investigation with say a special prosecutor, Trump impinged the integrity of the office of Director of the FBI.
When you are playing with this sort of explosive stuff you not only have to be right you have to have all of the appearance of being right.
Trump is pretty good at putting his foot in his mouth as well. It's seems clear that he has lousy advisers.
Comey probably deserved to be fired. If there was a guy at his level better at putting his foot in his mouth I can't recall him off the top of my head.
The problem is in firing Comey with immediately filling the void of the Russian interference investigation with say a special prosecutor, Trump impinged the integrity of the office of Director of the FBI.
When you are playing with this sort of explosive stuff you not only have to be right you have to have all of the appearance of being right.
Trump is pretty good at putting his foot in his mouth as well. It's seems clear that he has lousy advisers.
The Heath Care Bill
It's been seven weeks since I had any desire to say anything about anything. A lot has happened in those seven weeks and I'm going to put down my thoughts about them in a few posts in no particular order.
Like Lazarus rising from the grave the Republican health care bill doesn't want to stay dead. I'm no expert and I will admit that I didn't have the heart to read the new bill so I'm sort of relying upon what others say, but I'll give you my impression.
The Republicans are absolutely full of crap. Yes they did rush the legislation without waiting for the CBO assessment or input from interested groups. So far I've heard the AMA and the AARP have both panned the bill.
You can't cut Medicaid dollars and essentially hope the states will pour money into some sort of high risk pool for people with preexisting conditions without guaranteeing a bunch of folks will either lose health insurance or not be able to get it.
The other thing I don't understand is why cut the tax on tanning salons? Is there anyone that seriously thinks we shouldn't be discouraging people from using those cancer incubation machines? I mean come on.
If you take all the sick people out of the market AND essentially put no requirements on what a health care policy has to include of course premiums are going to come down. Profits are also going to go up but some people are also going to die.
In the meantime the senate sounds like its going to essentially write their own bill. Can't wait to see that one.
It seems pretty simple to me that you write a bill you need to include two important things in a summary somewhere.
(1) What is the objective or objectives of the bill.
(2) A specific explanation, complete with numbers, on how this bill is expected to accomplish that objective or those objectives.
If you can't specify these two things, then you're just blowing hot air.
Like Lazarus rising from the grave the Republican health care bill doesn't want to stay dead. I'm no expert and I will admit that I didn't have the heart to read the new bill so I'm sort of relying upon what others say, but I'll give you my impression.
The Republicans are absolutely full of crap. Yes they did rush the legislation without waiting for the CBO assessment or input from interested groups. So far I've heard the AMA and the AARP have both panned the bill.
You can't cut Medicaid dollars and essentially hope the states will pour money into some sort of high risk pool for people with preexisting conditions without guaranteeing a bunch of folks will either lose health insurance or not be able to get it.
The other thing I don't understand is why cut the tax on tanning salons? Is there anyone that seriously thinks we shouldn't be discouraging people from using those cancer incubation machines? I mean come on.
If you take all the sick people out of the market AND essentially put no requirements on what a health care policy has to include of course premiums are going to come down. Profits are also going to go up but some people are also going to die.
In the meantime the senate sounds like its going to essentially write their own bill. Can't wait to see that one.
It seems pretty simple to me that you write a bill you need to include two important things in a summary somewhere.
(1) What is the objective or objectives of the bill.
(2) A specific explanation, complete with numbers, on how this bill is expected to accomplish that objective or those objectives.
If you can't specify these two things, then you're just blowing hot air.
Sunday, March 26, 2017
Transgender Confusion
I never cease to be amazed about the ignorance making the rounds about transgender individuals.
No one is telling anyone that they can be a girl if that's what they want to be. Let me try and explain it as I understand it.
Sex: Is determined by biology and can be either male, female or intersex. Intersex individuals make up about 1.6% of the population and have either physical or chromosomal characteristics that don't match the typical male or female types,
Gender: Refers to the socially constructed roles, behaviors, activities, and attributes that a given society considers appropriate for boys and men or girls and women. Obviously gender is not arbitrary but extensively influenced by sexual characteristics.
Gender Dysphoria: Strong, persistent feelings of identification with the opposite gender and discomfort with one's own biological sex that results in significant distress or impairment.
To be clinically diagnosed with gender dysphoria:
A. Must persistently and strongly identify with the opposite gender (aside from desiring any perceived cultural advantage of being the other gender).
B. A persistent discomfort with his or her sex traits or sense of inappropriateness of the gender associated with those traits. Must have strong discomfort with own gender and express that discomfort.
C. Not concurrent with physical intersex condition.
D. Causes clinically significant distress or impairment in social, occupational or other important areas of functioning.
I don't know where people get this impression that one can simply declare themselves a member of the other gender. For instance one would not be recognized as transgender in a school environment without psychiatric concurrence.
The number of transgender individuals in the US is minuscule. Depending upon whose numbers you believe they are somewhere between 0.3% and 0.6% of the population.
To put this in perspective, 14% of the US population lives in poverty so I figure we have much more important things to worry about.
No one is telling anyone that they can be a girl if that's what they want to be. Let me try and explain it as I understand it.
Sex: Is determined by biology and can be either male, female or intersex. Intersex individuals make up about 1.6% of the population and have either physical or chromosomal characteristics that don't match the typical male or female types,
Gender: Refers to the socially constructed roles, behaviors, activities, and attributes that a given society considers appropriate for boys and men or girls and women. Obviously gender is not arbitrary but extensively influenced by sexual characteristics.
Gender Dysphoria: Strong, persistent feelings of identification with the opposite gender and discomfort with one's own biological sex that results in significant distress or impairment.
To be clinically diagnosed with gender dysphoria:
A. Must persistently and strongly identify with the opposite gender (aside from desiring any perceived cultural advantage of being the other gender).
B. A persistent discomfort with his or her sex traits or sense of inappropriateness of the gender associated with those traits. Must have strong discomfort with own gender and express that discomfort.
C. Not concurrent with physical intersex condition.
D. Causes clinically significant distress or impairment in social, occupational or other important areas of functioning.
I don't know where people get this impression that one can simply declare themselves a member of the other gender. For instance one would not be recognized as transgender in a school environment without psychiatric concurrence.
The number of transgender individuals in the US is minuscule. Depending upon whose numbers you believe they are somewhere between 0.3% and 0.6% of the population.
To put this in perspective, 14% of the US population lives in poverty so I figure we have much more important things to worry about.
Thursday, March 16, 2017
Meals on Wheels
Meals on Wheels is a program that bring food to the elderly that a difficult time shopping for themselves are on a limited budget.
The food isn't fancy but it's generally nutritious. It's delivered by volunteers so the cost is mostly for the food.
But not to worry, according the Trump White House the program is "not showing any results" so they want to cut it in order to free up funds for a $54 billion increase to defense spending.
Like the man said, Republicans only care for themselves.
What the hell kind of results are you expecting from delivering small parcels of food to older folk who otherwise might not be eating regularly?
Is this part of the Republican plan to help out Social Security? Kill off the elderly so they stop collecting?
And to make matters worse, the extra money they want to spend on defense appears to be earmarked for the wrong sort of stuff. They want to fight the cold war rather than a 21st cetury war where insurgency and cyber warfare are the real dangers.
Give me a goddamn break.
The food isn't fancy but it's generally nutritious. It's delivered by volunteers so the cost is mostly for the food.
But not to worry, according the Trump White House the program is "not showing any results" so they want to cut it in order to free up funds for a $54 billion increase to defense spending.
Like the man said, Republicans only care for themselves.
What the hell kind of results are you expecting from delivering small parcels of food to older folk who otherwise might not be eating regularly?
Is this part of the Republican plan to help out Social Security? Kill off the elderly so they stop collecting?
And to make matters worse, the extra money they want to spend on defense appears to be earmarked for the wrong sort of stuff. They want to fight the cold war rather than a 21st cetury war where insurgency and cyber warfare are the real dangers.
Give me a goddamn break.
Wednesday, February 08, 2017
Trump
Every day Trump gives more evidence that he is precisely what we were afraid he was, self centered, immature, delusional and a lousy judge of character.
He is the ultimate example of the Dunning-Kruger effect and appears to be working overtime to make himself look ridiculous.
I'd like to offer him some free advice.
(1) Stop being distracted by trivial nonsense. What difference does it make who's inauguration crowd was bigger?
(2) Get a grip on reality. There was no voter fraud. You really did lose the popular vote and no, the media is not refusing to report terrorist incidents. If anything they beat them to death like a bunch of ghouls.
(3) Get rid of the obvious incompetents giving you bad advice and making you look dumb. That includes Steve Bannon, Alex Jones, Kellyanne Conway and that utter clown Sean Spicer.
(4) Stop listening to the Religious Right. Collect the actual facts before making a decision.
(5) Get rid of your Twitter account.
If you listen to me then maybe, just maybe, we might avoid a national catastrophe.
He is the ultimate example of the Dunning-Kruger effect and appears to be working overtime to make himself look ridiculous.
I'd like to offer him some free advice.
(1) Stop being distracted by trivial nonsense. What difference does it make who's inauguration crowd was bigger?
(2) Get a grip on reality. There was no voter fraud. You really did lose the popular vote and no, the media is not refusing to report terrorist incidents. If anything they beat them to death like a bunch of ghouls.
(3) Get rid of the obvious incompetents giving you bad advice and making you look dumb. That includes Steve Bannon, Alex Jones, Kellyanne Conway and that utter clown Sean Spicer.
(4) Stop listening to the Religious Right. Collect the actual facts before making a decision.
(5) Get rid of your Twitter account.
If you listen to me then maybe, just maybe, we might avoid a national catastrophe.
Super Bowl LI
I was almost dozing off. I actually started finishing "Around the World in 80 Days" on my tablet. It was 28-3 Falcons. I figured I'd just kill time till the game was over.
As Phileas Fogg and Passpartout were looking for a ship across the Atlantic the Patriots scored but then missed the extra point. That made it 28-9 and I remember thinking to myself "boy, nothing is going right for these guys."
A short while later the Patriots failed to get into the end zone and settled for a field goal. The score was 28-12 and Joe Buck was desperately trying to keep the interest up by exclaiming that it was now a two score game.
I remember thinking, "yeah two scores and two 2-point conversions."
As Phileas Fogg starting burning the last of the good ship Henrietta's upper structure the Pats scored again and got the 2-point conversion. I put my tablet down. The score was 28-20 and Tom Brady was clearly in the zone.
Even so the Falcons blew a chance to just about put the game away by allowing a big sack followed by a holding penalty when they were inside the 25 yard line. Two running plays, burning time off the clock or forcing the Pats to us their timeouts, followed by a field goal would have made the score 31-20 and the Patriots would have been hurting big time.
Instead they ended up punting. Brady took the Patriots down to the tying score and then took the overtime kickoff and just as easily marched to the winning touchdown for a 34-28 come from behind win.
Is there anyone in the country that still doubts that Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL?
As Phileas Fogg and Passpartout were looking for a ship across the Atlantic the Patriots scored but then missed the extra point. That made it 28-9 and I remember thinking to myself "boy, nothing is going right for these guys."
A short while later the Patriots failed to get into the end zone and settled for a field goal. The score was 28-12 and Joe Buck was desperately trying to keep the interest up by exclaiming that it was now a two score game.
I remember thinking, "yeah two scores and two 2-point conversions."
As Phileas Fogg starting burning the last of the good ship Henrietta's upper structure the Pats scored again and got the 2-point conversion. I put my tablet down. The score was 28-20 and Tom Brady was clearly in the zone.
Even so the Falcons blew a chance to just about put the game away by allowing a big sack followed by a holding penalty when they were inside the 25 yard line. Two running plays, burning time off the clock or forcing the Pats to us their timeouts, followed by a field goal would have made the score 31-20 and the Patriots would have been hurting big time.
Instead they ended up punting. Brady took the Patriots down to the tying score and then took the overtime kickoff and just as easily marched to the winning touchdown for a 34-28 come from behind win.
Is there anyone in the country that still doubts that Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL?
Friday, January 20, 2017
Trump's Cabinet
Trump's not off to a very good start.
Many of his choices for cabinet posts are absolutely dreadful.
Rick Perry didn't even know what the department he now leads does. DeVos thinks the public schools should be used to pave the way for God's Kingdom and doesn't understand the basics of education. As for Ben Carson, maybe we'll get lucky and he'll lose his way trying to get to Washington.
Those are the total incompetents and I'll be surprised if any of them last a year.
Then we get the downright spiteful. Tom Price who would like nothing better than to dismantle Medicare, Steve Mnuchin who thinks swindling 80 plus year old grandmas in search of a profit is just fine and dandy, Scott Pruitt who thinks environmental regulations should be left up to the states and Jeff Sessions who seems to think they had it right back in the 1950s Jim Crow South.
On the plus side Linda McMahon for the SBA is probably his best pick and I think Rex Tillerson may turn out to be his most critical pick since he's about the only guy that might be capable of beating any sense into Trump's thick skull.
Many of his choices for cabinet posts are absolutely dreadful.
Rick Perry didn't even know what the department he now leads does. DeVos thinks the public schools should be used to pave the way for God's Kingdom and doesn't understand the basics of education. As for Ben Carson, maybe we'll get lucky and he'll lose his way trying to get to Washington.
Those are the total incompetents and I'll be surprised if any of them last a year.
Then we get the downright spiteful. Tom Price who would like nothing better than to dismantle Medicare, Steve Mnuchin who thinks swindling 80 plus year old grandmas in search of a profit is just fine and dandy, Scott Pruitt who thinks environmental regulations should be left up to the states and Jeff Sessions who seems to think they had it right back in the 1950s Jim Crow South.
On the plus side Linda McMahon for the SBA is probably his best pick and I think Rex Tillerson may turn out to be his most critical pick since he's about the only guy that might be capable of beating any sense into Trump's thick skull.
Wednesday, January 11, 2017
Clemson vs. Alabama
That was a great game. That was more than a great game. That was an absolute classic as Clemson took down Alabama 35-31.
Clemson trailed 24-14 as the 4th quarter began, They cut the score to 24-21 and then, with 4 minutes left, took the lead for the first time 28-24.
But we're talking about Alabama here and the Tide came roaring back sparked by a 24 yard trick play lateral and a 30 yard scramble by true freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts for a touchdown to take the lead back 31-28 with 2 minutes left.
But Deshaun Watson and Clemson weren't done yet. They methodically moved the ball to the Alabama 9 yard line and called timeout with 14 seconds left.
The big question was how many chances would Clemson get to win it before going for a tying field goal remembering of course that Alabama was a team that lived by taking the ball away.
The next play was an incomplete pass moving the clock down to 9 seconds. The next pass went to the end zone and Alabama was called for pass interference which placed the ball at the 2 yard line with 6 seconds left.
Then, in a thing of beauty, Clemson ran a pick play to the right side and Watson dropped it into 5'11" 180 pound Hunter Renfrow for the TD.
Renfrow had been a thorn in the side of Alabama all night with 10 catches for 92 yards and 2 TDs but, perhaps bigger, was a huge tackle to prevent a recovered fumble from turning into an Alabama TD that would have made the score 21-7 early in the 3rd quarter. Instead the Clemson defense held and Alabama had to settle for a field goal.
But the game wasn't quite over yet. There was still one second on the clock. Clemson dribbled the kickoff and fell on it after it had gone 10 yards, The celebrations began, everyone poured out onto the field but there was still one second on the clock.
The zebras began to huddle. The field was cleared. Calls were made upstairs to the replay booth. The game announcers were confused and all half of America could think of was, "Oh no. They're going to pull out some obscure rule, give the ball to Alabama and there will still be a chance for them to win."
But it wasn't to be. Clemson's Watson took a knee from victory formation and the game was over.
Clemson trailed 24-14 as the 4th quarter began, They cut the score to 24-21 and then, with 4 minutes left, took the lead for the first time 28-24.
But we're talking about Alabama here and the Tide came roaring back sparked by a 24 yard trick play lateral and a 30 yard scramble by true freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts for a touchdown to take the lead back 31-28 with 2 minutes left.
But Deshaun Watson and Clemson weren't done yet. They methodically moved the ball to the Alabama 9 yard line and called timeout with 14 seconds left.
The big question was how many chances would Clemson get to win it before going for a tying field goal remembering of course that Alabama was a team that lived by taking the ball away.
The next play was an incomplete pass moving the clock down to 9 seconds. The next pass went to the end zone and Alabama was called for pass interference which placed the ball at the 2 yard line with 6 seconds left.
Then, in a thing of beauty, Clemson ran a pick play to the right side and Watson dropped it into 5'11" 180 pound Hunter Renfrow for the TD.
Renfrow had been a thorn in the side of Alabama all night with 10 catches for 92 yards and 2 TDs but, perhaps bigger, was a huge tackle to prevent a recovered fumble from turning into an Alabama TD that would have made the score 21-7 early in the 3rd quarter. Instead the Clemson defense held and Alabama had to settle for a field goal.
But the game wasn't quite over yet. There was still one second on the clock. Clemson dribbled the kickoff and fell on it after it had gone 10 yards, The celebrations began, everyone poured out onto the field but there was still one second on the clock.
The zebras began to huddle. The field was cleared. Calls were made upstairs to the replay booth. The game announcers were confused and all half of America could think of was, "Oh no. They're going to pull out some obscure rule, give the ball to Alabama and there will still be a chance for them to win."
But it wasn't to be. Clemson's Watson took a knee from victory formation and the game was over.
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
The College Football Semi-finals
Wow. The Alabama defense is scary and the Clemson defense looked just as scary.
Alabama took care of Washington 24-7. Clemson utterly obliterated Ohio State 31-0 but it wasn't even that close. What impressed me was Clemson's defense which held Ohio State to 216 yards while the Clemson offense racked up 473 yards.
So January 9th we get the final. Alabama is a 6.5 point favorite but if anyone can calm the Tide I have to believe it's Clemson.
Should be fun.
Alabama took care of Washington 24-7. Clemson utterly obliterated Ohio State 31-0 but it wasn't even that close. What impressed me was Clemson's defense which held Ohio State to 216 yards while the Clemson offense racked up 473 yards.
So January 9th we get the final. Alabama is a 6.5 point favorite but if anyone can calm the Tide I have to believe it's Clemson.
Should be fun.
Saturday, December 24, 2016
Gender Neutral Pronouns
It seems the latest thing around the old student union is the idea of using a "gender neutral" pronoun if you don't know the person's "preferred gender pronoun." Some people even suggest that we let people come up with their own genders.
Now, if we're going to go down this road then we really need to agree on what's sex and what's gender.
According to the American Psychological Association your body determines your sex. Gender refers to the attitudes, feelings, and behaviors that a given culture associates with a person’s physical sex. Obviously Gender is not arbitrary and is very heavily influenced by sex. But it is actually distinct. As for sex, the APA recognizes three sexes, male, female and intersex. Intersex consists of a series of physical conditions in which a person is born with a reproductive or sexual anatomy that doesn't seem to fit the typical definitions of female or male. Intersex folks are believed to consist of about 1,7% of the population. In other words, about as prevalent as people with red hair. Then we get to Transgender. Apparently, the term covers a number of non-conforming psychological cases the best known of which are Transsexuals who feel their gender doesn't match their sex. But apparently there are other definitions which, to be honest, I don't really understand. The famous 51 or 58 or 71, depending upon who you ask, gender options that Facebook provides appear to contain lots of different ways of saying the same thing. For instance Cis Female, Cis Woman, Cisgender Female and Cisgender Woman all mean the same thing; a female who has a feminine gender identity. The latest estimates places the number of transgenders at 0.6% of the population.or about double the previous estimate of 0.3%. The 0.6% number came from a Williams Institute analysis (http://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/How-Many-Adults-Identify-as-Transgender-in-the-United-States.pdf) Now as I understand it both intersex and transgender types may prefer gender neutral pronouns. I haven't asked all of them so I can't say for sure. Assuming the estimates are correct that would be about 2.3% of the population. According to Pew Research that's greater than the number of Muslims (0.6%), the number of Mormons (1.6%), the number of Hindus (0.7%), the number of Buddhists (0.7%) and the number of Jews (1.9%) in the US so it's not really a minuscule number. Does it seem a little silly? Sure, but I remember people saying the same thing about Ms. back in the 1960s and now it's pretty much standard usage in the business world. Maybe there's a happy medium which isn't completely crazy. The idea of "choose your own pronoun" is obviously nuts but I don't see much of a problem with introducing gender neutral pronouns. If nothing else it will keep me from grinding my teeth when someone uses "she" when the sex is unknown instead of "he" (or they) which are (or were) the traditionally accepted usage in that case.
Now, if we're going to go down this road then we really need to agree on what's sex and what's gender.
According to the American Psychological Association your body determines your sex. Gender refers to the attitudes, feelings, and behaviors that a given culture associates with a person’s physical sex. Obviously Gender is not arbitrary and is very heavily influenced by sex. But it is actually distinct. As for sex, the APA recognizes three sexes, male, female and intersex. Intersex consists of a series of physical conditions in which a person is born with a reproductive or sexual anatomy that doesn't seem to fit the typical definitions of female or male. Intersex folks are believed to consist of about 1,7% of the population. In other words, about as prevalent as people with red hair. Then we get to Transgender. Apparently, the term covers a number of non-conforming psychological cases the best known of which are Transsexuals who feel their gender doesn't match their sex. But apparently there are other definitions which, to be honest, I don't really understand. The famous 51 or 58 or 71, depending upon who you ask, gender options that Facebook provides appear to contain lots of different ways of saying the same thing. For instance Cis Female, Cis Woman, Cisgender Female and Cisgender Woman all mean the same thing; a female who has a feminine gender identity. The latest estimates places the number of transgenders at 0.6% of the population.or about double the previous estimate of 0.3%. The 0.6% number came from a Williams Institute analysis (http://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/How-Many-Adults-Identify-as-Transgender-in-the-United-States.pdf) Now as I understand it both intersex and transgender types may prefer gender neutral pronouns. I haven't asked all of them so I can't say for sure. Assuming the estimates are correct that would be about 2.3% of the population. According to Pew Research that's greater than the number of Muslims (0.6%), the number of Mormons (1.6%), the number of Hindus (0.7%), the number of Buddhists (0.7%) and the number of Jews (1.9%) in the US so it's not really a minuscule number. Does it seem a little silly? Sure, but I remember people saying the same thing about Ms. back in the 1960s and now it's pretty much standard usage in the business world. Maybe there's a happy medium which isn't completely crazy. The idea of "choose your own pronoun" is obviously nuts but I don't see much of a problem with introducing gender neutral pronouns. If nothing else it will keep me from grinding my teeth when someone uses "she" when the sex is unknown instead of "he" (or they) which are (or were) the traditionally accepted usage in that case.
Saturday, December 17, 2016
Thoughts on Trump
Here's the fundamental problem. Trump doesn't take rejection well and he takes being outsmarted by someone even worse. His single biggest weak point is that he's too conceited to listen to the experts and that includes Intelligence experts. Putin is smarter than Trump and I think he has a good handle on Trump's personality foibles.
The scenario I see is Putin leading Trump around by his nose while Trump remains convinced that he's actually in control. He will hold onto onto that opinion, despite what the Intelligence community is telling him, until it becomes impossible for even him to continue lying to himself. When that day comes it's going to get terribly scary.
The basic problem with just about everything Trump has "promised," is that while many are laudable objectives, most have associated with them high risk implementations which could go drastically wrong. I suppose we shall see what we shall see but:
- There's isn't going to be a wall. It's too expensive and too controversial.
- Any tax reform will make the already rich richer and do nothing for 98% of the country.
- Manufacturing jobs aren't coming back in any quantity. If he makes it too expensive to build stuff abroad through tariffs, any factories built here will be so highly automated that the number of manufacturing jobs will be minimal. Where the jobs will be is where they are now, high tech and engineering positions to design, build and maintain the robots.
- The vetting of refugees is already extreme. It's much easier to enter the country through any of the various visas.
- You can't repeal Obamacare without replacing it or removing the unfunded mandate that hospitals must treat the sick and injured regardless of their ability to pay which has been in effect since the early 1980s. The big issue with healthcare is the list of "stuff you might have and should be screened for" continues to grow and the cost of the treatments continue to balloon. It's a problem but removing health insurance from 12 million people is probably not the answer.
- Climate change is a real issue and even his Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson acknowledges that it's a problem. Tillerson however believes that it's not progressing as fast as the models indicate and that's it's basically an engineering problem. I hope he's right but the latest research suggests that it may be progressing faster than the models indicate.
As for the maniacs he may appoint to the Supreme Court, we'll have to wait and see.
- Any tax reform will make the already rich richer and do nothing for 98% of the country.
- Manufacturing jobs aren't coming back in any quantity. If he makes it too expensive to build stuff abroad through tariffs, any factories built here will be so highly automated that the number of manufacturing jobs will be minimal. Where the jobs will be is where they are now, high tech and engineering positions to design, build and maintain the robots.
- The vetting of refugees is already extreme. It's much easier to enter the country through any of the various visas.
- You can't repeal Obamacare without replacing it or removing the unfunded mandate that hospitals must treat the sick and injured regardless of their ability to pay which has been in effect since the early 1980s. The big issue with healthcare is the list of "stuff you might have and should be screened for" continues to grow and the cost of the treatments continue to balloon. It's a problem but removing health insurance from 12 million people is probably not the answer.
- Climate change is a real issue and even his Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson acknowledges that it's a problem. Tillerson however believes that it's not progressing as fast as the models indicate and that's it's basically an engineering problem. I hope he's right but the latest research suggests that it may be progressing faster than the models indicate.
As for the maniacs he may appoint to the Supreme Court, we'll have to wait and see.
Wednesday, December 07, 2016
College Football Poll Final
No big upsets but as usual some perplexing changes. The final list.
#1 - Alabama (12-0) (beat Florida 54-16)
#2 - Clemson (12-1) (beat Virginia Tech 42-35)
#3 - Ohio State (11-1) (bye)
#4 - Washington (12-1) (beat Colorado State 41-10)
#5 - Penn State (11-2) (beat Wisconsin 38-31)
#6 - Michigan (10-2) (bye)
#7 - Oklahoma (10-2) (beat Oklahoma State 38-20)
#8 - Wisconsin (10-2) (lost to Penn State 38-31)
#9 - Southern California (9-3) (bye)
#10 - Colorado (10-3) (lost to Washington 41-10)
Dropped out of top 10:
#12 - Oklahoma State (9-3) (lost to Oklahoma 38-20)
I find it puzzling that Clemson moved past Ohio State. I can understand Penn State moving ahead of Wisconsin but why also move ahead of Michigan? The real puzzler is why Southern California, by not playing, jumped ahead of both Oklahoma State and Colorado.
Oh well, the top four are set and with the possible exception of wondering why Clemson is #2 rather than Ohio State they seem reasonable except of course one could argue that Penn State, the Big 10 Champion, should be included instead of Ohio State.
On to the playoffs!!! The semi finals will be on December 31st.
Washington will play Alabama in the Peach Bowl at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. I think I'll go with Alabama.
Ohio State will play Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale Arizona. I think I'll go with Ohio State.
The Championship Game will be on January 9th at 8 PM at the Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Florida.
#1 - Alabama (12-0) (beat Florida 54-16)
#2 - Clemson (12-1) (beat Virginia Tech 42-35)
#3 - Ohio State (11-1) (bye)
#4 - Washington (12-1) (beat Colorado State 41-10)
#5 - Penn State (11-2) (beat Wisconsin 38-31)
#6 - Michigan (10-2) (bye)
#7 - Oklahoma (10-2) (beat Oklahoma State 38-20)
#8 - Wisconsin (10-2) (lost to Penn State 38-31)
#9 - Southern California (9-3) (bye)
#10 - Colorado (10-3) (lost to Washington 41-10)
Dropped out of top 10:
#12 - Oklahoma State (9-3) (lost to Oklahoma 38-20)
I find it puzzling that Clemson moved past Ohio State. I can understand Penn State moving ahead of Wisconsin but why also move ahead of Michigan? The real puzzler is why Southern California, by not playing, jumped ahead of both Oklahoma State and Colorado.
Oh well, the top four are set and with the possible exception of wondering why Clemson is #2 rather than Ohio State they seem reasonable except of course one could argue that Penn State, the Big 10 Champion, should be included instead of Ohio State.
On to the playoffs!!! The semi finals will be on December 31st.
Washington will play Alabama in the Peach Bowl at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. I think I'll go with Alabama.
Ohio State will play Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale Arizona. I think I'll go with Ohio State.
The Championship Game will be on January 9th at 8 PM at the Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Florida.
Friday, December 02, 2016
College Football Poll week 13
The big game was Michigan at Ohio State. It was a nail biter with OSU winning in double overtime thanks to "the spot." On 4th and one in the second overtime OSU QB J.T. Barrett made the 1st down by half an eyelash. On the next play Curtis Samuel took it 15 yards to win it.
The call was so close that some dude did a pixel analysis on the play and concluded the 1st down was made by three pixels. I saw it; it was close.
#1 - Alabama (12-0) (beat Auburn 30-12)
#2 - Ohio State (11-1) (beat Michigan 30-27)
#3 - Clemson (11-1) (beat South Carolina 56-7)
#4 - Washington (11-1) (beat Washington State 45-17)
#5 - Michigan (10-2) (lost to Ohio State 30-27)
#6 - Wisconsin (10-2) (beat Minnesota 31-17)
#7 - Penn State (10-2) (beat Michigan State 45-12)
#8 - Colorado (10-2) (beat Utah 27-22)
#9 - Oklahoma (9-2) (bye)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (bye)
So both Washington and Clemson hopped over Michigan while Colorado moved up by playing while Oklahoma prepared for Oklahoma State.
The only other teams from the top ten playing will be in the conference championship games but there are going to be some biggies that could easily shake things up. Week 15 there will be only the Army vs. Navy game (GO Army, BEAT Navy).
#1 Alabama will be at #15 Florida in the SEC Championship
#4 Washington will host #8 Colorado in the PAC-12 Championship
#3 Clemson will be at #23 Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship
#6 Wisconsin will be at #7 Penn State in the Big 10 Championship
Now, while one wouldn't think there would be any surprises one never knows. That's why they have to play the game. My guess is the best chance for an upset would be Colorado beating Washington. That could be a real mess if Wisconsin beats Penn State. Who then would be #4? Michigan, Wisconsin or Washington?
The call was so close that some dude did a pixel analysis on the play and concluded the 1st down was made by three pixels. I saw it; it was close.
#1 - Alabama (12-0) (beat Auburn 30-12)
#2 - Ohio State (11-1) (beat Michigan 30-27)
#3 - Clemson (11-1) (beat South Carolina 56-7)
#4 - Washington (11-1) (beat Washington State 45-17)
#5 - Michigan (10-2) (lost to Ohio State 30-27)
#6 - Wisconsin (10-2) (beat Minnesota 31-17)
#7 - Penn State (10-2) (beat Michigan State 45-12)
#8 - Colorado (10-2) (beat Utah 27-22)
#9 - Oklahoma (9-2) (bye)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (bye)
So both Washington and Clemson hopped over Michigan while Colorado moved up by playing while Oklahoma prepared for Oklahoma State.
The only other teams from the top ten playing will be in the conference championship games but there are going to be some biggies that could easily shake things up. Week 15 there will be only the Army vs. Navy game (GO Army, BEAT Navy).
#1 Alabama will be at #15 Florida in the SEC Championship
#4 Washington will host #8 Colorado in the PAC-12 Championship
#3 Clemson will be at #23 Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship
#6 Wisconsin will be at #7 Penn State in the Big 10 Championship
Now, while one wouldn't think there would be any surprises one never knows. That's why they have to play the game. My guess is the best chance for an upset would be Colorado beating Washington. That could be a real mess if Wisconsin beats Penn State. Who then would be #4? Michigan, Wisconsin or Washington?
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
College Football Poll Week 12
The standings after week 12.
#1 - Alabama (11-0) (beat Chattanooga 31-3)
#2 - Ohio State (10-1) (beat Michigan State 17-16)
#3 - Michigan (10-1) (beat Indiana 20-10)
#4 - Clemson (10-1) (beat Wake Forest 35-13)
#5 - Washington (10-1) (beat Arizona State 44-18)
#6 - Wisconsin (9-2) (beat Purdue 49-20)
#7 - Penn State (9-2) (beat Rutgers 39-0)
#8 - Oklahoma (9-2) (beat West Virginia 56-28)
#9 - Colorado (9-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (beat TCU 31-6)
Dropping out of the top 10:
#11 - Louisville (9-2) (lost to Houston 36-10)
The most interesting game for week 13 by far will be Michigan at Ohio State. Those two don't like each other normally but meeting head to head at 10-1 with a spot in the playoffs potentially on the line should make things extra interesting.
It's set for noon on Saturday.
Elsewhere Washington will be at Washington State, Wisconsin hosts an 8-3 Minnesota and Alabama will host Auburn.
#1 - Alabama (11-0) (beat Chattanooga 31-3)
#2 - Ohio State (10-1) (beat Michigan State 17-16)
#3 - Michigan (10-1) (beat Indiana 20-10)
#4 - Clemson (10-1) (beat Wake Forest 35-13)
#5 - Washington (10-1) (beat Arizona State 44-18)
#6 - Wisconsin (9-2) (beat Purdue 49-20)
#7 - Penn State (9-2) (beat Rutgers 39-0)
#8 - Oklahoma (9-2) (beat West Virginia 56-28)
#9 - Colorado (9-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (beat TCU 31-6)
Dropping out of the top 10:
#11 - Louisville (9-2) (lost to Houston 36-10)
The most interesting game for week 13 by far will be Michigan at Ohio State. Those two don't like each other normally but meeting head to head at 10-1 with a spot in the playoffs potentially on the line should make things extra interesting.
It's set for noon on Saturday.
Elsewhere Washington will be at Washington State, Wisconsin hosts an 8-3 Minnesota and Alabama will host Auburn.
Monday, November 21, 2016
College Football Poll 2016
Moving on to more entertaining topics, the College Football playoff polling has begun. In fact it began two weeks ago so I'll have to catch up.
As of week 9 we had:
#1 - Alabama (8-0)
#2 - Clemson (8-0)
#3 - Michigan (8-0)
#4 - Texas A&M (7-1)
#5 - Washington (8-0)
#6 - Ohio State (7-1)
#7 - Louisville (7-1)
#8 - Wisconsin (6-2)
#9 - Auburn (6-2)
#10 - Nebraska (7-1)
The big question would be why Texas A&M would be ahead of Washington.
As of week 10 we had:
#1 - Alabama (9-0) (beat LSU 10-0)
#2 - Clemson (9-0) (beat Syracuse 54-0)
#3 - Michigan (9-0) (beat Maryland 59-3)
#4 - Washington (9-0) (beat California 66-27)
#5 - Ohio State (8-1) (beat Nebraska 62-3)
#6 - Louisville (8-1) (beat Boston College 52-7)
#7 - Wisconsin (7-2) (beat Northwestern 21-7)
#8 - Texas A&M (7-2) (lost to Mississippi State 35-28)
#9 - Auburn (7-2) (beat Vanderbilt 23-16)
#10 - Penn State (7-2) (beat Iowa 41-14)
Dropping out of the ton ten:
#19 - Nebraska (7-2) (lost to Ohio State 62-3)
As of week 11 we have:
#1 - Alabama (10-0) (beat Mississippi State 51-3)
#2 - Ohio State (9-1) (beat Maryland 62-3)
#3 - Michigan (9-1) (lost to Iowa 14-13)
#4 - Clemson (9-1) (lost to Pittsburgh Syracuse 43-42)
#5 - Louisville (9-1) (beat Wake Forest 44-12)
#6 - Washington (9-1) (lost to USC 26-13)
#7 - Wisconsin (8-2) (beat Illinois 48-3)
#8 - Penn State (8-2) (beat Indiana 45-31)
#9 - Oklahoma (8-2) (beat Baylor 45-24)
#10 - Colorado (8-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)
Dropping out of the ton ten:
#15 - Auburn (7-3) (lost to Georgia 13-7)
#25 - Texas A&M (7-3) (lost to Oklahoma State 45-44)
I find it interesting that Michigan lost to Iowa but held its place and Clemson lost to Pittsburgh but only dropped from #2 to #4 but Washington lost two spots to #6 losing to USC despite USC having a better record (7-3) than either Iowa or Pittsburgh (both 6-4).
I suppose the PAC-12 just don't get no respect when compared to the ACC or Big 10.
As of week 9 we had:
#1 - Alabama (8-0)
#2 - Clemson (8-0)
#3 - Michigan (8-0)
#4 - Texas A&M (7-1)
#5 - Washington (8-0)
#6 - Ohio State (7-1)
#7 - Louisville (7-1)
#8 - Wisconsin (6-2)
#9 - Auburn (6-2)
#10 - Nebraska (7-1)
The big question would be why Texas A&M would be ahead of Washington.
As of week 10 we had:
#1 - Alabama (9-0) (beat LSU 10-0)
#2 - Clemson (9-0) (beat Syracuse 54-0)
#3 - Michigan (9-0) (beat Maryland 59-3)
#4 - Washington (9-0) (beat California 66-27)
#5 - Ohio State (8-1) (beat Nebraska 62-3)
#6 - Louisville (8-1) (beat Boston College 52-7)
#7 - Wisconsin (7-2) (beat Northwestern 21-7)
#8 - Texas A&M (7-2) (lost to Mississippi State 35-28)
#9 - Auburn (7-2) (beat Vanderbilt 23-16)
#10 - Penn State (7-2) (beat Iowa 41-14)
Dropping out of the ton ten:
#19 - Nebraska (7-2) (lost to Ohio State 62-3)
As of week 11 we have:
#1 - Alabama (10-0) (beat Mississippi State 51-3)
#2 - Ohio State (9-1) (beat Maryland 62-3)
#3 - Michigan (9-1) (lost to Iowa 14-13)
#4 - Clemson (9-1) (lost to Pittsburgh Syracuse 43-42)
#5 - Louisville (9-1) (beat Wake Forest 44-12)
#6 - Washington (9-1) (lost to USC 26-13)
#7 - Wisconsin (8-2) (beat Illinois 48-3)
#8 - Penn State (8-2) (beat Indiana 45-31)
#9 - Oklahoma (8-2) (beat Baylor 45-24)
#10 - Colorado (8-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)
Dropping out of the ton ten:
#15 - Auburn (7-3) (lost to Georgia 13-7)
#25 - Texas A&M (7-3) (lost to Oklahoma State 45-44)
I find it interesting that Michigan lost to Iowa but held its place and Clemson lost to Pittsburgh but only dropped from #2 to #4 but Washington lost two spots to #6 losing to USC despite USC having a better record (7-3) than either Iowa or Pittsburgh (both 6-4).
I suppose the PAC-12 just don't get no respect when compared to the ACC or Big 10.
Twelve Days Later
OK, so twelve days have passed since the election and I'm sort of standing and leaning against a convenient wall watching the shrapnel fly around.
Luckily just about all of it is imaginary.
Yes there have been a number of "racist" incidents most of which have been perpetrated by younger folks. Despite all of the wringing of hands and moaning and groaning I'm not all that concerned. It will taper off and at least we're finding out who the racist assholes are.
On the other hand, the people the Trump is appointing to the government might well turn out to be the least qualified group of clowns ever appointed to high government office.
Luckily the bureaucracy will probably just chug along in spite of them and at some point even Trump is going to figure out how incompetent they are and clean house.
My one enormous disappointment is that even though he won the stupid son of a bitch is still whining. All I hear is "whine, whine, whine."
Mike Pence went to see Hamilton, got roundly booed by the audience and then was treated to what amounted to a we sincerely hope you and Trump aren't as big assholes as you sound message from the cast.
Trump demanded an apology and of course every one laughed at him. He needs to get used to (1) being criticized. (2) being insulted and (3) being ignored.
You see, he's used to being a boss where none of those three things could happen without dire consequences to the fool that engaged in them. But a leader has to learn how to handle those things and, if possible, eliminate the basis for that sort of resistance.
That's the difference between a leader and a boss.
I would not follow Trump into combat because he's not a leader.
Luckily just about all of it is imaginary.
Yes there have been a number of "racist" incidents most of which have been perpetrated by younger folks. Despite all of the wringing of hands and moaning and groaning I'm not all that concerned. It will taper off and at least we're finding out who the racist assholes are.
On the other hand, the people the Trump is appointing to the government might well turn out to be the least qualified group of clowns ever appointed to high government office.
Luckily the bureaucracy will probably just chug along in spite of them and at some point even Trump is going to figure out how incompetent they are and clean house.
My one enormous disappointment is that even though he won the stupid son of a bitch is still whining. All I hear is "whine, whine, whine."
Mike Pence went to see Hamilton, got roundly booed by the audience and then was treated to what amounted to a we sincerely hope you and Trump aren't as big assholes as you sound message from the cast.
Trump demanded an apology and of course every one laughed at him. He needs to get used to (1) being criticized. (2) being insulted and (3) being ignored.
You see, he's used to being a boss where none of those three things could happen without dire consequences to the fool that engaged in them. But a leader has to learn how to handle those things and, if possible, eliminate the basis for that sort of resistance.
That's the difference between a leader and a boss.
I would not follow Trump into combat because he's not a leader.
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
May you live in Interesting Times.
That's an old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times."
Well, after last night things are certainly going to get interesting. With Trump in the White House and the Republicans in control of Congress what can we expect?
Certainly a rollback of Obama's immigration executive orders.
Very probably a flat out repeal of Obamacare.
Very probably a move toward tax reform. Exactly what shape that might take is not all that clear. I suspect Congressional Republicans and Trump have different ideas.
Very probably bad news on the Supreme Court. This will most likely be his one payback to the religious right for their votes.
Beyond that, who knows? And this is the big problem, He's far too erratic and unpredictable. It's only a matter of time before he runs into some sort of roadblock, either domestic or foreign. Does he try to work around it or steamroll over it?
Well, we're stuck with it, For better or worse.
On the bright side, the market didn't tank like it did after Brexit. It's actually up about 200 points, and at least it's over. We won't have to listen to Trump whine.
To add insult to injury Josh Gottheimer beat Scott Garrett in my home district. I now have a democratic congressman for all the good it will do me.
Well, after last night things are certainly going to get interesting. With Trump in the White House and the Republicans in control of Congress what can we expect?
Certainly a rollback of Obama's immigration executive orders.
Very probably a flat out repeal of Obamacare.
Very probably a move toward tax reform. Exactly what shape that might take is not all that clear. I suspect Congressional Republicans and Trump have different ideas.
Very probably bad news on the Supreme Court. This will most likely be his one payback to the religious right for their votes.
Beyond that, who knows? And this is the big problem, He's far too erratic and unpredictable. It's only a matter of time before he runs into some sort of roadblock, either domestic or foreign. Does he try to work around it or steamroll over it?
Well, we're stuck with it, For better or worse.
On the bright side, the market didn't tank like it did after Brexit. It's actually up about 200 points, and at least it's over. We won't have to listen to Trump whine.
To add insult to injury Josh Gottheimer beat Scott Garrett in my home district. I now have a democratic congressman for all the good it will do me.
Election Night
Well, here we go.
7:30 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3
Trump takes Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky.
Clinton takes Vermont.
Trump leads in New Hampshire, Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in Florida.
If Trump manages to take Virginia, that's probably the ball game.
8:00 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3
Trump takes no states the last half hour.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.
Virginia always like to give me a hard time. The gap in Florida has been closing and I wouldn't get too excited about Ohio.
8:30 EST
Trump - 60
Clinton - 44
Trump takes Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina.
Clinton takes Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland. Delaware and DC.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Rhode Island, Maine and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio.
Trump is pulling away in Florida and gaining in Ohio and North Carolina. His lead in Virginia is holding steady.
9:00 EST
Trump - 66
Clinton - 48
Trump takes Mississippi
Clinton takes Rhode Island.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, North Dakota. Ohio and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina and Illinois.
This election might make a lot of people look silly and send them back to reconsider their election models. Trump looks like he's headed for a big night.
9:30 EST
Trump - 129
Clinton - 104
Trump takes Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Arkansas and Wyoming.
Clinton takes Illinois, Connecticut and New York.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Colorado.
Oh this does not look good. Virginia may turn out to be the critical state. Of course with Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota all in the wrong column at the moment, maybe not. Trump has also just taken the lead in New Hampshire.
10:00 EST
Trump - 137
Clinton - 104
Trump takes Louisiana.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.
Trump leads in Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota and Colorado.
Clinton is now losing in all three of the four toss-up states. The other, Nevada, still has the polls open. She's also losing in three states she was supposed to win. Where's that light switch I think the party is winding down.
Oh wow, Virginia just flipped. Still things are very ugly in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Michigan. They're not so good in Wisconsin either.
10:30 EST
Trump - 150
Clinton - 109
Trump takes Montana and Missouri,
Clinton takes New Mexico.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa and Colorado.
Well, things look quite ugly. Of course a lot depends upon what precincts have reported but the hole is getting pretty deep. The popular vote at the moment has Trump at 48,94% and Clinton at 47.01% so it looks like we'll have a minority president and very possibly a president that loses the popular vote.
This is pretty screwed up.
I'm not sure why they haven't called Ohio or Florida yet. I don't see any way for Clinton to come back in either state.
11:00 EST
Trump - 197
Clinton - 131
Trump takes Ohio and Florida.
Clinton takes Virginia and Colorado.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Iowa.
As far as I can see the road to 270 electoral votes has just about closed completely for Clinton. Here comes President Trump unless Michigan and Wisconsin recover and she somehow pulls out Nevada because it looks to me like Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire are gone.
Hmm, looks like Trump is gaining ground in the popular vote. He now leads 49.14% to 46.62%. But of course California is still to come.
7:30 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3
Trump takes Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky.
Clinton takes Vermont.
Trump leads in New Hampshire, Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in Florida.
If Trump manages to take Virginia, that's probably the ball game.
8:00 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3
Trump takes no states the last half hour.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.
Virginia always like to give me a hard time. The gap in Florida has been closing and I wouldn't get too excited about Ohio.
8:30 EST
Trump - 60
Clinton - 44
Trump takes Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina.
Clinton takes Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland. Delaware and DC.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Rhode Island, Maine and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio.
Trump is pulling away in Florida and gaining in Ohio and North Carolina. His lead in Virginia is holding steady.
9:00 EST
Trump - 66
Clinton - 48
Trump takes Mississippi
Clinton takes Rhode Island.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, North Dakota. Ohio and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina and Illinois.
This election might make a lot of people look silly and send them back to reconsider their election models. Trump looks like he's headed for a big night.
9:30 EST
Trump - 129
Clinton - 104
Trump takes Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Arkansas and Wyoming.
Clinton takes Illinois, Connecticut and New York.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Colorado.
Oh this does not look good. Virginia may turn out to be the critical state. Of course with Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota all in the wrong column at the moment, maybe not. Trump has also just taken the lead in New Hampshire.
10:00 EST
Trump - 137
Clinton - 104
Trump takes Louisiana.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.
Trump leads in Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota and Colorado.
Clinton is now losing in all three of the four toss-up states. The other, Nevada, still has the polls open. She's also losing in three states she was supposed to win. Where's that light switch I think the party is winding down.
Oh wow, Virginia just flipped. Still things are very ugly in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Michigan. They're not so good in Wisconsin either.
10:30 EST
Trump - 150
Clinton - 109
Trump takes Montana and Missouri,
Clinton takes New Mexico.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa and Colorado.
Well, things look quite ugly. Of course a lot depends upon what precincts have reported but the hole is getting pretty deep. The popular vote at the moment has Trump at 48,94% and Clinton at 47.01% so it looks like we'll have a minority president and very possibly a president that loses the popular vote.
This is pretty screwed up.
I'm not sure why they haven't called Ohio or Florida yet. I don't see any way for Clinton to come back in either state.
11:00 EST
Trump - 197
Clinton - 131
Trump takes Ohio and Florida.
Clinton takes Virginia and Colorado.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Iowa.
As far as I can see the road to 270 electoral votes has just about closed completely for Clinton. Here comes President Trump unless Michigan and Wisconsin recover and she somehow pulls out Nevada because it looks to me like Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire are gone.
Hmm, looks like Trump is gaining ground in the popular vote. He now leads 49.14% to 46.62%. But of course California is still to come.
11:30 EST
Trump - 216
Clinton - 197
Trump takes Idaho and North Carolina.
Clinton takes California, Oregon and Hawaii.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Hampshire and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
This one looks like it's going to take a while to get the final numbers but to be honest it looks all over but the search for the guilty and the punishment of the innocent. As incredible as it sounds, it looks as if we've just elected Donald Trump president.
Or have we? The situation is like this: Washington, Wisconsin and Michigan have all got to recover and Nevada, Pennsylvania. Minnesota and Maine all have to hold and we'll probably have a Constitutional crisis on our hands. If any of those seven things don't happen, Donald Trump will be the next president.
12:00 EST
Trump - 238
Clinton - 209
Trump takes Georgia and Utah.
Clinton takes Washington.
Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
OK, Washington appears to have come home. One down and six to go.
I don't see much movement in either Michigan or Wisconsin. Trump's lead seems to be holding steady. If he wins either state everything else is sort of moot.
Wisconsin looks like it's just about gone. Pennsylvania is actually closer than Wisconsin right now.
In the meantime the popular vote is now 48.47% to 47%.
Over in the Senate the Republicans are ahead 49-46. This is shaping up to be the Republicans control everything. There goes the Supreme Court, any progress on climate change and Obamacare. Gee, I hope Social Security and Medicare survive.
I suspect the issue here was the large number of undecided voters. Clearly they decided to give Trump and the Republicans control. I'm embarrassed for the country. Let's at least hope we can avoid a nuclear war or a financial meltdown.
Trump is actually pulling away in Wisconsin and holding his lead in Michigan. He looks to be headed to at least 287 votes and perhaps more depending upon how Maine splits up and whether Pennsylvania, which is much closer than either Michigan or Wisconsin right now, flips into his column. He could have as many as 311 electoral votes.
12:30 EST
Trump - 244
Clinton - 209
Trump takes Iowa.
Clinton takes
Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
The question for me is when do I pack it in?
OK, Pennsylvania just flipped to red. I think I'm going to concede and go get some sleep. It's going to be President Trump.
Trump - 216
Clinton - 197
Trump takes Idaho and North Carolina.
Clinton takes California, Oregon and Hawaii.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Hampshire and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
This one looks like it's going to take a while to get the final numbers but to be honest it looks all over but the search for the guilty and the punishment of the innocent. As incredible as it sounds, it looks as if we've just elected Donald Trump president.
Or have we? The situation is like this: Washington, Wisconsin and Michigan have all got to recover and Nevada, Pennsylvania. Minnesota and Maine all have to hold and we'll probably have a Constitutional crisis on our hands. If any of those seven things don't happen, Donald Trump will be the next president.
12:00 EST
Trump - 238
Clinton - 209
Trump takes Georgia and Utah.
Clinton takes Washington.
Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
OK, Washington appears to have come home. One down and six to go.
I don't see much movement in either Michigan or Wisconsin. Trump's lead seems to be holding steady. If he wins either state everything else is sort of moot.
Wisconsin looks like it's just about gone. Pennsylvania is actually closer than Wisconsin right now.
In the meantime the popular vote is now 48.47% to 47%.
Over in the Senate the Republicans are ahead 49-46. This is shaping up to be the Republicans control everything. There goes the Supreme Court, any progress on climate change and Obamacare. Gee, I hope Social Security and Medicare survive.
I suspect the issue here was the large number of undecided voters. Clearly they decided to give Trump and the Republicans control. I'm embarrassed for the country. Let's at least hope we can avoid a nuclear war or a financial meltdown.
Trump is actually pulling away in Wisconsin and holding his lead in Michigan. He looks to be headed to at least 287 votes and perhaps more depending upon how Maine splits up and whether Pennsylvania, which is much closer than either Michigan or Wisconsin right now, flips into his column. He could have as many as 311 electoral votes.
12:30 EST
Trump - 244
Clinton - 209
Trump takes Iowa.
Clinton takes
Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
The question for me is when do I pack it in?
OK, Pennsylvania just flipped to red. I think I'm going to concede and go get some sleep. It's going to be President Trump.
Tuesday, November 08, 2016
Thoughts before the Plunge
It's pushing 6 PM. My wife and I voted this morning about 9 AM. She was voter #80; I was voter #81. My oldest daughter went before she went to work right as the polls opened. She was voter #1.
Assuming no surprises, and Pennsylvania and Michigan could turn into unpleasant surprises for Hillary Clinton, the election will come down to New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada.
New Hampshire's and Florida's polls will close at 7 PM. North Carolina will follow at 7:30 PM. Pennsylvania's will close at 8 PM; Michigan closes at 8 PM as well. Nevada's won't close until 10 PM EST.
I expect this to be a long night. I don't expect any of these states to be called quickly. It's quite likely that Ohio will take a while as well.
I just want it all to end tonight one way or the other.
Elections used to be fun. This election has not been fun.
Assuming no surprises, and Pennsylvania and Michigan could turn into unpleasant surprises for Hillary Clinton, the election will come down to New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada.
New Hampshire's and Florida's polls will close at 7 PM. North Carolina will follow at 7:30 PM. Pennsylvania's will close at 8 PM; Michigan closes at 8 PM as well. Nevada's won't close until 10 PM EST.
I expect this to be a long night. I don't expect any of these states to be called quickly. It's quite likely that Ohio will take a while as well.
I just want it all to end tonight one way or the other.
Elections used to be fun. This election has not been fun.
Monday, November 07, 2016
Election 2016 IX Part B
For everyone laughing at my 270-268 Trump electoral victory I might point out that Real Clear Politics has it 272-266 Clinton.
The difference is I don't feel comfortable with New Hampshire and that's where my 270-268 number comes from.
What are the key states from the four tracking states I'm following or at least the states where there are potential disagreements. There appear to be four main ones.
New Hampshire
Real Clear Politics - Clinton
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton
Nevada
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Trump
North Carolina
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Clinton
Florida
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton
There seems to be agreement on all of the other states although some are marked as very close. New Hampshire, although it's now unanimous, has just today slipped back into the Clinton fold which is why I'm uncomfortable with it. Note that any or all of these states could be so close as to make us go long past election day.
The difference is I don't feel comfortable with New Hampshire and that's where my 270-268 number comes from.
What are the key states from the four tracking states I'm following or at least the states where there are potential disagreements. There appear to be four main ones.
New Hampshire
Real Clear Politics - Clinton
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton
Nevada
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Trump
North Carolina
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Clinton
Florida
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton
There seems to be agreement on all of the other states although some are marked as very close. New Hampshire, although it's now unanimous, has just today slipped back into the Clinton fold which is why I'm uncomfortable with it. Note that any or all of these states could be so close as to make us go long past election day.
Election 2016 IX
Well, here we are on the eve of the election. I've been silent for two weeks primarily because I have been skeptical about just about everything and more than a little disgusted with both campaigns and both candidates.
I almost broke my silence when the FBI released its letter about another 1,000 Clinton emails but decided if I didn't have anything good to say, and I didn't think I could avoid cursing at Clinton, I should wait.
As it turned out, as suspected, it was much ado about nothing except probably for the facts that it helped Trump particularly in battlegrpound states and that Comey may have violated the Hatch act.
The Hatch Act which prohibits federal employees, except for the President, Vice President and other exempt employees, from participating in political campaigns or political acts.
Did Comey in fact violate the Hatch Act? I say suspend the bastard and let a board of inquiry decide. If the board decides he did, then he should be removed from office. Shooting him might be a bit extreme but I'd consider it.
The ultimate result is Comey's disregard for ethics has probably impacted elections because early voting occurring while the email cloud existed and could affect not only the presidential race but senate and congressional races.
Comey really should be rendered persona-non-grata regardless of who wins but you can be sure he won't be if the Republicans are elected.
So where are we?
The Republicans will hold onto the house thanks to their gerrymandering skill. Personally I'm guessing Republican Scott Garrett will hold onto his seat in my district. Both he and Democratic challenger Josh Gottheimer have run dirty as hell campaigns. In my opinion neither of them should win.
The Senate is a toss-up. Different sites are all over the map. It looks like at best a 51-49 situation for one party or the other. If the Republicans hold the senate and Clinton wins, she might as well go on vacation for four years because she isn't going to manage to accomplish anything. The Republicans are even saying they won't consider any Clinton Supreme Court nominees.
As for the presidency, I don't like the numbers I see. I think Trump has the inside track and based upon my most recent analysis he wins by a ridiculously close 270-268.
Every other analysis I've seen seems to disagree with me so here's hoping they're right and I'm wrong. But I have this really bad feeling that I'm not wrong.
Hopefully tomorrow will tell because the worst possible result would be an inconclusive election like the 2000 fiasco. Given how close I think it's going to be, that's not out of the question.
Also not out of the question would be Clinton winning the popular vote while Trump wins the electoral vote. I think the opposite is less likely.
"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;...In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility: But when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger;..."
I almost broke my silence when the FBI released its letter about another 1,000 Clinton emails but decided if I didn't have anything good to say, and I didn't think I could avoid cursing at Clinton, I should wait.
As it turned out, as suspected, it was much ado about nothing except probably for the facts that it helped Trump particularly in battlegrpound states and that Comey may have violated the Hatch act.
The Hatch Act which prohibits federal employees, except for the President, Vice President and other exempt employees, from participating in political campaigns or political acts.
Did Comey in fact violate the Hatch Act? I say suspend the bastard and let a board of inquiry decide. If the board decides he did, then he should be removed from office. Shooting him might be a bit extreme but I'd consider it.
The ultimate result is Comey's disregard for ethics has probably impacted elections because early voting occurring while the email cloud existed and could affect not only the presidential race but senate and congressional races.
Comey really should be rendered persona-non-grata regardless of who wins but you can be sure he won't be if the Republicans are elected.
So where are we?
The Republicans will hold onto the house thanks to their gerrymandering skill. Personally I'm guessing Republican Scott Garrett will hold onto his seat in my district. Both he and Democratic challenger Josh Gottheimer have run dirty as hell campaigns. In my opinion neither of them should win.
The Senate is a toss-up. Different sites are all over the map. It looks like at best a 51-49 situation for one party or the other. If the Republicans hold the senate and Clinton wins, she might as well go on vacation for four years because she isn't going to manage to accomplish anything. The Republicans are even saying they won't consider any Clinton Supreme Court nominees.
As for the presidency, I don't like the numbers I see. I think Trump has the inside track and based upon my most recent analysis he wins by a ridiculously close 270-268.
Every other analysis I've seen seems to disagree with me so here's hoping they're right and I'm wrong. But I have this really bad feeling that I'm not wrong.
Hopefully tomorrow will tell because the worst possible result would be an inconclusive election like the 2000 fiasco. Given how close I think it's going to be, that's not out of the question.
Also not out of the question would be Clinton winning the popular vote while Trump wins the electoral vote. I think the opposite is less likely.
"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;...In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility: But when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger;..."
Monday, October 24, 2016
Election 2016 VIII
It's been 25 days since Election 2016 VII because I no longer trust the polls or anything else.
I'm watching the country disintegrate in a way I suppose I've always suspected would be coming.
On one hand are the voices of reason and on the other the voices of fear and fear is a powerful emotion.
For too long now Republicans have pounded away with a message intended to instill fear in its base and to blame all of the issues underlying that fear upon people who look different.
Yet nothing ever seemed to change because the message was putting the blame on people who were pretty much innocent of causing the problem. After decades of "those other people are stealing what's rightfully yours" the crows have come home to roost. The end result of that message that is the candidacy of Donald Trump.
I don't believe the polls. I believe my gut and my gut says that Trump has a good chance to pull this one out. Then what?
You can be sure that it will be nothing good and you can be sure that the poor saps that voted for him will be worse off but still being told it's the fault of people who look different.
If you tell a lie often enough and with enough conviction, even fairly intelligent people will start to believe it and Trump and the Republicans have been lying from the beginning and the lies are being believed.
I would like to document one issue and that is the 33,000 emails that were deleted.
No Clinton didn't break the law when she had those 33,000 emails deleted. She had tasked her lawyers to divide the emails on her private server into work related and private. The work related emails were turned over to the Department of State and the server contractor was directed the remaining emails in December of 2014.
The Select Committee on Benghazi did not ask for all emails on the private server to be preserved until March of 2015.
I used to delete emails all the time from my work server. Typically when the numbers got too large I would delete everything but the last three months or so. The important stuff I left tucked away in separate files.
Even the backups were eventually deleted by the IT department. We were under no obligation to save emails just in case someone decided they wanted to see them and neither was Clinton.
Anyway, so much for that lie. I'm going to stay quiet now until November 9th.
I'm watching the country disintegrate in a way I suppose I've always suspected would be coming.
On one hand are the voices of reason and on the other the voices of fear and fear is a powerful emotion.
For too long now Republicans have pounded away with a message intended to instill fear in its base and to blame all of the issues underlying that fear upon people who look different.
Yet nothing ever seemed to change because the message was putting the blame on people who were pretty much innocent of causing the problem. After decades of "those other people are stealing what's rightfully yours" the crows have come home to roost. The end result of that message that is the candidacy of Donald Trump.
I don't believe the polls. I believe my gut and my gut says that Trump has a good chance to pull this one out. Then what?
You can be sure that it will be nothing good and you can be sure that the poor saps that voted for him will be worse off but still being told it's the fault of people who look different.
If you tell a lie often enough and with enough conviction, even fairly intelligent people will start to believe it and Trump and the Republicans have been lying from the beginning and the lies are being believed.
I would like to document one issue and that is the 33,000 emails that were deleted.
No Clinton didn't break the law when she had those 33,000 emails deleted. She had tasked her lawyers to divide the emails on her private server into work related and private. The work related emails were turned over to the Department of State and the server contractor was directed the remaining emails in December of 2014.
The Select Committee on Benghazi did not ask for all emails on the private server to be preserved until March of 2015.
I used to delete emails all the time from my work server. Typically when the numbers got too large I would delete everything but the last three months or so. The important stuff I left tucked away in separate files.
Even the backups were eventually deleted by the IT department. We were under no obligation to save emails just in case someone decided they wanted to see them and neither was Clinton.
Anyway, so much for that lie. I'm going to stay quiet now until November 9th.
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Good Grief!
This just keeps getting "better and better"...NOT!
Trump is losing his mind. In last Sunday's debate he threatened to tell the Justice Department to investigate Hillary Clinton and put her in jail. Great, nothing like a two bit dictator of a banana republic sort of dance.
Now we're hearing that he felt it was his privilege to waltz into Miss Universe and Miss Teenage USA dressing rooms knowing the ladies were partially dressed. The rumor is he used this tactic to ogle girls as young as 15.
At least one contestant, a former Miss Arizona, says the accusations are true.
Personally I don't know if they're true or not but the problem, given his ego, is this is just the sort of thing you could imagine him doing.
This is utterly nuts. I've never seen anything like this.
In the meantime, on the other side, a number of leaked tapes have a Clinton aid saying some disparaging things about Catholics.
This is definitely becoming a vote for the lesser evil kind of election but Clinton is by far the lesser evil. Trump is clearly self-centered, a bully and a total pig. I wouldn't soil my hands by pulling a lever next to his name.
The polls are all over the place. At this point in time I just don't trust any of the numbers. We just need to get this nonsense over with. This whole thing is becoming a national disgrace.
Trump is losing his mind. In last Sunday's debate he threatened to tell the Justice Department to investigate Hillary Clinton and put her in jail. Great, nothing like a two bit dictator of a banana republic sort of dance.
Now we're hearing that he felt it was his privilege to waltz into Miss Universe and Miss Teenage USA dressing rooms knowing the ladies were partially dressed. The rumor is he used this tactic to ogle girls as young as 15.
At least one contestant, a former Miss Arizona, says the accusations are true.
Personally I don't know if they're true or not but the problem, given his ego, is this is just the sort of thing you could imagine him doing.
This is utterly nuts. I've never seen anything like this.
In the meantime, on the other side, a number of leaked tapes have a Clinton aid saying some disparaging things about Catholics.
This is definitely becoming a vote for the lesser evil kind of election but Clinton is by far the lesser evil. Trump is clearly self-centered, a bully and a total pig. I wouldn't soil my hands by pulling a lever next to his name.
The polls are all over the place. At this point in time I just don't trust any of the numbers. We just need to get this nonsense over with. This whole thing is becoming a national disgrace.
Sunday, October 09, 2016
The Second Debate
Given the rapidly unraveling of the Trump campaign all Clinton really needs to do tonight is not lose.
The problem with that idea is that playing it safe can often backfire. Her other option is to go for the kill.
The best way to do that, in my humble opinion, would be to focus on the questions and not spend half the night talking about Trump's expletive laden misogynistic video.
It's a town hall format so the questions are coming directly from the audience and she can expect inconvenient questions about her e-mail server, ties to Wall Street and the Clinton Foundation. Just provide honest and sincere answers and ignore the Drumpf.
If she can slide in a few Trump Triggers and bait his ass again, so much the better.
Come on Hillary, we need this one.
The problem with that idea is that playing it safe can often backfire. Her other option is to go for the kill.
The best way to do that, in my humble opinion, would be to focus on the questions and not spend half the night talking about Trump's expletive laden misogynistic video.
It's a town hall format so the questions are coming directly from the audience and she can expect inconvenient questions about her e-mail server, ties to Wall Street and the Clinton Foundation. Just provide honest and sincere answers and ignore the Drumpf.
If she can slide in a few Trump Triggers and bait his ass again, so much the better.
Come on Hillary, we need this one.
Saturday, October 08, 2016
Trump's Locker Room Language Video
A video has surfaced in which The Donald expresses opinions rarely heard outside of Middle School locker rooms or good old boy drunken binges.
To say the video is misogynistic and offensive would be giving it more credit than it deserves.
Am I surprised? A little bit. I didn't think Trump had the intellect of a 13 year old. This is a guy wearing a swollen head which leads him to say stupid stuff and not listen to people who know what they're talking about because, in his mind, how could anyone know more than him about anything?
It's beyond belief than he will survive this and still probably amass more than 40% of the vote. Evangelical Christians are still claiming he's the best candidate which, if they ever had it, certainly kicks them off of the moral high ground.
Some Republicans have, again, called upon him to withdraw but Trump has so far refused.
The party can't kick him out and besides, voting has already started, absentee ballots have already been mailed and the ballots are already printed so they're sort of stuck with him.
In his "apology" Trump claims that Hillary has "bullied and attacked women" and that "Bill Clinton has done worse" while threatening to expand on these themes in Sunday's debate.
Who cares if Hillary has "bullied and attacked women?" She's a woman so sort of even Steven there and can someone tell Trump that he's not running against Bill?
Going down this rabbit hole would be a huge mistake. His only chance is to stay on message Sunday and NOT allow himself to get baited. I'd say, given his track record and ego, the chances of that are slim and none.
Can he still win? Given the incredible stupidity of a large chunk of the American electorate, yes he can.
To say the video is misogynistic and offensive would be giving it more credit than it deserves.
Am I surprised? A little bit. I didn't think Trump had the intellect of a 13 year old. This is a guy wearing a swollen head which leads him to say stupid stuff and not listen to people who know what they're talking about because, in his mind, how could anyone know more than him about anything?
It's beyond belief than he will survive this and still probably amass more than 40% of the vote. Evangelical Christians are still claiming he's the best candidate which, if they ever had it, certainly kicks them off of the moral high ground.
Some Republicans have, again, called upon him to withdraw but Trump has so far refused.
The party can't kick him out and besides, voting has already started, absentee ballots have already been mailed and the ballots are already printed so they're sort of stuck with him.
In his "apology" Trump claims that Hillary has "bullied and attacked women" and that "Bill Clinton has done worse" while threatening to expand on these themes in Sunday's debate.
Who cares if Hillary has "bullied and attacked women?" She's a woman so sort of even Steven there and can someone tell Trump that he's not running against Bill?
Going down this rabbit hole would be a huge mistake. His only chance is to stay on message Sunday and NOT allow himself to get baited. I'd say, given his track record and ego, the chances of that are slim and none.
Can he still win? Given the incredible stupidity of a large chunk of the American electorate, yes he can.
Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Kaepernick's Protest Spills over into College Football
A number of college players and at least one marching band have decided to join in Colin Kaepernick's protest by kneeling during the national anthem. Some of the band members refused to play.
This is causing all sorts of negative reactions.
Protests are meant to make people feel uncomfortable or angry and attempt to open a dialogue. When people feel threatened they will usually look for a way to neutralize the threat. Those solutions can be either positive or negative.
I'm seeing a fair number of negative reactions. Right wing nut jobs calling for the players to be cut from the team and for coaching staffs to be fired.
ESPN in Fayetteville is taking a novel approach and protesting the protest of the East Carolina University marching band by not broadcasting the next ECU game. The band was also reportedly loudly booed at halftime as well.
Freedom of Speech does not guarantee freedom of consequences as long as those consequences are from private individuals and not the state.
The halftime boos are themselves Freedom of Speech.
Firing coaches or cutting players at a public university is probably a violation of the 1st Amendment. At a private university perhaps not so much.
The ESPN Fayetteville decision is an interesting one. They are not only reacting to the protest that occurred but are essentially insuring that a 2nd protest doesn't get a wider audience than the fans at the game.
When college students protest the presentations by alt right commentators guaranteed to deliver offensive racist or misogynistic messages by trying to have their invitations to speak revoked, they are criticized by the right wing. I don't see the ESPN decision to be much different so I'll expect to see howls of indignation about ESPN from the academic freedom crowd any day now (*cough, cough*).
So far I don't see any problem with players or band members making their concerns about the deaths of young black men at the hands of police known. I think it's an issue that needs to be brought out into the open and discussed.
From what I've seen, I think in most cases the police are acting appropriately. In most cases but not all. It will never be perfect because none of us are perfect. The question is can it be made better?
This is causing all sorts of negative reactions.
Protests are meant to make people feel uncomfortable or angry and attempt to open a dialogue. When people feel threatened they will usually look for a way to neutralize the threat. Those solutions can be either positive or negative.
I'm seeing a fair number of negative reactions. Right wing nut jobs calling for the players to be cut from the team and for coaching staffs to be fired.
ESPN in Fayetteville is taking a novel approach and protesting the protest of the East Carolina University marching band by not broadcasting the next ECU game. The band was also reportedly loudly booed at halftime as well.
Freedom of Speech does not guarantee freedom of consequences as long as those consequences are from private individuals and not the state.
The halftime boos are themselves Freedom of Speech.
Firing coaches or cutting players at a public university is probably a violation of the 1st Amendment. At a private university perhaps not so much.
The ESPN Fayetteville decision is an interesting one. They are not only reacting to the protest that occurred but are essentially insuring that a 2nd protest doesn't get a wider audience than the fans at the game.
When college students protest the presentations by alt right commentators guaranteed to deliver offensive racist or misogynistic messages by trying to have their invitations to speak revoked, they are criticized by the right wing. I don't see the ESPN decision to be much different so I'll expect to see howls of indignation about ESPN from the academic freedom crowd any day now (*cough, cough*).
So far I don't see any problem with players or band members making their concerns about the deaths of young black men at the hands of police known. I think it's an issue that needs to be brought out into the open and discussed.
From what I've seen, I think in most cases the police are acting appropriately. In most cases but not all. It will never be perfect because none of us are perfect. The question is can it be made better?
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Election 2016 VII
OK, I admit it, I got bored doing these. I started too early and the posts were too complicated. I'll be doing these less frequently until we get closer to the election. I've also switched to the 4-way RCP average including Johnson and Stein.
Here's the bottom line, the election has tightened up to be essentially a dead heat. Clinton is getting a slight bounce from her drubbing of Trump in the first debate but, at least so far, not a lot.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 60.1%, Trump - 39.9% - Trump +7.9
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 62.4%, Trump - 37.5% - Trump +6.6
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 70.0%, Trump - 30.0% - Trump +4.7
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 43.9%, Trump 41.0%, Clinton +2.9 - Clinton +0.2
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 188, Trump - 165. Undecided - 185 - Clinton -41, Trump +31
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .68, Trump .32 - Clinton -.04, Trump - +.01
A couple of interesting observations. First, the betting odds haven't changed much and one has to wonder why. Second if the 4-way numbers are even close to accurate, whoever wins this election is going to be under 50% of the vote.
George W. Bush was under 50% at 47.87% in 2000. As a matter of fact Al Gore had more popular votes with 48.38%.
In 2004 George W. Bush got 50.7% of the vote. Barack Obama got 52.9% of the vote in 2008 and 51.1% in 2012.
The lowest popular vote percentages in the post-Roosevelt era are Richard Nixon in 1972 at 43.42% and Bill Clinton in 1992 at 43.01%. The "winner" of this election could come close to those numbers.
Here's the bottom line, the election has tightened up to be essentially a dead heat. Clinton is getting a slight bounce from her drubbing of Trump in the first debate but, at least so far, not a lot.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 60.1%, Trump - 39.9% - Trump +7.9
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 62.4%, Trump - 37.5% - Trump +6.6
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 70.0%, Trump - 30.0% - Trump +4.7
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 43.9%, Trump 41.0%, Clinton +2.9 - Clinton +0.2
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 188, Trump - 165. Undecided - 185 - Clinton -41, Trump +31
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .68, Trump .32 - Clinton -.04, Trump - +.01
A couple of interesting observations. First, the betting odds haven't changed much and one has to wonder why. Second if the 4-way numbers are even close to accurate, whoever wins this election is going to be under 50% of the vote.
George W. Bush was under 50% at 47.87% in 2000. As a matter of fact Al Gore had more popular votes with 48.38%.
In 2004 George W. Bush got 50.7% of the vote. Barack Obama got 52.9% of the vote in 2008 and 51.1% in 2012.
The lowest popular vote percentages in the post-Roosevelt era are Richard Nixon in 1972 at 43.42% and Bill Clinton in 1992 at 43.01%. The "winner" of this election could come close to those numbers.
Monday, September 12, 2016
Polygamy? Well, Sort of.
The diversity in this country is unreal. This is what frightens many conservatives. This is what frightens Trump supporters. It's not the only reason Trumpettes support the Drumpf but it's one of them.
There is a court case brought by the family in the TV show "Sister Wives" that would undo a special provision of the Utah law against polygamy. Kody Brown has one legal wife but three additional "wives" which live with the couple without legal marriage status.
I'm going to skip over the irony of the law being a Utah law as well as the question of why anyone in his right mind would want four wives and get right to my understanding of the issue.
The special provision apparently prohibits co-habitation with other partners even if there is a legal marriage with just one partner. Clearly marriage to two or more partners would be bigamy which is illegal and that's not what the Browns are challenging. They're challenging the provision which prohibits additional co-habitation. Brown claims to be legally married to only one wife but "spiritually married" to the other three.
They originally won in a lower court which ruled the law violated both the right to privacy and religious freedom. An appeal court ruled that the Browns couldn't bring suit because they hadn't actually been charged with violating the law. It never ruled on the Constitutional questions.
The Utah prosecutors say they usually leave polygamists like the Browns alone but need the law in order to pursue other polygamists that engage in underage "spiritual marriage" or sexual assault.
Exactly why the laws associated with statutory rape and sexual assault aren't adequate for this purpose eludes me but I suppose proving co-habitation is easier especially if the "wives" don't want to cooperate.
The 10th Circuit refused to hear the case so the Browns are appealing it to the Supreme Court.
I suspect their chances are between slim and none given that, as the appeal court ruled, they appear to lack standing. You would need a family actually charged under the law and, given the way prosecutors claim to apply it, that might be hard to find.
There is a court case brought by the family in the TV show "Sister Wives" that would undo a special provision of the Utah law against polygamy. Kody Brown has one legal wife but three additional "wives" which live with the couple without legal marriage status.
I'm going to skip over the irony of the law being a Utah law as well as the question of why anyone in his right mind would want four wives and get right to my understanding of the issue.
The special provision apparently prohibits co-habitation with other partners even if there is a legal marriage with just one partner. Clearly marriage to two or more partners would be bigamy which is illegal and that's not what the Browns are challenging. They're challenging the provision which prohibits additional co-habitation. Brown claims to be legally married to only one wife but "spiritually married" to the other three.
They originally won in a lower court which ruled the law violated both the right to privacy and religious freedom. An appeal court ruled that the Browns couldn't bring suit because they hadn't actually been charged with violating the law. It never ruled on the Constitutional questions.
The Utah prosecutors say they usually leave polygamists like the Browns alone but need the law in order to pursue other polygamists that engage in underage "spiritual marriage" or sexual assault.
Exactly why the laws associated with statutory rape and sexual assault aren't adequate for this purpose eludes me but I suppose proving co-habitation is easier especially if the "wives" don't want to cooperate.
The 10th Circuit refused to hear the case so the Browns are appealing it to the Supreme Court.
I suspect their chances are between slim and none given that, as the appeal court ruled, they appear to lack standing. You would need a family actually charged under the law and, given the way prosecutors claim to apply it, that might be hard to find.
The 2016 NFL Season has Begun!
Oh yeah, the insanity has started.
I watched three games yesterday or, most accurately one entire game, large parts of two others and the last two minutes or so of a fourth game. Two of the four games ended with a one point margin of victory and the third and fourth came close.
I watched most of the Jets vs. Bengals game and both teams looked pretty good to me. The Bengals managed a one point win 23-22 but both teams look like they're going to be tough.
I watched the entire Giants game and almost had a heart attack at the end. Those guys are going to kill me yet. The biggest news in that game was Dak Prescott, the rookie QB of the Cowboys from Mississippi State.
He was impressive. I'd say the Cowboys no longer need fear the retirement of Tony Romo. On the Giants side Victor Cruz looked healthy and the offensive line wasn't horrendous. We'll see how things go against a tougher defense. The game was a one point affair with the Giants squeaking it out 20-19.
After the Giants game they switched to the last few minutes of the Lions vs. Colts game. The Lions led 34-28 but Andrew Luck was doing his thing and soon the score was 35-34. It could have ended as another one pointer but the Lions drove for a field goal with 4 seconds left and the Colts ended up throwing an illegal forward pass in their own end zone on the kick-off resulting in a final score of 39-35 Lions.
I then watched a fair amount of the Sunday Night Game with the Brady-less Patriots at the Cardinals. I have to tell you that Jimmy Garoppolo looked pretty good at QB for the Pats as they beat the Cardinals 23-21 in what could have also been a one point finish but the Cardinals missed a field goal at the end of the game. Garoppolo may be ready but Brady is never going to retire. He'll still be playing at 65.
The NFL has long been after parity. They want every game to be a toss-up and as close as possible. Given two one pointers in marquee games yesterday and two others that could have been I'd say they're pretty damn close to that. There was also an overtime game in Kansas City and Oakland won with a late TD and two point conversion, again by one point, over New Orleans 35-34.
I watched three games yesterday or, most accurately one entire game, large parts of two others and the last two minutes or so of a fourth game. Two of the four games ended with a one point margin of victory and the third and fourth came close.
I watched most of the Jets vs. Bengals game and both teams looked pretty good to me. The Bengals managed a one point win 23-22 but both teams look like they're going to be tough.
I watched the entire Giants game and almost had a heart attack at the end. Those guys are going to kill me yet. The biggest news in that game was Dak Prescott, the rookie QB of the Cowboys from Mississippi State.
He was impressive. I'd say the Cowboys no longer need fear the retirement of Tony Romo. On the Giants side Victor Cruz looked healthy and the offensive line wasn't horrendous. We'll see how things go against a tougher defense. The game was a one point affair with the Giants squeaking it out 20-19.
After the Giants game they switched to the last few minutes of the Lions vs. Colts game. The Lions led 34-28 but Andrew Luck was doing his thing and soon the score was 35-34. It could have ended as another one pointer but the Lions drove for a field goal with 4 seconds left and the Colts ended up throwing an illegal forward pass in their own end zone on the kick-off resulting in a final score of 39-35 Lions.
I then watched a fair amount of the Sunday Night Game with the Brady-less Patriots at the Cardinals. I have to tell you that Jimmy Garoppolo looked pretty good at QB for the Pats as they beat the Cardinals 23-21 in what could have also been a one point finish but the Cardinals missed a field goal at the end of the game. Garoppolo may be ready but Brady is never going to retire. He'll still be playing at 65.
The NFL has long been after parity. They want every game to be a toss-up and as close as possible. Given two one pointers in marquee games yesterday and two others that could have been I'd say they're pretty damn close to that. There was also an overtime game in Kansas City and Oakland won with a late TD and two point conversion, again by one point, over New Orleans 35-34.
Clinton has Pneumonia
Yup, that green stuff Hillary has been coughing up is the sign of a severe respiratory infection. Her doctors have decided it's pneumonia and have put her on antibiotics.
I've never had pneumonia but I have had bronchitis and it's no laughing matter. A mate of mine did have pneumonia and it would reappear from time to time, as he described it, by making him wake up and cough his guts up in the middle of the night.
You can die from pneumonia. An ex-secretary of mine did just that and she was still fairly young at the time.
Is this a reason to vote for Trump instead? I don't think anything short of preventing an atomic war or preventing the return of the Black Death would be a reason to vote for Trump so the answer is a resounding NO!
Is this going to hurt her in the election? Probably it will, a lot.
I've never had pneumonia but I have had bronchitis and it's no laughing matter. A mate of mine did have pneumonia and it would reappear from time to time, as he described it, by making him wake up and cough his guts up in the middle of the night.
You can die from pneumonia. An ex-secretary of mine did just that and she was still fairly young at the time.
Is this a reason to vote for Trump instead? I don't think anything short of preventing an atomic war or preventing the return of the Black Death would be a reason to vote for Trump so the answer is a resounding NO!
Is this going to hurt her in the election? Probably it will, a lot.
Saturday, September 10, 2016
Election 2016 VI
It's Saturday and time for an update.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 68.0%, Trump - 32.0% - Trump +0.9
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 70.0%, Trump - 29.9% - Trump +1.4
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 74.7%, Trump - 25.3% - Clinton +4.1
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 45.6%, Trump 42.9%, Clinton +2.7 - Clinton -1.2
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 229, Trump - 154. Undecided - 155 - Unchanged
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .72, Trump .31 - Clinton +.02, Trump - No Change
The race continues to narrow. I seriously don't get it. A while back I observed that Trump has made open bigotry acceptable. Perhaps what we're finding out is how many bigots there are in this country?
Another tidbit that's a bit worrying is I saw an analysis that says that the live poll results and internet poll results are diverging with Clinton doing better in the live polls while Trump is doing better in the anonymous internet polls.
There is a rule of thumb that says people will sometimes lie and tell a pollster what they think they should say because they don't want the pollster to think badly of them. This is sometimes called the Bradley effect. On the Internet it's anonymous so this isn't an issue.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 68.0%, Trump - 32.0% - Trump +0.9
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 70.0%, Trump - 29.9% - Trump +1.4
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 74.7%, Trump - 25.3% - Clinton +4.1
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 45.6%, Trump 42.9%, Clinton +2.7 - Clinton -1.2
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 229, Trump - 154. Undecided - 155 - Unchanged
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .72, Trump .31 - Clinton +.02, Trump - No Change
The race continues to narrow. I seriously don't get it. A while back I observed that Trump has made open bigotry acceptable. Perhaps what we're finding out is how many bigots there are in this country?
Another tidbit that's a bit worrying is I saw an analysis that says that the live poll results and internet poll results are diverging with Clinton doing better in the live polls while Trump is doing better in the anonymous internet polls.
There is a rule of thumb that says people will sometimes lie and tell a pollster what they think they should say because they don't want the pollster to think badly of them. This is sometimes called the Bradley effect. On the Internet it's anonymous so this isn't an issue.
Saturday, September 03, 2016
Election 2016 V
What a difference a week makes. Things are a lot tighter. Clinton seems to be using a sort of "run out the clock" approach which just isn't working.
Trump, despite continuing to say and do things which should end his run, continues to gain. I'm sort of at a loss as to why this is happening but it is.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 68.9%, Trump - 31.1% - Trump +4.7
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 71.5%, Trump - 28.5% - Trump +10.0
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 70.6%, Trump - 29.3% - Trump +9.8
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 46.0%, Trump 42.1%, Clinton +3.9 - Clinton -2.4
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 229, Trump - 154. Undecided - 155 - Clinton - 43. Undecided +43
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .70, Trump .31 - Clinton -.01, Trump +.03
Whatever the Clinton camp is doing, it's clearly not working. The time has come to begin to panic because Hillary is apparently blowing it big time.
Trump, despite continuing to say and do things which should end his run, continues to gain. I'm sort of at a loss as to why this is happening but it is.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 68.9%, Trump - 31.1% - Trump +4.7
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 71.5%, Trump - 28.5% - Trump +10.0
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 70.6%, Trump - 29.3% - Trump +9.8
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 46.0%, Trump 42.1%, Clinton +3.9 - Clinton -2.4
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 229, Trump - 154. Undecided - 155 - Clinton - 43. Undecided +43
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .70, Trump .31 - Clinton -.01, Trump +.03
Whatever the Clinton camp is doing, it's clearly not working. The time has come to begin to panic because Hillary is apparently blowing it big time.
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