Who is on Food Stamps?

Let's analyze the numbers. There are about 42 million people on SNAP benefits. 37% are white, 26% are black, 16% are Hispanic, 4% are Asian and 17% are "race unknown. If we assume that the "race unknown" group breaks up in the same percentages then we get  44% white, 31% black, 19%  Hispanic, and 6% Asian.

But now we have to convert this to numbers. That gives up 18.5 million white, 13 million black, 8 million Hispanic and 2.5 million Asian. But these numbers have to be considered in light of the total population. 204 million white, 48 million black, 66 million Hispanic and 19 million Asians. 

So if we look at percentage of the population, we get 9% of the white population, 27% of the black population, 12% of the Hispanic population and 13% of the Asian population.

So there's the issue. Even though numerically there are more white people on Food Stamps than any other group, it's the smallest percentage. A whopping 27% of blacks on the other hand are on Food Stamps. 

This is why there's the impression that more black people are on Food Stamps.

Stock Market Bubble?

The government is shut down, there are wars in the Ukraine and Gaza, Trump sounds like his brain is turning to mush and I still can't get my basement leak fixed, but, the Stock Market continues to soar. So much so that I'm beginning to wonder if we're not sitting on a big bubble.

There are other reasons for concern. PE ratios are above 30, inflation hit 3% last month and Trump's tariffs are still hurting international trade. But the market seems to not care that much. We've seen the occasional correction but since the first shock of the tariffs, the markets have gained like it's 1929.

Today the Dow closed at 47,544, the Nasdaq at 26,637 and the S&P 500 at 6,875. My personal portfolio is at a record $2,038,713. It's almost too good to be true, and it may be.

We've seen 1,000 points shifts already this year as Trump, or someone feeding him the dialogue, appears to be playing the market like a fiddle. 

Negotiations with China sound upbeat at the moment. Sometime this week talks should break down, Trump should threaten 200% tariffs and the market will divebomb 1,200 points. That will be right after the in crowd sells at record highs.

Gaza Ceasefire Coming Apart?

According to the Israelis they have been fired upon near the town of Rafah in southern Gaza.

The Israelis called this a blatant breach of the ceasefire and struck back targeting "weapons storage facilities, firing posts, terrorist cells" and infrastructure . They also cut off humanitarian aid.

Local health authorities reported that at least 19 people were killed in the attacks.

Hamas said that it was out of contact with fighters in Rafah and remains committed to the ceasefire.

There's an old truism that says if you don't completely destroy your enemy then you will only have to fight them again. I know that sounds barbaric but war is not exactly civilized.

But what's the point of signing a ceasefire only to break it a few days later?

Some claim that the Islamic concept of "taqiyya" not only allows Muslims to be deceitful with infidels but even requires it in certain situations. I don't know if that's true or not but it's not very encouraging.

Maybe they're just trying to make Trump look bad? Honestly, he doesn't need much help doing that.

My Basement Leak

Actually, it's the family room downstairs that has a leak in the far corner. We said, hmmm, we should probably get that fixed.

It took a while to get on it because we had other issues but eventually we called a basement waterproofing company to come and take a look. Let's call them the Basement Guys. We also decided to take this opportunity to redo the family room with new carpeting and furniture.

The Basement Guys guy was here on July 21st, gave us an estimate and wrote the job up. I gave him a check for half the amount which came to $5,858 and he said that they probably would do the job in October.

One item, which didn't strike me as a big deal at the time, was that they needed a plumber to remove and reinstall the baseboard heat. The guy asked me if I wanted to get my own plumber or use one of theirs? Since I had no idea how to describe what was required, I said I would prefer it if they got the plumber. It was understood that this would be a separate charge.

Then, sometime in August, I got a call that they could do the job on September 11th and 12th. They sent us a letter confirming the date and giving us instructions about how to prepare the room for the work. The two key items were they needed five feet of work space and we should cover any furniture in the room. That set in motion a number of things.

(1)) I called the 1-800-Got-Junk guys to come get the furniture, which was in pretty bad shape, an old sewing machine, a broken recliner from the living room, an old TV in the playroom and a number of odds and ends in the garage. That went very well.

(2) Originally they were also going to remove the old upright piano we had down there but my wife got sentimental over it and decided to keep it. OK, no big deal, we could get someone to store it for us while the carpeting was being done.

(3) I had an electrician come in to replace the ceiling light switches and made sure all the bulbs worked. It was needed and besides, they needed light to work.

(4) We removed all the pictures from the walls and put them in a container.

(5) We stored most of the stuff we were keeping and the container with the pictures in the unfinished part of the basement.

(6) We covered the piano and a bookcase we were keeping in tarps. That left the TV, the TV stand and a recliner left to be covered just before they came.

On September 10th, I was going down stairs to finish covering the remaining furniture and putting up some tarps to block dust coming upstairs when the phone rang and my problems began.

The call was from the Basement Guys. Apparently there had been a mix up about the plumber and they didn't have one available. That meant they needed to reschedule after they lined up a plumber.

OK, stuff happens, and I figured how hard could this be?

I waited a week and, after not hearing from them, I gave them a call on September 17th. I spoke to a nice lady who said that the Program Manager (PM) would give me a call back.

I waited two weeks for that call and, figuring something must have gone wrong, I called them again on October 1st. I spoke to a nice guy who said that the PM would call me back.

I waited that day, and the next day, and called again on October 2nd. I was told that the PM was at a convention in Connecticut and wouldn't be back until the next week. I said I would orbit until Monday.

I waited until the following Tuesday and called again on October 7th. I finally spoke to the PM. He told that he was having trouble located a plumber. That he kept calling and leaving messages but no one called him back. I said that I could relate to that but I don't think he got the irony. I suggested that perhaps we should just shake hands and go our separate ways but he asked that I give him until that Friday.

Now, why am I putting up with this? First, my family room has a leak which needs to be attended to. Second, remember that they originally told me October so if after canceling the initial appointment they had just told me that it would take about a month to reschedule, I would have been fat, dumb and happy. Third, they have $5,858 of my money. So, basically they have all the aces. I decided to give the PM until Friday.

Of course I heard nothing, so I called them on Monday, October 13th. I was told that the PM was out and that they would have the Owner call, Nah, no one called me.

So I called again on Tuesday, October 14th and was told that absolutely the PM would call me back.

 What do you know? He actually did. He said that he had finally located a plumber, gave me his name and number and said that he would call me to set up a visit to see what the job entailed. I asked when he was going to call and I was told that same day.

Now, do I REALLY have to tell you that I got no call from the plumber?

<<<To Be Continued>>>

Gaza War Over?

Trump has apparently helped to negotiate at least a ceasefire and perhaps a peace treaty in Gaza.

The remaining hostages have been returned in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and the IDF has withdrawn to defensive positions.

Trump seems confident and has declared the war over. It would be nice if he's right but only time will tell.

Government Still Shut Down

The government is still shut down and Trump managed to crash the market today by threatening new tariffs on China among other things. 

The Dow dropped 872 points, the Nasdaq 820 and the S&P 500 182. I personally lost over $33,000. Having a loose cannon in the White House is a real problem.

Government Shutdown

Well, the government has shut down or at least the Discretionary Funding part of it. The mandatory funding hums along.

Both sides appear to have dug their heals in but it always seems that way.

The issue is of course the Senate as the GOP controlled House has long ago given up any pretense of being an independent branch of government.

The major issue is healthcare spending. Democrats have insisted that any funding bill must extend the enhanced ACA tax credits, which are set to expire at the end of 2025. Trump and the Republicans are quite happy to let them expire.

The Republicans proposed a continuing resolution that would extend the current budget but Democrats refused to agree without their healthcare demands being met.

Trump is trying to cancel funding to blue leaning states. I figure the lawsuits over this should start any minute now.

The Market isn't impressed as all three indexes rose today after a rocky start. That will change if the shutdown drags on.