8:00 AM
Trump - 276, Harris - 223
Trump leads the popular vote 71.3 million to 66.2 million
Wisconsin put Trump over the top. Harris picked up New Hampshire.
Senate: GOP - 52, Dems - 41
Andy Kim has won in New Jersey.
Ted Cruz won easily in Texas.
Kari Lake is losing in Arizona
House: GOP - 203, Dems - 178
The GOP has flipped 5 seats and the Dems 2 so a 3 seat gain so far for the GOP.
Josh Gottheimer has won in NJ5.
Or at least he's so close to winning as to make no never mind about it. Being Trump he declared victory after winning Pennsylvania rather than waiting to hit 270. Well, I suppose I'm doing the same thing.
4:00 AM
Trump - 266, Harris - 219
Trump leads the popular vote 69.7 million to 64.4 million
Trump has taken Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. He leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Maine 2 and Alaska so it's only a matter of time. We appear to be heading for a 312-226 Trump victory. It also looks as if he might be the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004.
Senate: GOP - 51, Dems - 41
Andy Kim has won in New Jersey.
Ted Cruz won easily in Texas.
Kari Lake is losing in Arizona
House: GOP - 200, Dems - 172
The GOP has flipped 5 seats and the Dems 2 so a 3 seat gain so far for the GOP.
Josh Gottheimer has won in NJ5.
So we're heading towards a worse case scenario beyond which even I predicted. Oh well, I hope the stock market is happy.
I'm not going to stay with this very long. I'll take it to around 10 PM and then call it a night.
7:00 PM
Trump - 19, Harris - 3
Senate: GOP - 39, Dems - 28
House: GOP - 5, Dems - 1
8:00 PM
Trump - 90, Harris - 27
Trump's total includes Florida so the idiots that thought that state may have been in play can go and sit in the corner and STFU.
Senate: GOP - 42, Dems - 31
House: GOP - 40, Dems - 20
8:30 PM
Trump - 105, Harris - 30
Trump leads the popular vote 18.8 million to 15.7 million
Senate: GOP - 42, Dems - 33
Andy Kim is ahead by about 160,000 votes.
House: GOP - 54, Dems - 28
Josh Gottheimer is losing by 11,000 votes. That's not good.
9:00 PM
Trump - 154, Harris - 30
Trump leads the popular vote 22.5 million to 18.9 million
Senate: GOP - 42, Dems - 33
Andy Kim is ahead by about 200,000 votes.
House: GOP - 76, Dems - 35
Josh Gottheimer is now winning by 33,000 votes. That's better.
9:30 PM
Trump - 168, Harris - 62
Trump leads the popular vote 30.6 million to 27.6 million
Senate: GOP - 44, Dems - 34
Andy Kim is ahead by about 250,000 votes.
House: GOP - 105, Dems - 66
Josh Gottheimer is ahead by 33,000 votes.
10:00 PM
Trump - 201, Harris - 81
Trump leads the popular vote 38.0 million to 33.7 million
Senate: GOP - 44, Dems - 34
Andy Kim is ahead by about 256,000 votes.
House: GOP - 131, Dems - 84
Josh Gottheimer is ahead by 31,000 votes.
This is it. I'm going to call it a night. I will pick up whenever I wake up in the morning.
We voted this morning a little before 9 AM. We just beat a small surge of voters and basically walked right in with no wait. My daughter voted at 6 AM before going to work.
The new voting machines take a while and print out a paper ballot which you have to feed into a collection box. I liked the old machines better. They were faster and easier to use but I suppose these are more secure.
I'm not going to go crazy tonight since, despite what some sites are saying, I don't see this as much of a nail biter. I will probably sign off around 10 PM.
I figured that I would wait for the eve of the election to post my final pre-election thoughts.
Electoral Vote
Trump -246 (-32), Harris - 276 (-+35), Toss Up - 16 (-3)
Real Clear Politics
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 211 (-4), Toss Up - 108 (+4)
Real Clear Politics - No Tossups
Trump -287 (-25), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (NC)
Polling Map
Trump -219 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 93 (NC)
Polling Map - No Tossups
Trump -287, Harris - 251, Toss Up - 0
538 Model
Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (NC)
JHK Forecasts
Trump -262 (NC), Harris - 226 (NC), Toss Up - 50 (NC)
Polymarket Odds
Trump -287 (-25), Harris - 251 (+25), Toss Up - 0 (NC)
I don't see enough to change my opinion that Trump will win probably with a 287-251 electoral vote victory. Electoral Vote flipped back to Harris but the overestimated Biden in 2020 by quite a lot so I don't see that as significant.
I added "Polling Map - No Tossups" and it came in at 287-251 as well. The only glimmer of hope that I see for Harris is things slid slightly in her direction but I don't see enough of a change especially given the amount of early voting that has occurred.
Now let's look at the Senate and House for a second. Electoral Vote has the GOP taking the Senate 52-48 and Real Clear Politics has them also winning 52-48. RCP has the GOP ahead in the House 201-192 with 42 tossups.
