Beware of Greeks Bearing Gifts

Things get pretty strange at times. Today a purple box arrived from my health insurance company. Actually, it's my wife policy so that make it even stranger.

I figured that I would find inside a massive book with information I didn't need and rules and regulations that I couldn't understand.

Wrong again Ollie. What I found inside was a collection of "stuff."

- Two reusable cloth masks.

- 25 Honey Lemon cough drops.

- One 8 oz bottle of SPF 50 sunscreen.

- One roll of Pain-Free Wrap.

- One chapstick.

- One box of 20 bandaids.

- One 0.5 oz bottle of eye moisturizer

- One oral thermometer,

- One pill organizer.

- One pill cutter.

- One Toothbrush.

- 4m of dental floss.

- One 3 oz tube of Radiant Mint toothpaste.

- One 8 oz bottle of antiseptic skin cleanser.

- One 3 oz bottle of hand sanitizer.

- One 8 oz bottle of hand sanitizer.

The only explanation was a folder saying "free for you" with a large word search puzzle. They must have sent this box to literally millions of people. We're wondering if my wife is going to get one as well since it is her policy.

So, tell me again how insurance companies aren't making oodles of money.

The State of the Polling

I have a number of "prediction" site addresses tucked away. I'm going to record their numbers over the next couple of days to see who says what and if I can detect any late trend. In places where there are two it's a current and a projection. Sometimes it's a win probability, sometimes popular vote is projected as well.

RealClearPolitics

Biden - 216 - 125 with 197 Tossups

Biden - 345 - 193

FiveThirtyEight

Biden - 89%, Trump - 10%, Tie - 1%

Election Projection

Biden - 307 - 231

Popular Vote - Biden 49.1% - 45.9%

ElectoralVote

Biden - 356 - 164 with one Tie (Ohio)

The Economist

Biden - 97%, Trump - 3%

Biden - 352 - 186

Financial Times

Biden - 273 - 125 with 140 Tossups

Popular Vote - Biden 51.9% - 43.1%

PredictIt

Biden - 66 cents, Trump - 40 cents

Clearly there is a significant range of opinions here yet all seem to claim they're using the same inputs. I suppose that we shall see what we shall see.

So, what about the election?

After 2016 I'm loathe to make any predictions although I did suspect that Trump was going to pull an upset then because the trends were clearly moving in that direction.

On November 7th, 2016 I said:

"As for the presidency, I don't like the numbers I see. I think Trump has the inside track and based upon my most recent analysis he wins by a ridiculously close 270-268."

So, I had the winner but blew it on the scope of the win.

People keep talking about how wrong the polls were in 2016 but they weren't really that wrong. The popular vote came out about where predicted. Some of the state polls were off and that's where things came apart.

The Trafalgar Group, who correctly predicted 2016, thinks the pollsters are going to have an even bigger debacle this time around. They're claiming that Trump will win thanks to what they're calling "shy Trump voters."

This is similar to the Bradley effect where people won't tell pollsters that they're not voting for a black man. This Bradley effect was much ballyhooed in 2008 and 2012 only to turn out to be pure myth.

In this case people are supposedly ashamed that they're voting for Trump so they lie or they're purposely misleading the pollster.

The idea that people are ashamed they're voting doesn't seem right. I haven't seen all that many Trump supporters not being very open about their choice. This would only make sense in live polls and Biden does do better in live polls. But it doesn't explain the Internet polling and other anonymous poll results.

The idea that people are lying to mislead the pollsters strikes me as more probable and wouldn't surprise me one bit.

So what do I think?

I think it's going to be a mess especially with the huge number of mail-in ballots. My fear is that Trump will eke out another electoral count victory while again losing the popular vote. Five-Thirty-Eight thinks he has about a 10% chance to win and several other analysists seem to think that we will in fact get another electoral vote vs. popular vote contradiction in Trump's favor.

I hope they're wrong. I think four more years of Trump would cause an enormous amount of damage.

The Corona Virus, October 26, 2020

 There are currently 8,813,753 reported case in the US and 229,432 deaths.

California has 906,106 cases and 17,359 deaths
Texas has 882,029 cases and 17,594 deaths
Florida has 782,159 cases and 16,457 deaths
New York has 501,322 cases and 33,422 deaths
Illinois has 374,271 cases and 9,508 deaths

California has now passed 900,000 cases.

US Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 196,983, 155.5%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 226,490, 66.7%
April 13 - April 19 -- 206,029, 36.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 215,086, 27.9%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 198,464, 20.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 175,910, 14.8%
May 11 -- May 17 ---  158,286, 11.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---  161,280, 10.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---  149,072,  8.9%
June 1 -  June   7 --- 156,692,  8.6%
June 8 - June 14 --- 153,114,   7.2%
June 15 -June 21 --  190,901,  8.9%
June 22 -June 28 -- 274,422, 11.8%
June 29 - July 5    -- 350,566,  13.5%
July 6 - July 12    --  424,163,  14.3%
July 13 - July 19  --  478,255,  14.1%
July 20 -July 26  --  471,082, 10.9%
July 27 -Aug 2     --  441,956, 11.3%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --  382,710,  8.7%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --  358,990,  7.0%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --  303,731,  5.5%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  -- 296,147,  5.1%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     -- 291,480,  4.8%

Sep  7 -  Sep 13   -- 249,208,  3.9%

Sep  14 -Sep 20  -- 280,009,  4.2%

Sep  21 -Sep 27  -- 295,657,   4.3%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- 309.090,  4.3%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- 352.034,   4.7%

Oct 12 -Oct 18  --- 392,336,  5.0%

Oct 19 -Oct 25  --- 485,251,  5.9%

This is the highest number of weekly cases nationally since I started keeping track. Everyone seems to have completely given up trying to suppress this thing and relying on people following social distancing guidelines, wearing masks and the availability of a vaccine.

Unfortunately the number of people ignoring the recommendations on distancing and masks still seems to be significant.

New Jersey Cases, Percentage Increase and Positive Tests
March 30 - April 5 -- 24,119, 180.2%, 51.8%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 24,345, 64.9%, 54.6%
April 13 - April 19 -- 23,451, 37.9%, 53.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 23,737, 27.8%, 45.3%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 17,706, 16.2%, 34.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 11,788,   9.3%, 31.5%
May 11 -- May 17 ---   7,802,   5.6%, 12.7%
May 18 - May 24 ---   7,820,   5.3%,  6.7%
May 25 - May 31 ---   6,291,    4.1%,  3.7%
June 1 -  June  7 ----  3,719,    2.3%,  2.0%
June 8 - June 14 ---   2,717,    1.7%,  2.0% 
June 15 -June 21 ---   2,261,   1.4%,  1.3%
June 22 -June 28 --- 2,040,   1.2%,  1.4%
June 29 -July 5   ---  2,220,   1.3%,  1.5%
July 6 -   July 12 ---   1,896,   1.1%,  1.3%
July 13 -July 19    ---  1,485,  0.8%, 1.4%
July 20 -July 26   ---  2,580, 1.5%,  1.6%
July 27 -Aug 2     ----  2,987, 1.7%,  1.6%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     ----  2,423,  1.3%, 1.6%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  ----- 2,682, 1.5%, 1.4%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  ----  2,039, 1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --- -2,117,  1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---  2,447,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---  2,576,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  14-Sep 20     --- 3,128,  1.6%, 1.7%

Sep  21-Sep 27     --- 3,786,  1.9%, 2.0%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- --4,654,  2.3%, 2.4%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- --5.426,  2.6%, 2.6%

Oct 12 -Oct 18 --- --6,385,  3.0%, 2.7%

Oct 19 -Oct 25 --- --8,455,  3.8%, 4.1%

Things are getting worse and worse in New Jersey. There were almost 2,000 new cases reported on Saturday. I now believe that we're seeing a second wave.

Bergen County Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 4,018, 185.2%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 3,597, 58.1%
April 13 - April 19 --  2,855, 29.2%
April 20 - April 26 -- 2,326, 18.4%
April 27 - May 3 ----  1,220, 8.2%
May 4 - May 10  ----    744, 4.6%
May 11 -- May 17 ---    432,  2.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---    443,  2.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---    468,  2.6%
June 1 - June 7 ------  240,  1.3%
June 8 - June 14 ---    306,  1.7%
June 15 -June 21 ---   192,   1.0%
June 22 -June 28 ---  344,   1.8%
June 29 -July 5     ---  271,   1.4%
July 6 -July 12    ---    246,   1.3%
July 13 -July 19  --      109,   0.5%
July 20-July 26  --      246,  1.2%
July 27 -Aug 2     --     295,  1.5%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --     273,  1.3%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --     401,  1.9%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --     131,  0.6% Dashboard New Cases = 234

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --    231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 261

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---   231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 253

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---   178,  0.8% Dashboard New Cases = 244

Sep  14 -Sep 20     --- 202,  0.9% Dashboard New Cases = 251

Sep  21 -Sep 27     --- 238,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 294

Sep  28 -Oct 4  ------ 328,  1.5% Dashboard New Cases = 357

Oct   5 -Oct 11  ------ 439,  1.9% Dashboard New Cases = 440

Oct 12 -Oct 18 ------ 565,  2.4% Dashboard New Cases = 574

Oct 19 -Oct 25 ------ 789,  3.3% Dashboard New Cases = 794

The Bergen County increases are tracking the New Jersey numbers. Ocean County is no longer the major hot spot. Things are bad all over.

I don't know where this is all heading but it doesn't look good.

I Have Voted

 My vote is in and for the first time in my life by mail. Or rather by dropping it into a Drop Box in Old Tappan.

I doubt they could have made filling out the ballot any more complicated. I even missed the questions on the back. Then again, I really didn't have an opinion on them anyway.

The Corona Virus, October 19, 2020

There are currently 8,316,535 reported case in the US and 219,095 deaths.

California has 875,291 cases and 16,978 deaths
Texas has 844,915 cases and 17,191 deaths
Florida has 755,022 cases and 15,969 deaths
New York has 490,081 cases and 33,357 deaths
Illinois has 344,045 cases and 9,214 deaths

Illinois has now passed Georgia in number of cases.

US Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 196,983, 155.5%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 226,490, 66.7%
April 13 - April 19 -- 206,029, 36.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 215,086, 27.9%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 198,464, 20.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 175,910, 14.8%
May 11 -- May 17 ---  158,286, 11.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---  161,280, 10.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---  149,072,  8.9%
June 1 -  June   7 --- 156,692,  8.6%
June 8 - June 14 --- 153,114,   7.2%
June 15 -June 21 --  190,901,  8.9%
June 22 -June 28 -- 274,422, 11.8%
June 29 - July 5    -- 350,566,  13.5%
July 6 - July 12    --  424,163,  14.3%
July 13 - July 19  --  478,255,  14.1%
July 20 -July 26  --  471,082, 10.9%
July 27 -Aug 2     --  441,956, 11.3%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --  382,710,  8.7%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --  358,990,  7.0%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --  303,731,  5.5%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  -- 296,147,  5.1%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     -- 291,480,  4.8%

Sep  7 -  Sep 13   -- 249,208,  3.9%

Sep  14 -Sep 20  -- 280,009,  4.2%

Sep  21 -Sep 27  -- 295,657,   4.3%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- 309.090,  4.3%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- 352.034,   4.7%

Oct 12 -Oct 18  --- 392,336,  5.0%

Again the numbers are up significantly and we haven't even gotten into the colder weather yet. At least two drug companies are making noises about a vaccine ready by the end of November. How long it will take the FDA to approve it an how long to get it distributed I have no idea,

New Jersey Cases, Percentage Increase and Positive Tests
March 30 - April 5 -- 24,119, 180.2%, 51.8%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 24,345, 64.9%, 54.6%
April 13 - April 19 -- 23,451, 37.9%, 53.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 23,737, 27.8%, 45.3%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 17,706, 16.2%, 34.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 11,788,   9.3%, 31.5%
May 11 -- May 17 ---   7,802,   5.6%, 12.7%
May 18 - May 24 ---   7,820,   5.3%,  6.7%
May 25 - May 31 ---   6,291,    4.1%,  3.7%
June 1 -  June  7 ----  3,719,    2.3%,  2.0%
June 8 - June 14 ---   2,717,    1.7%,  2.0% 
June 15 -June 21 ---   2,261,   1.4%,  1.3%
June 22 -June 28 --- 2,040,   1.2%,  1.4%
June 29 -July 5   ---  2,220,   1.3%,  1.5%
July 6 -   July 12 ---   1,896,   1.1%,  1.3%
July 13 -July 19    ---  1,485,  0.8%, 1.4%
July 20 -July 26   ---  2,580, 1.5%,  1.6%
July 27 -Aug 2     ----  2,987, 1.7%,  1.6%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     ----  2,423,  1.3%, 1.6%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  ----- 2,682, 1.5%, 1.4%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  ----  2,039, 1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --- -2,117,  1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---  2,447,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---  2,576,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  14-Sep 20     --- 3,128,  1.6%, 1.7%

Sep  21-Sep 27     --- 3,786,  1.9%, 2.0%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- --4,654,  2.3%, 2.4%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- --5.426,  2.6%, 2.6%

Oct 12 -Oct 18 --- --6,385,  3.0%, 2.7%

New Jersey is back to where it was in May and moving in the wrong direction. There were almost 1,300 new cases reported yesterday.

Bergen County Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 4,018, 185.2%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 3,597, 58.1%
April 13 - April 19 --  2,855, 29.2%
April 20 - April 26 -- 2,326, 18.4%
April 27 - May 3 ----  1,220, 8.2%
May 4 - May 10  ----    744, 4.6%
May 11 -- May 17 ---    432,  2.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---    443,  2.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---    468,  2.6%
June 1 - June 7 ------  240,  1.3%
June 8 - June 14 ---    306,  1.7%
June 15 -June 21 ---   192,   1.0%
June 22 -June 28 ---  344,   1.8%
June 29 -July 5     ---  271,   1.4%
July 6 -July 12    ---    246,   1.3%
July 13 -July 19  --      109,   0.5%
July 20-July 26  --      246,  1.2%
July 27 -Aug 2     --     295,  1.5%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --     273,  1.3%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --     401,  1.9%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --     131,  0.6% Dashboard New Cases = 234

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --    231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 261

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---   231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 253

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---   178,  0.8% Dashboard New Cases = 244

Sep  14 -Sep 20     --- 202,  0.9% Dashboard New Cases = 251

Sep  21 -Sep 27     --- 238,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 294

Sep  28 -Oct 4  ------ 328,  1.5% Dashboard New Cases = 357

Oct   5 -Oct 11  ------ 439,  1.9% Dashboard New Cases = 440

Oct 12 -Oct 18 ------ 565,  2.4% Dashboard New Cases = 574

Bergen County is back to where it was in the early May timeframe as well.

Things look to be spiraling out of control again. I suspect it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

The Corona Virus, October 12, 2020

 There are currently 7,932,763 reported case in the US and 219,095 deaths.

California has 854,897 cases and 16,581 deaths
Texas has 810,678 cases and 16,711 deaths
Florida has 736,025 cases and 15,412 deaths
New York has 479,991 cases and 33,294 deaths
Georgia has 333,345 cases and 7,437 deaths

No changes in format this week but it's the middle of October and I can't believe I'm still doing this shit.

US Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 196,983, 155.5%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 226,490, 66.7%
April 13 - April 19 -- 206,029, 36.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 215,086, 27.9%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 198,464, 20.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 175,910, 14.8%
May 11 -- May 17 ---  158,286, 11.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---  161,280, 10.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---  149,072,  8.9%
June 1 -  June   7 --- 156,692,  8.6%
June 8 - June 14 --- 153,114,   7.2%
June 15 -June 21 --  190,901,  8.9%
June 22 -June 28 -- 274,422, 11.8%
June 29 - July 5    -- 350,566,  13.5%
July 6 - July 12    --  424,163,  14.3%
July 13 - July 19  --  478,255,  14.1%
July 20 -July 26  --  471,082, 10.9%
July 27 -Aug 2     --  441,956, 11.3%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --  382,710,  8.7%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --  358,990,  7.0%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --  303,731,  5.5%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  -- 296,147,  5.1%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     -- 291,480,  4.8%

Sep  7 -  Sep 13   -- 249,208,  3.9%

Sep  14 -Sep 20  -- 280,009,  4.2%

Sep  21 -Sep 27  -- 295,657,   4.3%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- 309.090,  4.3%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- 352.034,  4.7%

The numbers are up significantly. 

New Jersey Cases, Percentage Increase and Positive Tests
March 30 - April 5 -- 24,119, 180.2%, 51.8%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 24,345, 64.9%, 54.6%
April 13 - April 19 -- 23,451, 37.9%, 53.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 23,737, 27.8%, 45.3%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 17,706, 16.2%, 34.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 11,788,   9.3%, 31.5%
May 11 -- May 17 ---   7,802,   5.6%, 12.7%
May 18 - May 24 ---   7,820,   5.3%,  6.7%
May 25 - May 31 ---   6,291,    4.1%,  3.7%
June 1 -  June  7 ----  3,719,    2.3%,  2.0%
June 8 - June 14 ---   2,717,    1.7%,  2.0% 
June 15 -June 21 ---   2,261,   1.4%,  1.3%
June 22 -June 28 --- 2,040,   1.2%,  1.4%
June 29 -July 5   ---  2,220,   1.3%,  1.5%
July 6 -   July 12 ---   1,896,   1.1%,  1.3%
July 13 -July 19    ---  1,485,  0.8%, 1.4%
July 20 -July 26   ---  2,580, 1.5%,  1.6%
July 27 -Aug 2     ----  2,987, 1.7%,  1.6%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     ----  2,423,  1.3%, 1.6%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  ----- 2,682, 1.5%, 1.4%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  ----  2,039, 1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --- -2,117,  1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---  2,447,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---  2,576,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  14-Sep 20     --- 3,128,  1.6%, 1.7%

Sep  21-Sep 27     --- 3,786,  1.9%, 2.0%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- --4,654,  2.3%, 2.4%

Oct   5 -Oct 11  --- --5.426,  2.6%, 2.6%

New Jersey had another big jump. At least now we're hearing concern being expressed in Trenton. The health department is calling this a second wave. I'm not sure about that.

Bergen County Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 4,018, 185.2%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 3,597, 58.1%
April 13 - April 19 --  2,855, 29.2%
April 20 - April 26 -- 2,326, 18.4%
April 27 - May 3 ----  1,220, 8.2%
May 4 - May 10  ----    744, 4.6%
May 11 -- May 17 ---    432,  2.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---    443,  2.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---    468,  2.6%
June 1 - June 7 ------  240,  1.3%
June 8 - June 14 ---    306,  1.7%
June 15 -June 21 ---   192,   1.0%
June 22 -June 28 ---  344,   1.8%
June 29 -July 5     ---  271,   1.4%
July 6 -July 12    ---    246,   1.3%
July 13 -July 19  --      109,   0.5%
July 20-July 26  --      246,  1.2%
July 27 -Aug 2     --     295,  1.5%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --     273,  1.3%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --     401,  1.9%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --     131,  0.6% Dashboard New Cases = 234

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --    231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 261

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---   231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 253

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---   178,  0.8% Dashboard New Cases = 244

Sep  14 -Sep 20     --- 202,  0.9% Dashboard New Cases = 251

Sep  21 -Sep 27     --- 238,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 294

Sep  28 -Oct 4  ------ 328,  1.5% Dashboard New Cases = 357

Oct   5 -Oct 11  ------ 439,  1.9% Dashboard New Cases = 440

Bergen County had a big jump as well. 

So I went and got my flu shot. I then had a sore arm for two days. I still don't feel 100% OK but it also got a bit colder and that shoulder is famous for giving me issues in the cold. I did dislocate it three times and had to have surgery. I imagine if a doctor ever got a look at it I'd be in trouble.

The Corona Virus, October 5, 2020

 There are currently 7,582,293 reported case in the US and 214,025 deaths.

California has 832,110 cases and 16,150 deaths
Texas has 783,307 and 16,140 deaths
Florida has 717,874 cases and 14,722 deaths
New York has 470,323 cases and 33,205 deaths
Georgia has 324,151 cases and 7,169 deaths

No changes in format this week but it's the end of September and I can't believe I'm still doing this shit.

US Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 196,983, 155.5%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 226,490, 66.7%
April 13 - April 19 -- 206,029, 36.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 215,086, 27.9%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 198,464, 20.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 175,910, 14.8%
May 11 -- May 17 ---  158,286, 11.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---  161,280, 10.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---  149,072,  8.9%
June 1 -  June   7 --- 156,692,  8.6%
June 8 - June 14 --- 153,114,   7.2%
June 15 -June 21 --  190,901,  8.9%
June 22 -June 28 -- 274,422, 11.8%
June 29 - July 5    -- 350,566,  13.5%
July 6 - July 12    --  424,163,  14.3%
July 13 - July 19  --  478,255,  14.1%
July 20 -July 26  --  471,082, 10.9%
July 27 -Aug 2     --  441,956, 11.3%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --  382,710,  8.7%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --  358,990,  7.0%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --  303,731,  5.5%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  -- 296,147,  5.1%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     -- 291,480,  4.8%

Sep  7 -  Sep 13   -- 249,208,  3.9%

Sep  14 -Sep 20  -- 280,009,  4.2%

Sep  21 -Sep 27  -- 295,657,   4.3%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- 309.090,  4.3%

The numbers are up again but  states continue to open.

New Jersey Cases, Percentage Increase and Positive Tests
March 30 - April 5 -- 24,119, 180.2%, 51.8%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 24,345, 64.9%, 54.6%
April 13 - April 19 -- 23,451, 37.9%, 53.4%
April 20 - April 26 -- 23,737, 27.8%, 45.3%
April 27 - May 3 ---- 17,706, 16.2%, 34.1%
May 4 - May 10 ----- 11,788,   9.3%, 31.5%
May 11 -- May 17 ---   7,802,   5.6%, 12.7%
May 18 - May 24 ---   7,820,   5.3%,  6.7%
May 25 - May 31 ---   6,291,    4.1%,  3.7%
June 1 -  June  7 ----  3,719,    2.3%,  2.0%
June 8 - June 14 ---   2,717,    1.7%,  2.0% 
June 15 -June 21 ---   2,261,   1.4%,  1.3%
June 22 -June 28 --- 2,040,   1.2%,  1.4%
June 29 -July 5   ---  2,220,   1.3%,  1.5%
July 6 -   July 12 ---   1,896,   1.1%,  1.3%
July 13 -July 19    ---  1,485,  0.8%, 1.4%
July 20 -July 26   ---  2,580, 1.5%,  1.6%
July 27 -Aug 2     ----  2,987, 1.7%,  1.6%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     ----  2,423,  1.3%, 1.6%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  ----- 2,682, 1.5%, 1.4%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  ----  2,039, 1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --- -2,117,  1.1%,  1.2%

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---  2,447,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---  2,576,  1.3%, 1.5%

Sep  14-Sep 20     --- 3,128,  1.6%, 1.7%

Sep  21-Sep 27     --- 3,786,  1.9%, 2.0%

Sep  28 -Oct 4  --- --4,654,  4.3%, 2.4%

New Jersey had another big jump. Even without Ocean County, which had 1,130 cases, the numbers were the highest since early June. The curve is looking like it did in March but, at least so far, I haven't heard anything from Trenton about rolling back things.

Bergen County Cases and Percentage Increase
March 30 - April 5 -- 4,018, 185.2%
April 6 - April 12 ---- 3,597, 58.1%
April 13 - April 19 --  2,855, 29.2%
April 20 - April 26 -- 2,326, 18.4%
April 27 - May 3 ----  1,220, 8.2%
May 4 - May 10  ----    744, 4.6%
May 11 -- May 17 ---    432,  2.6%
May 18 - May 24 ---    443,  2.6%
May 25 - May 31 ---    468,  2.6%
June 1 - June 7 ------  240,  1.3%
June 8 - June 14 ---    306,  1.7%
June 15 -June 21 ---   192,   1.0%
June 22 -June 28 ---  344,   1.8%
June 29 -July 5     ---  271,   1.4%
July 6 -July 12    ---    246,   1.3%
July 13 -July 19  --      109,   0.5%
July 20-July 26  --      246,  1.2%
July 27 -Aug 2     --     295,  1.5%

Aug 3 -  Aug 9     --     273,  1.3%

Aug 10 - Aug 16  --     401,  1.9%

Aug 17 - Aug 23  --     131,  0.6% Dashboard New Cases = 234

Aug 24 - Aug 30  --    231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 261

Aug 31 - Sep 6     ---   231,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 253

Sep  7 - Sep 13     ---   178,  0.8% Dashboard New Cases = 244

Sep  14 -Sep 20     --- 202,  0.9% Dashboard New Cases = 251

Sep  21 -Sep 27     --- 238,  1.1% Dashboard New Cases = 294

Sep  28 -Oct 4  ------ 328,  1.5% Dashboard New Cases = 357

Bergen County is up as well. I think Murphy needs to consider doing something. What a lousy birthday present.

The virus is apparently racing through Trump's Chumps like wildfire. The White House is becoming something of a hotspot. Even Chris Christie has tested positive. Ah well, that's just another piece of chaos in this year of chaos.

Trump has the Virus

 I have to admit that when I first heard this my immediate reaction was skepticism. I thought for sure that this was some sort of scam. He either figured it would help him get votes or give him and excuse to drop of the race while claiming he would have won if he stayed.

But this quickly gave way to figuring out that he had a mild case. He was taken to Walter Reed out of an "abundance of caution" which is to say that he probably was having trouble breathing but didn't want the public to know about it.

Mark Meadows was giving more dire indications and apparently Trump is really pissed at him. Meadows should make sure that his resume is up to date.

The latest news is he'll be released tomorrow and can get back to being a full time asshole.