As I said before; there are two ways to look at this. One way is theoretical and the other is practical.
This Ukraine mess changes the equation. If the House didn't begin an impeachment investigation over this then they would be in dereliction of their responsibilities. So it's time to damn the torpedoes, do the right thing and let the chips fall where they may.
But investigating is one thing and voting articles of impeachment is another. I think they would need really hard evidence of wrong doing and that evidence would have to be understandable by the American public without complicated explanations from legal experts.
On the practical side, regardless of how much evidence they come up with, is there any realistic chance of getting the two thirds majority in the Senate for a conviction? I suspect things would have to get really bad for that to happen.
There are a number of ways this could go.
1. The investigation peters out and articles of impeachment are never introduced or they're introduced by one of the wide eyed progressives and they're not approved. I suspect this is the most likely scenario.
2. Articles of impeachment can be passed in the House but the Senate acquits. This is the second most likely outcome.
3. Trump strikes a deal and resigns in exchange for some sort of immunity from something. I don't think there is much chance of this happening. Trump is too much of a narcissist.
4. Pence and the "principal officers of the executive department" invoke section 4 of the 25th Amendment and remove Trump from office. I suspect this is only slightly more likely than Trump resigning.
5. Articles of impeachment are passed in the House and the Senate convicts. The proverbial snowball in hell would have a better chance.
The impeachment process will be an issue in the 2020 elections regardless of what happens. Who it will help and who it will hurt is not at all clear.
Monday, September 30, 2019
Thursday, September 26, 2019
Calling the Ukraine, come in Ukraine
Trump is a piece of work. I have said that while I don't necessarily disagree with all of his policies, I consider him a classless buffoon.
But he's canny. He reminds me of a street wise numbers runner who's just smart enough not to say anything anyone can pin on his sorry rear end.
If you look at the partial transcript of Trump's conversation with the Ukrainian president, he doesn't specifically tie military aid to them doing a political favor for him but it's certainly strongly implied.
Only an idiot, or a Republican, can't see what's going on.
But he's canny. He reminds me of a street wise numbers runner who's just smart enough not to say anything anyone can pin on his sorry rear end.
If you look at the partial transcript of Trump's conversation with the Ukrainian president, he doesn't specifically tie military aid to them doing a political favor for him but it's certainly strongly implied.
Only an idiot, or a Republican, can't see what's going on.
Netanyahu gets the First Shot
Despite Blue and White gaining one more seat, Netanyahu's failure to form a government in April and a series of corruption charges pending, Netanyahu was given the nod by Israeli president Rivlin to try and form a coalition government.
Apparently a poll of all the Knesset members showed a plurality choosing Netanyahu and so off we go.
Avigdor Lieberman, head of the Yisrael Beitenu party, has said he will not form a government with the ultra-religious parties and I don't see how Bibi can form one without them unless (1) he comes to some sort of agreement for a unity coalition with Gantz or (2) Lieberman changes his mind.
Both Gantz and Lieberman have insisted they will not join a governement with Likud unless Netanyahu steps down.
Apparently a poll of all the Knesset members showed a plurality choosing Netanyahu and so off we go.
Avigdor Lieberman, head of the Yisrael Beitenu party, has said he will not form a government with the ultra-religious parties and I don't see how Bibi can form one without them unless (1) he comes to some sort of agreement for a unity coalition with Gantz or (2) Lieberman changes his mind.
Both Gantz and Lieberman have insisted they will not join a governement with Likud unless Netanyahu steps down.
The Daniel Jones Era Begins
Well, well, Danny Dimes looked pretty good against the Bucs. He threw for over 300 yards with 2 TDs and no picks. He also ran for 2 TDs including the eventual winner.
Basically the defense blew the game but the Tampa Bay kicker was worse and missed a 34 yard field goal with no time left. That left the Giants with a 32-31 win.
Hey, I'd rather be lucky than good.
On the downside Saquon Barkley suffered a high ankle sprain which will put him out for 4-8 weeks. Wayne Gallman says he's ready for the challenge.
Obviously Jones is going to have some ugly games in the future. It could be a different story against the Redskins Sunday but at least there looks to be some light at the end of the tunnel.
The offensive line still needs some shoring up and the defense has lots of issues starting with the defensive line and the safeties.
This is clearly a throw away year. All we can hope for is that some of the rookies develop.
Basically the defense blew the game but the Tampa Bay kicker was worse and missed a 34 yard field goal with no time left. That left the Giants with a 32-31 win.
Hey, I'd rather be lucky than good.
On the downside Saquon Barkley suffered a high ankle sprain which will put him out for 4-8 weeks. Wayne Gallman says he's ready for the challenge.
Obviously Jones is going to have some ugly games in the future. It could be a different story against the Redskins Sunday but at least there looks to be some light at the end of the tunnel.
The offensive line still needs some shoring up and the defense has lots of issues starting with the defensive line and the safeties.
This is clearly a throw away year. All we can hope for is that some of the rookies develop.
Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Netanyahu on the Ropes
Exit polling in Israel is showing a very close race but the rival Blue and White holding a slight lead. Neither party will get a majority so a second round of coalition bargaining will begin.
It's not clear who Israeli president Reuven Rivlin will ask to form a government. He went with Netanyahu in April and that didn't work out.
It looks as if Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu party, a right of center secular party, might be in a position to play king maker but it's unclear where the other seats will come from.
It's not clear who Israeli president Reuven Rivlin will ask to form a government. He went with Netanyahu in April and that didn't work out.
It looks as if Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu party, a right of center secular party, might be in a position to play king maker but it's unclear where the other seats will come from.
Daniel Jones Time Has Come (perhaps)
Well, after two pretty awful performances all around the Giants are 0-2 and have probably concluded that they're not going anywhere this season with an awful defense and questionable receiving corp.
Therefore they have decided to hand the keys over to Daniel Jones.
I don't think they expect miracles but they're going to see if they have the future franchise quarterback or not.
Good luck Daniel.
As for Eli, I suppose it was too much to ask him to carry the team with so little support around him. I watched both games and he isn't the reason they lost.
They lost due to the lack of anything resembling defense, a fair number of dropped passes and the sort of bad breaks that always seem to plague bad football teams and, make no mistake about it, this is a bad football team.
Still, the future always comes eventually. I was there when Manning replaced Kurt Warner but I'll have to watch this one on television.
Therefore they have decided to hand the keys over to Daniel Jones.
I don't think they expect miracles but they're going to see if they have the future franchise quarterback or not.
Good luck Daniel.
As for Eli, I suppose it was too much to ask him to carry the team with so little support around him. I watched both games and he isn't the reason they lost.
They lost due to the lack of anything resembling defense, a fair number of dropped passes and the sort of bad breaks that always seem to plague bad football teams and, make no mistake about it, this is a bad football team.
Still, the future always comes eventually. I was there when Manning replaced Kurt Warner but I'll have to watch this one on television.
Tuesday, September 10, 2019
Israeli September Election
The disadvantage of a parliamentary system is you can end up with election fatigue.
Netanyahu failed to build a ruling coalition after April's election so they're going to try it again this month.
Netanyahu and Likud are pretty much playing the same hand as the last time around, name dropping Trump every two minutes and promising to annex parts of the West Bank.
This time around however he's identified the Jordan Valley, which runs along the border with Jordan, as the first annexation target and claims this has the support of the Trump administration.
Any US support for a unilateral annexation, which would be widely viewed in the global community as illegal, would be temporary if a Democrat unseats Trump in 2020.
In the meantime, an election rally with a scheduled speech by Netanyahu was delayed as Bibi was ushered off stage to avoid two rockets fired from Gaza. I think I would have stayed on stage and taken my chances considering how close this election appears to be.
Don't expect Blue and White, Netanyahu's main opponent in the election, to run to the negotiating tables either as they have clearly indicated that the security of the state of Israel will be their first concern.
Based on the polls Likud and Blue and White appear neck and neck in the September 17 election but it looks like Likud might have the upper hand in forming a majority coalition.
Israel's president, Reuven Rivlin, will decide which party leader has the best chance of putting together a majority coalition and that party will have a little over a month to form a government.
Netanyahu failed to build a ruling coalition after April's election so they're going to try it again this month.
Netanyahu and Likud are pretty much playing the same hand as the last time around, name dropping Trump every two minutes and promising to annex parts of the West Bank.
This time around however he's identified the Jordan Valley, which runs along the border with Jordan, as the first annexation target and claims this has the support of the Trump administration.
Any US support for a unilateral annexation, which would be widely viewed in the global community as illegal, would be temporary if a Democrat unseats Trump in 2020.
In the meantime, an election rally with a scheduled speech by Netanyahu was delayed as Bibi was ushered off stage to avoid two rockets fired from Gaza. I think I would have stayed on stage and taken my chances considering how close this election appears to be.
Don't expect Blue and White, Netanyahu's main opponent in the election, to run to the negotiating tables either as they have clearly indicated that the security of the state of Israel will be their first concern.
Based on the polls Likud and Blue and White appear neck and neck in the September 17 election but it looks like Likud might have the upper hand in forming a majority coalition.
Israel's president, Reuven Rivlin, will decide which party leader has the best chance of putting together a majority coalition and that party will have a little over a month to form a government.
Saturday, September 07, 2019
The Neil Gorsuch's Book
I see that Neil Gorsuch has written a book, "A Republic, If You Can Keep It," lamenting the loss of civility in public life, but never mentioning Trump's classless activities, while explaining why we should only interpret the Constitution to mean what the 17th century framers were thinking.
Those framers must have had a truly strange prophetic vision to think about semi-automatic rifles, that wouldn’t be invented for more than 100 years, but which they covered as part of the 2nd Amendment, while missing little things like (1) getting rid of fucking slavery, (2) women’s suffrage and their right to control their own bodies, (3) LGBTQ rights and (4) immigration policies that have some vague hint of sanity about them.
How any intelligent, educated person can read the Constitution and not recognize that it is a framework meant to live and breathe as the world changes baffles me. That's one of the reasons that we have thousands upon thousands of pages of constitutional case law.
Honestly Neil, we have a better chance of keeping that Republic without folks like you.
So, Here We Go.
Another NFL season is upon us. The Packers squeaked by the Bears last Thursday by 7-3. The rest of the league gets it in gear this Sunday or Monday.
The Giants are at the Cowboys and I have no idea what to expect. Is Dave Gettleman a genius or a fool? He's probably a little of both so I'm not expecting a big surprise either way.
Manning will be under center and I don't expect to see Daniel Jones unless there is a blowout one way or the other.
There are big questions on offense. Manning's arm strength is clearly questionable despite his work with a major league baseball pitching coach. The wide receiver corps is a bit of question mark as well especially with Golden Tate on suspension.
The bigger question mark to my mind is the defense. It was really the defense that lost games last year. Hopefully it will be a bit better but I don't expect any significant improvement.
So I suppose we shall see what we shall see.
Now excuse me while I find my crying towels for tomorrow.
The Giants are at the Cowboys and I have no idea what to expect. Is Dave Gettleman a genius or a fool? He's probably a little of both so I'm not expecting a big surprise either way.
Manning will be under center and I don't expect to see Daniel Jones unless there is a blowout one way or the other.
There are big questions on offense. Manning's arm strength is clearly questionable despite his work with a major league baseball pitching coach. The wide receiver corps is a bit of question mark as well especially with Golden Tate on suspension.
The bigger question mark to my mind is the defense. It was really the defense that lost games last year. Hopefully it will be a bit better but I don't expect any significant improvement.
So I suppose we shall see what we shall see.
Now excuse me while I find my crying towels for tomorrow.
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