To Impeach or Not to Impeach II

As I said before; there are two ways to look at this. One way is theoretical and the other is practical.

This Ukraine mess changes the equation. If the House didn't begin an impeachment investigation over this then they would be in dereliction of their responsibilities. So it's time to damn the torpedoes, do the right thing and let the chips fall where they may.

But investigating is one thing and voting articles of impeachment is another. I think they would need really hard evidence of wrong doing and that evidence would have to be understandable by the American public without complicated explanations from legal experts.

On the practical side, regardless of how much evidence they come up with, is there any realistic chance of getting the two thirds majority in the Senate for a conviction? I suspect things would have to get really bad for that to happen.

There are a number of ways this could go.

1. The investigation peters out and articles of impeachment are never introduced or they're introduced by one of the wide eyed progressives and they're not approved. I suspect this is the most likely scenario.

2. Articles of impeachment can be passed in the House but the Senate acquits. This is the second most likely outcome.

3. Trump strikes a deal and resigns in exchange for some sort of immunity from something. I don't think there is much chance of this happening. Trump is too much of a narcissist.

4. Pence and the "principal officers of the executive department" invoke section 4 of the 25th Amendment and remove Trump from office. I suspect this is only slightly more likely than Trump resigning.

5. Articles of impeachment are passed in the House and the Senate convicts. The proverbial snowball in hell would have a better chance.

The impeachment process will be an issue in the 2020 elections regardless of what happens. Who it will help and who it will hurt is not at  all clear.