Saturday, February 06, 2016

The New Hampshire Primary 1

On to New Hampshire as they say. This was where in 2008 John McCain established himself with 37.1% of the vote and the Iowa Caucus winner Mike Huckabee faded to 11.2%.

To my mind New Hampshire means more than Iowa on the Republican side because it's more representative of the national electorate. Iowa is too heavily slanted towards very right wing evangelical Christians who are also known as the village idiots.

On the Democratic side not so much because the New Hampshire Primary tends to be further left than the national electorate.

So what is saying.

On the Democratic side it looks like a big win for Sanders. Estimated results are:

Bernie Sanders - 57.0%
Hillary Clinton - 40%

This now looks like it's going to be a long haul which is probably good as it keeps the candidates in the news.

In the meantime Clinton is still way ahead in endorsements with 466 points to Sanders 2 (10 for governors, 5 for senators and 1 for Representatives).

On the Republican side Trump seems headed for his first win but Cruz, may his earlobes be infested with gnats, isn't doing that well. Estimated results are:

Donald Trump - 27.3%
Marco Rubio - 18,6%
John Kasich - 14.8%
Ted Cruz - 12.3%
Jeb Bush - 11.3%
Chris Christie - 6.8%
Carly Fiorina - 4.5%
Ben Carson - 2.9%

I'd love to see Bush get ahead of Cruz but even A fourth or fifth place finish for Cruz here wouldn't necessarily cripple him as he's still holding a close third in South Carolina and the primary in his home state of Texas isn't that far away.

Maybe they'll get around to testing the water in Texas before the primary?

As for endorsements Rubio is in the lead with 60 points, Jeb Bush has 51, Chris Christie has 36 and John Kasich 20. Ted Cruz is next with 19. Donald Trump and Ben Carson have zero. Even Carly Fiorina has three (the only three people in the country that didn't have HP stock I suppose).

The rumor is that Carson is almost out of money. If he drops out after New Hampshire that might unfortunately give Cruz a boost.

Two of my four nightmare candidates (Carson, Cruz, Huckabee and Santorum) are gone and a third is wavering. Unfortunately that means the remaining one, Cruz, gets the benefit of the other wing nuts falling by the wayside.

I'll even take Trump over Cruz.

No comments: