Monday, June 15, 2026

The Iranian Deal

According to Trump, he has made a deal to end the fighting in the Middle East. Unfortunately, no one has seen the text of the deal and we're hearing contradictory things from Trump and JD Vance.

The best I can make of it is:

(1) The Strait of Hormuz gets opened but it's unclear if there will be tolls or not.

(2) If Iran doesn't rebuild its nuclear capability then it get access to money? I'm reading between the lines here.

(3) If it does rebuild its nuclear capability then it doesn't get access?

(4) The Gulf States and the US, according to JD Vance, are putting together a $300 billion fund to help rebuild Iranian infrastructure. I assume this is the money they get access to plus the $100 billion currently frozen but I'm not sure. Trump has denied that such a fund exists.

(5) If the Israelis keep attacking Lebanon then the deal is off, and the Israelis haven't agreed to stop doing so because they're not signatories to the deal.

As you can see from the above, I don't really know a whole hell of a lot and apparently neither do the Israelis who claim they haven't seen the deal either.

More to follow when more information is available.

Saturday, June 13, 2026

The World Cup 2026 II

 On to the next three days. You notice I'm not making any predictions because that would just make me look foolish.

Group A                      MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts       

  • Mexico                    1     1   0    0   2     0      2    3
  • South Korea          1     1   0    0   2     1       1     3
  • Czechia                   1     0   0   1    1     1      -1    0
  • South Africa          1     0   0   1    0     2     -2    0

Group B                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Canada                   1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
  • Bos and Herz        1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
  • Qatar                      1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
  • Switzerland           1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1

Group C                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Scotland                1     1    0   0    1     0      1     3
  • Brazil                     1     0    1   0    1     1       0     1
  • Morocco                1     0    1   0    1     1       0     1
  • Haiti                       1     0   0   1    0     1      -1     0

Group D                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • United States       1     1   0   0   4      1      3      3
  • Australia               1     1   0   0   2     0      2      3
  • Turkiye                 1      0   1   0   0     2     -2     0
  • Paraguay              1      0   0   1   1      4     -3     0

Group E                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Germany              1      1   0   0   7      1      6      3
  • Ivory Coast          1      1   0   0   1      0      1      3
  • Ecuador               1      0   0   1   0      1     -1      0
  • Curacao                1     0   0   1    1      7     -6     0

Group F                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Sweden                1       1   0  0    5     1      4     3
  • Netherlands        1      0   1   0    2     2     0     1
  • Japan                   1       0   1   0   2     2     0     1
  • Tunisia                1       0   0   1   1     1     -4     0

Group G                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Iran                       1      0   1   0   2     2      0     1
  • New Zealand       1      0   1   0   2     2      0     1
  • Belgium               1      0   1    0   1      1      0     1
  • Egypt                    1      0   1    0   1      1      0     1

Group H                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Saudi Arabia         1     0    1   0   1      1      0     1
  • Uruguay                 1     0    1   0   1      1      0     1
  • Spain                      1     0    1   0    0     0     0     1
  • Capo Verde           1     0    1   0    0     0     0     1

Group I                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts
  • Norway                1      1   0   0    4     1       3     3
  • France                  1      1   0   0    3      1      2     3
  • Senegal                1      0   0   1     1      3    -2     0
  • Iraq                       1     0    0   1    1      4     -3    0

Group J                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Argentina            1      1   0   0   3     0       3     3
  • Austria                 1      1   0   0   3     1       2      3
  • Jordan                 1      0   0   1   1      3     -2      0
  • Algeria                 1      0   0   1   0     3     -3      0

Group K                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Colombia             1       1   0   0   3     1       2    3
  • Portugal               1       0   1    0   1     1      0     1
  • DR Congo            1       0    1    0   1     1     0     1
  • Uzbekistan          1       0   0    1    1     3    -2    0

Group L                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • England                1     1   0   0   4     2      2     3
  • Ghana                   1     1    0   0   1     0      1     3
  • Panama                1     0    0   1   0     1     -1    0
  • Croatia                  1     0   0   1   2     4     -2    0
June 14th Games
Australia-2 Turkiye-0
Germany-7 Curacao-1
Netherlands-2 Japan-2
Ivory Coast-1 Ecuador-0
Sweden-5 Tunisia-1

June 15th Games
Spain-0 Capo Verde-0
Belgium-1 Egypt-1
Saudi Arabia-1 Uruguay-1
Iran vs New Zealand

June 16th Games
France-3 Senegal-1
Iraq-1 Norway-4
Argentina-3 Algeria-0

June 17th
Austria-3 Jordan-1
Portugal-1 DR Congo-1
England-4 Croatia-2
Ghana-1 Panama-0
Uzbekistan-1 Colombia-3

Thursday, June 11, 2026

How Social Security Works

 I continue to be amazed at how many people have a mistaken impression of how Social Security operates.

Legally, Social Security is required to invest in special-issue US Treasury Bonds. And no, Social Security revenue NEVER contributes to the General Fund, so it has absolutely nothing to do with the deficit or the debt. Here's how Social Security operates: 

All revenue collected is first used to pay current benefits. If there is a surplus, it goes into the Social Security Trust Fund which, by law, is invested in special-issue US Treasury Bonds because it is considered the safest investment and CAN NEVER LOSE MONEY. These aren't just IOUs, but blue chip financial investments. These bonds collect interest which also goes into the Social Security Trust fund. What is special about these bonds is that they can be redeemed at anytime at par value. In other words, they're basically cash collecting interest.

If there is not enough to cover current benefits, then first interest, and then bonds, from the Trust Fund are used to meet the shortfall. 

Up until 2010 Social Security was taking in more money than it was paying out, so the Trust Fund was growing and all interest was reinvested back into the fund.

After 2010 Social Security used interest from the Trust Fund to make up the shortfall in tax revenue rather than investing that interest back into the Trust Fund. The Trust Fund reached a maximum size of about $2.9 trillion in 2020. 

Starting in 2021 the shortfall exceed both the tax revenue and the Trust Fund interest so Social Security began cashing in bonds to make up the shortfall. The Trust Fund currently contains approximately $2.56 trillion.

Unless either (1) more revenue is added or (2) expenses are reduced or (3) some combination of more revenue and reduced expenses is implemented, the Trust Fund is expected to be exhausted in 2032. At that time benefits will have to be reduced by about 22% to match what's being collected in tax revenues.

Wednesday, June 10, 2026

The World Cup 2026

Despite Trump's attempts to fuck it up, the World Cup appears to be alive and well and the games will start tomorrow. Here are the Groups. 

Group A                      MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts       

  • Mexico                    1     1   0    0   2     0      2    3
  • South Korea          1     1   0    0   2     1       1     3
  • Czechia                   1     0   0   1    1     1      -1    0
  • South Africa          1     0   0   1    0     2     -2    0

Group B                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Canada                   1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
  • Bos and Herz        1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
  • Qatar                      1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1
  • Switzerland           1     0   1    0   1      1       0     1

Group C                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Scotland                1     1    0   0    1     0      1     3
  • Brazil                     1     0    1   0    1     1       0     1
  • Morocco                1     0    1   0    1     1       0     1
  • Haiti                       1     0   0   1    0     1      -1     0

Group D                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • United States       1     1   0   0   4      1      3      3
  • Australia              0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Turkiye                 0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Paraguay              1      0   0   1   1      4     -3     0

Group E                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Germany              0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Curacao                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Ivory Coast          0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Ecuador               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group F                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Netherlands        0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Japan                   0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Sweden                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Tunisia                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group G                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Belgium               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Egypt                    0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Iran                      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • New Zealand      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group H                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Spain                    0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Capo Verde         0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Saudi Arabia      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Uruguay              0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
Group I                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts
  • France                 0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Senegal               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Iraq                      0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Norway               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group J                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Argentina           0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Algeria                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Austria                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Jordan                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group K                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • Portugal               0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • DR Congo            0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Uzbekistan          0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Colombia             0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0

Group L                    MP  W  D  L  GF  GA  GD  Pts

  • England                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Croatia                  0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Ghana                   0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
  • Panama                0     0   0   0   0     0      0     0
June 11th Games
Mexico-3 South Africa-0
South Korea-2 Czechnia-1

June 12th Games
Canada-1 Bos and Herz-1
USA-4 Paraguay-1

June 13th Games
Qatar-1 Switzerland-1
Brazil-1 Morocco-1
Haiti-0 Scotland-1

Sunday, May 31, 2026

Islamophobia

Yes, I'm Islamophobic. I don't trust Muslims. I've been fighting them for too long and I at least have not forgotten 9-11.

Islam is both a religion and a political philosophy, and that political philosophy is antithetical to western democracy. So now what do we do? As an atheist, in many Islamic countries, I could be arrested and face any number of legal penalties up to and including the death penalty. These countries include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen and areas of Nigeria. Iran and Saudi Arabia still hold public executions. 

Then there is the  status of LGBTQ people in Islamic countries.  In several nations, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and the United Arab Emirates, homosexuality is illegal and can carry the death penalty.  Other countries, such as Kuwait, Egypt, and Syria, do not have the death penalty for homosexuality, but heavily criminalize it. Being gay can lead to imprisonment or prosecution under "public morality" laws. Gays are regularly murdered in Gaza by Hamas and by ISIS.

This is why I shake my head when I see these young college students wearing the keffiyeh while having no idea about the culture of what they're supporting.

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Is Christopher Nolan's the Odyssey a Big Deal?

It's a movie. How big a deal can it be? The better question is, will it be a success or a flop?

The problem is interference with immersion in the story. The costumes, (Batman at the siege of Troy?), the props (a Viking Longship?) and the dialogue (sounds like a surfing movie) are all going to disrupt the story immersion. 

Maybe we'll get used to all of this in the first 10 minutes and then it won't matter. Or perhaps it will be so bad that audiences will leave the theater not entirely certain what they just watched. I honestly don't know. I'll tell you one thing, if the whole movie is as dismal as the trailer, then it's going to destroy tourism to Greece for decades.

I really don't understand what Nolan is aiming for here. 

My original thought was that none of the online criticism was going to matter all that much, but now, I'm beginning to wonder. 

Still, if I was a betting man, I would still bet on the movie making lots of money unless there are serious flaws that we're not aware of yet. The drop off after the first weekend should tell the tale.

Monday, May 25, 2026

On Translations

 One of the things some people are complaining about with Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is the translation that he is reportedly relying upon. He is supposedly using Emily Wilson 2017 translation which some people seem to like and others don't like.

I haven't read it so I can't speak from from personal experience. I did watch a video defending the translations and claiming that it was truer to the original text. The example she gave was the word "kynopis" which, apparently, literally means "dog-faced." It is generally considered derogatory and often translated as "shameless." 

Helen of Troy uses the term referring to herself in Book 4 and Emily Wilson has, according to the woman making the video, translated it literally while previous translations have made it into a form of self-condemnation and translating it as Helen criticizing herself as "shameless."

The are three main methods for translating something.

1. Word-for-Word (Formal Equivalence)

This method stays as close to the original text as feasible. This sounds like the path that Wilson took, at least in this example. The problem with a word-for-word translation is that it can leave modern readers scratching their heads when they come across phrases or idioms that are no longer in use. In this example, "dog-faced" would probably be a tad confusing.

2. Thought-for-Thought (Dynamic Equivalence)

This method prioritizes translating the meaning of a passage rather than sticking strictly to individual words. This is what translators are doing in this example when they translate "kynopis" as "shameless." The criticism of this method is that different translators may interpret the meaning of different passages differently.

3. Paraphrase (Free Translation)

Instead of translating directly from the original language, these versions rephrase the text into a conversational, interpretive format. I've always considered this Dynamic Equivalence on steroids and clearly risks loosing the meaning of the text through interpretation.

Each of these methods have champions and detractors. So, staying truer to the actual text may, or may not, be a virtue.

Update: I got a bit more detail on the actual translation that Wilson uses. Apparently it was “They made my face the cause that hounded them.”

The problem with translating "kynopis" as "hounded" rather than "shameless" or "wanton," is it changes the line from self reflection and taking at least some of the blame for the war into essentially blaming everyone else.  Fitzgerald renders the line as "...that year the Akhaian host made war on Troy—daring all for the wanton that I was.” 

Helen therefore appears to take some responsibility for running off with Paris even if she was under Aphrodite's control. I like that Helen better than Wilson's Helen even if she was being too hard on herself.

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Christopher Nolan's Odyssey

 You knew that I couldn't leave this one alone right?

When I first heard that Nolan was creating a movie based upon Homer's "The Odyssey," I thought to myself, that sounds sort of cool. I'll probably watch it when it comes on streaming. I thought the same thing about "Nuremberg" which I thought was so awful that I couldn't even finish it.

Then the rumors started and the first trailers hit the street. Talk about waving a red flag in front of a herd of bulls, the Internet went completely off the rails.

Here are the primary complaints:

(1) The Casting : At the top of the list is the casting of a black woman, Lupita Nyong’o, as Helen of Troy. Talk about throwing raw meat into a pit of hyenas. She will also apparently play Clytemnestra, who in some stories is Helen's twin sister. 

The Internet has been merciless with some people calling her "Helen of DeTroyt" and others "the face that emptied 1,000 theaters." I don't agree with this choice. I find it insulting. I suppose I would find it even more insulting if I was Greek. We all know that Hollywood has a diversity checklist that a movie has to meet if they want to be eligible for awards, but this is not the way to get there.

But it gets worse. Picture Achilles in your mind. I suspect you're thinking bulging biceps and six pack abs. So who gets cast? A five foot transman called Elliot Page that looks like a stiff breeze would blow him away. I'm not even sure what Achilles in doing in the Odyssey unless it's a flashback or dream sequence.

Nolan also decided that what a movie about Bronze Age Greeks REALLY needed was a rapper as narrator. I don't even know what to say about this. I have to assume if this wasn't working out that they would have changed it so, I suppose we'll have to see.

Finally, we're getting Zendaya as Athena. Honestly, this may be the worse choice of all. Athena is almost always described as the "bright-eyed" or "grey-eyed" goddess. Zendaya has dark brown eyes. I would have thought a more majestic actress, with actual breasts, might have been a better choice.

(2) The Costumes: There is a scene in one of the trailers showing Agamemnon in thick black armor that makes him look more like Batman than a Bronze Age Greek warrior. There is also a scene showing the Laestrygonian Giants wearing plate armor which makes absolutely no sense.  Odysseus' ship also looks more like a Viking Longship than a Greek galley.

(3) The Dialogue: Nolan is reportedly basing the movie on a 2017 translation by Emily Wilson which has gotten mixed reviews. I haven't read it so I'm in no position to say anything one way or the other. One thing everyone seems to agree on though is that she uses modern, often informal, phrasing rather than formal language. In the trailer Telemachus refers to Odysseus as "dad." She is also reported to be more sensitive to realistic social dynamics and calling things as they are, especially when in comes to the place of women in ancient Greek society.

There are any number of people writing this movie off and predicting that it will be a massive flop. I'm not so sure. The production budget is reportedly $250 million. Google says that a movie needs a box office typically between 2.5 and 3 times the production budget to break even. That would mean between $625 million and $750 million and I suspect this movie is going to be seriously advertised so it might be closer to $750 million. 

That would make it the 5th highest grossing Nolan film. But only "The Dark Night Rises" had as big a budget, and it's his #1 box office success at $1.08 billion, and that was in 2012. Now, 14 years later, I think "The Odyssey" will easily meet the $750 million and might top $1 billion unless there is something else seriously wrong with the movie beyond these three issues.

This will probably be a successful movie thanks to the dumbing down of American education. The vast majority of the people that are going to see this film have probably never read "The Iliad" or "The Odyssey." They won't know that the armor is anachronistic or that Odysseus' ship looks more like a Viking Longship rather than a Greek Galley. They won't know that Athena is always described as the "grey-eyed" or "bright-eyed" goddess. They might notice that Helen shouldn't be black, but I doubt they'll care. The dumbing down of the dialogue might work in Nolan's favor because his target audience probably has a limited vocabulary. As long as the film has spectacle and a strong pace, it will make boatloads of money and all of our criticisms will be forgotten.

Friday, May 15, 2026

Black People Invented Democracy?

 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a fucking moron. I really do not like her and if she is on the Democratic ticket in 2028 I will either sit out the election or vote Republican depending upon the GOP candidate. If it's Vance, I won't vote for him. If it's Rubio, then I probably would vote for him.

In a podcast interview recently AOC claimed "I think about the civil rights and voting rights movement, and how Black Americans really created democracy in this country... how they literally made something from nothing."

What? I get her point about the importance of civil rights leaders during the 1960s but you can't just throw out a couple of thousand years of history starting in ancient Athens and continuing through the Magna Carta and a little thing called the US Constitution. Granted that rights de jure don't always always translate into rights de facto but give me a break.

Obviously black people didn't invent democracy. However the rights granted in the 14th and 15th Amendments de jure didn't translate into rights de facto everyplace. 

The Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 were primarily aimed at the Southern States where many black people were in fact denied their right to vote through poll taxes and impossible to pass literacy tests. White voters didn't have to worry about those tests because their right to vote was literally grandfathered in. If their grandfathers could vote, then they could vote without having to pass the literacy test. 

Blacks could vote in the South, and elected several black congressmen, prior to the Compromise 0f 1877 which saw the federal government withdraw troops from the South and allowed the Jim Crow era to officially begin. Almost immediately Southern states began instituting poll taxes and literacy tests in order to disenfranchise black voters. Poll taxes were outlawed in Federal Elections by the 24th Amendment in 1964 and in all elections by the U.S. Supreme Court in the 1966 case Harper v. Virginia State Board of Elections. Literacy tests were banned by the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

So it took almost 100 years to translate the rights guaranteed de jure by the 14th and 15th Amendments into actual rights. But that doesn't mean that black people created Democracy. That's just idiotic.

Thursday, May 14, 2026

I Got a Letter from the IRS...

 I got a letter from the IRS telling me that they didn't have a bank account on record for me. That was a bit of a head scratcher because I've been paying my taxes electronically for years. In fact they had just taken $21,000 out of my checking account.

All sorts of red flags went up but the letter looked legitimate. So, I logged into my IRS account (yes, I have an IRS account) and discovered two things. First, the letter was legitimate. I even found a copy of it in my account. Second, there were no bank accounts listed. I suppose they don't keep a copy of the account used to pay taxes due.

After thinking about it for a second or two, I didn't see any harm in providing my checking account so that's what I did. A short while later I got another letter telling me that someone had made changes to my account. Well, yeah, that was me, so no need to do anything. I still didn't know why they needed the account information.

Then a letter appeared a week or two later telling me that they owned me money! Well, that was a first. Apparently my accountant had miscalculated my penalty for not paying estimated tax by $136.19.

The letter said that I could expect to see the $136.19 in six to eight weeks. So now I understood why they wanted the bank account information, but had to wonder why it was going to take six to eight weeks to deposit a whole $136.19.

Today, I found out why is took six to eight weeks. They sent me a paper check. You can't make this stuff up.

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Shooting at the White House Correspondent's Dinner

An armed gunman attempted to gain access to the WHCD. His exact objective is unclear but the assumption is that he was either after Trump or some other administration official. Luckily he was captured by the Secret Service before he could cause any harm.

As if that's not crazy enough, an online conspiracy theory almost immediately sprung up that this was all staged by Trump or one of his cronies. That rapidly spread to people claiming that all three failed assassination attempts were staged.

I see no evidence to support that nonsense and a lot of evidence against it. For instance, how do you convince someone to be the fall guy and take the blame for the assassination attempt? If he's not in on it, then how do you find someone stupid enough to be convinced to give it a try?

Thursday, April 23, 2026

The Trump Administration

It’s the Clown Cabinet headed by a petulant toddler. The team he sent to negotiate with the Iranians is the Buffoon Brigade. But the really bad news is that 40% of the electorate appear to think that he’s doing a great job. I don’t get it. I really don’t. 

I will now rant for a couple of paragraphs so feel free to ignore me.

During the 2024 election I agreed that we needed to address illegal immigration. I wanted DEI to go away and I was sick and tired of the “woke” bullshit (“woke” = declaring anyone that disagreed with the left as racist, misogynist, homophobic, transphobic or some other nasty name and the constant race swapping in movies and on TV).

Having a degree in Economics, I understood the dynamics of inflation coming out of the pandemic better than most, and understood that the worst was over.

But, I didn’t trust Trump or the Republicans to address immigration and DEI and the “woke” bullshit I could live with. They certainly weren’t a big enough problem to put Trump back in the White House.

I also understood that Trump was lying about bringing down prices on day one. I told everyone I could reach that this was nonsense. We all see how well I did with that.

I am honestly surprised that he was stupid enough to attack Iran. The geography is all in their favor. The world economy is now in a mess thanks to Trump's incompetence.

I get the issue of not wanting Iran to have nukes. But Trump went about it the wrong way and that may be worse than doing nothing.

Sunday, April 19, 2026

To Hormuz or not to Hormuz

The US Navy is now supposedly blockading the Straits of Hormuz in order to prevent Iranian ships from passing through. The Navy has reportedly seized at least one Iranian flagged ship.

The Iranians opened the straits for a short while but then closed them again. They have reportedly fired on at least one ship which was flying the Indian flag.

I have to say things like "supposedly" and "reportedly" because honestly, I don't know what the hell is actually going on, and it's next to impossible to figure out what reports to believe.

The ceasefire ends on Tuesday and talks are supposed to resume on Monday. We all saw how well talks went the last time around.

I suspect one of the problems is that Trump and company want a quick resolution while the Iranians want to drag things out and see how good a deal they can broker.

The market has pretty much recovered but we'll see what happens next week.

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Genocidal, Apartheid, Colonialist

Genocidal, Apartheid and Colonialist are the three accusations that the US Left likes to toss against Israel. OK, Let's take a look.

Genocidal? The Palestinian population has increased 5x since 1967. That's not much of a genocide. 

Apartheid? The area is separated into three major regions. Gaza, Israel proper and the West Bank. Gaza is Palestinian and has a population of about 2.2 million. It's also controlled by the terrorist group Hamas. 

Israel has a population of 10 million of which 2 million are Palestinians. These Palestinians are Israeli citizens with full rights but face challenges similar to other ethnic minorities in other countries. 

The West Bank is further divided into Areas A, B and C as agreed to in the Oslo Accords in 1993. Area A is under the full control of the Palestinian Authority. Area B is under civil control of the Palestinian Authority but Israel provides security. Areas A & B have a population of around 3.3 million Palestinians. Area C is fully under Israeli control. There are about 400,000 Israeli settlers in Area C with Israeli citizenship and around 300,000 Palestinians with Palestinian Authority citizenship.

Travel for Palestinians within the West Bank, and between the West Bank and just about anywhere else, is severely restricted. The Israeli settlements in the West Bank are of questionable legality. The consensus of opinion is that they violate the Fourth Geneva Convention which prohibits an occupying power from transferring its civilians into occupied territory. Israel disputes this, arguing the territory is "disputed" rather than occupied.

Let's face it, Israel is an occupying power in the West Bank thus the extensive travel restrictions. Areas A&B are essentially isolated because they are surrounded by Israeli controlled territory. It's almost a military blockade but it's not apartheid. On the other hand, a country has the right to control who enters its territory. In other words, it's a royal mess.

Colonialist? Well, there are 400,000 Israeli settlers in Area C of the West Bank. Depending upon the legal status of Area C, that may well be colonialism.

Then there is East Jerusalem which was occupied by Israel during the 1967 war and officially annexed by it in 1980. The United Nations considers East Jerusalem as part of Palestinian Territories. Funny how no one complained when Jordan Annexed both the West Bank and East Jerusalem in 1950. The annexation was even recognized by the UK, Iraq and Pakistan. However Jordan essentially ceded sovereignty of the West Bank and East Jerusalem to the Palestinian Liberation Organization in 1988.

Friday, April 10, 2026

The Ignorance is Amazing

We all know that MAGAs simply parrot whatever they're told but the left isn't much better. They have evolved Israel into some imaginary bogeyman that, in their minds, has been pulling the strings in every confrontation the US has been involved in anywhere close to the Middle East.

For example, this post about wars that Israel has supposedly gotten the US into.

"Start with 9/11, Iraq, Syria, Libya, 

Afghanistan -20 YEARS.

Now Iran and who else???"

My response: (Yes, I got a little petulant because this isn't the first post like this)

What the hell are you talking about? Do yourself a favor and learn some actual history.

9/11 was an attack by Al-Qeada. It was primarily about US troops in Saudi Arabia although US support for Israel was also part of the motive. 

Let's face it, Arab Muslims in the Middle East have been trying to destroy Israel since 1948 and Arabs and Jews have been fighting over the region since at least the establishment of the Mandate for Palestine in 1922.

9/11 led directly to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Syria was all about ISIS and denying Russia control of the area.

The US has a strategic interest in the Middle East and has slowly been expanding its sphere of influence there. We have 50,000 troops spread out over Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. We also have friendly relations (in other words we give them money) with Israel and Egypt but no troops in either country. So Israel is just a small part of the total equation. 

Essentially you are blaming the mouse (Israel) for the actions of the elephant (the US).

Iran is the next logical step but it's a lot to chew off. US Presidents before Trump have been smart enough not to get into a confrontation because the geography is all in Iran's favor. 

Israel wants to eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah because they regularly fire missiles at Israel killing civilians. Imagine if Mexico and Canada fired missiles randomly at the US. Iran bankrolls Hamas and Hezbollah. I don't blame Israel for wanting to take down Iran. I blame Trump and Hegseth for letting Netanyahu talk them into thinking an air assault alone would manage to do that. We all see how well that worked out.

Which Libya are you talking about? In 1986 it was in retaliation for a Berlin bombing. In 2011 it was a UN sanctioned action that led to the fall of the Gaddafi regime. Israel wasn't involved in either of these two actions.

Wednesday, April 08, 2026

The Affordability Crisis

Prices jumped significantly between 2021 and 2023.

That price increase was driven by cost-push inflation. This occurs when production costs increase leading companies to increase prices. The primary driver for these increases was reestablishing supply lines after COVID.

But notice something. The supply lines have been reestablished but the prices didn't go back down. Instead they're now driving huge corporate profits.

Normal inflation is caused by demand-pull inflation which occurs when consumer demand exceeds available supply. When you raise salaries on a broad scale in order to try and catch up with cost-push inflation, it will often lead to demand-pull inflation because more people have more money to spend. 

But raising salaries will always outpace demand-pull inflation. When salaries fail to keep up with inflation it is almost always cost-push inflation that is causing the problem.

Ceasefire Crumbling

Apparently no one told Israel about the ceasefire. They continued their strikes in Lebanon so Iran shut the Straits of Hormuz again. Well, it was nice to have a couple of hours of peace.

This is going to send the market into a tailspin.

Tuesday, April 07, 2026

Ceasefire?

Trump claims to have signed a two week ceasefire with Iran tied to the opening of the Straits of Hormuz.

Can't wait to hear what the Iranians have to say about this two week ceasefire. 

In the meantime, Dow futures are up 800 points and Nasdaq futures are up 600 points so someone (I wonder who?) is making a ton of money.

Congress seriously needs to use these two weeks to impeach the crazy son of a bitch.

The 25th Amendment

Trump is becoming more and more unhinged. He has clearly lost it.

On Sunday he issued a profanity laced threat that no "leader" of a civilized nation should issue.

"Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP."

Add to this the fact that Hegseth has been forcing out senior military leaders and the situation is downright terrifying.

The 25th Amendment incudes procedures for a President who is physically, or mentally, incapacitated to step aside and allow the Vice President to take over.

Section 3 covers a voluntary action where the President himself declares to the Speaker of the House and President Pro Tempore of the Senate that he unable to perform his duties. The Vice President would take over until the President declares that he is again able to perform the duties of President.

Section 4 covers scenarios where the President is either unable to communicate or for the involuntary removal of a President for physical or mental reasons.

Who decides you ask? According to the Amendment, "the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide."

Since Congress hasn't provided for "such other body," most people interpret this to mean a majority of the cabinet.

Therein lies the 1st problem. Trump has chosen his cabinet for loyalty rather than competence. It seems unlikely a majority of them are going to declare him unfit.

If if Vance had the balls to initiate such an action (he doesn't), and even if he managed to get a majority of the cabinet to go along (he won't), Trump can contest it and declare that he is fit.

If that happens, which seems highly likely, "Congress shall decide the issue...by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office."

That seems really, really, unlikely.

The 25th Amendment clearly assumes that the VP, cabinet and Congress would place country over party and do the right thing. Unfortunately that may no longer be a valid assumption.

Wednesday, April 01, 2026

Trump's Speech

I listened to Trump's speech tonight. It was like listening to a six year old. A delusional six year old.

Honestly, I'm no wiser about what the hell is going on there because he provided absolutely no believable information. He also did a good job of insulting our European allies.

I cannot believe that someone actually allowed him to make this speech. I'd also like to know who wrote it. The bad news is that he's talking about the war continuing for another three to four weeks. That's not going to make the market happy.

I'm not sure what the hell comes next. The man is an absolute moron.