It's been 25 days since Election 2016 VII because I no longer trust the polls or anything else.
I'm watching the country disintegrate in a way I suppose I've always suspected would be coming.
On one hand are the voices of reason and on the other the voices of fear and fear is a powerful emotion.
For too long now Republicans have pounded away with a message intended to instill fear in its base and to blame all of the issues underlying that fear upon people who look different.
Yet nothing ever seemed to change because the message was putting the blame on people who were pretty much innocent of causing the problem. After decades of "those other people are stealing what's rightfully yours" the crows have come home to roost. The end result of that message that is the candidacy of Donald Trump.
I don't believe the polls. I believe my gut and my gut says that Trump has a good chance to pull this one out. Then what?
You can be sure that it will be nothing good and you can be sure that the poor saps that voted for him will be worse off but still being told it's the fault of people who look different.
If you tell a lie often enough and with enough conviction, even fairly intelligent people will start to believe it and Trump and the Republicans have been lying from the beginning and the lies are being believed.
I would like to document one issue and that is the 33,000 emails that were deleted.
No Clinton didn't break the law when she had those 33,000 emails deleted. She had tasked her lawyers to divide the emails on her private server into work related and private. The work related emails were turned over to the Department of State and the server contractor was directed the remaining emails in December of 2014.
The Select Committee on Benghazi did not ask for all emails on the private server to be preserved until March of 2015.
I used to delete emails all the time from my work server. Typically when the numbers got too large I would delete everything but the last three months or so. The important stuff I left tucked away in separate files.
Even the backups were eventually deleted by the IT department. We were under no obligation to save emails just in case someone decided they wanted to see them and neither was Clinton.
Anyway, so much for that lie. I'm going to stay quiet now until November 9th.
Monday, October 24, 2016
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Good Grief!
This just keeps getting "better and better"...NOT!
Trump is losing his mind. In last Sunday's debate he threatened to tell the Justice Department to investigate Hillary Clinton and put her in jail. Great, nothing like a two bit dictator of a banana republic sort of dance.
Now we're hearing that he felt it was his privilege to waltz into Miss Universe and Miss Teenage USA dressing rooms knowing the ladies were partially dressed. The rumor is he used this tactic to ogle girls as young as 15.
At least one contestant, a former Miss Arizona, says the accusations are true.
Personally I don't know if they're true or not but the problem, given his ego, is this is just the sort of thing you could imagine him doing.
This is utterly nuts. I've never seen anything like this.
In the meantime, on the other side, a number of leaked tapes have a Clinton aid saying some disparaging things about Catholics.
This is definitely becoming a vote for the lesser evil kind of election but Clinton is by far the lesser evil. Trump is clearly self-centered, a bully and a total pig. I wouldn't soil my hands by pulling a lever next to his name.
The polls are all over the place. At this point in time I just don't trust any of the numbers. We just need to get this nonsense over with. This whole thing is becoming a national disgrace.
Trump is losing his mind. In last Sunday's debate he threatened to tell the Justice Department to investigate Hillary Clinton and put her in jail. Great, nothing like a two bit dictator of a banana republic sort of dance.
Now we're hearing that he felt it was his privilege to waltz into Miss Universe and Miss Teenage USA dressing rooms knowing the ladies were partially dressed. The rumor is he used this tactic to ogle girls as young as 15.
At least one contestant, a former Miss Arizona, says the accusations are true.
Personally I don't know if they're true or not but the problem, given his ego, is this is just the sort of thing you could imagine him doing.
This is utterly nuts. I've never seen anything like this.
In the meantime, on the other side, a number of leaked tapes have a Clinton aid saying some disparaging things about Catholics.
This is definitely becoming a vote for the lesser evil kind of election but Clinton is by far the lesser evil. Trump is clearly self-centered, a bully and a total pig. I wouldn't soil my hands by pulling a lever next to his name.
The polls are all over the place. At this point in time I just don't trust any of the numbers. We just need to get this nonsense over with. This whole thing is becoming a national disgrace.
Sunday, October 09, 2016
The Second Debate
Given the rapidly unraveling of the Trump campaign all Clinton really needs to do tonight is not lose.
The problem with that idea is that playing it safe can often backfire. Her other option is to go for the kill.
The best way to do that, in my humble opinion, would be to focus on the questions and not spend half the night talking about Trump's expletive laden misogynistic video.
It's a town hall format so the questions are coming directly from the audience and she can expect inconvenient questions about her e-mail server, ties to Wall Street and the Clinton Foundation. Just provide honest and sincere answers and ignore the Drumpf.
If she can slide in a few Trump Triggers and bait his ass again, so much the better.
Come on Hillary, we need this one.
The problem with that idea is that playing it safe can often backfire. Her other option is to go for the kill.
The best way to do that, in my humble opinion, would be to focus on the questions and not spend half the night talking about Trump's expletive laden misogynistic video.
It's a town hall format so the questions are coming directly from the audience and she can expect inconvenient questions about her e-mail server, ties to Wall Street and the Clinton Foundation. Just provide honest and sincere answers and ignore the Drumpf.
If she can slide in a few Trump Triggers and bait his ass again, so much the better.
Come on Hillary, we need this one.
Saturday, October 08, 2016
Trump's Locker Room Language Video
A video has surfaced in which The Donald expresses opinions rarely heard outside of Middle School locker rooms or good old boy drunken binges.
To say the video is misogynistic and offensive would be giving it more credit than it deserves.
Am I surprised? A little bit. I didn't think Trump had the intellect of a 13 year old. This is a guy wearing a swollen head which leads him to say stupid stuff and not listen to people who know what they're talking about because, in his mind, how could anyone know more than him about anything?
It's beyond belief than he will survive this and still probably amass more than 40% of the vote. Evangelical Christians are still claiming he's the best candidate which, if they ever had it, certainly kicks them off of the moral high ground.
Some Republicans have, again, called upon him to withdraw but Trump has so far refused.
The party can't kick him out and besides, voting has already started, absentee ballots have already been mailed and the ballots are already printed so they're sort of stuck with him.
In his "apology" Trump claims that Hillary has "bullied and attacked women" and that "Bill Clinton has done worse" while threatening to expand on these themes in Sunday's debate.
Who cares if Hillary has "bullied and attacked women?" She's a woman so sort of even Steven there and can someone tell Trump that he's not running against Bill?
Going down this rabbit hole would be a huge mistake. His only chance is to stay on message Sunday and NOT allow himself to get baited. I'd say, given his track record and ego, the chances of that are slim and none.
Can he still win? Given the incredible stupidity of a large chunk of the American electorate, yes he can.
To say the video is misogynistic and offensive would be giving it more credit than it deserves.
Am I surprised? A little bit. I didn't think Trump had the intellect of a 13 year old. This is a guy wearing a swollen head which leads him to say stupid stuff and not listen to people who know what they're talking about because, in his mind, how could anyone know more than him about anything?
It's beyond belief than he will survive this and still probably amass more than 40% of the vote. Evangelical Christians are still claiming he's the best candidate which, if they ever had it, certainly kicks them off of the moral high ground.
Some Republicans have, again, called upon him to withdraw but Trump has so far refused.
The party can't kick him out and besides, voting has already started, absentee ballots have already been mailed and the ballots are already printed so they're sort of stuck with him.
In his "apology" Trump claims that Hillary has "bullied and attacked women" and that "Bill Clinton has done worse" while threatening to expand on these themes in Sunday's debate.
Who cares if Hillary has "bullied and attacked women?" She's a woman so sort of even Steven there and can someone tell Trump that he's not running against Bill?
Going down this rabbit hole would be a huge mistake. His only chance is to stay on message Sunday and NOT allow himself to get baited. I'd say, given his track record and ego, the chances of that are slim and none.
Can he still win? Given the incredible stupidity of a large chunk of the American electorate, yes he can.
Tuesday, October 04, 2016
Kaepernick's Protest Spills over into College Football
A number of college players and at least one marching band have decided to join in Colin Kaepernick's protest by kneeling during the national anthem. Some of the band members refused to play.
This is causing all sorts of negative reactions.
Protests are meant to make people feel uncomfortable or angry and attempt to open a dialogue. When people feel threatened they will usually look for a way to neutralize the threat. Those solutions can be either positive or negative.
I'm seeing a fair number of negative reactions. Right wing nut jobs calling for the players to be cut from the team and for coaching staffs to be fired.
ESPN in Fayetteville is taking a novel approach and protesting the protest of the East Carolina University marching band by not broadcasting the next ECU game. The band was also reportedly loudly booed at halftime as well.
Freedom of Speech does not guarantee freedom of consequences as long as those consequences are from private individuals and not the state.
The halftime boos are themselves Freedom of Speech.
Firing coaches or cutting players at a public university is probably a violation of the 1st Amendment. At a private university perhaps not so much.
The ESPN Fayetteville decision is an interesting one. They are not only reacting to the protest that occurred but are essentially insuring that a 2nd protest doesn't get a wider audience than the fans at the game.
When college students protest the presentations by alt right commentators guaranteed to deliver offensive racist or misogynistic messages by trying to have their invitations to speak revoked, they are criticized by the right wing. I don't see the ESPN decision to be much different so I'll expect to see howls of indignation about ESPN from the academic freedom crowd any day now (*cough, cough*).
So far I don't see any problem with players or band members making their concerns about the deaths of young black men at the hands of police known. I think it's an issue that needs to be brought out into the open and discussed.
From what I've seen, I think in most cases the police are acting appropriately. In most cases but not all. It will never be perfect because none of us are perfect. The question is can it be made better?
This is causing all sorts of negative reactions.
Protests are meant to make people feel uncomfortable or angry and attempt to open a dialogue. When people feel threatened they will usually look for a way to neutralize the threat. Those solutions can be either positive or negative.
I'm seeing a fair number of negative reactions. Right wing nut jobs calling for the players to be cut from the team and for coaching staffs to be fired.
ESPN in Fayetteville is taking a novel approach and protesting the protest of the East Carolina University marching band by not broadcasting the next ECU game. The band was also reportedly loudly booed at halftime as well.
Freedom of Speech does not guarantee freedom of consequences as long as those consequences are from private individuals and not the state.
The halftime boos are themselves Freedom of Speech.
Firing coaches or cutting players at a public university is probably a violation of the 1st Amendment. At a private university perhaps not so much.
The ESPN Fayetteville decision is an interesting one. They are not only reacting to the protest that occurred but are essentially insuring that a 2nd protest doesn't get a wider audience than the fans at the game.
When college students protest the presentations by alt right commentators guaranteed to deliver offensive racist or misogynistic messages by trying to have their invitations to speak revoked, they are criticized by the right wing. I don't see the ESPN decision to be much different so I'll expect to see howls of indignation about ESPN from the academic freedom crowd any day now (*cough, cough*).
So far I don't see any problem with players or band members making their concerns about the deaths of young black men at the hands of police known. I think it's an issue that needs to be brought out into the open and discussed.
From what I've seen, I think in most cases the police are acting appropriately. In most cases but not all. It will never be perfect because none of us are perfect. The question is can it be made better?
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Election 2016 VII
OK, I admit it, I got bored doing these. I started too early and the posts were too complicated. I'll be doing these less frequently until we get closer to the election. I've also switched to the 4-way RCP average including Johnson and Stein.
Here's the bottom line, the election has tightened up to be essentially a dead heat. Clinton is getting a slight bounce from her drubbing of Trump in the first debate but, at least so far, not a lot.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 60.1%, Trump - 39.9% - Trump +7.9
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 62.4%, Trump - 37.5% - Trump +6.6
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 70.0%, Trump - 30.0% - Trump +4.7
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 43.9%, Trump 41.0%, Clinton +2.9 - Clinton +0.2
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 188, Trump - 165. Undecided - 185 - Clinton -41, Trump +31
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .68, Trump .32 - Clinton -.04, Trump - +.01
A couple of interesting observations. First, the betting odds haven't changed much and one has to wonder why. Second if the 4-way numbers are even close to accurate, whoever wins this election is going to be under 50% of the vote.
George W. Bush was under 50% at 47.87% in 2000. As a matter of fact Al Gore had more popular votes with 48.38%.
In 2004 George W. Bush got 50.7% of the vote. Barack Obama got 52.9% of the vote in 2008 and 51.1% in 2012.
The lowest popular vote percentages in the post-Roosevelt era are Richard Nixon in 1972 at 43.42% and Bill Clinton in 1992 at 43.01%. The "winner" of this election could come close to those numbers.
Here's the bottom line, the election has tightened up to be essentially a dead heat. Clinton is getting a slight bounce from her drubbing of Trump in the first debate but, at least so far, not a lot.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 60.1%, Trump - 39.9% - Trump +7.9
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 62.4%, Trump - 37.5% - Trump +6.6
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 70.0%, Trump - 30.0% - Trump +4.7
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 43.9%, Trump 41.0%, Clinton +2.9 - Clinton +0.2
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 188, Trump - 165. Undecided - 185 - Clinton -41, Trump +31
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .68, Trump .32 - Clinton -.04, Trump - +.01
A couple of interesting observations. First, the betting odds haven't changed much and one has to wonder why. Second if the 4-way numbers are even close to accurate, whoever wins this election is going to be under 50% of the vote.
George W. Bush was under 50% at 47.87% in 2000. As a matter of fact Al Gore had more popular votes with 48.38%.
In 2004 George W. Bush got 50.7% of the vote. Barack Obama got 52.9% of the vote in 2008 and 51.1% in 2012.
The lowest popular vote percentages in the post-Roosevelt era are Richard Nixon in 1972 at 43.42% and Bill Clinton in 1992 at 43.01%. The "winner" of this election could come close to those numbers.
Monday, September 12, 2016
Polygamy? Well, Sort of.
The diversity in this country is unreal. This is what frightens many conservatives. This is what frightens Trump supporters. It's not the only reason Trumpettes support the Drumpf but it's one of them.
There is a court case brought by the family in the TV show "Sister Wives" that would undo a special provision of the Utah law against polygamy. Kody Brown has one legal wife but three additional "wives" which live with the couple without legal marriage status.
I'm going to skip over the irony of the law being a Utah law as well as the question of why anyone in his right mind would want four wives and get right to my understanding of the issue.
The special provision apparently prohibits co-habitation with other partners even if there is a legal marriage with just one partner. Clearly marriage to two or more partners would be bigamy which is illegal and that's not what the Browns are challenging. They're challenging the provision which prohibits additional co-habitation. Brown claims to be legally married to only one wife but "spiritually married" to the other three.
They originally won in a lower court which ruled the law violated both the right to privacy and religious freedom. An appeal court ruled that the Browns couldn't bring suit because they hadn't actually been charged with violating the law. It never ruled on the Constitutional questions.
The Utah prosecutors say they usually leave polygamists like the Browns alone but need the law in order to pursue other polygamists that engage in underage "spiritual marriage" or sexual assault.
Exactly why the laws associated with statutory rape and sexual assault aren't adequate for this purpose eludes me but I suppose proving co-habitation is easier especially if the "wives" don't want to cooperate.
The 10th Circuit refused to hear the case so the Browns are appealing it to the Supreme Court.
I suspect their chances are between slim and none given that, as the appeal court ruled, they appear to lack standing. You would need a family actually charged under the law and, given the way prosecutors claim to apply it, that might be hard to find.
There is a court case brought by the family in the TV show "Sister Wives" that would undo a special provision of the Utah law against polygamy. Kody Brown has one legal wife but three additional "wives" which live with the couple without legal marriage status.
I'm going to skip over the irony of the law being a Utah law as well as the question of why anyone in his right mind would want four wives and get right to my understanding of the issue.
The special provision apparently prohibits co-habitation with other partners even if there is a legal marriage with just one partner. Clearly marriage to two or more partners would be bigamy which is illegal and that's not what the Browns are challenging. They're challenging the provision which prohibits additional co-habitation. Brown claims to be legally married to only one wife but "spiritually married" to the other three.
They originally won in a lower court which ruled the law violated both the right to privacy and religious freedom. An appeal court ruled that the Browns couldn't bring suit because they hadn't actually been charged with violating the law. It never ruled on the Constitutional questions.
The Utah prosecutors say they usually leave polygamists like the Browns alone but need the law in order to pursue other polygamists that engage in underage "spiritual marriage" or sexual assault.
Exactly why the laws associated with statutory rape and sexual assault aren't adequate for this purpose eludes me but I suppose proving co-habitation is easier especially if the "wives" don't want to cooperate.
The 10th Circuit refused to hear the case so the Browns are appealing it to the Supreme Court.
I suspect their chances are between slim and none given that, as the appeal court ruled, they appear to lack standing. You would need a family actually charged under the law and, given the way prosecutors claim to apply it, that might be hard to find.
The 2016 NFL Season has Begun!
Oh yeah, the insanity has started.
I watched three games yesterday or, most accurately one entire game, large parts of two others and the last two minutes or so of a fourth game. Two of the four games ended with a one point margin of victory and the third and fourth came close.
I watched most of the Jets vs. Bengals game and both teams looked pretty good to me. The Bengals managed a one point win 23-22 but both teams look like they're going to be tough.
I watched the entire Giants game and almost had a heart attack at the end. Those guys are going to kill me yet. The biggest news in that game was Dak Prescott, the rookie QB of the Cowboys from Mississippi State.
He was impressive. I'd say the Cowboys no longer need fear the retirement of Tony Romo. On the Giants side Victor Cruz looked healthy and the offensive line wasn't horrendous. We'll see how things go against a tougher defense. The game was a one point affair with the Giants squeaking it out 20-19.
After the Giants game they switched to the last few minutes of the Lions vs. Colts game. The Lions led 34-28 but Andrew Luck was doing his thing and soon the score was 35-34. It could have ended as another one pointer but the Lions drove for a field goal with 4 seconds left and the Colts ended up throwing an illegal forward pass in their own end zone on the kick-off resulting in a final score of 39-35 Lions.
I then watched a fair amount of the Sunday Night Game with the Brady-less Patriots at the Cardinals. I have to tell you that Jimmy Garoppolo looked pretty good at QB for the Pats as they beat the Cardinals 23-21 in what could have also been a one point finish but the Cardinals missed a field goal at the end of the game. Garoppolo may be ready but Brady is never going to retire. He'll still be playing at 65.
The NFL has long been after parity. They want every game to be a toss-up and as close as possible. Given two one pointers in marquee games yesterday and two others that could have been I'd say they're pretty damn close to that. There was also an overtime game in Kansas City and Oakland won with a late TD and two point conversion, again by one point, over New Orleans 35-34.
I watched three games yesterday or, most accurately one entire game, large parts of two others and the last two minutes or so of a fourth game. Two of the four games ended with a one point margin of victory and the third and fourth came close.
I watched most of the Jets vs. Bengals game and both teams looked pretty good to me. The Bengals managed a one point win 23-22 but both teams look like they're going to be tough.
I watched the entire Giants game and almost had a heart attack at the end. Those guys are going to kill me yet. The biggest news in that game was Dak Prescott, the rookie QB of the Cowboys from Mississippi State.
He was impressive. I'd say the Cowboys no longer need fear the retirement of Tony Romo. On the Giants side Victor Cruz looked healthy and the offensive line wasn't horrendous. We'll see how things go against a tougher defense. The game was a one point affair with the Giants squeaking it out 20-19.
After the Giants game they switched to the last few minutes of the Lions vs. Colts game. The Lions led 34-28 but Andrew Luck was doing his thing and soon the score was 35-34. It could have ended as another one pointer but the Lions drove for a field goal with 4 seconds left and the Colts ended up throwing an illegal forward pass in their own end zone on the kick-off resulting in a final score of 39-35 Lions.
I then watched a fair amount of the Sunday Night Game with the Brady-less Patriots at the Cardinals. I have to tell you that Jimmy Garoppolo looked pretty good at QB for the Pats as they beat the Cardinals 23-21 in what could have also been a one point finish but the Cardinals missed a field goal at the end of the game. Garoppolo may be ready but Brady is never going to retire. He'll still be playing at 65.
The NFL has long been after parity. They want every game to be a toss-up and as close as possible. Given two one pointers in marquee games yesterday and two others that could have been I'd say they're pretty damn close to that. There was also an overtime game in Kansas City and Oakland won with a late TD and two point conversion, again by one point, over New Orleans 35-34.
Clinton has Pneumonia
Yup, that green stuff Hillary has been coughing up is the sign of a severe respiratory infection. Her doctors have decided it's pneumonia and have put her on antibiotics.
I've never had pneumonia but I have had bronchitis and it's no laughing matter. A mate of mine did have pneumonia and it would reappear from time to time, as he described it, by making him wake up and cough his guts up in the middle of the night.
You can die from pneumonia. An ex-secretary of mine did just that and she was still fairly young at the time.
Is this a reason to vote for Trump instead? I don't think anything short of preventing an atomic war or preventing the return of the Black Death would be a reason to vote for Trump so the answer is a resounding NO!
Is this going to hurt her in the election? Probably it will, a lot.
I've never had pneumonia but I have had bronchitis and it's no laughing matter. A mate of mine did have pneumonia and it would reappear from time to time, as he described it, by making him wake up and cough his guts up in the middle of the night.
You can die from pneumonia. An ex-secretary of mine did just that and she was still fairly young at the time.
Is this a reason to vote for Trump instead? I don't think anything short of preventing an atomic war or preventing the return of the Black Death would be a reason to vote for Trump so the answer is a resounding NO!
Is this going to hurt her in the election? Probably it will, a lot.
Saturday, September 10, 2016
Election 2016 VI
It's Saturday and time for an update.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 68.0%, Trump - 32.0% - Trump +0.9
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 70.0%, Trump - 29.9% - Trump +1.4
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 74.7%, Trump - 25.3% - Clinton +4.1
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 45.6%, Trump 42.9%, Clinton +2.7 - Clinton -1.2
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 229, Trump - 154. Undecided - 155 - Unchanged
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .72, Trump .31 - Clinton +.02, Trump - No Change
The race continues to narrow. I seriously don't get it. A while back I observed that Trump has made open bigotry acceptable. Perhaps what we're finding out is how many bigots there are in this country?
Another tidbit that's a bit worrying is I saw an analysis that says that the live poll results and internet poll results are diverging with Clinton doing better in the live polls while Trump is doing better in the anonymous internet polls.
There is a rule of thumb that says people will sometimes lie and tell a pollster what they think they should say because they don't want the pollster to think badly of them. This is sometimes called the Bradley effect. On the Internet it's anonymous so this isn't an issue.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 68.0%, Trump - 32.0% - Trump +0.9
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 70.0%, Trump - 29.9% - Trump +1.4
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 74.7%, Trump - 25.3% - Clinton +4.1
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 45.6%, Trump 42.9%, Clinton +2.7 - Clinton -1.2
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 229, Trump - 154. Undecided - 155 - Unchanged
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .72, Trump .31 - Clinton +.02, Trump - No Change
The race continues to narrow. I seriously don't get it. A while back I observed that Trump has made open bigotry acceptable. Perhaps what we're finding out is how many bigots there are in this country?
Another tidbit that's a bit worrying is I saw an analysis that says that the live poll results and internet poll results are diverging with Clinton doing better in the live polls while Trump is doing better in the anonymous internet polls.
There is a rule of thumb that says people will sometimes lie and tell a pollster what they think they should say because they don't want the pollster to think badly of them. This is sometimes called the Bradley effect. On the Internet it's anonymous so this isn't an issue.
Saturday, September 03, 2016
Election 2016 V
What a difference a week makes. Things are a lot tighter. Clinton seems to be using a sort of "run out the clock" approach which just isn't working.
Trump, despite continuing to say and do things which should end his run, continues to gain. I'm sort of at a loss as to why this is happening but it is.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 68.9%, Trump - 31.1% - Trump +4.7
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 71.5%, Trump - 28.5% - Trump +10.0
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 70.6%, Trump - 29.3% - Trump +9.8
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 46.0%, Trump 42.1%, Clinton +3.9 - Clinton -2.4
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 229, Trump - 154. Undecided - 155 - Clinton - 43. Undecided +43
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .70, Trump .31 - Clinton -.01, Trump +.03
Whatever the Clinton camp is doing, it's clearly not working. The time has come to begin to panic because Hillary is apparently blowing it big time.
Trump, despite continuing to say and do things which should end his run, continues to gain. I'm sort of at a loss as to why this is happening but it is.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 68.9%, Trump - 31.1% - Trump +4.7
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 71.5%, Trump - 28.5% - Trump +10.0
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 70.6%, Trump - 29.3% - Trump +9.8
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 46.0%, Trump 42.1%, Clinton +3.9 - Clinton -2.4
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 229, Trump - 154. Undecided - 155 - Clinton - 43. Undecided +43
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .70, Trump .31 - Clinton -.01, Trump +.03
Whatever the Clinton camp is doing, it's clearly not working. The time has come to begin to panic because Hillary is apparently blowing it big time.
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Colin Kaepernick and the Star Spangled Banner
San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick refused to stand for the Star Spangled Banner at a pre-season football game the other night and, as a result, has come into a storm of criticism. He's also received support.
Kaepernick refused to stand as a protest against what he called the oppression of people of color.
Kaepernick is entitled to his opinion. That's how freedom of speech works. Others are also entitled to criticize him for that opinion. That's also how freedom of speech works. It's a two way street.
Some people are saying that Kaepernick shouldn't have protested while wearing a 49ers uniform. That it was inappropriate to protest essentially while at work. As far as I'm concerned that's an issue between Kaepernick and the 49ers.
I'm going to take a neutral stance on this one. Are there issues? Yes, there are. Are they as racially motivated as some make out? I don't think so. Certainly race plays a part but it's not the whole story.
Economics plays a large part. Poverty leads to crime and crime leads to confrontation with authority. Until we recognize all the parts of the play, things aren't going to change for the better and just might get worse.
Kaepernick refused to stand as a protest against what he called the oppression of people of color.
Kaepernick is entitled to his opinion. That's how freedom of speech works. Others are also entitled to criticize him for that opinion. That's also how freedom of speech works. It's a two way street.
Some people are saying that Kaepernick shouldn't have protested while wearing a 49ers uniform. That it was inappropriate to protest essentially while at work. As far as I'm concerned that's an issue between Kaepernick and the 49ers.
I'm going to take a neutral stance on this one. Are there issues? Yes, there are. Are they as racially motivated as some make out? I don't think so. Certainly race plays a part but it's not the whole story.
Economics plays a large part. Poverty leads to crime and crime leads to confrontation with authority. Until we recognize all the parts of the play, things aren't going to change for the better and just might get worse.
Saturday, August 27, 2016
The Kalam Cosmological Argument
This is a "proof" of the existence of God made popular by William Lane Craig and adopted by giddy theists everywhere. It has the appearance of simplicity and, to the casual reader or listener. may even look convincing.
The reality is that the argument's "simplicity" comes from being fast and loose with the precise meanings of words and making a number of unfounded assumptions. The argument, as put forward by Craig, is actually in two parts.
Part 1 - Demonstrating that the Universe has a cause.
1. Whatever begins to exist has a cause.
2. The Universe began to exist.
Therefore:
3. The Universe has a cause.
Part 2 - Defining that cause as God.
1. The universe has a cause;
2. If the universe has a cause, then an uncaused, personal Creator of the universe exists, who sans the universe is beginningless, changeless, immaterial, timeless, spaceless and enormously powerful;
3. Therefore: An uncaused, personal Creator of the universe exists, who sans the universe is beginningless, changeless, immaterial, timeless, spaceless and enormously powerful.
There are so many issues with this argument that it's difficult to know where to begin. Let's look at the argument a bit closer.
1. Whatever begins to exist has a cause. - Says who? In order to make such a statement you must have perfect knowledge of everything that has ever begun to exist or that ever will begin to exist.
While we're at it, define "begins to exist?" When does a table "begin to exist?" After the carpenter finishes building it? When the carpenter starts building it? When the wood arrives from the lumber yard? When the wood is cut at the lumber yard? When the tree from which the lumber is made is cut down or when the tree from which the lumber is made is planted?
Then you can define "cause." Are we speaking about a material cause? An efficient cause? Both? Sticking with the table analogy, the material cause would be the wood; the efficient cause would be the agent of change or the carpenter.
If you say that "cause" here only refers to a material cause then you are admitting that no efficient cause or agent of change is required. If you say "cause" refers to either an efficient cause or both then you are effectively assuming the conclusion in the first premise.
2. The universe began to exist - Again, says who? The mathematics of General Relativity that is used to wind the universe backward no longer works beyond when the universe is a Planck Time old (about 1x10-43 seconds). So no one can say anything about the universe prior to then. We don't know whether it existed or not.
The "Big Bang" simply marks the beginning of the expansion of the universe. No one knows anything about anything prior to that including whether the universe existed or not.
Given that neither premise is necessarily true, the conclusion that the universe had a cause is not necessarily true.
However even if you accept the premises and conclusion, the remainder of the argument that this "cause" should be "changeless, immaterial, timeless, spaceless and enormously powerful" and be a "personal creator" doesn't follow. These are simply a pair of unjustified assertions. An unsupported leap to the desired conclusion.
Even if there was a cause for the universe, this is no reason to conclude that this "cause" was intelligent or even that it survived the creation of the universe.
So, there really is no reason to be impressed with the Kalam Cosmological Argument. I'm not sure if Craig really believes this crap or if he knows it's nonsense but hopes his audience won't recognize it as such.
The reality is that the argument's "simplicity" comes from being fast and loose with the precise meanings of words and making a number of unfounded assumptions. The argument, as put forward by Craig, is actually in two parts.
Part 1 - Demonstrating that the Universe has a cause.
1. Whatever begins to exist has a cause.
2. The Universe began to exist.
Therefore:
3. The Universe has a cause.
Part 2 - Defining that cause as God.
1. The universe has a cause;
2. If the universe has a cause, then an uncaused, personal Creator of the universe exists, who sans the universe is beginningless, changeless, immaterial, timeless, spaceless and enormously powerful;
3. Therefore: An uncaused, personal Creator of the universe exists, who sans the universe is beginningless, changeless, immaterial, timeless, spaceless and enormously powerful.
There are so many issues with this argument that it's difficult to know where to begin. Let's look at the argument a bit closer.
1. Whatever begins to exist has a cause. - Says who? In order to make such a statement you must have perfect knowledge of everything that has ever begun to exist or that ever will begin to exist.
While we're at it, define "begins to exist?" When does a table "begin to exist?" After the carpenter finishes building it? When the carpenter starts building it? When the wood arrives from the lumber yard? When the wood is cut at the lumber yard? When the tree from which the lumber is made is cut down or when the tree from which the lumber is made is planted?
Then you can define "cause." Are we speaking about a material cause? An efficient cause? Both? Sticking with the table analogy, the material cause would be the wood; the efficient cause would be the agent of change or the carpenter.
If you say that "cause" here only refers to a material cause then you are admitting that no efficient cause or agent of change is required. If you say "cause" refers to either an efficient cause or both then you are effectively assuming the conclusion in the first premise.
2. The universe began to exist - Again, says who? The mathematics of General Relativity that is used to wind the universe backward no longer works beyond when the universe is a Planck Time old (about 1x10-43 seconds). So no one can say anything about the universe prior to then. We don't know whether it existed or not.
The "Big Bang" simply marks the beginning of the expansion of the universe. No one knows anything about anything prior to that including whether the universe existed or not.
Given that neither premise is necessarily true, the conclusion that the universe had a cause is not necessarily true.
However even if you accept the premises and conclusion, the remainder of the argument that this "cause" should be "changeless, immaterial, timeless, spaceless and enormously powerful" and be a "personal creator" doesn't follow. These are simply a pair of unjustified assertions. An unsupported leap to the desired conclusion.
Even if there was a cause for the universe, this is no reason to conclude that this "cause" was intelligent or even that it survived the creation of the universe.
So, there really is no reason to be impressed with the Kalam Cosmological Argument. I'm not sure if Craig really believes this crap or if he knows it's nonsense but hopes his audience won't recognize it as such.
Election 2016 IV
My how time flies. Time for the Saturday update already? Perhaps I should cut this down to once a week?
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 73.6%, Trump - 26.4% - Trump +2.4
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 81.4%, Trump - 18.5% - Trump +3.3
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 81.5%, Trump - 18.5% - Trump +6.0
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 48.4%, Trump 42.1%, Clinton +6.3 - Clinton +0.9
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 272, Trump - 154. Undecided - 112 - No change.
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .72, Trump .28 - Clinton No Change, Trump No Change
The only real major shift is in the fivethirtyeight.com models and that's primarily because Arizona and Georgia appear to have shifted into the Trump column according to their models.
It's interesting how different prediction sites have slightly different takes on where some states will end up.
The latest buzzword is "Alt. Right" and the two candidates have taken to calling each other names. That doesn't strike me as terribly useful but I learned time ago that you don't get elected based upon facts. You get elected based upon how much emotion you can stir up.
Hey. I'm not immune to that either. I just get concerned that someday a candidate is going to unleash forces he can't control. Trump is coming close. He's simply too stupid to realize how idiotic some of his supporter are.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 73.6%, Trump - 26.4% - Trump +2.4
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 81.4%, Trump - 18.5% - Trump +3.3
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 81.5%, Trump - 18.5% - Trump +6.0
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton 48.4%, Trump 42.1%, Clinton +6.3 - Clinton +0.9
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 272, Trump - 154. Undecided - 112 - No change.
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .72, Trump .28 - Clinton No Change, Trump No Change
The only real major shift is in the fivethirtyeight.com models and that's primarily because Arizona and Georgia appear to have shifted into the Trump column according to their models.
It's interesting how different prediction sites have slightly different takes on where some states will end up.
The latest buzzword is "Alt. Right" and the two candidates have taken to calling each other names. That doesn't strike me as terribly useful but I learned time ago that you don't get elected based upon facts. You get elected based upon how much emotion you can stir up.
Hey. I'm not immune to that either. I just get concerned that someday a candidate is going to unleash forces he can't control. Trump is coming close. He's simply too stupid to realize how idiotic some of his supporter are.
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Election 2016 III
Time for the Wednesday update.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 76.2%, Trump - 23.8% - Clinton +1.0
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 84.7%, Trump - 15.2% - Trump +1.0
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 87.4%, Trump - 12.5% - Clinton +0.3
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton +5.4 - Trump +0.3
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 272, Trump - 154. Undecided - 112 - No change.
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .72, Trump .28 - Clinton +.01, Trump -.03
So things are pretty much holding steady. There's a slight tightening of the nationwide popular vote but the electoral vote counts are holding steady.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 76.2%, Trump - 23.8% - Clinton +1.0
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 84.7%, Trump - 15.2% - Trump +1.0
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 87.4%, Trump - 12.5% - Clinton +0.3
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton +5.4 - Trump +0.3
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 272, Trump - 154. Undecided - 112 - No change.
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .72, Trump .28 - Clinton +.01, Trump -.03
So things are pretty much holding steady. There's a slight tightening of the nationwide popular vote but the electoral vote counts are holding steady.
Saturday, August 20, 2016
Election 2016 II
Time for the Saturday update.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 75.2%, Trump - 24.8% - Trump +2.4
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 85.7%, Trump - 14.2% - Trump +1.7
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 87.1%, Trump - 12.8% - Trump +1.0
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton +5.7 - Trump +0.3
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 272, Trump - 154. Undecided - 112 - No change.
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .71, Trump .31 - Clinton -.04, Trump +.07
So a slight tightening of the race as Trump hasn't said anything excruciatingly stupid this week. In the meantime new campaign leadership is attempting a reboot of his campaign and making it look more like a normal political campaign.
I want to see his tax returns. There's no reason not to release them.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 75.2%, Trump - 24.8% - Trump +2.4
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 85.7%, Trump - 14.2% - Trump +1.7
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 87.1%, Trump - 12.8% - Trump +1.0
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton +5.7 - Trump +0.3
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 272, Trump - 154. Undecided - 112 - No change.
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .71, Trump .31 - Clinton -.04, Trump +.07
So a slight tightening of the race as Trump hasn't said anything excruciatingly stupid this week. In the meantime new campaign leadership is attempting a reboot of his campaign and making it look more like a normal political campaign.
I want to see his tax returns. There's no reason not to release them.
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
Election 2016
I've decided to expand my tracking of the election a bit to include Real Clear Politics and the current betting markets. I'll try to do updates Wednesday and Saturday until we get closer to the election.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 77.6%, Trump - 22.4% - No change.
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 87.4%, Trump - 12.5% - Trump +0.3
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 88.2%, Trump - 11.8% - Trump +2.6
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton +6.0
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 272, Trump - 154. Undecided - 112
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .75, Trump .24
There's still a long way to go and I expect the race to tighten as we move forward. Enthusiasm for Clinton isn't terribly strong and that's what gives Trump a chance although it's hard to believe that someone who has said as many stupid things as him is still in the race.
He also continues to demonstrate he's awful at picking advisers. This was something that was a Ronald Reagan strong point. He also continues to demonstrate an unwillingness to learn from the experts believing himself to be the ultimate expert on everything.
The combination of these two things is incredibly dangerous.
fivethirtyeight.com
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 77.6%, Trump - 22.4% - No change.
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 87.4%, Trump - 12.5% - Trump +0.3
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 88.2%, Trump - 11.8% - Trump +2.6
Real Clear Politics
Popular Vote - Clinton +6.0
Electoral Vote - Clinton - 272, Trump - 154. Undecided - 112
Predict It Betting Odds
Clinton .75, Trump .24
There's still a long way to go and I expect the race to tighten as we move forward. Enthusiasm for Clinton isn't terribly strong and that's what gives Trump a chance although it's hard to believe that someone who has said as many stupid things as him is still in the race.
He also continues to demonstrate he's awful at picking advisers. This was something that was a Ronald Reagan strong point. He also continues to demonstrate an unwillingness to learn from the experts believing himself to be the ultimate expert on everything.
The combination of these two things is incredibly dangerous.
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
The Mail
A somewhat exiting daily event, the arrival of the mail.
It's not nearly as exciting as it used to be as we have most of our bills on auto pay so we don't get many bills in the old snail mail. I get dire warnings about impending deductions via e-mail. I suppose they want me to make sure I have sufficient funds.
One exception is the water bill. They made it too painful to set up auto payments so I usually wait until it arrives and then pay it online.
Suez Water Company
So, on the top of the stack is an envelope from Suez (the new name of Hackensack Water) stamped "Reminder Enclosed." Couldn't be the bill; we already got one this month. Ah, yes, they're reminding me that I haven't bought their water line insurance for about $10 a quarter.
Let's see, I've been living here 32 years without this insurance and I've never had a problem so I figure I'm about $1300 ahead of the game. I think I'll just let it continue to slide.
Jo-Ann Fabric and Craft Stores
An advertisement plus coupons which is actually addressed to my #3 daughter. I'll let her decide what to do with it.
Family Circle Magazine
Actually it's addressed to my wife complete with what looks like a renewal bill and our daily 20% off coupon from Bed, Bath and Beyond. I'll let her worry about it.
New York University School of Professional Studies
Looks like a course catalog addressed to my #1 daughter. I'll let her worry about it.
The Woman Within
Hmm, plus side woman's brands addressed to my wife or current resident. I'll have to pretend I didn't see this or I'll be joining my wife on a diet for the next month or two.
Trader Joe's Fearless Flyer
An advertisement addressed to Resident containing my road map for cheating on that diet.
Valpak Coupons
Local store coupons addressed to Our Friends. I'll let my wife worry about that too.
American Express Platinum Card
My quarterly offer from American Express to apply for their platinum card. I already have a Bank of America Platinum Account with card and a Chase Freedom Card. I used to have an American Express from work but gave it up when I retired. I don't need it.
CVS Pharmacy
Samples and coupons addressed to my #1 daughter.
This was the sort of mail I like. Absolutely nothing for me to do and no headaches or problems. I like it.
It's not nearly as exciting as it used to be as we have most of our bills on auto pay so we don't get many bills in the old snail mail. I get dire warnings about impending deductions via e-mail. I suppose they want me to make sure I have sufficient funds.
One exception is the water bill. They made it too painful to set up auto payments so I usually wait until it arrives and then pay it online.
Suez Water Company
So, on the top of the stack is an envelope from Suez (the new name of Hackensack Water) stamped "Reminder Enclosed." Couldn't be the bill; we already got one this month. Ah, yes, they're reminding me that I haven't bought their water line insurance for about $10 a quarter.
Let's see, I've been living here 32 years without this insurance and I've never had a problem so I figure I'm about $1300 ahead of the game. I think I'll just let it continue to slide.
Jo-Ann Fabric and Craft Stores
An advertisement plus coupons which is actually addressed to my #3 daughter. I'll let her decide what to do with it.
Family Circle Magazine
Actually it's addressed to my wife complete with what looks like a renewal bill and our daily 20% off coupon from Bed, Bath and Beyond. I'll let her worry about it.
New York University School of Professional Studies
Looks like a course catalog addressed to my #1 daughter. I'll let her worry about it.
The Woman Within
Hmm, plus side woman's brands addressed to my wife or current resident. I'll have to pretend I didn't see this or I'll be joining my wife on a diet for the next month or two.
Trader Joe's Fearless Flyer
An advertisement addressed to Resident containing my road map for cheating on that diet.
Valpak Coupons
Local store coupons addressed to Our Friends. I'll let my wife worry about that too.
American Express Platinum Card
My quarterly offer from American Express to apply for their platinum card. I already have a Bank of America Platinum Account with card and a Chase Freedom Card. I used to have an American Express from work but gave it up when I retired. I don't need it.
CVS Pharmacy
Samples and coupons addressed to my #1 daughter.
This was the sort of mail I like. Absolutely nothing for me to do and no headaches or problems. I like it.
Saturday, August 13, 2016
Divided we Stand?
That we are a nation with fairly deep divides is not a secret. I think it's safe to say it has always been that way. But what has changed recently is the willingness of the political elite to use those divisions against us
In September of 2009 considering the widening of the gap between a left shifting Democratic Party and a right shifting Republican Party I predicted:
"It would be only a matter of time before one side or the other manages to elect a president that is totally unacceptable to the other side."
Welcome to 2016.
Trump is breaking all sorts of rules. He is pandering to the stupidity of his base and doing everything feasible to undermine the legitimacy of his losing the election in November.
He is outright declaring that if he loses it can only be because the election was rigged; he has hinted that violence might be necessary if Clinton wins.
His latest call is for "polling observers" which sound a lot like brown shirts to intimidate voters.
That it is still quite possible that he will win this election is mind boggling.
I'm going to follow fivethirtyeight.com for the rest of the time to the election. They're using three models this time around. A "Polls Only" model which is the same as the one used in 2008. A "Polls Plus" model which adds economic and historical factors and a "Now-cast" which considers who would win if the election were held immediately.
All three provide probability of winning numbers.
August 13, 2016
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 77.6%, Trump - 22.4%
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 87.8%, Trump - 12.2%
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 90.8%, Trump - 9.2%
But, of course, according to Trump and his Trumpettes these number are all lies anyway or based upon phony poll numbers. It's all a big conspiracy.
In September of 2009 considering the widening of the gap between a left shifting Democratic Party and a right shifting Republican Party I predicted:
"It would be only a matter of time before one side or the other manages to elect a president that is totally unacceptable to the other side."
Welcome to 2016.
Trump is breaking all sorts of rules. He is pandering to the stupidity of his base and doing everything feasible to undermine the legitimacy of his losing the election in November.
He is outright declaring that if he loses it can only be because the election was rigged; he has hinted that violence might be necessary if Clinton wins.
His latest call is for "polling observers" which sound a lot like brown shirts to intimidate voters.
That it is still quite possible that he will win this election is mind boggling.
I'm going to follow fivethirtyeight.com for the rest of the time to the election. They're using three models this time around. A "Polls Only" model which is the same as the one used in 2008. A "Polls Plus" model which adds economic and historical factors and a "Now-cast" which considers who would win if the election were held immediately.
All three provide probability of winning numbers.
August 13, 2016
Polls Plus Model - Clinton - 77.6%, Trump - 22.4%
Polls Only Model - Clinton - 87.8%, Trump - 12.2%
Now-cast Model - Clinton - 90.8%, Trump - 9.2%
But, of course, according to Trump and his Trumpettes these number are all lies anyway or based upon phony poll numbers. It's all a big conspiracy.
Saturday, August 06, 2016
The Rio Olympics
The Olympic Games began last night in Rio de Janeiro. I didn't watch it. I used to enjoy the games but now I pretty much ignore them.
I'm not really certain why that's the case. Maybe because the presidential elections occur in the same years and that seems so much more important?
I say seems because sometimes I think it's all an illusion.
I'm not really certain why that's the case. Maybe because the presidential elections occur in the same years and that seems so much more important?
I say seems because sometimes I think it's all an illusion.
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