It's been seven weeks since I had any desire to say anything about anything. A lot has happened in those seven weeks and I'm going to put down my thoughts about them in a few posts in no particular order.
Like Lazarus rising from the grave the Republican health care bill doesn't want to stay dead. I'm no expert and I will admit that I didn't have the heart to read the new bill so I'm sort of relying upon what others say, but I'll give you my impression.
The Republicans are absolutely full of crap. Yes they did rush the legislation without waiting for the CBO assessment or input from interested groups. So far I've heard the AMA and the AARP have both panned the bill.
You can't cut Medicaid dollars and essentially hope the states will pour money into some sort of high risk pool for people with preexisting conditions without guaranteeing a bunch of folks will either lose health insurance or not be able to get it.
The other thing I don't understand is why cut the tax on tanning salons? Is there anyone that seriously thinks we shouldn't be discouraging people from using those cancer incubation machines? I mean come on.
If you take all the sick people out of the market AND essentially put no requirements on what a health care policy has to include of course premiums are going to come down. Profits are also going to go up but some people are also going to die.
In the meantime the senate sounds like its going to essentially write their own bill. Can't wait to see that one.
It seems pretty simple to me that you write a bill you need to include two important things in a summary somewhere.
(1) What is the objective or objectives of the bill.
(2) A specific explanation, complete with numbers, on how this bill is expected to accomplish that objective or those objectives.
If you can't specify these two things, then you're just blowing hot air.
Saturday, May 13, 2017
Sunday, March 26, 2017
Transgender Confusion
I never cease to be amazed about the ignorance making the rounds about transgender individuals.
No one is telling anyone that they can be a girl if that's what they want to be. Let me try and explain it as I understand it.
Sex: Is determined by biology and can be either male, female or intersex. Intersex individuals make up about 1.6% of the population and have either physical or chromosomal characteristics that don't match the typical male or female types,
Gender: Refers to the socially constructed roles, behaviors, activities, and attributes that a given society considers appropriate for boys and men or girls and women. Obviously gender is not arbitrary but extensively influenced by sexual characteristics.
Gender Dysphoria: Strong, persistent feelings of identification with the opposite gender and discomfort with one's own biological sex that results in significant distress or impairment.
To be clinically diagnosed with gender dysphoria:
A. Must persistently and strongly identify with the opposite gender (aside from desiring any perceived cultural advantage of being the other gender).
B. A persistent discomfort with his or her sex traits or sense of inappropriateness of the gender associated with those traits. Must have strong discomfort with own gender and express that discomfort.
C. Not concurrent with physical intersex condition.
D. Causes clinically significant distress or impairment in social, occupational or other important areas of functioning.
I don't know where people get this impression that one can simply declare themselves a member of the other gender. For instance one would not be recognized as transgender in a school environment without psychiatric concurrence.
The number of transgender individuals in the US is minuscule. Depending upon whose numbers you believe they are somewhere between 0.3% and 0.6% of the population.
To put this in perspective, 14% of the US population lives in poverty so I figure we have much more important things to worry about.
No one is telling anyone that they can be a girl if that's what they want to be. Let me try and explain it as I understand it.
Sex: Is determined by biology and can be either male, female or intersex. Intersex individuals make up about 1.6% of the population and have either physical or chromosomal characteristics that don't match the typical male or female types,
Gender: Refers to the socially constructed roles, behaviors, activities, and attributes that a given society considers appropriate for boys and men or girls and women. Obviously gender is not arbitrary but extensively influenced by sexual characteristics.
Gender Dysphoria: Strong, persistent feelings of identification with the opposite gender and discomfort with one's own biological sex that results in significant distress or impairment.
To be clinically diagnosed with gender dysphoria:
A. Must persistently and strongly identify with the opposite gender (aside from desiring any perceived cultural advantage of being the other gender).
B. A persistent discomfort with his or her sex traits or sense of inappropriateness of the gender associated with those traits. Must have strong discomfort with own gender and express that discomfort.
C. Not concurrent with physical intersex condition.
D. Causes clinically significant distress or impairment in social, occupational or other important areas of functioning.
I don't know where people get this impression that one can simply declare themselves a member of the other gender. For instance one would not be recognized as transgender in a school environment without psychiatric concurrence.
The number of transgender individuals in the US is minuscule. Depending upon whose numbers you believe they are somewhere between 0.3% and 0.6% of the population.
To put this in perspective, 14% of the US population lives in poverty so I figure we have much more important things to worry about.
Thursday, March 16, 2017
Meals on Wheels
Meals on Wheels is a program that bring food to the elderly that a difficult time shopping for themselves are on a limited budget.
The food isn't fancy but it's generally nutritious. It's delivered by volunteers so the cost is mostly for the food.
But not to worry, according the Trump White House the program is "not showing any results" so they want to cut it in order to free up funds for a $54 billion increase to defense spending.
Like the man said, Republicans only care for themselves.
What the hell kind of results are you expecting from delivering small parcels of food to older folk who otherwise might not be eating regularly?
Is this part of the Republican plan to help out Social Security? Kill off the elderly so they stop collecting?
And to make matters worse, the extra money they want to spend on defense appears to be earmarked for the wrong sort of stuff. They want to fight the cold war rather than a 21st cetury war where insurgency and cyber warfare are the real dangers.
Give me a goddamn break.
The food isn't fancy but it's generally nutritious. It's delivered by volunteers so the cost is mostly for the food.
But not to worry, according the Trump White House the program is "not showing any results" so they want to cut it in order to free up funds for a $54 billion increase to defense spending.
Like the man said, Republicans only care for themselves.
What the hell kind of results are you expecting from delivering small parcels of food to older folk who otherwise might not be eating regularly?
Is this part of the Republican plan to help out Social Security? Kill off the elderly so they stop collecting?
And to make matters worse, the extra money they want to spend on defense appears to be earmarked for the wrong sort of stuff. They want to fight the cold war rather than a 21st cetury war where insurgency and cyber warfare are the real dangers.
Give me a goddamn break.
Wednesday, February 08, 2017
Trump
Every day Trump gives more evidence that he is precisely what we were afraid he was, self centered, immature, delusional and a lousy judge of character.
He is the ultimate example of the Dunning-Kruger effect and appears to be working overtime to make himself look ridiculous.
I'd like to offer him some free advice.
(1) Stop being distracted by trivial nonsense. What difference does it make who's inauguration crowd was bigger?
(2) Get a grip on reality. There was no voter fraud. You really did lose the popular vote and no, the media is not refusing to report terrorist incidents. If anything they beat them to death like a bunch of ghouls.
(3) Get rid of the obvious incompetents giving you bad advice and making you look dumb. That includes Steve Bannon, Alex Jones, Kellyanne Conway and that utter clown Sean Spicer.
(4) Stop listening to the Religious Right. Collect the actual facts before making a decision.
(5) Get rid of your Twitter account.
If you listen to me then maybe, just maybe, we might avoid a national catastrophe.
He is the ultimate example of the Dunning-Kruger effect and appears to be working overtime to make himself look ridiculous.
I'd like to offer him some free advice.
(1) Stop being distracted by trivial nonsense. What difference does it make who's inauguration crowd was bigger?
(2) Get a grip on reality. There was no voter fraud. You really did lose the popular vote and no, the media is not refusing to report terrorist incidents. If anything they beat them to death like a bunch of ghouls.
(3) Get rid of the obvious incompetents giving you bad advice and making you look dumb. That includes Steve Bannon, Alex Jones, Kellyanne Conway and that utter clown Sean Spicer.
(4) Stop listening to the Religious Right. Collect the actual facts before making a decision.
(5) Get rid of your Twitter account.
If you listen to me then maybe, just maybe, we might avoid a national catastrophe.
Super Bowl LI
I was almost dozing off. I actually started finishing "Around the World in 80 Days" on my tablet. It was 28-3 Falcons. I figured I'd just kill time till the game was over.
As Phileas Fogg and Passpartout were looking for a ship across the Atlantic the Patriots scored but then missed the extra point. That made it 28-9 and I remember thinking to myself "boy, nothing is going right for these guys."
A short while later the Patriots failed to get into the end zone and settled for a field goal. The score was 28-12 and Joe Buck was desperately trying to keep the interest up by exclaiming that it was now a two score game.
I remember thinking, "yeah two scores and two 2-point conversions."
As Phileas Fogg starting burning the last of the good ship Henrietta's upper structure the Pats scored again and got the 2-point conversion. I put my tablet down. The score was 28-20 and Tom Brady was clearly in the zone.
Even so the Falcons blew a chance to just about put the game away by allowing a big sack followed by a holding penalty when they were inside the 25 yard line. Two running plays, burning time off the clock or forcing the Pats to us their timeouts, followed by a field goal would have made the score 31-20 and the Patriots would have been hurting big time.
Instead they ended up punting. Brady took the Patriots down to the tying score and then took the overtime kickoff and just as easily marched to the winning touchdown for a 34-28 come from behind win.
Is there anyone in the country that still doubts that Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL?
As Phileas Fogg and Passpartout were looking for a ship across the Atlantic the Patriots scored but then missed the extra point. That made it 28-9 and I remember thinking to myself "boy, nothing is going right for these guys."
A short while later the Patriots failed to get into the end zone and settled for a field goal. The score was 28-12 and Joe Buck was desperately trying to keep the interest up by exclaiming that it was now a two score game.
I remember thinking, "yeah two scores and two 2-point conversions."
As Phileas Fogg starting burning the last of the good ship Henrietta's upper structure the Pats scored again and got the 2-point conversion. I put my tablet down. The score was 28-20 and Tom Brady was clearly in the zone.
Even so the Falcons blew a chance to just about put the game away by allowing a big sack followed by a holding penalty when they were inside the 25 yard line. Two running plays, burning time off the clock or forcing the Pats to us their timeouts, followed by a field goal would have made the score 31-20 and the Patriots would have been hurting big time.
Instead they ended up punting. Brady took the Patriots down to the tying score and then took the overtime kickoff and just as easily marched to the winning touchdown for a 34-28 come from behind win.
Is there anyone in the country that still doubts that Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL?
Friday, January 20, 2017
Trump's Cabinet
Trump's not off to a very good start.
Many of his choices for cabinet posts are absolutely dreadful.
Rick Perry didn't even know what the department he now leads does. DeVos thinks the public schools should be used to pave the way for God's Kingdom and doesn't understand the basics of education. As for Ben Carson, maybe we'll get lucky and he'll lose his way trying to get to Washington.
Those are the total incompetents and I'll be surprised if any of them last a year.
Then we get the downright spiteful. Tom Price who would like nothing better than to dismantle Medicare, Steve Mnuchin who thinks swindling 80 plus year old grandmas in search of a profit is just fine and dandy, Scott Pruitt who thinks environmental regulations should be left up to the states and Jeff Sessions who seems to think they had it right back in the 1950s Jim Crow South.
On the plus side Linda McMahon for the SBA is probably his best pick and I think Rex Tillerson may turn out to be his most critical pick since he's about the only guy that might be capable of beating any sense into Trump's thick skull.
Many of his choices for cabinet posts are absolutely dreadful.
Rick Perry didn't even know what the department he now leads does. DeVos thinks the public schools should be used to pave the way for God's Kingdom and doesn't understand the basics of education. As for Ben Carson, maybe we'll get lucky and he'll lose his way trying to get to Washington.
Those are the total incompetents and I'll be surprised if any of them last a year.
Then we get the downright spiteful. Tom Price who would like nothing better than to dismantle Medicare, Steve Mnuchin who thinks swindling 80 plus year old grandmas in search of a profit is just fine and dandy, Scott Pruitt who thinks environmental regulations should be left up to the states and Jeff Sessions who seems to think they had it right back in the 1950s Jim Crow South.
On the plus side Linda McMahon for the SBA is probably his best pick and I think Rex Tillerson may turn out to be his most critical pick since he's about the only guy that might be capable of beating any sense into Trump's thick skull.
Wednesday, January 11, 2017
Clemson vs. Alabama
That was a great game. That was more than a great game. That was an absolute classic as Clemson took down Alabama 35-31.
Clemson trailed 24-14 as the 4th quarter began, They cut the score to 24-21 and then, with 4 minutes left, took the lead for the first time 28-24.
But we're talking about Alabama here and the Tide came roaring back sparked by a 24 yard trick play lateral and a 30 yard scramble by true freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts for a touchdown to take the lead back 31-28 with 2 minutes left.
But Deshaun Watson and Clemson weren't done yet. They methodically moved the ball to the Alabama 9 yard line and called timeout with 14 seconds left.
The big question was how many chances would Clemson get to win it before going for a tying field goal remembering of course that Alabama was a team that lived by taking the ball away.
The next play was an incomplete pass moving the clock down to 9 seconds. The next pass went to the end zone and Alabama was called for pass interference which placed the ball at the 2 yard line with 6 seconds left.
Then, in a thing of beauty, Clemson ran a pick play to the right side and Watson dropped it into 5'11" 180 pound Hunter Renfrow for the TD.
Renfrow had been a thorn in the side of Alabama all night with 10 catches for 92 yards and 2 TDs but, perhaps bigger, was a huge tackle to prevent a recovered fumble from turning into an Alabama TD that would have made the score 21-7 early in the 3rd quarter. Instead the Clemson defense held and Alabama had to settle for a field goal.
But the game wasn't quite over yet. There was still one second on the clock. Clemson dribbled the kickoff and fell on it after it had gone 10 yards, The celebrations began, everyone poured out onto the field but there was still one second on the clock.
The zebras began to huddle. The field was cleared. Calls were made upstairs to the replay booth. The game announcers were confused and all half of America could think of was, "Oh no. They're going to pull out some obscure rule, give the ball to Alabama and there will still be a chance for them to win."
But it wasn't to be. Clemson's Watson took a knee from victory formation and the game was over.
Clemson trailed 24-14 as the 4th quarter began, They cut the score to 24-21 and then, with 4 minutes left, took the lead for the first time 28-24.
But we're talking about Alabama here and the Tide came roaring back sparked by a 24 yard trick play lateral and a 30 yard scramble by true freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts for a touchdown to take the lead back 31-28 with 2 minutes left.
But Deshaun Watson and Clemson weren't done yet. They methodically moved the ball to the Alabama 9 yard line and called timeout with 14 seconds left.
The big question was how many chances would Clemson get to win it before going for a tying field goal remembering of course that Alabama was a team that lived by taking the ball away.
The next play was an incomplete pass moving the clock down to 9 seconds. The next pass went to the end zone and Alabama was called for pass interference which placed the ball at the 2 yard line with 6 seconds left.
Then, in a thing of beauty, Clemson ran a pick play to the right side and Watson dropped it into 5'11" 180 pound Hunter Renfrow for the TD.
Renfrow had been a thorn in the side of Alabama all night with 10 catches for 92 yards and 2 TDs but, perhaps bigger, was a huge tackle to prevent a recovered fumble from turning into an Alabama TD that would have made the score 21-7 early in the 3rd quarter. Instead the Clemson defense held and Alabama had to settle for a field goal.
But the game wasn't quite over yet. There was still one second on the clock. Clemson dribbled the kickoff and fell on it after it had gone 10 yards, The celebrations began, everyone poured out onto the field but there was still one second on the clock.
The zebras began to huddle. The field was cleared. Calls were made upstairs to the replay booth. The game announcers were confused and all half of America could think of was, "Oh no. They're going to pull out some obscure rule, give the ball to Alabama and there will still be a chance for them to win."
But it wasn't to be. Clemson's Watson took a knee from victory formation and the game was over.
Tuesday, January 03, 2017
The College Football Semi-finals
Wow. The Alabama defense is scary and the Clemson defense looked just as scary.
Alabama took care of Washington 24-7. Clemson utterly obliterated Ohio State 31-0 but it wasn't even that close. What impressed me was Clemson's defense which held Ohio State to 216 yards while the Clemson offense racked up 473 yards.
So January 9th we get the final. Alabama is a 6.5 point favorite but if anyone can calm the Tide I have to believe it's Clemson.
Should be fun.
Alabama took care of Washington 24-7. Clemson utterly obliterated Ohio State 31-0 but it wasn't even that close. What impressed me was Clemson's defense which held Ohio State to 216 yards while the Clemson offense racked up 473 yards.
So January 9th we get the final. Alabama is a 6.5 point favorite but if anyone can calm the Tide I have to believe it's Clemson.
Should be fun.
Saturday, December 24, 2016
Gender Neutral Pronouns
It seems the latest thing around the old student union is the idea of using a "gender neutral" pronoun if you don't know the person's "preferred gender pronoun." Some people even suggest that we let people come up with their own genders.
Now, if we're going to go down this road then we really need to agree on what's sex and what's gender.
According to the American Psychological Association your body determines your sex. Gender refers to the attitudes, feelings, and behaviors that a given culture associates with a person’s physical sex. Obviously Gender is not arbitrary and is very heavily influenced by sex. But it is actually distinct. As for sex, the APA recognizes three sexes, male, female and intersex. Intersex consists of a series of physical conditions in which a person is born with a reproductive or sexual anatomy that doesn't seem to fit the typical definitions of female or male. Intersex folks are believed to consist of about 1,7% of the population. In other words, about as prevalent as people with red hair. Then we get to Transgender. Apparently, the term covers a number of non-conforming psychological cases the best known of which are Transsexuals who feel their gender doesn't match their sex. But apparently there are other definitions which, to be honest, I don't really understand. The famous 51 or 58 or 71, depending upon who you ask, gender options that Facebook provides appear to contain lots of different ways of saying the same thing. For instance Cis Female, Cis Woman, Cisgender Female and Cisgender Woman all mean the same thing; a female who has a feminine gender identity. The latest estimates places the number of transgenders at 0.6% of the population.or about double the previous estimate of 0.3%. The 0.6% number came from a Williams Institute analysis (http://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/How-Many-Adults-Identify-as-Transgender-in-the-United-States.pdf) Now as I understand it both intersex and transgender types may prefer gender neutral pronouns. I haven't asked all of them so I can't say for sure. Assuming the estimates are correct that would be about 2.3% of the population. According to Pew Research that's greater than the number of Muslims (0.6%), the number of Mormons (1.6%), the number of Hindus (0.7%), the number of Buddhists (0.7%) and the number of Jews (1.9%) in the US so it's not really a minuscule number. Does it seem a little silly? Sure, but I remember people saying the same thing about Ms. back in the 1960s and now it's pretty much standard usage in the business world. Maybe there's a happy medium which isn't completely crazy. The idea of "choose your own pronoun" is obviously nuts but I don't see much of a problem with introducing gender neutral pronouns. If nothing else it will keep me from grinding my teeth when someone uses "she" when the sex is unknown instead of "he" (or they) which are (or were) the traditionally accepted usage in that case.
Now, if we're going to go down this road then we really need to agree on what's sex and what's gender.
According to the American Psychological Association your body determines your sex. Gender refers to the attitudes, feelings, and behaviors that a given culture associates with a person’s physical sex. Obviously Gender is not arbitrary and is very heavily influenced by sex. But it is actually distinct. As for sex, the APA recognizes three sexes, male, female and intersex. Intersex consists of a series of physical conditions in which a person is born with a reproductive or sexual anatomy that doesn't seem to fit the typical definitions of female or male. Intersex folks are believed to consist of about 1,7% of the population. In other words, about as prevalent as people with red hair. Then we get to Transgender. Apparently, the term covers a number of non-conforming psychological cases the best known of which are Transsexuals who feel their gender doesn't match their sex. But apparently there are other definitions which, to be honest, I don't really understand. The famous 51 or 58 or 71, depending upon who you ask, gender options that Facebook provides appear to contain lots of different ways of saying the same thing. For instance Cis Female, Cis Woman, Cisgender Female and Cisgender Woman all mean the same thing; a female who has a feminine gender identity. The latest estimates places the number of transgenders at 0.6% of the population.or about double the previous estimate of 0.3%. The 0.6% number came from a Williams Institute analysis (http://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/How-Many-Adults-Identify-as-Transgender-in-the-United-States.pdf) Now as I understand it both intersex and transgender types may prefer gender neutral pronouns. I haven't asked all of them so I can't say for sure. Assuming the estimates are correct that would be about 2.3% of the population. According to Pew Research that's greater than the number of Muslims (0.6%), the number of Mormons (1.6%), the number of Hindus (0.7%), the number of Buddhists (0.7%) and the number of Jews (1.9%) in the US so it's not really a minuscule number. Does it seem a little silly? Sure, but I remember people saying the same thing about Ms. back in the 1960s and now it's pretty much standard usage in the business world. Maybe there's a happy medium which isn't completely crazy. The idea of "choose your own pronoun" is obviously nuts but I don't see much of a problem with introducing gender neutral pronouns. If nothing else it will keep me from grinding my teeth when someone uses "she" when the sex is unknown instead of "he" (or they) which are (or were) the traditionally accepted usage in that case.
Saturday, December 17, 2016
Thoughts on Trump
Here's the fundamental problem. Trump doesn't take rejection well and he takes being outsmarted by someone even worse. His single biggest weak point is that he's too conceited to listen to the experts and that includes Intelligence experts. Putin is smarter than Trump and I think he has a good handle on Trump's personality foibles.
The scenario I see is Putin leading Trump around by his nose while Trump remains convinced that he's actually in control. He will hold onto onto that opinion, despite what the Intelligence community is telling him, until it becomes impossible for even him to continue lying to himself. When that day comes it's going to get terribly scary.
The basic problem with just about everything Trump has "promised," is that while many are laudable objectives, most have associated with them high risk implementations which could go drastically wrong. I suppose we shall see what we shall see but:
- There's isn't going to be a wall. It's too expensive and too controversial.
- Any tax reform will make the already rich richer and do nothing for 98% of the country.
- Manufacturing jobs aren't coming back in any quantity. If he makes it too expensive to build stuff abroad through tariffs, any factories built here will be so highly automated that the number of manufacturing jobs will be minimal. Where the jobs will be is where they are now, high tech and engineering positions to design, build and maintain the robots.
- The vetting of refugees is already extreme. It's much easier to enter the country through any of the various visas.
- You can't repeal Obamacare without replacing it or removing the unfunded mandate that hospitals must treat the sick and injured regardless of their ability to pay which has been in effect since the early 1980s. The big issue with healthcare is the list of "stuff you might have and should be screened for" continues to grow and the cost of the treatments continue to balloon. It's a problem but removing health insurance from 12 million people is probably not the answer.
- Climate change is a real issue and even his Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson acknowledges that it's a problem. Tillerson however believes that it's not progressing as fast as the models indicate and that's it's basically an engineering problem. I hope he's right but the latest research suggests that it may be progressing faster than the models indicate.
As for the maniacs he may appoint to the Supreme Court, we'll have to wait and see.
- Any tax reform will make the already rich richer and do nothing for 98% of the country.
- Manufacturing jobs aren't coming back in any quantity. If he makes it too expensive to build stuff abroad through tariffs, any factories built here will be so highly automated that the number of manufacturing jobs will be minimal. Where the jobs will be is where they are now, high tech and engineering positions to design, build and maintain the robots.
- The vetting of refugees is already extreme. It's much easier to enter the country through any of the various visas.
- You can't repeal Obamacare without replacing it or removing the unfunded mandate that hospitals must treat the sick and injured regardless of their ability to pay which has been in effect since the early 1980s. The big issue with healthcare is the list of "stuff you might have and should be screened for" continues to grow and the cost of the treatments continue to balloon. It's a problem but removing health insurance from 12 million people is probably not the answer.
- Climate change is a real issue and even his Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson acknowledges that it's a problem. Tillerson however believes that it's not progressing as fast as the models indicate and that's it's basically an engineering problem. I hope he's right but the latest research suggests that it may be progressing faster than the models indicate.
As for the maniacs he may appoint to the Supreme Court, we'll have to wait and see.
Wednesday, December 07, 2016
College Football Poll Final
No big upsets but as usual some perplexing changes. The final list.
#1 - Alabama (12-0) (beat Florida 54-16)
#2 - Clemson (12-1) (beat Virginia Tech 42-35)
#3 - Ohio State (11-1) (bye)
#4 - Washington (12-1) (beat Colorado State 41-10)
#5 - Penn State (11-2) (beat Wisconsin 38-31)
#6 - Michigan (10-2) (bye)
#7 - Oklahoma (10-2) (beat Oklahoma State 38-20)
#8 - Wisconsin (10-2) (lost to Penn State 38-31)
#9 - Southern California (9-3) (bye)
#10 - Colorado (10-3) (lost to Washington 41-10)
Dropped out of top 10:
#12 - Oklahoma State (9-3) (lost to Oklahoma 38-20)
I find it puzzling that Clemson moved past Ohio State. I can understand Penn State moving ahead of Wisconsin but why also move ahead of Michigan? The real puzzler is why Southern California, by not playing, jumped ahead of both Oklahoma State and Colorado.
Oh well, the top four are set and with the possible exception of wondering why Clemson is #2 rather than Ohio State they seem reasonable except of course one could argue that Penn State, the Big 10 Champion, should be included instead of Ohio State.
On to the playoffs!!! The semi finals will be on December 31st.
Washington will play Alabama in the Peach Bowl at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. I think I'll go with Alabama.
Ohio State will play Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale Arizona. I think I'll go with Ohio State.
The Championship Game will be on January 9th at 8 PM at the Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Florida.
#1 - Alabama (12-0) (beat Florida 54-16)
#2 - Clemson (12-1) (beat Virginia Tech 42-35)
#3 - Ohio State (11-1) (bye)
#4 - Washington (12-1) (beat Colorado State 41-10)
#5 - Penn State (11-2) (beat Wisconsin 38-31)
#6 - Michigan (10-2) (bye)
#7 - Oklahoma (10-2) (beat Oklahoma State 38-20)
#8 - Wisconsin (10-2) (lost to Penn State 38-31)
#9 - Southern California (9-3) (bye)
#10 - Colorado (10-3) (lost to Washington 41-10)
Dropped out of top 10:
#12 - Oklahoma State (9-3) (lost to Oklahoma 38-20)
I find it puzzling that Clemson moved past Ohio State. I can understand Penn State moving ahead of Wisconsin but why also move ahead of Michigan? The real puzzler is why Southern California, by not playing, jumped ahead of both Oklahoma State and Colorado.
Oh well, the top four are set and with the possible exception of wondering why Clemson is #2 rather than Ohio State they seem reasonable except of course one could argue that Penn State, the Big 10 Champion, should be included instead of Ohio State.
On to the playoffs!!! The semi finals will be on December 31st.
Washington will play Alabama in the Peach Bowl at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. I think I'll go with Alabama.
Ohio State will play Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale Arizona. I think I'll go with Ohio State.
The Championship Game will be on January 9th at 8 PM at the Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Florida.
Friday, December 02, 2016
College Football Poll week 13
The big game was Michigan at Ohio State. It was a nail biter with OSU winning in double overtime thanks to "the spot." On 4th and one in the second overtime OSU QB J.T. Barrett made the 1st down by half an eyelash. On the next play Curtis Samuel took it 15 yards to win it.
The call was so close that some dude did a pixel analysis on the play and concluded the 1st down was made by three pixels. I saw it; it was close.
#1 - Alabama (12-0) (beat Auburn 30-12)
#2 - Ohio State (11-1) (beat Michigan 30-27)
#3 - Clemson (11-1) (beat South Carolina 56-7)
#4 - Washington (11-1) (beat Washington State 45-17)
#5 - Michigan (10-2) (lost to Ohio State 30-27)
#6 - Wisconsin (10-2) (beat Minnesota 31-17)
#7 - Penn State (10-2) (beat Michigan State 45-12)
#8 - Colorado (10-2) (beat Utah 27-22)
#9 - Oklahoma (9-2) (bye)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (bye)
So both Washington and Clemson hopped over Michigan while Colorado moved up by playing while Oklahoma prepared for Oklahoma State.
The only other teams from the top ten playing will be in the conference championship games but there are going to be some biggies that could easily shake things up. Week 15 there will be only the Army vs. Navy game (GO Army, BEAT Navy).
#1 Alabama will be at #15 Florida in the SEC Championship
#4 Washington will host #8 Colorado in the PAC-12 Championship
#3 Clemson will be at #23 Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship
#6 Wisconsin will be at #7 Penn State in the Big 10 Championship
Now, while one wouldn't think there would be any surprises one never knows. That's why they have to play the game. My guess is the best chance for an upset would be Colorado beating Washington. That could be a real mess if Wisconsin beats Penn State. Who then would be #4? Michigan, Wisconsin or Washington?
The call was so close that some dude did a pixel analysis on the play and concluded the 1st down was made by three pixels. I saw it; it was close.
#1 - Alabama (12-0) (beat Auburn 30-12)
#2 - Ohio State (11-1) (beat Michigan 30-27)
#3 - Clemson (11-1) (beat South Carolina 56-7)
#4 - Washington (11-1) (beat Washington State 45-17)
#5 - Michigan (10-2) (lost to Ohio State 30-27)
#6 - Wisconsin (10-2) (beat Minnesota 31-17)
#7 - Penn State (10-2) (beat Michigan State 45-12)
#8 - Colorado (10-2) (beat Utah 27-22)
#9 - Oklahoma (9-2) (bye)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (bye)
So both Washington and Clemson hopped over Michigan while Colorado moved up by playing while Oklahoma prepared for Oklahoma State.
The only other teams from the top ten playing will be in the conference championship games but there are going to be some biggies that could easily shake things up. Week 15 there will be only the Army vs. Navy game (GO Army, BEAT Navy).
#1 Alabama will be at #15 Florida in the SEC Championship
#4 Washington will host #8 Colorado in the PAC-12 Championship
#3 Clemson will be at #23 Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship
#6 Wisconsin will be at #7 Penn State in the Big 10 Championship
Now, while one wouldn't think there would be any surprises one never knows. That's why they have to play the game. My guess is the best chance for an upset would be Colorado beating Washington. That could be a real mess if Wisconsin beats Penn State. Who then would be #4? Michigan, Wisconsin or Washington?
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
College Football Poll Week 12
The standings after week 12.
#1 - Alabama (11-0) (beat Chattanooga 31-3)
#2 - Ohio State (10-1) (beat Michigan State 17-16)
#3 - Michigan (10-1) (beat Indiana 20-10)
#4 - Clemson (10-1) (beat Wake Forest 35-13)
#5 - Washington (10-1) (beat Arizona State 44-18)
#6 - Wisconsin (9-2) (beat Purdue 49-20)
#7 - Penn State (9-2) (beat Rutgers 39-0)
#8 - Oklahoma (9-2) (beat West Virginia 56-28)
#9 - Colorado (9-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (beat TCU 31-6)
Dropping out of the top 10:
#11 - Louisville (9-2) (lost to Houston 36-10)
The most interesting game for week 13 by far will be Michigan at Ohio State. Those two don't like each other normally but meeting head to head at 10-1 with a spot in the playoffs potentially on the line should make things extra interesting.
It's set for noon on Saturday.
Elsewhere Washington will be at Washington State, Wisconsin hosts an 8-3 Minnesota and Alabama will host Auburn.
#1 - Alabama (11-0) (beat Chattanooga 31-3)
#2 - Ohio State (10-1) (beat Michigan State 17-16)
#3 - Michigan (10-1) (beat Indiana 20-10)
#4 - Clemson (10-1) (beat Wake Forest 35-13)
#5 - Washington (10-1) (beat Arizona State 44-18)
#6 - Wisconsin (9-2) (beat Purdue 49-20)
#7 - Penn State (9-2) (beat Rutgers 39-0)
#8 - Oklahoma (9-2) (beat West Virginia 56-28)
#9 - Colorado (9-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)
#10 - Oklahoma State (9-2) (beat TCU 31-6)
Dropping out of the top 10:
#11 - Louisville (9-2) (lost to Houston 36-10)
The most interesting game for week 13 by far will be Michigan at Ohio State. Those two don't like each other normally but meeting head to head at 10-1 with a spot in the playoffs potentially on the line should make things extra interesting.
It's set for noon on Saturday.
Elsewhere Washington will be at Washington State, Wisconsin hosts an 8-3 Minnesota and Alabama will host Auburn.
Monday, November 21, 2016
College Football Poll 2016
Moving on to more entertaining topics, the College Football playoff polling has begun. In fact it began two weeks ago so I'll have to catch up.
As of week 9 we had:
#1 - Alabama (8-0)
#2 - Clemson (8-0)
#3 - Michigan (8-0)
#4 - Texas A&M (7-1)
#5 - Washington (8-0)
#6 - Ohio State (7-1)
#7 - Louisville (7-1)
#8 - Wisconsin (6-2)
#9 - Auburn (6-2)
#10 - Nebraska (7-1)
The big question would be why Texas A&M would be ahead of Washington.
As of week 10 we had:
#1 - Alabama (9-0) (beat LSU 10-0)
#2 - Clemson (9-0) (beat Syracuse 54-0)
#3 - Michigan (9-0) (beat Maryland 59-3)
#4 - Washington (9-0) (beat California 66-27)
#5 - Ohio State (8-1) (beat Nebraska 62-3)
#6 - Louisville (8-1) (beat Boston College 52-7)
#7 - Wisconsin (7-2) (beat Northwestern 21-7)
#8 - Texas A&M (7-2) (lost to Mississippi State 35-28)
#9 - Auburn (7-2) (beat Vanderbilt 23-16)
#10 - Penn State (7-2) (beat Iowa 41-14)
Dropping out of the ton ten:
#19 - Nebraska (7-2) (lost to Ohio State 62-3)
As of week 11 we have:
#1 - Alabama (10-0) (beat Mississippi State 51-3)
#2 - Ohio State (9-1) (beat Maryland 62-3)
#3 - Michigan (9-1) (lost to Iowa 14-13)
#4 - Clemson (9-1) (lost to Pittsburgh Syracuse 43-42)
#5 - Louisville (9-1) (beat Wake Forest 44-12)
#6 - Washington (9-1) (lost to USC 26-13)
#7 - Wisconsin (8-2) (beat Illinois 48-3)
#8 - Penn State (8-2) (beat Indiana 45-31)
#9 - Oklahoma (8-2) (beat Baylor 45-24)
#10 - Colorado (8-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)
Dropping out of the ton ten:
#15 - Auburn (7-3) (lost to Georgia 13-7)
#25 - Texas A&M (7-3) (lost to Oklahoma State 45-44)
I find it interesting that Michigan lost to Iowa but held its place and Clemson lost to Pittsburgh but only dropped from #2 to #4 but Washington lost two spots to #6 losing to USC despite USC having a better record (7-3) than either Iowa or Pittsburgh (both 6-4).
I suppose the PAC-12 just don't get no respect when compared to the ACC or Big 10.
As of week 9 we had:
#1 - Alabama (8-0)
#2 - Clemson (8-0)
#3 - Michigan (8-0)
#4 - Texas A&M (7-1)
#5 - Washington (8-0)
#6 - Ohio State (7-1)
#7 - Louisville (7-1)
#8 - Wisconsin (6-2)
#9 - Auburn (6-2)
#10 - Nebraska (7-1)
The big question would be why Texas A&M would be ahead of Washington.
As of week 10 we had:
#1 - Alabama (9-0) (beat LSU 10-0)
#2 - Clemson (9-0) (beat Syracuse 54-0)
#3 - Michigan (9-0) (beat Maryland 59-3)
#4 - Washington (9-0) (beat California 66-27)
#5 - Ohio State (8-1) (beat Nebraska 62-3)
#6 - Louisville (8-1) (beat Boston College 52-7)
#7 - Wisconsin (7-2) (beat Northwestern 21-7)
#8 - Texas A&M (7-2) (lost to Mississippi State 35-28)
#9 - Auburn (7-2) (beat Vanderbilt 23-16)
#10 - Penn State (7-2) (beat Iowa 41-14)
Dropping out of the ton ten:
#19 - Nebraska (7-2) (lost to Ohio State 62-3)
As of week 11 we have:
#1 - Alabama (10-0) (beat Mississippi State 51-3)
#2 - Ohio State (9-1) (beat Maryland 62-3)
#3 - Michigan (9-1) (lost to Iowa 14-13)
#4 - Clemson (9-1) (lost to Pittsburgh Syracuse 43-42)
#5 - Louisville (9-1) (beat Wake Forest 44-12)
#6 - Washington (9-1) (lost to USC 26-13)
#7 - Wisconsin (8-2) (beat Illinois 48-3)
#8 - Penn State (8-2) (beat Indiana 45-31)
#9 - Oklahoma (8-2) (beat Baylor 45-24)
#10 - Colorado (8-2) (beat Arizona 49-24)
Dropping out of the ton ten:
#15 - Auburn (7-3) (lost to Georgia 13-7)
#25 - Texas A&M (7-3) (lost to Oklahoma State 45-44)
I find it interesting that Michigan lost to Iowa but held its place and Clemson lost to Pittsburgh but only dropped from #2 to #4 but Washington lost two spots to #6 losing to USC despite USC having a better record (7-3) than either Iowa or Pittsburgh (both 6-4).
I suppose the PAC-12 just don't get no respect when compared to the ACC or Big 10.
Twelve Days Later
OK, so twelve days have passed since the election and I'm sort of standing and leaning against a convenient wall watching the shrapnel fly around.
Luckily just about all of it is imaginary.
Yes there have been a number of "racist" incidents most of which have been perpetrated by younger folks. Despite all of the wringing of hands and moaning and groaning I'm not all that concerned. It will taper off and at least we're finding out who the racist assholes are.
On the other hand, the people the Trump is appointing to the government might well turn out to be the least qualified group of clowns ever appointed to high government office.
Luckily the bureaucracy will probably just chug along in spite of them and at some point even Trump is going to figure out how incompetent they are and clean house.
My one enormous disappointment is that even though he won the stupid son of a bitch is still whining. All I hear is "whine, whine, whine."
Mike Pence went to see Hamilton, got roundly booed by the audience and then was treated to what amounted to a we sincerely hope you and Trump aren't as big assholes as you sound message from the cast.
Trump demanded an apology and of course every one laughed at him. He needs to get used to (1) being criticized. (2) being insulted and (3) being ignored.
You see, he's used to being a boss where none of those three things could happen without dire consequences to the fool that engaged in them. But a leader has to learn how to handle those things and, if possible, eliminate the basis for that sort of resistance.
That's the difference between a leader and a boss.
I would not follow Trump into combat because he's not a leader.
Luckily just about all of it is imaginary.
Yes there have been a number of "racist" incidents most of which have been perpetrated by younger folks. Despite all of the wringing of hands and moaning and groaning I'm not all that concerned. It will taper off and at least we're finding out who the racist assholes are.
On the other hand, the people the Trump is appointing to the government might well turn out to be the least qualified group of clowns ever appointed to high government office.
Luckily the bureaucracy will probably just chug along in spite of them and at some point even Trump is going to figure out how incompetent they are and clean house.
My one enormous disappointment is that even though he won the stupid son of a bitch is still whining. All I hear is "whine, whine, whine."
Mike Pence went to see Hamilton, got roundly booed by the audience and then was treated to what amounted to a we sincerely hope you and Trump aren't as big assholes as you sound message from the cast.
Trump demanded an apology and of course every one laughed at him. He needs to get used to (1) being criticized. (2) being insulted and (3) being ignored.
You see, he's used to being a boss where none of those three things could happen without dire consequences to the fool that engaged in them. But a leader has to learn how to handle those things and, if possible, eliminate the basis for that sort of resistance.
That's the difference between a leader and a boss.
I would not follow Trump into combat because he's not a leader.
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
May you live in Interesting Times.
That's an old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times."
Well, after last night things are certainly going to get interesting. With Trump in the White House and the Republicans in control of Congress what can we expect?
Certainly a rollback of Obama's immigration executive orders.
Very probably a flat out repeal of Obamacare.
Very probably a move toward tax reform. Exactly what shape that might take is not all that clear. I suspect Congressional Republicans and Trump have different ideas.
Very probably bad news on the Supreme Court. This will most likely be his one payback to the religious right for their votes.
Beyond that, who knows? And this is the big problem, He's far too erratic and unpredictable. It's only a matter of time before he runs into some sort of roadblock, either domestic or foreign. Does he try to work around it or steamroll over it?
Well, we're stuck with it, For better or worse.
On the bright side, the market didn't tank like it did after Brexit. It's actually up about 200 points, and at least it's over. We won't have to listen to Trump whine.
To add insult to injury Josh Gottheimer beat Scott Garrett in my home district. I now have a democratic congressman for all the good it will do me.
Well, after last night things are certainly going to get interesting. With Trump in the White House and the Republicans in control of Congress what can we expect?
Certainly a rollback of Obama's immigration executive orders.
Very probably a flat out repeal of Obamacare.
Very probably a move toward tax reform. Exactly what shape that might take is not all that clear. I suspect Congressional Republicans and Trump have different ideas.
Very probably bad news on the Supreme Court. This will most likely be his one payback to the religious right for their votes.
Beyond that, who knows? And this is the big problem, He's far too erratic and unpredictable. It's only a matter of time before he runs into some sort of roadblock, either domestic or foreign. Does he try to work around it or steamroll over it?
Well, we're stuck with it, For better or worse.
On the bright side, the market didn't tank like it did after Brexit. It's actually up about 200 points, and at least it's over. We won't have to listen to Trump whine.
To add insult to injury Josh Gottheimer beat Scott Garrett in my home district. I now have a democratic congressman for all the good it will do me.
Election Night
Well, here we go.
7:30 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3
Trump takes Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky.
Clinton takes Vermont.
Trump leads in New Hampshire, Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in Florida.
If Trump manages to take Virginia, that's probably the ball game.
8:00 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3
Trump takes no states the last half hour.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.
Virginia always like to give me a hard time. The gap in Florida has been closing and I wouldn't get too excited about Ohio.
8:30 EST
Trump - 60
Clinton - 44
Trump takes Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina.
Clinton takes Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland. Delaware and DC.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Rhode Island, Maine and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio.
Trump is pulling away in Florida and gaining in Ohio and North Carolina. His lead in Virginia is holding steady.
9:00 EST
Trump - 66
Clinton - 48
Trump takes Mississippi
Clinton takes Rhode Island.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, North Dakota. Ohio and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina and Illinois.
This election might make a lot of people look silly and send them back to reconsider their election models. Trump looks like he's headed for a big night.
9:30 EST
Trump - 129
Clinton - 104
Trump takes Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Arkansas and Wyoming.
Clinton takes Illinois, Connecticut and New York.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Colorado.
Oh this does not look good. Virginia may turn out to be the critical state. Of course with Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota all in the wrong column at the moment, maybe not. Trump has also just taken the lead in New Hampshire.
10:00 EST
Trump - 137
Clinton - 104
Trump takes Louisiana.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.
Trump leads in Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota and Colorado.
Clinton is now losing in all three of the four toss-up states. The other, Nevada, still has the polls open. She's also losing in three states she was supposed to win. Where's that light switch I think the party is winding down.
Oh wow, Virginia just flipped. Still things are very ugly in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Michigan. They're not so good in Wisconsin either.
10:30 EST
Trump - 150
Clinton - 109
Trump takes Montana and Missouri,
Clinton takes New Mexico.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa and Colorado.
Well, things look quite ugly. Of course a lot depends upon what precincts have reported but the hole is getting pretty deep. The popular vote at the moment has Trump at 48,94% and Clinton at 47.01% so it looks like we'll have a minority president and very possibly a president that loses the popular vote.
This is pretty screwed up.
I'm not sure why they haven't called Ohio or Florida yet. I don't see any way for Clinton to come back in either state.
11:00 EST
Trump - 197
Clinton - 131
Trump takes Ohio and Florida.
Clinton takes Virginia and Colorado.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Iowa.
As far as I can see the road to 270 electoral votes has just about closed completely for Clinton. Here comes President Trump unless Michigan and Wisconsin recover and she somehow pulls out Nevada because it looks to me like Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire are gone.
Hmm, looks like Trump is gaining ground in the popular vote. He now leads 49.14% to 46.62%. But of course California is still to come.
7:30 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3
Trump takes Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky.
Clinton takes Vermont.
Trump leads in New Hampshire, Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in Florida.
If Trump manages to take Virginia, that's probably the ball game.
8:00 EST
Trump - 24
Clinton - 3
Trump takes no states the last half hour.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.
Virginia always like to give me a hard time. The gap in Florida has been closing and I wouldn't get too excited about Ohio.
8:30 EST
Trump - 60
Clinton - 44
Trump takes Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and South Carolina.
Clinton takes Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland. Delaware and DC.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Rhode Island, Maine and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina, Illinois and Ohio.
Trump is pulling away in Florida and gaining in Ohio and North Carolina. His lead in Virginia is holding steady.
9:00 EST
Trump - 66
Clinton - 48
Trump takes Mississippi
Clinton takes Rhode Island.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, North Dakota. Ohio and Texas.
Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, North Carolina and Illinois.
This election might make a lot of people look silly and send them back to reconsider their election models. Trump looks like he's headed for a big night.
9:30 EST
Trump - 129
Clinton - 104
Trump takes Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Arkansas and Wyoming.
Clinton takes Illinois, Connecticut and New York.
Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Colorado.
Oh this does not look good. Virginia may turn out to be the critical state. Of course with Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota all in the wrong column at the moment, maybe not. Trump has also just taken the lead in New Hampshire.
10:00 EST
Trump - 137
Clinton - 104
Trump takes Louisiana.
Clinton takes no states the last half hour.
Trump leads in Georgia, Florida, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota and Colorado.
Clinton is now losing in all three of the four toss-up states. The other, Nevada, still has the polls open. She's also losing in three states she was supposed to win. Where's that light switch I think the party is winding down.
Oh wow, Virginia just flipped. Still things are very ugly in New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Michigan. They're not so good in Wisconsin either.
10:30 EST
Trump - 150
Clinton - 109
Trump takes Montana and Missouri,
Clinton takes New Mexico.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Clinton leads in Virginia, Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Iowa and Colorado.
Well, things look quite ugly. Of course a lot depends upon what precincts have reported but the hole is getting pretty deep. The popular vote at the moment has Trump at 48,94% and Clinton at 47.01% so it looks like we'll have a minority president and very possibly a president that loses the popular vote.
This is pretty screwed up.
I'm not sure why they haven't called Ohio or Florida yet. I don't see any way for Clinton to come back in either state.
11:00 EST
Trump - 197
Clinton - 131
Trump takes Ohio and Florida.
Clinton takes Virginia and Colorado.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Iowa.
As far as I can see the road to 270 electoral votes has just about closed completely for Clinton. Here comes President Trump unless Michigan and Wisconsin recover and she somehow pulls out Nevada because it looks to me like Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire are gone.
Hmm, looks like Trump is gaining ground in the popular vote. He now leads 49.14% to 46.62%. But of course California is still to come.
11:30 EST
Trump - 216
Clinton - 197
Trump takes Idaho and North Carolina.
Clinton takes California, Oregon and Hawaii.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Hampshire and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
This one looks like it's going to take a while to get the final numbers but to be honest it looks all over but the search for the guilty and the punishment of the innocent. As incredible as it sounds, it looks as if we've just elected Donald Trump president.
Or have we? The situation is like this: Washington, Wisconsin and Michigan have all got to recover and Nevada, Pennsylvania. Minnesota and Maine all have to hold and we'll probably have a Constitutional crisis on our hands. If any of those seven things don't happen, Donald Trump will be the next president.
12:00 EST
Trump - 238
Clinton - 209
Trump takes Georgia and Utah.
Clinton takes Washington.
Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
OK, Washington appears to have come home. One down and six to go.
I don't see much movement in either Michigan or Wisconsin. Trump's lead seems to be holding steady. If he wins either state everything else is sort of moot.
Wisconsin looks like it's just about gone. Pennsylvania is actually closer than Wisconsin right now.
In the meantime the popular vote is now 48.47% to 47%.
Over in the Senate the Republicans are ahead 49-46. This is shaping up to be the Republicans control everything. There goes the Supreme Court, any progress on climate change and Obamacare. Gee, I hope Social Security and Medicare survive.
I suspect the issue here was the large number of undecided voters. Clearly they decided to give Trump and the Republicans control. I'm embarrassed for the country. Let's at least hope we can avoid a nuclear war or a financial meltdown.
Trump is actually pulling away in Wisconsin and holding his lead in Michigan. He looks to be headed to at least 287 votes and perhaps more depending upon how Maine splits up and whether Pennsylvania, which is much closer than either Michigan or Wisconsin right now, flips into his column. He could have as many as 311 electoral votes.
12:30 EST
Trump - 244
Clinton - 209
Trump takes Iowa.
Clinton takes
Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
The question for me is when do I pack it in?
OK, Pennsylvania just flipped to red. I think I'm going to concede and go get some sleep. It's going to be President Trump.
Trump - 216
Clinton - 197
Trump takes Idaho and North Carolina.
Clinton takes California, Oregon and Hawaii.
Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Hampshire and Utah.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
This one looks like it's going to take a while to get the final numbers but to be honest it looks all over but the search for the guilty and the punishment of the innocent. As incredible as it sounds, it looks as if we've just elected Donald Trump president.
Or have we? The situation is like this: Washington, Wisconsin and Michigan have all got to recover and Nevada, Pennsylvania. Minnesota and Maine all have to hold and we'll probably have a Constitutional crisis on our hands. If any of those seven things don't happen, Donald Trump will be the next president.
12:00 EST
Trump - 238
Clinton - 209
Trump takes Georgia and Utah.
Clinton takes Washington.
Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
OK, Washington appears to have come home. One down and six to go.
I don't see much movement in either Michigan or Wisconsin. Trump's lead seems to be holding steady. If he wins either state everything else is sort of moot.
Wisconsin looks like it's just about gone. Pennsylvania is actually closer than Wisconsin right now.
In the meantime the popular vote is now 48.47% to 47%.
Over in the Senate the Republicans are ahead 49-46. This is shaping up to be the Republicans control everything. There goes the Supreme Court, any progress on climate change and Obamacare. Gee, I hope Social Security and Medicare survive.
I suspect the issue here was the large number of undecided voters. Clearly they decided to give Trump and the Republicans control. I'm embarrassed for the country. Let's at least hope we can avoid a nuclear war or a financial meltdown.
Trump is actually pulling away in Wisconsin and holding his lead in Michigan. He looks to be headed to at least 287 votes and perhaps more depending upon how Maine splits up and whether Pennsylvania, which is much closer than either Michigan or Wisconsin right now, flips into his column. He could have as many as 311 electoral votes.
12:30 EST
Trump - 244
Clinton - 209
Trump takes Iowa.
Clinton takes
Trump leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Clinton leads in Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Minnesota.
The question for me is when do I pack it in?
OK, Pennsylvania just flipped to red. I think I'm going to concede and go get some sleep. It's going to be President Trump.
Tuesday, November 08, 2016
Thoughts before the Plunge
It's pushing 6 PM. My wife and I voted this morning about 9 AM. She was voter #80; I was voter #81. My oldest daughter went before she went to work right as the polls opened. She was voter #1.
Assuming no surprises, and Pennsylvania and Michigan could turn into unpleasant surprises for Hillary Clinton, the election will come down to New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada.
New Hampshire's and Florida's polls will close at 7 PM. North Carolina will follow at 7:30 PM. Pennsylvania's will close at 8 PM; Michigan closes at 8 PM as well. Nevada's won't close until 10 PM EST.
I expect this to be a long night. I don't expect any of these states to be called quickly. It's quite likely that Ohio will take a while as well.
I just want it all to end tonight one way or the other.
Elections used to be fun. This election has not been fun.
Assuming no surprises, and Pennsylvania and Michigan could turn into unpleasant surprises for Hillary Clinton, the election will come down to New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada.
New Hampshire's and Florida's polls will close at 7 PM. North Carolina will follow at 7:30 PM. Pennsylvania's will close at 8 PM; Michigan closes at 8 PM as well. Nevada's won't close until 10 PM EST.
I expect this to be a long night. I don't expect any of these states to be called quickly. It's quite likely that Ohio will take a while as well.
I just want it all to end tonight one way or the other.
Elections used to be fun. This election has not been fun.
Monday, November 07, 2016
Election 2016 IX Part B
For everyone laughing at my 270-268 Trump electoral victory I might point out that Real Clear Politics has it 272-266 Clinton.
The difference is I don't feel comfortable with New Hampshire and that's where my 270-268 number comes from.
What are the key states from the four tracking states I'm following or at least the states where there are potential disagreements. There appear to be four main ones.
New Hampshire
Real Clear Politics - Clinton
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton
Nevada
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Trump
North Carolina
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Clinton
Florida
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton
There seems to be agreement on all of the other states although some are marked as very close. New Hampshire, although it's now unanimous, has just today slipped back into the Clinton fold which is why I'm uncomfortable with it. Note that any or all of these states could be so close as to make us go long past election day.
The difference is I don't feel comfortable with New Hampshire and that's where my 270-268 number comes from.
What are the key states from the four tracking states I'm following or at least the states where there are potential disagreements. There appear to be four main ones.
New Hampshire
Real Clear Politics - Clinton
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton
Nevada
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Trump
North Carolina
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Trump
Electoral Vote - Clinton
Florida
Real Clear Politics - Trump
Five Thirty Eight - Clinton
Election Projection - Clinton
Electoral Vote - Clinton
There seems to be agreement on all of the other states although some are marked as very close. New Hampshire, although it's now unanimous, has just today slipped back into the Clinton fold which is why I'm uncomfortable with it. Note that any or all of these states could be so close as to make us go long past election day.
Election 2016 IX
Well, here we are on the eve of the election. I've been silent for two weeks primarily because I have been skeptical about just about everything and more than a little disgusted with both campaigns and both candidates.
I almost broke my silence when the FBI released its letter about another 1,000 Clinton emails but decided if I didn't have anything good to say, and I didn't think I could avoid cursing at Clinton, I should wait.
As it turned out, as suspected, it was much ado about nothing except probably for the facts that it helped Trump particularly in battlegrpound states and that Comey may have violated the Hatch act.
The Hatch Act which prohibits federal employees, except for the President, Vice President and other exempt employees, from participating in political campaigns or political acts.
Did Comey in fact violate the Hatch Act? I say suspend the bastard and let a board of inquiry decide. If the board decides he did, then he should be removed from office. Shooting him might be a bit extreme but I'd consider it.
The ultimate result is Comey's disregard for ethics has probably impacted elections because early voting occurring while the email cloud existed and could affect not only the presidential race but senate and congressional races.
Comey really should be rendered persona-non-grata regardless of who wins but you can be sure he won't be if the Republicans are elected.
So where are we?
The Republicans will hold onto the house thanks to their gerrymandering skill. Personally I'm guessing Republican Scott Garrett will hold onto his seat in my district. Both he and Democratic challenger Josh Gottheimer have run dirty as hell campaigns. In my opinion neither of them should win.
The Senate is a toss-up. Different sites are all over the map. It looks like at best a 51-49 situation for one party or the other. If the Republicans hold the senate and Clinton wins, she might as well go on vacation for four years because she isn't going to manage to accomplish anything. The Republicans are even saying they won't consider any Clinton Supreme Court nominees.
As for the presidency, I don't like the numbers I see. I think Trump has the inside track and based upon my most recent analysis he wins by a ridiculously close 270-268.
Every other analysis I've seen seems to disagree with me so here's hoping they're right and I'm wrong. But I have this really bad feeling that I'm not wrong.
Hopefully tomorrow will tell because the worst possible result would be an inconclusive election like the 2000 fiasco. Given how close I think it's going to be, that's not out of the question.
Also not out of the question would be Clinton winning the popular vote while Trump wins the electoral vote. I think the opposite is less likely.
"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;...In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility: But when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger;..."
I almost broke my silence when the FBI released its letter about another 1,000 Clinton emails but decided if I didn't have anything good to say, and I didn't think I could avoid cursing at Clinton, I should wait.
As it turned out, as suspected, it was much ado about nothing except probably for the facts that it helped Trump particularly in battlegrpound states and that Comey may have violated the Hatch act.
The Hatch Act which prohibits federal employees, except for the President, Vice President and other exempt employees, from participating in political campaigns or political acts.
Did Comey in fact violate the Hatch Act? I say suspend the bastard and let a board of inquiry decide. If the board decides he did, then he should be removed from office. Shooting him might be a bit extreme but I'd consider it.
The ultimate result is Comey's disregard for ethics has probably impacted elections because early voting occurring while the email cloud existed and could affect not only the presidential race but senate and congressional races.
Comey really should be rendered persona-non-grata regardless of who wins but you can be sure he won't be if the Republicans are elected.
So where are we?
The Republicans will hold onto the house thanks to their gerrymandering skill. Personally I'm guessing Republican Scott Garrett will hold onto his seat in my district. Both he and Democratic challenger Josh Gottheimer have run dirty as hell campaigns. In my opinion neither of them should win.
The Senate is a toss-up. Different sites are all over the map. It looks like at best a 51-49 situation for one party or the other. If the Republicans hold the senate and Clinton wins, she might as well go on vacation for four years because she isn't going to manage to accomplish anything. The Republicans are even saying they won't consider any Clinton Supreme Court nominees.
As for the presidency, I don't like the numbers I see. I think Trump has the inside track and based upon my most recent analysis he wins by a ridiculously close 270-268.
Every other analysis I've seen seems to disagree with me so here's hoping they're right and I'm wrong. But I have this really bad feeling that I'm not wrong.
Hopefully tomorrow will tell because the worst possible result would be an inconclusive election like the 2000 fiasco. Given how close I think it's going to be, that's not out of the question.
Also not out of the question would be Clinton winning the popular vote while Trump wins the electoral vote. I think the opposite is less likely.
"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;...In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility: But when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger;..."
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