Election Day is tomorrow and there are four elections of note in this off year. New Jersey Governor, Virginia Governor, New York City Mayor and Virginia Attorney General. Then there is Proposition 50 in Califorinia.
New Jersey Governor
Pits Mikie Sherrill (D) against Jack Ciattarelli (R). This is closer than it should be because Sherrill is something of a ditz. Honestly, I like what I'm hearing from Ciattarelli but I don't believe him. The RCP average has Sherill up by 3.3 points. Polymarket has Sherrill 86%-15%.
Virginia Governor
Abigail Spanberger (D) against Winsome Earle-Sears (R). Earle-Sears strikes me as completely looney toons. I don't understand how anyone could vote for her. The RCP average has Spanberger up by 8.9 points. Polymarket has Spanberger 98%-2%.
New York City Mayor
This has self proclaimed Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani (D), against Andrew Cuomo (I) and Curtis Sliwa (R). I don't like Mamdani for lots of reasons, not the least of which is I don't think that he has a good grasp of economic realities. He strikes me as another guy that promises more than he can deliver. The RCP average has Mamdani up by 14.7 points over Cuomo and 28.5 points over Sliwa. Polymarket has Mamdani 91% and Cuomo 9%. Sliwa apparently doesn't even register.
Virginia Attorney General
Pits Jay Jones (D) against Jason Miyares (R). I don't know much about this race but apparently Jones was ahead but then some highly questionable texts came out and the race shifted in Miyares' favor. At the moment the RCP avergae has Miyares by 1.6 points. Polymarket has Miyares 52%-47%.
California
Proposition 50 would allow a partisan redrawing of California's congressional districts giving Democrats a response to the Republican redistricting in Texas. The latest polling has Prop 50 passing with 57% of the vote. Polymarket has it at 98% to pass.
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