The Five Laws of Stupidity

 As defined by Carlo Cipolla and probably influenced by Dietrich Bonhoeffer.

1. Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.

2. The probability that a certain person is stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.

3. A stupid person is one who causes losses to another person or a group of people while they gain nothing or may even suffer losses.

4. Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular, non-stupid people constantly forget that in any time and place and circumstance dealing and/or hanging out with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake.

5. Stupid people are the most dangerous type of people.

The most interesting law is number 3 because it leads to four categories of people depending upon how they affect themselves and others.

Intelligent People - Generate gains for themselves and gains for others.

Bandits - Generate gains for themselves and losses for others.

Helpless People - Generate losses for themselves and gains for others.

Stupid People - Generate losses for themselves and losses for others.

Bonhoeffer made the point that stupidity is far more dangerous than malice.

I'm not really that sure about #2. While it's true that anyone can be stupid based upon this definition some characteristics may mitigate the possibility.

The Corona Virus, October 26, 2021

There are currently 46,330,302 reported cases in the US and 751,228 deaths.

US Cases

Dec  28-Jan 3 -- 1,484,497,  7.7%

Jan   4 -Jan 10-- 1,766,398   8.5%

Jan 11 -Jan 17-- 1,559,170    6.9%

Jan 18 -Jan 24-- 1,206,819   5.0%

Jan 25 -Jan 31-- 1,049,667   4.1%

Feb  1 -  Feb  7--    855,743   3.2%

Feb  8 - Feb 14--   645,973   2.4%

Feb 15 - Feb 21--  476,821   1.7%

Feb 22 - Feb 28-- 487,627   1.7%

Mar 1 ---Mar 7  -- 414,986   1.4%

Mar 8 --Mar 14 -- 371,939   1.3%

Mar 15--Mar 21 -- 385,590  1.3%

Mar 22-Mar 28-- 429,180  1.4%

Mar 29-April 4-- 439,617   1.4%

April 5-April 11-- 480,732  1.6

April 12-April 18-500,013  1.6%

April 19-April 25-442,584  1.4%

April 26-May 2-   338,093  1.0%

May 3  --May 9-   280,293  0.9%

May 10--May 16-  227,441   0.7%

May 17--May 23-  175,653   0.5%

May 24--May 30- 138,104   0.4%

June 1 --June 6--   99,209

June 7 -June 13--  86,318

June 14-June 20-- 65,265

June 21-June 27--64,745

June 28-July 4----82,898

July 5---July 11---100,556

July 12--July 18 --145,510

July 19--Jul 25  ---235,732

July 26--Aug 1  ---404,539

Aug 2---Aug 8  ---635,340

Aug 9---Aug 15  --912,812

Aug 16--Aug 22-1,049.409

Aug 23--Aug 29-1,094,413

Aug 30--Sep 5---1,130,566

Sep 6--Sep 12----1,031,425

Sep 13--Sep 19---1,025,166

Sep 20--Sep 26--- 848,948

Sep 27--Oct 3----- 749,121

Oct 4---Oct 10---- 676,271

Oct 11--Oct 17---- 591,287

Oct 18--Oct 24--- 508,595

The number of cases is down again. Booster shots for Moderna for those 65 and older or immuno-compromised have been approved. Anyone who got the J&J can get a booster of any type so mix and match was approved as least for J&J.

'New Jersey Cases

Dec  28 -Jan 3 ----30,821   6.7%,   9.9%

Jan    4 -Jan 10 --- 36,012   7.3%, 10.1%

Jan   11 -Jan 17 --- 37,043   7.0%,  8.3%

Jan   18 -Jan 24 -- 29,905   5.3%,  8.7%

Jan   25 -Jan 31 -- 28,539   4.8%,  7.4%

Feb  1 -  Feb  7---   21,470   3.4%,   8.1%

Feb  8 -  Feb 14--- 20,186   3.1%,   6.4%

Feb 15 -  Feb 21--- 17,549   2.6%,   6.2%

Feb 22 - Feb 28--  18,979   2.8%,   6.2%

Mar 1 ---Mar 7  --  19,214   2.7%,    5.3%

Mar 8 --Mar 14  -- 21,112   2.9%,    9.5%

Mar 15--Mar 21  -- 22,939 3.1%,    5.4%

Mar 22-Mar 28  -- 24,483 3.2%,    6.7%

Mar 29-April 4  -- 25,535  3.2%,    7.8%

April 5-April 11  -- 22,045 2.7%,    6.7%

April 12-April 18--21,467  2.6%,    6.6%

April 19-April 25--16,367  1.9%,    5.0%

April 26-May 2--- 10,824  1.2%,    3.8%

May 3--May 10---   5,283  0.6%,    2.0%

May 10-May 16---  2,413   0.3%     1.3%

May 17-May 23---  2,934  0.3%     1.1%

May 24-May 30--  1,620   0.2%     ??%

June 1 --June 6--- 1,400 

June 7 -June 13--  1,177

June 14-June 21-- 1,253

June 22-June 27--1,254

June 28-July 4----1,172

July 5---July 11--- 1,546

July 12--July 18--  2,598

July 19--Jul 25  --- 4.354

July 26--Aug 1  ---  5,832

Aug 2---Aug 8  ---  8,344

Aug 9---Aug 15  --  9,932

Aug 16--Aug 22---10,779

Aug 23--Aug 29---11,691

Aug 30--Sep 5-----11,526

Sep 6---Sep 12---- 12,345

Sep 13--Sep 19---  12,870

Sep 20--Sep 26--- 11,755

Sep 27--Oct 3----- 10,599

Oct 4---Oct 10----  9.884

Oct 11--Oct 17----   8,754

Oct 18--Oct 24---   7,914

New Jersey was down about 10%. Apparently now there's a rush for boosters after the last round of approvals.

Bergen County Cases

Dec  28 -Jan 3--- 2,717,  6.0% Dashboard New Cases = 2,715

Jan    4 -Jan 10---3,110,  6.4% Dashboard New Cases = 3,126

Jan   11 -Jan 17---3,266,  6.4% Dashboard New Cases = 3,413

Jan   18-Jan 24---2,858,  5.2% Dashboard New Cases =2,999

Jan   25-Jan 31---2,716,  4.7% Dashboard New Cases = 2,876

Feb  1 -  Feb  7--- 2,328,  3.9% Dashboard New Cases = 2,490

Feb  8 - Feb 14---2,085,  3.3% Dashboard New Cases = 2,185

Feb 15 - Feb 21-- 1,934,  3.0% Dashboard New Cases = 1,982

Feb 23 - Feb 22--2,244,  3.4% Dashboard New Cases = 2,335

Mar 1 ---Mar 7 --2,305,  3.3% Dashboard New Cases = 2,341

Mar 8 --Mar 14--2,399,  3.4% Dashboard New Cases = 2,434

Mar 15--Mar 21--2,664,  3.6% Dashboard New Cases = 2,690

Mar 22-Mar 28--2,770,  3.6% Dashboard New Cases = 2,856

Mar 29-April 4-- 2,806,  3.6% Dashboard New Cases =2,930

April 5-April 11-- 2,273,  2.8% Dashboard New Cases =2,474

April 12-April 18-1,902,  2.3% Dashboard New Cases =2,009

April 19-April 25-1,446,  1.9% Dashboard New Cases =1,503

April 26-May 2 --   802,  0.9% Dashboard New Cases =1,001

May 3---May 10 -- 693,  0.8% Dashboard New Cases = 809

May 10--May 16 -- 348,  0.4% Dashboard New Cases = 468

May 17--May 23 -- 246,  0.3% Dashboard New Cases = 329

May 24-May 30 -- 173,   0.2% Dashboard New Cases = 204

June 1 --June 6--   104

June 7 -June 13--   116

June 14-June 21--  123

June 22-June 27-- 147

June 28-July 4---- 152

July 5---July 11---  146

July 12--July 18  --267

July 19--Jul 25  --- 440

July 26--Aug 1  ---  619

Aug 2---Aug 8  ---  815

Aug 9---Aug 15  --  972

Aug 16--Aug 22--1,040

Aug 23--Aug 29--1,058

Aug 30--Sep 5----- 948

Sep 6--Sep 12---- 1.033

Sep 13--Sep 19---1,055

Sep 20--Sep 26--1,041

Sep 27--Oct 3----   929

Oct 4---Oct 10---- 779

Oct 11--Oct 17----  695

Oct 18--Oct 24---  604

Bergen County continues to drift downward as well and was down about 13% but the first two days of this week are showing a slight upswing.

Nothing much doing on the home front. Number 3 daughter who got the J&J has schedule a Pfizer booster and a flu shot for Friday. I get to go to the pulmonologist November 1st. I never got a notice about a colonoscopy and it's been five years. Not that I'm in a hurry but I wonder if they're just behind or if I need to call them.

Governor Murphy may actually lose the election to a Trump Republican. The GOP has been playing the clip of Murphy saying if property taxes are your big issue then maybe New Jersey is the wrong state for you over and over again. Clearly that plus the Dems in Washington not being able to accomplish anything is hurting.

Skepticism

Someone claims that there is a glass of orange juice on a table behind a closed door.

The person making the claim complains that a skeptic will automatically reject the claim even though he has no justification for doing so.

My understanding is that skepticism is the rejection of a claim unless there is sufficient evidence to conclude that it is probably true. What constitutes sufficient evidence depends upon the claim. The degree of probability depends upon the strength of the evidence. 

As for the orange juice claim, one's word might be sufficient, assuming the individual making the claim is known to be a reasonably honest individual, because it's such a mundane claim. 

I know there are tables; I know there are glasses and I know there is orange juice so a glass of orange juice on a table behind a door that I can see is certainly reasonable assuming there isn't some reason to doubt the claim.

If the claim was that a pink unicorn was behind the door, since I'm not aware that pink unicorns exist, that would be a different kettle of fish. Now I would doubt the claim until I opened the door and checked.

The Corona Virus, October 19, 2021

There are currently 45,831,040 reported cases in the US and 739,960 deaths.

US Cases

Dec  28-Jan 3 -- 1,484,497,  7.7%

Jan   4 -Jan 10-- 1,766,398   8.5%

Jan 11 -Jan 17-- 1,559,170    6.9%

Jan 18 -Jan 24-- 1,206,819   5.0%

Jan 25 -Jan 31-- 1,049,667   4.1%

Feb  1 -  Feb  7--    855,743   3.2%

Feb  8 - Feb 14--   645,973   2.4%

Feb 15 - Feb 21--  476,821   1.7%

Feb 22 - Feb 28-- 487,627   1.7%

Mar 1 ---Mar 7  -- 414,986   1.4%

Mar 8 --Mar 14 -- 371,939   1.3%

Mar 15--Mar 21 -- 385,590  1.3%

Mar 22-Mar 28-- 429,180  1.4%

Mar 29-April 4-- 439,617   1.4%

April 5-April 11-- 480,732  1.6

April 12-April 18-500,013  1.6%

April 19-April 25-442,584  1.4%

April 26-May 2-   338,093  1.0%

May 3  --May 9-   280,293  0.9%

May 10--May 16-  227,441   0.7%

May 17--May 23-  175,653   0.5%

May 24--May 30- 138,104   0.4%

June 1 --June 6--   99,209

June 7 -June 13--  86,318

June 14-June 20-- 65,265

June 21-June 27--64,745

June 28-July 4----82,898

July 5---July 11---100,556

July 12--July 18 --145,510

July 19--Jul 25  ---235,732

July 26--Aug 1  ---404,539

Aug 2---Aug 8  ---635,340

Aug 9---Aug 15  --912,812

Aug 16--Aug 22-1,049.409

Aug 23--Aug 29-1,094,413

Aug 30--Sep 5---1,130,566

Sep 6--Sep 12----1,031,425

Sep 13--Sep 19---1,025,166

Sep 20--Sep 26--- 848,948

Sep 27--Oct 3----- 749,121

Oct 4---Oct 10---- 676,271

Oct 11--Oct 17---- 591,287

The number of cases is down again. The FDA is expected to approve boosters for J&J and Moderna. They're also expected to say that mixing shots is OK as well so those with J&J can get Pfizer for example.

'New Jersey Cases

Dec  28 -Jan 3 ----30,821   6.7%,   9.9%

Jan    4 -Jan 10 --- 36,012   7.3%, 10.1%

Jan   11 -Jan 17 --- 37,043   7.0%,  8.3%

Jan   18 -Jan 24 -- 29,905   5.3%,  8.7%

Jan   25 -Jan 31 -- 28,539   4.8%,  7.4%

Feb  1 -  Feb  7---   21,470   3.4%,   8.1%

Feb  8 -  Feb 14--- 20,186   3.1%,   6.4%

Feb 15 -  Feb 21--- 17,549   2.6%,   6.2%

Feb 22 - Feb 28--  18,979   2.8%,   6.2%

Mar 1 ---Mar 7  --  19,214   2.7%,    5.3%

Mar 8 --Mar 14  -- 21,112   2.9%,    9.5%

Mar 15--Mar 21  -- 22,939 3.1%,    5.4%

Mar 22-Mar 28  -- 24,483 3.2%,    6.7%

Mar 29-April 4  -- 25,535  3.2%,    7.8%

April 5-April 11  -- 22,045 2.7%,    6.7%

April 12-April 18--21,467  2.6%,    6.6%

April 19-April 25--16,367  1.9%,    5.0%

April 26-May 2--- 10,824  1.2%,    3.8%

May 3--May 10---   5,283  0.6%,    2.0%

May 10-May 16---  2,413   0.3%     1.3%

May 17-May 23---  2,934  0.3%     1.1%

May 24-May 30--  1,620   0.2%     ??%

June 1 --June 6--- 1,400 

June 7 -June 13--  1,177

June 14-June 21-- 1,253

June 22-June 27--1,254

June 28-July 4----1,172

July 5---July 11--- 1,546

July 12--July 18--  2,598

July 19--Jul 25  --- 4.354

July 26--Aug 1  ---  5,832

Aug 2---Aug 8  ---  8,344

Aug 9---Aug 15  --  9,932

Aug 16--Aug 22---10,779

Aug 23--Aug 29---11,691

Aug 30--Sep 5-----11,526

Sep 6---Sep 12---- 12,345

Sep 13--Sep 19---  12,870

Sep 20--Sep 26--- 11,755

Sep 27--Oct 3----- 10,599

Oct 4---Oct 10----  9.884

Oct 11--Oct 17----   8,754

New Jersey was down about 11%. The Record is reporting that almost 80% of those eligible for boosters have yet to get them and the state is urging people to get them before the holidays.

Bergen County Cases

Dec  28 -Jan 3--- 2,717,  6.0% Dashboard New Cases = 2,715

Jan    4 -Jan 10---3,110,  6.4% Dashboard New Cases = 3,126

Jan   11 -Jan 17---3,266,  6.4% Dashboard New Cases = 3,413

Jan   18-Jan 24---2,858,  5.2% Dashboard New Cases =2,999

Jan   25-Jan 31---2,716,  4.7% Dashboard New Cases = 2,876

Feb  1 -  Feb  7--- 2,328,  3.9% Dashboard New Cases = 2,490

Feb  8 - Feb 14---2,085,  3.3% Dashboard New Cases = 2,185

Feb 15 - Feb 21-- 1,934,  3.0% Dashboard New Cases = 1,982

Feb 23 - Feb 22--2,244,  3.4% Dashboard New Cases = 2,335

Mar 1 ---Mar 7 --2,305,  3.3% Dashboard New Cases = 2,341

Mar 8 --Mar 14--2,399,  3.4% Dashboard New Cases = 2,434

Mar 15--Mar 21--2,664,  3.6% Dashboard New Cases = 2,690

Mar 22-Mar 28--2,770,  3.6% Dashboard New Cases = 2,856

Mar 29-April 4-- 2,806,  3.6% Dashboard New Cases =2,930

April 5-April 11-- 2,273,  2.8% Dashboard New Cases =2,474

April 12-April 18-1,902,  2.3% Dashboard New Cases =2,009

April 19-April 25-1,446,  1.9% Dashboard New Cases =1,503

April 26-May 2 --   802,  0.9% Dashboard New Cases =1,001

May 3---May 10 -- 693,  0.8% Dashboard New Cases = 809

May 10--May 16 -- 348,  0.4% Dashboard New Cases = 468

May 17--May 23 -- 246,  0.3% Dashboard New Cases = 329

May 24-May 30 -- 173,   0.2% Dashboard New Cases = 204

June 1 --June 6--   104

June 7 -June 13--   116

June 14-June 21--  123

June 22-June 27-- 147

June 28-July 4---- 152

July 5---July 11---  146

July 12--July 18  --267

July 19--Jul 25  --- 440

July 26--Aug 1  ---  619

Aug 2---Aug 8  ---  815

Aug 9---Aug 15  --  972

Aug 16--Aug 22--1,040

Aug 23--Aug 29--1,058

Aug 30--Sep 5----- 948

Sep 6--Sep 12---- 1.033

Sep 13--Sep 19---1,055

Sep 20--Sep 26--1,041

Sep 27--Oct 3----   929

Oct 4---Oct 10---- 779

Oct 11--Oct 17----  695

Bergen County continues to drift downward as well and was down about 11%

I didn't get my permanent teeth. Apparently this was just a try-in to check the fit. They tell me it will be another 2-3 weeks. I ordered a home backup generator. There's a 2-4 month backlog on getting the unit. It takes like three sessions to complete the installation. This is long overdue.

The Corona Virus, October 12, 2021

There are currently 45,241,923 reported cases in the US and 728,618 deaths.

US Cases

Dec  28-Jan 3 -- 1,484,497,  7.7%

Jan   4 -Jan 10-- 1,766,398   8.5%

Jan 11 -Jan 17-- 1,559,170    6.9%

Jan 18 -Jan 24-- 1,206,819   5.0%

Jan 25 -Jan 31-- 1,049,667   4.1%

Feb  1 -  Feb  7--    855,743   3.2%

Feb  8 - Feb 14--   645,973   2.4%

Feb 15 - Feb 21--  476,821   1.7%

Feb 22 - Feb 28-- 487,627   1.7%

Mar 1 ---Mar 7  -- 414,986   1.4%

Mar 8 --Mar 14 -- 371,939   1.3%

Mar 15--Mar 21 -- 385,590  1.3%

Mar 22-Mar 28-- 429,180  1.4%

Mar 29-April 4-- 439,617   1.4%

April 5-April 11-- 480,732  1.6

April 12-April 18-500,013  1.6%

April 19-April 25-442,584  1.4%

April 26-May 2-   338,093  1.0%

May 3  --May 9-   280,293  0.9%

May 10--May 16-  227,441   0.7%

May 17--May 23-  175,653   0.5%

May 24--May 30- 138,104   0.4%

June 1 --June 6--   99,209

June 7 -June 13--  86,318

June 14-June 20-- 65,265

June 21-June 27--64,745

June 28-July 4----82,898

July 5---July 11---100,556

July 12--July 18 --145,510

July 19--Jul 25  ---235,732

July 26--Aug 1  ---404,539

Aug 2---Aug 8  ---635,340

Aug 9---Aug 15  --912,812

Aug 16--Aug 22-1,049.409

Aug 23--Aug 29-1,094,413

Aug 30--Sep 5---1,130,566

Sep 6--Sep 12----1,031,425

Sep 13--Sep 19---1,025,166

Sep 20--Sep 26--- 848,948

Sep 27--Oct 3----- 749,121

Oct 4---Oct 10---- 676.271

Another healthy drop. Pfizer has applied for emergency use authorization for children 5 and older. Apparently it will be a lower dosage for the kids.

'New Jersey Cases

Dec  28 -Jan 3 ----30,821   6.7%,   9.9%

Jan    4 -Jan 10 --- 36,012   7.3%, 10.1%

Jan   11 -Jan 17 --- 37,043   7.0%,  8.3%

Jan   18 -Jan 24 -- 29,905   5.3%,  8.7%

Jan   25 -Jan 31 -- 28,539   4.8%,  7.4%

Feb  1 -  Feb  7---   21,470   3.4%,   8.1%

Feb  8 -  Feb 14--- 20,186   3.1%,   6.4%

Feb 15 -  Feb 21--- 17,549   2.6%,   6.2%

Feb 22 - Feb 28--  18,979   2.8%,   6.2%

Mar 1 ---Mar 7  --  19,214   2.7%,    5.3%

Mar 8 --Mar 14  -- 21,112   2.9%,    9.5%

Mar 15--Mar 21  -- 22,939 3.1%,    5.4%

Mar 22-Mar 28  -- 24,483 3.2%,    6.7%

Mar 29-April 4  -- 25,535  3.2%,    7.8%

April 5-April 11  -- 22,045 2.7%,    6.7%

April 12-April 18--21,467  2.6%,    6.6%

April 19-April 25--16,367  1.9%,    5.0%

April 26-May 2--- 10,824  1.2%,    3.8%

May 3--May 10---   5,283  0.6%,    2.0%

May 10-May 16---  2,413   0.3%     1.3%

May 17-May 23---  2,934  0.3%     1.1%

May 24-May 30--  1,620   0.2%     ??%

June 1 --June 6--- 1,400 

June 7 -June 13--  1,177

June 14-June 21-- 1,253

June 22-June 27--1,254

June 28-July 4----1,172

July 5---July 11--- 1,546

July 12--July 18--  2,598

July 19--Jul 25  --- 4.354

July 26--Aug 1  ---  5,832

Aug 2---Aug 8  ---  8,344

Aug 9---Aug 15  --  9,932

Aug 16--Aug 22---10,779

Aug 23--Aug 29---11,691

Aug 30--Sep 5-----11,526

Sep 6---Sep 12---- 12,345

Sep 13--Sep 19---  12,870

Sep 20--Sep 26--- 11,755

Sep 27--Oct 3----- 10,599

Oct 4---Oct 10----  9.884

New Jersey was down about 7%.

Bergen County Cases

Dec  28 -Jan 3--- 2,717,  6.0% Dashboard New Cases = 2,715

Jan    4 -Jan 10---3,110,  6.4% Dashboard New Cases = 3,126

Jan   11 -Jan 17---3,266,  6.4% Dashboard New Cases = 3,413

Jan   18-Jan 24---2,858,  5.2% Dashboard New Cases =2,999

Jan   25-Jan 31---2,716,  4.7% Dashboard New Cases = 2,876

Feb  1 -  Feb  7--- 2,328,  3.9% Dashboard New Cases = 2,490

Feb  8 - Feb 14---2,085,  3.3% Dashboard New Cases = 2,185

Feb 15 - Feb 21-- 1,934,  3.0% Dashboard New Cases = 1,982

Feb 23 - Feb 22--2,244,  3.4% Dashboard New Cases = 2,335

Mar 1 ---Mar 7 --2,305,  3.3% Dashboard New Cases = 2,341

Mar 8 --Mar 14--2,399,  3.4% Dashboard New Cases = 2,434

Mar 15--Mar 21--2,664,  3.6% Dashboard New Cases = 2,690

Mar 22-Mar 28--2,770,  3.6% Dashboard New Cases = 2,856

Mar 29-April 4-- 2,806,  3.6% Dashboard New Cases =2,930

April 5-April 11-- 2,273,  2.8% Dashboard New Cases =2,474

April 12-April 18-1,902,  2.3% Dashboard New Cases =2,009

April 19-April 25-1,446,  1.9% Dashboard New Cases =1,503

April 26-May 2 --   802,  0.9% Dashboard New Cases =1,001

May 3---May 10 -- 693,  0.8% Dashboard New Cases = 809

May 10--May 16 -- 348,  0.4% Dashboard New Cases = 468

May 17--May 23 -- 246,  0.3% Dashboard New Cases = 329

May 24-May 30 -- 173,   0.2% Dashboard New Cases = 204

June 1 --June 6--   104

June 7 -June 13--   116

June 14-June 21--  123

June 22-June 27-- 147

June 28-July 4---- 152

July 5---July 11---  146

July 12--July 18  --267

July 19--Jul 25  --- 440

July 26--Aug 1  ---  619

Aug 2---Aug 8  ---  815

Aug 9---Aug 15  --  972

Aug 16--Aug 22--1,040

Aug 23--Aug 29--1,058

Aug 30--Sep 5----- 948

Sep 6--Sep 12---- 1.033

Sep 13--Sep 19---1,055

Sep 20--Sep 26--1,041

Sep 27--Oct 3----   929

Oct 4---Oct 10---- 779

Bergen County was down about 16%

I got my flu shot and my back hurts. I saw my cardiologist today and he says I'll live. I'm supposed to next my permanent teeth later today. 

We hit a piece of metal that had fallen off an overpass Sunday on Rt. 80 and it blew my front driver side tire. That's always exciting at 60 miles per hour. Eventually an NJDOT truck came by and changed my tire. Apparently I was one of a half dozen that were taken out.

Nothing Like Vaccine Misinformation

I saw a video on YouTube from a guy who calls himself Dr. Rick Kelly and claims to represent Novavax. The video compared Covid cases in Jan/Feb and Sep/Oct between low the vaccination states of Idaho and Wyoming and the high vaccinations states of New Hampshire, Connecticut and Maine.

His conclusion basically was that, with the exception of Connecticut, there was no difference in the case numbers between the low and high vaccination states.

He ignored hospitalizations and deaths.

I wouldn't come to too many conclusions using Vermont or even Idaho, Wyoming and Maine for that matter. I'm an engineer with expertise in information analysis and I'll explain why I say that. There are two reasons. The first reason is that Vermont has a very small population and small changes can make big impacts but the second, and far more important reason, is that Vermont never had much of an outbreak. It barely ever hit 200 cases a day. 

Connecticut shows a different story but go to even larger states with high vaccination rates such as Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York to see the differences there (all numbers from Times database). 

The peak 7-day averages between January and September/October for daily cases, hospitalizations and daily deaths are as follows. 

Massachusetts - Jan = 6,363, 2,247, 74 Oct = 2,360, 619, 15 

New Jersey - Jan = 6,480, 3,860, 97 Oct = 2,219, 1,193, 21 

New York - Jan = 15,956, 10,038, 195 Oct = 5,444, 2,876, 41 

New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland all look like Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. So do Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan and California. Texas has about equal numbers in January and October but has slightly lower numbers in October. Florida has much, much worse numbers in October perhaps because its Jan/Feb weather tends to be better than Sep/Oct and more people stay indoors in Sep/Oct in the air conditioning. 

The only thing I can say about Maine is the deaths are much less in Sep/Oct but there doesn't seem to be much difference in cases or hospitalizations.

Two other factors that should be noted but are hard to know how to include in the calculations are January was winter and people spend more time indoors (as noted above this might be the opposite for Florida) and the Delta variant was reportedly much more contagious. So much more contagious that it rapidly became the overwhelming variant in the country. I suspect that the contagion of Delta would dominate and we would have expected to see MORE cases with that variant.

So Dr. Rick Kelly is sort of cherry picking by using small states to arrive at a conclusion that the vaccines don't work.

The Corona Virus, October 5, 2021

 There are currently 44,621,021 reported cases in the US and 717,027 deaths.

US Cases

Dec  28-Jan 3 -- 1,484,497,  7.7%

Jan   4 -Jan 10-- 1,766,398   8.5%

Jan 11 -Jan 17-- 1,559,170    6.9%

Jan 18 -Jan 24-- 1,206,819   5.0%

Jan 25 -Jan 31-- 1,049,667   4.1%

Feb  1 -  Feb  7--    855,743   3.2%

Feb  8 - Feb 14--   645,973   2.4%

Feb 15 - Feb 21--  476,821   1.7%

Feb 22 - Feb 28-- 487,627   1.7%

Mar 1 ---Mar 7  -- 414,986   1.4%

Mar 8 --Mar 14 -- 371,939   1.3%

Mar 15--Mar 21 -- 385,590  1.3%

Mar 22-Mar 28-- 429,180  1.4%

Mar 29-April 4-- 439,617   1.4%

April 5-April 11-- 480,732  1.6

April 12-April 18-500,013  1.6%

April 19-April 25-442,584  1.4%

April 26-May 2-   338,093  1.0%

May 3  --May 9-   280,293  0.9%

May 10--May 16-  227,441   0.7%

May 17--May 23-  175,653   0.5%

May 24--May 30- 138,104   0.4%

June 1 --June 6--   99,209

June 7 -June 13--  86,318

June 14-June 20-- 65,265

June 21-June 27--64,745

June 28-July 4----82,898

July 5---July 11---100,556

July 12--July 18 --145,510

July 19--Jul 25  ---235,732

July 26--Aug 1  ---404,539

Aug 2---Aug 8  ---635,340

Aug 9---Aug 15  --912,812

Aug 16--Aug 22-1,049.409

Aug 23--Aug 29-1,094,413

Aug 30--Sep 5---1,130,566

Sep 6--Sep 12----1,031,425

Sep 13--Sep 19---1,025,166

Sep 20--Sep 26--- 848,948

Sep 27--Oct 3----- 749,121

Another healthy drop. J&J has applied to the FDA for a booster shot.

'New Jersey Cases

Dec  28 -Jan 3 ----30,821   6.7%,   9.9%

Jan    4 -Jan 10 --- 36,012   7.3%, 10.1%

Jan   11 -Jan 17 --- 37,043   7.0%,  8.3%

Jan   18 -Jan 24 -- 29,905   5.3%,  8.7%

Jan   25 -Jan 31 -- 28,539   4.8%,  7.4%

Feb  1 -  Feb  7---   21,470   3.4%,   8.1%

Feb  8 -  Feb 14--- 20,186   3.1%,   6.4%

Feb 15 -  Feb 21--- 17,549   2.6%,   6.2%

Feb 22 - Feb 28--  18,979   2.8%,   6.2%

Mar 1 ---Mar 7  --  19,214   2.7%,    5.3%

Mar 8 --Mar 14  -- 21,112   2.9%,    9.5%

Mar 15--Mar 21  -- 22,939 3.1%,    5.4%

Mar 22-Mar 28  -- 24,483 3.2%,    6.7%

Mar 29-April 4  -- 25,535  3.2%,    7.8%

April 5-April 11  -- 22,045 2.7%,    6.7%

April 12-April 18--21,467  2.6%,    6.6%

April 19-April 25--16,367  1.9%,    5.0%

April 26-May 2--- 10,824  1.2%,    3.8%

May 3--May 10---   5,283  0.6%,    2.0%

May 10-May 16---  2,413   0.3%     1.3%

May 17-May 23---  2,934  0.3%     1.1%

May 24-May 30--  1,620   0.2%     ??%

June 1 --June 6--- 1,400 

June 7 -June 13--  1,177

June 14-June 21-- 1,253

June 22-June 27--1,254

June 28-July 4----1,172

July 5---July 11--- 1,546

July 12--July 18--  2,598

July 19--Jul 25  --- 4.354

July 26--Aug 1  ---  5,832

Aug 2---Aug 8  ---  8,344

Aug 9---Aug 15  --  9,932

Aug 16--Aug 22---10,779

Aug 23--Aug 29---11,691

Aug 30--Sep 5-----11,526

Sep 6---Sep 12---- 12,345

Sep 13--Sep 19---  12,870

Sep 20--Sep 26--- 11,755

Sep 27--Oct 3----- 10,599

New Jersey was down about 10%.

Bergen County Cases

Dec  28 -Jan 3--- 2,717,  6.0% Dashboard New Cases = 2,715

Jan    4 -Jan 10---3,110,  6.4% Dashboard New Cases = 3,126

Jan   11 -Jan 17---3,266,  6.4% Dashboard New Cases = 3,413

Jan   18-Jan 24---2,858,  5.2% Dashboard New Cases =2,999

Jan   25-Jan 31---2,716,  4.7% Dashboard New Cases = 2,876

Feb  1 -  Feb  7--- 2,328,  3.9% Dashboard New Cases = 2,490

Feb  8 - Feb 14---2,085,  3.3% Dashboard New Cases = 2,185

Feb 15 - Feb 21-- 1,934,  3.0% Dashboard New Cases = 1,982

Feb 23 - Feb 22--2,244,  3.4% Dashboard New Cases = 2,335

Mar 1 ---Mar 7 --2,305,  3.3% Dashboard New Cases = 2,341

Mar 8 --Mar 14--2,399,  3.4% Dashboard New Cases = 2,434

Mar 15--Mar 21--2,664,  3.6% Dashboard New Cases = 2,690

Mar 22-Mar 28--2,770,  3.6% Dashboard New Cases = 2,856

Mar 29-April 4-- 2,806,  3.6% Dashboard New Cases =2,930

April 5-April 11-- 2,273,  2.8% Dashboard New Cases =2,474

April 12-April 18-1,902,  2.3% Dashboard New Cases =2,009

April 19-April 25-1,446,  1.9% Dashboard New Cases =1,503

April 26-May 2 --   802,  0.9% Dashboard New Cases =1,001

May 3---May 10 -- 693,  0.8% Dashboard New Cases = 809

May 10--May 16 -- 348,  0.4% Dashboard New Cases = 468

May 17--May 23 -- 246,  0.3% Dashboard New Cases = 329

May 24-May 30 -- 173,   0.2% Dashboard New Cases = 204

June 1 --June 6--   104

June 7 -June 13--   116

June 14-June 21--  123

June 22-June 27-- 147

June 28-July 4---- 152

July 5---July 11---  146

July 12--July 18  --267

July 19--Jul 25  --- 440

July 26--Aug 1  ---  619

Aug 2---Aug 8  ---  815

Aug 9---Aug 15  --  972

Aug 16--Aug 22--1,040

Aug 23--Aug 29--1,058

Aug 30--Sep 5----- 948

Sep 6--Sep 12---- 1.033

Sep 13--Sep 19---1,055

Sep 20--Sep 26--1,041

Sep 27--Oct 3----   929

Bergen County was down to about where it was in early August but still much higher than June.

It's my birthday today! Hard to believe that I made it to 73.

Vaccines Again

I continue to get into these conversation with people who won't get vaccinated.

I hear a lot about "freedom" and "rights" from people that refuse to get vaccinated but very little about obligations and responsibility. If you are part of a community then in addition to rights you also have obligations. One of those obligations is to protect the health and welfare of the community.

I will admit that there is a lot of misinformation out there and misunderstanding about the vaccines, the need for boosters and just about everything else.

The CDC has not done a good job informing people.